Bent v Cimini
In July, I posted an article about the ten battles to watch in training camp,
replete with my predictions (although, officially, I “don't do
predictions”). At about the same time, Rich Cimini presented us with
his “Five Fearless Predictions“. Now, that some time has passed, we are in a position to analyze how well we both did.
Of
course, I am comparing apples with oranges here. Several of the camp
battles I had to take a flyer on, whereas others were more obvious.
Cimini's predictions centered around more general “big picture issues”,
but I shall endeavour to evaluate our respective performances as fairly
as possible. Of course, Cimini is privy to “Insider Information”, so I
shall have to be harsh in my assessment of his work, after all, that's
only fair.
Let's start with me. I swung and missed badly with my
first prediction�Pete Hunter to be the starter at cornerback. However,
I did close with “if the Jets *do* sign Ty Law, you've got your
answer.” That has to be worth half a point.
Next up, I predicted
that Hobson would step up after his disappointing end to last season
and although Brown has played well in preseason (which is a great
sign), Hobson has been excellent and has re-solidified himself as the
starter. So, I got that one (and without any need to cheat).
As
for the defensive tackle position, I fell into a bit of a trap here. In
my efforts to prove I was not making a “classic rookie fan mistake” and
underestimating Tim McGill based on statistical production (in response
to justifiable comments made after my FEAR article,
I decided to show I did rate him, by selecting him as my choice for
Dewayne Robertson's interior line sidekick. In the process, I probably
made a classic rookie prediction-maker mistake. However, I did say all
the way back at the end of the NFLEL season that McGill would battle with Harper for a spot on the roster,
which has proved to be unnervingly accurate and certainly worthy of a
half-point. To add to my defense, the book on the actual job-winner
Tank Reed has always been that he doesn't have the stamina to be a
starter, so I was not the only person to rule that out as a possibility.
The
third running back/short yardage back position is kind of unresolved at
the moment, with B J Askew having been forced to play FB for the last
two weeks and Cedric Houston having been injured, but my prediction,
Houston has had the most success running the ball, including the
winning TD against the Vikings. In fact, he is the only RB to score a
TD in preseason, so he has the edge in this battle in my opinion
(although he did fumble once). Since it's a work in progress, I shall
award myself another half-point. For those keeping score, that's
2-and-a-half so far.
My next prediction was that Chas Gessner
would be the 5th wide receiver. For a while, it looked like he might
be, almost by default, but Harry “Willie Mays Hayes” Williams'
quicker-than-expected return from a knee injury looks to have scuppered
that. You have to admit though, it was looking like a good prediction
until we actually say Chas play in a game.
For the punter's job,
I called the Ben Graham over Micah Knorr debacle, so score one more for
me. I'm really glad they took a chance on this guy. He is surely going
to create some huge turnovers for us. I'm thinking that might win us a
couple of games alone.
Next up was the crucial back-up clipboard
holder role. Brooks Bollinger has been terrible throughout preseason,
but through three games the Jets didn't have enough confidence in Kevin
Eakin to even let him attempt a pass. I had heard noises that they
might give him a chance to unseat Bollinger, but only allowing him one
quarter against the Eagles basically confirms that they view him as a
practice squad member, as I had predicted all year. He has promise
though.
The third TE/long snapper role seems to have been
decided. The result? Both. Dreessen as a TE and Dearth as the long
snapper. Dreessen hasn't been tested as a long snapper in the
preseason. (They even debuted Charles Missant ahead of him), but have
long known that Dearth gives them next to nothing as from the TE
position (although that's still an upgrade over Becht). It looks like
they will burn a spare roster spot and stick with both, which is
probably for the best in the long run. I get another half-a-point
there, then. That's five so far.
My prediction for the role of
“safety cover for when McGraw inevitably gets injured” has obviously
evolved into “starting safety alongside Coleman”. My prediction of
Rhodes has done well, but although the starter is yet to be decided, it
looks like it will either be Rhodes or Celestin. I don't think the Jets
have as much confidence in Rhodes, so he should be the primary cover at
both safety positions. You could probably argue that I am right either
way – either Rhodes is the replacement for McGraw, or he is the third
safety as injury cover. I think scoring a whole point here is pushing
it somewhat, so I shall award myself another half of a point.
The
return man roles have also not yet been decided, but my predictions of
Miller on kickoffs and McCareins on punts seem likely to come to
fruition. I was sceptical of the Jets confidence in Miller to field
punts and it looks like they will go with a more sure handed player
(although it may yet prove to be Cotchery). Close enough. I get one
more mark bringing my total for the 10 predictions to six-and-a-half,
or 65%. That's your target, Rich.
Cimini's first prediction was
that Ty Law would end up with the Jets because both parties would panic
and the Jets would give Law what he wanted in mid-August. Law signed
with the Jets on 10 August, but the actual median point of the month is
the 16th. So, Cimini was, strictly speaking, only ten-sixteenths
accurate. Therefore, he gets (rounding down) 0.6 of a point. I'm not
sure anyone panicked, nor that the Jets gave Law exactly what he
wanted, but in the interest of fairness, I won't discount it any
further.
The next prediction was that John Abraham would report
after the Vikings game, sign his one-year tender and try to get ready
for the season opener. Can't fault him on that one.
The
following prediction was that no-one would bemoan the loss of Paul
Hackett. Hardly going out on a limb there, but in fact Chad Pennington,
while he didn't specifically bemoan the loss of Hackett himself, has
been saying that he is still used to making reads like he used to in
Hackett's system and whilst he has shown every willingness to get used
to the new system, I still think that Cimini deserves to be penalised
half a point, especially given the obviousness of the prediction.
The
next prediction was that Curtis Martin would get exactly 22 preseason
carries. Ha! Completely wrong�it was 21! (That will teach him to be so
specific). Martin also caught 2 passes, as opposed to 5 last year, so
overall his number of touches was actually four less.
Finally,
the fearless Cimini predicted that the Jets will miss Kareem and Ferg.
Personally, I think Jones has been at least as impressive as Fabini and
the DT rotation has worked as well, especially against the run – and
the main concern was that Vilma would be less effective, but he has
been awesome these past three weeks. I don't think they have missed
either yet, although they may do in the weeks to come. Again, this
could go either way so I give Rich another half-mark, which gives him a
total of 3.1 marks out of 5 predictions. 62% – I win!
That was
just a bit of fun. I *may* have been slightly unfair towards Cimini,
but if he wants to argue otherwise, he can write his own column (I'd
love to read that!)
In all seriousness though, Cimini's
predictions were pretty accurate and perhaps we need to pay closer
attention to his scoops over the course of the season. As for my
efforts�.well, I didn't do too badly, did I?
