Opinion: Can We Just Enjoy the Ride?
On his blog recently, Rich Cimini wrote something that has stuck with me about the upcoming Draft regarding the Jets and being on the outside looking in at the top five:
Still two months to the draft, but it’s starting to look like the Jets (picking sixth overall) are on the second-tier in terms of the talent pool. The consensus top 5 (in no particular order) are QB Matt Ryan, DT Glenn Dorsey, DE Chris Long, RB Darren McFadden and OT Jake Long. After that, it’s a scramble. Figures. The Jets would be sitting pretty with the third pick if they had lost to the Chiefs in the final game.
I’m glad he realizes that there’s still a lot of time and any number of things could happen between now and then (Combine results, pro day showings, interviews, player scandals) but to choose between two bad options in losing to your doofus old coach or moving up a few slots in the draft is something that I have long reconciled, the Jets won against a perennial bumbler and dropped down … it’s done, let’s get over it.
Having said that, picking first doesn’t necessarily mean that teams will get the better of the two players. Doing a quick “smell test” back to 1994 (years prior escape my fair judgement on who might be deemed ‘better’) here’s the results of who fared better in the league. Now keep in mind, not getting picked here doesn’t mean that player was a “bust” by any means (it just seems to turn out that way) just see 1995 or 2000 to know what I mean.
See the players after the jump
1994 — Heath Shuler – Trent Dilfer
1995 — Steve McNair – Kevin Carter
1996 — Simeon Rice – Lawrence Phillips
1997 — Shawn Springs – Walter Jones
1998 — Andre Wadsworth – Grant Wistrom
1999 — Akili Smith – Torry Holt
2000 — Chris Samuels – Corey Simon
2001 — Gerard Warren – Richard Seymour
2002 — Joey Harrington – Ryan Sims (stinky!)
2003 — Andre Johnson – Johnathan Sullivan
2004 — Larry Fitzgerald – Kellen Winslow
2005 — Braylon Edwards – Pacman Jones
2006 — Vince Young – Vernon Davis (no bets)
2007 — Joe Thomas – LaRon Landry (no bets)
By my count with the exceptions of the Joey Harrington / Ryan Sims “debacled” picks, along with exempting the past two years’ picks (it’s just too soon to tell), it looks like the tally for who was a better pick stands at 6-5 in favor of the number #3. Maybe your numbers would turn up differently, but this isn’t science.
Even though some of those players have since turned out to be utter busts like Johnathan Sullivan, Andre Wadsworth and Akili Smith, my real point is that it’s too early to really know what could happen. For instance, if Adam “Pac-man” Jones wasn’t such an idiot, you might be able to make a case that he could contend in talent with Braylon Edwards. But in a little place I like to call reality, that just ain’t gonna happen now.
There are only two reasons that I am disappointed the Jets aren’t in the top five. First, it means they have no play for Chris Long and second it means that they might be less likely to find suitors to get into the top five.
Although McFadden is droolworthy, both he and Matt Ryan are picks that the team could ill-afford to make right now, so that takes those two players off the board already. Although Sedrick Ellis showed some great moves at the Senior Bowl, he’s only 6’1″ 285 lbs. and that’s a tad concerning in a 3-4 as he’s too small to play effectively at end and to skinny to play the nose. He’s the one guy that I would be mildly concerned with the Jets drafting at #6.
Again, it’s hard to say what could happen and what talent could be available at #6. Let’s just sit back, enjoy the run-up to free agency and the Draft and not get caught up in what we don’t have and rather what we do: a team with strengthening leadership, key role-players, a large amount of cap space and some great placement for picks in the early rounds of the draft.
21 Responses to Opinion: Can We Just Enjoy the Ride?
-
Zenlaw says:
I was thrilled that the Jets finished their season with a win, particularly against Herm.
As for the draft, the Jets still have a shot at a top player without having to cough up top 5 $$$. Besides, the Jets have had more than their fair share of top 5 picks lately and none of them have received Pro Bowl consideration (D’Brick, DeWayne, etc.)
Every expert claims that Dorsey is the only sure thing in this draft. However, the reality is that a player such as Sederick Ellis could end up performing better than Dorsey as a pro. Only time and experience will tell.
-
billvv says:
Following the reasoning that the last win was stooopid, we should have lost them all! Wow, what a concept! Play the game NOT to win!
