Opinion: McFadden — Buyer Beware
Dan Breen is taking on the McFadden issue that’s been circling around the Jets. The latest looks like that McFadden might be taken by Big Al at #4, but you never know what’s true and what’s a smokescreen. Either way, we promise to put aside the McFadden issue for a while now.
With Kris Jenkins and Calvin Pace in the fold, the Jets no longer seem to be in urgent need of either a nose tackle or an outside rusher. That being the case, all but one of the consensus seven best players in the draft will either be off the board (Ryan, the Longs) or don’t fill needs (Gholsten, Ellis, Dorsey). Leaving the Jets with…
Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas.
Most Jet fans, and, it seems, the TJB community would be thrilled with this selection. McFadden is viewed as another Adrian Peterson, a speedy, exciting runner who will take the league by storm and add an explosiveness to the Jet offense that isn’t believed to be there now. And it’s very possible that he would.
History, however, raises some yellow flags:
- High draft position does not necessarily correlate with successful performance at the RB position. For instance, the top ten running backs in Football Outsiders’ 2007 DPAR consisted of two undrafted free agents (Ryan Grant and Kenny Watson); two fourth round picks (Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber); and a third round selection, Brian Westbrook, who led the league. Of the five first round picks in the top ten, Joseph Addai was selected 30th, and Laurence Maroney 21st. Only LaDanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson and Fred Taylor were chosen in the top ten picks.
- This trend has applied to the Jets for nearly twenty years. Since 1990, the Jets’ primary backs have been Blair Thomas, Johnny Johnson, Adrian Murrell, Curtis Martin and Thomas Jones. Of that group, Martin, a third rounder, was unquestionably the best player. Murrell, also effective, was selected in the fifth. Johnny Johnson was a seventh round pick. Jones was a top ten pick by the Cardinals in 2000, but struggled for several years to establish himself in the league, and is now playing for his fourth team. About Blair Thomas, the second overall selection in the 2000 NFL draft… the less said, the better. (As for the most notable backups during this time frame, Lamont Jordan was a #2, and Leon Washington a #4.)
Point being… choosing a running back that high offers no guarantees.
There’s another concern with McFadden, which is his history of questionable off-the-field behavior. Comparisons to Lawrence Phillips are unfair… but then again, so are comparisons to Curtis Martin. Let’s just say that the burden of proof is on McFadden in this regard, and will be for some time.
Bottom line, McFadden is an exciting player, and, to reiterate, could very well prove to be a superstar. But… the Jets have a quality RB tandem already in Jones and Washington, and, despite the signing of Pace, the addition of a second edge rusher could elevate the Jets’ defense to a very high level. That being the case, I’d prefer that they picked Gholsten.
Oh, and one other thing; what if McFadden and Gholsten are BOTH gone at #6 (along with the Longs and Matt Ryan)? Do they draft a DT? Can’t see it… which would seem to leave them reaching for a CB. My preference, in that circumstance, would be that they trade down.
Finally, another potential dilemma; what if Matt Ryan is available at #6?
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Pass on Matt Ryan and draft McKelvin or DRC if that’s the case, please no Sedrick Ellis.
If McFadden is available, I think the Jets will trade down. Not with Dallas, because the thought that Dallas would give up two first rounders for a RB when they have Marion Barber is absurd. They could trade with a team like Houston if McFadden becomes available or Detroit if the top 6 are gone and the only options are DT and CB (they could really use Sedrick Ellis).
Would I love to see D-Mac in green and white next season? Absolutely. I just don’t think this administration will pick a player this high in the draft that has off the field issues and isn’t exactly a need.
The problem with trading down is that the team trading up has to believe that the Jets would take McFadden and need to trade farther up! So, keep talking about taking McFadden and see what happens!
I see other positions as being a better number six than QB, so I pass on Ryan and select my number one CB, whoever the Jets think that is. For me it’s McKelvin.
ProFootballTalk.com is doing a team-by-team draft needs. First up is Miami. We’ll see in five more days what they think.
