Jets to Meet With McFadden Yet Again Today
Posted on March 25th, 2008 by Bassett
Our boy Gary over at JetsCentral notes that the Jets are going to be meeting with top running back prospect Darren McFadden today after his workout at Arkansas.
I am in the camp that I think the Raiders will take McFadden at #4. That said, I do think the Jets are getting as much information on the player and his true personality as possible. I do think that it’s a smokescreen in some regard to increase the urgency for teams drafting behind the Jets should they want the feature player for themselves and he sits there at #6. The Jets could well take him, and see what offers are made to them, a la Eli Manning and the Chargers a few years ago.
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I would be estatic if McFadden fell to the Jets at #6 and some team traded up with them because they really thought the Jets might take him at #6 because all the interest they have been showing. Instead of trying to trade with the Pats #7. If that is the case this “smokescreen” would pay dividends.
Like Vbsiena says, it’s a smart investment — other than airfare and staff time, what does it cost to keep meeting with him? The payoff is either they draft themselves a player they’ve fully checked and feel can be a big contributer, or they’ve increased the value for the 6th pick.
Maybe the Rams want to trade down to select Vernon Gholston–why not do so with the Jets?
well whatever the jets FO decides to do if dmc is there at 6 i’ll be in favor of it…even though everybody knows i want a deffensive player but im not against making the offense better than last year…just my thoughts…
Keep in mind the draft rules changed this year and the first round is only ten minutes between pick. That leaves less time to field offers from teams interested in trading up and then negotiating the terms. One result of this could be teams actually selecting the players and then fielding offers for a trade.
One thing I’m sick of with the Darren McFadden stuff is the pseudo-smart guy analyses where the hottest prospect in the draft has to be overrated and everyone has to know so much more than conventional wisdom and nearly unanimous consensus.
Just because everyone else thinks he is the best prospect and a near can’t-miss, doesn’t mean you have to be cool and counterintuitive. What are we, in 8th grade and you don’t want to tell everyone you like Green Day because you don’t want to be “a follower”?
Come on ladies, jump on board and join the winning team! By the way, I’ve just jinxed McFadden if the Jets do pick him up!
DSmizzle I don’t really understand your post. I for one am strongly against McFadden to the Jets. Personally I see bust written all over him. I don’t have faith that he can take hits and will go down immediately if he gets hit in the legs. He is fair from a ‘can’t miss’ prospect. See Gallery, Robert
Anyway the best ‘can’t miss’ prospect is Chris Long. He is said to have the highest floor than anyone else.
Boy,I have a hard time believing in a can’t-miss pass rusher..if I had to anoint a can’t miss player it would be Chris’s brother from another mother, Jake.
Vb, I respect that when it is an honest opinion, but there is a certain amount of smugness among us hard-core football fans that makes us knee-jerk against the prevailing wisdom about players, instead pumping up other prospects who aren’t ranked as highly and saying we think they’re definitely going to be better than the consensus guys.
I’m not saying it isn’t often true or legitimate… I just think sometimes if Quentin Groves was being considered for #1 and Ghoulston was projected in the later rounds, people would be knocking Groves and saying there’s a guy out there, Ghoulston, who is probably going to be the best player at DE/OLB.
I think whoever drafts Brian Brohm is going to get one heck of a QB. And, if he gets taken in the 2nd round it will be the steal of the century. He ran a 4.61 at his pro day, scored a 32 on the Wonderlic, and was 308 for 473 (65.1%) for 4024 yds. 30 tds – 12 int. for a 152.43 rating his senior year. He did that with a new head coach. If he plays like that in the NFL he will be a great QB. If he is there at 36 we should seriously consider him.
DSmizzle, I agree one hundred percent, but this is the business in the nfl. they have to put up smoke screens to protect their draft status and give other teams no idea what they are going to do. maybe they love sedrick ellis and don’t want teams to trade up for him so they will not profess how much they like him ( and green day is one of the greatest bands ever.
Vbsiena 24:
Sorry, but I don’t fully understand what you are saying. The comparison to Robert Gallery doesn’t make any sense. I agree with you that there are plenty of high round pick busts. But Vernon Gholston fits the mold much more than McFadden. Did you even know you Gholston was before the mock drafts came out?? I absolutely had NO CLUE who he was. His stock soared after the combine and pro day workout. McFadden has been doing it for two years straight. He might be a bust. And his skinny legs might come back to haunt him like you said….but Gholston has a much bigger risk. He can’t cover in the 3-4, and his only assest is getting after the QB. If he has trouble rushing the passser, then what else does he bring to the table??
RAMBLE 914
ABSOLUTELY ABSOLUTELY AND ABSOLUTELY. HOW COULD BRIAN BROHM BE CONSIDERED A SECOND ROUNDER. HE WILL BE THE BEST QB IN THIS CLASS . I HOPE THE JETS GET HIM
Unlike Adrian Peterson (who is also 6-2), DMc was never injured on the field during his 3 seasons competing in the SEC. Eric D**kerson’s skinny legs led him to the Hall of Fame, despite being 6-3. Running backs get injured, but there is no foundation for the belief that DMc will be injury-prone. I’m more worried about his fumbles, pass-catching and I think he has to bulk up to a solid 220 lbs, without losing his blazing speed. The Jets should do their due diligence on DMc to convince themselves that his off-field conduct won’t keep him from performing on-field. IMO, that’s the bigger issue; not injuries.
