Chat Hijack: Draft Strategy Edition
Is Kellen Clemens toast? Should the Jets nab McFadden or Long? These questions and more after the jump.
Thanks as always to zenlaw for corralling these for me!
Joe (NY): Big fan Mel, draft day is my favorite day of the year. Do you think that the Jets aren’t convinced Kellen Clemens is the answer at QB? He wasn’t very impressive although just a rookie. Any chance they pick my boy Matty Ice? WIll he still be there at 6? Thanks.
Mel Kiper: In terms of the draft, you just drafted Clemens not too long ago. What has happened, they have to assess that internally. He hasn’t shown enough to guarantee it yet, but he’s still young. And it’s not like he has a lot of weapons to throw to. DE, OLB, WR and OL are key needs for them. They don’t have a difference maker at OLB. A DE in that 3-4. Those are the areas you’re looking at. Evaluating Clemens, you have to look at the WR spot. They don’t have a big time WR. That’s something they have to look at. If you want to evaluate Clemens, put some weapons around him. And they need a bluechip on the DL and an impact LB.
Brian Bassett: Investing a second round pick into Kellen Clemens was intentional, and as we’ve talked about a lot at TJB he should get a real shot. Whoever starts at QB next season, they deserve an offensive line that can keep defenders from getting surgically attached to the QB’s shoulder pads. If the Jets use a pick to nab “Matty Ice” they’ve used two (and wasted one) draft pick in three years on one position that only one player can fill and left valuable needs (offensive line, defensive front seven) open for yet another year. Picking Matt Ryan now would be monumentally foolish after letting Cutler and Leinart go just two years ago.
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Chris (NYC): Mel, Is there a chance Chris Long will be there for the Jets at 6, or would they have to move up a couple spots? It seems they’d have to, he’s the perfect fit for the 3-4 front.
Brian Bassett: I can’t imagine that Chris long will last until #6, but anything can happen. Not many thought that JaMarcus Russell would surpass Brady Quinn in late 2006, but perceptions changed. The good news is that there are other players who could be good fits for the Jets in that top ten should Long be off the board. Miami might be too high for Long, Saint Louis and Atlanta just took defensive linemen in last year’s draft high, so my initial thought is that if Long can make it past Oakland, he’s might be clear for the Jets.
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Blaise: (Central Islip NY):: Do you think the Jets will get Darren McFadden?
Brian Bassett: McFadden’s a great player and people are seeing visisions of Adrian Peterson … I understand that and appreciate it, but the difference is the Jets need to address the line first. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are enough talent for this team for the meantime.
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Garb ( Mass): Any chance Jets get Fitzgerald for 6th pick in draft and either coles or vilma
Brian Bassett: I don’t exactly understand the question, but giving up the 6th pick of the draft AND a player for Larry Fitzgerald is just the kind of trade talk that we try to avoid at this website. It’s completely lopsided and there’s no way that the current Jets Front Office makes this trade.
Leave your thoughts in the comments!
Filed under: Main Page, Opinion/Bassett
i think SD 99 is secretly joe in NY
Think about this! If I were running the team again we would defintely be in position to draft anyone we wanted. With that said should we really use a number 6 pick on a linemen? Maybe it would be best to trade down a few spots, get extra draft picks, and then draft linemen.
I Agree.
I agree too. No more linemen with top 10 picks.
I mean offensive linemen.
The way things seem to be right now (Chris and Jay Long been selected between 1 and 5) we are left only with Vernon Gholston.
Now the question is if he is worth the 6th pick, if not… we do have to trade and the only way we can trade down is if McFadden is still on the board. This is tough! The Chiefs win may indeed come back to bite our ass. We may not be able to fill a need with best talent and trading up is too costly!
And what about us, finding players like Bradshaw, Boss, Cofield, Jacobs etc? Instead of Schlegel, Smith, Puciask, Coleman, Adams, Bender
Vilma to Cinci for Johnson. That allows us to trade Coles or Penny to move up and draft Long (or MCfadden-that’s who I would take). Johnson and MCfadden would add some fire power to our offense. Of course, I have no idea about the cap hits for these trades.
At #6, we take best available OG, OT, NT/DT, DE. Or we trade down to get multiple picks. We should not be thinking skill position player until 3rd round. Coles & Cotch were fine when we had an OL that could pass block, they will be fine again.
