Daily Links: Smith & McCareins
- Smith’s role is increasing while McCareins is decreasing.
- George Willis takes a look at the numbers.
- A look at what’s not firing right for Bryan Thomas.
- Can the Jets get their pass rush going this weekend?
- Fox grades the O-Lines in the league.
- Tom talks throwbacks, and the Graham Rocca matchup.
- Lange has noted a more physical presense in the locker room lately.
- Bullock asks if this is Chad’s last chance?
9 Responses to Daily Links: Smith & McCareins
-
wayne says:
Sean , in response to your 11:19 post directed to my comments.
I am comparing pre rotator cuff Chad to post rotator cuff Chad.
I have watched every one of Chads games since he has been an NFL QB. When I write that he has “just lost it”, I truly believe that.
I do not watch Drew Brees regularly and have no idea if he too has just lost it, nor honestly do I care. Brees’ stats were outstanding last year, Chads were not, so I would give him more than 5 games before making that statement.
Since his return, Chad no longer making the excellent decisions that defined him, and he HAS lost something off his throws. His high INT rate is alarming. He has lost it.
I understand nothing happens in a vacuum, but his performance this year has nothing to do with what is happening around him.
In fact, it is just as arguable that the lack of running game is due to his lack of arm strength as vice versa.
The only way to find out is to play a different QB.
-
Bent says: I would at least partially attribute Chad’s increased interception rate on the fact that they always used to settle for the field goal under Herm, rather than risk a turnover by challenging the defense.
He is also throw far more than he did in those days (nearly 40 attempts per game instead of less than 30)…maybe he just tires out?
-
seanmac says:
Well, if the coaching staff determines that Clemens will give them a better chance to win games, that’s what they’ll do. Until then, Chad is the guy. Fans are continually ready to throw in the towel after five weeks, but I tend to side with Bill Parcells on the issue- you need to have a culture of competence, and you need guys who can hold the fort while you put your team together, otherwise you never get a chance to get off the ground. The reality is that this team is rebuilding from a 4-12 season, and that last year’s 10-6 record was largely a fluke. Pulling players who are performing competently and replacing them with young guys just to see what happens is what the Rich Kotites of the world do. (Vance Johnson, anyone? Or how about that LT who ended Boomer’s tenure with the team. His name is eluding me- Everitt Mc-something. He was a young, talented guy, too.) Fans play for draft picks, but the coaching staff will be much happier with 7-9 than 3-13, as the latter puts their control over the organization into question and makes it that much tougher to go forward.
-
Bent says:
When we went 12-4 in 1998, we went into week seven with two wins.
I’m just sayin’…
-
True, although the game-by-game performance hasn’t necessarily been comparable. For those who are interested, here are the DVOA splits for 98, for 02 (another slow start year) and for this year:
98
Game One: Total: -3.9% Off: 12.1% Def: 10.1% ST -5.8%
Game Two: Total: -68.8% Off: -31.6% Def: 19.7% ST -17.4%
Game Three: Total: 55.6% Off: 27.5% Def: -24.6% ST: 3.5%
Game Four: Total: 77.9% Off: 27.6% Def: -52.5% ST -2.1%
Game Five: Total -54.0% Off: -52.9% Def: 10.7% ST: 9.6%02
Game One: Total: 35.4% Off: 19.3% Def: 3.9% ST: 20.1%
Game Two: Total: -59.6% Off: -38.9% Def: 24.9% ST: 4.3%
Game Three: Total -64.7% Off: -40.2% Def 31.1% ST: 6.5%
Game Four: Total: -79.0% Off: -34.1% Def: 55.1% ST: 10.1%
Game Five: Total: -10.1% Off: 23.0% Def: 28.2% ST: -5.0%07
Game One: Total: -66.0% Off: -2.5% Def: 42.4% ST: -21.1%
Game Two: Total: -58.2% Off: -29.7% Def: 23.4% ST: -5.2%
Game Three: Total: 4.8% Off: 23.1% Def: 41.3% ST: 23.1%
Game Four: Total: -27.4% Off: 5.2% Def: 26.8% ST: -5.8%
Game Five: Total: -19.2% Off: -32.4% Def: 11.5% ST: 24.7%It’s an interesting set of lines, and they probably do the best job of arguing for a QB switch you could make, as you can clearly see the dividing point where the starter was taken out. In ’98, Vinny came in after the second game. Not only did the offense explode, but the defense played two monster games to go along with the new offense. The team then failed to show up at all in week six against the Rams. In ’02, after a good game in week one built in no small part on Chad Morton’s returns, the team was absolutely brutal. They were significantly worse than they’ve been this year. Pennington came in against Jacksonville, which was when the team bottomed out. The offense immediately improved, and the defense descended from otherworldly bad to merely awful.
