With the Sixth Pick: Vernon Gholston Edition
We are running a series of posts on the topic of who you think the Jets should pick with their slated sixth pick in the draft.
Now clearly some players don’t figure to be there at the sixth pick but just like Mangini, Tannenbaum & Clinkscales have to prepare for all outcomes … so should we.
So how does this work? The process is simple, we are going to take it one player at a time (no jumping ahead!!) 1-10 off our Mock Draft Muncher and talk about the benefits or drawbacks to drafting that particular player, and what it would mean to the Jets in both the short and long-term.
Today, Ohio State DE/OLB Vernon Gholston.
47 Responses to With the Sixth Pick: Vernon Gholston Edition
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seanmac – good reply. Gholston *might* be good at the next level – but moght not. He’s got all of the numbers to back it up – 14 sacks, combine stats, etc – but so many people seem to be saying what you are – it somehow doesn’t really add up to make him a lock at the next level. He wasn’t even the bext player on Ohio’s defense (James Laurinitis was original LB at #6 in many mocks before he decided to go back to school for senior year).
I think the hype will hang around long enough for him to go #2 or #4. May big concern is that him and McFadden will both be gone (as well as the two Longs) and neither DT (Dorsey, Ellis) translate to a 3-4 defense. Then what? Trade down, of course, but doubt they will have the chance… -
18andOne says:
seanmac you make it sound like he was some backup LB who played 10% of the snaps. Gholston may not be the next LT like the media is making him out to be, but he was a heck of a college player. The guy tied the Ohio State record for sacks in a season last year. That’s Ohio State, not Suffolk Community College. Ohio State might have been able to beat the Jets last year. Certainly, there is no guarentee he’ll be the best pass rusher, but I doubt he’ll be a complete bust either.
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SackDance99 says:
I agree 100% with seanmac. I like Harvey more, he’s heavier, yet his speed is not that much worse than Gholston’s and he was the more violent player in college. Merriman earned the nickname “Lights Out” in college from his violent hitting and his high school football coach wouldn’t let him practice with the team because he’d hurt too many of his fellow players. That combination of athleticism and pure violence is something that the film just doesn’t show with Gholston. Also, Merriman was Gholston’s size as a freshman (but lighter and faster), but bulked up (maybe with chemical assistance) to 270+ lbs. He lost some 40 speed, but he enhanced his draft positioning because he was the prototype DE/OLB hybrid. What happens if VG bulks up 10 lbs.? What happens to his edge rushing (which is his only pass rush skill)? I hope the Jets pass on VG because he is not BPA at his own position.
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Bent says: To be fair to Gholston, there’s more to him than just edge rushing. He uses his strength well and has some inside power moves.
I don’t think he’ll be a bust either, but I think his impact won’t come right away. As much as the combine numbers help him, they also show that Long and Harvey may be more fluid and therefore better suited to the OLB role in a 3-4.
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JustAGreenGuy says:
Who do you guys think would be a good DE prospect in the 3-4? I think this area should be addressed. (Of course not with the 6th pick) I love Chris Long, but minus a miracle he will not be there at 6. Sorry for off topic.
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seanmac says:
No, the problem was that Gholston played all the time and impacted on 10% of the snaps. (Okay, he did better than that, but still, he did not have top five production, which is what you should demand from a player who is likely to go in the top five or six picks.) It’s all good and well that he broke the sack record at Ohio State, but he got his sacks in bunches, in a few select games, not through consistent production. That’s why he is such an inferior prospect to Chris Long. Long is no edge rushing terror, but he contributes against the run and the pass on almost every snap- you couldn’t watch a UVA game and not see Long impacting the play. Gholston was invisible against Illinois, he was largely invisible against LSU, and he spent too much time like that for me to be comfortable with the idea that he’s going to be a dominant NFL player.
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Rocky says:
Although I see where you guys are coming from, I think Gholston’s upside looks way too good, yes he is questionable but he has all the physical tools (ran a 4.5 40, did the MOST bench press reps in the Combine) to be great. HE was the big 10 defensive player of the year and is a physical speicmen, it would be easy to coach this guy into becoming a great pass rusher, and I think a LB corp of Harris, Pace, and Gholston would put a lot of fear in some AFC QB’s especially Tom Brady…Idk, I would like McFadden more than anyone but getting Gholston would be a pretty silver metal for the Jets.
