SuperBowl Fallout: Strike While the Iron’s Hot
Over this week, we’ll be looking at some of the fallout of the SuperBowl to the NFL. Today’s topic? It’s time to get competitive for the Jets.
I’m a firm believer in that you have to worry about bettering your team rather than what other teams in your division do, but 2008 is a good chance for the Jets to gain some competitive steam for their division.
Now if anyone could be the exception to the general rule, it would be the Patriots. But looking at the history of SuperBowl losers for the past seven years, it’s not an easy road when your are on a SuperBowl hangover:
2000 Titans — 13-3, reached playoffs.
2001 Giants — 7-9
2002 Rams — 7-9
2003 Raiders — 4-12
2004 Panthers — 7-9
2005 Eagles — 6-10
2006 Seahawks — 10-6, one play off win.
2007 Bears — 7-9
2008 Patriots — ???
With a large amount of cap space, a promising slotting for the draft, some potential veterans on the trade block for picks and new management in Buffalo and Miami, the Jets have a great opportunity to take a big step forward in 2008.
46 Responses to SuperBowl Fallout: Strike While the Iron’s Hot
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steviek says:
A pass rush didn’t start being important yesterday. It’s how to stop any big QB. Get in his face. Remember the win in NE?
The question is how do you get from pt A to pt B? It’s tough to generate pressure with 3 lineman, regardless of who they are, so there has to be a quality edge rusher in the 3-4. It was supposed to be B.Thomas. We’ll see if the FO thinks if he’s much of an answer. -
dakar says:
to be honest…with all the needs we need…i dont see any wrong moves that can be made this offseason by the FO…unless the trade rumor i just read is made…our 1st round pick and J-CO for chad johnson…this will be a hugh mistake…a very high price for 1 player…unless we get their 9th pick of the 1st round then i would have to think twice about it…
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mbi says:
I think the recent superbowl hangover has been more of the NFC being real weak (they have lost 7 of the last 9). A lot of those teams that made it to the superbowl really werent that good. The pats are too talented for a down year, I see them coming back extra motivated next year. I do not want chad johnson and I esp do not want to give up a first rounder for him. He wasnt even the best WR on his team – he’s also a constant headache. I get the vibe this FO wouldnt go after a personality like that right now.
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Bent says: Relax, a cap guru does not give a player a five year contract extension, watch him have a 1000 yard season and then trade him away one year later giving rise to a 6m cap hit.
Trading Coles is financially viable (not to suggest they will), but trading Cotchery isn’t. It would be like admitting to a mistake that hadn’t been made!
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Harlan Lachman says:
The Pats are still the team that went 18-0, scored on their last drive to go ahead, hit a WR in the hands 70 yards down the field with little time on the clock (thank you C Webster for having your hands there too) and stopped the Jints most of the game.
Our team still has no OL, DL LB and may not have a QB. We could use another CB and S too and that down the field WR (but I hope we waste little time and cap space solving those needs now).
We need to take care of bidness and not worry about the Pats, Colts or Jints or even the Fish and Jills for two or three years.
Expecting a quick turnaround will likely short circuit the steps we need to build a consistent winner.
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SackDance99 says:
The Jets won’t go anywhere without the QB situation fixed. Brady on a bad ankle, and getting beaten like a $5 hooker, still had his team winning with barely over 3 minutes left in the game. His line 29/48 (60.4%) for 266 yards and a TD. I’ve never given Chad or, especially, KC the free pass that lots of fans do because of a poor OL. Great QBs still find a way to put their teams in a position to win. The gap between the Jets and Pats will exist until a real, bona fide franchise QB suits up in green.
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Jeff says:
What I learned from the Superbowl is that mediocre quarterback play can get you and win a SB. All you need is a good defense!
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sjfalcon2001 says:
What all those guys have in common is that they flamed out after one year. Their play was not consistent enough to sustain the momentum from season to season. Teams figured out their tendencies and killed them the following season. Mediocre play at QB can win you a Superbowl, but your success won’t continue past that. The teams that had continued success also had above average QB play. As much as I would like to win a Superbowl, I’d rather not be like the Bears, Bucs or Seahawks with only a year of success.
