TJB Chat Hijack: ESPN 6/5 & 6/7
Another chat hijack courtesy of ESPN and help from zenlaw.
Jake, NC: Over or under 10 wins for the Jets this year?Under. Schedule is just tough enough. I see 9-7 or 8-8.
Mike Wilkening:
Brian Bassett: (TJB): More often than not, I am a glass half empty guy (exclude lead up to 2005 season, please). I know it doesn’t mean everything, but the Jets had the second largest jump in terms of strength of schedule from last season. With notably tougher opponents, more gamefilm available of Mangini & B-Schott’s tendencies, they are going to have to work even harder. The revamped D-Line is untested and the O-Line could use one or two more solid players … I have to take the under.
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Justin (Queens, NY): KC, why are football pudits everywhere predicting a regression for the Jets? They’ve shored up their biggest needs (RB and CB) and haven’t lost any major players. Do they not believe in the Mangenius?- Schedule be damned.
Brian Bassett: (TJB): Honestly, the more I think about this question, the more it bugs me. It’s easy to say “schedule be damned,” but it’s a reality. More often than not, the “tailing off” is due to a tougher schedule. New coaches generally aren’t relieving a coach who just went 12-4. So when a coach brings the club up, the schedule adjusts, so the record is harder to maintain. I’m not saying that the Jets can’t get back to 10-6, but there’s a reason that the playoff landscape is different every year. Revis might be good, but you can’t expect him to be a five year vet in his first start, it’s unlrealistic.
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Uncle Leo (Queens, NY): Piggybacking an earlier question, Is it your contention that coaches will have better gameplan to beat Mangini? What is your prediction fro the Jets?
Brian Bassett: (TJB): The Jets did use tricks and gadgets, because they needed every advantage they could get. In the last game against the Patriots, I loved the milling around linebackers, but honestly, did it do any good? I agree that playing football is paramount, and some of the tricks ended up blowing up (onside kick against the Bears, anyone?) As much as I love what B-Schott did last year, by the end of the season it was easy even for me to spot pre-snap when a reverse was coming. The difference of adding a back like Thomas Jones could be profound, what Schottenheimer did with no real threat in the backfield was impressive, let’s hope it widens his arsenal.
I think the Jets are going to have a tough haul to get back to 10-6.
Filed under: Main Page, Opinion/Bassett
Everyone keeps bringing it up – so let’s look at the schedule and play the old predict the record game (you know, because everyone was so accurate last year!)
Division: 3-3 is not unreasonable. Usually breaks out close to that each year. Even if they get swept by NE (ugh!), I think 3-1 vs. a still-rebuilding Miami and untested Buffalo is possible.
NFC East: Given the AFC dominance over the NFC, I don’t think 3-1 is out of the question. NYG, Wash and Dallas are all beatable IMO. Philly may be tough, but they have them at the Meadowlands — then again, I can see beating Philly and losing to Dallas on T-Day (always a tough game for the road team).
So that’s 6-4 with Pittsburgh (at home), Baltimore (road), Cincy (road), Cleveland (home), Tennessee (road) and KC (home). Again, I don’t think 3-3 is unreasonable here, which gets them to 9-7 after a quick look.
Now we all know that some teams will be better than advertised and some will be worse, plus who knows what injuries occur (Palmer goes down again, Cincy is not so tough, ditto Vince Young or Big Ben, etc. etc.), but with an improved running game, a second year in Mangini’s systems, continuity with coordinators on both sides of the ball and maybe some contributions from new additions (Bowens, Revis, Harris, etc.), I don’t foresee a real slip backward. With some luck and good health, I really do think 10-6 is very possible again.
I also think that the beginning of their schedule is tough — NE, Baltimore, Miami, at Buffalo — so a slow start is a concern. I don’t doubt that’s why Mangini has “his foot to the gas pedal” already.
schedule schmedule. seriously. everyone went through last year’s schedule and predicted 4-12 or 6-10 for us. we have no idea which teams will be good this year until the end. just look at the jets – everyone thought they would be a soft spot on their schedule. i can guarantee anyone who was predicting their team’s record put a W next to the Jets. i won’t bog down the blog with my detailed theory on using schedule strength to predict records but it’s extremely flawed.
bassett, you disappoint me bud. you are missing the bigger picture here. the jets’ success last year wasn’t predicated on trick plays. the foundation of their success was open competition, focus and execution. and mangini continues to raise the bar — and with improved talent to boot. i love the fact that people are bearish on the jets’ chances this year. it’s going to give me another chance to cash in on the over wins.
jeff i
While I do not see 12-4 on the horizon, matching last years 10 wins is very likely.