I think they are planning to trade down. I have been saying it for weeks. Trade down, trade down, trade down. I wouldn’t be opposed to Brian Brohm in the lower half of the first round either.
SACK DANCE 99:
What is your opinion of the following two player:
Gholston and sedrick ellis
our d-line is average. even after getting jenkings. don’t you think ellis would be a good player to put at tackle and at end in the 3-4. what are your thoughts.
This must mean the JETS are trading up with Atlanta.
This years first and next years 3rd should do the trick. After Vilma plays all year and we swap next years 4th for the Saints 3rd.
Sack- Peterson hurt himself being an idiot. Not because he was fragile.
SD99: I’m more concerned with him not making it through holes because of the initial hit that all RBs get. I don’t see him breaking many in the NFL. Injuries are not as a big concern to me regarding McFadden. All Day(Peterson) on the other hand showed he can take that hit and keep going. That’s really my beef with McFadden.
Almoriz: My Robert Gallery comparision has to do with that even the so called ’safest’ players can be busts. Gallery was pegged safety pick at the beginning of that draft and look how that turned out.
One more thing Almoriz: I knew about Gholston way before the season ended. I consider myself a draftnik being I love the NFL draft and wanted Chris Long then Vernon Gholston to the Jets in the 2008 draft probably during week 7 or 8 last season.
Walterfootball.com
96debacle,
I don’t think next years 3rd pick will do it. According to the draft value chart, which all teams use to determine trade value, moving from 6 to 3 is worth 600 points. The 33 pick (first of 2nd round) is worth 580 points. I would hope the that the Jets would not have that pick because it would mean that they were 2-14, so if it is a middle 2nd round, it is worth around 400 pts. The Jets would have to offer a 2 and 3 round pick to Atlanta to move up to 3, a steep price.
Vbsiena24:
I see your point. But it takes guys a few years before they can take those hits. He can bang…look at the LSU game please!!! But don’t you think Gholston is a bigger bust?? To me, he defines bust: workout warrior, with nots o great insstincts.
JAGG, but Peterson was an on-field idiot, not off-field, like DMc’s only injury. And, Peterson did get hurt his rookie season, but injuries are an occupational hazard for RBs.
Almoriz, Ellis is too short for the Jets DL and I don’t think Gholston is good value at no. 6 because Harvey, Campbell or Groves could all be as good, if not better. I rank my favorites as: Chris Long, Matt Ryan or DMc and I flip flop daily over DMc or Ryan, but I’m warming to the idea of DMc and then Brohm.
With Pace at one OLB position (but I’m not sure which one…he played the strong or left side last season) and BT back on the right side or weak side, with Bowens coming in on obvious passing downs, the Jets pass rush could be fine. I’m more concerned with the ILB position next to Harris, because I don’t think Barton played well last year. But, I really haven’t heard of any ILB that is on the Jets’ radar.
SACK DANCE 99
do some homework on dan conner. i have been reading up on him. he is athletic, smart, and can shed blockers. a very sound tackler. i would love him next to harris over the next 5 years. i agree. barton is past his prime. conner isn’t fast and that is why he is slipping out of the first round, but this is ok in our system. we need more instincts and smarts than speed. matt ryan is too much of a question mark for me.
i see your point about sedrick ellis.
Sack he did a flip. Maurice Jones Drew does them weekly, if not daily. (who knows how he celebrates the lil things). Peterson doesn’t have three babies mamas either. We can argue the semantics of this for months, but there is no way we can tell how good he will be till he hits the field.
As a D guy I want an ILB too. I want them to trade out of pick six. Up is fine if it is for Chris Long, but down is better.
Don’t get me started on Matt Ryan he is a choke artist waiting to happen. He almost lost their bowl game. I know it was an ALMOST, but he was playing a college team not the Pats or even the Dolphins. He is no Jay Cutler and Cutler ain’t much. I like Brohm better.
JUST A GREENGUY
the only down side to brohm is he folds like a tent when they put pressure on him. i am a rutgers alum. i was watching last years game against them. in the second half they buried him. he looked lost when he was blitzed. and i mean lost.
Almoriz-I don’t want to draft a QB really (As a young man I’m willing to give Clemens a whole season b4 I run him out of town.). Thanks for the heads up tho. I still like him more than Ryan, but I hate everything about Boston (except the Celtics) so maybe I’m biased.
Conner is small, particularly in the legs, and he doesn’t take on blockers well. He’s a nice player in a scheme like the Giants, but he doesn’t fit here. You’d do better to look at Curtis Lofton.
Almoriz, I don’t think Connor will be available when we pick. You are right there have been reports about his lack of speed – he posted an unimpressive 4.7 40 time – but I don’t think that time will significantly alter his status. Connor posted great times in the three cone drills and one of the best shuttle times of any linebacker (he did his at a pro day, but comparitively he would have been top 3 at the combine). While there might be smoke screens and media saying he is to slow, if anything I think his workout might have helped him.
If he is there in second round, he will be appealing-no doubt. I wonder if our FO would be willing to spend another high pick this year on an ILB though, especially if a James Hardy or Cliff Avril is on the board (assuming we don’t take Gholston with our first pick).