Call me monumentally foolish, then (and muff, I’m not Joe in NY; although, he asked a great question to which Kiper gave a terrible answer, who is Mel Kiper, anyhow?) (as anyone who reads my posts regularly, I think Kiper is pretty good at talent evaluation, but in any other aspect, like team building, I take whatever he says with a huge grain of salt). The Chargers, who, IMO, have amassed the most talented team in the NFL, drafted Drew Brees with the first pick of the second round (which is like a 1st round pick) in ‘01 and, without really giving Brees that much of a shot, drafted Manning (with the no.1 overall pick and traded for Rivers) in ‘04 and, in another shot at a QB, drafted Charle Whitehurst in the 3rd round of ‘06. Three QBs drafted in the first 3 rounds in 6 years. While universally condemned as a jerk, A.J. Smith is my vote for the most astute judge of talent in the NFL and it’s not surprising that the Chargers have invested so heavily in QB with a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick in 6 years.
Bassett, my other quibble with your argument is why the focus on the first round for front seven or OL help? Going back to the Chargers, their 2-7th round front seven or OL picks include players like: Sean Phillips, Igor Olshansky, Shane Olivea, Matt Wilhelm, Nick Hardwick, and Brick’s doppelganger, Marcus McNeil, who made an unbelievably great block on Sproles’ screen pass…something the air-blocker never does. Also, Kris Dielman, their stud LG, was an UNDRAFTED free agent signee (yes, that’s 4/5 of the line either drafted 2-7 or signed off the street…only Mike Goff was a UFA signing at RG). So, there’s lots of ways to improve the Jets, but IMO, it all starts with the right QB.
If the argument is to give KC more time and the right weapons…sure. No weapon was going to be obtained with the first pick. And, why wouldn’t taking McFadden be “monumentally foolish?” By my count, the Jets have 2 backs that can be every down backs in the NFL. The Jets only have a broken down veteran QB, a 2nd year QB, who didn’t exactly set the world on fire, and Tui, who has done nothing in the NFL, despite his chances. So, considering how much more important QB is, wouldn’t it be more foolish to draft McFadden? And, I like McFadden and would draft him over Matty Ice if he were available. But, let’s face it, if the goal is to fill holes, RB is not a hole, while QB is a gaping chasm; hell, it’s the friggin’ Grand Canyon.
Trading down sounds all good and fine but its not that easy, if the big names are gobbled up early as they usually are the #6 pick is usually not that valuable. The only hope is that Mcfadden falls to #6 or all of the QB’s are available and a team that really needs one offers to trade up for one (eg Vikings). I wish the draft wasnt 4 months away, the big boards will begin to clear up after the senior bowl/combine then thats when the draft talk should really start.
Toon wins the kewpie doll for being 100% right. Let’s hope Tangini agrees.
MS poses an interesting trade though. What I like about it is both teams trade amazing talents who are damaged goods (and I don’t mean injury either).
I would make that deal in a minute if I were either team.
harlan
Read a very interesting article in Sporting News by Brian Baldinger saying that McFadden will not be a good pro. Baldinger likes Felix Jones much better. Not sure how astute Baldinger is, but he raised some good points. Such as, McF initiates contact and has poor field vision.
the jets have shown very little ability to pick offensive line talent (Not counting Nick Mangold), so I’m hoping they can utilize free agency, to turn the offensive line around. I’d take a proven vet at right guard that can give me 4 solid to great years, over a rookie that might be great 10 years. You can always draft a project in the lower rounds, and hope he’s ready to step in, 3 years down the road.
Looking at the giants yesterday, their defense really carried them. I don’t think one of our defensive lineman could crack their lineup.
When a QB’s nickname is derived from a watered-down beer that is almost unanimously regarded as crap, people need to stop repeating what one commentator regarded as genius. QB is not as big a whole as the “wide-mouth” beer can some people on this board make it out to be.
