NFL.com City By City Mock Draft
NFL.com has the great idea of polling writers in the city for each team, and here’s this week’s 1-6. Our friend Tom Rock was on the clock for the Jets, and here’s who he picked:
- Dolphins — DE Chris Long (Virginia)
- Rams — OT Jake Long (Michigan)
- Falcons — DT Glenn Dorsey (LSU)
- Raiders — RB Darren McFadden (Arkansas)
- Chiefs — DL Sedrick Ellis (USC)
- Jets — QB Matt Ryan (Boston College)
We love Rock, but we respectfully disagree with this selection. I just don’t see the Jets taking Ryan, in many circumstances at #6. In the past three years the Jets have directly passed on the chance to draft players like Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn. If they wanted the franchise of the future type guy, they would have already taken him. That said, the Jets are now in a position to take the best player available and if that’s Ryan, then I guess that’s Ryan.
Given the strictures of this format (no trades) if given the same options at six, I would take Vernon Gholston. Yes, it might seem like overkill, based on the signing of Calvin Pace, but I think going corner at #6 is just too early. I truly think that Gholston could cut his teeth at ILB (crazy I know) and work into the rotation on the outside. That would be a fearsome, FEARSOME front seven.
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I love Tom Rock too… and now I also love the fact that he is not a part of our FO.
Gholston would be my pick as well…
Agree. Ryan at six, for the Jets, doesn’t work. We do need to draft a QB in later rounds, though.
No way they take Ryan at 6. Tangini’s justification for taking Ferguson at #4 two years ago was drafting Clemens in Round 2. If they take Ryan with the number one this year it will be admitting that the drafting of Ferguson and Clemens was a bust. They simply won’t do that. Not this year.
Gholston (or even BT or Pace) inside? I’m still not sure about that.
I get that the Pats used Vrabel and Adalius in that role, but I think both are stronger against the run.
Chris Long would be a different story.
They did the same thing on First Take the other day and Rock said DMC if I’m not mistaken.
I totally agree on the Leinart and Quinn points though, taking a QB that high right now is a waste of a pick. Look at the Browns, they draft Quinn and then Andersen starts to shine now Quinn has to sit there..it’s a wasted pick. We haven’t seen what Celemens can do with the proper support yet either.
Who are the highest rated ILBs in the draft btw? If DMC is gone I would definitely try to trade down and get a ILB and CB.
The reason the Jets (or anyone else) is considering taking Gholston this high is his speed and pass rush ability, we wouldn’t exactly be making the most of that ability playing him inside.
If they do take him I think its more likely the OLB rotation is BT, Pace, Bowens and Gholston, with playing time distributed based on performance.
sec108 I couldn’t agree more. Gholston is not an ilb, he is supposed to be a passrushing monster. It would be criminal if he were to be moved to the inside. We need to get to the qb. If BT is sacraficed because we draft him, I wouldn’t be too upset. It would also show that the FO is willing to admit to a possible mistake, and not pretend everything is fine with our pass rush.
I believe the team will allow KC more time to develop. Investing in Ryan would be premature, especially when you consider the high draft pick used to select KC.
Jets will trade down if at all possible, and barring that take best available player. (Run DMC, Gholston, either Long)
TFP: The higest rated ILBs are Dan Connor (Penn State) and Curtis Lofton (Oklahoma)… Connor will probably go late 1. or early second round. Lofton will go somewhere in the 2. round.
I agree that Gholston would be picked but I disagree using him at ILB…
I was watching SNY’s Jets Nation and Adam Schein said that Brian Brohm told him the Jets gave him the most exstensive interview he’s ever had. An interesting pick for the second round if you ask me….
I doubt Brohm would make it past Miami or Atlanta in the second round, providing neither one took a QB in the first.
I would love to see the Jets sleect Mcfadden or Gholsotn at #6, but if neither are there I’d much rather see them trade down to go after the likes of Mendenhall, Stewart (despotethe injury), or a top reciever. I dont think Matt Ryan will develop to be a better quarterback than Clemens will if he is given more time. I think the case is that there are no real top-tier QBs in this years draft, so Ryan’s value is far overrated.