Liam
i think hardy will be gone. we need a big wr, but we have coles and cothery as the one, two punch and i am hoping that chansi stucky can stay healthy. he would be a great slot receiver. a really good one.
Just a green guy and seanmac
i’ll take a look at lofton. haven’t seen any video of him yet. i thought conner was just as good a prospect, but let me see what i can find. thanks for the heads up on him.
I can certainly see trading down in order to get, among others, WRs. It seems as if Coles may be gone after 2008, and who else is on the roster? Cotch, Smith, Wright, Stuckey. After Cotch, not much. To my knowledge they weren’t even rumored to be speaking to WRs in free agency. So, they will darft two of ‘em.
JAGG, you could also look at the end of the Virginia Tech game when Ryan threw 2 TDs in the final 2:11, including an amazing pass to Andre Callender, while scrambling and across his body for the game winner with 11 seconds left. Detractors will say that he stunk up the field for the first 55 minutes, but playing on the road, in the rain and with the stomach flu, Ryan found a way to win. Also, he was sacked 3 times and was being run all over the field because his OL couldn’t stop anyone. This game sealed it for me. The Jets likely won’t take Ryan, but I’m convinced that he would be a considerable upgrade over KC and the perfect pupil for Chad.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=272980259
Didn’t Glenn Foley do that to Notre Dame? Yep he sure did and he rode pine. He needs a lot more than that.
Why isn’t KC a perfect pupil for CP?
Because he only finds a way to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, which is really nothing next to Virginia Tech. :-)
JAGG, Foley was 6-2; Ryan 6-5. The ND game was an upset with BC leading the Irish most of the game, tripping them up on a number of trick plays, and then holding off the Irsih comeback with alate FG. It was not the no. 2 team facing a certain loss with 5 minutes left. Foley was great (4 TDs), but that BC team had more talent (Pete Kendall, Pete Mitchell, et al.) and a much better coach, Tom Coughlin, and the game winner was a FG, not a last second TD, in fine weather. But, besides that, the games were exactly the same.
Matt Hasselbeck, at 6-4, is probably the BC QB most like Ryan in stature, if not college performance (Ryan is better). And, don’t most rookie QBs ride pine for a while…Hasselbeck did and has made 3 pro bowls. Also, didn’t Foley get injured right when he was set to be the Jets’ starter? Hmmm, a 6-2 QB, getting injured and cutting his teeth on a terrible Jets team…sounds familiar, doesn’t it? In 1996, Foley had 3 starts, hit fewer than 55% of his passes and threw twice as many INTs as TDs. Again, sounds pretty familiar. Problem is that Foley’s 8 Jets starts, 5 of which were on the terrible Kotite Jets in ‘96-’97, were better than KC’s. But, last year’s team was much better than the Kotite Jets. Better team, worse performance by the young, 6-2 Jets QB. Food for thought.
KC is a 6-2 QB that has to move around the pocket to create sight lines, in the mode of Brees. KC’s mobility is one of his assets and the offense should be geared around his strengths. Chad is a straight drop back passer, like Ryan, and I’m not sure how he can tutor a QB with such a different skill set.
seanmac, you’re right, there’s no way Ryan could’ve matched KC’s thrilling performance against Kansas City in the rain or his legendary rain-soaked performance against the Browns…both played at home, by the way. Awesome stuff, literally brought tears to my eyes. :-)
Hasselback was behind Favre. When Favre wasn’t a shadow of his former self. Ryan has still shown me nothing. He might be a hall of famer, but he isn’t worth top ten just over intangibles. We can all argue our points it doesnt change the facts.
Seanmac- clever
Sack of course neglects to note that one week later, said #2 team in the country stopped being the #2 team in the country because Matt Ryan couldn’t crack a 50% completion percentage and threw three interceptions against a middling Florida State team, but hey, it doesn’t fit the narrative. (Actually, the more I think about it, yes it does. Think of it- we could add another strapping, 6′5″ interception machine to take into Baltimore on the final game of the season with the playoffs on the line. Maybe Matt Ryan can keep Duane Starks’ faltering NFL career alive with a few choice quick outs on the goal line. So much for food for thought.)
JAGG, what facts? That KC was the worst starting QB in the NFL last season? Or, that Ryan is considered by most draft pundits as being the best QB in the draft? Eli Manning rode pine, as did Big Ben, Marino, Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, etc. That Foley’s and KC’s stats are similar? That they were both listed at 6-2? I just don’t know what “facts” you are talking about?
FWIW, IMO, put Ryan in for KC last season and the Jets get 2 more wins. Again, just my opinion.
seanmac, should I now research Foley’s loses? I was comparing 2 specific games because the comparison was made between those 2 games. seanmac, the irony of this is that virtually none of FO’s top-rated QBs have been 6-2 or shorter, and none that I have seen rated as 1st round talent. But, good sound bite. Plus, why not deal with the fact that Foley’s 8 Jets starts were better than KC’s? Well, that messes up your narrative. And, I guess you don’t like Vinny T., who will you slam next? Namath?
Sack you have convinced me of nothing but the fact that you have a crush on Matt Ryan. KC was bad, but should we dump a fortune into Vinny T 2.
Big Ben rode pine for half of a game btw. Eli and Cutler for half a season(approximately). Too young for Marino, but I know it was a short pine ride. Rivers sucks (IMO) three years on the bench to be as good as Trent Edwards in his rookie year.