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Bent, I think I’ve seen all of his sacks, and I did not see one bull rush, swim, club, etc. If there’s a link around showing his other moves, I’d like to see it because all that I’ve seen is his edge rushing. If he shot the inside gap and got through, that doesn’t do it for me either. I want to see him engage and throw aside the OT or push the OT back into the QB…that’s what I want to see from a no. 6 pick. Motor and violence. From what I’ve seen is an inconsistent motor and mediocre tackling skills. No “Lights Out” hits.
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Steve says:
I agree with pretty much everything that has been posted, but I will say this in the defense of a possible Gholston selection …In the Michigan Ohio State games he absolutely dominated the entire Michigan line including Jake Long
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Off topic, I wonder which Combine skill most translates into NFL success? Also, I wonder whether anyone has does this on a per-position basis. For instance, I think VG beats out Merriman in all the Combine skills. But, if you watched film on Merriman, you saw his impact. I just don’t see anything similar from Gholston. Dorsey? Yes. C. Long? Yes.
Here’s another link on Gholston…he couldn’t run down the QB…poor pursuit angle and he couldn’t close the gap on a slower runner:
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Bent says:
Actually, he only beat Long once as he lined up on the other side most of the time. Long had him shut down until he got him near the end. However, if he beats every left tackle he ever faces once a game for a sack, he’d be a hall of famer! Overall, yes he was absolutely dominant, but, as noted by seanmac he disappeared in a few other games.
The game certainly didn’t do too much for the future draft prospects of Steve Schilling!
Sack, I don’t really watch highlight videos, but was impressed by how he varied up his pass rush approach in the UM game, since I had viewed him as mostly a speed rusher like you based on what I had seen of him to that point. Referring to my notes, in that game he did get to the QB with an inside swim move and forced the ball to be thrown away and also fought off a block to make a stop against the run. I guess he didn’t get to the QB with the other moves he was using, but at least he was using them, which I would assume helps to set up the speed rush where he does his damage, by getting the QB’s weight shifted inside or getting him too upright in anticipation of a bullrushing move.
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Bent says:
I believe VG’s short shuttle time was slower than Chris Long’s, which I would suggest might indicate how fast a guy can burst after shedding a block and how quickly they could turn around in coverage. Does that make sense?
Like you say, it must vary position by position. 40 time is probably important for corners. Short shuttle is important for possession receivers, but not out-and-out deep threats. Surprisingly, broad jump and long jump are important for linemen, because it suggests how explosive they are at the snap.
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DSmizzle says:
Um…. SackDance99, in that video you linked, Ghoulston is being held by one lineman (who he beats), and then another guy steps in to assist with a double-team. VG beat both, forcing the QB to take off on a scramble.
Not sure where you are coming from by trying to criticize him on that play. Took out 2 blockers and still pressured the QB. Was OSU playing with 9 guys on the field or something?
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My Pet Goat says:
I know its hyperbole when people say Generic University could have whipped Sad Sack NFL Franchise du jour, but it still gets under my skin. Anyway, I disagree with seanmac about Gholston’s elevated stock coming from his combine performance. He pretty much hit the mocks in the top ten once he declared. The combine just confirmed what the eyes assumed, mainly that he’s a physical monster. That performance cemented him as a top ten, possible top five player. Now, you can debate whether his status as an edge player has further inflated his value, but we’re not talking about Mike Mamula. Gholston was the signature defensive play-maker for an elite college program. I fear I’m straying into anecdotal assumption masquerading as analysis, but nevertheless, the level of strength and athleticism required of any NFL player is absurdly high but still results in a generally grouping of players with similar skill-sets and physicality at each position. There are outliers to these groups both above and below the general shape, size, and speed of the general population (of position-specific NFL players). When you can find a player that has displayed both on-field production (you can site inconsistence, but still have to acknowledge the bursts of dominance) and physical superiority (to a population of already physically superior athletes) then you have a player that can provide match-up asymmetry (which is the name of the game in the NFL, right?). Now it’s the duty of an NFL franchise to do their due diligence in determining whether a player is too stiff in the hips or possibly uses PEDs (but let’s be honest about the level of hand wringing Meriman’s suspension caused in San Diego. Wouldn’t the current Jets administration trip over themselves to get a player like Meriman or his teammate Luis Castillo?). So maybe they like him or maybe they don’t and we’re really just burning a bunch of bandwidth with idle speculation, but I think Gholston (along with McFadden) is too intriguing to pass.
