A Brief History of #6 Picks
Posted on December 30th, 2007 by Bassett
EDITED UPDATE #2: Thanks to everyone who contributed and helped with some basic math. Miscalculations on my part, the Jets pick sixth.
Here are the last 10 years worth of sixth picks of the NFL Drafts …
2007: WAS – LaRon Landry, LSU – S
2006: SF – Vernon Davis, Maryland – TE
2005: TEN – Pacman Jones, WVU – CB
2004: CLE – Kellen Winslow, Miami – TE
2003: NO – Jonathan Sullivan, Georgia – DT
2002: KC – Ryan Sims, UNC – DT
2001: NE – Richard Seymour, Georgia – DT
2000: PHI – Corey Simon, FSU – DT
1999: STL – Torry Holt, UNC – WR
1998: STL – Grant Wistrom, Nebraska – DE
Here’s the Jets history with the #6 pick of the NFL Draft …
1976: Richard Todd – QB Alabama
1974: Carl Barzilauskas – DT Indiana
1971: John Riggins – RB Kansas
I added the opponent wins and your numbers seem to be off. I don’t think the Jets are behind the other teams. I just did KC and I came up with 131 wins with Indy to go tonight
I was really starting to dig the possibility of McFad, but any chance to make “Herm the Worm” squirm makes me smile. This defense does have a few very good players — Harris, Rhodes, Revis, even Ellis. Maybe Green can add Howie Long’s kid to that list.
The difference between a 5th pick and 6th in money-wise terms is HUGE!!! Is the difference between 30 million and 50 million in today’s NFL!!!
Jeff, that’s exactly the part everyone is missing in the other thread. I’d much rather have the 5th pick than the 3rd because of the cap implications.
Okay, let the predictions begin! Miami will take Dorsey, or one of the Longs. The Dolphins need a QB, but unless Parcells falls in love with one of the top QB prospects, my guess would be Dorsey. The Rams will sweat it out because they’ll draft Jake Long…I’d say that’s the lock of the first 5. Harm needs offense, may need a QB and is praying for Jake Long. Harm would love to trade out of this pick to take an OT like Ryan Clady, but the Chiefs will take Chris Long because Long and Allen can get 30 sacks a season for the next 10 years and Hali has the versatility to play DT. Whoever picks 4th will take McFadden. Atlanta would love to take choirboy Matt Ryan, but there’s too much pressure to take a star like McFadden to be the new face of the franchise and Oakland would snap up McFadden in a second. Then, the Jets. Ryan, Brohm and Woodson are there. Sedrick Ellis is there, but he’s not an NT. Gholston and Laurinaitis, both positions of need, are there. My heart says Ryan, but I’m guessing Laurinaitis or Gholston.
On a separate note, I’m real down on KC. Yes, the OL is terrible, he hasn’t had Jericho and LC, and he, generally, only started against good defenses and, although the Browns D is bad, Romeo is a master at confusing young QBs. But, KC just does not like to stay in the pocket, he’s too impatient or when the pocket collapses, he can’t see, so he has to scramble to get a throwing lane. He’s also inaccurate. Whatever it is, I just do not think KC will be a good NFL QB. If I am wrong about his talent-level, then the offense has to be completely redone to maximize his skills. In my opinion, it’s easier to draft a classic drop back QB, like Ryan, than develop a moving pocket offense for KC. Plus, Ryan is 6-5 and KC is barely (and I don’t think he is) 6-2.
Maddeningly enough, ESPN is reporting that the Jets will have the sixth pick in the 2008 draft, one spot ahead of the (damn) Patriots.
Might want to re-calculate that once again Bassett. ;-)
I counted 134-122 (0.5234) for Jets. 132-124 (0.5156) for the Raiders.
Lower number goes first.
Oakland, Kansas City, and Atlanta will flip to determine the order of 3, 4 and 5.
~ Gary
I still think it’s 6 – as I posted 10 seconds after the game ended!
Here is the NFL draft order after all the games were played. Jets pick 6th, 4 teams are tied for the 3th through 5th with tiebreakers yet to be calculated and might even involve a coin toss.
http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.htm
1 MIA
2 STL
3 ATL
4 KC
5 OAK
6 NYJ
I’m pretty sure that is the order. I don’t have ATL tied with KC or OAK and KC should be ahead of OAK based on conference records.