My point in mentioning good ol’ Glenn was that college comeback victorys are a dime a dozen. Don’t ever compare Vinny T to Namath. Namath was a true Jet. Vinny T was a journeyman who had one good season.
Well, if seanmac says that Ryan is exactly like Vinny T., but not Big Ben, Rivers (who seanmac and FO love), Palmer or Brady, then I guess he’s the second coming of Vinny T. JAGG, get your own opinion, although, I’m convinced you have a crush on seanmac.
Meh. Like it matters. The Jets aren’t taking him! Might as well try to decide if we should trade up to take Tebow or Matt Stafford next year.
JAGG, so Curtis Martin wasn’t a real Jet? Mawae? Vinny T. led the Jets back from the Kotite years and had the Jets one half away from the Super Bowl. He’s a real Jet to me. I still don’t understand your “riding pine” comment. Schaub, Garrard, Romo all rode pine for a couple of seasons and KC rode pine for a full season and a half. What’s the point?
I argued with seanmac yesterday. People don’t always agree sack. I think Matt Ryan isn’t a top ten pick and will side with people who agree with me. Shocking
Brady is an abberation a 6th round gift. I’m convinced Belichek built him. One thing that hurt Clemen’s completion percentage was a coaching staff that had him put the ball up 30 + times a game with a line that couldn’t keep the rabbit from getting Trix and the fact that he was smart enough to throw the ball away sometimes.
Sack,
Actually, I loved Vinny. But as long as we’re going to take extraordinarily dubious comparisons and start throwing them around as if they mean something, it seemed as worthwhile as anything else. I mean, really, in what world does that Foley/Clemens comparison have any worth? I guess in the same one where the Foley/Ryan comparison had worth.
What’s ironic is that all the FO rated quarterbacks played at a high level in college and that’s the thing that binds them together, not their height (which is why Donovan McNabb and Jay Cutler projected to be good and Ryan Leaf and Joey Harrington did not), yet you seem to glide over the long list of 6′4″+ busts that the system projects because, again, it doesn’t fit a Matt Ryan is super-awesome narrative. For the thousandth time, all Matt Ryan had to do to get a Peyton Manning/Ben Roethlisberger projection was play like those guys. But he didn’t. You know who played like them? Brian Brohm. And he’s 6′2″. And he’s likely going to be better than Matty INT.
joe, if KC starts all this season, that may be the talk. Hey, I’m also for taking Brohm or Flacco. Anything so the Jets don’t pin the franchise’s hopes entirely on KC, who hasn’t really done anything to deserve it.
I loved C- Mart. They don’t make people like him everyday. He would have died in a Jet uniform. He retired a Jet. I don’t look at Mawae as a Jet he is a Titan and a damn good one.
Sackdance, you don’t need to be over 6′2” to be a good qb. Look at Romo, Garrard, McNabb, and Brees. Just because a few big guys like Manning succeed you forget about all the Leftwich’s. By your theory, we should trade the sixth pick to the Giants for Jared Lorenzen.
Brohm has shrunk, again, seanmac? He was 6-4, then, 6-3, now he’s 6-2…is that just to prove your point? Plus, you just won’t admit that most of the highest rated FO picks were 6-4 or higher because it doesn’t fit your narrative, especially that Rivers is the highest rated FO pick of all-time and Leinart was higher than Cutler. Just picking a QB with over 30 collegiate starts and over 6-4 works almost as well as FO’s complicated formula for weeding out busts. So, it’s not just Ryan’s height, it’s that he played the most difficult position in sports at a high level for a long time at BC…and had a bunch of wins doing it, not as a cog in a great machine, but as the focal point. But, he just doesn’t fit FO’s arbitrary statistical cut offs. Yes, but what FO says is the word of GOD, or at least, seanmac, so it has to be right. That’s just bunk.
geez, 18andOne, of course there are QBs that succeed who are under 6-4, but the offense has to be built around their short stature. And, again, Garrard was the only under 6-4 QB in the playoffs in the AFC and he still makes more plays with his legs than his arm, which doesn’t bode well for his future success. Can a short QB, NT, WR, DE, LB, CB, or RB succeed in the NFL, sure; but wouldn’t you rather build a franchise with players that are closer to prototypical size? If KC performed better, I wouldn’t be concerned, but KC’s size has bothered me ever since I went to training camp last year and I’ve been harping on it on this blog since then. Can he overcome his lack of height and pocket poise (which may be related)? I honestly don’t think so.
Hey SD99 why are you very high on Matty Ice? Granted he can make all the throws he made many poor decisions in college. He threw tons of careless passes that got intercepted. I’m really not seeing how he would be better than KC.
I just don’t think we can pass on a qb just because he’s not 6′4”. Brohm may not be 6′4” but I would take him any day over Ryan.
ramble914
I see your point. I cannot see the front office doing a move like that. Dallas has a shot with two 1st and a 3rd. Maybe the Panthers make a move. Other than those two I’m not sure who would leap frog Oakland to get at McFadden.
Personally I believe in taking a shot at him if he’s at #6.
Why not?
1. hes a potential bust- so is everyone else
2. we have Leon and Jones- Jones is 30 Leon is not an every down back.
3. we have other pressing needs. like LB- we just signed Pace, Harris looks like a monster, Thomas has shown he can be force.