Another angle to look at, and this might send a mess of folk into a tizzy. If the Jets passed on Gholston he most likely becomes a Patriot. If there’s something the Patriots truly need (outside of… oh, say… a CB, maybe?) its to plug some fresh legs into their LB corps. Speaking of match-up asymmetry, can you imagine the bi-annual week of dread and anxiety that D’Brick will have to go through worrying about his physical inability to block either Gholston or Adalius? The first focus of the draft should be on value, then need… But picking directly in front of your rival, a team that employs the same defensive system, a team that has imposed a half-decade of misery on your already miserable franchise… shouldn’t that play a role in your thinking. If you’re at #6 and Gholston is what’s left of the Longs, McFadden, Dorsey, etc… someone would have to offer a pretty impressive trade to keep you from taking the Buckeye in that spot. Passing on him there is a mistake that could haunt you at least twice a year for five years or more.
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How are we not talking about Mike Mamula? Mamula had 17 sacks his senior season while playing in a major college conference. Mike Mamula is exactly who we are talking about. (And in fairness, Mamula wasn’t a bust- he just was a disappointment based on how people thought he would perform.)
And if the Patriots draft Gholston, I’ll breathe a sigh of relief that they didn’t take Derrick Harvey, or worse, that they didn’t trade down to generate more picks.
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Comparisons are fun but unfair. A somewhat similar (though not too close in reality) played who didn’t live up to heightened expectations does not mean Ghoulston will suck, be average, or be great.
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Vbsiena24 says:
Ok first you don’t draft to prevent players from going to other teams. That’s BS if anyone feels that should be a reason to draft anyone.
#2 I agree Seanmac about “When you’re drafting a guy at six, you have to feel reasonably confident that he’s better than the players who will be taken after him at the same position” That’s why I don’t like McFadden, I don’t think will be better than some of the other RBs.
Derrick Harvey looks good too, but Gholston is beastly and was meant to play the 3-4 OLB moreso than the 4-3 DE position. I think flat out Gholston is the second best Hybrid LB in this draft. #1 Being Chris Long, yes would be a better fit there than a DE.
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Goat,
I would also add that Gholston has benefited from a self-reinforcing cycle. When he declared, he started going up the draft boards in no small part because people were saying, “Just wait until you see this guy at the combine- he’s really going to rip it up.” Then he went to the combine and ripped it up.
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niko1677 says:
MyPetGoat, I can’t even begin to tell you how many times your exact point has been made in the past month on this site and it is just wrong. I guess it has come up alot because of the draft order but there is no guarantee nor is there a correlation between player A joining team A and having the same impact if he were to join team B. Coaching and defensive scheme has everything to do with a players development and impact at the NFL level where athletic ability will only get you so far. Case in point, Steve Young and Favre were 2 marginal QBs before they were placed in the right system on the right team.
But if we were to continue under the assumption that what you are saying is true, shouldn’t we draft Gholston and Mcfadden if they are available then because theoretically they could both hurt us for the next decade if the Pats drafted them.
The draft process is tough enough without having to worry about who you’re allowing your competitors to take. The Jets will draft whoever they deem to be the best player that suits their needs, if that’s Gholston fine, if not…
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Yup. Gholston was expected to have a great combine. Scouts and draft experts knew that way before the combine. This value really shouldn’t have gone up much after the combine because of it.
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dSmizzle…beauty is in the eye of the beholder…point is, he didn’t finish the play when he was 1 on 1 and I expect absolute dominance at the collegiate level. I saw that and asked myself, would Merriman or LT have made that play? Yes, heck, Mike Mamula might’ve made that play in college. VG just was not that dominant a college player.
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A DE that I like is Phillip Merling of Clemson. I believe that he is a true DE, not a hybrid DE/OLB. Not at 6, but we could trade down to nab him.
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niko, Favre went through Falcons training camp his rookie season and started his second pro season with the Pack, and never looked back. He was pretty good right off the bat and he’s one of the examples that I cite to answer the “it takes a QB 3 years” argument. Favre, Marino, Peyton, Brady, Big Ben, etc., were all pretty good more or less from day 1 as a starter.
