Audible: Gameplan for the Packers
So the Jets head to Green Bay this weekend to take on the Packers. Think this one is in the bag? The Jets are ranked one notch higher right now in Team Efficiency than the Pack on Football Outsiders. You know my rule of thumb in picking games: if one team is very close to another in team efficiency, I would generally pick whichever team is at home. From a tale of the tape, the Jets have a better offense, worse defense but significantly better special teams unit. It’s my hope that if the game turns into one of field position, the Jets will win based on their special teams play.
So how do you gameplan against a team, who is on short rest with a banged up quarterback?
Difficulty: you can’t use the word “gunslinger” in describing Favre’s play … :D
Filed under: Audible, Main Page
Off the topic….It appears the Start Ledger is reporting that Mangini has decided to remove Kevan Barlow from the RB rotation, with L. Washington and C. Houston getting all the carries.Also it looks like up and coming, NT Rashad Moore has a broken hand. Here’s the link………………………..
http://www.nj.com/jets/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/1164866647256050.xml&coll=1
My problems with these rankings is three-fold:
1) They don’t account for learning. Lumped into that are the first few games where our defense played the run terribly and gave up a lot more points than they are now. If FO ran this for the past 4 games, I bet it would look different.
2) There is no accounting for scheme/preparation/coaching. Look at GB vs. NE. Granted NE is still a better defense no matter how you slice it, but they stifled GB. I think Mangini can do some comparable things with our personnel versus GB’s offense. I think we match up pretty well here, whereas we clearly don’t match up well against a team like JAX.
3) Similar to #1, these numbers are averages. If Chad plays well, Driver is covered well, and the front 7 keep the run contained, I think we win. If Chad stinks, I’m not sure our running game picks the team up. As with all team-wide averages, individual peaks and valleys are not really reflected in these numbers. Our average is mediocre, but out standard deviation is probably more erratic than a team like NE.
in Green Bay’s defense Brett Favre was injured in that game and did not return in the 35-0 blowout vs New England
i agree with prince….
1)contain the run
2)pennington needs to play well
3) dont give up any long plays on defense
i remmeber in 1998 in the AFC championship game we have Dedric Ward and Wayne Chrebet as our starting Wide recievers…just goes to show you dont win on talent alone but on heart also…and the jets have heart…i think we can go 5-0 the rest of the way
Right, their rankings certainly have gaps. But they have been shown to be better predictors of games than won-loss record and other objective factors. They are a useful tool, but FO doesn’t claim they are perfect by any stretch.
Sorry if I came off as being critical of their rankings, I am not. I’m being critical of Bassett’s betting philosophy : )
Call me Mr. Lightning Rod
Bold prediction Andrew, and certainly in all of our collective minds as well, but looking at it just on paper, I think we win a close game. Field position will be huge this Sunday. Can we take advantage of the Packers’ terrible record at home? Will it snow?
One game at a time. This one could be ugly, but if we get the win, who cares?
i check Green Bays weather for sunday… high of 53…so the sun goes down about 4:30pm this time of the year plus Wisconsin in central time so its 3:30pm in Green bay at gametime and 3:00pm is known to be the warmest part of the day so in my analysis:
Gametime Temp: 49-52 degrees ….sorry doctor K No snow this weekend in Green Bay
And no im not a meteorologist just a fan of the weather channel
this game, like last week, will be relatively easy. road wins are never easy, but this one will be as easy as they get. buffalo at home – that game’s going to be scary.
I am still very bitter about our 1994 loss in early November @ Lambeau. That was the game where Rob Moore was mugged on a 4th down pass on the game tying drive attempt – I was in a bar in Tucson and was asked to leave after the noPI call.
Pack cannot stop run, so we need to play action a lot on early downs when they are committed to play the run.
I expect at least 1 bad call for doing something Favre after the call GB got hit with in Q4 Monday – we know it is coming, lets just hope it does not change complexion of game.
D-backs need to be aggressive when Favre throws his few jump balls a game. Do not give up the long ball, even if that means leaving stuff open underneath – Favre will eventually force some stuff down the field.
Question: YES, I am looking ahead. Is it better for us if Buff upsets SD so that they are more ripe for letdown. Or, is it better that they lose so they know their season is over?
My gameplan:
Defense:
1) Stop the running game
2) Continue the delayed blitz, force Favre out of the pocket. He can’t make plays on the run like he used to.
3) Cover the deep routes. Farve isn’t as accurate as he used to be, but he still can make you pay deep.
Offensively:
1) Chad must play well. If he has an off day, we are in trouble.
2) More consistency with the ground game–a 100 yard rushing game would be nice
Special Teams:
1) Nugent needs to build on last week’s success.
2) Everyone else must keep doing what they have been doing. It has been a good year so far for our ST unit.
I formally apologize for egregiously abusing the “5 second rule” but I find it more rude to interrupt someone mid-sentence than to blah blah balh in the blog blog blog.
Anyhow, my point is that I’d rather be the Jets this week than the Giants. Some would argue that this is always the case but all I’m saying is I like our chances and the Giants are nobody’s sweetheart any more.
If the D plays well NYJ win; the offense will be fine in my estimation.
I really feel the D has turned the corner as you would expect with this staff. It took longer than expected but they have been real solid versus better teams than the young mistake prone Pack. That is why the ranking are meaningless in this case, would like to see their ranking for the games since the bye only.
Add to that the late season incentive intangible and this game has the look of a blowout.
I think the opposite, I think they came round quicker than expected.
No way am I expecting a blowout though, but I’d like nothing more.