2008 Jets State of the Union Part 2: The QB Quandry
To read Part 1 of this series, click here …
QB Quandry
Clemens, Pennington or both?
This is one of the biggest subplots that will play out during the 2007-8 offseason for the Jets. To me, the toothpaste is out of the tube, the Jets made the switch to Clemens, whether it was the right decision or not, it’s done and as I imagined would happened, Pennington has stated his requests … that he wants to start, be it in New York or elsewhere. It’s hard for me to realistically imagine that his future as a starter is with the Jets.
I understand the reasons for this, but there is some mystical magical barrier for QBs in the NFL, and once the seal has been tampered, nothing is ever the same. Bledsoe and Brady, Rivers and Brees the list goes on. Kellen Clemens performance thus far hasn’t eased the transition, but most of us didn’t think he would come in and lead the Jets to the SuperBowl. To me, the Kellen Clemens or Chad Pennington debate is causal.
The QB play is the product of a bad offensive line and we are seeing the blemishes of the QB amplified by the OL play … but that’s the topic of another post in this series. Commenter seanmac made a solid point about the Chad situation yeseterday, and one in which I wholeheartedly agree, the bolding is mine.
My problem with the Chad is done theory is that I didn’t see any difference in his velocity last year when the team went 10-6. I don’t think he was throwing it much harder [in 2004], either. What has changed-and changed significantly-is the quality of the offensive line and the ability of the team to run play action. In 2004, the Jets line averaged 4.82 line yards per game, and they were the best short down run blocking unit in football. Since then, they’ve average 3.86, 3.96 and 4.10 yards per game, and they’ve gone from being one of the best power lines to one of the worst. The capper is that the pass blocking has gotten worse, to the point where the Jets had one of the worst sack rates in the league this year. Part of that is Clemens, but a lot of it isn’t. … I can understand the arguments for going with Clemens next year, or that Chad may limit the ceiling on an offense (although I’m not completely convinced of that). But the assumption that he’s washed up is, I think, highly dubious. Put Chad on a team with a good offensive line and a good running back and I think they would field an elite offense, regardless of the quality of the receivers. Put him on a team with no running game, a bad offensive line and a disaster of a defense, and you’re going to get what we got.
Back when pundits were wowed by Kellen Clemens’ 4th Quarter heroics over the Ravens, I was calling foul knowing that it was a par-performance against a prevent defense, and it’s proven out in the following weeks. What has troubled me most is the lack of real progress I have seen on his part over the arc of his starts, but as stated above, how big a grain of salt do we take with that while his line was turnstiling players directly to the QB? On the other side, it’s true he faced some tough defenses, but he also had some cushion games where we saw underwhelming results against the likes of Miami and Kansas City.
Any way you slice it though, the Jets have to choose between a veteran who has good ball placement and pocket presence but has little velocity and a real knack at getting intercepted at all the worst times or to go with a youngster who is learning on the job, has a better arm, but might never have the pocket presence or location that his predecessor had even near the start of his career. It’s a sticky situation to be sure, but one in my opinion from which you can’t retreat and one that you can’t help but seriously factor in the decay of this offensive line and running game.
As R in CT outlined a few weeks back, pulling Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer because they struggled early on wouldn’t have been the right answer either. True, Clemens might not be at their talent level, but if we followed such instance gut-reactions to their early play, think about what could have been squandered. Playing QB is probably the toughest thing in the NFL, so the kid needs time, sadly though, it’s at the fans’ expense. Hope isn’t a strategy, but it’s all we have until the Jets make their final determination on him and shore up a woeful line. Thus allowing Clemens (the likely guy for next year) to work with his receivers even more in the offseason, allowing him to settle down in the pocket and make better reads come next fall. That being said, if the line does get an upgrade, the Jets need to see real progress from Kellen Clemens in 2008.
With 5-7 teams that could use Pennington as a starter immediately, there’s a viable trade market for the QB, GMs like Jerry Angelos are already scouring the market and have said as much. If the Jets want to, but can’t seem to move him, it’s a question of how the Jets trade-value their lame-duck QB. With a weak projected free agent QB class and a lack of clear top-rated QB prospects through the draft who can start next September, it’s fair to say that anything could happen, but expecting more than a 3rd rounder for Pennington to me seems out of the question.