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Let’s not put all those fish in the same boat. Brady put up a DVOA of -0.4% in 2001, which is to say he was almost entirely average; he won his first Super Bowl being significantly worse than Chad was in 2006, for instance (but of course Eli won his first Super Bowl being worse than Chad in 2007). We don’t have numbers for guys before 2000- I have no doubt that Marino’s were mind boggling, Favre’s were eh and Peyton’s were below average. Roethlisberger was terrific, but he’s a Dan Marino-sized anomaly.
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…But SD 99, there are plenty of others who took some time, like Eli and Chad himself who sat for two years. And even Elway took some time.
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No. The Patriots at #7 should be a factor. (And for niko1667: you may have noticed a similarity in philosophical styles between the Patriots and the Jets.) The teams you compete against factor in every other decision a football team makes, so why not the draft. If it was the Chiefs picking behind the Jets then this wouldn’t be an issue, but this is a team that provides a clear obstacle to the Jets playoff viability. Unless you’re discussing a player that would provide a clear redundancy on your roster, then the chess game must be a part of your roster decisions. This isn’t paranoia, this is an arms race. He’s a hybrid defender that can fill a need on either roster, and let’s be honest if Gholston is still available names like Long and McFadden will be gone by picks 6 & 7. I’m ultimately in the trade down camp, but is Gholston going to make teams bid for #6?
It seems clear that there’s a consensus discomfort with the having the #6 pick in the draft. According to many opinions on this board, the only guys worth taking at #6 are top five talents which if I run the numbers… might leave someone without a chair.
Beyond that, am I to understand that Gholston should be penalized for having lived up to combine expectations? The workout wonders that run up the board and surprise people tend to be… surprises. People could tell that Gholston was a physical beast and that bumped him up the mocks. He shows up at the combine and confirms what people assumed. Because he performed to expectations he went from the back end of the top ten to the the fringe of the top five. If there’s a problem in any of this progression, why is there a combine? (Mamula, mamula, mamula… I hate to keep beating this one, but how excited were people about Mamula before the combine?)
Sorry, I’m at work and having a hard time making sure I’m covering all of my arguments. Just want to make sure I hit the highlights… Draft picks are not sacrosanct vessels of football purity. The best possible decision for a team can and should take into consideration that team’s competition. And Gholston shouldn’t be dismissed because he performed, as expected, well at the combine. It seems ignorant to think that every one that excels in that venue is actually deeply flawed in some way. (This one’s for SackDance…) That’s like saying all QB’s who stand 6’5″ should be dismissed because of Ryan Leaf.
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Gholston shouldn’t be docked, but he shouldn’t have his stock go up, either.
As for the Pats, they’ve made their MO very clear over the past five years and it’s this- if there are five players with similar grades, they don’t want to take the first one, they want to trade down and take the last one. If we take Vernon Gholston to keep him from the Patriots, they’ll trade down a few spots or simply sit tight and take Derrick Harvey and laugh at the fact that we’re paying more money for the same caliber of prospect. I promise you that the Pats don’t care if we take Gholston or not.
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My Pet Goat:
I get the impression from your posts that you were upset when Dennis Miller got kicked off of Monday Night Football?
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James in TN says:
18andOne, Ohio Steate can beat only one mildly good team and that is Michigan, and they got beat by Appy State. Watch the SEC if you want to see real football. Also, the Jets would have beat the buckeyes by 30.
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Just because 2 teams play a 3-4 doesn’t mean that they utlize identical schemes and thus have identical player needs. As we have seen, Mangini prefers a man coverage scheme with his CBs while Pats primarily use zone schemes in their secondary. These are 2 very different skill sets for one position in the same “type” of defense. MyPetGoat, what I’m really saying is this, it is very difficult to draft a player that will not only fit our team needs but also deprive the Pat of the player they wanted to draft. And simply because a player would fit in our 3-4 alignment does not mean that the Pats should/would want him also.
SD, my point with Favre was that if he had stayed in Atlanta with a coach that wanted no part of him (Jerry Glanville) he likely would not have been the player he is. -
Come on, isn’t it obvious that if the Jets draft this guy he’ll become the next Mamula and if the Pats do, he’ll be better than Merriman and LT combined?