I’d rather reach for a CB than take Ryan or Ellis. I think both are overrated.
if gholston or long are not there for us i say we trade down or draft a corner where we are right now with #6
i really dont kno who would be better cromartie or mckelvin
if cromartie has the same luck as his cousin with tipped pass interceptions then i would pick him lol…its really a toss us between the two
as far as mcfadden goes….TJ and leon are a very dynamic pair and with the addition of chatham it gives us depth and honestly i would hate to pay mcfadden all this money which u kno it will be a ton…wen we have leon tj and chatham already there
some may say the same of olb that we are paying bt and pace loads of money wat do we need gholston or long for…. well its different because when u rotate fronts as much as the jets do i feel it more important to have an extra dynamic player like long or gholston at that postion….
if gholston and long are gone and mcfadden is there i would say we trade down……
i agree that if long or gholston are gone that we should either take the #1 cb in either mckelvin or drc or trade down;we could use some more picks and with those picks we could still fill a need position in either a speed wr or a de/olb like groves or crable…
QUICKLY PASS on Matt Ryan. He is over hyped and over rated. But someone will want him, so trade down quickly.
i think its pretty obvious that a rb’s production is a function of line and system. some of the greats have managed to be productive regardless (cmart for one), but its tough to assume.
mix in the typical lifespan of an nfl rb, and its tough to take one at 6. if their scouting believes mcfadden’s skills make him one of the exceptions, a no-brainer, and his skills will readily transfer and he will pick up blitzes (critical in the nfl), go ahead and make everyone in the felt forum happy.
but lets not kid ourselves, he would be a high risk pick. so is this really a team thats in a position to win (10ish) now or needs more building blocks? i’m not sure.
I love McDaddy but, Bassett has made some very good points. This draft is deep with quality RB’s. If we trade down and pick up some extra first day picks, there is still a good chance we end up with the best back to come out of this draft. As we need depth, this is probably the best move.
I find it very humorous when people compare DMC to Peterson. That comparison is a joke…guys like Peterson don’t come around often, and DMC isn’t really close when it comes to all around ability. Even off the field, there is no comparison.
I THINK WE SHOULD TRADE DOWN WITH DALLAS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET THERE 2 FIRST ROUND DRAFT PICKS AND MAYBE MORE FOR THEM TO MOVE UP. IF THAT HAPPENS WE NEED TO PICK UP W WR AND A CB. THEN IN THE SECOND ROUND WE NEED TO LOOK AT A QB!!!!!!
The reason you take McFadden is not that running backs need to be taken high to be productive- on the contrary, it’s the most fungible position on offense, and the one with the smallest difference between starters and reserves. The reason you take McFadden is because he will be the best player available. Period. So it’s counterproductive to get sucked into worrying about needing or not needing a running back, or needing a pass rusher or a linebacker or what have you. You need to come away from the number six pick in the draft with the best possible player. And McFadden is better than anyone in this draft not named Chris Long or Glenn Dorsey. If the Jets take Vernon Gholston over McFadden, it’s a serious error.
I agree with seanmac. I think Ryan, both Longs, Dorsey and Ellis will all be gone. If that the case, then DMc is a no-brainer. Comparing DMc to Peterson or any other back isn’t really productive. DMc has his strengths and weaknesses as an RB. He has a different style from Peterson and, if anything, is more elusive and less injury prone. Also, DMc is faster, played in a better college conference and had more yards. So, if you want to compare them, there’s no reason to believe that DMc won’t be as good, or better. And, if he isn’t as good, if he’s close, he’d still be the best back in the Jets’ backfield. No way the Jets should pass on DMc.
As for the Ryan haters, even if many of you believe he’s over-rated, apparently, the Jets FO, according to Adam Schein on SNY’s “Jets Nation”, is committed to drafting Brohm in the 2nd round, or maybe trading up to get him. If that’s the case, then the FO sees what I see, that KC is not the QB of the future and a change, or at least more competition, is a draft priority. But, if it comes down to Ryan or Gholston, then the Jets should take Ryan, then target DE/OLB in the second or trade up to get their guy, which should be Harvey.
