Audible: Who’s the QB in 2008?
It seems that one of the interesting side effects of the moves the Jets have made has been to create dialog again around the Quarterbacks. Is this a win-now team? Were these moves made to benefit the running game and solidify the pocket for Kellen Clemens, allowing him time to make the right decisions?
After watching Chad at the end of last season, have we seen enough? With Kellen Clemens and Chad Pennington on the roster, it was assumed that Kellen Clemens would hold onto the job in 2008, but at this point, the competition that Mangini talked about at the end of last season seems very realistic.
What do you think the moves in shoring up the offensive line mean? Who do you anticipate starting Week 1 in September? Who do these moves likely benefit more?
167 Responses to Audible: Who’s the QB in 2008?
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K.C. says:
I think a fair competition between these two this training camp is good.If by some MIRACLE.CHAD wins the starting job,then HE’S our QB.But with KELLEN getting some valuable PT last year(even if most of it was running for his life!)I really BELIEVE he will win the job.That being said,we still need to pick up a TALL,FAST WIDE RECIEVER,with HANDS(montgomery or sweed would be lovely).I LOVE what the J-E-T-S have done this offseason!! Now its OUR TURN(as fans)to SHOW the LOVE BACK!!
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rj says:
this is a no brainer. CHAD is the starting qb. he has to have 1 more chance with a new line in front of him. clemens was a joke last year his decision making just left me speechless. he drops back and looks terrified. chad will have time to put his throws on the money now and thats what we need especially cause we dont have a damn deep threat anyway. and if we did chad would hit him. chad is a leader and a field general and will prove it if he gets the chance clemens is a joke so far. pennington was coming off a couple injuries last year, before that he was good with the like of mawae n kareem mckenzie at aline now we bolstered our line so put chad under center is a must.ABSOLUTE MUST AND NO BRAINER
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kmw says:
In the past Pennington was effective because of play action, something the team got away from for whatever reason. Now that the line has been revamped, why not give him another chance with an offense built around power running and play action passes. What do they have to lose? Clemens didn’t show much last year.
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hey rj,thats why your NOT the coach. MARK MY WORDS….KELLEN CLEMENS WILL BE THE STARTING QUATERBACK FOR THE NEW YORK J-E-T-S THIS YEAR. He’s TEN TIMES more mobile than CHAD,and his arm is TEN TIMES STRONGER!! no brainer decision:KELLEN May the BEST QUARTERBACK WIN. see you in AUGUST!
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dakar says:
i think its gonna be close…true KC didn’t show much but what young QB would if they were running for their lives every time the ball was snaped to them…i will be happy with either 1 of them…just my thoughts…
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Roger Vick says:
Totally agree about needing a true #1 WR. Watching Moss and Burress made it even more clear the Jets are lacking a true #1. The problem with drafting one, is almost every #1 WR didn’t develop into that kind of player until his third year, which wouldn’t mesh with the seemingly win-now moves the team has made in free agency.
As for the QB, No matter which one wins the job out of camp, Mangini needs to make it clear that, barring injury, he is the QB for the whole season. I think it hurt Chad last year to be constantly looking over his shoulder. Not only was he pressing, but it’s hard to be a team leader when your job status is up in the air from week to week. And, it hurt Clemens to not get in there until the season was lost.
Regardless of which QB you support, QB controversies are bad for the team.
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that being said,I do think we need to draft a quaterback NO LATER than the 2nd round…….”MAYBE” 3rd
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well if clemens is the starter i will give u credit. and ill also look foward to a 4-12 season. so if thats what you want ill give you all the credit in the world. chad gives us the best shot to win clemens is a legit joke in the pocket hes garbage. i mean i would love for him to prove me wrong so i feel like a moron but honestly what did u see out of clemens that would make u say this? nothing! well you did see him look like a terrified bum thats about it. chad has already proven when healthy and with a good line( great line this year) he can get the job done
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seanmac says:
Wow, I’m surprised. I didn’t think there would be much in the way of Chad support. I happen to agree with the basic premise- I think Chad’s strengths can still more than offset his weaknesses provided he is in a better situation. I have no problem with him starting this year.
If the Jets really like Clemens, then I imagine they’ll ignore quarterback in the draft for at least one more year, but if I were them, I would look to add another guy between rounds 2-4 to fortify things. Brian Brohm is worth a second round pick (although I expect he’ll go mid-to-late first when all is said and done). Flacco and Woodson are worth third round picks. Woodson is particularly intriguing, because he’s a guy whose stock is falling to the point where you could get him at a very reasonable point in the draft. He wouldn’t be ready to compete for a job in year one, but he’s the kind of guy who could really sparkle after a few years of coaching.
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mattV says:
Like a band-aid..right off!
I think although it might be hard, we need to move on from Pennington. Name Clemens the starter and stick with it, he hasn’t even started an entire season and already he’s a “joke.” That is just not fair, give the guy a little time. Besides, cycling back and forth between Quarterbacks is difficult for all of the offense to adjust to, not just the Quarterback. We saw last year that our receivers weren’t quite used to the velocity on Kellen’s throws, his style is a far cry from Pennington’s lofty floaters. Give everybody a chance to create a chemistry. We stay with Kellen because Chad is just to easy to game plan against: Stuff eight guys in the box and make him throw down field (which he can’t do) and he’ll get sacked and throw interceptions all day long. No more Herm + no more curtis martin + rotator cuff surgery = the end of Pennington. Move on, don’t look back. -
Mattv he cant throw down field because he has nobody to throw to down there. and what running game did he have? what curtis ran all over teams wass anybody complaining about pennington? no.
i do agree thought the team jsut has to say this guy is our 1 qb and stick to it regardless if its chad kellen or hey brad smith? why not -
i really think both quarterbacks will do good this year especially if we can get a weapon or 2. but penningtons excitement and energy is what makes him a leader. Are u guys telling me when pennington runs out of that tunnel going crazy and pumping his guys up doesnt mean something? clemens runs out like a little fairy showing no emotion and acts like it on the field. the team will favor chad for sure
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Harvlis says:
Wow, I’m glad to hear that there are still some Chad fans. I am usually the only one singing his praises. With a revamped line and the addition of some new weapons, hopefully coming from the draft, Chad will show his detractors that he is not done yet. There is no QB in the league, Brady and Peyton included, that could have won anything with the line we had this past year. A QB like Chad, given time, can walk the ball up the field. If you give him the weapons, like 6’7″ James Hardy from IN, he will do well in the red zone. If you like a QB who bombs it down the field – Sorry, Chad is not your guy. If you want a thinking man’s QB, who can play-fake with the best and take you down the field with seconds left – Chad’s your guy. Watch, now that i’ve said this, Tangini will pick Matt Ryan with the first pick.
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JustAGreenGuy says:
Chad throws a floater. He had 1 long completion last year and it was because the amazing bengals defense didn’t respect him. That pass was great timing. A good secondary would have never allowed that play.
I love Chad and I hate calling for his head, but the times have changed.
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rj, i consider coles and cotch to be very good receivers, and coles has the speed to stretch the field (when healthy), what we do need is a big guy in the slot, or a playmaker at tight end to increase our red-zone production
and open up the outside.P.S. I would also like to see Brad get more action, especially actually throwing the ball, so the defense doesn’t see exactly whats coming every time he takes a snap. If i can call the play from my couch, I’m pretty sure an opposing defense can too.
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The Ed(itor) says:
I really like Chad, but unless he gets a new arm, I can’t see him as the JETS starting QB. I want a QB that can throw downfield more than once a game. If it isn’t Kellen, then we need to find a new QB not named Chad. But I think Kellen is the man.
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I agree with the reciever and TE, i think the jets should have went after crumpler i feel like that would have been a huge addition to our offense right from the start.
In the draft however i think limas sweed would be a great pick except i dont really think we can get him at 6 alittle to high maybe trade down alittle? -
Saying Chad CAN’T throw down the field is not factually correct. He threw a great deep ball for a TD to Coles in the Cincy game last year.
I know it’s only one example, but one is enough to disprove the statement that he can’t
The true question is why didn’t they throw it down the field more? It mostly comes down to lacking a true deep threat, and having an offensive line that could barely protect the QB long enough to throw a hitch.
Chad needs to step into his throws, and there wasn’t any time or space for him to do that last year. Shouldn’t be an issue this year.
But, there still is no deep threat at WR. Coles and Cotchery are good players, but they are both #2 WR’s. Look at the bomb Clemens threw in the KC game. Cotchery was blanketed 60 yards downfield by a LB. Right now, with Thomas Jones in the backfield and the WR’s they have, the Jets’ offense is built to be a 10 and 12-play drive kind of offense, even if Kellen Clemens, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning was the QB (if you don’t believe me, look at how the Pats became exactly that kind of offense in the playoffs once teams decided they were going to take Moss away and make everyone else beat them).
Obviously, I lean toward Chad, but I aknowledge that we can’t yet make a judgement on Clemens.
It seems to me that the Clemens backers mostly like Clemens, because he isn’t Chad.
I hope Clemens wins the job, and plays well, because it means the team has a QB of the future. But, I think the Clemens supporters have to admit that if, after two full seasons in the league and the system, 8 starts and an entire offseason and training camp, if Clemens still can’t beat out Chad, then he is not the answer.
As I posted above, I hope Jets fans will support whichever one of these guys wins the job, because switching back and forth is not going to help anyone.
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fafa says:
I can see a case made for either one to start. Makes my headspin. One thing I keep seeing posted though is drafting Mcfadden to accompany our QB in the backfield. No need. There has been little mention of L. Washington! He is our Reggie Bush and potential 3rd receiving threat if Schotty would just put him in the gameplan more.
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Rocky says:
I agree with the editor..as much as I like Chad, his QB play is almost sad to watch, his decision making was horrible last year as was his arm strength. If you cant make a 10 yard out throw, then you shouldn’t be in the NFL, if you’re not able to zip it then there isn’t much value for you on the field. yes pennington is a very smart player but he’s just had too many road blocks along the way and he needs a new enviornment, I think the only reason the FO kept him was to give Clemens the impression that he hasn’t done anything yet and he needs to but just watching how he moves the ball downfield excited me because it was such a change up from Pennington’s embarassing throws. I’m not saying Kellen is definetly the man, I’m just saying it sure shouldn’t be Chad because with this ‘win-now’ and more exciting team mentality, we need someone who can add some electricity to this offense..BTW did anyone even watch the Baltimore game!? he led the Jets down the field against arguably the leagues best defense and if it weren’t for two McCariens endzone TD drops, they would’ve gone into OT, that game impressed me and with a revamped line I think Kellen will continue to impress…just my 2 cents
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wahooRuss says:
I agree, I’m floored by how many people are on Chad’s side. I really like him as a pro. He works hard, is media savy, is a super teammate, etc. However, IT’S TIME TO MOVE ON. Kellen has ONLY 6 starts under his belt. Lets give him a chance. I can’t believe that, after the debacle that was last season, so many are judging Kellen by his performance. He was thrown into the fire and got hammered back there. He didn’t have ANY time to “make decisions”, that so many of you are hammering him about. I seem to remember Chad throwing multiple 4th quarter interceptions when we were in the position to come back and make things exciting.
Also, I don’t know if its just me, but I think we have some pretty exciting offensive players. I would have liked to see a TE that can make an impact, but thats been the case for years. From Kyle Brady, to Becht, to the next guy, we haven’t had a good pass catching TE in a LONG time. However, with TJ, Leon, Coles and Cotch, I feel like we have a lot of offensive firepower that can make some waves. With a revamped O-line and effective play calling the recipe for success is there. As long as Kellen steps up.
Speaking of play calling, how do we all feel about Schottenheimer? I though he did an AWFUL job last year, but the year before thought he was genius. I don’t really know where I stand with him now. Getting TJ last year, i thought it was going to really open things up. HOwever, how much of the failure do we attribute to the O line last year?
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billvv says:
First a competition then a commitment. I think we can all get behind that. Weapons for whichever QB is the real question. I’ve been calling for WR’s since we fixed the two lines. We have no depth! We need TWO new WR’s. All good teams list their three receivers while we list the same two year after year! This has to end. We stock up now.
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Jay says:
Why did they draft KC if they weren’t going to start him?
Fellas, unless your name is Brady, or Marino, it takes time to develop into a good QB in this league. Nobody doubts KC has the basic tools to be good. What he needs now is experience and better players around him to give him a chance to grow.
Just look at the other team in this city. Look how bad Eli looked after what, 3 seasons?
If KC was good enough to draft, then you have to show faith in him. Name him the starter, trade Pennington for picks, sign a retread backup, and live with the consequences.