This is the mind of a jaded Jets fan, although some of the recent drafts dating back to Parcells’ arrival have been good.
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Wasn’t really a fan of Herm Edwards drafts. Bryan Thomas instead of Ed Reed when Safety was a need? C’mon! Trading up 2 1st rounders for Dewayne Robertson wasn’t smart either in hindsight.
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MPG, I’ve gotten on VG’s case as being a workout warrior, but I think I have been more consistent in saying that he just does not dominate on the field. Chris Long is nowhere near as physically gifted as Gholston, but Long has a relentless motor and plays to the whistle every single down. If VG had the numbers and the type of every-down impact of Long, then I’d be all for drafting him, but then he’d be the no. 1 pick. He may not be as good as Harvey and may not be better than BT, Bowens or Marques Murrell. Or, he could end up being a force in the NFL, but I just don’t think anyone teaches guys like Long or Dorsey to play to the whistle, that’s just innate. What I didn’t like about the youtube clip I posted is that I am convinced VG could have made that play, the question is why he didn’t or, at least, look better not doing it? Gholston is neither BPA nor a pure need pick, so I’d pass.
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seanmac, I’m not sure that you would’ve like Marino’s first 9 starts. He only completed 58.4% of his passes, but he did have 20 TDs to 9 INTs and was only sacked 10 times in nearly 300 attempts. He followed that up with one of the best seasons ever in his 2nd year and, probably, the best 2nd year of any NFL QB in history: 64.2 completion pct. to go with over 5,000 yards passing and 48 TDs to 17 INTs. And, he was only sacked 13 times in nearly 600 attempts. Ironically, he completed under 60% of his passes for his career, so he sucked by seanmac/FO standards.
Chad sat for 2 years before he started; KC sat for 1 1/2 seasons. I find it hard to believe that holding a clipboard for the whole season and, then, being named the starter for this year would’ve improved KC’s stats, but we shall see.
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seanmac, you consint my beliefs.I myself think that Groves is as good as gholston. The name groves sound a little more menacing.would rather get him later cause that his projection.look at Willis And Harris.Same player but one at a better value.Prob is,the only way to get value is to pick later & cross your fingers.McFadden will not be a jet in any senario. my heart of hearts tell me that come draft day the raiders are going to either going to take Gholston or trade the pick.if DMC falls to us well trade the pick. we just might take him in spite of J.Jones then make him trade.yeah my senario did have him going to us in spite.shoot me.
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Well let’s talk BPA for a second. In my mind, the cupboard is going to be pretty bare by the time #6 roles around. We’re talking about players and motors, but it’s clear that in a draft-slot value estimation there doesn’t seem to be a player worth 6th pick money once the top players are gone. Unless Ryan is the apple of the Falcons’ collective eye, my guess and it seems to be close to a consensus around here that both Longs will be gone, as will Dorsey, as will McFadden, and Ellis whenever he goes will not be a fit with the Jets. So then you have to look at BPA. It would seem that in a draft with a consensus top-five the #6 is out of the money in terms of landing the talent or the trade. If Gholston grades out similarly to the other top-end edge-rushers then this is moot as who’s going to jump at the chance to overpay him and give up a 2nd first day pick? Now its clear that SackDance wants Ryan at #6 over VG if they are both available. But if you’re not a Ryan guy, and there seem to be many of us in that camp, and the pick becomes untradeable (why trade up to the 6 when you can trade up to the 7 and save a few million dollars) then I don’t see how you don’t take Gholston. Let’s see if we can come up with a list of players the Jets can take that rate as good values at the six. This’ll be a difficult exercise. We’d best hope that something unusual transpires at the top and something falls to six that lets the Jet’s trade out, otherwise take Gholston and hope that monster translates.
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What sackdance is also saying is that if Vernon Gholston is on the board, he would rather take Derrick Harvey, a player who plays the exact same position. As it happens, so would I. So why should we take Gholston and “hope that monster translates?” There is someone else available who has already translated as well if not better.
In terms of players who I would consider to be at least as appealing as Gholston, I would throw in Harvey, Mendenhall, Brohm, Rivers and Ellis. The worst possible scenario would be to have to take the first player out of that group instead of the last or second-to-last, because you’re paying more money and losing draft picks to no good effect.