With the 6th pick you do not select a corner of the McKelvin or Cromartie caliber. They may become good but it is too risky, and in my opinion riskier than having McFadden in New York City.
If MacFadden is available at 6 you get him. If not there will be several players worth the 6th pick and we should not exclude Derick Harvey who can be a great NFL player. He has the potential and anyway he will be a top 10 pick.
The stated FA strategy of the Front Office was to fill as many holes as possible so they can draft the best available player. If the FO believes DMC is the best player on the board at 6 they should take him. If someone makes an offer that provides additional opportunities to improve the team, I think they will happily take it. I like Derrick Harvey, too, Nikolas. Especially at a cheaper price than Gholston. There are always surprises on draft day but as long as the FO sticks to their strategy of taking whomever they have rated highest, I’l be satisfied.
SD99 — I saw that, but I think it was more Schein reaching for straws and trying to make up a story where there isn’t one. I seem to remember after ‘06 him guaranteeing that the Jets were going to get Michael Turner. And then, after the last game this year, he guaranteed that Faneca was headed to Arizona.
The name Schein should always come with an “*” — which is not an asterisk but a grain of salt.
Take the best player available.
Take the best player available.
Or trade down. Are we planning on making the Super Bowl this year? If not it doesn’t make sense picking for need unless there we have a glaring hole. I don’t believe we have a GLARING hole, thanks to this offseason. Even if we overload a position, it’s just insurance against a bust (which chance tells us that at least one offseason signing will be). Can’t have too many defensive linemen.
Take the best player available!
I think it’s really interesting how the media consensus sets up who are the potential picks for the top 10. it almost pigeonholes a team with a high draft choice to take one of those- because if they don’t the fans blast mgmt (at least until the season starts). I think last year, we, with our lower draft pick, didn’t know what to expect, so the front office had more flexibility. How do you think we’d all react if the Jets take someone who is slated to go in the mid-teens at #6? Right now, consensus is set that we’d only be happy if we get Gholston, DMC, or trade down. That seems to be a pretty narrow attitude. It is such a fine, subjective line that separates all these kids.
Mike-
I agree. Anyone can speculate about guys who have never played an NFL down. Which is why you hopefully employ a top notch evaluation staff and heed their analysis above the media’s. Like I said, I’ll be satisfied with whomever the FO pick’s as long it’s the best player on THEIR board.
More likely 2nd round pick should be a big receiver like James Hardy.
how about a top rated WIDE RECIEVER? we addressed the DEFENSE this offseason,how about getting an OFFENSIVE WEAPON…..MALCOM KELLY or LIMAS SWEED. this is all by TRADING DOWN of course….NOT the 6th pick overall.
Thanks Subwayfare- and fortunately, this FO has shown itself as fairly competent in the draft in recent years.
By most assessments the top 6 will leave us with the 6th best player based on what the media’s predictions are. I’ve seen mock drafts with NE picking a CB at 7, and if their CB is good enough at 7 why not at 6?
If Sedrick Ellis is there at 6th certainly he is the 6th best player.
I don’t know. I think management is doing a good job and other than Ferguson, who some people have already, and I think erroneously, labeled a bust, they have picked well (Schlegel being a real reach but one pick of the lot is not getting a lot of minutes which is pretty good to me).
Whoever it is, if we do draft at 6, they will be getting money as a 6 will so it makes no difference if it’s a RB, QB, DE, LB, CB as long as it isn’t a kicker.
I would take a 1st this year and one next year plus something else if that was an available trade option or perhaps Denver wants our spot and D Rob will be part of the condition of getting it?