If Pennington can’t be traded at Tannenbaum’s perceived value, then this really forces Pennington’s hand. If he truly wants to start for an NFL club more than making $8 million (I think) in 2008, he might have to come to the table to restructure his deal so that cutting him becomes more palatable and/or realistic for the Jets. Now that I think of it, I don’t even know if that’s allowed. Either way, I imagine that the Jets won’t be the first to blink. They will hold onto anything they can if they think the can get something for that player … look no farther than Pete Kendall or even Brooks Bollinger in 2006. The Jets might have Pennington held as a hostage, but Pennington is holding a large cap number as a counter-hostage … valuable money should the Jets truly want to be players in the free agent market come March as they have leaked is their intention to the fishwraps.
Up next, The Woe Line …
[Part 1: Darkest Before the Dawn]
30 Responses to 2008 Jets State of the Union Part 2: The QB Quandry
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jetsgrumbler says:
Bassett–this series is great, and I can’t wait for the OL/DL editions.
I have my own views on the QB situation, but everything has been so thoroughly exposed, both in your posts and the comments, that it is just repetitive. In short, though, I think the ideal situation would be one season with Clemens as starter to see what he has and keep Pennington as the backup. Of course, Pennington might not like that…
As for the QB quandry: I think it’s too bad Pennington seems like he wants out, because he would otherwise be an ideal backup while we wait it out and see if Clemens is any good.
I agree that Pennington’s arm isn’t really any different, but the fact remains that even with a good line and running game, Chad would need a 2000 Ravens type defense to win a Super Bowl. If we want to win a Super Bowl, we really need a great QB, not just a good QB. (I have no idea whether Clemens will be great, but Pennington clearly will not.) Teams like 85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, and 2002 Bucs are rare exceptions. In short, I don’t think it pays to build a future on a QB whose ceiling is just above average.
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J says:
Love the series thus far.
Last thing on Chad – I dont agree with the thinking behind we need a 2000 – Ravens defense to win a SB with him. We were a FG from the AFC championship with him not too long ago. That gets forgotton so quickly, so does last yr.
I do think that there are certain things that make Chad shine, more then other QB’s even. Example – he is fantastic with play action – a running game makes him multiple times better, more then other QB’s who arent great with play fakes.
To Bassett or anyone else – do you feel that Mangini’s hand was forced by the media to make the change this yr? He seemed reluctant to do it for a long while, maybe we now see why with KC’s performance when he played? Is there a chance they dont believe in KC as much as the bloggers do? They are at practice, they should know more about the kid then us.
And also – is there a chance they keep Chad knowing that if they have another 4-12 season behind KC – they may be out of jobs?
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Thanks for all the encouragement … plenty more to come in the days ahead! We have a whole offseason to fill!!! :D
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Mike says:
There’s a good article on SI.com talking about why so many late round & undrafted QBs have become stars. I think this really insightful and should force us to examine the kind of pressure Clemens is under and how much more he has to learn. Think about the guys the Drew Bledsoe provided cover for!
There’s an assumption out there that everybody missed Tom Brady in 2000. I think the real question is if Brady was drafted on day 1, would he still have become a rock star.http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/reuben_frank/01/03/wild.card/index.html
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TFP says:
Watching Chad this season, especially when he came back later on, I couldn’t understand why there wasn’t a single ball thrown more than 10 yards and in the middle of the field. Arm strength or not you cannot be successful throwing out pass after out pass to the receivers and endless dump passes to the RBs.
Chad and KC were so predictable and one-dimensional. Like Bassett said, it has a lot to do with the O-line. The quarterbacks’ hands were so tied by the line that they didn’t have many options.
I posted a comment after the first game of the season saying that Chad sucked only because of the line. He had no time to look at his options. With a solid O-line he would be able to take what the defense gives him, unfortunately this season the line didn’t enable him to do that.
The devastating INTs Chad threw in Buffalo and Cinci do not happen if he had the time to look down the field. Those throws had less to do with Chad’s arm and his ability than it did with the line inability. I think with those throws, Chad was basically making them blind and they blew up in his face.
