Tales from the Combine
With the Combine well underway, the rumor mongering (we love it!) around the Jets is picking up and according to old friend Randy Lange, the Jets are actively working with the Texans to trade up to the top spot to get Matt Leinart.
In theory, the deal might makes sense… at least for the Texans. The Texans have a better than average RB in Domanick Davis, and look like they want to hold onto David Carr, at least for a while longer. Add to that a new staff might want to do everything they can to build for the future, and stockpiling picks might be an important strategy, thus using the top pick might be unwise for the Texans.
All the same, what do the Jets need to give up to get the top pick… and more importantly would it really be worth it? Just guessing, but would a top-tier Defensive End and the Jets 2007 1st rounder be enough?
Apparently, Leinart might be getting a bit catty, and is taking umbridge with Jay Cutler's meteoric rise up the boards saying:
“I've been a winner my whole career. That's the most important thing. I just win.”
Leinart's statement is certainly true, but it might have helped to play at the premiere school on the west coast, where Cutler was playing at (let's face it) the perennial laughing stock of the SEC…
Berger and most of the rest of the N.Y. press, triangulates the Leinart rumor and also adds that Chad has responded to the Sarasota, FL media about the anonymous comments of his teammates, saying:
“I'm glad I'm down here and not up there. I've heard my teammates don't want me back.”
Not exactly sure what that means, but there it is…
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I think that the Chad comment was probably said tongue-in-cheek, but that to not mention that fact makes it a better story. He'll know which of his teammates do and don't want him back.
I still think we will struggle to afford a QB at the top end of the draft. Even moreso if there's no cap in 2007, because the bonuses will only be spread over 4 years.
Leinart's winning is the joker he holds over Cutler at the moment and his ability to thrive in a mass media market (which for Cutler is an unknown). He certainly did have it easier than JC though.
If Chad renegotiates his contract down, we could have him, a Patrick Ramsey and either Leinart or Cutler under contract and the three of them would add up to less than what Chad was counting against the cap by himself at the start of the offseason.
I think Houston would be nuts not to explore trade down options, and that the Jets probably would be nuts to pay the going rate for the move, assuming you are talking about a deal similar to the Giants-Chargers swap. But then again, the Giants did what they had to do to secure the quarterback position, and they were able to parlay the savings of not having a first round pick the next year into multiple successful free agent signings. So there is an argument to be made for it.
I'm a big Cutler fan, but I would agree that Leinart should come off the board first, meaning he would be the pick if we went up to #1 overall. Cutler was radically undervalued before the Senior Bowl, but he's probably overvalued now- he's got the best upside, but he's too far away from being a finished product to spend the #1 or #2 pick in the draft on him. Not so for Leinart.
To be honest, I don't understand the incredible hype surrounding Cutler right now. I think he'll be a decent NFL QB, but the scouts are acting as if his monster arm will easily make up for his other (more important) deficiencies. The name of the game for NFL quarterbacks is accuracy and converting third downs, and Cutler's just not that accurate – 59% his senior year, and 58% for his last 3 years combined.
I understand the argument that Jay played on a team that was over-matched in the SEC, but frankly, so did Eli Manning, and he put up much better college credentials than Cutler. (Not to mention that Eli hasn't exactly developed into a pinpoint passer in the pros either.) What concerns me is that Jay finished off his senior year with two great games against the 2 worst teams in the SEC East (9 TD, 0 INT), but until then his senior year line read 57% comp, 13 TD, 9 INT.
Look, maybe JC will be great as a pro. But isn't there at least a decent chance that he's just this year's Workout Warrior – a guy who looks great in the combine and all-star games, but never proves it on the field in games that count? And more importantly, how can the Jets – who need so much help – take that kind of question mark at #4 for huge money?
Good points seanmac. I still have my reservations about Cutler specifically, but I appreciate your point that a potential franchise QB still gives you the best bang-for-the-buck when you're drafting this high.
One of the things that makes this draft fascinating is that you have the Big Three QB's – and then a massive drop to the other QB's. In previous years, if you didn't have a top-5 pick to snag a Manning, McNair, or Palmer, you still had a chance to find a QB you felt great about later in the first round (or even the second). Big Ben, Brees, Plummer, and, oh yeah, Chad – these were all guys picked outside of the top 10, and their respective teams were elated about each of those picks. This wasn't a case of taking a shot in the dark, like with a Brady in Round 6 or a Rattay in Round 7; those guys above were legitimate blue-chip values who landed outside of the top five.
And that's what makes me question picking Cutler. If I thought he had, for argument's sake, a 40% chance of being a franchise QB, then I'd be all for it – as you put it above, the reward would be well worth the risk, because it's the most important, hard-to-fill-through-free-agency position. But I have nowhere near that confidence in JC. So I'm wondering if we wouldn't be better off taking Brick or (please) trading the pick to someone who values Vince, Brick, or Mario more than we do… and then trying to find our franchise QB next year. With or without a top-5 pick.