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Bent says:
Hmmm…I think I’d take a flash in the pan SB win even if it meant we were rebuilding again a few years later.
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[*insert Butthead-like voice*]
Harlan said “bidness”
I don’t know why that made me laugh out loud — maybe because his comments are usually so well written — but it did.
That should be the mantra for 2008 — “It’s Time to Take Care of Bidness!”
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Mike A. says:
I agree “it is time to take care of bidness” Our new front office had a great rookie season, but last year may have been their so called “sophmore Jinx”. It has been well stated in this and other Jet blogs about what went wrong this season, from they way they handled PK and the OL to JV and the Defence. If NM and MT are the young management team we need to build the JETS back to a consistent playoff caliber team this spring will be a huge test. I think that there are enough good players on our team that their task of filling in the wholes is not impossible. Lets see how they perform this year!
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ramble914 says:
It is way too early to give up on Kellen Clemens. He was the real deal in college, and if not for a broken ankle he would have been a first round pick. It usually takes a young QB three seasons before he is ready to play with any effectivness, he only had 1 year, his rookie season. And to expect him to be able to accomplish anything without an offensive line is not fair. He made some major league throws this past year that give you hope for the future.
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i think our qb’s are above average…brady still lost the SB just like we lost 7 games by 7 points or less becuz we couldn’t protect our qb’s…DONT GET ME WRONG…BRADY is good…but my point is he failed to win the game becuz he had no time to throw…even when he had open recievers he misfired on alot of passes becuz he got rattled…which will happen to any qb after they get hit that many times…so to say are QB’s aren’t good enough after seeing them run for their lives all season long is totally unfair to them…imagine c-penn or KC haveing 4-7 seconds to throw the ball like brady did for most of the season…c-penn will rip teams apart with a so called weak arm…KC will have time to throw that 65 yarder that everyone is dieing to see from a jets QB…so lets give our QB’s a line and see what they can do before we send them packing…just my thoughts…
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is this the begining of the end for NE…my case in point is this…
-the prediction made by plaxico…which usually motivates NE to destroy teams that talk…but didn’t
-the dropped interception by samuel…
-the escape by eli…
-the catch by tyree…
-the 4th down conversion by b.jacobs…are all plays that usually fell in favor to NE…ALL THESE YEARS…the ball seemed to bounce in their direction…but has the ball decided to bounce in another direction other than in NE’s favor…
-now concider samuel will be gone as a free agent…
-their LBING core is expierenced but very old and getting slower…
-moss wants to stay in NE but at what cost…
-stalworth will be gone…i dont see NE forking over around 10 million to keep him in 08…
-and if samuel,moss and stalworth lieve who replaces them…my question is…
what do you guys think will happen in NE in the coming years and is this where the jets start to really gain ground on them this offseason…
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Brady didn’t fail to win the Super Bowl. His defense couldn’t sack Eli on a 4th down play. Brady put his team in a position to win with 2:46 left on the clock. If KC did that on a regular basis, I wouldn’t be on his case. He didn’t. Also, how about the fact that Brady didn’t throw an INT and completed over 60% of his passes? If the Jets are trying to close the gap between themselves and the Pats the biggest gap, by far, is at the QB position.
Also, I see the “3-year” rule for QBs posted a lot on this site. That it allegedly takes 3-years for a drafted QB to begin to show NFL competence. Well, Eli started his 1st year and Brady won a Super Bowl his 2nd year, while Eli was in the playoffs his 2nd year. Big Ben won a Super Bowl his rookie year. Favre, Peyton, McNabb all Pro Bowlers in their 2nd seasons. In fact, go through the top QBs in today’s NFL and you’ll see that the majority of top NFL QBs were at least competent in their 2nd seasons (like Carson Palmer, Cutler, etc.) As for the guys who took longer for NFL success, some had strange careers like Warner or Garcia (who was a stud early on in the CFL) or did take a few years to develop, like Garrard or Romo. But, the majority of top QBs were good, or at least competent, by their 2nd season.