There’s some great depth in this year’s draft and we can only hope its addressed.
imo…every team in the playoffs has what in common…they all have a good oline…thats where we should dump our money…build a monster line through the FA market…which in turn will give the qb time to drop back and throw to a reciever who will have the time to get open…TJ and LEON will find the holes that will be provided by the oline…try your hardest to get chad johnson to upgrade our WR position…that said…macfadden and a qb will be a waisted pick in the draft…if macfadden will even be available…that is…if he is…trade down and build your deffense through the draft…well we’ll also have to rework some contracts for any of this to happen…
It’s important for the Jets to seriously evaluate the talent available with the 6th pick. mbi makes an excellent point in this thread by saying that trading down will not be an option for the Jets unless McFadden happens to fall (an unlikely scenario).
As for the Jets’ o-line picks, you can’t blame them for D’Brick. He was on everyone’s radar as the #1 OL that year. Last year, Joe Thomas was the #1 OL and he ended up being great. These things are so hard to predict.
That being said, OL talent can be found (1) in rounds 2-4 and (2) through free agency (e.g. kendall, mawae). Look at what Minn did with their OL by acquiring Hutcheson.
Another position too consider that does not get too much talk is a tough blocking TE or FB. This past weekend, the Packers, Giants, and Patriots all succeeded running the ball with a powerful lead blocker in the backfield (and/or end). I’m not convinced that the Jets have that type of impact player to make holes in the running game.
This draft, according to Mike Mayock and other draft pundits, is weak at interior OL, so forget a 1st, 2nd or 3rd round OG. OT is deeper, especially RT (Cherlious and Otah, among others, are not considered NFL LT’s, but block well enough to be RTs), but taking an RT at 6 is a huge mistake…why do that when what you want could be in rounds 2-4? If the idea is BPA + need, then it’s probably a defensive pick…or QB. I don’t think we have to worry about the Jets drafting McFadden. One year after trading for Thomas Jones, I’d be shocked if the Jets draft an RB at 6 and I’d be equally shocked if Atlanta passes on McFadden.
Rich, I’m curious about how McFadden does at the Combine or his pro day. If his 40 comes in at under 4.40, then he’ll be a top 5 pick. He’s 6-2 and thin (215, ideal would be 10 lbs heavier), but with sprinter’s speed, he probably doesn’t need the great field vision of other backs, he just has to get to the outside. Also, he seems to ramp up to full speed pretty quickly and he has the type of versatility that scouts drool at: he played at times WR & QB. Imagine the possibilities with McFadden at tailback and B. Smith in the slot?
No Dakar. Every team in Playoffs have stability at QB. Look at NE/GB/IND. Once they solved their QB problem, they get 12-15 yrs of 1st round picks to focus on other needs. So I do agree with SD99 that with the 6th pick, if Chris Long is gone, then simply trade back or take the best QB available. If KC ends up being good within the nxt 2 yrs then we can trade him for a good player too.
figured it would be worth sharing the draft point board…
Round 1
1 3,000
2 2,600
3 2,200
4 1,800
5 1,700
6 1,600
7 1,500
8 1,400
9 1,350
10 1,300
11 1,250
12 1,200
13 1,150
14 1,100
15 1,050
16 1,000
17 950
18 900
19 875
20 850
21 800
22 780
23 760
24 740
25 720
26 700
27 680
28 660
29 640
30 620
31 600
32 590
Round 2
33 580
34 560
35 550
36 540
37 530
38 520
39 510
40 500
41 490
42 480
43 470
44 460
45 450
46 440
47 430
48 420
49 410
50 400
51 390
52 380
53 370
54 360
55 350
56 340
57 330
58 320
59 310
60 300
61 292
62 284
63 276
64 270
etc…
when talking about QB – give KC a chance!!
Look at Eli Manning – it’s taken him 5 years to get any respect whatsoever, and now he’s in the NFC championship game. The Giants, as much as I don’t like them, made a bet on Eli and have stuck with him.
Even with the sixth pick in a draft that looks like it has five true elite prospects (Glenn Dorsey, Jake Long, Chris Long, Darren McFadden, and Matt Ryan), we should still look to trade down. In fact, even if someone else rockets up the board (Brian Brohm? Kenny Phillips?) and Chris Long somehow slides down to #6, we still need to trade down; we need too many upgrades at too many spots to pass up the opportunity to add picks. I’d like to trade down and pick up an extra 3rd (and possibly trade down again, or trade down with our second rounder, and get an extra 4th), and end up in the #15-#20 range.