Does anyone here actually know the draft order rules?
Apologies. ATL and KC will flip for it.
WooHoo, way to go Mangina!!!! We win a meaningless game and we go from McFadden to McLovin. 4-12 again next year if we are lucky. I bet we pick a DB or a KR like Miami did last year. Why didn’t we take out TJ and play to lose like Indy did last night? With this staff we wouldn’t have picked McFadden anyway, I just hope Mangina gets a good OC and DC to cover his ineptitude as a HC.
The Jets L when they need a W and W when they need an L. And there are still Jets fans which trust this FO? The third pick is equal to
the 6th + the 31st. That is, two first rounders!!!! The stupid comments about how the high picks affect the Capologist’s cap and Woody’s money there are just that stupid.
In other words we won a game and we lost the equivalent of a First round pick (31st). Great job Mangini, Tennenbaum and Woody . Only you can ruin a franchise and you have no clue how to build anything!!!
Whether they pick 5th or sixth I think the most likely pick is an OLB to improve the pass-rush. If you look at the defense, that is clearly the weakest position. Although the D was weak at the beginning of the season, I think the remainder of the year exposed some glaring weaknesses on offense. Aside from the o-line and QB, it appears that there are no every-down explosive players on this offense, and aside from McFadden, there are no value picks in this area at the top of the draft. As for QB, the Jets need to give KC another season behind center. There are too many other holes on this offense to use a top 5 pick on a QB.
Hey Nikolas,
“We play to [lose]“
Hey Ilan! Why you think the Jets replaced Chad? If they cared about every win then they should not have replaced Chad. They knew that with Chad they had a better chance of winning. The rational was that the season was lost and W and L did not matter, hence let’s put KC in the game to see what he has!! Now, in the last game of the season you will attempt to win a meaningless game that costs you the equivalent of a first rounder? Who are you kidding? Stop kissing UP!
Who said the Jets played to win? The Jets failed to pass on multiple 3rd and short situations and, generally, played extremely conservatively. You can’t blame guys like Harris (WOW, what a great player), Rhodes, Revis and Bowens (say goodbye BT) from playing hard and shutting down KC’s offense.
Ilan, if there are “too many holes on this offense to use a top 5 pick on a QB,” then who should the Jets draft? There’s no OL worth the no. 6 pick because Jake Long will be gone and, in any event, it would be foolish to draft another LT in the top 6 in 3 years (IMO, drafting any other OL position with a top 6 pick is a draft crime punishable by termination). There’s no other RB, WR, or TE that’s worth a top 6 pick. So, are you for picking defense? Besides McFadden, who will be gone, QB is the only other logical choice for the offense with a top 6 pick in this draft . If not QB, then defense and that means either an ILB or an OLB/DE, but with Bowens’ emergence, I’m not convinced that OLB/DE is as important as ILB (Barton needs to be replaced and we all agree Vilma is not suited for the 3-4). Of course, NT is a defensive need, too. But, again, there’s nobody in this draft who is a prototypical 3-4 NT. When you look at this draft, the Jets’ choices are somewhat limited and they could benefit by trading down for more picks, which you know Parcells will be trying to do, too, and with a better bargaining chip.
The difference is that Oakland now picks ahead of us which means they will nab McFadden :(. We dont need the next LT in our backfield, no one needs a RB that averages 18tds a season, thats foolishness!!
SackDance! The issue is not who they pick at #6. The FO has made a mess of this team, and they seem to have no clue about the future, so any player they pick is going to be potentially good (e.g. Vernon Gholston is going to be a tremendous addition). The point is that their meaningless win had cost the Jets the possibility (or option) of trading down from 3 to 6 and getting also the eqivalent of the 31st pick. That is two first rounders.
This FO and ownership is a big disappointment. Think… ,Miami seems to have now more potential than the Jets. It was only last year that we were talking about closing the gap with the PATS!!!
Boost your memory and stop apologizing on behalf of the FO.
Nikolas, it’s not that easy to trade down. You can look at the draft points chart and say “the 3rd pick is the same as the 6th and the 31st so we can trade down and get an extra first rounder”, but unless there is a team that has both those picks and is willing to make the trade, it doesn’t mean squat. And overall, it seems like most teams have figured out that unless there is a specific player you really want, it’s better to trade down than up, so it’s become pretty hard to trade down.