4. he has skinny legs, he’s an injury waiting to happen- based on nothing but speculation, no serious football related injury’s
5. he has too many personal issues and does not fit the Mangini mold- Can’t argue that one. The FO only knows how they feel about him personally.
Are there any I missed?
I get the feeling from reading the posts here that most people have Gholston or Ryan ahead of McFadden on their board and are down talking him.
Personally the only player I would take over him would be Chris Long.
I think Ryan is the head of a week class and Gholston is over inflated because of his combine and pro days. I’ll take skill and true football awareness over how much he can bench press and how high he jumps.
This height thing is being blown way out of proportion. Here are some recent QB’s whose listed heights fall at 6′2″ or below:
Romo 6-2
Brees 6-0
Favre 6-2
McNabb 6-2
Garrard 6-1
K. Warner 6-2
M. Brunell 6-1
McNair 6-2
Garcia 6-1
J. Kitna 6-1
All of these have been pretty or really good this past year or in recent years. Those teams didn’t have to build their teams around their QB’s height!
Plus, if indeed you are arguing that a QB like Favre can’t see enough of the field to be successful in the NFL b/c he is only 6′2″, do you have to factor in the height of the linemen too? What if a 6′2″ QB has lineman who average 6′3″ and a 6′4″ QB has linemen who average 6′5″? Isn’t the shorter QB better off (as a matter of relativity)?
Come on guys, this is silly!
Sack,
Brohm measured out at the combine at 6′2″ 7/8ths. Call it what you like.
And FO doesn’t have arbitrary cutoffs. What they have is a regression model with predictive value. Completion percentages being equal, guys with 38 starts tend to perform at a higher level than guys with 29 starts. The only person who is trying to create arbitrary cutoffs is you, as you fiddle around trying to jerry rig Matt Ryan’s numbers to come out better. But you do so because you are fixated on the same faulty rationale that height is an independent variable that exists above and beyond performance. It doesn’t. That is why the tall quarterbacks who performed well project as good players and generally turn into them, why the short quarterbacks who performed well project as good players and generally turn into them, why the tall quarterbacks who performed at an average or poor level project as average to poor players and generally turn into them and why the same holds for short quarterbacks who perform at an average to poor level.
Why was Rivers projected so highly? It wasn’t because he was tall. It was because he started 51 games and completed 63.5% of his passes. Why was Matt Leinart projected to be a better player than Jay Cutler? Not because he’s taller, but because of his 39 starts and 64.8% completion percentage. That’s why.
Kellen Clemens started 32 games, just like Matt Ryan. He completed 61% of his passes, just like Matt Ryan. He averaged 7.52 yards per attempt, a full yard better than Matt Ryan. He had a 61-24 TD-INT ratio, significantly superior to Matt Ryan’s 56-37 TD-INT ratio. There’s a very good chance that Kellen Clemens is, in fact, better than Matt Ryan.
Can some one explain why we are bailing on KC after only 8 starts?
Does any one here Honestly believe Tangini is looking at KC and thinking what a mistake?
Sack,
For the record. I believe that a tall QB has an advantage over the shorter ones when it comes to seeing the field. I agree with you 100%, Thats an obvious statement no one here can argue.
No where in any statistical evidence can you say that its a major factor in projecting a QB success in the NFL.
There are to many examples of QB’s that have been highly successful that are under 6′3″
Thread #74 that’s turned into Matty-Clemens Steel Cage Match. Darn, I had 73 in the pool. [grin]
So here’s a question. Given the cost of first-round picks, and the risk factor in young QB’s in general, why don’t we just keep taking QB’s in the second round every year (or every second year) until we find a stud? Top-fifty QB picks have historically proven much more successful than later-round picks (this seems to be the cutoff for a minimum level of talent to succeed at the NFL level – and yes, I know there are exceptions like Brady and Bulger, and I also know there are 40 Josh Heupels and Mike McMahons for every late-round success story.) But, 2nd-rounders are also far, far less risky than 1st rounders in terms of cost, and you can apply 1st-round picks to other positions where there’s a clear downgrade after round 1 (DE, CB, OLB among others). The second round seems like the perfect mix of quality and low risk when it comes to QB’s. And QB is important enough that we should be willing to try this strategy more than once, until we’ve got our guy.
Sack,
You like bringing up Rivers and Leinart in a “They’re 6′5″, Matt Ryan is 6′5″, surely they must be the same” context. Well let me ask you something: Which of these stat lines is not like the others?
Philip Rivers: 95 TDs, 34 INTs
Matt Leinart: 99 TDs, 23 INTs
Ben Roethlisberger: 84 TDs, 34 INTs
Peyton Manning: 89 TDs, 33 INTs
Eli Manning: 81 TDs, 35 INTs
Carson Palmer: 72 TDs, 49 INTs
Matt Ryan: 56 TDs, 37 INTs
It’s kind of tough to tell a difference, what with them all being 6′5″ and all, but I think there might be something…
Because the 2nd round is another great round to find starters to fit in holes on our team. Why keep using it to fill potentially fix 1 hole on our team? Is QB really the end all be all position in the NFL? Personally I don’t think you need a great QB to win a superbowl. Just a solid clock manager who doesn’t make mistakes like a David Garrard type. It doesn’t hurt to have a Peyton Manning or Tom Brady but you don’t necessarily need them to win.
pound- It’s not a bad idea, but it does have two flaws. Teams are generally counting on getting a cheap starter out of their second round picks, so you are potentially impacting your cap situation by skipping over other positions, which you might find yourself paying top dollar to fill in free agency instead of bargain rookie contracts. The other flaw is related, and it’s that quarterback takes longer to evaluate than other positions, and so while you are protecting yourself from a cap perspective, you are hurting yourself when you keep pulling the rug out from under young players before they’ve truly had a chance to develop. That said, I think it’s not at all a bad idea, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that is the strategy here.