I think something that was said on Jets Nation is important to note and that is a draft pick, especially a QB, doesn’t lose value sitting on the bench so it is not a “waste” of a draft pick. A QB, maybe only a QB, has value regardless of minutes played and regardless of a team having seen him perform.
I’m not saying Ryan should be taken for those reasons but I do know that as a trade chip he would be something to work with. Also, as a luxury if we could afford it, he would be a good backup for the future.
Tom is off his Rocker! Jets spent a second round pick selecting a very capable quarterback of the future in Kellen Clemens.
Firstly, thank God Glenn Dorsey had a great Pro-Day. Hopefully, Jets will land an elite prospect with the sixth pick.
Yet, they don’t need QB Ryan; they need DE Gholston to pressure Tom Brady (See NY Giant’s in Super Bowl XXXXII).
Hopefully, a bonified speedburner will fall to Jets in the top of the second round, complementing Coles and Cotchery and adding to Clemens arsenal… otherwise, Jets take a LB like Dan Conner or Jared Mayo.
Damn, Tom. For a smart guy. This was one of your dumbest posts.
If anything, Jets will take Delaware QB’s Joe Flacco’s strong arm and right mind… or low risk, late round Hawaii QB Colt Brennen to hedge their bets and push Clemens into maturity.
Not surprisingly, I respectfully disagree with the analysis. The Jets passed on Leinart/Cutler because of the salary cap problems in 2006. There is a QB premium, so the Jets would’ve faced a bigger contract if they had taken Leinart/Cutler and Chad’s contract was a millstone: he could not be cut, he had to be restructured. The Jets just could not commit that much in salary cap money to the QB position when there were so many other positions to fill. In 2007, with Chad coming off of a Comeback Player of the Year season and KC waiting in the wings, there was no reason to take Brady Quinn (who, IMO, is several notches below Ryan as a prospect anyhow).
Now, in 2008, we know that Chad has too many physical limitations to continue being the Jets’ QB for the long-term and he is due a huge roster bonus. So, cutting him might be appropriate. And, I won’t go on about KC anymore, but anyone who follows my posts knows that I just don’t think he has what it takes to be a successful NFL QB. I think that I have seen enough from him and I do not think it’s a snap judgment.
So, given the way Rock saw the draft, the choice was between Gholston and Ryan. Ryan is hands down BPA over Gholston. Pundits like Aaron Shatz of FO, Mike Mayock of NFL.com, Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, Don Banks, etc. all put Ryan the top QB in the draft. QB is a more valuable position than OLB/DE and, in any event, the Jets have better in-house OLB options than they have QB options.
I know many think Ryan could be a bust or Brohm is better (which I just don’t see), but I think Harvey is better than Gholston and his relative draft position (a firm top 15 pick) is much better than Brohm’s (who is a 2nd rounder). Again, Ryan represents better value than his alternatives, which is another sign of BPA.
As for flushing a 2nd round pick, the Jets flushed their 3rd round pick, Schlegel, pretty quickly (after just 1 rookie season) and traded up to get his replacement, Harris. If the FO believes that Ryan constitutes an upgrade over Clemens (as I do), then pulling the trigger and ushering in the Matty Ice era makes sense.
And, one more thing… should QB Matt Ryan fall to Jets at six and DE Chris Long, OT Jake Long, RB Darren McFadden, DE Vernon Gholston are off the board, then look for Jets to trade down for extra picks.
As I’ve said before, the whole draft hinges on what the FO really thinks of Clemons. If they agree with the assessment of SackDance99, then the pick of Ryan not only makes sense, it actually is cause for celebration. Maybe Rock knows something of the FOs thinking that we don’t.