But what distrubs me more is that Schott didn’t adjust to any of this. A good OC should’ve made adjustments to the gameplan to help the quarterbacks, and I’m not talking about running the option. He let Chad throw out pass, dump pass, out pass, dump pass. He needed to figure out a way to be successful when those plays were obviously not working.
Worst of all is that the O-line didn’t suck because of injury, it was what it was in August. You CAN’T go in with the usual gameplan with that line. The same plays that didn’t work in Sept. were’nt working in Dec. It was Schott’s job to adjust and he dropped the ball.
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Nikolas says:
Nice work Bassett, but I think that next year Chad will be starting as the QB because with Chad and some improvements the team can rebuild while at the same time can stay competitive. See Parcels in Dallas. He was waiting with Bledsoe -knowing that he had developed a good QB in Romo. Romo became the Dallas QB only when it became clear that he was better than Bledsoe. The Tangini regime will follow the same philosophy. I have never witnessed a case where a worst QB replaces a better QB for developmental reasons. This is not how business are done in the NFL, but.. eh there is always a first time who knows!!!
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seanmac says:
Of course, the SI article doesn’t note that the number of quarterbacks taken after the second round who end up as starters is about 6% of the total drafted. I remember casually looking up the numbers over around a five or six year period, and there were about four starters who came out of 72 or 73 quarterbacks drafted in the later rounds. When a first round quarterback goes down in flames, everyone sees it. But the vast majority of lower round picks wash in and out of the league without ever doing anything. So relying on the late rounds is not exactly a high percentage strategy.
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SackDance99 says:
I would have to repeat all of my prior postings about Chad, but blaming all of his woes on the OL, playcalling or whatever just glosses over the fact that Chad has lost his ability to throw the short out with NFL-quality effectiveness. It’s his bread-and-butter pass and it’s now a pick-6 waiting to happen. I posted this on another thread, but it should be repeated here:
Chad’s historical numbers mean nothing because today’s Chad is a shadow of his former self. Sure, his raw numbers are equivocal, but, at best his numbers are mediocre; is that what the Jets want: 2nd in completion percentage, but 20th in yards per attempt;, 15th in QB rating (that’s good!?!), 20th in INT%, and 18th in TD%. Those are just not good numbers. Oh, but it was the OL. Chad was sacked 26 times in 9 games. That’s almost 3 per game. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked 47 times in 15 games. That’s over 3 per game. Big Ben also has a good OL (most guys want Faneca and Starks from his OL) and a great running game, not to mention a great complement of receivers (deep threats (Holmes), possesion (Ward) and a good pass-catching TE (Miller)). It was the playcalling, global warming, etc, etc. The fact is that Chad is not a good QB anymore and I think the numbers back up my assessment. But, the only real number that counts is 1-8. Chad just didn’t win this season and I have no confidence that he can do so anymore.
Put Chad on a team, like Pittsburgh, with a great defense, great OL and running game and the Steelers miss the playoffs. With essentially the same team last year, but a sluggish Big Ben, they missed the playoffs. I know Bassett, seanmac, Nikolas and others disagree, but the Chad I saw is, at best, mediocre.
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Bent says: “he might have to come to the table to restructure his deal so that cutting him becomes more palatable and/or realistic for the Jets. Now that I think of it, I don’t even know if that’s allowed.”
Correct…it is not allowed.
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Sack- Have you actually watched much Pittsburgh, either this year or last year? I’m covering the AFC North this year, so I’ve seen quite a bit of them. Their offensive line is terrible, and their running game isn’t very good. They were one of only two teams (the other being San Francisco) to give up a higher percentage of sacks per pass attempt than the Jets, and they were in the bottom third of the league in run blocking. The only people clamoring for Pittsburgh linemen are people who don’t watch them play and who assume that it’s the same line it was in 04-05. Steelers fans have been complaining about the poor quality of the line play for two years, and rightly so.
I’m not sure what the rest of your post is arguing-that Roethlisberger is better than Pennington, I guess, which he definitely was this year (last year, in contrast, Pennington was better), but that’s a pretty inaccurate take on the Steelers offense.