The draft is a crapshoot. I’d rather pick 6th and save a lot of money than pick 3rd. McFadden has been great in college but put him behind the Jets’ line and he’d be lucky to get 4 yards a carry.
I really hope they don’t take a qb. They need a pass rusher.
Dennis! You may not find a team but is it is a valuable OPTION, and we do not even talk about the cummulative effect on rounds 2,3,4,5,6,7,
What Dennis said is true, plus the fact that it is becoming harder and harder to trade these high picks for the very reason you choose to cast aside as “stupid” – they don’t want to take on the extra salary just to take a player who has only slightly less chance of being a complete bust that the guy they take anyway.
The way things are now, any hope for this sorry franchise must start with, next year having CHAD as the QB. Clemens is not the QB.
Sign Suggs, draft Gohlston and have the most taleneted LB line in the Leauge (Gholston, Suggs, Vilma, Harris).
Then sign Alan Faneca and hope you can get a starting RLT in the second round.
The problem with this senario is that I do not believe that Free Agents want to play for the Infants we have in the Front Office.
But there is still plenty of talent in this team to be at least 10-6 and in the playoffs. The problem is that those who run the franchise are clueless.
Bent, Dennis, your argument does not hold water, because if this is the case then the VALUE chart should be reversed. Your argument is logically incosistent!!! If the 6th pick is better than the 3rd then the 31st is better than the 6th and the 64th is better than the 34th. Common guys… what are you talking about? Are you trying to defend this regime with these silly arguments?
I had a longer post that was eaten by the website, but, Nikolas, how could the Jets have done anything more to tank yesterday’s game? Let Harm guest coach? Also, who should the Jets have taken at 3rd-5th? Dorsey and Ellis are not good fits, neither is McFadden or Jake Long. So, my guess is that the only guy that the Jets may miss is Chris Long, who might be there anyhow if a QB goes in the top 5. We shall see, but I’m not convinced that the drop from 3rd to 6th is all that meaningful for the future of this team, plus the cap room they save can go towards a quality FA.
Yeah, Nikolas, the FO has really damaged the future of this team by picking Revis, Harris, Mangold and Leon, who are all potential Pro Bowlers. With Elam, E. Smith and D. Coleman to go with Revis and Poteat, the defensive backfield is deep, young and good. The jury is out on Brick and Clemens, but what exactly has the FO done to this team? From my perspective, they’ve taken an aging, talentless, salary capped out team and are re-making it as younger and more talented. Yeah, you’re right, they’ve been terrible.
SackDance, nothing is a sure thing not just in football but in life, but if you have a chance to get a McFadden a potential Star you get him. Forget about the good fits. How many times it has been said that we do not have a player in the team that is not a difference maker? Why do you think we get excited when we see Leo touching the ball? Why do you think the Pats go 16-0 when they get a Randy Moss giving them 23 tds? The 3rd pick could land us a McFadden, and if it did not we still had at least the same options as we have with the 6th. Regarding the CAP that so many of you have brought up as a plus, sure is a plus. Actually if you do not have any picks you can have a lot of cap room. But try to understand that the CAP is only a mitigating factor for not having a high pick and not the issue. It makes it simply not that bad if you do not have a pick!! But it is still bad.
Ok SackDance, let’s see the achievements of this FO.
Plus. Revis, Harris, Mangold, Leo.
Minus. Ferguson (4th pick), Schlegel (3rd round), Eric Smith (3rd round), Clemens (2nd round) ,Pennington (running for his life), Kendall (destroying the OL) , Vilma ( a probowler turned useless) , Bryan Thomas ( what a signing!!), and most important the worst reputation around the league, which makes it difficult for players willing to play here.
As of right now, if McFadden is not there I do suggest that the Jets draft Gholston. Suggs may or may not be the answer at another LB position but Vilma will not be with the team next year. That bridge is burned. Nikolas, do you honestly believe Chad will be back too. If a trade for the right value is there the Jets will take it. Mangini did the right thing giving Clemens the opportunity to see the field this year and Chad is clearly a shell of the quarterback he used to be. Yeah, he might have been better with more talent around him but he would still have limitations and he is not getting any better. As far as I can tell Clemens won three games this season to Chad’s one. Yes, the defense improved, but wins are what defines a quarterback, right?