Also, lets temper expectations for what Gholston could do as a pass rusher at OLB as a rookie. IMO, the two best pass-rushing OLBs in NFL history were LT and Derrick Thomas. LT had 6 sacks as a rookie and didn’t crack double digits until his 4th season. Thomas had 7 sacks as a rookie and cracked double digits in his 2nd season. I know a lot of you like Gholston, but he’s no LT or Thomas! Thomas had 27 sacks in his senior season at Alabama!!! More recently, Shawne Merriman had 10 sacks his rookie season and Ware had 8, but Gholston is not Merriman or Ware and, if Gholston is taken at 6, he’d be taken higher than either of them. If Gholston is a bona fide NFL pass rusher, then he would have the same maturity curve as Ryan at QB, meaning his real value would begin to show in his 2nd or 3rd season (or later). FWIW, Vrabel, who was better at OSU, has cracked 8 sacks only twice in his career and really didn’t start to shine until his trade to the Pats in his 5th season.
TFP,
In addition to Connor and Lofton, Jerod Mayo from Tennessee is another highly rated ILB
A few thoughts:
1) Brohm’s about the exhaustive nature of the interview are interesting, but I think they probably do that with everyone … glad to know they are diligent at their homework
2) I know Gholston (or BT) as an ILB doesn’t sound right, But if it’s Gholston it would be temporary, not for years and years. David Harris had 5 sacks last season from the inside so it’s not like they don’t try to create pressure from the inside as well … look at a guy like Justin Tuck … he plays all over (albeit in another scheme) and still seems to rush the passer. The whole Adalius Thomas / Vrabel flip-flopping has convinced me that if the Jets had the right personel, they’d do it too.
There’s a trend emerging in the NFL that I noticed many teams do in 2007 that unbalanced rush … rushing 4 guys or whatever from just one-side or another. Gholston could be the guy who moves all over. With Harris already in the middle to take on runners, Coleman on one side and Jenkins now in the middle, it’s less a concern. Gholston could be an OLB long-term, but for now, it’s a space where he could squeak in, and be pretty scary
very good comments, sackdance. I agree with the majority of what you wrote. One exception being that I need to see more of Clemons. With that said, the draft will come down to who is available to the Jets and how highly they have them rated. The Jets are just as likely to move up as they are to move down. I disagree with alot of the posters who say there is no way they will take Ryan, or any quarterback early in the draft. If they believe Ryan is a can’t miss QB, I think they would do whatever they could to get him. Conversely, if they were able to trade out of the No 6 slot, they could take a QB with whatever new pick they recieved. The bottom line is none of us know how they have these players rated.
i agree taking ryan is a waisted pick…b.thomas is a bust in my book unless he proves other wise…so taking gholston is a must if hes there at 6…we need passrushers and i for 1 am not sold on or comfortable going into the season with bt and bowens opposite pace…theres no such thing as having to many passrushers…so teaming up gholston with DH and PACE will generate pressure and hopefully turnovers…who knows…maybe gholston will be our next DH…just my thoughts…
I agree with Pete. The bottom line is that, sitting here today, the Jets don’t have a true starting QB. Maybe KC can be that guy but it is far from a sure thing. The opportunity to have the #6 pick doesn’t come around that often (at least, hopefully not). If the FO think Ryan is a real gem worthy of a high selection, maybe they go ahead and pick him and deal with the fallout. If the assessment turns out to be right, it will be the best decision they ever made.
SackDance – generally very thorough analysis, but one GLARING mistake: Chad was restructured prior to 2006 draft, so $ was NOT an issue with passing on a QB. I’m sure FO went with a ‘build the trenches’ first mentality. BPA analysis, etc is solid – but since you mentioned QB premium – there’s no way Jets guarantee $25 million to top QB drafted to sit on the bench. They’ve still got holes – the same CB that is good enough to go #7 to NE could go #6 to NYJ — or, in the absense of a trade-down option, they could show pull an ‘Edgerrin James’ and draft Mendenhall at #6 – since we all know that someone is trading from the 13-18 range to 9 or 10 to draft him.