All it means to me is we have an opportunity to get better without so much money on the line and no real reason to believe it would have payed off.
-
seanmac says:
It doesn’t make much sense to compare drafts generically because the talent falls differently in each one; it’s fine for making a very general point, but that’s all. As it happens, this would be a great draft to be lower than we are, because a) the talent at the top of the draft is pretty weak by the standard of previous drafts and b) it doesn’t mesh well with our needs. So being at six isn’t good, but being at three would be even worse, especially if Miami goes ahead and nabs Chris Long at #1.
As for McFadden, I suspect he’s going to drop more than people think should Oakland pass on him. Mike Mayock doesn’t even have him in his top 20, and while he’s not going to drop that far, he’s going to drop some.
-
Harlan Lachman says:
Toon is hot and billvv gets it too.
The victory saved face, but more importantly, cap space. Lets see if Woody and Tangini are willing to put it to good use come March 1st. Whether we use our cap space to sign three YOUNG studs for our front 12 will have more to do with how this team fares for the next five years than a victory or loss in our last game.
Trust Cimini to completely miss the point.
Where’s the beef?
h
-
will says:
Sedrick Ellis makes six. The Jets are in good shape.
-
Bent says: “Although Sedrick Ellis showed some great moves at the Senior Bowl, he’s only 6?1? 285 lbs. and that’s a tad concerning in a 3-4 as he’s too small to play effectively at end and to skinny to play the nose.”
If I told you he weighed in at 308 at the Senior Bowl (where he was so impressive) would that allay your concerns at all?
-
Bent says:
I agree with will. Even if that means that the guy who falls to us is a bad fit, at least there should be a market for these elite prospects.
-
Some people would also throw Vernon Gholston into the mix, although I wouldn’t. Mike Mayock just came out with an interesting draft board that looked like this at the top:
1. Matt Ryan 2. Sedrick Ellis 3. Chris Long 4. Glenn Dorsey 5. Vernon Gholston 6. Jake Long. 7. Ryan Clady 8. Keith Rivers 9. Phillip Merling 10. Leodis McKelvin
I really think that Chris Long and Sedrick Ellis are targets 1A and 1B. Long will probably be gone, but Ellis could easily be there. Gholston is the guy who best fits the team’s primary need (pass rush), but I’m not convinced that he merits the pick (I’m open to changing my mind as I watch more tape of him). A right tackle would be a major investment in the line, but would actually net you a starting lineman for cheaper than what we’ll end up paying on the open market and would provide a safety net should D’brickashaw not develop/get hurt/prove hard to re-sign.
-
“If I told you he weighed in at 308 at the Senior Bowl (where he was so impressive) would that allay your concerns at all?”
It’s a start … but can he go north from there? If he plays end he might not have the wingspan to bat passes and keep guards and tackles at arms-length if he was 3-4 inches taller, and even though he impressed at the Senior Bowl … let’s face it, it’s not the same level of talent he would face week in and out in the NFL … otherwise it sounds like we are repeating history with another Dewayne Robertson type.
-
Bent says:
But does he need to go North from there? Let’s stop viewing the perfect NT as a 6’4″ 350 pounds specimen and compare him to Robertson (who many of us, including me, think does a good job anyway – and who I believe is closer to what the Jets want from their NT in this system).
An inch taller
The same weight
A longer wingspan (apparently)
Much stronger (apparently)
Younger
Actually has cartlidge in his knees
Likely to have a much lower salaryI’m more confident that he would be an upgrade than I would be if the Jets signed a Rogers or Haynesworth and tried to put them there.
Of course, if we did draft him, even if he did his job well, people would still moan that he didn’t make enough impact plays!
-
Exactly. We could do a lot worse than to come out of the round with a player of Robertson’s caliber.
Anyway, I think people are overemphasizing the first round; it’s really the second round where the interesting decisions come in. In the first round, the team is going to take a safe player who will start from day one- it’s either going to be a DE or an OT in all probability. If they are going to take a shot at someone who represents value at an interesting position, it’s going to be in round two. So they’re not going to take Matt Ryan, but they might well take Brian Brohm later on. I don’t think they’ll take Vernon Gholston, but they might well take someone like Quentin Groves later on. They’re not likely to take Darren McFadden but they’re…well, they’re not likely to take a running back, period. The interesting decision points are all in the second round.