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Just as an addendum, you’re comparing sack rates for offenses with radically different philosophies. Pittsburgh runs a ton of vertical routes with seven step drops, and Roethlisberger holds onto the ball longer than just about any quarterback in the league (and does so very successfully). The Jets were running a short passing game where the quarterback was supposed to unload the ball as quickly as possible. If he’s getting sacked at the same rate as the guy holding the ball for 4+ seconds and waiting for guys to come free deep, that tells you something is seriously wrong.
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steviek says:
from rotoworld:
A Raiders spokesman confirmed Friday that the team will retain defensive coordinator Rob Ryan for the 2008 season.
Score one for Al Davis. Both Ryan and head coach Lane Kiffin thought Ryan was gone, and the NFL Network reported it Monday night. Kiffin clearly wanted to make a change and the Jets were believed to be ready to hire Ryan. While it may be difficult for Kiffin and Ryan to work together now, they are retaining a good coach. Any thoughts of switching to a Cover 2 scheme are over now. Just another Raider offseason. Jan. 4 – 4:51 pm et
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seanmac, FO has the Steelers at 12 in offensive DVOA. The line was good enough for Willie Parker to be the 4th leading rusher in the NFL, with over 1300 yards and over a 4 yard per carry average. Davenport actually had an even better yard per carry average. So, it sure looks like their line was pretty good.
But, you hit the nail on the head, Pittsburgh has a vertical offense, in fact, 7 of the top ten offensive DVOAs are vertical offenses. Chad could not run those offenses. Two were West Coast offenses, so Chad, because he can’t hit out patterns and is pretty poor at slants, could not run those either. Perhaps he could run Jacksonville’s offense, but would any GM is his right mind choose Chad over Garrard (102.2 QB rating, 18 TDs to 3 INTs)? You said: “Put Chad on a team with a good offensive line and a good running back and I think they would field an elite offense, regardless of the quality of the receivers.” Well, which of the top offenses in the NFL could Chad run? Since those ten must have pretty good systems, which you have said is all important, then Chad should prosper in all 10, right? I really do not believe that you actually think that’s the case.
Your premise, IMO, is fatally flawed. I raised Pittsburgh because Ben was sacked more. That their OL, in your opinion, is poor makes my point even better: that a veteran, like Chad, should be able to overcome a poor OL, but his declining physical condition just doesn’t allow for that possibility. Big Ben has overcome a poor OL. And, I don’t know what kind of point you’re making by saying that Chad had a marginally better season last year, when Ben was rusty from his near-fatal motorcycle accident, but since he’s been in the league, Ben has outperformed Chad in 3 of 4 seasons, and it really hasn’t been close. Ben, by the way, is taller and has a much stronger arm than Chad. My speculative conclusion is, to paraphrase you: “Put an elite QB on the Jets and even with poor pass protection, but a good running back, I think they would field an elite offense, regardless of the quality of the left guard.”
Last point, seanmac, have you actually seen Chad play this season, because he’s been terrible. I saw Chad live at the Stadium, went to training camp, taped the games, watched the SNY recaps…he’s been pretty awful. But, I guess since you were covering the AFC North, you might have missed him. His stats really don’t do him justice and, as I cited above, his stats weren’t good.
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dbatesman says:
Agree completely with SackDance99. I honestly cannot fathom how anyone can deny Chad’s incredible decline. His arm got noticeably weaker from the beginning of last season to the end, and even more so from the end of last season to the beginning of this one. Echoing SackDance’s point about the short out: Chad can no longer make one of the most basic throws required of a quarterback. Chad is, quite simply, physically incapable of playing quarterback at a professional level.
Moreover, Chad took a huge step back in terms of efficiency this season. The same people who harp on Chad’s “savvy” and “efficiency” and “care for the football” conveniently overlooked his mediocre 17 TD/16 INT season last year because he led us into the playoffs; now it seems they’re willing to overlook the horrible interceptions he threw this season–many of which, contrary to popular opinion, were NOT due to pressure but were either a) directly related to a lack of arm strength resulting in the DBs sitting on routes, or b) horrible reads that no veteran of Chad’s experience should make. At this point, Chad–who could never fall back on arm strength–has apparently also lost the intelligence and ability to protect the football that made him so effective in 2002 and, to a lesser extent, 2004. By the Cincinnati game, he was playing scared, never looking downfield, never finding the open man, constantly going to the RB screen or flat. In a season and a half, the Jets went from a short-passing game to a dink-and-dunk passing game to a dumpoff passing game, and that sort of offense simply will not win you a game.