The biggest hole on the team right now is lack of a true starting QB for the long term. Is KC the guy that can fill that whole? I think the jury is still out on that one and that KC should be the starter so we can find out once and for all. However, I haven’t been watching KC in practice every day for 2 years. If Tangini has decided that KC really isn’t the right guy, then having the opportunity to draft the #1 QB is a gift. It all depends on what you think of KC.
The other flaw in the “let’s take Gholston analysis” is that we do not know where Pace will play. If he’s on the weak or right side (the QB blind side), then drafting Gholston makes no sense. The strong or left side is as much a run-stopping position as a pass-rushing position. Harvey makes more sense than VG for the strong side because he’s bigger and a better tackler. Also, Harvey’s size and tackling ability makes him a better Adalious-type because he’s better suited as a run-stopper…meaning he could play ILB. Thus, even with Ryan out of the equation, I’m not sure Gholston fits or represents good value at 6. Too bad Laurinaitis or Maualuga didn’t come out, because either would represent better value than Gholston or Harvey and, as I see it, ILB next to Harris is a bigger defensive need than OLB.
If they do go with Ryan at 6, I hope we can get Groves at the top of the second but I doubt he will be there. I do want another pass rusher- Always thought that Groves and Harvey were better football players then Gholston- Gholston puts up huge numbers at the combine and he becomes the talk of the town. Harvey is very athletic having been a basketball player.
Swift, I stand by my Chad comment because taking a QB at 4 in ‘06 still would have left the Jets with too much cap money devoted to the QB position and there was also too much uncertainty swirling around Chad. Timing is everything and I just don’t think ‘06 was the time to draft a QB with the no. 4 pick. As for paying money for a player to set on the bench, most rookies, except for the special ones or OL, ride some pine (or should) and whoever the Jets take at 6 is going to have a big contract (although a QB’s would be either larger or have more guaranteed $$). Mendenhall is an interesting choice, but he’s a bit of a reach at 6. I also do not think trading down is an option.
I also think Keith Rivers could play ILB alongside the DH.
I always think of the GOAT’s on the defensive side and they all had one thing in common. That killer instinct! That non-stop motor that drive to make “the play”. If and I mean “if” we draft Gholston he better have that killer edge! I mean imagine a guy like that notching 15-20 sacks in a season on our team! Yikes!
In true honesty the best “pass-rushing” OLB’s are true OLB’s that can pass rush from the outside. By getting Gholston we are picking a “project” player that we expect to fill a position that he wasnt playing in college.
I agree with Sack. I would have been annoyed if the Jets overlooked their other needs for a high-priced QB back then and I don’t regret it now.
I also think that the gap between McNeil and Ferguson is smaller than most people think and will probably disappear within the next year or two.
If we draft Matt Ryan we will just be giving ESPN more footage of disgruntled Jets fans to show at future drafts. SAY NO TO MATT RYAN. darren mcfadden, vernon gholsten, chris long – yes.
If we draft Ryan (who I don’t like at 6, but I’m not the FO) The worst thing that can happen is having multiple bust QBs on the roster, which shouldn’t happen. Plus, Sack will shut up. Yay. That being said I hope we can get a 2nd rounder for Chad and fill the other holes. We should draft a WR with him, so he doesn’t practice regularly with bums.
If he falls, the Jets could take Ryan…on behalf of another team and then swap Ryan for picks/players.
With all of the supposed preparation of the FO, I’d bet this scenario has been played out with Tannenbaum contacting other teams regarding their interest in Ryan. Baltimore is a potential trade partner but with only the Pats standing between them and the Jets in this year’s draft, the Ravens will take the chance that Ryan slides past NE.
Carolina, Chicago and Detroit sitting at 13, 14 & 15 are possibilities. Among that group, Chicago might be the dark horse (an Orton/Grossman QB competition?!), but the Bears have big holes to fill on the OL and in their WR corps.
If we draft Matt Ryan we will just be giving ESPN more footage of disgruntled Jets fans to show at future drafts. SAY NO TO MATT RYAN. darren mcfadden, vernon gholsten, chris long – yes.
