Couple More Thoughts on 2007
Here’s a couple more threads that are rattling around my head coming out of the loss.
Mangini’s used the phrase that he will play the guy that gives the Jets a “better chance to win.” I understand that Clemens signals a larger change than just trying to win this year. To win though, the best teams in the league usually have two stats in common, third down percentage where the Jets are at 51.5% (2nd) and giveaway/takeaway where the Jets notch a -2 (26th). Looking at the giveaways … the Jets don’t have a single fumble, all seven giveaways are interceptions, and Pennington has five. Five isn’t bad … but it isn’t great either. Couple that with the fact that the Jets are just coming around in terms of creating turnovers, and it hasn’t helped cover any of the QBs interceptions for much of what we’ve seen so far this season. Either way, if the Jets pull Pennington, that 3rd down completion number will probably go down, but who’s to say the interceptions will?
Everyone’s calling for Clemens, OK fine. But remember what he saw in that Baltimore game. A defense sitting back and playing prevent defense. Not every team will be so polite to the youngster.
Mangini went for it on fourth down last year more than he seems to be this year, or at least it seems people are killing him for it more … why the change? What reason would keep him from going? I think it’s because he knows his defense is terrible and would basically giving the opponent a very short field to work with … it’s hard enough for the Jets to stop a team from scoring even when they are pinned inside their own 10 yard line, so it’s more about risk protection.
Talking to a friend about strengh of schedule once, he said to me that “really good teams stay good, regardless of the schedule while decent teams fluctuate with their schedule.” Look at trend of the Jets since the Parcells era began.
2007 1-4 Mangini
2006 10-6 Mangini
2005 4-12 Edwards
2004 10-6 Edwards
2003 6-10 Edwards
2002 9-7 Edwards
2001 10-6 Edwards
2000 9-7 Groh
1999 8-8 Parcells
1998 12-4 Parcells
1997 9-7 Parcells
This team is always fluctuating, one year in the hunt, the next year out and floundering, back forth, back forth. My hope is that whatever Mangini is doing, he’s doing for the long term, not just one year bursts.
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Hey Bassett,
You allude to it early in your post, but its worth repeating the Clemens hype should be tempered as such:
If Mangini et al. still think there is a chance in hell of a post-season run (there isn’t) then they have to choose the QB that gives them the best chance to win. I would have no problem with Chad being the choice there.
However, if the season is truly over (it is, in my opinion) than there is no excuse to do everything possible to prepare the players on this team who are likely to play a major role next year as much as possible. In a previous post, I said that Clemens should see action in between 6-10 games this year once the playoffs are off the table. I believe that this is the right number of games, not necessarily as starts, but certainly to give the kid a comfort level against prevent and non-prevent defenses alike.
Seanmac has repeatedly said that a change at QB will not fix a historically bad defense (he’s right) but with nothing to lose we have to prepare for next season and that includes preparing for a training camp position battle at the QB spot.
If they put in clemens its not because he’s better than chad, its because we need to, at some point, see if he can be the starting QB.
i am with you on the 4th down issue. it’s hard to go for it at midfield when you know your defense can’t stop the run.
Seanmac does not see the big picture here. To argue for Chad to continue as starter is ludicrous.
Chad’s tenure with this team is over, if not this week then three weeks from now.
There are at least 5 starting QB’s injured for teams with better records than the Jets right now. The trading deadline has not passed. This is the last time to get something for Chad.
The best thing for this team long term is to trade Chad now, and find out whethar Clemens can be the QB of the future.
NOW, not three weeks from now.
And guess what, if they get a first day draft pick in return they can use it to try to repair that historically bad defense.
At least starting Clemens would jump start the run offense which has been stagnant due to Chads limitations. Also remember, less than half a season wont give us a good measure of how good Clemens is and if we should address the issue in the draft. So its definitely Clemens time right now and not after the bye week.
I’ll put where I’m coming from in context, as it probably addresses why I have such a different take on things than many of the other posters. As badly as things are going, I don’t think the roster is in need of a massive overhaul. The Jets have a lot of players who would be good if they were in their proper roles, and that includes some of the perennial whipping boys. David Barrett would be a terrific corner in New England. So would Andre Dyson. They are players with limitations but also with strengths that you can build a scheme around, so long as you have a few elite players that can cause significant problems for the other team. It the Jets had Shawn Merriman and Jamal Williams, their defense would be better than San Diego’s, because they have personnel that is as good or better at most of the other spots. But because the team doesn’t have those difference makers on defense, the competence of the rest of the personnel is basically wasted. The offense is in much the same boat. So I don’t think the team is necessarily far away, and I think they are more likely to be a championship contender next year or the year after with Chad than with Kellen Clemens.
That said, a few point:
1) There is no reason why Clemens needs to play now in order to prepare him to play next year. Phillip Rivers sat on the bench for three years and came in and played at a high level immediately. So did Chad, for that matter. The quarterbacks in Clemens’ class who got significant playing time last year are all struggling this year- Leinart, Young, Cutler- pretty much across the board. So that’s an iffy argument.