I always liked Chad as a competitor and teammate and leader, but he’s cashed in on one good year (2002) and done very little since then. He has never been able to consistently defeat top-10 defenses, his lack of arm strength severely limits the offensive game plan (and simplifies the plan for the opposing defense), and–this year in particular, but throughout his career–he is utterly unable to overcome a bad turnover. He presses during close games and runs the most pathetic 2-minute offense in all of football.
I am not denying that the offensive line is bad (actually, I think it’s the worst in the league), or that the running game is ineffective, or that our defense has choked away several 4th-quarter leads. But guess what? Behind the same crappy offensive line, supported by the same crappy running game, protected by the same crappy defense, AND with banged-up receivers…Clemens has clearly outperformed Chad this season. Don’t believe me? Look at the numbers. Since Clemens became the full-time starter (i.e., not counting the Baltimore game), and counting the NE game as a Chad loss since he played the majority of the game:
1) Offensive Points Per game has increased from 12.63 under Chad to 17.67 under Clemens.
2) Total yards per game has gone from 271.75 under Chad to 304.67 under Clemens
3) Rushing yards per game has gone from 92.63 under Chad to 118.33 under Clemens
4) Rushing yards per carry has gone from 3.76 to 4.01 under Clemens
5) Our winning % has gone from .125 under Chad to .429 under Clemens
I’m not saying Clemens is a future Hall of Famer, or even that he’s necessarily the long-term answer for the Jets (although 7 starts is absolutely not enough time to evaluate a QB). I’m just saying this: Chad ISN’T the answer. Period.
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An addendum:
Chad’s stats:
2002- 22TDs-6INTs-104.2Rating
2003-13TDs-12INTs-82.9
2004 (pre-injury) -9TDs-3INTs
2004(post-injury)-9TDS-7INTs
2005-2TDS-3INTs-70.9
2006-17TDs-16INTs-82.6
2007-10TDs-9INTs-86.1To recap, pre-injury: 44TDs-21INTs
post-injury:38TDs-35INTsNet out Chad’s 2002 and he’s been a mediocre QB, at best, with no vertical game and little upside and his QB rating just hasn’t been anything more than average. Thanks dbatesman for your stats and your support…there’s just no denying what we’ve seen on the field and what’s on paper, Chad just isn’t all that good. It’s too bad because his injuries robbed him of a good, and maybe great, career.
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Jeff says:
Yup, you nailed it SackDance. The fact that he injured his shoulder twice, and the wrist injury which robbed him much of the 2003 season, has robbed him of many of his abilities.
Coming out of the draft you knew what Chad was, an effective game manager with a high football IQ. You knew if you put him in a game he will consistently move the chains and get you in a position to win. Heck he is the winningest QB in our franchise history, pretty sad huh?
We will have to be pretty lucky to land a good QB in the draft, since we never, ever have a good track record of drafting QB’s. Maybe FA is the way to go? (Get what you pay for) There was one year I remember distinctly 1997, we had #1 overrall pick and we were destined to pick Manning, Parcells signed up with a great chance. THEN, he decided to stay for his senior year!!! SOB!!! Just our luck!
Clemens hasn’t shown me much of anything! He has terrible accuracy! COnsider the fact that Clemens basically ran the same O Chad ran with the same dumpoffs, etc. His completion % hovered around 50% while Chad was second to Brady with a 68.8% just .1 less than Brady!
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I’ve seen every snap of Pennington, just as I’ve seen every snap of Clemens (and just about everyone else, thanks to Short Cuts). And he can make the short out- he made plenty of the over the course of the season. He also got picked on several of them, but then again, so did Vinny with his rocket arm (I think Duane Starks is still running with that quick out to Ward). Getting picked on the quick out is largely a product of game situation, and in fact most of Pennington’s 4th quarter picks came when the team was behind and he was trying to work the sidelines (which he had been doing successfully earlier in each of the games). There is no doubt that Pennington’s lack of velocity means that he has a very small margin of error on any quick throw outside the numbers. But that’s different from saying he is incapable of making the throw at all, which clearly isn’t the case. He wouldn’t have a 68% completion percentage if he wasn’t hitting that pass with regularity.