SACK – agree on your timing point – now vs 2 years ago.
Regarding LB: this is paraphrased from something I read on this or another blog, and seems to make sense:
Pace, although paid like a sack machine, is really more of a strong side LB, thus his high tackle total and modest sack numbers last year. He’s 6′4″ and 272 pounds – so big enough to hold up against the run. Apparently, he’s also decent/acceptable in space, so he can cover TE when needed.
Bryan Thomas is almost the same size (about 10 lbs lighter). he will most likely move back to weakside. The interesting part that I had read is that although he was listed as weakside last year, he played more on strongside to allow Victor Hobson (6′, 250 lbs) to play weakside. Hobson was too small to play strongside and lacked coverage skills to handle TE. Not coincidentally, I just checked and he still is an unsigned FA.
If we draft Gholston, it would seem to be at BT’s expense. He’d most likely lose some time to the rookie, and maybe be a candidate to replace Barton inside in 2009???
Mike G – none of those 3 will be there at #6.
A second rounder for Chad? Are you delusional? There is no other team that considers him a starter. The only reason the Jets do is because he looks (and plays football) kind of like Woody Johnson.
I think Chad would be great for the Bears. I said hope, because I guarantee you wait until week 2 of the season when a starter goes down and he will he worth a 2nd rounder. If the Jets pick Ryan I will be disapointed. In the same world where we should draft Ryan, Chad is worth a 2nd rounder.
Drack- I like that scenario- take Ryan w/ the 6 and work a deal w/ Carolina, Chicago or Detroit at 13, 14 or 15, we still get our pass rusher and then target a big WR in the top of the second.
Clarification for the word “Big” wr, I don’t necessarily mean tall I mean good.
JAGG, the Jets already have two sub-par QBs. Isn’t it time to draft a replacement? And, JAGG, I’ll shut up about Ryan, but I’ll just be warming up on how terrible a pick VG would be at 6…this decade’s Ron Faurot.
Swift, I still don’t think VG will be a pass rush threat instantly and certainly no better than BT/Bowens for the short term. I agree that BT was overmatched on the strong side and putting him back on the weak side could rejuvenate his career.
Sack- I don’t like Gholston either. Tons of potential tho. I wanted to rile you up I’m bored at work. I want Mcfadden or C.Long. The draft could be very sad for me.
I don’t think Chris Long will fall to 6. Dorsey and Jake Long will also be gone. That leaves Gholston, Ellis, McFadden and Matt Ryan and maybe Ryan Clady although I expect the Chiefs will actually take Clady if Jake Long is already off the board. Among these four guys, the only one I’d want is McFadden but I’d prefer to see the Jets trade out of that spot and be able to take a shot at Kentwan Balmer in the middle of the first round. The Ellis/Coleman bookends I imagine are an issue for this Jets defense and I think Balmer would be able to shore up the end position. This would also leave the Jets with additional picks in the late first/early second round of the draft where they could target CB, WR, QB, or OT. The Balmer pick would also make the Robertson situation a mute point as it would provide depth at the DE position and make Robertson entirely expendable.
I also like Limas Sweed if the Jets are able to find a trading partner.
GreenGuy – Bears need a QB, but don’t ya think it’s just a tad too bit windy for Chad’s weak arm in Chicago? He needs to play in a dome (attention Minnesota, with an awesome running game – here’s your answer).
My point was that he is better than Trent Dilfer. Nothing more, Nothing less. Minnesota is just as good a spot.
Here’s Rock’s take on the Jets’ private workout of Ryan (sure sounds like they’re doing their due diligence and, fwiw, KC’s footwork in the pocket is atrocious, so I wouldn’t dismiss the Jets taking Ryan so easily):
Jets kicking Ryan’s tires
The Jets met with QB Matt Ryan in an individual workout this past week, and while the team is typically mum about such things, Ryan himself has no problem reporting what happened. Be careful, Matt, that kind of openness could cost you some demerits in Jets-land!