The jump in schedule percentage is mostly due to adding mediocre teams over bad teams. And most if not all of those mediocre teams from last year have had bad offseasons (PIT,CIN,NYG, DAL,TN, KC,MIA). Remember it is the end of year SOS numbers that matter, not the percentages based on prior years.
After NE, which team on their schedule is arguably stronger this year?
The are ranked 10th on the ESPN power rankings, dropping from a season ending 7th despite losing no one. They play only 6 teams ranked ahead of them, so if they win the games they are supposed to win, as they did last year, they should win 10 games.
The one thing I know is the Jets are a better team now than ended the season, and I am just not that afraid of the schedule, 2006 records be damned!
Well, they don’t come any more pessimistic than me, but I still think last year’s schedule isn’t markedly tougher than this year’s. We do have a horrible start though and may head to week three in a “must win or you dig yourself a big hole” situation.
There’s a big run of winnable games in the middle of the season, so if we peak then, a good record may be possible. We’ll need a series of streaking posts by Prince again to get there (or am I just looking for an excuse to see some dude’s butt again?)
However, 6-2 on the road isn’t likely to happen again, so we have to find a way to win the close home games against good teams that we couldn’t pull out last year (vs Chi, Indy and NE).
It’s tough for me to picture the jets losing more than 7 games. One thing to note about the schedule is the lack of substantial travel…i think other than miami, the only notable travel time is dallas. There’s a stretch around the bye from the Giants game to Pittsburgh that they only travel one time in 7 weeks (Cincy). These guys will be sharp, their clocks wont be screwy from travel, in their own lockers, etc…
I’m not particularly afraid of Dallas, Wash, KC, Cleveland, Giants, and Pittsburgh. Philly’s beatable, esp with our enhanced run game, and miami and buffalo have a ton of question marks on their rosters. Cincy will be a force, so will Baltimore, and I think Tennessee is going to cause some problems. How we stack up against NE is going to be the big one, but I see us hitting that 10-win mark.
jeff i
I agree with your assessment of what made the Jets a good team. Meritocracy, and players that fit a model along with good coaching were the unsexy reasons to their success. I was riffing off Joyner, but I agree, I think it’s an unfair assessment of the team. They did a fair amount of “just playing” themselves, but I think that the coaches will take whatever advantage they can. If gadgets or whatever become a disadvantage, I don’t think they will do it just to do it.
bassett – glad to hear you still have some sense in you. ;) seriously, though. those “gadget” plays were calculated risks. mangini believes in taking calculated risks and why shouldn’t he? when i think about the debacle know as the herman edwards era, the one game that sticks out in my mind is when we played baltimore with bollinger under centera and herm ran on 1st and 2nd down and threw on 3rd. he played it safe but feed right into the inevitable ouctome. he never put bollinger in a good passing situation and basically layed the blame on having a 3rd string QB in there – he hung the guy out to dry. a good coach would have practiced plays with play action fakes the whole week and started the game off with 5 play action fakes and put the defense on its heels.
unfortunately, too many people are focused on the jets’ weaknesses once again this year. the same thing happened last year. no team in the this league is perfect. leberfeld highlighted that before last season (saying the jets’ weaknesses were being overblown) and was 100% correct.
let’s look back on last season and think about one thing that everyone takes for granted. i can count on 2 fingers the number of strategic in-game decisions or blunders that mangini (time outs, etc…) made last year. h*ll, herm would make that many in one quarter.
last year was not a fluke. while ultimate records are hard to predict, the jets will continue to be competitive this year and will be one of the top teams in the league. the difference between 11-5 and 9-7 could be two plays going your way so it’s hard to argue with anyone’s predictions. but anyone that is predicting a step back in terms of competitiveness is just dead wrong.
jeff i
thanks jeff, the hardest thing about writing this blog is taking the 1000 thoughts about any given topic, and somehow encapsulating them in a way that make sense. all the while, not getting fired at my real job, sleeping a little and not driving my wife to the divorce lawyer … :D
i hear you bassett. i don’t envy your job but you put out a great product so it’s worth the effort.
have a good weekend.
jeff i
The Jets record could have been even better last year with a couple of calls their way. I’d say that makes them better than 80% of all teams in the league. They fought the Pats tooth and nail in game one losing by a TD, as well as Bears but couldn’t score and Colts lost by FG…they proved they can win those games even if they didn’t and with a rookie coach and line to boot. I don’t care what team you talk about, competing against the the top 3 teams in the league is paramount to making players “buy into” a system. I think the team is on board but what needs to happen now is to stop the run. Can’t lose to Ruben Droughns and the like again. Improving run stopping will improve the record. Likewise T Jones will help in those close games. I said 8-8 preseason last year but this year I think 10-6 is a better possibility than last year. It is hard to win no matter who you play…it is about the team not the schedule. Spending time being afraid of the schedule is something that Mangenius doesn’t waste his or the team’s time on.
