Time for Some Math Word Problems …
UPDATE: So everyone’s agreed? It is sixth? I knew better than to question Bent, he’s never wrong about anything football related … seriously.
To save me more emails, rechecking my numbers and so on I’m letting you do this for me. For all you folks who are sure that it’s the fifth or sixth… let’s work this out together I’ve bolded the rules applicable here.Determining Draft Order …
- The team with the lowest winning percentage at the end of the previous season drafts first in the NFL Draft.
- The rest of the teams are placed in order from lowest winning percentage to the highest.
- The Super Bowl winner drafts last, even if they do not have the highest winning percentage.
- The Super Bowl loser drafts next to last.
- Strength of schedule for the previous season is the first tie-breaker for teams with the same winning percentage.
- Divisional and conference records are the next step in the tie-breaking procedure.
- As a last resort, a coin toss is used to determine the order of selection for teams with the same winning percentage.
- If a playoff and non-playoff team end the season with the same winning percentage, the non-playoff team selects before the playoff team regardless of strength of schedule.
So by my noting this, it goes Record –> Opponent Winning Percentage –> Divisional and Conference Records –> THEN Coin Toss if necessary.
Here’s some resources:
- [NFL.com League Standings]
- [SoS.xls (I'm a dummy, wrote OAK plays OAK instead of MIA]
As best I can tell, here’s the order. You tell me if I am right or wrong.
Miami Dolphins (1 Win)
St. Louis Rams (3 Wins)
Atlanta Falcons (4 Wins, 132 opp wins /.516, 1-5 in division)
Kansas City Chiefs (4 Wins 132 opp wins / .516, 2-4 in Division, .250 Conference)
Oakland Raiders (4 Wins 132 opp wins / .516, .333 Conference Record) New York Jets (4 Wins 134 opp wins / .523)
19 Responses to Time for Some Math Word Problems …
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SackDance99 says:
Westhoff is “retiring” to deal with bone cancer issues. Now, on top of everything else, the Jets lose the best special teams coach in the NFL.
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keith says:
are any of you guys above me JETS FANS???!!!
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Rambo says:
Oakland played Miami in Week 4 not Oakland as the spreadsheet shows. Subtract 3 wins from Oakland’s total.
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http://forums.theganggreen.com/showthread.php?t=24848
I’ve been running this thread over at TheGangGreen.com.
I believe it to be the official draft order aside form a few changes after the post season. I anticipate doing it again next year if you are interested in setting up a joint venture or something. -
Bent says: Ignore the rules – every source on the planet seems to have us picking 6th. Surely that’s enough.
The lesson, as always, listen to the professor.
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Oakland’s Strength Of Schedule
Detroit – 7-9
Denver – 7-9
Cleveland – 10-6
Miami – 1-15
SD – 11-5
KC – 4-12
Tennessee – 10-6
Houston – 8-8
Chicago – 7-9
Minnesota – 8-8
KC – 4-12
Denver – 7-9
GB – 13-3
Indy – 13-3
Jacksonville – 11-5
SD – 11-5
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Overall – 132-124
Strength Of Schedule – 132/256 = (0.5156)====================================
Jets Strength Of Schedule
New England – 16-0
Baltimore – 5-11
Miami – 1-15
Buffalo – 7-9
Giants – 10-6
Philly – 8-8
Cincinnati – 7-9
Buffalo – 7-9
Washington – 9-7
Pittsburgh – 10-6
Dallas – 13-3
Miami – 1-15
Cleveland – 10-6
New England – 16-0
Tennessee – 10-6
Kansas City – 4-12
——————————
Overall – 134-122
Strength Of Schedule – 134/256 = (0.5234)“Strength of schedule for the previous season is the first tie-breaker for teams with the same winning percentage.”
The easier schedule selects first.
Oakland Raiders – 5th
New York Jets – 6thI stand by my decision and sticking with the 6th pick.
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Keith
Had season tickets back in the days of Shea. Saw Joe Willie many of times, been a fan since the first day they drafted him. Can count on one hand the number of games I have missed since. Moved to Texas 11 years ago and I’am still following them. Make sure I go to at least one road game per year. I can bet you my house is possible the only one that flys a JETS Flag down here on Sundays!!!!