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No offensive coordinator is going to look good when his offensive line features Adrien Clarke and Anthony Clement. It’s just reality.
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18andOne says:
I think Chad is everything you could ask for in a player, but he just doesn’t have enough arm strength to make us an elite team. Sure, he can win you some games and even get you to the playoffs, but there’s no chance he’ll beat Brady or Manning in a playoff game.
Clemens didn’t show much last year, but he still won more football games for the Jets then Chad did. Chad won us one game last year despite playing the majority of the games. Clemens won us three games, which should have been four games if not of McNoHands. So I don’t why we would go back to Chad. They both played behind the same crummy o-line, but one of them was much more successfull.
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John says:
OK, I am sorry, but I just don’t see it in Kellen. I think with the suring up of the O line and D line, it leaves some flexibilty in the draft. I think the Jets have to, and will, draft a QB somewhere in the draft. Perhaps a Chad Henne? Possibly use their first pick on another QB that is higher rated if available? I think they also need their RB of the future, Ray Rice maybe? He could be the sleeper RB here. A WR or two, and another corner? I also see Chad Pennington started at the beginning of this year.
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96debacle says:
If we had no picks in the draft I would be content with what the FO has done.
But then again, I don’t have to be content.What I’m getting from most bloggers is CP is a stop gap and not many people have confidence in KC.
So if Matt Ryan is available at 6 we take him?
Maybe trade up from the 2nd round or trade down from #6 and take Brohm?
There is no big and fast WR in the draft. Big yes, but not very fast WR out there. Maybe take a shot at Marcus Monk in the 4th. Even he runs in th 4.5s at least he’s 6?4. Still Raw talent.
Personally I’m scratching WR off the wish list in ‘08.
As far as KC and CP go. This is the same story as last year. Probably the same debate will be going on next year as well. CP is smart, but no arm (never did, never will). KC doesn’t make the right read, is too short, but can rocket one short or long.
Its going to be the same as last year QB competition. CP serviceable. he can keep the ship afloat till they find his succesor. KC is just the 1st. If its not addressed this year, I’ll putt money it will be next year. Which is what I’m thinking will happen. KC has a shot to show improvement enough to take the rains otherwise he’s gone.
And I would have to agree with Ramble914. KC had a very successfully College career and he was touted highly if it wasn’t for a busted leg. Then again its coming up on year three and its time to show more improvement. Start showing that Franchise QB. -
Leon says:
We need to move from the dink-and-dunk offense to something that stretches the defense a bit more. 3-4 yard pass plays need to become 6-8 yard pass plays. We also need at least a handful of plays where the ball travels 30 yards in the air. I think that it was great that we got Clemens time to develop last year. My thinking is that he’ll advance more this year as the starter. It’s his time now, but he needs a big time receiver to make it happen!
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muff says:
anyone who wants to just say, “chad has no arm strenght his needs to go”, i challenge you to go back and watch all the tape and count how many bad decisions he made. i bet its under 10 and that number includes under 1 min and driving length of the feild games vs. cincy, buff and NYG.
with this line, pennington is clear cut, the better fit heading into next year. unless clemons makes huge strides this offseason and beats him out, pennington will start.
lets just not get tony konrhiser like on this website. 99% of the time it is ingnorant free.
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hmmm, depending on where we could get Ray Rice, that could be very intersting.
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I think Chad Henne is going to be a great QB.
But what happens if Matt Ryan is there at #6?
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j says:
Can we trade our offensive coordinator, and I mean OFFENSIVE!
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If Chad is so darn smart, he should just stop kidding himself and get into coaching or something where he can rely on his mind. He no longer possesses the physical ability necessary to succeed in the NFL as a starting quarterback, it’s that simple. Clemens may not turn out to be anything special, but he deserves a chance before being thrown under the bus.
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OGMatt says:
you have to attribute a lot of the failure to the o-line not Schotty and play calling. He was unable to call a different gameplan due to the o-line being terrible. I believe that once the line is solidified he will revert to more 2006 play calling.
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If your saying clemens deserves a chance. then chad absolutely does with time he would rank among the tom in completion percentage. it doesnt matter if anthony clement or chad was our qb we have 2 offensive playmakers. leon and cotchery, coles was sleeping last year or something i dk but we need a big playmaker then we make our decision at QB n stick to it
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SackDance99 says:
Sorry for the re-post, but it fits here (with an update):
As for Chad/KC. Here’s a take from someone who does not like either of them. If the Jets draft Run DMc, I would be inclined to start Chad. With the Jets improved OL, and a speed demon like McFadden, playing 8 men in the box is a real calculated risk. McFadden can take a seam and go on the fastest 70-80 yard run by an RB in NFL history. Even with his weak arm, Chad will be able to crank out enough long wobblers to keep a defense honest, especially in play-action. Also, there’s a chance that Chad’s problems were physical (ankle worse than we thought, scar tissue in shoulder that had to loosen, etc.). With Chad’s smarts and pocket presence, the Jets could be a playoff team next season and KC could still sit and learn some more.
On the flip side, if the FO is committed to KC, then he needs a speedy WR, a pass-catching TE, Run DMc, and an offense geared towards minimizing any deficiencies caused by his lack of height. He needs moving pockets and safety valves, especially at TE (although Run DMc could be like Reggie Bush in NO, who is Brees’ safety valve). The point is, the entire offense has to be specifically tailored for KC.
If the Jets intend to stick with a straight drop-back QB, which would be my preference after spending a gazillion dollars on the OL, then drafting or signing a classic drop-back QB makes sense. Ryan at 6 (if DMc isn’t there), Flacco/Woodson/Ainge in the later rounds, Leftwich, etc. KC just isn’t a classic drop-back guy, while Chad is, but without the big arm. Brady, Big Ben, the Mannings, Palmer, Rivers…all 6-4 plus, all have big arms, all have classic drop-back QB skills. I keep on harping on this, but if the Jets want to be a perennial Super Bowl contender, they should draft or sign a QB that meets this profile.
The reason why he needs a safety valve and a speed burner are to minimize blitzes and sacks. If Richard Seymour plants KC again, his career could be over. There have been a few 6-2 guys who have won the Super Bowl, like Montana, Young, Favre and Kurt Warner. Three of the four were in West Coast offenses which are geared towards quick precision passes, and Warner had an amazing collection of offensive talent surrounding him, along with an excellent OL. Take these guys out and the overwhelming majority of Super Bowl winning QBs, including all of the ones this decade, are 6-4 or over. That’s not a coincidence, look back to 1990. Smaller guys just can’t take the pounding, can’t stay in the pocket, etc. That’s the reality if KC is the QB for now and the future. -
david i says:
I love Chad and he can get us to the playoffs, but when the level of play in the playoffs kicks it up a notch, Chad just can’t make the throws that make champions! If a championship is won, it will be because the team can stop the run and run the ball down peoples throats…that is why we just doled out $62M in gaurantees. So, in the case of this teams QBs, it is the case in using someone who won’t lose you the game. Chad’s performance in year’s past proved that he couldn’t make the throws that won championships, but he was the guy that wouldn’t lose you any games. Last year, that all changed, when he lost the games he did by throwing the ball away. He is and should be plan B. Clemens can make the throws, he just needs more time behind a line that can give him the time, his accuracy will improve and he might be able to avoid losing games so we can win a championship!
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ok ok
I just finished reading through all these posts.
CP can make throws down fields? He just needs a fast receiver to throw to? Why so he has time to run back to catch the under thrown ball?
They guy had no arm before his two shoulder injuries. He has no velocity on his throws. I have to wonder if some of you actually were watching the Jets in a Jets game and not the other team.
Hes thrown down field over 40 yards maybe 4 times in the past 4 years, for completions. I mean in the air not Cotchery rolling over someones back showing amazing agility and runs for 70 yards. Are we forgetting his outside throws to the stands?
How about those suicide balls over the middle.I don’t care who you are as a coordinator. If your Offense/Defense cannot execute it will not work. Shottie’s fine, for now.
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The original question on this post was who will be the starting QB, not who should be. We can debate the “should” all we want, but if anyone thinks this coaching staff is going to throw Clemens back to the bench after half a season, I think you’re kidding yourselves. Mangini knew when he made the switch last season that he was committing to seeing what KC could do, and there’s no way that he could feel like he has an answer to that question with the o-line KC was playing behind. If KC screws the pooch in 2008, you need a new QB. If not, you’ve got yourself a QB.
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CP will surely get us to the playoffs. KC might. The team might go with a guy from the stands! The difference is whether the thread is about now or in the future. Neither of these two will be here long term. We don’t have THAT guy yet. This year has to be the beginning of that search because it takes three years to be good enough to trust your team to him (or her). How intense that search is and whether he’s a draftee or picked up from another team? That wasn’t the question.
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there is no way woody johnson spent all this money on free agents if tangini couldn’t convince him that there was a QB either on the team or one that could be attained in which to lead this team to a SB this year. looking at the age of the signings, that can’t be debated.
so lets eliminate our options;
derek anderson – no
player in the draft – hardly
joe harrington – not close
lweftwich – possible but unlikley better than what we have
clemons – needs slot of improvementWHAT LOGICAL CHOICE DOES THAT LEAVE EVERYONE?
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Can’t i just make a QB and import him into my Franchise?
Oh yeah Clements is released. signed Woolfork. Who?
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Bent says: Can we really keep both if their styles are so different? Whose style do we taylor the offense towards?
Chad wasn’t throwing deep a lot of the time because teams sat a safety deep downfield knowing that the Jets WRs couldn’t get open underneath. How about a big guy who he can hit over the middle that can go up to get it and actually enable the ball to be thrown downfield?
For Kellen, you can’t really call the Baltimore game his finest hour. Maybe his famous-for-15-minutes moment. He had like 78 yards entering the fourth quarter and ended up with 260 against a soft zone, with a bunch of yards after the catch. And he threw two Chad-esque telegraphed out passes for TDs too against the Pokes and the Pats. But, get him a burner to stretch the field and maybe he relaxes with more protection.
Screw it, I don’t know, let’s draft McFadden and run the triple wing.
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Broadway Joe says:
Wow, I kind of like all the support the team is getting for each of the QB’s. We all know that whoever was back behind the center had to do with who they had at the time. That being said we should look at what direction the team wants to go in. A true deep threat who’s taller than 6’0 would help either of them dramatically. As far as who you would start, KC is their pick, CP was already here and nothing, I mean nothing, takes the place of good old fashioned experience on the field. I believe we are judging KC too soon but a fairer comparison would be to his peers and their first six starts: Leinart, Young, & the guy in Denver. They were picked before KC. How did they fair in year one? I liked Chad and love his enthusiasm. Chad has to make throws with a lot of anticipation. The entire NFL is aware of his abilities. Can he still be effective? Yes, how much longer? Why chance it? Anyway you look at this situation, the game was eventually going to be given to KC. If you do it now, fans will say Chad got a raw deal. But he didn’t. If anything the Jets believed in Chad when no one else did. Now teams will show some interest in him when two years ago you couldn’t get a taker. It’s better to let him move on than to ask a former captain and leader to take a reduced role(and pay). I believe his best years has past. This is the only reason I lean towards KC, longevity. We are heading in the right direction but, we are still pieces and a season or two away from legit contenders. We all should be behind the new moves. When it’s time to make some real noise in the playoffs, I don’t believe CP will be a member of this team.
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sec108 says:
I’m just curious, for all who have seen enough of Clemens after 8 games and want the jets to draft his replacement, How many games does the next guy get? Maybe we give him a whole year, whaddya think? I mean c’mon, I’m not ready to say Clemens is definitely the guy to lead this team to the promised land, but I’m certainly not ready to toss around some the adjectives being used to describe him on this thread. All this after the guy got his shot behind one of the worst lines in the league with a team that was already done for the season.
SackDance, I respect your opinions, but to say whether or not a QB can win a superbowl based soley on height seems a little much. I know its a factor, but we are talking about 2 inches here, its not like he’s 5’9″.
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Now Bent, Cut that logical talk out! Two different style QBs. Catering the offense to fit the QB. Crazy talk I tell you.
Then again the triple wing….
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To answer your question, Broadway Joe, Leinart, Young and Cutler were all better than Clemens in their first year.
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If CP goes, who will replace him? Nobody out there is better prepared to step in if KC goes down. Nobody. CP stays and competes. We’ll see who starts after that.
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And RJ. wouldn’t you look terrified if you just got hit 15 times and every time you got the ball two 300lbs guys were looking to do it again and again and again?
Didn’t he start to pull away last year before the ball was even snapped?
Talk about gun shy!lets face it. No one is right here.
I’m putting my money on KC being the starter.
Why?