2) There is zero reason to think that Clemens will improve the run game. The run game doesn’t work because the offensive line is not a good run blocking line. That’s really the crux of the matter. The team fielded the best running attack in the league in 2004 with Chad playing with one arm hanging by a thread. The run game deteriorated because there is no longer any Mawae, Fabini, McKenzie or Kendall (not ot mention no Curtis Martin or Lamont Jordan). The ground personnel has gotten anywhere from worse to radically worse at all those spots. The idea that Clemens does anything to change that is fantasy.
McKenzie is the biggest loss off of that list SeanMac. The right side of the line is not effective in the run-game. Another problem with this line is Mangold has not played up to last years standards, be it because of who’e next to him or not. This team needs upgrades at quite a few positions, lets just hope some can be addressed in FA and others through the draft. By the way, I believe the Jets neglected to pay Kendall because they perceived other weaknesses in training camp, most notably on the defnsive side of the ball. I do not think an average 34 year-old guard makes the difference on this team.
Jets need upgrades on the o-line (1-2 spots), LB (especially OLB) and NT (sorry Dewayne, but you’re too small to be as effective as they need). As for Vilma, he’ll never be successful in the 3-4 no matter who they have on the DL. He needs to go and we should see what we can get for him.
If this season goes down the tube, then Clemens should be allowed to start to see what we have in him. I see many players being traded, etc. Robertson seems that he can go for a 3rd rounder at this point even a 2nd rounder. He is a great pass-rushing DT. He sucks at the 3-4. We need a force at OLB maybe a Quentin Groves in the draft, if he turns out into a player the caliber of Merriman or Ware, we are set. A NT is the #1 concern for a 3-4, we need one. I agree with Ilan, McKenzie was let go, and it was a bad move by Bradway/Edwards. When you have a good, and young player. You resign him ASAP!!
I’ve been touting Groves for a while. As for other prospects, Casper or Jasper Brinkley (a I always get them mixed up) the MLB for the Gamecocks is out for the season. He is a 250-60 pound ILB with speed. He was projected late 1st round before the injury, so if he falls he’d be a real nice addition to the LB corps with a second/third rounder. This is all speculation, but I enjoy it.
It’s Jasper…but he’s going to be back at SC next year. He’s very high on my list too.
The two non playoff years under Edwards were noticeable but it was because of injuries as was Parcells last year as HC. Injuries are always a major reason for teams having up, then down years.
Where are the significant injuries under Mangini this year? None, so Mangini supporters can’t even claim the injury excuse, its simply bad coaching and bad evaluations of free agents and draft picks.
Patriots:
2001: 11-5
2002: 9-7
2003: 14-2
2004: 14-2
2005: 10-6
2006: 12-4
2007: 5-0
Ilan,
I would love to see D-rob at DE in this scheme- he would be a monster, and would help us go from being undersized along the defensive line to being very stout. So bringing in a NT in the mold of a Jamal Williams or a Haloti Ngata would fix two holes at once, and would also go a long way towards making Vilma viable on the inside again. (I don’t doubt that Robertson and Vilma can work well in this scheme, given the proper support, but I do doubt that their agents will be amenable to signing them here rather than going on the open market, as each player would make substantially more playing for a Tampa-2 team.) They also need a legitimate edge rusher, but fortunately colleges are very good at churning out that type of hybrid DE/OLB, so there should be quite a few available. With those two moves, I think the defense would improve radically, as the rest of the personnel really isn’t that bad.
The same goes for the offense, honestly. I would like to see a slot receiver (maybe Stuckey), and a true #1 receiver capable of gaining separation to complement Cotchery, but they can get by without those things. What they can’t get by with is this offensive line. Clement needs to be replaced, and either Clarke or Moore needs to go as well (you can have one weak link on an OL, but not two).
Again, the team is not that far away, certainly not as far away as their current performance would make you think. That’s why it’s silly to ring the alarm and start getting rid of players left and right.
D. Rob at DE is an intriguing idea as he is young and talented, but obviously not functioning well at the NT.
Have we seen the Jets run a 3-4 scheme with Pouha at the NT and Robertson at one of the DE spots?
Hey guys,
Deal or No Deal ???
Let me know what you think about the What-If? scenario below.
Assume the Jets lose this week and fall to 1-5. (not trying to jinx the team — just curious about what you guys think).
Then assume a non-AFC East team with a draft position that will likely fall around #8-to-#12 calls and offers the Jets a 3rd round pick in 2008 for Vilma do you take the deal?
What about D-Rob?
What about Ellis?
What about Pennington?
Note that the salary cap impact for 2008 is expected to be as follows:
Vilma – $2.6M
D Rob – $8.9M
Ellis – $6.4M
Pennington – $7.8M
Source:
http://www.wissearch.net/Jets/Default.aspx?Year=2008
What if it were a Late 2nd rounder (#26 position) would that change the trade-him or keep-him calculus?