KC was not competent last season. He completed only 52% of his passes and threw 10 INTs to 5 TDs. He was more or less awful, with only flashes here and there (I would also add that those flashes were primarily from his scrambling, not passing). And, there were some games where he did have time to throw and was facing bad defenses (like the Cleveland game) and he was bad in those, too. Oh, and he seemed to get worse as the season progressed which means that those pesky NFL defensive coordinators picked up on some flaws. I hope that he improves, but I have no confidence that with a better OL and another decent weapon he would be materially better. The Jets, overall, might be because the running game would work better and it’s hard to believe KC could be worse. But, if we’re talking about closing the gap with the Pats, we need better that just a 55% completion % or a 1 to 1 TD/INT percentage from our QB.
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i dont see NE going to another SB anytime soon…not in 08 as heavy favorites or in any year soon after that…just my thoughts…
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dakar, do you see them losing to the Jets for the AFC East title anytime soon? I don’t.
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sack…
your failing to realize that brady as good as he is had all game to score more than 2 TD’s is my point…stats mean nothing to me in a lose…the best offense ever couldn’t score…which falls on him to make plays according to his abilities but didn’t…he failed to hit the open recievers when it meant the most to keep the chains moving…the throws he made all season long he couldn’t make…so dont place the lose on the defense…they did their job for the most part as they did all season long…the bottom line is to win…and brady failed to win when it matter most in the SB…he knew he needed more than 14 points to win and he couldn’t manage to get it done…
as for KC and c-penn…they were runing for their lives for most of all games…if a QB can’t get comfortable and into a rythim ( as happened to brady in the SB ) it will be that much harder for any team to win a game…so before you want to run our QB’s out of town give them a chance with a goodline in front of them…then lets see how they perform…
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i didn’t say that the jets will be better than them or beat them out for the AFC title…as far as i know…i am writing in english aren’t i…
-all im saying is stop dogging our QB’s
-that we should gain alot of ground on NE this offseason…
-and that brady had his chances to complete alot more passes to put his team in a better position to win…as he has done all season long…but he didn’t…
-so therefore the lose is on his shoulders and not his defense…
-and by the way…big ben won the SB in his second year…
-and KC played in only 8 games without an o-line to protect him…did i make myself clear enough for you to understand me…
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dakar, I didn’t insult you. But, the argument that if you give KC or Chad more time with a better OL and Super Bowl here we come is ludicrous. There’s a huge talent gap between Brady, on the one side, and KC/Chad, on the other. In the Super Bowl, Brady completed over 60% of his passes, did not throw an INT and still had his team in a position to win with 2:46 left on the clock. Plus, his OL had broken down, in particular his tackles and RG. He was constantly being hurried and knocked down, all on a bad ankle (remember Chad’s bad ankle?). Pinning the loss on Brady’s shoulders is ridiculous. His LT looked like Brick, but with more false start penalties. If you fail to see how much better a QB that Brady is over Chad/KC, then you have serious Jets green-colored glasses on.
Oh, thanks for pointing out that Big Ben won the Super Bowl in his second season. He still did a little bit better than KC in his 2nd year, right?
And, no OL to protect KC? Explain the Cleveland game? I was there and he flat out stunk. Damn right I’m dogging the Jets QBs because I want to see the Jets win a Super Bowl and I just don’t see KC or Chad leading the Jets to a ticker-tape parade down the Canyon of Heroes.
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JustAGreenGuy says:
Sack dance you are a bitter, bitter man or woman. With that kind of optimisim you must have been thrilled we won 4 games this year. KC didn’t have training camp with the starting O like Big ben had before his SB run. Plus the Steelers had been with the same head coach for ten + years. Cowher had his system implemented, a great D and a solid line /Running game. KC’s recievers barely knew him and he didn’t know them. Tom Brady is the best QB in the game, but the Jets D has shaken him. We don’t need a better QB we need an all around better team.