In an online diary for FOXSports, Ryan writes about how the Jets had him throw 65-70 passes in a little over an hour (he threw just 52 on his Pro Bay at BC). The Jets were also very interested in having Ryan work within their system and show them his footwork both in and outside the pocket.
“They wanted to see first-hand what balls I can throw from within their offense. They especially wanted to see my footwork in the pocket and had me make several throws on the move. They wanted to see where I could put the ball when I was forced to move out of the pocket.
“I was as happy with the performance as I was with my Pro Day, but I got to throw on the run a bit more and show off my arm when under pressure and my footwork a little bit more. I loved it.”
It’s interesting that the Jets aren’t giving Ryan a cursory, courtesy look, the kind you might for a guy who you’re not that interested in but who could land on a team within your division (don’t think those things don’t happen). Will they draft him if he’s there at No. 6? That depends on who else is available I suppose (cough, cough, McFadden, cough). But there’s certainly enough healthy realism in their current quarterback situation for them to take a good long look at other options.
Posted by Tom Rock on March 27, 2008 9:38 PM | Permalink
at the end of the day it doesn’t matter what any of us want or think…but i still have to say…i really hope we dont draft ryan…i’ll be happy to take any of the top picks accept for him…i just dont think we need to draft a QB…or a rb for that matter…what we need are defenders and a wideout…with the upgrades we made to the offensive line and adding T.RICHARDSON and B.FRANKS as extra blockers our run and passing game should be alot better…as should our QBs…
as for our deffense…with the pick up of jenkins and pace i think our deffense has improved but not by a whole lot either…we still need ilb,olb,de and cb as insurance if j.miller doesn’t pan out as i think he will…so to me it makes alot more sense going deffense with the 1st pick and WR with our 2nd pick…or deffense across most of the board…again it really doesn’t matter anyway…and these are…just my thoughts…
Sack99,
Your love affair with M. Ryan is beginning to piss me off, he is no better that KC. He is not worthy of a top 10 pick, and to take him at # 6 is stupid. What are you basing this on? His college stats are average at best, if you compared him to the likes of P. Manning, C. Palmer, M. Leinert, P. Rivers he would be a 2 or 3 round pick in any of those past drafts compared to those QB’s, so why is he so great now? He is definetly not the BPA or a position of need, so forget him and hope we get Gholston, McFadden or Dorsey.
Swift…
While its a possibility that all 3 will be gone by 6, lets not jump to conclusions and say they wont. Especially since almost all mock drafts have the jets taking gholsten or mcfadden. If Matt Ryan, Chris Long, Jake Long, and one of the DT’s are all drafted before we pick, then Mcfadden or Gholsten will fall to us.
ramble914, I think a more accurate statement is why do you hate Matt Ryan so much? Like I’ve said over and over, Mayock, Kiper, McShay, Schatz, Rock, Charles Davis, etc. all put Ryan as first round, top 5 talent, Mayock has absolutely gushed about him. I’m pretty arrogant, but I’m not so arrogant to believe that guys who do this for a living are stupid for ranking Ryan as a better talent than VG, who I’ve never seen advocated as a no. 1 pick. And, I find your assertion that QB is not a position of need to be just nuts…did you see the QB play last season? As for comparing Ryan to other drafts, that’s just idiotic speculation. I have no idea where Ryan would’ve been chosen in other drafts, but I know that in this one he’ll be the first QB off the board and probably the only first-rounder. Also, the Jets have done pretty well with their first-round QB choices: Namath (Super Bowl), Todd (AFC Championship), O’Brien (Divisional Final), Pennington (ditto). I think as true Jets fans, we should be excited if the Jets take Ryan because if he ends up being somewhere between Namath and Todd (sorry, I thought he was the worst, but I know he has fans), then he’ll end up being pretty good. The Jets track record for first round OLB/DE is decidedly more spotty.