(Oh, and to add to the last post, it should go without saying that every single player on that list averaged between 1-2 full yards higher per attempt than Ryan.)
Pound,
Got to admit its sounds like Mangini’s thinking when they drafted KC. Although I doubt they would to commit to that type of drafting. We only have 3-4 more years to find our franchise QB though. So the clock is ticking.
The answer is simple – just apply our 4th round prowess to selecting a QB there. Sure fire quality starter! (Please don’t try to tell me they already did this with Brad Smith, he was never going to be a QB, so he doesn’t count).
As for the neverending debate, I think you’ve both argued your corner so well that I’ve decided I agree with both of you. Not sure how that works…
debacle – I think we need to lower our expectations somewhat if we want to trade down. Regardless of what the draft value chart says, I don’t think there’s a cat in heck’s chance that we would get full value (22, 28 and a third) for the 6th pick. All top ten picks are overrated on the chart because of the additional fiscal risk attached to them.
However, if – as some posters here fear – the Jets are left with nobody of decent value that fills a need or fits the scheme at 6 (assuming that perhaps the interest in McFadden was a smokescreen) and then the Cowboys (or anyone else) come calling, might they not be wise to take a lower offer anyway? It might be the best option they have.
I guarantee they’d be slaughtered by some for it on the internets, but if this year’s draft is stronger, then maybe just the two firsts is enough? If they would have been top 20 picks in any other year, then it even balances out on the value chart. I wouldn’t even be surprised (nor convinced that it was a bad move), if they maybe got a 1 and a 2 or a 2009 1st rounder instead of one of this year’s firsts.
Probably being a bit nitpicky as usual, but I think it’s a big stretch to suggest we might have ten minutes to decide between DMF or two firsts and a third.
I think you’re right, 96debacle – and that’s why I wouldn’t be surprised to see us get one in Round 2 or 3 this year. And seanmac, you’re right about my plan having a drawback in filling other positions for a low cost – but I would argue that we’re in the right situation to take that risk. We’re relatively set for the next 2 years at most positions, but not at QB. Given how much more important QB is than CB, or ILB, or whatever position you feel is their biggest are of need, I don’ t think the risk affects us as much as it would, say, the Falcons, who suck at 43 positions.
To the other question about how you’d assure enough time for a young QB to develop, well, here’s a thought:
2008: Draft Brohm (or Flacco); start Clemens for the whole year. Trade Chad for a conditional 2010 second-rounder, based on playing time / health.
2009: If Clemens worked out in 2008, keep him as starter. If not, start Brohm.
2010: Draft 2nd-round QB. Start same guy as in 2009, and trade the guy who lost the 2009 competition. If that’s Brohm, he would still have a lot of value.
2011: Start the best guy on your roster.
I know it sounds crazy, but I think it’s a better prospect than simply hoping KC’s the guy (he might be, but if he’s not, we’re screwed for the next 3-4 years) or trading for a mediocre veteran.
Vbsiena24, you don’t have to have a superb QB to be a consistent contender… but it sure helps, more than almost anything else. The top 8 QB’s this year (by rating) ALL made the playoffs. That’s why all the progress we’ve made this off-season won’t mean much if we don’t get above-average production from our QB.
We aren’t taking a QB this year. We have two QBs that will be just fine for what we need. This team has to jell first, then you can tell what’s needed. So that waits until next year. BPA suggests you get depth at each position according to the depth of the class you’re drafting from. This year doesn’t seem to have alot of depth at many positions, others, like WR, seem to be deeper. The FO must be weighing this all out, but I bet they’ve a better rational than I’ve read here. One that considers, not who’s the number one QB, but how does he rate against the QBs you have. Can you upgrade by taking him? Who do you cut to make room?
There was a chart some months ago that laid out what round current starters at each position were drafted. Many linemen were undrafted free agents. Positions like CB and WR were more dependent on round and most were drafted on the first day.
It doesn’t sound to me like we’re posting with much of this in mind. “I’d trade down” is my first clue. But if you do trade down, will the depth of the draft reward you? One impact player or two lesser players?
I just don’t see why something obvious, that a 6-4 or over QB has a competitive advantage over a 6-2 or under QB is that controversial a statement. Every Super Bowl winning QB this decade has been 6-4 or over. 96Debacle, is that a stat? I like wins as a stat, I think it’s important for QB, but I know seanmac disagrees. It would be an interesting exercise to look at height, winning percentage and collegiate starts to see what the over 6-4, 30+ start and high winning pct. guys look like. I bet it’s a pretty select group of QBs. Almost every AFC QB is 6-4 or over, with Cutler barely under at 6-3 and Garrard and KC the only under 6-2 guys. In the ’90s, if you dip down to 6-3 (and I would argue that every decade the prototype size gets about an inch taller…soon that has to plateau, probably at 6-5), there were only 3 6-2 guys: Favre, Young and Warner. As I’ve said before, you can throw out West Coast QBs, like Young, Favre, Garcia and McNabb because mobility and quick passes are more important for running these offenses.