Do you think we lose good coaches and bench quarterbacks early, because we tend to be the biggest babies ever and BOO at anything. I know if my fans booed me I would really play my best for them. Between the fans and the media I would hate to be drafted to the Jets.
Quit the whining about a QB and have some faith. I was showing support when we were 1-15. You rep Gastineau, but he was just a roid head who ditched us for Red Sonya. How fickle.
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To Sack99:
You have no idea how KC will be as a QB, no one does. Last season he was thrown to the wolves. Like I said in my earlier post, he was one of the most dominant QB’s in college. Ron Jaworski, and Joe Theisman thought he was the best prospect coming out, and that was the year Cutler, Leinart, and Young were drafted. He needs an O line and time to mature, you can’t just give up on him after 8 starts in a lousy year. because if you give up on him now he will just go to a different team and be great for them, like so many past Jets have.
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I love it when guys who haven’t watched a single Jets game post smack. And, more insults. Well, just, you’re entire post is wrong. KC had equal reps with Chad during training camp. I know, I went to training camp at least 6 times. KC was drafted by Mangini and Tannenbaum in their first year together. So, KC had 2 training camps with a whole team that was learning a new system. The whole team started from ground zero, which was perfect for a rookie QB to takeover. I’m sure Jericho, LC and Brad Smith know who KC is, he competed for QB1 in his first training camp and was alternating running the first team during his 2nd, when there were fewer QBs around and he was the declared QB2.
I’ve been a season ticket holder since ’92 and a fan since ’72. You’re probably a Pats or Giants fan who wants the Jets to suck in perpetuity. No Jets fan complains about the booing. That’s a made up issue propagated by Jets-haters. Unlike you, I’d like to see a championship and championship teams usually get there with a solid QB. I “rep” Gastineau because after the drugs and legal problems, he’s been “born again” and has been trying to get back in the fans’ good graces. I’m loyal to former Jets greats; are you? Talk about fickle.
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sack you still fail to see my point…
so your saying his line is at fault for not giving him his 4-7 seconds to throw the ball and is why they lost the SB…thats the same reason we’ve been saying about the jets QB’s…they were runing for their lives all season…they have had no chance to get comfortable and into a rythim at all in 07…
and i saw every game as i do every year for the jets and to base your jugdements solely on the clevland game is nonsense…again we couldn’t do anything agisnt them and their defense sucked… that wasn’t on KC’s head…that game goes on the shoulders of m.shotty…
and i never once said OR hinted we will be SB bound in the near future with a better o-line…i said as i have been saying all along…we will be that much better and prehaps be contenders again…
and that ankle business with brady…his ankle looked fine as did his shoulder thats been hurting for years now…if his ankle was hurt so badly…why was it i didn’t see him limp off the field not once…even after being hit so many times in 1 game…he should have limped off at least once…and if his shoulder really hurts him that bad as they say…then how did he throw 2 65 yard passes back to back with no pain…my point is he was healthy as he always is…
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Don’t you ever accuse me of not watching the Jets. First team reps go with the starting QB you know that. Can you explain the drops by our wideouts, other than Mcdrops, other than because they weren’t ready for the velocity. Plus Clemens had bad ball placement on his wideouts, because he was familiar with their abilities. Yes he does get reps in camp with Sean Ryan, Stuckey, Mcdrops. He wasn’t preped to be the man.
Gastineau is a bad joke. He doesn’t care about the fans and I love the rest of the sack exchange.
I wasn’t even born in 72. Yeah I’m young, but I’ve followed the Jets since I have been able to retain memory. My bank acount has just enough padding for travel, hotel and ticket when we do make the SB.
I will never boo my team. I dislike certain players and will not support cheaters, but the Jets are my team. I have been hassled and insulted my whole life for it, and will not be questioned by you. I spit on the Pats and HATE their sweater model of a QB. If you have anything else to say old man keep it coming. If I can live through the nightmares that were Rich Kotite and Browning Neagle I can take your BS.