So much to speculate. I will be happy with the outcome but much like most of you I would rather have 2 more players in the top 50 or 60 to potentially fill spots than one at 6.
i beleive in drafting bpa, but i also think that we as fans and the front office both need to look at the draft from a macro level rather than just on a pick by pick basis. for example, i think it would be much better to have mcfadden/gholston and brohm in first two picks than ryan and the fourth or fifth rb or olb/de off the board. looking back to the 2006 draft, we could have had leinart or cutler and marcus macneil instead of d’brick and clemens with such a macro approach.
Please FO, do not draft V. Gholston. He is a workout maniac who prepped for the combine and played in a very weak conference. If McDaddy is not our pick, I hope we trade down and draft a CB and a WR. Also, a QB with a arm and smarts would be nice.
Ian, 20 – 20 hindsight is perfect.
Reread the pre draft comments on McNeil. He was great and a better value than Brick. But everyone agreed Brick would be great and there were concerns that McNeil’s medical status might prevent him from both playing or lasting.
Also, most folks would say your hindsight is premature. Drafts are best evaluated after three or four years, not two. Who knows how the other QBs will fare this year, how Kellen may respond to a better OL and D, and whether this will be the year McNeil goes down for the count.
Patience my wise friend. Then, tell us you knew it all along :-)
harlan
McFadden will probably be gone by #6.
if he lasts to #4 the raiders will take him. Regardless of Fargas.
But I see someone leapfrogging to #3 and taking him. it would be in Atlanta’s best interest to move back in the draft and if the right offer (Dallas) comes along I see them moving.
Lets say he is gone and Gholston goes to Oakland. That leaves us with Ryan and I agree with this scenario the JETS trade out of #6. But with whom? I think in this scenario that the PATs will be doing the same thing blocking the JETs. Someone will want to move ahead of the Ravens at 8. Why pay for #6 when you can get #7 for less? Does anyone really think the JETS draft Ryan at 6?
That has as much as a chance of happening as the JETS trading their 6th and 36th pick to move up to #3 take McFadden.
I think Clemens/Brick rather than Cutler or Leinart and McNeil actually does show a macro approach. For one thing, it was much more sensible cap-wise than committing a bunch more money to a position where Chad already had a big contract. And what good would drafting McNeil have been if he was almost ready to retire by the time the rebuilding process was complete (a realistic possibility based on data at the time).
McNeil is a good run blocker but Ferguson is better in pass protection, which was the principal need for the Jets at that time. McNeil did had the advantage of joining a team with a strong offensive line and the league’s best running back, which meant that pass rushers were unable to rear back and commit to the blitz. When they did (Jared Allen), he was regularly torched and actually regressed in that area last year, despite the pro bowl nod.
So, yes, we could have had Cutler/McNeil, but – as Harlan notes – that may yet not prove to be the best possible outcome anyway.
I guess everyone knows that Cutler really hasn’t done anything in the NFL, yet. Plus, the Jets probably would have picked Leinart, who most draft pundits considered to be the better QB, had a higher FO ranking, a higher Wonderlic, and a much better collegiate resume. Plus, the Jets had Chad, who could not be cut because of the cap hit. So, the FO did the prudent thing: rebuild the OL and try to get the “QB of the future” in the 2nd round. Unfortunately, KC has been underwhelming. But, if KC ends up being the second-coming of Drew Brees, then the FO’s decisions in 2006 would have to be considered brilliant.
This draft has a very deep RB class and solid RBs can and will be found by a number of teams in the later rounds but the Jets already solid RBs. I honestly feel that McFadden is the only RB that the Jets would draft because of his big play and home run ability. I can also see them taking a chance on Chris Johnson if the value at where they drafted him was too great to pass up but I highly doubt that he will fall into a position like that where the Jets could pick him. Thomas Jones is a solid RB and will be for the next 2 seasons but McFadden would add a dimension to the offense which is definitely not present at this time. TDs win games in the NFL and I don’t know about everyone else but I am sick and tired of seeing the Jets have to drive 80 yards and still settle for a FG once every 6 possessions and then we lose by less than 7