As for picks, by your logic the Raiders should have had no problem trading the #1 pick last year so another team could grab Calvin Johnson. This didn’t happen because of the $20-30 mil guaranteed that would have required.
Nikolas, you forgot to add “$20M+ in cap room” to the plus list. This FO had to make a lot of tough decisions to get rid of veterans to clean up Bradway’s gambles. Now, we have the flexibility to get one top FA or a couple of good players. Could you say that 24 months ago? We went from 31st in cap room to 9th (according to SI.com) in 2 years. If we don’t use that cap room to get anyone important this off-season, then by all means you can re-start your gnashing of teeth.
At #6, our choices will be largely dependent on how many QB’s are taken before us. I think Dorsey, Jake Long, DMC and one QB are very likely to be gone before us. The question is, who’s the fifth player? Chris Long? Another QB? Sedrick Ellis? My hope is Chris Long slides, but if he’s taken, I guess Gholston or Laurinaitis would be at the top of our list. I’ll also say that I’m a big Brohm fan, and while the thought of taking a top-ten QB makes me queasy, he might be worth it if Tangini has lost some confidence in Clemens over the past 2 months.
Pound4pound, I will stop the gnashing of teeth by June, and I hope that you yourself will not start doing it next season, and I hope that I am 100% wrong, because I do bleed Green for too long and I hate at what am looking at. An inept, unprofeesional and clueless FO.
Nik – I wasn’t trying to say that the 6th pick is better than the 3rd pick. What I was saying was that the difference between them in real terms is less than the first rounder you stated it was because – as experts have been saying for years – the value of the picks at the top of the chart is overstated because it doesn’t take into account the increased financial risk.
That has absolutely nothing to do with the front office of the Jets or any other team.
Nikolas, let’s breakdown each of your “minuses.” First, I hated the Brick pick at 4th, but the FO did what nearly every other FO would’ve done given how terrible the Jets’ OL was. Seanmac wanted Cutler, I wanted Leinart or, if the FO was so confident about Chad, Vernon Davis or Haloti Ngata (who was my no. 1 choice, but would’ve been a reach at 4). But, taking the top LT on the board was not a mistake at the time; it was the logical pick and, if Brick gets a better LG next to him (at least one of Allen’s sacks yesterday came after Brick pushed him to where the LG should’ve been for a double-team), then he might be better. Although, I think he’s this generation’s Chris Ward, but without the run-blocking prowess.
Schlegel didn’t work out. So what? Not every pick, even a 3rd rounder can work out. I like Eric Smith, who was great in training camp, then got injured, but came on late. The jury is out on him. Plus, in ‘06, lots of teams made 3rd round picks that with 20-20 hindsight were poor…it was the 4th round that turned out great in ‘06…take a look, lots of NFL starters; that’s the draft for you. Pennington? How can you possibly blame this FO for Chad. I just don’t understand your logic. Blame Chad for his running around together with the OL. Weak-armed, immobile QBs get blitzed and face 8-men in the box. Plus, Chad’s game is the short pass, something he could no longer do sideline-to-sideline anymore. Kendall was a mistake, not because he wasn’t signed, but because the FO did not have a plan B. Okay, a mistake. Blame Vilma for Vilma. Mangini’s system is the 3-4 and Vilma couldn’t cut it. Bryan Thomas struggled this season, but after last season, how can you say that was a mistake? Also, you forgot another minus, Kimo, don’t forget that signing…I guess you forgot signings like Damien Robinson, Matthew Hachette, Curtis Conway and Sam Cowart under Harm…it is a crapshoot lots of times.
How about some other plus moves: Elam, Brad Smith (4th round), Drew Coleman (6th round), and David Bowens, who came on and could render BT redundant, and Kenyon Coleman, who I think played very well for his first full season starting…let’s hope he improves. How about the bold moves to get Revis and Harris? And, how about all the cap room? If someone had told you the Jets would be 14-18 in the first 2 seasons of the Tangini regime, would you have been upset or surprised? That ‘05 4-12 team had many problems and little hope. This one could’ve easily been an 8-8 team with only slightly better execution and, yes, a little luck. Like I’ve said before, I’ll be right there with you with my pitchfork and torch to run Tangini out of town if I see another under-.500 season in ‘08 because I think this team is real close to being above-average…good will take better QB play and I’m not sure there’s anyone on the roster. But, a better line means a better running game and with an improving defense, all the Jets need is mediocre QB play…like Tennessee, San Diego, Washington, and Jacksonville.