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ramble914, there were a lot of QBs that were highly touted coming out of college, only to falter in the pro ranks. David Carr, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Alex Smith, and dozens of others. I did not like what I saw in the 8 games by KC. I defended KC making all of the points everyone else is making right here on this blog. But, the Cleveland game really cut it for me. He DID get protection. Thomas Jones ran for 106 yards at a 4.4 yard per carry clip. He HAD the running game. And, he laid a huge egg, at home, after the Miami win the previous week. He was inaccurate and threw 2 INTs and 0 TDs…against the worst defense in the NFL. Plus, he was facing his old high school and college rival, Derek Anderson. I expected a more competitive effort. What did he show last season to just hand him the QB1 position? Chad’s done and KC is a huge question mark. The Jets just do not have a legitimate NFL-calibre QB on the roster right now. Watching the playoffs and Super Bowl has just really confirmed that fact for me. I think Mangini is a smart and resourceful coach, so I think the Jets could be 8-8 or even 9-7 with a poor QB, but I want more than that, I want a team that will be competing for the Lombardi Trophy every season, and a good QB is necessary for that to happen.
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I agree with your last post sack. Thats something.
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just, you’re just wrong. If you want to defend KC, say he didn’t have a healthy LC and Jericho to throw to, but saying that he didn’t have enough reps with the no. 1 team is wrong. Like I said, at training camp he and Chad switched off constantly. KC had plenty of reps with the 1st team. I can take your insults, too, having lived through a lot more bad Jets teams and disappointments than you have, including Gastineau’s roughing the passer penalty against Cleveland in ’86. But, I still support him because I’m a Jets fan.
dakar, on Brady. My point, which you fail to see, is that Jets fans have been giving KC and Chad excuses for not winning more games. Sure, Brady didn’t win the game, but he had his team in a position to win and, while being given no time to throw, still completed over 60% of his passes and did not throw an INT. That’s good QB play. KC could barely complete more than 50% of his passes and threw twice as many INTs as TDs. Chad had a good completion percentage, but threw way too many INTs. That’s bad QB play. A good QB can still play well in the face of a strong pass rush and give his team an opportunity to win a game, like Brady, a bad QB does the opposite, throws a bad INT or fails to complete too many open passes preventing his team from winning, like KC or Chad. Put Tom Brady on the Jets, even with the same exact OL, and the Jets are a playoff team.
And, I’m not basing KC’s season just on the Cleveland game, which statistically, was probably one of his better games. That game just opened my eyes to his serious deficiencies as an NFL QB. Hey, I hope that I’m wrong, but a poor completion percentage and a 2 to 1 INT to TD ratio is not a promising start. But, short QBs have succeeded, so you never know.
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there r 2 games that come to mind when it comes to KC…
the baltimore and washington games…KC put us in position to win 1 and tie the other…was it his fault mcdrops can’t catch in games…was it his fault cothery dropped a pass that he would normally catch and would have ultimatly put us in a fieldgoal distance that would have won us the game in washington…
now i think his 3-4 record should be more of a 5-2 record…not to mention mcdrops also cost a chance agaisnt NE when chad took over for KC…when he bobbled a definite td pass from c-penn…
we lost alot of games becuz of out bad o-line and becuz out recievers failed to make catches when it mattered most…which is why i defend c-penn and KC…
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just, thanks for the olive branch. Like Winston Wolf said, respect for your elders shows character.
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I think it still comes down to reps. I have been obsessed with the QB position and he is just not hitting recievers in stride. In some cases he was hurt by drops and ineffective running. We would have tied the cleveland game if TJ gets in on 1st or 2nd and goal from the one. He didn’t and a young QB makes a really dumb mistake. I do think he is a much better option than spending the 6th pick in teh draft on a QB when the team has glaring question marks elsewhere. Also he threw 4 picks before he was named starter and 1 td. Making his numbers since being named the starter 4 tds and 6 ints. Thats not as bad. I agreed with the part where you said he is a question mark and that other than your stance on QBs I don’t totally disagree with you.