As for Pittsburgh, the averaged 4.19 adjusted line yards (19th) and were 31st in sack rate. And Willie Parker had a very ineffective year. It doesn’t show up in his traditional stats because he led the league in carries, but on a per play basis he was one of the least effective backs in football, with a -11.3% DVOA, making him the 44th best back in the league on a per-play basis. For comparison’s sake, Thomas Jones posted a -14.7% DVOA. Would you say that suggests the Jets were a pretty good run blocking unit? I highly recommend going to some Steelers blogs and see what the fans and local media have to say about the offensive line- I guarantee you it won’t be positive. And the notion that a veteran should overcome getting sacked or hurried over and over is absurd. Yes, Roethlisberger does it- he’s 6’5″ and the best quarterback in the league at making plays after contact. It’s the exception, not the rule. The other teams that gave up sacks on more than 8% of their pass attempts were Detroit, Oakland, Minnesota, St. Louis, Kansas City and San Francisco. Not a whole lot of triumphing in the face of pressure there. What are the DVOA ratings of quarterbacks who were sacked with such regularity? 28.1% for Roethlisberger-tremendous. Then…3.5% for Kitna, 1.5% for Culpepper, -10.1% for Huard, -10.8% for Bulger, -9.9% for Croyle, -12.4% for Tavaris Jackson, -41.6% for Josh McCown, -47% for Alex Smith, -48.2% for Dilfer, -18.1% for Clemens and -0.9% for Pennington. Which is to say that Pennington’s performance is right in line with guys who were stuck behind sieve-like offensive lines, and actually was a bit better than most.
Anyway, this is as far as I go with this particular argument. I understand that you think Pennington has been shot for some time, and you have posted your reasons for it. That’s fine. We’ll find out if the team and if the league agrees with you in the next 12 months. I’m just not inclined to draw too many conclusions based on this season, because all the things that gave Pennington problems gave Clemens even more problems.
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James in TN says:
Let’s talk about the demise of the OL. What changed from last year to this year? Tougher schedule, defense heavy draft and playing chicken with Pete Kendall. The FO could control 2 of the 3 contributing factors. Therefore does it not make since to boot Tangini and get some Football people in our FO and at HC? I mean we lost to Joe Gibbs because of Mangina and they made the playoffs. Let’s keep our personnel, draft some offensive help at OL and WR, and scrap the HC and win.
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James in TN .. with regard to the FO- since the Kendall fiasco-I have critisized them to the extreme for ONE reason. They seemed too arrogant and unprofessional and that they were messing with the whole season. Some argued that it was not arrogance but conviction that somehow they knew that they had Kendall’s replacement and Kendall for an extra million was expendable. Well.. as the season progressed it was proven that there was no replacement… Clarke, Bender etc and consequently there was no season. I also understand that they are young and maybe talented- there are signs of that- and they are going to make mistakes so lets hope that they have learned a lesson. I am willing to give them the OFFSEASON since Cowher is not coming to NY . If in the offseason their pursue for FA players is timid and mediocre and they make stupid moves, like trading Chad for a third or 4th round pick etc then Reality itself will kick their ass.
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seanmac, it’s not that Chad can’t hit any short outs, it’s that he is unreliable with a pass that should be routine and DBs know it and jump the pattern. Since you said you’ve seen every Chad snap, let’s relive each of his INTs (you will notice a trend):
At Buffalo, Week 4:
2nd and 9 at NYJ 21 (10:08) C.Pennington pass short left intended for L.Coles INTERCEPTED by J.Greer at NYJ 27. J.Greer pushed ob at NYJ 25 for 2 yards (L.Coles). Receiver and coverage along sideline.
1st and 10 at BUF 39 (:11) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short right intended for J.McCareins INTERCEPTED by T.McGee [A.Schobel] at BUF 31.