Needs, in order of importance:
1) Passrusher (3-4 OLB / 4-3 DE): Chris Long would be nice, but whomever is left at 15-20 from the Gholston/Derrick Harvey/Quentin Groves group would work just fine.
2) LG or RT: Equal priorities. We need two more quality linemen, (possibly three); one can be from Free Agency (there’s lots of good options) and the other should be at the top of the second round.
3) NT: We need bulk in the middle to prevent getting gashed against the run. Slim pickings on the draft side. Haynesworth won’t escape Tennessee; I’d love to sign Ethan Kelley from CLE and then use a late round pick on a developmental prospect.
4) RT or LG: See #2.
5) DE/DT: Even with we address the nose, our 3/4 ends aren’t difference makers either; only Ellis is anything more than a journeyman stopgap (and barely that.)
6) CB: Revis is a stud, but Poteat is really nothing more than a #4 on a good team. We need more quality playmakers here. Doubt we can win any of the bidding wars on the quality FA’s, though…
7) ILB: Linebackers are the heart of the 3-4, and as good as David Harris is, there are two ILB’s, not one. And even if we keep Vilma, we can’t count on him yet.
8) Passrusher: See #1 – and remember that every dominant sack artist needs a quality bookend to keep OL’s honest. Bryan Thomas isn’t that.
9) WR: I know Coles and Cotch aren’t gamebreakers, but this just isn’t pressing enough to be any higher on the list. If we can pull a rabbit out of a hat (like Javon Walker or Bernard Berrian), we should, but if we fix the OL, the passing game will improve monumentally even without adding a weapon. Plus, Smith and Wright have promise and Chansi Stuckey might as well.
10) QB: Chad is done. His cap number is big enough; his arm is small enough; and his displeasure at sitting is significant enough that he has to go. However, we need a contingency plan in case Clemens can’t hack it. It’s never a bad idea to draft a good prospect at QB if you can find one on Day Two.
11) FB: Having a true blocking back would add a nice dimension to the power game.
Free Agency:
Add: FB Tony Richardson, MIN; G/T Shawn Andrews, CIN; G/T Max Starks, PIT; NT Ethan Kelley, CLE; OLB Clark Haggans, PIT; CB/S Eugene Wilson, NE
Drop: Chad Pennington, Justin McCariens, Anthony Clement, Dewayne Robertson (cap number), Eric Barton, David Barrett, Erik Coleman
Draft:
Round 1
17 (17): OLB/DE Derrick Harvey, Florida
Round 2
5 (36): T/G Michael Oher, Ole Miss
Round 3
4 (67): LB Shawn Crable, Michigan
16 (79): CB Antoine Cason, Arizona [via trading down]
Round 4
3 (100): QB Dennis Dixon, Oregon
20 (117): NT/DT Dre Moore, Maryland [via trading down]
Round 5
6 (142): G Chris McDuffie, Clemson
Round 6
5 (177): LB/S Alvin Bowen, Iowa State
27 (199): RB/FB Jehuu Caulcrick, Michigan State [via trading down]
Round 7
4 (216): DE/DT Carl Powell, Virginia Tech
Nice work from Mike and eric from morrisania! Would Dallas be interested in our 6th pick for their two late first rounds picks?? The points work out. This would give us an extra first round along with trading some 4-3 players for picks, we could build this team through the draft. As much as I want a big name free agent here, it kills the cap and lets face it, we are not one year away from the super bowl. This front office seems to do better with the draft vs. free agents anyway.
My wish list… LG, RT, NT, LB, WR, CB in that order (a lot of holes to fill)
Great thoughts, guys. Some information:
MS: Approximate cap hits if traded – Pennington 6/7m, Vilma 2m, Coles none. Savings in 2008: Chad 5m, Vilma 2m, Coles 5m (but don’t discount the cost of replacing these guys).
Rich: Baldinger’s article was very controversial and widely criticised (sic) by a lot of people. Fair to say he’s out on a limb with that one. He’s right that injuries could be an issue though (although he’s more durable than Peterson, who is the same size).
Eric: Oher is staying in school.