Gastineau was my favorite player when I was a kid. I even brought his starting line up action figure to show and tell (It was so much cooler thn Ken O’Brien’s). Then he left for Red Sonya. He ditched us for a woman. He was great, but how much of it was the roids? We can’t answer that. That is why I am a much bigger Klecko guy these days. I’ll take a Chrebet or a C-mart who die on the field anyday over a cheater who left the fans for a bad actress. Everytime I see her on TV it drives me nuts.
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dakar, the Ravens game showed promise, but KC did succeed against a prevent defense that was willing to give up the short stuff. The Skins game was equivocal. On the one hand, the fumble by Jericho was a killer, on the other hand, KC just lost it in the second half. His accuracy was way off and he still has a long way to go in terms of blitz recognition. Just a TD or 2 FGs in the second half, and the Jets win that game. But, instead of showing progress as the season went on, I thought KC regressed. He was at his best in the Ravens game and, by the KC game, he was unwatchable.
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sack…we’re both jets fans that will agree to disagree on most parts to why the jets sucked last year…i think we both want to win a SB in our lifetime…and i saw your point from your 1st posting…is why i disagree with you…you defend brady for having good stats while losing the SB and place the blame on his o-line…but when it comes to our QB’s you think they just suck…runing for their lives all season long shouldn’t be a factor to why their stats sucked or to why we lost games…but for brady its ok to say his line sucked for the SB…and is why he didnt get it done for his team in the most important game of the year…the SB…
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seanmac says:
Sack, there is undoubtedly a huge gap between Brady and CP/KC. It bears mentioning that there is also a huge gap between Brady and Eli Manning, but Eli is the one who woke up a champion on Monday morning. I’d been posting during the season that Chad and Eli were basically having identical seasons through the first eight games, only the players around them were performing differently and the results were therefore different. At the end of the year, here’s how they stacked up:
Pennington DPAR 15.6 DVOA -0.9%
Manning DPAR 7.3 DVOA -10.2%
Clemens DPAR -5.6 DVOA -18.1%Chad ended up having a marginally better and more consistent season than Eli, which I guess is surprising until you realize that Eli is the first quarterback to win the Super Bowl while leading the league in interceptions. I happen to be a fan of Eli Manning and I was happy to see play so well in the playoffs, but I don’t know how you can take the Super Bowl as your demonstration of the all-important nature of the QB position when the winning player completed 56% of his passes on the season and led the league in interceptions. Isn’t there a bit of a disconnect there?
Anyway, I have no problems with your being skeptical of Clemens. He was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league last year. But for all the doom and gloom, his performance wasn’t really out of line with that of a great many rookie/first time starters who were thrown into the lineup midseason. There is no reason to hand him the starting job without a competition, and if there are any value quarterbacks in the middle of the draft, the team would do well to take one. But it’s too early to give up on Clemens (and, frankly, on Pennington).
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Gastineau made up the story about Red Sonja. Rumor has it (and it’s been reported as fact in several places) that Gastineau was going to be suspended from the NFL for drugs, and I don’t think it was ‘roids. By “retiring” the NFL could not make the suspension issue public. That’s why Gastineau never tried a comeback.
As for Klecko, I used to post as Klecko, but there’s already a klecko71. He just keeps on getting dissed. Fred Dean in the HOF?!? Please, he couldn’t carry Klecko’s jock and Gastineau, not Dean, was the preeminent pass-rushing DE of the early-80s. If Dean played in the AFC, Klecko, Gastineau, Howie Long and Art Still would’ve blocked him every year. It’s a joke that Klecko’s not in the HOF.
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SACK…I AGREE WITH YOU HERE…KLECKO SHOULD HAVE BEEN IN THE hof LONG AGO…sorry about the caps…
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I heard the rumor too its just easier to assume your idol left the game for a woman, than an 8 ball. Klecko not being in the HOF is a crime. As I understand it they didn’t calculate sacks as a statistic over the course of his career. No doubt he deserves the recognition tho.