And, Dsmizzle, you are absolutely wrong. All the guys you’ve listed have had offenses geared around them and, IMO, Kitna sucks and is hardly the model for the 6-2 or under crew (apparently, Mike Martz offenses work better with shorter, more mobile guys (Warner, Kitna), or maybe it’s a coincidence and Martz hasn’t had a 6-4 guy who can run his offense). In any event, you conveniently left off of your list Grossman, Boller, Losman, etc. Recent first round picks that haven’t cut it. Yes, there’s good old Ryan Leaf who stunk at 6-5 and Dan McGwire at 6-6, but we’ve been down this road before, there’s a lot more 1st round busts under 6-4. I won’t pick on Tavaris Jackson (6-2) because he wasn’t that high a pick, but I don’t think he’ll make it, either. Plus, I like Brees, but I don’t have the time to figure out the last 6-0 QB to win the Super Bowl, maybe in the early 70s? I think Len Dawson and Bob Griese were pretty short. That’s only well over 30 years ago.
I like straight drop-back passers, none of the 6-2 or under guys that are successful (except for Warner, who does fumble an inordinate amount of times), are prototype drop-back passers. That leaves us with KC. I differ from seanmac in that I think height has more of a predictive effect than he’s willing to admit.
See, seanmac won’t post the QBs that have ranked highest under FO’s analysis and put in height because he thinks stats trump the height factor or that height has no predictive value (that’s also true about Wonderlic, so I won’t mention that Ryan’s (32) Wonderlic is significantly higher than either Chad’s (25) or KC’s (26)). So, seanmac will list any number to show that Ryan’s stats are inferior to Palmer (Ryan does have a higher completion pct., but that’s only important when it proves seanmac’s point) or Rivers (who has the highest ranking of any QB under FO’s analysis…I like Rivers, but I’m not sure he’s the best college prospect from this decade) or anyone else. Okay, I get it, Ryan’s stats are like KC’s, but his height is not. So, according to seanmac, if a 5-9 QB playing in Div I-A in the WAC had similar stats to Ryan, then the 5-9 guy should be drafted because, statistically, they represent equal value and you can draft the 5-9 guy lower. I think that’s horse chestnuts.
Fact is KC is short, is coming off of a terrible season and is now the presumptive franchise QB. If that doesn’t concern the average Jets fan, then there’s something wrong. Fans were willing to kill D-Rob as too small for NT, but are silent about KC, who mans the most important position on the team. I hope that I am wrong and under 6-2 KC will be the first under 6-2 QB this decade to be the Super Bowl winner, but somehow I think we all know that’s not happening. Drafting Ryan, Brohm or Flacco should be a must because QB is a need position to leverage the risk that KC is an NFL failure.
I meant Super Bowl winners in the 90s, Favre, Young and Warner were the only 6-2 guys. KC hasn’t reminded me of these guys and, in any event, the Jets don’t run a West Coast offense or have “the Greatest Show on Turf.”
Getting back to us visiting McDaddy again. I hope this is not a prelude to us moving up in the draft and giving away picks. This is a deep draft and we can use all the talent that we can get. Remember, this FO likes to move up for the player they like. Would I be happy with McD – yes but, I would be happier with Vernon Gholston and James Hardy.
harvlis, i don’t think the jets are interested enough to try and move up. just making a show of it to try and drum up trade interest to move down, in my opinion.
bassett, bent, etc.: i think it is officially time for the irrational spygate, irrational manning v. brady thread a/k/a matt ryan v. kellen clemens v. brian brohm thread. the debate is lively and sometimes intelligent, but i personally believe it is detracting from discussion of other issues and comments on the posts.
with that said, i can’t help myself from going slightly off topic too. (but hopefully not irrationally so.) i have to mention, in response to sack, that mike martz’s offense works well with tall qb’s as well as short–trent green and marc bulger both had good runs under martz. i can’t help myself when it comes to defending martz. he is such an amazing offensive mind that is unfortunately overshadowed by his poor decision making. i often think that he should just design offenses and plays and teach qb’s and WR but let somebody else call the plays. but that offense works with any qb who can make quick decisions and throw accurate slants and crossing routes.
Sack- Your still at this? Height is good. Saying 6′5 is better than 6′2 is science not opinion. For all I care give Clemen’s bigger shoes. D-rob was the 4th pick, many years ago and just didn’t fit. On a stat note Clemens threw 4 picks his entire senior year. Do we have QB issues? Sure, but Matt Ryan is not a 6th pick. If we could get Henne in the 3rd with our non existant pick I would say take him or Brohm with a late second. On a value stand point I trust KC and a new WR,DE,ILB,OLB,CB,RT more than a new QB.
Last year was a bad year until Mangini played with the D at the bye (why it doesn’t work week one I don’t get) and still only the D got better. Young QBs need help that is also a fact. With Coles or Jericho hurt and our running game producing 4 TDs he couldn’t look great. I think they had him put the ball up too many times too. He needed good support like Brady and Big Ben got in their stand out first years instead of inheriting an offense that had no weapons. I still love his two minute drill and the fact that he makes reasonably smart decisions for a first time starter. I think our offense will be much improved this year and might even let our defense get some rest.