Regarding trick plays, they got frustrating because often they seemed without purpose, but upon reflection they were used to determine what the opponent’s reaction/response would be. Trick plays don’t win but one trick play can win a game here and there. If that is the difference between the playoffs and fishing in the offseason let them slip the whoopie cushion wherever they want. Or the can of snakes, or fake doogie poo, or my favorite naked lady pen.
I glad to hear my sentiments expressed by everybody above me here. Every so often this spring, I get an insight into the Jets coaches thinking. Reviewing all last year and determining what worked, what didn’t, and, most of all, why, was the latest. Every team we played knew we couldn’t run. And we still found a way to win. What would you say they are thinking this year? The media can underrate the Jets, they’re so in man-love with the Patriots, I can’t wait for that surprised look on their faces. Bring them on, 10-6 is no sweat.
Just to throw in my own 2 cents…
First of all, I think everyone would agree that the Jets will most likely be a very competitive team this year, maybe even more than last year.
Looking back at last year. I think we can say the Jets struggled for a number of reasons:
1. They had an entirely new coaching staff from top to bottom
2. They introduced totally new schemes on offense and defense
3. Almost half the players were new including rookies
4. They lacked talent at certain key positions
Now let’s consider how much better this team will be because of continuity:
- The coaches will know better how to coach the players, design the plays and actually call the best plays to fit their talent.
- The players will better understand how to run the offensive and defensive schemes.
- The players techniques will be better.
- Communication between players and coaches will be better.
- Last years rookies will be better.
There may be some others, but I think you get the idea. Continuity will bring a big, maybe a very big, upside to the Jets this year.
And I don’t think you can over-rate continuity. Players talk about it all the time.
The real advantage of continuity, I believe, is that in a close competitive game the team that is the “tighter” unit, that really “gels”, will have the greater advantage to win, even over a more talented roster.
And if you add to that a coaching staff that really understands its players and how to put them in the best position to make plays i think you could have a formula for winning alot of games.
Still it’s hard to know how far to take this continuity thing with the Jets. There is certainly a nice “karma” coming out of Jets camp.
With all the excitement of the players and the team’s hard work its hard not to get caught up in the optimism for a winning season, even if they don’t have the most talented roster.
The schedule is tougher ON PAPER. Last year, every team we were scheduled to play had us down as a W pre-season. They were wrong 10 of 16 times.
There is a lot to be said that the core of our team is the same. Year 2 in this system should prove very fruitful on the defensive side of the ball. Have we all forgotten that year 2 in NE, EM was there when they won the Super Bowl?
The one thing that concerns me are injuries – just because we were so lucky in that area last season.
RJ: Only Jets fans will still think we might not be better! Years of suffering will not easily be replaced by the certainty of the Patriots. Having them be both the last game we played last year AND the first team we play this year means LOTS of time to stew and think and plan and prepare by both the coaches and the players. I think the rest of the football nation will get a wakeup call! I, for one, can’t wait!
Addendum to my post above, according to the Schrager power ranking in below blog, Jets (ranked 9th overall, 7th in powerful AFC) play only three games against higher ranked team, NE twice and BAL.
So, if this ranking is more accurate, which at first glance it seems to be, and the Jets continue the trend of beating the teams they are supposed to beat, they would be 13-3.
toon – good post but two comments on the injury “luck” you cited. first, part of the credit needs to go to mangini preparing the team physically for the season. two years ago it was a disgrace the shape the team was in, which was why they got rocked at KC and everyone dropped like flies. second, we weren’t as lucky in the injury area as you think – it’s just that mangini doesn’t use injuries as an excuse so they are not as much on the radar as under herm. think about it. we lost curtis (starting RB), trey teague (starting center), david barrett (starting DB), tim dwight…and a few others i’m sure i’m missing. clearly it wasn’t the debacle of the year before but you can’t discount losing your starting center. give all the credit in the world for mangold for stepping up but he didn’t do it alone – the coaches deserve credit too.
great point on the coaching staff deserving credit Jeff – definitely agree there. I also agree that if guys get hurt, this coaching staff is not going to make ecuses – instead, they will tweak game plans to fit the strengths of the players who will be on teh field.