-
Yea, just having the top pick doesn’t guarentee a superstar, anything can happen and picking sixth might not be the worst. What I am more upset about is the Patriots having the seventh pick? I mean come on!
-
Vbsiena24 says:
Vernon Gholston is the pick unless C Long falls, not likely. Even though with a superb combine rumor is that the Rams might want to take him…
-
I am not suggesting the Jets will take Ellis. I was merely placing him among the top six players in the draft. In fact, I think his stock has risen to the point where he might go second – ahead of Dorsey – to the Rams.
Given the choice I dont think the Jets will take Gholston or McFadden, opting instead for someone like Balmer, Merling or the best available offensive Tackle, Jake Long or Ryan Clady. Or trade down, if they can finda taker for the #6 pick.
Merling makes sense for the Jets, though at this point a huge reach at #6, because he is big and stable at the line of scrimmage. He should be good in a two-gap system and have enough skill and strength to make plays behind the line of scrimmage. In my perfect world the Jets can trade down and still get a guy like Merling in addition to another strong addition to the teams “front 12,” as Harlan calls the big boys at or near the line of scrimmage.
-
SackDance99 says:
I think taking an OL with the 6th pick would be a waste. The money is better spent on a veteran OL and, ultimately, could be cheaper. For example, last year’s no. 6 pick, LaRon Landry received a 5 year $41.5 million contract with $17.5 million in guarantees. Steve Hutchinson, who might be the best LG in the NFL, received a 7 year $49 million contract with $10 million in guarantees. It’s simply more cost-effective and safer to sign a proven veteran OL.
-
dakar says:
i was happy that we beat h.edwards…i never wanted him or bradway…i thought they were both clueless to what was going on…and frankly…i was sick and tired of his ” we play to win the game bs” every week…no sh.. sherlock…now the KC fans have to deal with him…thank god…
-
Sack,
That’s only if there’s one to sign. Gross is going to be franchised, and I’ll be surprised if Locklear hits the open market. So you may be looking at a situation where you’re paying top of the draft money to a mediocre player; alternately, you could pay top of the draft money to a guy who grades out as a top of the draft talent. Not an ideal situation, but again, there’s much to be said for avoiding risk and keeping your salary cap structure in order.
-
Ilan says:
Regarding Ellis keeping offensive linemen at bay with his hands, I’ve heard that he has excellent hand placement and that his wingspan is longer than that of Vince Wilfork.
-
Balmer keeps rising up people’s boards. One mock I saw had him going in the top 12 and Mayock has him as his 15th rated player. If the Jets can trade down (might be likely if either Minnesota or Chicago falls in love with one of the top QBs and they’re still available at six), I wouldn’t be surprised to see them target a player like Balmer to really solidify one of the end spots a la Ty Warren in NE (13th pick in ’03). A trade like that would also bring extra picks and would allow the Jets to fill more holes which seems essential given all of the talent gaps on both offense and defense.
A scenario like that might be the best shot the Jets will have to trade out of the pick as I’m not sure how much teams would want to relinquish to move up a take a RB (even McFadden who some, mostly Mayock, have soured on lately).
-
seanmac, it just seems to me that $45 million for 5 years and nearly $18 million guaranteed for an unproven rookie OL is much riskier than, in all likelihood, less overall money for a veteran. As for Locklear, Seattle has to make a decision on Trufant, right? They can’t have both, especially because the NFL upheld the poison pill of allowing an escalator clause based upon a team’s top paid OL. Since there’s no way Seattle can pay any other OL the same as Walter Jones, a smart team that wants Locklear merely has to include the same provision that Hutchinson had in his contract with the Vikes. Plus, there’s still guys like Faneca, Lilja, Wahle, etc. With the exception of Faneca, it’s hard for me to believe that these guys would command 6th pick money, but you never know. Dockery got roughly 6th pick money last year from the Bills, but that was last year. Each year the market varies, so there’s a chance the Jets could do better. Ideally, the Jets would sign one veteran OL and draft, at least, 2 more. With Bender and the parade of guys that the Jets tried out at the end of last season, along with some rookies and undrafted free agents, the Jets should be able to upgrade the OL and, almost as importantly, improve OL depth.
I am shocked, I mean just floored, that Cimini would find a negative to harp on.