He’s fun to watch. Its been so long since I saw a QB on the Jets throw like him. Ahh good old Vinny.
CP bores me. Same dink and dunk. heaven for bid we need a 3 and long….
well at least I don’t have to worry about it being a screen anymore. -
Brady Quinn? For the sixth pick overall? When he went 23rd and was lucky to go there? In what world is that a good idea?
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fun to watch does not = winning.
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Bent says:
I don’t think Quinn will be traded but I floated the idea as an alternative to spending a high pick on an equally unknown quantity a few weeks ago. If he busts – no cap hit! If Ryan/Russell/Alex Smith busts, you are in cap hell and stuck between a rock and a hard place.
And I don’t even like Quinn much as a prospect – but with no financial risk, I’d happily take him on rather than someone I liked better as a prospect for big money.
Agreed though. 6 is clearly too much to give up. How about they send us their first rounder too and then we give them another pick to balance things out?
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They don’t have a first rounder- they traded it away to Dallas for Quinn last year. Cleveland really has nothing to trade, even if they should want the sixth pick, which I doubt they do.
I’m also not enamored with Quinn as a prospect, but I agree that Quinn with no guaranteed money would be far more attractive than a top pick with $25 million in guarantees.
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Over fifty posts! Don’t you guys have jobs? Gotta eat! Seeya tomorrow!
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sec108, it’s 2 inches and corresponding bulk. QBs have to make decisions in miliseconds, the OL and DL will obscure his vision sooner at 6-2. Also, a straight drop back passer has to wait in the pocket until a man is open or go through his progressions. All of that is compacted for a guy who can’t look over a collapsing pocket. Guys like Brady step up in the pocket and throw. That’s not possible for a shorter QB, if he steps up he’ll be behind a wall of blockers.
Now, to bulk. Shorter QBs can’t get sacked. The more sacks, the more wear and tear. Plus, I went to camp, I’m a tad under 6-3. I was eye-to-eye with Chad, KC is more than 2 inches shorter than I am. I bet he’s barely 6-0, like Brees. He’s short. I’ve said over and over that just means he needs an offense tailored for him. Primarily to open passing lanes and buy him time to get WRs open.
It’s a factor and at his height, there are more Rex Grossmans and Kyle Bollers than a Romo or Brees (both of whom have the type of weapons a shorter, mobile QB needs).
On the plus side, I think KC could prosper in a proper offense. He has great mobility, a plus arm and a quick release. But, his pocket presence is lacking….guys are bigger and faster in the NFL than they were in the PAC 10.
Problem is, Chad can’t run KC’s offense and KC will get killed running Chad’s, which is based on quick decisions and short passes. So, in short, the Jets QB situation is a mess. The only issue is how to clean up the mess and whether to stick with KC or go back to Chad, both of which seem to me to be short term ideas. -
even if we were to draft ryan brohm or whoever…do you guys think that they will come in the nfl and light things up…come on…your looking at 2-3 years for them to be able to compete at the nfl level…so give KC a brake…he was fed to wild animals last year barely getting away without serious injury…i know KC can take a hit…he proved that to me last year…just my thoughts…
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Biebs says:
I’ll root for the Jets no matter who’s QB, but the Jets were a better team with Clemens on the field last year, they won more, they scored more, and really, that’s all that should matter.
I posted some stats elsewhere. But, Clemens should improve as a passer, most starters improve after 1 year in the league.
However, despite the QB rating and indivdual #s… Here are the important stats regarding both QBs
If the Jets are down late and Pennington’s QB. Recent history says, automatic loss. Clemens down close and late. chance for victory
Last year alone… the numbers were about even:
Here’s a breakdown of stats when the game was still within 20 (Note, all dives that ended before half/game without points, punts, or turnovers are not included)Chad:
78 Drives11 Touchdowns
10 Field Goals
5 Missed Field Goals
9 INTsClemens:
82 Drives9 Touchdowns
18 Field Goals
2 Missed Field Goals
10 INTsNow, there’s no reason to assume that Clemens would be worse this year, since 1st year QBs generally improve at a faster rate than 8 yr veterans…
What’s really telling is 4th quarter stats when the Jets were down by 1 score or less
Pennington:
11 Drives
0 TDs
0 Field Goals
4 INTs (2 returned for TDs)Clemens:
11 Drives
0 TDs
4 Field Goals
2 INTs -
its senseless to draft another QB with a high pick in this years draft…
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Just another quick note
The 2 INT’s Clemens threw
1. Vs. Baltimore (One that MCCairians arguably should have caught – but, a pass that should have never had to been thrown, since McCairians should have caught a TD 3 plays earlier)
2. Vs. Pitt – They won anyhow.
Clemens led 5 drives of 40+ yards in the 4th Quarter, Pennington had 1.
I know Pennington’s #s look better. But if the game is close, he wasn’t better than Clemens last yr, and there’s even less reason to think he’d be better this year -
Blebs,
They were a better team, they scored more and they won more…because the defense got much, much better. The offense actually got worse, but the defense, which had been the absolute worst in the league throughout the first half of the season, improved dramatically (so that they were merely a bottom third unit). Better defense translates into better field position and that translates into more points.
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sean…i guess you see my point now…
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KC took a threw a bad INT and got injured by a sack from Seymour that came right up the middle. He suffered a broken leg in his senior season at Oregon. By the time the Chiefs game rolled around, a deer in the headlights had more poise. Maybe it’s senseless not to draft a QB (or sign another one).
Also, the issue with the Chad v. KC debate is who benefits more with a better OL and running game? Chad’s a proven game manager, KC has more upside, but still has a lot to learn and needs more help. Also, it’s not suprising to me that a mobile QB had more success with the Jets OL last season. When Chad’s first couple of options weren’t there, he was sacked. KC was sacked a lot too, but he also scrambled better. The offense was stagnant under Chad and somewhat inept with KC. Inept won out. So, what? That’s not what I think the Jets expect after doling out $60 million to improve the OL.
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sack…my point is after taking such a beating those 8 games im surprised he didnt suffer a serious injury…thats a sign of durabilty…and the injury in college was 2 going on 3 years ago…the guy has smarts has an arm and now a line…lets see what he does with time to throw the ball…the time to actually plant his feet and step into his throws…the time to make his reads…before we send him packing…and bring in another
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bring another QB in and wait until he matures for another 3 years…i take my chances with KC…
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Sean,
That doesn’t explain the late and close numbers in the 4th quarter. How do you figure the offense got worse? They scored on a higher % of drives.
Also, Pennington did play 2 games late in the season and led the Jets to a total of 9 points on offense (Jets had a block Punt for a TD against the Pats)
Their Defense did play better in the 2nd half.
They each had 20 drives of 50+ yards during the season.
They each had 14 drives of 10+ plays during the season.Clemens had a few more 3 and outs…
Pennington had 12TD drives last yr, 10 TD passes
Clemens had 9TD drives last yr, 5 TD passes (this accounts for the large gap in QB rating), IMO however the Jets score is irrelevant.Clemens led the Jets to 21 FG drives – 14 were 40+Yards (Nugent made 19/21)
Pennington led the Jets to 15 FG drives – 8 were 40+ yards (Nugent made 10/15)The defense probably helped some. But the Jets were better or equal offensively when Clemens was on the field. In the 4th quarter of a close game, Pennington didn’t generate a single point for the Jets all year, they went 0-6 in those situations
11 Drives, 0 Points, 4 INTs, 2 Pick-6s.
That’s not just because the defense was better in the 2nd half
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or cpenn for that matter
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James in TN says:
We should take a flyer on Byron Leftwich. A incentive laiden contract. What is to lose? I just hope we don’t draft Erik Ainge, he is a joke!!!!! Being a UT fan, I watched him send UT’s program back 10 years. I’ll take anybody over Ainge. Also, I hope that we draft McFadden and make him a #1 WR. He has the height and speed. Why not?
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Just to make it clear, look at the DVOA ratings by quarterback. The way DVOA works is that the higher the number, the more it favors the offense, and the lower the number, the more it favors the defense:
The offense in 9 games with Chad: -12.01
The offense in 7 games with Clemens: -11.22The defense in 9 games with Chad: +17.04
The defense in 7 games with Clemens: +1.98I was wrong, actually- the offense got ever so slightly better under Clemens. But the defense was vastly better in the games Clemens played.
That doesn’t address the arguments that Clemens is more likely to improve or anything like that. But Clemens shouldn’t be getting credit for winning more games or scoring more points, because it didn’t have much to do with him. When you take two exactly equal offenses and give one an extra five yards of field position, over the course of the season, the second offense will score 125 more points. Clemens’ offense benefited from a far better situation, but it was playing at a nearly identical level (and even then, you’re looking at an uptick in the running game- the passing game got worse).
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JP says:
I’d be surprised if the Jets don’t draft a QB in round 2 or 3…Henne or Flacco.
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dakar, the whole “it takes 2 to 3 years for a QB to mature” isn’t exactly true. It really depends. Some guys like Favre, Big Ben, Marino, Brady, etc. were pretty good more or less from the first time they started. One of my issues with KC was that he was so unpolished for a guy with 2 NFL training camps under his belt and looked worse in his 8th game than he did in his 1st. Also, even if your “2 to 3 year” rule were true, wouldn’t it be better to draft Ryan or Brohm and let them start to mature now, rather than waiting on a guy who hasn’t exactly distinguished himself after 2 years? I mean if KC fails in this his 3rd year, he’s done, right?
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Seanman, I agree with your general point (as what I’ve noticed from the stats I’ve looked up). The offense was about equal with Clemens as it was with Pennington.
But one of the reaons the Jets did lose those games early on was just how bad Pennington was in close and late situations. I can’t tell you for sure that Clemens is the answer (my first inclination is that he isn’t). But I don’t see any reason to believe the Jets will be better with Pennington at QB.
That combined with Pennington’s 4th quarter disasters is enough to see more Clemens. I don’t see an answer in bringing in another QB. No one in the draft is ready to start this year (and therefore, the Jets are no better off bring in Matt Ryan – who doesn’t impress me).
I don’t think FA is the answer either. I think Clemens still has a lot of upside, in the end it comes down to this, I think Clemens ceiling is WAY higher than Pennington’s in 2008, and I think Clemens basement is not so much lower than Pennington’s.The big point of Pennington is his ability to not make mistakes and to make the “smart” pass. But too often, he does make the terrible throw, often when the DB can sit on the pass when the Jets are losing.
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Even those numbers are slanted by the New England game, where the weather conditions were so bad that the Patriots had their worst offensive game of the year, as did the Jets. Remove that game and the split becomes:
Chad’s O: -9.3%
Chad’s D: +23.6%That’s really a more accurate take on the defensive “support” Chad was getting. Turning from a +23.6% defense to a +1.98% defense is far, far more important than the minor changes in offensive efficiency that you got between Pennington and Clemens. The defensive change is about 95% of the story when you look at the difference in W-L records. Maybe more.
Which, again, is not an argument as to which would be better going forward. It’s just a refutation of the notion that Clemens played better than Pennington last year and that the proof is in the points scored or games won or what have you.
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Bent says:
“draft McFadden and make him a #1 WR. He has the height and speed. Why not?”
Because he has lousy hands. CB would be a better shout.
Ainge was terrible until last year, but surely you would have to admit he did improve a lot in his final season, James?
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vanne says:
hi ¡¡¡
I LOVE CHAD PENNINGTON IS THE BEST QB OF ALL THA NFL
FOR EVER AND EVER
THE CLUB:
“CARZY FOR CHAD PENNINGTON” -
the 4 QBs taken in the draft 2 years ago were:average time to develop is 3 years…as they say…
linert,cutler,young and KC…
linert hasn’t done anything but lose his job to an old man…
cutler has developed into a good QB thanks to the teachings of his head coach…who is 1 of the best at coaching QBs…
young has proven to be very inconsistent with his time in the nfl…
but 1 thing those guys have in common was a line…im sure at the time alot of you guys were wanting to draft 1 of these guys 2…
now KC on the other hand…didn’t have a line…he played 8 games and most of it he was running for dear life…so why dont you guys compare him to these guys after he plays a full season before you run him out of town…just a thought…
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which is why you can draft a
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lore says:
The best QB of the jets is chad pennington, down clemens is very bad and I fell ill, it is much better chad beats throughout.
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I love chad pennington by q is very handsome and is the best QB of all time just passing through a bad streak like all juagdores they can spend and is and always will be a super QB of the jets.