At Giants, Week 5:
2nd and 15 at NYG 37 (5:13) (No Huddle) C.Pennington pass short left intended for J.Cotchery INTERCEPTED by S.Madison at NYG 31. S.Madison pushed ob at NYJ 44 for 25 yards (C.Baker).
1st and 10 at NYG 23 (12:36) (No Huddle) C.Pennington pass deep right intended for J.Cotchery INTERCEPTED by A.Ross [J.Butler] at NYG 2.
2nd and 5 at NYJ 39 (3:28) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short right intended for J.Cotchery INTERCEPTED by A.Ross at NYJ 43. A.Ross for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Home against Eagles, Week 7:
3rd and 3 at 50 (6:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Pennington pass deep left intended for B.Smith INTERCEPTED by S.Brown at PHI 30. S.Brown to PHI 30 for no gain (B.Smith).
At Cincy, Week 8:
3rd and 11 at NYJ 34 (:46) (Shotgun) C.Pennington pass short left intended for L.Coles INTERCEPTED by J.Joseph at NYJ 42. J.Joseph for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
At Tenn., Week 16:
1st and 10 at NYJ 20 (2:07) C.Pennington pass deep right intended for J.Cotchery INTERCEPTED by R.Hill at NYJ 40. R.Hill to NYJ 40 for no gain (J.Cotchery).
3rd and 8 at TEN 8 (2:00) C.Pennington pass short left intended for B.Smith INTERCEPTED by K.Bulluck at TEN -7. Touchback.
To recap, that’s 6 of 9 INTs on short outs, 2 returned for TDs, and one in the redzone. Of his 3 deep pass INTs, the one against the Giants was in the redzone. So, 4 of his 9 INTs either resulted in an immediate TD for the opposition or denied the Jets a scoring opportunity. Generally, there’s no good time for an INT, but nearly all of Chad’s INTs were particularly inopportune. Remember, most of Chad’s supporters cite his decisionmaking as a strength…Chad’s made lots of bad decisions this season.
Now, I don’t have a stats database to draw from, but I compared Chad to Sage Rosenfels. They have similar numbers in terms of attempts, completions and QB rating. Rosenfels had 15 TDs and 12 INTs and the majority were on short passes. Rosenfels did not have a single short pass INT returned for a TD. Why? Well, that’s because Rosenfels can throw deep and DBs have to respect that and are less likely to jump his patterns. It’s not because of a good OL or running game, the Texans have a terrible OL and poor running game. Their best WR, Andre Johnson, was injured most of the year. And, Rosenfels is a journeyman, at best.
When your starting QB cannot out-perform the Sage Rosenfelses of the NFL, it’s time for a change.
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Schlichter says:
someone wrote were were a field goal from the afc championship with chad, and i like chad, but the steelers were destroyed by ne in the subsequent champ game, and i believe the same thing would have happened to us. still, that san diego game was fantastic…but back to the topic at hand…even when chad does well and the offensive line holds up, those timing patterns and soft ‘touch’ passes get his recievers killed..remember coles in the minnesota game…je sets his recievers up to take huge hits. lets stay with clemens and hope he improves as he matures, gains experience, and the ol gets better. chad’s arm is too damn weak to win a super bowl unless we have some kind of an ’8 bears kind of d….and that ain’t gonna happen
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’85 bears
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muff says:
sack, i think some of these examples are being used out of the context your intending. for instance the 2nd INT vs buffalo, was under a minute, with no timeouts left. pennington was between a rock and a hard place. either make a low % throw and hope it works out or have time run out. same thing in cincy and the aaron ross return. time was of the essence. i really only had problems with a/b 4 of those ints.
the thing is, i just can’t see the FO making the decision to move on. there is a good chance and this is rarely talked a/b, mangini and tannanbaum need to win in 2008 for job security. so the question now becomes, can this regime survive a 6 – 10 season? i doubt it.
i understand all your points, everything is well thought out and detailed, but there is just no better option in house or through free agency that would give the jets the best shot at winning football games next year. even though you could be right a/b pennington, i just can’t see any other starter in wk 1 with so much on the line for the coaches and GM. even more signs pointing to pennington, is the awful production from the KC run offense. i really agree with the point seanmac made when he said, “all the things that gave pennington problems gave clemons even more problems.” thats a huge statement and your kidding yourself if you think mangini doesn’t know that.
another point i’d like to add a/b this is that according to the football outsiders web site, in 2006 pennigton was the 12th ranked qb overall. maybe now i’m thinking too much with my heart rather than my head, but shouldn’t he get a mulligan just because there is a chance that your argument against chad could have been factors that he had little control over?