I just don’t like Matt Ryan. I hope this can be done. Lets get Mcfadden, Ghoulston, C. Long and Hardy or best WR available or the BPA. I just want to make it to the season b4 we start to tar and feathering our players. Thats for camp, the preseason, and the season. Let them play X box and swim in their money.
Sackdance: Concentrating solely on height (which I know you are not doing) is imprudent because it assumes that the QB’s height alone is the only variable.
Are you going to start measuring the size of a QB’s forehead? What if a 6′4″ guy has a huge forehead with lower eyes… doesn’t that make his height useless? What about the height of the offensive linemen? If Calais Campbell is a DE in your conference, is a 6′6″ QB the only way to go?
Lets not forget that Romo and Favre could have won the Super Bowl last year if things broke their way. All of a sudden, the dynamics change.
QB’s and all other positions on the field are going to get bigger over the years… that doesn’t mean being an inch taller or 2 in today’s NFL makes it far more likely you’ll be able to win a Super Bowl because of inherent differences in ability… its just that far more guys are taller, making the percentage chances more likely that a taller QB will win it.
Anyone else read the insider artical on McFadden?
According to Mcshay, less teams are calling McFadden a bad egg then previously thought. Even going as far to praise his football mentallity. I’ll do a quick post:
“…talked to four scouts and not one of them has an ounce of concern about McFadden’s character…”
Not a big number of scouts, no. Possible all from the same team?
They also said:
“…This is a good sign, as it comes after teams have done their due diligence in investigating his off-the-field incidents. One of the scouts we spoke with went as far as to say McFadden has elite football character, meaning he is a tough player and an excellent teammate.”
Here comes the smoke screen.(?):
“After hearing that, it came as little surprise to see Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum leaving the field and having a lengthy discussion with McFadden.”
I’m pro McFadden, obviously and could careless about drafting Ryan at #6 when we still have Chad. Who by the way can start for another 5-6 years for us if we cannot find a QB to replace him. That cannot be said of the Jones. Which should have a good year after a year under his belt in this offense and a better line to work with. but is still hitting the wall at 30 (possibly).
JustAGreenGuy
love the shoes comment to solve KC height problem. lets just face the fact that Sack does not like KC and wants him run out of town.
DSmizzle, that is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard.
Then again, I did post this on February 26th…
“I had this thought about QBs…what if QB number one is 6?5? but has a bulbous, mad scientist-esque forehead and a wide stance in the pocket, whereas QB number two had a neaderthallic flat head and an upright stance in the pocket but was only 6?3?.
QB number one is clearly taller, but when you compare their eye level in the pocket, QB number two’s eyes are probably higher and therefore he would actually be able to see over the defensive line the better out of the two of them.
Maybe the size of someone’s head is proportional to their wonderlic score, so if a player did have this advantage (an eye-level that belied their lack of height), would this always be countered by their resulting level of intelligence being low?
Sean, do you think there is any way football outsiders could work these traits into their projection system?”
Great minds think alike!
Haha, I mean lets not act as if Kellen Clemens is 6′0″ like prolific Drew Brees!
Geez, I still don’t get why everyone doesn’t think height IS a variable. Focusing on height alone would be dumb, but thinking that a guy who is under 6-2 (and KC IS under 6-2, he was listed at 6-1 1/2 by his own local newspaper during his senior year at Eugene), doesn’t have a disadvantage when he’s, at least, 2 inches shorter than his OL is loco. You bust on me for height, but when is a QB too short? 5-11, 5-10, 5-9? At some point, somebody is too short to play the position competitively (no sightlines, balls batted down, etc.). My point, which is an obvious one, is that as OL and DL players get taller, the height that a QB has to be to play his position competently increases. KC, who I saw eye-to-eye at training camp is, if he’s lucky, barely 6-1. So, laugh all you want, but every batted ball and early scramble when the pocket collapses, I’ll be in sec. 318 yelling for the Munchkin to go back to Oz.
Here’s the Eugene Register-Guard back in ‘06 on KC’s draft prospect, note the criticism from his hometown paper and, of course, his height:
Kellen Clemens, QB, UO, 6-1 1/2 , 224. Projected round: Third. Scouts love his mobility, though wish he was more patient in the pocket at times.
http://rgweb.registerguard.com/news/2006/04/28/c1.sp.localdraftees.0428.p2.php?section=sports
And, on an unrelated note, if 6-4 isn’t a magic number, why did Brohm have his height listed at 6-4 (he measured a little under 6-3 at the Combine) and Brady Quinn has shrunk from 6-4 at ND to 6-2 on the Browns? It may be irrelevant to all of you wiseacres, but it’s not irrelevant to the QBs themselves (ot their agents), who know that pro scouts want tall QBs.
Of course height is a variable. Its just not something that will make or break Clemens as an NFL QB.
You may or may not have played football, but on passing plays, my recollection is that the line doesn’t just stand there like a wall in an upright position. Usually, there are passing lanes created by the natural movement of the DL trying to get closer to the QB.
Look, I know its something you look at, but I’m sure that when Clemens was drafted that the Jets took his height into account when analyzing him.