Top ChAD PENNINGTON ¡¡¡¡¡¡¡
tHE CLUB :
“CRAZU FOR CHAD PENNINGTON”
I LOVE CHAD
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Sack- I’m pretty sure Ben Roethlisberger looked worse at the end of his first year than he did at the beginning, too. And that was on a 15-1 team. It’s not unusual to see young quarterbacks get worse as the season goes along, particularly when they’re in bad situations as Clemens was. It’s the natural result of getting hit so much. (In fact, most quarterbacks will have their fundamentals deteriorate under those circumstances, young or not.) Throw in the fact that defensive coordinators have more tape on a guy and it’s not at all unexpected.
It’s also not fair to suggest that Clemens is in his third year, with the connotation that he should be performing like a three-year starter. He went into his first two seasons with a starter firmly entrenched in front of him and never got a majority of the reps in training camp. Then he was thrown into a lousy situation where he couldn’t be expected to do well. He should certainly be further along than guys who are coming in as rookies, though. If the projection system is right and Clemens is going to be a similar player to Ryan, he should absolutely outperform Ryan this season. If he doesn’t, that will be problematic.
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bent…if dmc cant catch…whats the big fuss about this guy then…if he can’t catch a screen…then i wouldn’t say he’s the best rb in the draft…which means stewart and mendenhall are better cuz they can catch…just my thoughts…
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If we’re at the point in agreeing that Pennington and Clemens were roughly equal last year, than what’s the upside to bringing back Pennington to start this season?
At first I thought the Jets were going to trade Pennington, but the reality is, he’s too valuable as a backup (or starter and Clemens as a backup) to let go without a legit #2 option.
My opinion is that he stays, and Clemens wins the job.
As dakar wrote. it’s unarguable that Clemens has had least talent by a longshot surrounding him from the class of ’06. Many QBs who had terrible 1st years went on to hae good careers.
Clemens was about 24.5% below the league average in QB rating last yr (that puts him in the bottom 20% of all 1st, 2nd, and 3rd yr QBs) (He would have gotten a huge boost if McCairians caught the TD against Baltimore).Even in recent history McNabb and Eli Manning both put up years similar to Clemens. Vince Young’s rookie year was pretty similar as well
I don’t think the Jets are better served to write off Clemens just yet.
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john l says:
chad pennington is and always will be our best option…..the guy is probably the smartest qb in the league so everybody please just stop the bickering and use common sense….please….thank you
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Bent, Erik Ainge was nicknamed “Mr. Throwaway”. He would throw the ball away to avoid sacks. Also, he singlehandedly lost the SEC championship against LSU with his critical INT’s. I would rather draft Woodson, and that hurts cause I can’t stand anything sportswise from Kentucky. Hmmm.. DRob from Kentucky. Coincidence maybe. I like DMacdaddy, but trading with Dallas would be awesome depth wise.
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sean…well put…i agree completely…
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Ainge was afraid to be tackled or wait for the WR to hit their route. He is the nephew of a NBA player, that’s his claim to fame, not a leader.
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Bent says:
He can catch a screen (not that he did much of that – that was mainly Felix Jones’ or Peyton Hillis’ role), but that’s far from having the hands of a wideout.
Not a fan, huh, James? Thanks for the local skinny! I happen to be a big Danny Ainge fan, but I wouldn’t draft Erik just for that reason!
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Bent says:
89 comments. Woody’s record in jeopardy already?
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Chad was benched mostly to give Clemens a shot. Chad wasn’t setting the world on fire or anything, but just look at their numbers.
Chad: 179-for-260, 1765 yds, 68.8% complete, 6.79 yds/att
Kellen: 130-for-250, 1529 yds, 52.0% complete, 6.12 yds/attI understand that Kellen’s mobility counts in his favor, but it’s basically impossible to argue that Kellen was better than Chad last year. If you want to say equal, you maybe have an argument.
I love Chad, and would be comfortable seeing him start the season as our QB. But if Clemens really turns a corner in the offseason and convinces Mangini that he’s going to have a breakout season in his third year, then by all means give him the reins.
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ED says:
We’re clearly in new territory here as the Jets have actually shown a. they can be smart b. learn from their mistakes. Assuming all the cap stuff is worked out (which I agree with others here we have to assume is the case) we are a much better team than we were a week ago. We are also different. With a little more tweaking we actually have two lines…YIP…two lines. An offensive line and defensive line. This assumes everyone lives up to their potential, but I think the moves were smart, and I feel good about them. Why this preamble? Because last week we didn’t need a top ten NFL Quarterback because there was no offensive line, and it didn’t really matter who was running for their life. Now it does.
Like everything else, here the process that should lead to the naming of the Jet’s starter for the 08 season.
1. Try and pry away a top fifteen quarterback from another team and cut or trade Chad.
2. If successful, new QB starts. KC is a back-up, maybe takes over some day. Not successful, cut or trade Chad and sign best QB available for competition with KC. I believe drafting a QB in 08 at the 2-4 level would also need to happen here. (Trent Edwards type guy.)
3. Pick the guy that gives you the best chance to win based on what the coaches have seen.
We repeat this process each year, including the draft pick, until we find a Super Bowl caliber QB. Chad is the guy we would all love our daughters to marry, but I want a ring. And apparently so does Mr. Johnson.
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beibs is way off with this statment –
“The big point of Pennington is his ability to not make mistakes and to make the “smart” pass. But too often, he does make the terrible throw, often when the DB can sit on the pass when the Jets are losing.”
again, i’ll challenge people to go back and look at all of penningtons throws, count them up, his bad decisions were under 10.
seanmac made a statment months ago that has stuck in mind. “the things gave pennington alot of trouble, gave clemons even more. again watch the games, it’s true.
i can’t argue with any person’s opinoin that KC has more upside. he could, and i’m not arguing that he couldn’t beat pennington out in training camp, i hope he does. but for the time being, KC has alot of work to do to get there.
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ed –
pennigton is a top 20 QB in the league, why try and improve 5 spots, not to mention you just can’t steal a top 15 qb.
and again, mr johnson is not that stupid to have spent all this money if he wasn’t convinced he had a super bowl caliber QB already on the roster. thats like going to a restaurant and ordering everyhting that goes with steak to find out steak was never on the menu. your stuck with fish and red wine.
can someone please tell me how all this money was spent if the braintrust didn’t think they have the most important position on the feild in good hands?
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bent…maybe thats why they used f.jones for the screens…dmc’s hands aren’t realible enough or at all…which means he’s not an every down back…lolol…just my thoughts…
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Muff:
Pennington’s mistakes in the 4th quarter are the biggest issue in handHe actually gave up more points then he generated:
In 18 meaningful 4th quarter drives (I’m not counting the game ending drive against the Bengals when the Jets scored a TD with 0:00 to make it a 38-31 loss)18 Drives:
1 TD
2 Field Goals
1 Missed Field Goal (Not his Fault)5 Punts
4 turnovers on downs
1 fumble
4 INTs (2 returned for INTs)That’s 13 points generated and 14 points given up
2 Drives longer than 50 YardsClemens had 24 4th Quarter drives:
3 TDs
6 Field Goals
7 Punts
5 INTs
3 TO on DownsWho’d you rather have in the 4th quarter?
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comesimangia says:
I totally agree, they’re not drafting or trading for another QB this year. Kellen was a 2nd round pick in Tan-gini’s first draft, no matter what, Kellen is gonna get a real shot at this thing before they move on. He’s there guy. It wasn’t a need pick. They have always gone after players that want in the draft. Kellen was the 3rd pick in the Tan-gini era. They took a LT, a C, and then a QB for there first draft. It’s year 3, now it’s his time.
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droseatwork says:
I have no idea how you can call for KC’s demise when we haven’t given him a fair shot. That is outrageous! Give the man a shot!
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drose…true true so true…
but im good with either 1 them now that we’ll have a line to give them the time to plant their feet…and not run for their lives…
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beibs –
that may be true, but i think to validate your argument a/b the 4th quarter i think more info is needed;
1. how many time outs were left for each player
2. how much time
3. what defense were they playing
4. the score – meaning did they need a TD to tie, FG to tie, etc.
5. field positioni can’t say for sure with no actual game books in front of me, but it seemed to me that clemons wasn’t really put in a position where he needed a TD to win or tie, under a min with 1 time out, starting at his own 20. another thing a/b clemons in the 4th quarter is alot of things seemed to go his way, like interference calls on 3 rd down or late hits. so add a 6th variable and we call it unaccounted yardage.
and i’m still sticking to my theory that when pennington made some of these throws, he was left with no choice. they were high risk throws, but what else are you gonna do, dump it off every time, because the defenses took every thing else away?
i just want to add that i’m praying you are right and clemons is the better QB
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Chad was left no choice because all he can do is dump it off or float it into the hole in the zone. No one respects his arm strength so all the DBs just sit an wait for the floater. He doesn’t have the power to go deep or make a strong throw to th sidelines. He’s a great game manager and a great guy, but I don’t see him ever leading us down the feild with 2 mins to play from our 20, there isn’t a DB in the league who is scared of him.
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People are saying 2 to 3 years to develop a new QB? What if Kellen sucks for the next year or 2. Then you are talking more than 2-3 years cumulatively to bring someone in after that. I say draft somebody, and let the 3 of them compete. If worst comes to worst, start Chad this year, and let the other two duke it out to see who follows as the next QB. I certainly think Chad would do much better this year with the new line. Of course he made some bad throwing decisions last year; the poor guy had nobody blocking and giving him any time. Tom Brady would have made poor decisions with that little time to throw. I don’t feel like Kellen has it. Just a gut feeling. I just don’t see any super star in the guy. Granted, he only played 8 games, and also didn’t have a line, but it is just something deeper that I sense is not there with him. I think the Jets will definitely draft a QB, whether they are lucky enough to land Ryan, or whether it is Brohm, Henne,or Flacco. Incidently,Flacco has a monster arm, and accuracy to match. Not very mobile though, probably more of a Ken O’Brien style QB. I do like Henne though, and there have been a lot of good reports on him, and his stock has risen.
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I never said we should quit on KC. But we need to present him with realistic, constant, high end competition.
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Also, Muff, barely in the top 20 isn’t going to get you anywhere. A top 15 with better surrounding cast and coaching can be a top ten. Chad–and I respect the man to the core–will never AGAIN be a top ten quaterback. He was…or could have been…
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junior says:
I think that kellen should be the starter. Chads best days are behind him and if they do decide to go with kellen i also feel they should trade chad so there is no contraversy and keeln doesnt have to look over his shoulder and play like his job depends on it go with kc and sign a culpepper or leftwitch to back him up. i definatly feel that if kellen is the starter you have to move chad
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Sack,
It’ll probably get lost in here, but I shot a few questions at Dave Lewin regarding Ryan based on your suggestions, and here’s what he had to say:
*I had two questions as pertains to Matt Ryan and how he grades out. The first is attempts- do total attempts end up being more or less accurate than starts when it comes to projecting prospects? Ryan has a low start number, but a very high number of attempts- if I’m not mistaken, he threw as many passes at BC as Peyton Manning did at Tennessee.*
Starts are more predictive, but the R^2 drops only slightly if you use attempts. Using both doesn’t work because of high collinearity, but it is my impression that (and now that you mention it I may test this) a better measure of experience would be roughly 60-70% starts and 30-40% attempts.
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*Also, does interception rate per attempt have predictive value?*
It had no predictive power, but I haven’t yet updated my data and re-tested for this year. Though I don’t think things will change all that much. That doesn’t mean it’s worthless, only that scouts tend to evaluate it properly when determining whether a player is a top two round prospect or not.
*I seem to remember in your initial essay you suggested that size was non-predictive, but it seems like a vast majority of the busts were guys who were below 6’4″- McNown, Boller, Couch, Smith, Carr, Losman, Vick, Quincy Carter, etc, etc, and that with the notable exception of Ryan Leaf, most of the 6’5″ prototype guys had success- Rivers, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Peyton, etc- or are projected to have success- Leinart, Campbell, Young to a certain extent. Did you look at height independently and determine it had no predictive value, did you make the (reasonable) assumption that whatever benefit height gave a player would already be factored into starts (he had the physical ability to get on the field) and completion percentage (they were better able to see the field, etc).*
I’ve never had height come out as predictive in any formulation of the model. That’s an interesting theory, but basically you’re limiting it to the super tall, because Druckenmiller was 6’4, Leaf 6’5, Couch 6’4, Akili Smith 6’3, Quincy Carter 6’2, Harrington 6’4, Carr 6’3, Boller 6’3, Alex Smith 6’4. We’re not talking about a lot of tweeners there. I agree that most of the super big guys recently have had success, but I’m not that confident in saying the difference is that extra inch from 6’4 to 6’5, not to mention that several smaller guys (Brees for example) have been successful.