To be fair to sack, he did apologise in advance (sic) and say we were going to get tired of his Matt Ryan boosting as soon as we started talking about the draft.
sack we agree on the fact that todd was bad…but i think you contradicted yourself when saying the experts aren’t stupid for ranking ryan higher than gholston then you go on and say gholston isn’t even a 1st round pick…now true they have ranked ryan ahead of gholston but thats for his position not overall cuz most of the mock drafts i have seen gholston is drafted before ryan…and few have ryan falling to the ravens…just my thoughts…
Bent, way back when when we had an online chat on Friday to discuss the 2nd Buffalo game after Thursday’s BC-Virginia Tech game, I said that I had a man crush on Ryan (if any of you watched the game live, Ryan’s performance was just awesome, I know he couldn’t keep Ryan at no. 2, but all season he lifted an otherwise terrible BC offensive team on his back and led them to their best season in a long time…that’s stuff that just doesn’t show up in stats, except that he did pass for 4,507 yards and just got sacked 21 times in 654 attempts…he accounted for over 2/3 of BC’s offense…yes, I know the negatives 31 TDs to 19 INTs, a 59.3 completion pct., which was better than Jay Cutler’s senior season, by the way, as was Ryan’s 6.89 YPA) and, prophetically, Bassett said “not this again, we had enough of this with Leinart.” Who knew then that the Jets would end up with the no. 6 pick and, sorry to say this, that KC would be so wobbly at QB. Like everyone else, I thought KC was the QB of the future and, ironically, I defended him until after the Browns game. That cut it for me. I never thought QB was an option or that Ryan would be a draft possibility. But, after last season, QB is an option and Ryan is a distinct draft possibility. Heck, I don’t even like BC! I especially hate when they win the Beanpot, like they did this year.
Cutler played for Vanderbilt and went up against Florida, LSU, Georgia, et al. It’s really beyond the pale to compare what he had to do with what Ryan had to do (just peruse that BC schedule), yet all I hear is how Ryan’s poor stats can be explained away by his supporting cast. As it is, Ryan is going to have the worst TD-INT ratio of any first round quarterback in the last ten years, and, other than Cutler, by a fairly healthy margin.
It’s true that it’s all about timing- you want to draft your first round quarterback at a time when there are guys worthy of the pick. Unfortunately for the Jets, this isn’t the year, as there really aren’t any guys like that, aside from possibly Brohm, who has real value but not enough perceived value.) But when you grit your teeth and insist that there is a franchise QB when there isn’t one, you end up torpedoing the franchise for five solid years.
dakar, to clarify, I meant the no. 1 pick overall (Mayock and McShay have Ryan going to the Fins). VG is a legitimate first rounder, but his ranking well above Harvey, I believe, started with his Combine workouts. Honestly, I haven’t seen that many mocks with VG over Ryan, but I know there are some…Carucci isn’t a Ryan fan and has Ryan going after VG. But as the draft muncher shows, Ryan is chosen higher on most mocks and, but for Draft Daddy’s trashing of Ryan, he might’ve been at 3.
Here’s McShay’s latest take on VG (and you VG fans won’t like it):
Eug (NY): Gholston and McFadden off the board, who do Jets target?
Todd McShay: (1:38 PM ET ) I see them bailing out in a hurry. But I do not see that happening. I think Gholston is overrated. I would say they would be reaching for Gholston at six, even though I have him there in the mock. There are six elite players in this draft and then there is a drop off in talent. Gholston is not among the elite six. People who are saying St. Louis at two or the Chiefs at five should take him have not done their homework.
sack im sorry…must of misread it then…its all good…
SD99, you really need to tone down your Ryan man-love. I mean, you pushed Leinart and he got replaced by Kurt “am I really still in the NFL” Warner last year because he was ineffective. I am unconvinced he will come back and I think he will eventually be seen as the third best QB in that draft (although hopefully the fourth). As for Ryan, if he had been in that draft he may not have even been ranked as high as Clemens coming out. Is he the best QB in the draft this year? Probably, but I surely wouldn’t pay him #6 pick money. Look what happened to the Lions, Texans, Niners, Chargers, etc. after drafting QBs high who maybe weren’t worth the draft slot they went in. Do I think Ryan can become a good NFL QB? Yes, but I don’t necessarily think the chances of him doing so are that much higher than some of the other QBs coming out this year.
