Left Coast Investments, Inc. – Week 4
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Week 3 was a huge week for LCII as instead of getting whacked, a tally of +.7 units was generated thanks to a 4-3-3 week, Cannot remember ever having 3 pushes in 1 week. Deficit has been trimmed to 12.1 Schroys. Onto Week 4
Balt @ Clev: Favorite Game of the Year so far. Ravens are night & day in terms of home/road. Their D is still given as much respect as the 2000 team, and it is not even close. Would the 2000 team have let 2 teams with suspect offensive lines laucnh furious 4th quarter rallies? 3 Units on Browns + points & 2 Units with Money Line.
Chi @ Det: Safe & logical play is to lay off as their lots of variables – Griese replacing Rexy, Bears D banged up, Det D looking like an expansion team last week. Have always been a home dog kind of guy when I think I have the better OL, and Det’s line looks a whole lot better than Chi right now. Det with money line for 1 unit.
GB @ Minn: This game is in Webster’s next to “TRAP.” Media is gushing over GB & Favre, and the boys in the Desert make the line 2? They are begging you to play Pack. Favre has a poor history in this building. Minn with money line for 1 unit.
Sea @ SF: Normally I would be leery of Sea only giving 2, but SF was a trendy sleeper team pre-season and Seattle has already blown a winnable game on road @ AZ 2 weeks ago. Think Seattle’s ball controll offense will keep Niner D on field too long. Seahawks for 1 unit.
Pitt @ AZ: Pitt cannot possibly be as good as they have played. Whisenhunt/Grimm knowledge of Steeler personnel’s strengths & weaknesses should give AZ an intagible edge. Like the outright upset here. AZ with points for 2 units. AZ money line for 1 unit.
NE @ Cincy (Monday): Cannot really see Bengals winning outright – so I cannot play a dog only getting 7.5. Can see NE winning by 30, but would not surprise me if Bengals hang around 10-14 points down all game – which means an oh by the way TD by Cincy kills the cover. Cincy D has so many holes that NE is going to shred them. Would really love the Over, but there is always a chance I am wrong about Cincy hanging around and NE goes ball control. That will keep the OVER at a 1 Unit play.
Hope I am costing myself $ by not playing JETS – just have a hard time laying points at a venue that has been a historical snakepit for us.
Filed under: Main Page
My picks have turned into a what not to do forum, sort of like Hondo in the NY Post.
Stubborness is a virtue so will not give up.
Record to date 6-9-3, -9 units:
Best Bets (3 units)
Over 53.5 Pats-Bengals.
I will take a wild stab and predict Pats score 38 vs bad defense, subtraction mean Bengals need to score only 16 for the over. Can do.
Jets -3.5 over Jills
Only afraid of this venue in December, Jets are simply better.
Over 37.5 JETS-Jills.
Jets may cover this alone, but even if they somehow fail to score 30 you know they will let the Bills rally late. Two of the worst statistical defenses in football, this appears a trap also, but one I can not resist.
Next Best (2 units)
AFC moves to 4 over .500 vs. NFC
Texan – 3 over Falcons
HOU d is for real, ATL is really bad.
Pit -6 AZ
Rejuvenated PIT continues to bounce back from Super Bowl Hangover, steamrolls Leinart back to the bench for good.
Others (1 unit)
MIN + 1 over GB, back to reality, Favre due for 3 INT game and Vegas knows it.
SF +2 over SEA, if I picked SF to win division, must like them here.
Wayne – I had Houston listed and then backed off using the “Falcons will have to cover eventually logic” – which is actually illogical, as gambling is a series of streaks.
Was actually lucky to get 3 pushes last week on JETS, KC, Sea – couple of my buddies gave 3.5 in 2 of those games and 1 friend gave 3.5 in all 3
Toon, the home dog thing worries me with ATL and with PIT, otherwise they would be best bets.
Sticking with Jets and over today, that’s all.
Monday will load up on the over like everyone in the world.
How high can that line go? Doubt I can get 55.
Smells like a trap, need to check the weather in CIN.
Wayne – finally had a huge day yesterday, although a lot of the wind was taken out of my sails due to JETS losing. If Over comes in tonight, we get into the Black for the Season (current deficit = -.4)