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*
Because it looks as if you could put together a floor of starts (say 30) or maybe a minimum number of attempts, restrict the list to guys who had the prototype 6’5″ size and end up with a group of Rivers, Palmer, Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Culpepper, Campbell, Leinart, Leftwich and Young, which is to say a fairly similar grouping of top players to what you get from the starts/completion percentage formula. Is it just coincidental? I’m curious to hear your take.*Like I said, I’d guess that it’s just coincidence, but I’ll explore a multitude of ways to incorporate height this spring and see if it evers shows and statistical validity.
Oh yeah, I just thought I’d mention that I am fairly high on Ryan and I see him as a good first round pick (the more I think about this the more I am convinced). He played in what was essentially a pro-offense on a team that refused to run the ball and did quite well. He figures to have an easy transition and looks like an NFL player for sure. However, I would be wary of spending a top 5 pick on a guy who just wasn’t that dominant in college. I think after the top 5-10 he represents good value, but I’m not sure I would commit to paying superstar level money to a guy who has never played at that level.
I’m not sure who I like better between Brohm and Ryan, but if I had to take one up high it would be Brohm because he is a sure thing. He is reminiscent of Tom Brady with his quality decision making and accuracy. Later in the first round I would be happy to draft either of them, and the smaller bonus money makes the risk associated with Ryan more palatable.
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mark my words: KELLEN CLEMENS WILL BE THE NEW YORK J-E-T-S STARTING QUATERBACK IN THE 2008-9 SEASON. We still need to give him ONE more offensive weapon(tall,fast with hands WR)with our NEW,REVAMPED O-LINE,KELLEN will finally be able to be a QUATERBACK instead of a RUNNINGBACK(running for his life almost EVERYTIME he snapped the ball)and show his true talent.GRANTED…after all the MOVES we made this offseason,KELLEN has NO MORE excuses!He pretty much has this ONE year to prove himself.Which…I AGREE.I said earlier in a post that we should DEFINITELY draft a QUATERBACK in the 2nd/3rd round as long as its FLACCO,HENNE,even BOOTY!
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Neil says:
OK ….here we go. Chad has character, but no arm left. Kellen …even when he had time to throw was off and not accurate….kind of like Vinny. I think both are lacking in different yet important ways.
It is a choice of the lesser of 2 evils. Chad will manage the game better, and still throw floating ducks. With all the upgrades we should be a 8&8 team this year.
That is pending on LC not getting brain damage going over the middle to catch a slow ball floater and getting nailed.
I would have a look at Chads team mate at Marshall Brian Leftwhich…accurate, decent passer rating, and stronger arm then Chad.
Maybe we can get Vinny back for one moe try….kidding of course. When we had a chance to draft a real QB we took Brick…a never ending work in progress.
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Let’s draft Flacco, he has seen tougher competition than Henne has in the “Little”10. Appy State can attest to that!LOL Booty has been compared to Chad in arm strength. I think Kellen get’s this year to prove his worth but I agree he needs competition. Chad should be kept on as backup/QB coach. He has really been a good leader, but his productive days are over unforunately.
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green duck says:
get MCFADDEN on first round, take FLACCO on second round.
this can get us to a monster runnig game + depth and competition on QB.
if not mistaken JETS would still have 5 picks on later rounds (might be 7 with D-Robe trade), enough to fill needs after all the free agency signing -
Bent says:
John – Flacco’s athleticism and mobility are constantly under-rated. You compare him to Ken O’Brien who moves slower than driftwood (and never scored a rushing TD in his long career), but Flacco ran a 4.78 at the Combine and was disappointed because he hoped to run 4.6.
Level of competition and accuracy may be a concern (he had issues with accuracy at the Combine), but mobility isn’t (and neither is size or arm strength).
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Muff:
Pennington 4th Quarter Drives
Week 3 Vs. Miami
Jets up 10
8:56 left
Start: Jets 30
PuntWeek 4 Vs. Buffalo
Jets Down 3
10:49 left
Start: Jets 20
INT (2nd Play)Week 4 Vs. Buffalo
Jets Down 10
6:56 left
Start: Jets 36
TDWeek 4 Vs. Buffalo
Jets Down 3
1:43 left
Start: Jets 26
One TO Left
INTWeek 5 Vs. Giants
Jets Down 4
7:52 left
Start: Jets 38
PuntWeek 5 Vs. Giants
Jets Down 4
4:40 left
Start: Jets 23
INT Returned for TDWeek 5 Vs. Giants
Jets Down 11
3:15 left
Start: Jets 38
TO on DownsWeek 6 Vs. Eagles
Jets Down 10
11:24 left
Start: Eagles 17
Field GoalWeek 6 Vs. Eagles
Jets Down 7
8:05 left
Start: Jets 46
TO On Downs (Note: Drove Jets to Eagles 4)Wk 7 Vs. Bengals
Jets Down 1
13:31 left
Start: Jets 25
Fumble (Fumbled exchange)Wk 7 Vs. Bengals
Jets Down 8
6:09 left
Start: Jets 11
Punt (3 and Out)Wk 7 Vs. Bengals
Jets Down 8
1:44 left
Start: Jets 12
INT Returned for TDWk 8 Vs. Buffalo
Jets Down 3
10:06 left
Start: Jets 23
PuntWk 14 Vs. NE
Jets Down 10
13:53 left
Start: Jets 15
Field GoalWk 14 Vs. NE
Jets Down 10
3:21 left
Start: NE 31
Missed Field GoalWk 14 Vs. NE
Jets Down 10
1:42 left
Start: Jets 33
TO On DownsWeek 15 Vs. Tenn.
Jets Down 4
10:01 left
Start: Jets 19
PuntWeek 15 Vs. Tenn
Jets Down 4
4:37 left
Start: Jets 16
TO On Downs -
BoCash says:
This year is clearly the year for a clear, objective QB competittion. Both Chad and KC had terrible times behind center last year(at times it seemed we only had a center). It was not the best wasy to evaluate the two of them. True Jets Fans know and love what Chad is capable of, in his career he has won many games, a few playoff games, and he has also out matched some of the best QBs in the leauge, I couldn’t be happier that he is on our roster next season regaurdless of his roles on our team. and KC on the ohter hand also I feel showed me alot, for a guy in the infancy of his NFL career with that line, it would have been hard to look much better then he did. Imagin if that imposter widereciever we had gotten from Tenn had caught that ball agaisnt Baltimore, and if one or two plays go our way we would have beaten the Redskins, and beating the Steelers, although at home, is undoubtly an achievement. I feel more confident then most about our QB situation, this season is certainly shaping up to be an interesting one.
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To Bent,
I watched the combines, and the broadcasters were stressing a lack of mobility with Flacco, but stated that is arm strength and accuracy were very good, not at the combine, but in his college career. -
Mikey says:
This is the most ludicrous argument I have ever heard. I am sick and tired of the jets being OK. Most Jet fans will be content if Chad is the QB they go 10-6 and then lose in the first round of the playoffs.
THEY WILL NEVER WIN A SUPER BOWL WITH CHAD PENNINGTON!!!
That is the bottomline, how many of you guys deep down can say that you think he can lead them there. Clemens has so many positives in his game and he finally has an opportunity to go into the season as a starter, work with the starting unit and lead the football team. It makes me absolutely sick to my stomach that we will would let chad become anything more than a solid backup. If Clemens isnt the right fit for the Jets then we need to find a QB…but its not pennington and his starting this year will just set back the team.
Look at the QB’s that have won super bowls in the past 6-7 years.
Eli Manning
Peyton Manning
Tom Brady
Ben RoethlisbergerThese are the best QB’s in the NFL. Chad is nowhere near this class, and maybe Clemens isnt either, but we need to let him develop LIKE ELI, and then who knows.
I can’t believe this would go on for more then two-three posts
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You do realize that Eli was worse than Chad this season, no?
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Don’t even go there, put chad on the giants team and they would have lost to Tampa. How can you make a comment like that and continue to post on this website…there should be some sort of filter.
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Bent says:
You beat me to the punch, seanmac. I was about to say “seanmac will tell you Eli was worse than Chad this season in a moment”.
A lot of things have to fall into place for a team to win a superbowl. The old adage “Chad could never win the Superbowl without a great defense” makes no sense because when did anyone ever win a Superbowl without a great defense?
Chad is as good as plenty of QBs that have won superbowls (and considerably better than some), but – like 99% of all QBs that play in the NFL – will probably never be on a team good enough to win one.
Of course he could win a Superbowl. Let’s say he started the Colts-Bears Superbowl instead of Grossman. He’d have probably led them to a win.
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Bent says:
Sorry to inform you, but statistically, he is correct Mikey.
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I can make that kind of comment because it is statistically verifiable. Courtesy of Football Outsiders:
Chad Pennington DPAR 15.6 DVOA -0.9%
Eli Manning DPAR 7.3 DVOA -10.2%You may not be aware of the website or its methodology, so I’ll sum up- Eli was worse than Chad over the course of the season. In fact, just about everyone was better than Eli for the course of the season, as he graded out as the 30th best quarterback in football. That’s not to say that he didn’t turn it on at the end of the season and play well, because he certainly did, but if you’re making a serious attempt to argue that Eli Manning is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, then you may be right…we may need a filter.
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Well put, SeanMac. Eli played like crap most of the year. Also good to note that as the Gaints D got better, so did Eli. Chad certainly could win a SB with a very good team around him. I’ve yet to see a QB that could win a SB without a very good team around them.
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This is frustrating because I am an enormous Jets fan, but I find myself arguing with blind Jet fans just like me most of the time. Show me statistics all you want, but the bottomline is that Chad does not have a quick release and does not threaten the defense downfield. This past season, some of the reason our run game was so terrible (other than our O-line) was that teams would put 8 guys in the box, bring there safety up because there was no threat of the deep ball. Look at Thomas Jones’ production with Kellen Clemens versus Chad Pennington, I’d bet you see pretty telling statistics there.
Its easy to say that if you put a great team around chad, he could win a super bowl, but that team better include a back-up quarterback to replace him after the first quarter.
The bears would have won the super bowl if they had chad?? Now I’ve heard it all.
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seanmac, well i was gratified that Lewin did not reject out of hand that height might have a role as a predictive factor and I was impressed that Lewin is becoming more comfortable with Ryan as a top pick. I also wonder what he thinks of Ryan’s relatively low number of sacks as opposed to attempts considering BC’s poor OL and lack of running game–everyone knew Ryan was passing, but he was only sacked 21 times. Last point, Brees is the exception to the height rule, but my point is that it’s a lot harder for a short QB to succeed, mainly becuase he has to be in the right system (preferably a West Coast offense) and need the right offensive personnel. It’s just easier to draft a tall guy. I still think Ryan is better than Brohm, but in the famed ’04 class Rivers graded higher than Big Ben, but Big Ben’s development and NFL success has come sooner. I also believe that Leinart beat out Cutler, so maybe being Lewin’s 2nd choice is better!
As for the “3-year starter rule,” I do not have the stats, but there are plenty of elite QBs, and a majority of the top ones, who excelled in either their 1st or 2nd years as starters. Just this season, Matt Schaub did a nice job as a first-year starter. But, there’s many that were good, then great, in their first 2 years, including Favre, Marino, Peyton, Big Ben, Brady, Warner, Palmer, etc. I would be more inclined to give KC a 2nd year as a starter if I saw anything more than brief flashes of NFL competence. His completion percentage, TD-INT ratio and number of sacks were all very high. Pinning all of that on the OL is just absolving KC of any responsibility as a pro QB.
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I meant low for KC’s completion percentage.
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Bent says:
Sure they would have. Grossman was awful that day and even an average performance would have been enough to win them the game.
I’m not going to argue about it, we all know what Pennington’s strengths and weaknesses are and of course I will acknowledge that the injuries have clearly taken their toll.
I don’t know the answer to Chad v Kellen v both v neither, but I reserve the right to defend Chad, because I like the guy.
P.S. I control the filter. Seanmac’s status is safe, trust me.
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Mikey – you’re certainly entitled to your opinion, but I’m unclear on why disagreeing with you renders one blind.
It’s hard to say that Chad doesn’t threaten defenders downfield, when the opposing D knows that the Jets Oline couldn’t open a can of soup with a can opener, much less a hole for a RB. On top of that, downfield plays take more than 3 seconds to develop, which is all that CP or KC ever had last year behind that pitiful excuse for an Oline.
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I’m pretty high on Leinart’s future, last year notwithstanding, so I don’t have a problem with his being highly rated.