Last point, I’m a fan, not an NFL GM, so I like McFadden a lot and I would draft him if he was available…I also liked Curtis Enis, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, who can’t stay healthy, Reggie Bush, who had an even better college career than McFadden, KiJana Carter, and Blair Thomas. Again, there are no sure things in the draft. Lots of pundits think that McFadden will be injury-prone because of his thin, wiry body. McFadden would’ve been a luxury for the Jets. Instead, Mangini should find a way to use Leon more. Leon is a playmaker and he’s already on the roster at RB making 3rd round money. The smart move is not to draft McFadden and now the Jets, thankfully, don’t have that headache.
Being a razorbacks fan ive been watching DMac for abt 3 yrs now, and I think it would be a huge mistake to take him if he’s stilll available. Infact if he’s available then we’ll get a chance to trade down(RB is not a huge need and RB stars fade away too quickly). I’d rather trade down and get Felox Jones from Arkansas in 2nd or 3rd round if need be.
I’m with SD99 on this, if there is no player available for 6th position and no one to trade down, then I’d rather take Matt Ryan and let him develop for a couple of yrs while KC gets a chance to improve. Chad, love him, but he is as good as gone. We cant pay him that kinda money and go thru the same pain every yr. The 6th round pick command too much money to waste on anything other than a QB who “could” be franchise. Taking an offensive lineman(outside of LT) in the top ten is not at all a good idea. But things could change till the workouts are done.
And Nicholas, id rather win and be 6th seeded than in the top-5. The money saved by not paying these top-3 rookies could be used to get LG or TE or any darn thing that could help the team. Its not like woody is keeping that money in his pocket.
No way McFadden.
Bent is totally right about the draft pick values – the top picks are overvalued by “the chart” because they don’t factor in the financial side.
I agree with SackDance. The front office is moving the team in the right direction. They problem is we ended up with inflated expectations this year because of the surprise playoff run last year. That team grossly overachieved against a weak schedule. This year the schedule got a lot tougher and the team underachieved on top of it. I’ll think they’ll bounce back next year, and with the weaker schedule they could be in the playoff hunt.
I think the biggest mistake Mangini and co. have made was going to the 3-4 when they didn’t have the personnel for it. Aside from that, I think the staff has done a good job. It takes time to build a team. If we have another 4-12 season then I agree it will be time for changes at the top, but I’m still willing to give them the benefit of the doubt at this point.
Anyone who defends this FO is secretly a Patriots Fan. Because our !@#$%^ up moves have put them years ahead of us talentwise. I hope we get Cowher or better yet Mark Cuban buys the team and moves them back to New York where they belong. I hate sharing a stadium!!!!!
James in TN — have you perhaps mistaken this for a Knicks blog? There, I can understand the vitriol for the FO. Here, I just don’t get why you’re grinding such a sharp axe.
LOL, good one. I put Thomas and Mangina in the same category. Both are jokes.
James, we were years behind them talent-wise to begin with.
James in TN: I hope you are not on your knees in Tennessee praying for the Jets to return to NY because it would seem to me to be a wasted prayer.
Is everyone forgetting that this FO signed Thomas Jones? This guy ran for 1,119 yards behind an atrocious offensive line. Give this guy a respectable line and he easily runs for 1400. Also, not sure if anyone else noticed, but Pouha came on very strong down while getting more reps down the stretch. He made a lot of tackles at or within 1-2 yards of the Line of scrimmage. SackDance is right, you cannot expect for every pick to become a star. (Revis, Harris, TJ, Leo, Mangold were very good picks/moves). (B and E Smith, D Coleman and Elam all solid picks).
I direct anyone who wants to hang KC for his size to look at Brees. See what good OLs have done for this kid.
I do not thing that this team is far from being a legitimate playoff team.
Suggestions:
Faneca or one of the UFA guards from Indy.
If he is willing, move Vilma to OLB. If not, trade him.
Starks getting injured may be a blessing in disguise. This man is huge and has been a big part of Pitts OL success. His injury will certainly drive down his value. I think it is worth the risk. Now you are talking about having two OL vets from the same team which would make it easier for this line to gel.
Sign Suggs.
Vilma’s way too small to play OLB in this scheme.