Every team in the playoffs also has a franchise QB with the ability to throw the deep out. Three of the four are also 6-4 or over, the exception is Favre. Can KC become Brett Favre? Favre has one of the strongest arms in NFL history and a pretty quick release. He also was pretty good starting in his second year as a pro. You really can’t say his team was all that good, in ‘91 the Pack was 4-12; with Brett in ‘92 it went to 9-7 and in his storied 16 year career, the Pack has been under .500 once. Now, many of those years the Pack had, at best, a mediocre line and running game. Brett’s play elevated the team. And, that’s my point. We can all point to the piss poor OL, but a great, or even good, QB can elevate an offense. KC just did not elevate the offense and he struggled completing passes.
Buiding the OL is important, but San Diego’s OL was built with talent from the 2nd through 7th rounds, along with an undrafted FA and 1 UFA, who wasn’t a household name. The Pats, I think, only have 1 first-rounder (Mankins). The Giants have, I think, no first rounders. So, there’s lots of ways to build the OL that don’t involve the first round.
And, I guess, as Favre and Brady have shown, teams can get to the Super Bowl without a first-round QB (but, Brett was chosen in the second round, then traded for a first-rounder, so his value was pretty high…could the Jets trade KC for a first-rounder?). If the Jets improve the OL and defense, KC might be good enough to get the team to 7-9 and as high as 10-6, but the goal is to compete with the Pats and until we have a credible threat at QB, that won’t happen.
I like all the draft and UFA prognostications, but what’s all the love for Max Starks? He lost his RT job, got put in at LT because of injury to the starter, and now is injured himself. He lost his job to, I think, a 6th rounder…Willie Colon from Hofstra. Why pay for a guy, coming off a benching and injury, when the Jets might be able to find an undrafted FA who can do the same job?
I have my own UFA list: Lilja (LG), Locklear (RT), Berrian, Bryant Johnson or Justin Gage (WR), Corey Williams (NT/DT) or for a pure NT Isaac Sapoaga, Suggs (OLB) and a guy under the radar Calvin Pace (OLB-6-4, 272). More importantly, I want one of the Ryan twins to be the DC.
If we’re shooting for KC to be Eli, we’re shooting pretty low: career completion pct. of 54.7 and a 73.4 QB rating. I think KC can approach Eli, in the AFC, that means 6-10 to 10-6, if we’re lucky.
FYI – Looks like Laurinaitis is staying in school.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/football/ncaa/01/14/laurinaitis.staying.ap/index.html
SackDance – What I think Eli shows is that given time, a good QB can develop into a much better one. As I’ve written on this board before, look at the 2 QBs that were given time to develop behind Drew Bledsoe. Teams run into trouble when they keep looking for the next best thing and don’t give the talent they have time to develop. Bassett’s linked article today about Atari Bigby is an example of this.
Thanks for the props Harlan. Not to make us re-live the pain, nut yet another Bradway screw-up: traded #22 & #13 (1930 pts) for D-rob @ #4 (1800). And it was not like D-Rob was a household name – he moved up the Board steadily from late Janaury to April.
If you want to bring that up, how can you forget Doug Jolley for #23 or whatever it was…could have drafted Luis Castillio
Ouch, dont start bringing up Jets Draft woes and what players they could have had with certain picks. For the record Doug Jolley was the stupidest move ever, I remember seeing that on ESPN and being so pissed I almost gave up being a jet fan right there.
If anyone wants to educate themselves about the draft, I recommend a simple exercise.
Find a pre-combine rating of players from a source you think is credible. Compare it to a post combine list (preferably but not necessarily from the same source). The players high on both lists are the studs who produce and have measurables. The guys only high on the post combine list will usually be the players who turn out to be busts (they did not impress/produce in college but test well). The last group, the good players who drop because of the combine will consist mostly of Schlegels (good college players who cannot move to he next level and who must be avoided with higher picks) and a very, very select few who did not test well. Luckily, this last group can sometimes be found by scouting or by team workouts.
We must avoid workout warriors (and just college players) with any of our first four picks. We pick early enough that our 3rd is not much worse than the Pat’s second.
h
Bent: Oher is coming out, not staying in school.
http://www.olemisssports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=2600&ATCLID=1368630
In any event, Oher, Gosder Cherilus, Anthony Collins, and possibly Duke Robinson (if he comes out) are all quality line prospects we should look at at the top of Round 2.