As far as guys coming in and playing well right away, I think that you’re underestimating the importance of having the necessary support. Most of the guys who came in were building on foundations that were already laid out for them. Carson Palmer came in and played well in a situation where Jon Kitna had played well the year before. Roethlisberger came in and played well on a team where Tommy Maddox had played very well two years before and well in between injuries the year before. Rivers came in and had immediate success on a team where Brees had had terrific success the last two years. Marino was starting on a team that went to the Super Bowl the year before. Warner came in at the same time as the team added Torry Holt and Marshall Faulk, and when he got hurt the following year, Trent Green stepped in and was just as good as Warner had been. Circumstances matter. Clemens stepped in on a team whose success the year before had been almost exclusively a result of the quarterback play (and a very easy schedule), and he took over a team with horrendous pass blocking, horrendous run blocking and-at least to begin with-no defense to fall back on. The poor interior blocking is really the clincher, as no quarterback performs well when getting pressured consistently up the middle. Which is not to say that Clemens didn’t get himself into trouble with poor blitz recognition and pocket presence, because he did. But I would be inclined to give him a pass, particularly in light of the way Pennington had similar struggles under the same conditions. Whatever concerns you had about him coming in are still valid, but I wouldn’t think that there are firm conclusions to be drawn from what we saw on the field. (Which is one reason why I was opposed to throwing him in there to begin with- I didn’t see the point.)
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Seanmac – wasn’t the point of throwing KC in to get some experience? The season was clearly lost anyway – there may have been only a 5% (or less) chance that KC could produce under those circumstances, but the experience has got to have helped.
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I’ve done some looking into that, and for the most part getting thrown in midway through a season really doesn’t do much to prepare guys for the following year. They generally perform at about the same level, if not worse. The guys who do tend to get radically better are guys who performed exceptionally poorly in their first go round- Eli Manning and Alex Smith are two recent examples. In their cases, I don’t think it’s so much a question that they learned a lot on the job but rather that they were thrown on the field in terrible situations, and that their situations improved the following year (a full training camp worth of reps, free agent additions, etc). Clemens falls into the upper tier of the bracket of guys who were just awful (Eli and Alex Smith were literally twice as bad as him), and if he steps up next year, it’s probably going to have a lot more to do with the addition of Faneca, Woody, McFadden or who have you than with any learning he did under fire. He’d have been just as well off had he ridden the bench.
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Seanmac: I just realized I think I had a similar dicussion with you on JI SN: Batmans A Scientist) about DPAR, Clemens and throwing guys in midway through the season.
Seems to me that it’s a mixed bag, guys like Eli, McNabb , and even Patrick Ramsey improved considerably (This is by my simple measure – with is QB Rating Vs. Lg Average * attempts) from their first shortened year to their 2nd. Losman was terrible for 2 years before improving in his 3rd, while other guys never put it together, like Ryan Leaf and AKili Smith.My personal belief about Pennington is simple. He’s not good enough to lead the Jets on a 4th quarter comeback, in fact the last time he did it was in 2004 against the 49ers. He can be a pretty good QB, and he’s perfect for a team rebuilding who has a completely green QB (For example, whoever drafts Beck would be a perfect place for him to land, showing the rookie the ropes while starting one or two more yrs) but I think Clemens knowledge of the league is good enough that he has way more upside that Pennington can have in 2008.
If he’s a failure, and the Jets don’t trade Pennington, then Pennington’s the QB and the Jets have to look for a new QB, I just don’t think it’s worth it for the Jets to draft a rookie this year nor do I think it’s prudent to start Pennington (unless he’s lights out during training camp and Preseason.)
Basically, a tie in preseason performance should go to Clemens.
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Biegs, your list of 4th qtr drives is worthless. What do you think, it’s Chad against the world. It’s a team game. Do you think a missed block or a dropped pass might have something to do with the drive.
Mikey, you are an ignorant Jet fan. Based on your opinion of Chad, you would have hated Eli Manning, prior to his end of year run. Ignorant Giant fans were saying that they could never win it with Eli, prior to his awesome finish. Now, you probably think he’s the next coming of Joe Montana.
It’s a team game! No Offensive or Defensive Lines – No Playoffs. No running game – No Playoffs. No defensive pressure – No Playoffs. No Playoffs – Life sucks! Keep going Tangini!
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Harvlis,
I’m aware it’s a team game… But it’s telling that the Jets were much less succesful per drive with Pennington at the helm.
Missed blocks and dropped passes are a part of the game, but every single indivudual stat is depedent on the team part of the game.Clemens #s are partially skewed by two very obvious mistakes that weren’t his fault, a dropped TD pass by McCairians (that would have tied the game against Baltimore lat ein the 4th quarter) and a dropped first down pass by Cotchery in OT against the Redskins that would have put the Jets in FG range.
Someone had mentioned earlier that the stats were meaningless with more drive information.. so I provided all of that also.
I’m not really sure what your point is.. Giants fans had every to be dissapointed with Eli’s production before the end of the season, just like Bears fans do with Grossman’s in 2006 (if he somehow turned it on for the Playoffs like Eli did).
Everyone on the site is in agreement that both the OL and DL were horrendous last yr, if the new signings turn out to be busts and Faneca turns out to be overrated adn old it won’t matter if Pennington, Clemens, or Brady is back there.
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seanmac, I’m going on both stats, which are awful for KC, and my view of how he looked out there. I do not think the Jets offense at the skill positions helps KC’s game. He needs taller and faster WRs, he needs a good safety valve, preferably a TE, and he needs plays where the pocket shifts. I think he has the physical tools, except for height. The mental, so-called “intangibles” which a stat guy like you dislike are, IMO, what KC lacks. This draft has guys like Ryan, Brohm, Woodson, Flacco and Ainge who all fit the bill as a prototypical dropback QB–height, arm, decent college stats, etc. So, I think that there’s nothing wrong with drafting one of these guys. I think Chad and KC should face some real competition in training camp, whether from a rookie or from a free agent. The Jets have not had an elite NFL offense since 1998, with strapping, strong-armed Vinny T at the helm. I also think the Parcells-Belichick-Mangini coaching tree works better with a big, strong-armed, drop-back QB (any surprise that Parcells signed 6-4 Josh McCown when he has 6-2 John Beck on the roster? I’m convinced he did that to draft Ryan and relegate Beck to 3rd string/possible cut territory).
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Bent says:
What’s your opinion on JaMarcus Russell, sack and mac?
He seems to have been (conveniently?) omitted from this discussion.
Biebs – Chad did lead two game winning 4th quarter drives in 2006. OK, so they weren’t comebacks (the score was tied), but it’s better than nothing. I guess Clemens led two OT drives for FGs last year, but also came up empty a few times in that situation.
That hasn’t helped me make up my mind either way.
Wow, Woody’s record didn’t last long.
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It’s amazing to me that the stats show that getting some mid-season on-field work doesn’t tend to lead to better performance the next year – really seems that the opposite should be true.
However, the fact that this stat may be true doesn’t mean that the point of playing KC when the season was lost wasn’t to get him some real-time experience. That would be confusing what stats have told us (in hindsight) about what usually happens with the coaching staff’s motives. Seems clear to me that the season was for all intents and purposes over, they’d seen plenty of CP and wanted to (i.e. the “point” of the move) give KC some real life snaps to see how he looked and for him to see how the game looks at real speed.
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Russell did lousy in the Lewin rankings. He has all the physical tools, but I thought it was a huge mistake not to bring him into training camp early last season. I have not seen him, yet. But, I probably would have drafted him no. 1. His potential to me outweighed his limited college success, but he could be this generation’s Ryan Leaf, it’s just too early to tell.
Unlike seanmac, I like Derek Anderson (6-6) and it’s real interesting to me that he got considerably better in all stats, except completion percentage in his 2nd season, but seanmac is down on him. If there’s any validity to the “3-year rule”, wouldn’t he be the poster child? If he gets his completion percentage up over 60% and his TD-INT ratio to 2-1 (both of which would take a slight improvement), he’d be one of the better young QBs in the NFL. Yet, I believe he did particularly poorly in the Lewin rankings.
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Bent says:
I think Russell is a great prospect, but with high bust potential too. Unfortuantely, I think Oakland, being the shambles that it is, was just about the worst place he could have landed and missing camp didn’t help either. Looks like he’ll get his shot next year, which I’ll watch with interest.
I think he could show signs of promise even on a bad team, just because he is so tough to sack, but he can also be horribly erratic. Last year, he looked out of his depth (in fact, his Junior year was great, but before that he was poor too).
Obviously he couldn’t have 40 starts because he was only in college three years – how does the system account for that? (I realise that even with another year, he would’ve probably fallen short of that number).
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steviek says:
i’m one who won’t scream whoever gets the job (at first) and can support either. obviously by the posts, both have their pros and cons.
but i’m a little disappointed that only a few are willing to concede its very difficult to make many conclusions of a rookie year on a bad team. and dont see how the book can be closed on a guy after year 2 too.
hopefully, if clemens gets the job and improves some, but is still uneven, jet fans wont try to run him out of town.
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Russell is a strange bird- his low starts and questionable early career scream bust, but his final year he threw for a ridiculous completion percentage. He has the best arm I’ve ever seen, but I’ll be surprised if he turns into a better quarterback than Brady Quinn or Kevin Kolb. I wouldn’t have taken him over Calvin Johnson or Adrian Peterson.
Anderson wouldn’t be considered in the Lewin rankings, as he was a low round pick. He had terrible accuracy in college, and his accuracy was poor in Cleveland last year (though better). Anderson’s year was better but not dissimilar to Chad’s in 2006- 65.3 DPAR/ 15.5% DVOA versus Chad’s 52.2 DPAR/10.3% DVOA. The big difference is in the quality of the defenses they faced, which made Anderson look better than he was and Pennington look worse- Chad’s VOA was just a 6.4% before being adjusted for the quality of the defenses he faced, while Anderson’s VOA was 19.5% before you factor in the lousy defenses. Anderson was still better, but the numbers give you a better idea as to how much was a product of the schedule. He’s certainly a vast improvement on Charlie Frye, but it’s questionable how much of last year was him and how much was his surrounding cast- a top three offensive line, excellent receiving options at #1, #2 and tight end, a working ground game, etc. I don’t know. I’m covering Cleveland for PFP this year and I’ll be breaking down some tape on them in the next few weeks to supplement the numbers, but it’s not at all clear to me that Anderson is any better than Brady Quinn would be in that same situation. If I was a team with a mid to low first round pick, I’d consider burning it for him, but I wouldn’t say that Atlanta would be best served by offering the #3 for him, for instance, while I would say without hesitation that the #3 would be a bargain for someone like Roethlisberger.
As for the notion that the Jets haven’t had an elite offense since 1998, it’s not really true. In 1998, the offense averaged 33.02 yards per drive, which is excellent. But in 2002, they averaged 31.24 yards per drive, and in 2004 they averaged 31.52 yards per drive. Not as good as the ’98 crew, but definitely in the upper portion of the league. The difference is that the ’98 offense had a terrific defense backing it up- they only gave up 25.23 yards per drive, so you had a net gain of 7.80 yards per drive, second in the league. When you have that kind of disparity, you’re basically playing downhill all the time, which is why the Jets offense scored as much as it did. In 2004, the defense was good but not that good, and the team was net 4.17. In 2002, the defense was lousy, so the net ended up being -2.07 yards per drive. So the 2002 and 2004 offenses weren’t much less potent than the 1998 offense, it just had further to go every time out, which results in many fewer points scored over the course of a full season.
And seeing as Parcells is the one who groomed 6’2″ Tony Romo to be his quarterback in Dallas, that he was happy to open the 1998 season with 6’2″ Glenn Foley, that he drafted 6’3″ Chad Pennington and coddled 6’3″ Ray Lucas (but only after trading for 6’3″ Rick Mirer), I’m not sure that I would read much of anything into his McCown signing. It’s kind of like applying a Marxist interpretation to lit criticism- you’re just pounding everything in to fit the theory, whether it fits or not. I’d still bet dollars to donuts that the Dolphins are going to pass on Ryan if they stay put at #1 overall.
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steviek, KC had the worst QB rating in the NFL last season. To improve just to average would be a huge improvement. If he “improves” 10 points each year, he’ll break 90 in 2011. Do you want to wait that long?
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Just to talk about the 98/02 comparison again, here are the Jets offensive DVOA per game once Vinny came in: 27.5, 27.6, -52.9, 49.3, 29.4, -31.7, 16.8, -35, 24.4, 57.8, 26.5, 28, 15.5, 28.2. Avg: 15.1
Here are the 02 numbers for Chad’s starts: 23, 30.5, -4.6, 47.2, 26.3, 27.6, 29.5, 50.1, 24.3, 20.2, 39.9, 69.2. Avg: 31.93
If you’re looking at the DVOA numbers, the 02 team under Chad was much, much stronger than the 98 team under Vinny, as they were able to churn out the same or more number of good to great games without any of the offensive implosions the Jets had in 98 (St. Louis, KC, Indy, though it should be noted that the KC game was a bad weather game).