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seanmac, I was making a different point. Many fans on this site give KC and Chad a free pass because the OL was poor and did not afford them enough time to make quality throws. I’ve continually said that a good QB can paper over a poor OL and still succeed. To me, that the Pats failed to stop Eli is not relevant to my argument, which is that Brady showed that a great QB can still perform at a high level with an overwhelmed OL; he WAS only 2:46 away from a 4th ring and another MVP trophy. But, offense is only one leg of the three-legged stool of a great team. There’s also defense and special teams. Is your argument that QB is not important for a championship-level team? I guess that it might be because you continually claim that QB is fungible. So, since Chad had a better DVOA than Eli, put Chad on the Giants and they still win Super Bowl XLII? Is that your argument? I don’t have (or want) access to FO’s premium database, but I’m guessing that Philip Rivers was also close to Chad (Chad had a higher QB rating). Is there any football GM, scout, talent evaluator or casual fan that would exchange Rivers for Chad? DVOA is a nice tool, but Chad is a far worse QB than his QB rating or DVOA indicate and we could just re-post all of my Chad posts and your defenses to try to prove our respective points all over again. We simply disagree.
Also, your statement “But for all the doom and gloom, his performance wasn’t really out of line with that of a great many rookie/first time starters who were thrown into the lineup midseason” is empirical, right? Do you have stats to back you up? Also, if you do, could you just limit it to future pro bowlers? I’d be surprised to find out that Clemens’ performance was average for future pro bowlers thrust into service mid-season in their second pro season. And, I do cut rookies more slack. Clemens had 2 training camps, 2 pre-seasons and, before he was named as the starter, he had a tune up game in Baltimore. He probably had more experience than most other mid-season starters.
You were a consistent critic of KC’s all season. I remember because I defended KC. Now that I’m critical of KC, you’re a defender. Why? KC’s stats got worse as the season progressed and he got injured. What changed your mind?
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to try and put an end to why we should give KC more time…
TROY AIKMAN…he had a rb we all know in EMMIT,a line that was among the best and a reciever who will\is a HOF in ERVING…and it took him 4 years to mature with an all star cast…not to mention a good defense at the time…isn’t that enough reason to give KC a chance…
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Philip Rivers was much better than either Eli or Chad, even though he struggled in his second season as starter (DPAR 54.6 DVOA 14.2%). The year before, he was 85.1 and 28.3% Rivers is going to be one of the top quarterbacks in the league-which, incidentally, was exactly what his starts/completion percentage projection suggested. It’s worth paying attention to.
You’re right that Brady was only 2:46 away from another ring. Had he gotten it, it would have been with the lowest scoring output of any Super Bowl winner ever. He had a nice drive at the end once the Giants pass rush ran out of gas. Before then, he was average at best. (And average while throwing to Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, etc, etc.) I don’t hold the loss against Brady, particularly, any more than I would hold Ben Roethlisberger accountable for losing to the Jets when he got dropped seven times. One of the things we’re researching at FO this offseason is the leveling effect of sacks and hits on quarterback performance. The early evidence is that quarterbacks under pressure will operate at fairly similar levels of proficiency, whether their name is Brady or Harrington. I don’t want to overstate, as the research is early, but it doesn’t back up the notion that quarterbacks are able to elevate their team despite terrible protection. (And the Super Bowl doesn’t, either- Brady put together one impressive scoring drive; the fact that it gave his team the lead simply indicates that the other offense wasn’t playing very well.)
As I posted earlier, Clemens’ DVOA was -18.1%. There really wasn’t anyone with a closely comparable stat line- the closest would be Joey Harrington’s initial -20.1%. The other guys who were in the negative twenties were Charlie Frye, Eli Manning and Josh McCown. Tavaris Jackson and Alex Smith were both orders of magnitude worse. Not a promising list to be on, certainly. That said, Harrington and Frye improved a bit the following season, and Manning, McCown, Jackson and Smith all made huge improvements the following year. It didn’t necessarily jump out, as they were improving from beyond awful to merely bad or perhaps replacement level, but they all got better the next year.