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junior says:
IN COLLEGE HE WAS VERY GOOD WAS HE GREAT NO!! At the next level it will be more of
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in the nfl it wll be a case of LOOKS LIKE TARZAN PLAYS LIKE JANE REACTION in his first year just like mario williams but now look who is on his way to being the man and Reggie Bush is looking like someone who cant carry a full nfl workload
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Good Lord, Pat Kirwin not only has us taking Gholston, he has us trading up for the privilege. Where can I sign up to shoot myself?
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Russ Lande:
Ohio State defensive end/rush linebacker Vernon Gholston has received a ton of press for his great spring, but Auburn’s Quentin Groves has very similar physical traits and is viewed as a better prospect by many. Groves did not disappoint at his pro day. He worked out very well and showed the necessary explosiveness to play end in a 4-3 defense and the athletic package to play as a rush linebacker in a 3-4. He is nearly as big as Gholston, and during the workout at Auburn he showed better flexibility and agility than many believe Gholston has. The big issue with Groves is whether he has the necessary instincts/smarts to play off the ball as a full-time linebacker in the NFL or must be used predominately as a pass rusher. . . .
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Rasmusbach says:
seanmac, you’ve expressed my worst nightmare allthough i have the jets picking between the two DTs and NE trading down.
SD99, best combine skill = passing your medical
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Lol, so seanmac what you’re saying is Groves is just as raw if not more raw than Gholston. That’s what I’m reading.
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greentrack says:
In response to sackdance99; even if you did actually see every one of Gholston’s sacks (which I find hard to believe), he can have a positive impact in other ways ie a disruptive force that makes things hard for the offense. Also, heres a clip of him basically using a “bull rush” against Jake Long (who’s a really good tackle btw) and pushing past him
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yot9ClPvZDg&NR=1 -
I wasn’t saying anything there- I was just posting a scout’s thoughts on Gholston and Groves. If you’re asking, what I’m saying is that there aren’t any pass rushers who are worth the #6 pick and that there is very little to choose from between the top group, so that the team that picks the last one has done a much better job than the team that picks the first one. And in most scenarios, we’re the team that picks the first one.
green,
So long as we’re going on the basis of highlight clips, I suspect a terrific argument can be made for drafting every single one of the top 100 players #1 overall. Everyone looks fabulous when you’re just showing their highlights. Go catch the national championship game instead and spend your time watching Gholston and nothing but. Or watch Derrick Harvey basically do nothing against Michigan all game. Or on down the line. None of these guys are top five caliber players.
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Groves over Gholston because he plays in the SEC not the little 10. Hopefully Walsh talks before April and the Patriots lose the #7 as well!!! I love watching the patriots squirm!!!!
I’m resigned to the possibility, but I’m really not excited about a Gholston pick. Two positions are responsible for a high proportion of early first-round busts- quarterback and defensive end. The reason is simply enough- those positions are in such demand that guys routinely get pushed up the draft boards because they play them and end up getting drafted at spots all out of keeping with their actual production. I’ve thought for some time that Gholston should be a late first/early second round pick based on his actual production. (Watching him do absolutely nothing in the replay of OSU-Illinois this weekend did nothing to change my mind on that score.) He’s only going top five because he has elite workout numbers and because there are multiple teams drafting high that play a 3-4 and therefore have a need. (I also have a hard time believing he’s not going to get hit with a Shawn Merriman-style steroids suspension, but let’s put that aside for the moment.) When you’re drafting a guy at six, you have to feel reasonably confident that he’s better than the players who will be taken after him at the same position. It doesn’t usually work out that way, but you need to give yourself the best chance of it. I think it’s a good bet, for instance, that Glenn Dorsey is better than any DT taken after him in the draft. As good as the running back class is, I expect McFadden to be among the best if not the best back. I would put the odds of Gholston being a better 3-4 OLB than Derrick Harvey at under 50%, and the odds of him being better than the rest of the class of pass rushers down around zero. He simply didn’t show that kind of football ability in college. Now it’s true that he hasn’t played the game that long, that he’s raw and that therefore he may well improve…but that’s not something you risk the #6 pick in the draft on. Like I said, I’m resigned to the pick if he’s on the board, but I’m really, really hoping he’s not on the board.