We don’t have individual position numbers before 2000, and I’d like to see how Vinny’s shake out, but one way or the other, there’s no shame in Chad’s game. His DVOA on the season was 49.1%- the only quarterbacks who have done better than that since 2000 were Peyton Manning in 2004 and 2006 and Tom Brady last year. That’s how dominant Chad was in 2002. His DPAR was 110.7 despite only playing twelve games- he just barely missed out MVP Rich Gannon, who played sixteen.
Chad was absurd in 2002, 6’3″ or no.
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Parcells “groomed” Romo as a last resort, after he cycled through every 6-4+ retread out there. I never got the impression that Parcells was 100% sold on Romo and I always thought he was forced to play him. And, it’s amazing revisionist history that he was “happy” to start the ’98 season with Foley (who he inherited), everyone knew he brought Vinny in to start. At least I did and I think most Jets fans did, too. Also, what choice did he have in ’99? Plus, his first choice was 6-4 Tom Tupa. I don’t want to get crazy either, 6-3 isn’t optimal, but it’s better than 6-2 or shorter, which is what you get with KC. Pennington, at that time in the draft, was great value, even if he was an inch less than prototypical. Like the Lewin ranking, I’m just saying that if you want the optimal QB prototype, go for the 6-4+ QB. And, I’d bet dollars to donuts that Parcells will draft Ryan.
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seanmac, you know I’m not an FO devotee. The Jets offense was 15th in points in 2002 and 17th in 2004. It was 22nd in yards in 2002 and an above-average 12th in 2004. To me, that’s not elite. I wasn’t criticizing Chad based on his height and I have never done that in any of my posts. He IS only 1 inch shorter that the 6-4 prototype. IMO, he’s, at least, 3 inches taller than KC. My height criticism has always been focused on KC. I liked Chad in ’02 and before he was injured in ’04. But, he was never right in ’05, and got injured. In ’06, I thought he played well and I was very optimistic that he would have a great ’07, especially because he had the opportunity to do football workouts, as opposed to rehabbing during the off-season. He laid an egg in ’07 and, to me, did not show the ability to make NFL throws anymore and, in particular, the short out. Even with that, I have stated that now after the Jets improved the OL, I would start Chad, and draft a better replacement than KC. You want to give KC a shot because his Lewin profile says he should be as good as Ryan, Brohm, Woodson, etc. Well, what I saw on the field with him was far below what I would consider NFL competent play. Only time will tell, but if I’m right, the Jets have spent a lot of money to reach the upper edge of mediocrity.
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As for Clemens improving, his DVOA this year was -18.1%. If you look at guys who were in the same range (let’s say -13 to -23 or so) and how they did the following year, you get this group, and this is how the guys did the following year:
00
T. Couch -13.1/-27.7
J. Plummer- -13.3/+5.9
C. Batch -22.5/-8.701
M. Hasselbeck -14/+22
M. McMahon -18.4/-32.302
Q. Carter -16.6/-16.7
J. Harrington -20.1/-22.6
J. Plummer -20.8/+2503
M. Vick -19.3/-24.9
D. Brees -21.5/+29.5
J. Harrington -22.6/-10.2
K. Boller -22.4/-2.0I could go on, but you get the idea. The guys who were going to be good improved quite a bit in the following season, while the guys who were going to be busts didn’t. So it’s fair to say that what Clemens does next year is going to say a lot about whether he’s the future of the team or not.
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Oh, relax. I’m just giving you grief with the height thing.
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How about if KC gets worse or better, but still pretty bad? seanmac, would you stick with KC with if he “improves” to -10 in the hope that he’d reach positive territory in the 2010 season? My point is that there’s a time when the Munchkin needs to be benched. Is it after next season? 2010? 2011?
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Oh my god what is wrong with Mangini Let Kellen play We finally have a (maybe) god offensive line don’t let feather arm get the ball give it to the man
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sack,
improvement it’s not that linear of 10 points a year. to use a that cliche, sometimes the light just comes on.
but its a good question, when is it fair to make a judgment that a guy is a starting qb or not. if other pieces are there offensively, its fair to look at the qb if he’s throwing int’s and struggling to get the ball in the endzone.
i think we can agree that the jets were brutal, provided little support for a rookie qb in protection, dropped balls, ability to get open, running game, the works.
he probably regressed some as the season went on. but if protection is there its easier to make a call. no qb is going to be able to complete 3rd & 8 & more consistently. but if the protection is there, he has a little time, there’s a running game, and there are alot more 3rd & 4 or 5, and they can’t score, it’s on the qb.
but chances are that a young qb will still be inconsistent game to game and even quarter to quarter. i think if clemens does win he job there will be flashes of talent, big plays, quality drives, etc. there will also be brutal turnovers and bad reads.
if you dont see some of that talent… mobility in the pocket, the tough sideline throws, deep accuracy, you’re not going to stay with the guy.
with the pieces now, if this team is healthy and starts 1-3 again because of the offense, the other qb is probably coming in. but if they are playing musical qb’s with whoever people want to bring in, it’s going to be another bad season. -
If Clemens posts a DVOA of 0.0 (a.k.a. exactly average) or better, that would show enough progress to feel good about him going forward. If he gets a substantial amount of playing time and posts another negative DVOA, that’s reason to be concerned. It doesn’t mean he’s doomed to failure- Drew Brees posted two straight seasons that were noticeably worse than Clemens’ before the light went on- but it does mean that, like San Diego, the Jets would need to make other plans at quarterback and then if Clemens got his act together, it would be a bonus. But again, Clemens’ performance wasn’t especially out of line with what you would expect from a young player tossed into the lineup, and it was significantly better than the last three guys who were picked #1 overall managed (albeit in extremely limited action for Russell). I expect he’ll be fine. And while there are quarterbacks who are intriguing in this draft class, I don’t think there is anyone who could beat Clemens out in camp, and that includes the Ryans and Brohms, much less the Flaccos and Hennes, so adding one would be a strictly long range consideration. (Whether Clemens can beat out Pennington is another matter, but I’m comfortable putting the two of them in open competition and having a tie go to Clemens.)
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blebs-
I don’t put that much stock into fourth quarter drives, as it’s arbitrarily limiting sample size for what is basically narrative effect.
You’re right, I remember our conversation over on JI. Good to see you over here.
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seanmac, “lightbulb goes on” sounds a lot like “it”…or “intangibles.” Aren’t we veering into the non-quantifiable realm of subjective opinion? Say it isn’t so…
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Not really- Drew Brees had two very poor years followed by an excellent one, and he hasn’t been bad since. It’s not describing an amorphous quality but an easily observable and demonstrably sustainable level of production. Call it what you like.
There are some interesting posts on Derek Anderson over at FO. Thought I would re-post 1 or 2:
I pulled every season by a 24 year old who entered the league since 1978, who met the following criteria:
1) he ended up throwing at least 150 pass attempts in 6 or more seasons in his career (plus, added E. Manning); and
2) he threw 150+ pass attempts at age 24, and it was either his first or second season doing so (this excludes guys like Marino, Roethlisberger, and Peyton, who were well into their careers by age 24).The resulting list has 37 players, ranging from hall of famers like Favre and Brady, to journeymen like Peete and Tomczak, and all points in between. I think a pretty good comp group for Anderson. 6 of them completed more than 60% at age 24 (Brady, Favre, George, Culpepper, Bulger, Montana, and we will be adding Cutler to this list). Those 6 were as likely to regress as improve the next year, mainly because of well, regression to the mean.
The other 31, some of whom are listed by mrh in post 67, averaged a completion percentage of 53.5% at age 24. If you want to make era adjustments, you can say that Anderson is about average to slightly above average compared to this group as a whole. That same group averaged a completion percentage of 57.0% the next season, so a 3.5% increase. I’d put that as my over/under on Anderson’s change in comp% next year.
Among guys who had below average comp % at age 24 (but were better in other areas) and would have pretty good careers–Doug Williams, Testaverde, Beuerlein, Everett, Chris Miller, McNair, Cunningham, and we can probably add Eli Manning.
So, I cannot agree that QBs tend to not improve in comp% as their careers go on. Most of them I am looking at did. If he is still below league average at age 27, then yeah, he’s probably the next Jay Schroeder. I would put him at a career path in line with Jim Everett, Drew Bledsoe, and Eli Manning–other moderate comp% guys, who had high td% and decent YPA.
Here are some posts I have written on related topics:
In Search of the Next Brady or Bulger
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=347Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=413Similarity Scores for the New 2007 Quarterbacks
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=467Anderson fits the profile of the late round QB successes of the last 25 years, height of 6?3? or taller, perhaps a little on the skinny side, from a BCS caliber school that was bowl caliber and that ran a pro style offense, and most importantly, like all the others, was at least average in his first true opportunity to start.
Now, if I had my choice, I would take the high comp%, high YPA, decent td% guy (check out Cutler’s comps). But secondarily, Anderson, who we might classify as a moderate to below average comp%, good YPA, high TD%, above average int%, has lots of good comps. Based on my research, it is highly unlikely that Anderson is a fluke that we don’t hear from by 2010. Is he the next Schroeder or Brooks, or the next Everett, Esiason, Bledsoe or Eli, well, that we will find out.
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I think a big concern for me is that Anderson followed the Grossman path of excelling against bad defenses and then being average (or worse) against good defenses. Since he faces the NFC East and AFC South next year, and since I consider all 8 teams to have average or above average defenses, I expect him to really show us how good he is– which is to say, I expect him to be completely average.
Breakdown of Anderson last year…
Bad defense, Comp/Att, %, TD:INT
CIN, 20/33, 60.6, 5:1
MIA, 18/25, 72, 3:1
STL, 18/25, 72, 3:0
HOU, 24/35, 68.6, 2:1
NYJ, 16/29, 55.2, 2:1
CIN, 29/48, 60.4, 2:4
SF, 11/20, 55, 1:1
Total, 136/215, 63, 18:9Decent defense
BAL, 10/18, 55.6, 2:1
SEA, 29/48, 60.4, 0:1
BAL, 24/38, 63.2, 0:1
ARI, 21/41, 51.2, 2:2
BUF, SNOW GAME
Total, 84/135, 58, 4:5Good defense
PIT, 13/28, 46.4, 1:1
OAK, 18/37, 48.6, 1:2
NE, 22/43, 51.2, 2:3
PIT, 16/35, 45.7, 3:0
Total, 69/143, 48, 7:6:: Cyrus
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Anyone who watched Anderson knows he has a few shortcomings that he hasn’t been able to shake. They were obvious during his 3.5 starts in 2006, they were obvious last year, and judging by his college numbers, I’d wager they were obvious then.
1. His short game sucks. I can’t tell you how many slants, RB swings and other short routes that he just completely missed on.
2. He thinks he’s Brett Favre, and every so often thinks he can throw into a downfield window between 3 defenders without getting it picked. Well, he can’t.
3. This is related to #1, but his accuracy is poor. While Edwards and Winslow each had their share of dumbfounding drops on good throws(Winslow’s mostly came after he hurt his shoulder), Anderson often put the ball in terrible places, or just missed the receiver all together. This was most obvious during the 2nd Cinnci game, where he threw 4 INTs. Don’t give me BS about the wind, at least 2 I recall were short throws that went nowhere near the receiver. I try to block that game out, so I dont remember the other 2 that well.
Is it possible that Anderson will overcome these issues? Sure, anything is. Given what I’ve seen, which includes 18 full starts and at least 4 other quarters of play (not including preseason), I dont believe he will.
This doesn’t mean Quinn will be better, but you dont trade a 1st and 2nd rounder to never find out.
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To defend Anderson, he has never gone into training camp as the consensus QB1 and QBs do have to get into a certain rhythm with their receivers. Also, Jamal Lewis isn’t exactly Tomlinson or Jones Drew when it comes to being a receiver out of the backfield. Plus, why pass to an RB when you have Winslow? For a point of reference, Palmer had a great completion pct. game of 74.2 against Pittsburgh at home, and a lousy 38.6 on the road for a 53.3 average (in both games, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 losses), which was significantly below his season completion pct. of 64.9. Anderson, with his lower completion pct., threw 4 TDs and 1 INT also resulting in 2 losses. One could argue that Anderson had better success against the Steelers with inferior weapons.