Second year future Pro Bowlers making their first starts is a pretty small group, as far as I can tell. Brady put up a -0.4% DVOA his first year. Carson Palmer put up a 7.2%. Drew Brees was -3.5% (and -21.5% the next year). Vince Young went to the Pro Bowl his rookie year with a -8.7% DVOA. Not a whole lot to write home about.
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dakar, Aikman is a great example of the “3-year” rule because he was a pro-bowler and Super Bowl champion in his 3rd season. And, he was an inaccurate INT machine during his first 2 seasons. But, QBs of more recent vintage have matured sooner and KC is just not the physical specimen, nor did he have the college pedigree that Aikman had. As I’ve posted before, KC is listed a 6-2 and I think he’s more like 6-1; Aikman was 6-4. IMO, Aikman had a lot more going for him, but who knows, maybe KC will become Drew Brees.
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sack…yeah your right…it was 3 years insted of 4 when he took them to the SB…but aikman also had a team built around him those years…where as KC was thrown to the wild dogs thristing for his blood…lolol…
im just saying…if we build a line in front of KC and he still loses more than 6 games becuz of his mistakes and not that of dropped passes…then i will stand by your side asking for a QB change…but until then im backing KC and C-PENN up…just my thoughts…
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I suppose there’s a chance that Chad’s performance was injury-related, like breaking up scar tissue in his shoulder or poor mechanics because of his ankle, but if that’s not the reason, then I just think he’s not an NFL-calibre QB anymore. The jury is out on KC; but the verdict is in on Chad and he’s been convicted of poor QB play.
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Nothing has changed my mind on Clemens, one way or the other. I didn’t expect him to be as good as Chad last year (he wasn’t), and I didn’t see the upside to playing the lesser player. I didn’t think he would improve any faster as a result of being thrown in than if he sat another year on the sidelines and competed for the job in training camp. I’ve been pretty firm in my opinion that the problems at quarterback during the first half of the year were a result of other issues, notably the offensive line, the poor separation the receivers were getting, and a defense that put the offense behind the 8-ball over and over. I didn’t feel any differently at the end of the year (although the defensive play did improve, it was offset by the dropoff in efficiency from Pennington to Clemens). I thought it was telling that Pennington and Clemens, despite their hugely different skill sets, ended up with almost identical YPA numbers. The offense was compressing the quarterback play, not the other way around.
Anyway, I didn’t see anything I didn’t expect to see from Clemens, and certainly nothing that would get me in a lather. He got good reviews from personnel evaluators who I trust, his college projection numbers suggest he’ll be average or a little better (again, the exact same stat line as Matt Ryan for 1/40th the price), he looked good in preseason and the coaching staff supposedly likes him. I’m not going to go out and say he’s got Pro Bowl written all over him, but he didn’t do anything to suggest he’s bound to fail, either. Just to put his performance in a bit of perspective, the #1 overall pick put up a DVOA of -48%. The #3 pick in last year’s draft put up a DVOA of -6.7% on a playoff team. The #1 overall pick in the 2005 draft put up a -47% DVOA.
Clemens has a good skill set and doesn’t cost a lot of money. I don’t see better options out there, much as I don’t see better backup options than Pennington. In 2004 I was all for drafting Jay Cutler, but the team decided against it. That’s fine. There’s no one available in free agency who is likely to be an improvement, nor is there anyone available in the draft who is likely to be an improvement. So I think the team should sniff around at the free agents, and they should sniff around at the draft prospects. If something lines up-if Brohm falls into the second round, for instance, or if Woodson drops into the third or fourth-they should take a good long look. But beyond that, there’s not much to do.
I think looking at the Super Bowl may change (or confirm) how the Jets look at building their team. The Jets still have to deal with Tom Brady. The Giants confirmed that the best way to do that is constant pressure. Does that change how the Jets look at the FA class and the draft? Is it better to spend money on Terrell Suggs or Asante Samuel? Does Vernon Gholston look like a more attractive draft option than he did before yesterday? It will be interesting to see how the Jets approach building the defense this offseason and if they put more of an emphasis on edge rushers tha they might have otherwise.