I’ve seen it all with this team and still bleed green- as do my sons…thank you. -
droseatwork says:
I am, I was just commenting on the fact that there is a huge controversy over where we’re picking.
You need to simma down Keif
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RK says:
Yeah I just did the math for the millionth time, the Jets opponents have 134 Wins and the the other three have 132. So they Jets get the 6th.
If Indy had come last night it would have helped but they are definately the 6th unfortunately. Never has a meaningless end of the year victory meant so much
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I seem to be in the minority here, but I was HAPPY THAT THE JETS WON yesterday. I could care less about draft positions — the draft, at best, is a crap shoot. Think about how everyone was going crazy about Reggie Bush a few years ago (“he’s a once-in-a-lifetime player” “can’t miss” etc.) — he’s been okay, not the be-all, end-all. Same now with McFadden. Next year, it’ll be someone else.
Look, I love draft day as much as the next guy, but personally, I am much happier with a win over Harm yesterday than picking three slots earlier and paying extra millions to a player who has never played a down in the NFL and may or may not be “great.” (Or may not even pan out at all — see the huge list of 1st-round busts)
I don’t care if it’s a lost season or “it doesn’t matter.” I may not agree with Harm on a lot of things, but he was right when he said, “You play to win the game.” I jumped up a cheered when Nugent’s kick went through the second time — because my team had won! And to me, that’s what it’s about.
[jumps off soap box and back into the fray0
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TimNY says:
absolutely.
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Seriously, people are bitching that we won a game and dropped a couple pegs in the draft? ridiculous beyond words.
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Nikolas says:
TimNY, if you think that a meaningless win is so important, irrespective on how it affects your future, then why you think teams who are already in playoffs do not play their statrters? Why don’t they play to win? Maybe because sometimes even a win can be too costly? And the couple of pegs in the draft you are talkin about , i am soory to inform you that they are not a couple in a linear sense. If you look at the value chart is the equivalent of an extra first rounder!!!!
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steviek says:
As usual, I have to agree with R in CT. I looked at the drafts for the about the last 15 years. We should get a really good player at 6, maybe just not the big name player that people would feel better about.
Problems seem to happen when teams reach at that spot for offensive skill positions (Lawrence Phillips for one), and sometimes a Pro Bowler falls into your lap (Richard Seymour for another). The top of the 2nd has also shown to be a great spot to great value at guard.
I still have confidence in the Jets scouting and drafting. Reading alot of nervousness about the FO and I think that comes in part because it’s almost impossible to get any idea what their plan is outside of, “we’re looking at every position and trying to get better.” Yeah, we know. When you don’t really know what the plan is, it’s tough to have confidence in it.
If Chad goes, if Vilma goes, it seems they are committed to completely remaking the team from the Herm version.
But it still all comes down to QB. Clemens has the athleticism and the commitment, but had trouble with reads, pocket presence and consistency in accuracy. Those last 3 have to do with experience. Will he get better with experience? No guarantees. I’d feel more comfortable if once in a while he made a play that made me think wow, he’s going to be good. But that’s tough to do with 1 healthy wr, no running game and almost zero protection play to play.
With the cap room and picks they are in a good position to improve what I think is a mediocre roster, not a terrible one. If things go bad again next year, then they’re open to serious criticism and possibly change. But even if next year was 6-10, I don’t think I’d be ready to blow things up and start all over again with a new system. -
I think that we need 3 or for years to judge the FO. Let’s be honest, as long as the PATS have brady, I don’t see many division titles in our future. I want to see a LONG TERM growth strategy. I think we get too caught up in the IMPROVEMENT NOW and we lose sight of the long term.
We’re getting younger and more talented. That is the first step. If we want to be in this for the long run we need to give the FO some time. -
We did quite well last year with Revis at 14 and Harris in the second round. Leon Washington was a 4th rounder. You never know. R in CT is right–Reggie Bush was the next Gale Sayers. He’s been just OK.
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Daniel Fox says:
As usual, R_in_CT gets it right. I loved finishing the season with a win (even though I was stuck in South Florida and couldn’t watch the game). How could the Jets let Herm come into the Meadowlands and bet them?
Also, now the Jets don’t have to pay a top 5 pick salary and can save some extra cap room for FA’s.
Happy New Year everybody!
This is a cluster F