SachDance99: The love for Max Starks is strategic, not genuine. In my plan, Starks was part of my acquisition plan; I started with aiming for Stacey Andrews, a mammoth, young RT who could easily play any of the line positions (other than center); he’s the stud here. I also planned on using a 2nd and 5th rounder for two more offensive linemen. Starks I would advocate going for because, like you said, he’s coming off an injury and lost his starting job, so he’d be cheap, but he is big and does have some potential. We could sign him to a reasonable deal and see if he pans out; he could potentially move inside and beat out Brandon Moore (and he’s definitely be an upgrade over Adrian Clarke), or even serve as insurance if D’Brick doesn’t continue to improve.
Bottom line is, best case scenario (D’Brick gets better) we only have two good offensive linemen, so to think we can just add one or two new OL’s to the unit is wishful thinking. We need both quality and depth; Starks makes sense as part of a larger plan to fix the OL. But, I’m not planning on just handing him a starting job on a silver platter; he’s there for depth and competition.
It’s obvious to me right now that the New York Jets just don’t understand what the draft is all about
If you look at the teams that are consistently at the top of the sport, you’ll find good QB play and good play along both the offensive and defensive line. Those teams, however, don’t always acquire their QB at the top of the draft; QB’s can be found in later rounds or free agency. However, their early round draft selections are always heavy towards the OL and DL. Quality line play is the most important thing, always. The FA class is deep in linemen, but we should still be mixing in youth.
And please, no Darren McFadden and no Matt Ryan. TJ and Leon could easily combine for 2000 yds if we had 5 linemen who could block; by my count we have one (Mangold). And give Clemens a chance. I’m all for using a pick on a good QB prospect, but no earlier than round 3. I’d much rather have Vernon Gholston and Erik Ainge than Matt Ryan and Jameel McClain. We don’t know whether or not Clemens will be a good pro. I’d say the jury’s out on Bryan Thomas, though…
First three picks should be OL or defensive Front 7. Period.
Honestly, I’m running out of good options for who we should take at 6. Everyone says C Long will be gone. The other 5 guys in Scouts Inc’s top 6 are McFadden (won’t drop to us), J Long (ditto), Dorsey and Ellis (poor fits for our system), and Ryan (who might be the best QB in this class, but who I just don’t think is that good compared to Cutler, Leinart and other recent first-rounders). So, the next options are Laurinaitis, Gholston… anyone else? I love D Harvey and K Phillips, but neither is worthy of #6.
Bottom line: either one of the top 6 is going to fall, and someone will want to trade up to our spot to get them… or we’re going to have to be happy with one of the OSU guys.
Miami is going to pick M. Ryan, who will be a soper star qb, and then we’ll have to contend with brady and ryan in the same division.
People do realize that Michael Oher is a top 10 pick, not a second rounder, no?
Sack, you’ve got to stop flogging this 6′4″ strapping manly man stuff. Please. Off the top of my head, since 1999, the Super Bowl or Championship games have featured Kurt Warner, Rich Gannon, Kurt Warner, Kordell Stewart, Rich Gannon, Jake Delhomme, Michael Vick, Jake Delhomme, Jake Plummer, Rex Grossman, Drew Brees and now Brett Favre, all of whom are in the 6′2″ and under club. In three of the years, one of them was MVP of the league at the time. The Cowboys went 13-3 with 6′2″ Tony Romo, but alas, he was undone by his missing two inches in the divisional round. If Clemens doesn’t pan out, it’s not going to be because he was too short. (He wasn’t too short in college to complete a higher percentage of his passes than strapping Matty Ice.)
That said, I agree with you that San Diego is kind of a good model for the argument that you don’t ignore the quarterback position just because you’ve drafted one recently. Quarterbacks retain their value even when they are sitting on the bench, which is why a team like Green Bay was consistently able to get value out of guys they drafted who never played for them outside of the preseason. (San Diego, in contrast, pretty much screwed the pooch when it came to getting value for Brees.) Matt Schaub was a trade waiting to happen for Atlanta, and while they picked the wrong year to actually move him, they were able to take a third round investment and turn it into a high second round pick. So the fact that a quarterback can’t play doesn’t mean that he’s a bad pick up, even on the first day. Just not at the top of the first round, unless he’s had a college career that would justify the selection.