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muff, IMO, Chad deteriorated in ’07. Most people blame the OL, but I cited his actual INTs because in many of those instances, he wasn’t under duress, he just made either poor decisions or he just could not make NFL-quality throws. In ’07, Chad actually had a higher QB rating than in ’06, but his on-the-filed performance was awful. I compared him to Rosenfels to show that, again IMO, a decent journeyman may actually be better than Chad at this point in his career. Also, IMO, his lack of arm strength has put a tremendous amount of pressure on the running game, which always faces 8-9 men in the box, and as Schlichter points out, his WRs are taking vicious blows from LBs and safeties. I hate to say it, but Chad hurt the Jets this year and I just don’t believe keeping him on the roster helps Clemens or the team. It’s a harsh reality for a nice guy.
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vurtualife says:
Some great comments in this thread, though I’d have to agree strongly with all the points made by Sackdance99 and dbatesman — it’s time to move forward w/out Chad as starter. Whether or not Clemens is our future is another debate, though I echo the sentiments made by some here that it is simply too early to grade him at this point. Although I don’t have the exact stats, etc. nearby, didn’t both Romo and Gerrard [to use 2 current playoff QBs] sit their first 3-4 yrs [or more] as backups before finally being deemed “ready” to be pro starting QBs? And, though both have had great runs to this point, haven’t both made some egregious throwing errors in some key games? In fact, anyone watching tonight’s game vs. the Steelers saw Gerrard throw a couple of bad INTs, only to come through in the end with a win.
Point is — it’s WAY to early to call Clemens a bust. In fact, there were some encouraging things we saw in his 7 starts: poise, great arm, and play-making ability. Another year of reflection/practice and a stronger, rebuilt O-Line may go a long way towards not only improving his accuracy and poise in the pocket, but also open up the run game, putting less pressure on Clemens to throw and set up play-action. [as an aside, I am predicting a monster year from T.Jones and L.Washington, assuming the FO does its job and does indeed bolster our O-Line]. -
Slight edit to my above comment: “putting less pressure on Clemens to throw and set up play-action.” — for clarity, read that as: “putting less pressure on Clemens to throw and generating more effective play-action plays.”
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klecko71 says:
hey…anyone have a flashback when they saw the third down QB run by ben with 250 left and 2 timeouts left for the jags??
cmon…think…
i will wait to see if anyone knows what flashback i mean…
and in the meantime…lets take solace in that the jets arent the only franchise that makes MORONIC calls that lose playoff games,at that point, u gotta throw for the first down or at least roll ben right and give him a pass option so maybe the run has a better chance of working. playing loser ball there so u make the jags use timeout number 2????? at that point it didnt matter b/c u punted from ur 25….got a 35-38 yd punt which is normal in those conditions, and handed the ball back to the jags at the 50 after a 10 yd return. AND PROOF of the lack of concern about the timeouts at that pt….del rio chose to challenge a play that looked pretty much a lock to be upheld….on the chance he might get lucky…even though it cost him his last timeout. he was smart…he is at the 50…with 230 left…odds are u will either get in field goal range in plenty of time or just give it up on downs and lose…u wont need the last timeout.
what a brutal play call by pitt there.
i await comparisons to a similar play in jet playoff history….
Absolutely brilliant commentary. too bad Cimini, Rock and their counterparts don’t display the same insight to compliment their access.
One thing I hope you will address is the need for continuity on special teams. I consider Westoff’s retirement to be the single largest loss for the Jets. Hopefully he’s been grooming an asst to take over as STC.
I am also optimistic to see how the team develops with the one-two punches of Washington & Miller and then Harris & Vilma (assuming the older guys aren’t traded for linemen).
I also agree with your observation that the team stuck together remarkably well despite an awful season. The 2006 Giants show how quickly a team can crack up. I’ll chalk that up as a testament to Mangini and Pennington.