Like I said before, Anderson is real close to being a quality NFL QB and given that most people believe that you have to give a QB a 3-year window, I’d be optimistic if I were a Browns fan. While FO has focused on what he can’t do, what he can do with his strong arm and height is pass over the top pretty accurately. The short game gives a QB pretty stats, the long game makes him NFL-quality.
I’m not sold on Quinn. I really want to know his height. He was listed at 6-4 coming out of ND and is listed at 6-2 on NFL.com. He’s a strong guy, like Garrard, so my concerns about health aren’t as high, but he would still need to deliver the ball quickly and have the offense compensate for his lack of height. Between the two, Anderson has not shown me any reason to bench him, yet.
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Interesting similarity scores generated over at pro football reference blog. Pretty depressing for Clemens, I should think:
KELLEN CLEMENS [AGE 24, 250 ATT, 52.0% COMP, 6.1 YPA, 2.0% TD, 4.0% INT]
player year age sim score
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1 Andrew Walter 2006 24 778+
2 David Woodley 1982 24 730
3 Randy Wright 1987 26 726
4 Todd Blackledge 1984 23 723+
5 Don Majkowski 1988 24 717+
6 Browning Nagle 1992 24 711+
7 Steve Walsh 1990 24 704+
8 Rick Mirer 1996 26 700
9 J.P. Losman 2005 24 681+
10 Steve Young 1986 25 657+
11 Josh McCown 2003 24 654+
12 David Klingler 1994 25 642
13 Kyle Boller 2005 24 641
14 Craig Whelihan 1997 26 639+
15 Danny Kanell 1997 24 626+
15 Ken Dorsey 2004 23 626+
15 Tim Hasselbeck 2003 25 626+
================================================And here’s what might have been- Cutler’s:
JAY CUTLER [AGE 24, 467 ATT, 63.6% COMP, 7.5 YPA, 4.3% TD, 3.0% INT]
player year age sim score
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1 Tom Brady 2001 24 803+
2 David Carr 2004 25 746
3 Joe Montana 1981 25 745
4 Troy Aikman 1992 26 737
5 J.P. Losman 2006 25 725
6 Daunte Culpepper 2001 24 713
7 Brett Favre 1992 23 686+
8 Ben Roethlisberger 2006 24 683
9 Drew Brees 2005 26 679
10 Philip Rivers 2006 25 678+
11 Peyton Manning 1999 23 674+
12 Jim Kelly 1986 26 669+
13 Tony Eason 1986 27 646
14 Peyton Manning 2000 24 641
15 Bernie Kosar 1987 24 624
15 Peyton Manning 2001 25 624 -
And here are Derek Anderson’s. I’m not sure I agree with the methodology, but it’s still interesting to see these:
JAY CUTLER [AGE 24, 467 ATT, 63.6% COMP, 7.5 YPA, 4.3% TD, 3.0% INT]
player year age sim score
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1 Tom Brady 2001 24 803+
2 David Carr 2004 25 746
3 Joe Montana 1981 25 745
4 Troy Aikman 1992 26 737
5 J.P. Losman 2006 25 725
6 Daunte Culpepper 2001 24 713
7 Brett Favre 1992 23 686+
8 Ben Roethlisberger 2006 24 683
9 Drew Brees 2005 26 679
10 Philip Rivers 2006 25 678+
11 Peyton Manning 1999 23 674+
12 Jim Kelly 1986 26 669+
13 Tony Eason 1986 27 646
14 Peyton Manning 2000 24 641
15 Bernie Kosar 1987 24 624
15 Peyton Manning 2001 25 624 -
seanmac, I think you repeated Cutler for Anderson. I’m glad that someone has done the statistical analysis to back up my view of KC. He was terrible last season and, to expect him to achieve NFL competence, has no historical antecedent. And for everyone who says, “but Steve Young is on the list” has to realize that 6-2, mobile QBs have done particularly well in West Coast offenses (Montana, Young, McNabb, Favre, Garcia). The Jets don’t run the West Coast.
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My bad. Here is Anderson:
DEREK ANDERSON [AGE 24, 527 ATT, 56.5% COMP, 7.2 YPA, 5.5% TD, 3.6% INT]
player year age sim score
================================================
1 Dan Marino 1985 24 852
2 Drew Bledsoe 1997 25 718
3 Randall Cunningham 1987 24 701+
4 Aaron Brooks 2001 25 674
5 Jim Everett 1988 25 672
6 John Elway 1984 24 668+
7 Michael Vick 2004 24 661
8 Jim Zorn 1979 26 657
9 Don Majkowski 1989 25 650
10 Eli Manning 2005 24 635+
11 Jeff Blake 1995 25 634
12 Timm Rosenbach 1990 24 632+
13 Jake Plummer 1998 24 609+
14 Chris Miller 1990 25 606
15 Peyton Manning 2000 24 603
================================================ -
Oh, I don’t know about that. The history of vertical passing is littered with sub 6’4″ types. Everybody from Terry Bradshaw to Roger Staubach to Dan Fouts to Jim Kelly to John Elway were 6’3″. Trent Green and Marc Bulger are both 6’3″. Kurt Warner is 6’2″. If you want to tell me that one inch made all the difference, I’m not inclined to believe it. Oh, and the guy with the best downfield throws of all time, our own Joe Namath? 6’2″.
And I confess, I find it hilarious that the quarterback with the highest similarity score to Clemens is 6’6″ Andrew Walter.
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seanmac, I know you’re playing around, because only 4 of the 17 QBs you listed were 6-4 or over. As for Joe Namath, Staubach, Fouts, Bradshaw, etc. different eras. Elway was the greatest QB at throwing on the run in NFL history, but when he had TD and was more of a drop back QB, he won 2 Super Bowls…pretty interesting, no? Offensive and defensive linemen are taller, heavier and quicker now. As for Namath, his cannon arm and lightning quick release sort of proves my point: to succeed at 6-2, you have to be extraordinary, like Namath or Favre. Also, needless to say, Namath’s career was severely impacted by injuries…which is another of my points. An immobile, 6-2 QB would have real problems succeeding in today’s NFL. But, I do believe that Namath would be a star today (especially with better knee surgery and awareness of injuries). I also think Fran Tarkenton would be a star today, too. He’s sort of like Brees. But, Fran at 6-0 never did get that Super Bowl ring. Oh, and why don’t you look at the winning Super Bowl QBs since 1990…the majority are 6-4 or over, as are all of the Super Bowl QBs this decade. And, the 6-4 or over test is really just to grade talent for the draft. I already said that 1″ wouldn’t cause me to downgrade an otherwise worthy talent, especially guys with freakish skills like Elway. Does KC have Namath like skills?
More fun historical facts, Namath (at 6-2) was taller than Starr, Dawson, Unitas and Morrall…he was actually taller than his peers. Staubach, Bradshaw, and Stabler (as well as Bert Jones, who I thought was one of the best QBs never to win a Super Bowl, and Plunkett, Archie Manning, etc.) all at 6-3, were probably at the high end for their era. Taller than Griese, Kilmer, Tarkenton, Jurgenson, Pastorini, Jim Hart, John Hadl, Ken Anderson, John Brodie, Joe Ferguson, Jaworski, Theisman, Tommy Kramer, etc. The only 6-4+ guys of note were Bartkowski, Morton, Roman Gabriel and Grogan, but they were the exceptions. In the 70s, an era of the drop back QB, the taller guys dominated the Super Bowl with Griese being the exception. In the 80s, height wasn’t a factor…but also the best teams, probably as a reaction to the 49ers West Coast offense, built ball control teams with stout defenses. Hard to put Theisman, McMahon, or Simms in the Staubach, Bradshaw, Stabler group.
In context, probably the optimal height for the prototypical QB has grown over time, just as the average height for Americans has grown. All I know is that in today’s NFL, you better have a sick skill set if you want to succeed at 6-2.
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Fair enough, although I would note that Theismann was running the same system as Doug Williams and Mark Rypien, and he did as well as they did in it. I agree that the difference between eras makes some physical comparisons moot. On the other hand, it’s pretty much accepted that no quarterback this side of Dan McGuire can actually “see” over the tops of his linemen; the front line guys are just too big. When you’re inside the pocket, it’s all about creating passing lanes, and when you’re outside the pocket and in the clear, you’re going to see as much at 6’2″ as you are at 6’5″. It’s not like the difference between being a 6’2″ shooting guard and a 6’5″ shooting guard- the advantages accrued to a taller quarterback aren’t nearly as stark. (In basketball, a smaller player cannot start at the 2 slot, period. In football, about half of the top ten quarterbacks in any given year are on the smaller side. It’s a whole different deal.)
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I would define “small” as 6-2 or less. There are really only a few productive QBs that size in the NFL today. McNabb, Romo, Garcia and Brees come to mind, but I’d venture to say that you would have to concede that the only “franchise” QB that you would consider if you were a GM is Cutler, who is 6-3. Also, I disagree with your height analysis mainly because QBs have to make up their minds where to throw in miliseconds and the pass rush will distract a 6-2 QB sooner than a 6-4 QB. Also, a 6-2 guy really can’t step up in the pocket, they usually just tuck and run. I’m not really sure that’s debatable. Plus, as I’ve noted over and over, 6-2 guys to succeed have to be mobile and need an offense that caters to their mobility. That’s why the West Coast offense is so perfect for 6-2 mobile guys with accurate arms. I’m just evaluating KC and Jets fans have to hope he’s in the Romo/Brees mold. If he is, the Jets need to cater the offense to him by drafting or signing a Owens/Colston type and a Witten/Bush safety valve.
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I would point out that while those players may have been relatively taller considering the time that they played in, you hit a point where the advantages of height can be offset by the disadvantages in an absolute sense. Quite simply, the bigger you are, the slower your feet are likely to be. I remember the first time I saw Ryan Leaf in college, the first thing I thought was that he was too big to get out of his own way. He just couldn’t set up very quickly and as a result he was having a lot of problems dealing with interior blitzing. I also was at Arizona State during the Andrew Walter era, so I got to see plenty of the advantages and disadvantages of being 6’6”. Walter had a good arm and was considered a first round prospect for a while but his feet were slow, which meant it took him too long to get set up- as a result, he was frequently operating under pressure. I caught two live games where he went up against Aaron Rodgers, and it was striking how much better a player Rodgers was- Rodgers had very nimble feet, he got set quickly and he was able to make decisions comfortably in the pocket, while Walter was much more dependent on his blocking holding up. It’s a concern I would have about Joe Flacco. (It’s also a reason I’m down on Jamarcus Russell, starts aside.) Flacco is pretty athletic for his size, but his footwork needs a lot of work, and there are concerns that his throwing motion will end up being too deliberate for him to be successful. I’ve been watching as much tape of him as I can find on the internet, and I’m bummed that there isn’t anything on Walter at ASU, as I’d like to see them side-by-side.
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So people can see some tape for themselves.
Here’s Matt Ryan being broken down by Mike Mayock:
http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d806a38a9
Here’s Joe Flacco, who the Jets have shown some interest in:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=ZxW_RdJjtos
Here’s Andre Woodson:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=DWNqI8kSZxY
Here’s Brian Brohm:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=IxC2WrG8cuQ
Here’s Chad Henne carving up Florida:
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Jets Showing Interest In Joe Flacco
Sunday, March 09th 2008, 8:22 pm by Gary GrundKevin Tresolini of the Delaware News Journal reports that the Jets have been showing interest in Delaware quarterback Joe Flacco. The Bears and Dolphins could also have interest if he falls to them in the 2nd round. Flacco has a rather large frame, standing at 6?6? and weighing roughly 230lbs.
Paul Domowitch of the Philadelphia Daily News believes that Flacco has impressed enough that he could have potentially moved his stock into the first-round.
University of Delaware quarterback Joe Flacco continues to wow NFL scouts. He followed up his solid throwing performance at last month’s scouting combine with another impressive workout yesterday at Delaware’s Pro Day. “He threw the ball great,” said an AFC scout who attended Flacco’s early-morning on-campus workout. “He’s done everything right in the offseason. Everything.” Has his stock risen enough to get him into the first round? “I think so,” the scout said. “Right now, there’s a lot of teams that have him rated ahead of Matt Ryan.”
The Jets will select 36th overall, 5th in the 2nd round.
It all depends on if Kellen can progess as a leader and player in the off-season. The pre-season games will surely tell us who’s going to be taking the snaps in week 1 but I believe it will be Chad. He is the proven leader in this organization with the heart and determination unlike anyone else on this team. Hopefully he has been able to improve his arm strength. With our new offensive line Chad can win alot of games. He knows how to make the right decisions most of his int’s come in the 4th quarter when were losing and he is forced to make something happen. Give him time to find the open reciever and with an improved run game he can take us back deep into the playoffs.