Oher would be a great bookend to Ferguson. He projects as a LT in the NFL, no? It wouldn’t seem prudent to use another top 10 pick on a RT.
Zenlaw- People tend to look at each draft year as if it was self-contained, but they’re not, and front offices are aware of how future draft classes are shaping up as well as the current class. Ferguson was the top OL in his class, Thomas was the top OL in his class, but the opinion was pretty unanimous that Thomas was a better prospect. It is random in the sense that you can’t line up when you’re going to be bad to correspond to the talent- some teams are bad in the right year and draft Peyton Manning, and some teams are bad in the wrong year and draft Alex Smith (or Matt Ryan, for that matter). But it’s not random in the sense that NFL evaluators don’t know what they are doing, because almost all of them would have rated Thomas above Ferguson if they were coming out at the same time. And all that said, it’s not like the Jets swung and missed with Ferguson. He’s a good player at a very difficult position to address, and he has room to get better. He’s not playing up to his draft billing, but that’s why you don’t generally want to get stuck at the top of the draft, because at best guys will play to their paycheck, and often they won’t. What they’ll never do is outplay their contract.
I would point out that the draft is simply a part of the team construction process, not a miracle elixir. If last year’s draft was done over, both Revis and Harris would be top fifteen picks- the front office hit the ball out of the park in what was a very shallow draft. But it all added up to 4-12 and one of the worst defenses in football. We’ll talk our heads off about all these players for the next few months, but come September, they’ll just be guys on the field. You put together a good team by consistently picking up good players over a series of years. Good front offices establish themselves over time with quality player evaluation and a firm philosophy. This front office is off to a good if not spectacular start- Ferguson, Mangold, Washington, Revis and Harris are all players who you can build around, and Clemens is still a very worthwhile experiment from a skill set to cap number perspective; if he doesn’t pan out, he hasn’t cost the team much, and they won’t be saddled with a lot of dead money moving forward. We’ll see if it works out- Terry Bradway had a clear plan and wasn’t able to pull it off, so plans aren’t everything. But I feel comfortable with Tannenbaum and Mangini pulling the trigger based on the way they’ve approached personnel acquisition to this point.
Oher is probably not a top 10 pick. He’s clearly behind Jake Long, Ryan Clady, and Jeff Otah, and probably at the top of the next tier with Sam Baker, Gosder Cherilus, and Anthony Collins. He won’t go any higher than the mid-twenties.
Many mocks have him in the high second round, which is probably why it took him so long to officially declare. If he has a good pro day, best case scenario he can pass Otah for the #3 OL spot off the board, but that still won’t get him any higher than 15 overall.
jet4life…it all starts up front…brady manning and farv wont be able to do anything without their ol protection…put either 1 of those QBs behind this line of ours and they wont be able to complete a pass just like penn and clemons…they would be runing for their lives just like our QBs were running for theirs…when anyone of the above mentioned QBs has gotten pressured throughout a game they throw int’s like there going out of style…its been proven true of brady manning and favr…just look at farv…last year his line wasn’t as good as it was this year…what happened…i think he lead the leauge in int’s…so believe me…it all starts up front…plus i said in awhole bunch of other posts to spend big on RG,LG and an RT in free agency…rework contracts to recoup money…then through the draft you concentrate all you have on building the deffense…to draft a RB or QB will be a waist of money and not to mention a draftpick…
I’ll be shocked of Oher doesn’t go in the top fifteen come draft day, and I think he’ll make a better left tackle than Jake Long when all is said and done. Long strikes me as more of a right tackle at the next level. I’ll say this- if Oher is available at the top of the second round, the team should run their card up to the podium. Not only does he have the mass to hold up well on the right side, but he gives you tremendous insurance should Ferguson either not progress or get hurt. He would basically be filling two roster slots at once.
its easier to build the deffensive line through the draft than it is the offensive line…you need expierance on the O-LINE…i wouldn’t mind long…but seriously…its harder to play on the O-LINE than it is on D-LINE…just like its easier to play reciever than it is to play CB…we need offensive linemen who can read a deffense and react…free agency is the way to go for the offensive line…draft is for the deffense…imo