So what does this year’s readout look like? Well, what stands out is that they haven’t played really well in any game. They’ve been as bad as the 98 and 02 squads when those teams were stinking it up, but they haven’t had any really quality showings to offset those. The offense has been really bad in two games- Baltimore and last week against the Giants. The special teams have alternated between being bad and being tremendous, and the defense has been awful throughout. I suppose the silver lining would be that the defense was merely run-of-the-mill bad against the Giants, so maybe they’re trending up.
-
I would agree with you Seanmac if KC was just a nobody, but he was a second round pick with almost 4 full years under his belt in a quality NCAA conferance. He was one of the leading passers in the nation at this time of his unfortunate injury.
He is supposed to be the QB of the future, the future is now. Time to get him the reps he needs to acclerate his progress.
I guess the best example I can give is that if Ratliff and Tui were the back ups, I would stay with Chad.
Cutler, Young, Romo, Leinart, Campbell were all given shots last year right around this point in the season.
For the most part their teams have not regressed but rather in most cases have better records this year than at the same point in 2006. Clemens resume’ is not all that different than those guys.
I read where WFAN’s Mike Francesca mentioned the option of trading Chad in season, as I have been pushing. Glad to see someone other else sees the merits of at least considering this out of the box type move.
-
QB Performance through week 5:
Cutler: DPAR 18.6 DVOA 13.1%
Campbell: DPAR 17.3 DVOA 21.6%
Pennington: DPAR 16.1 DVOA 17.5%
Leinart: DPAR 5.1 DVOA -1.9%
Young: DPAR -4.5 DVOA -23.1%
Clemens: DPAR -4.6 DVOA -34.6%That’s why it’s important to look at actual performance rather than how a given team is doing when determining who merits the credit for it. Leinart was struggling mightily before he got hurt, and the Cardinals were playing much better under Warner, whose DVOA of 55.4% is 4th in the league. Young has been absolutely terrible- the only players who have had less value at the QB position have been Tavaris Jackson, Josh McCown, Drew Brees, JP Losman, Rex Grossman, Trent Dilfer, and our own Kellen Clemens. Cutler and Campbell have been playing at an almost identical level to Chad Pennington- their numbers are all grouped right together. So the best we are talking about would be getting Clemens to play less like he played against Baltimore and more like Cutler and Campbell…which is to say, more like Chad Pennington.
Romo wasn’t a second year player (neither was Campbell, for that matter).
Meanwhile, the track record of guys who have sat for 2+ seasons and then come in an contributed is quite good. So there’s no need to rush into 4-12 just to get Clemens some reps.
-
sjfalcon2001 says:
Off topic, but did anyone else notice that Vinny Testaverde cleaned off the mothballs and may be starting for Carolina this week? Carr is listed as a game time decision, so if he can’t go, Testaverde starts:
Despite believing that the time for analyzing stats is past, and the time to see what they have in Clemense is now, I must reply to Seans argument that Chad’s stats “are not bad”.
In his last 23 starts he has as 25/24 TD/INt ratio. That is bad.
This year, he is LAST in the league in yards per attempt, despite having the second best completion percentage. Think about that for a minute and you realize how bad that stat is. Remember, when another QB has an incompletion it counts as ZERO. Yet Chad still has the lowest average.
Before blaming the offensive line, there are 16 QB’s that have been sacked more than his total of 7 sacks. 4 of those sacks came in week one, he has been sacked only once in the last 3 weeks.
His INT’s last week had nothing to do with pass protection or lack of a running game or arm strength. They were bad decisions. Balls that should never have been thrown.
Chad is like Tom Glavine, he needs to be perfect. He has not been for three years now.
I WAS a Chad aplogist. No more. IF he was on the right team with a great defense he could have won a Super Bowl, but since his injury he simply is not the same.
Since he still has defenders, he should be traded ASAP to someone who buys into Seanmac’s or Sharpe’s arguments before his market value completely disappears.
The only reason I could see to start him this week would be to hope he has a good game, then trade him off the good performance. Since I doubt this front office has the guts to trade him, they should be starting Clemens.
Again, I completely realize, as do the rest of the folks calling for his head, that Chad is not the sole problem with this team. Most of us are long suffering Jet fans that have been down this road many times before.
What we all understand is that the Jets are going nowhere year so it makes sense to look at the kid sooner rather than later to see if he has a chance to be the QB of the future.
The time for arguing over whose fault, or whethar Chad is a good NFL QB, has past.