seanmac, we just disagree. I’m glad you like Cutler, I agree he looked real good losing at Vandy and I’d be willing to bet a lot of money that Ryan has a better career. Here’s McShay’s take on Brohm:
Mike (Minnesota): Why is Brohm’s stock falling so much?
Todd McShay: (1:35 PM ET ) I still think Brohm can be a good NFL QB, but I think the more we watched him on film, the more you realized he needed the right supporting cast to have the same success at the next level. He is very steady and he can operate an offense with the right weapons and the pass protection. But Ryan, Henne and Flacco each have special qualities that make NFL teams think they can, in their own right, create plays that Brohm can’t. I have Henne, Brohm and Flacco, all within 10 spots of each other. So I do not think there is much that seperate the three. but from talking to personanle people on the road this week; Henne is the hottest of the three right now. While I think it is a little bit of a reach, I did have one scout say he is hearing Henne could come off the board somwhere in the teens.
Just to move this over to the proper thread, as Brent noted, Aaron Schatz is the head of FO. He also happens to not watch any college football, which is why it’s amusing to see him thrown up as argument that Matt Ryan is a top five talent. All the college football coverage is done by other writers at FO, and I can promise you that when our draft coverage comes out, that not only will Ryan not be considered worthy of a top five pick, he won’t grade out as the best quarterback in the class. Thats dollars to donuts. (Aaron does have a great deal of respect for Ron Jaworski, however, and I know that Jaws is big on Ryan. I also know that Jaws was on record as stating that Kellen Clemens was the best quarterback in the class of 2006, so you probably want to take that into account.)
Anyway, my point is not to kill Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan with the seventeenth pick is a worthwhile risk. But Matt Ryan as six is an unmitigated disaster, even in this draft. He’s the exact same player as Vernon Gholston- he has a first round body and has put in second round production. Neither one deserves a sniff at the top end of a draft.
Ilan, Warner did not replace Leinart, they had a co-QB thing going with the Cards until Leinart got injured. Also, two offensive coordinators in 2 years. If you want to screw up a young QB, keep changing systems on him. Leinart will be the starter this year and we shall see how he does…with Boldin and Fitzgerald and a second-year in the system, I expect vast improvement. So, I don’t think I was wrong and, in any event, Leinart was, I thought, real good as a rookie…why damn him for 5 games his second season (by the way, the Cards were 3-2 in those games and Leinart had a real nice game against the Seahawks).
Again, with the “if Ryan were in the 2006 class argument.” I’ll play that game: No, you’re wrong. Ryan would’ve been ranked higher and would’ve been taken before KC, primarily because of health. Also, Ryan fits the NFL prototype (6-5, cannon arm, deceptively good footwork) and was better known playing at BC and on ESPN Thursday night football (and a bowl game). And, to play this ridiculous game some more: This year KC would go lower than Brohm, Henne and Flacco, all of whom are healthy. KC would be a 3-4th rounder and would have to worry that Woodson, Ainge and Brennan did not overtake him.
Just look at the disparity between Brohm and Ryan’s actual production. Brohm has thrown for 10,054 yards to Ryan’s 9,313, but he did so in 1185 attempts to Ryan’s 1347. So Brohm was noticeably more efficient. When you look at TD-INT ratio, there is simply no comparison. Brohm threw 71 TDs and 24 INTs. Matt Ryan threw 56 TDs and 37 INTs. As I noted elsewhere, those are the worst numbers posted by any first round pick in the last ten years. Not only are Ryan’s INTs unacceptably high, but his touchdown total is appallingly low for a guy with so many attempts.
In just about every imaginable way, Brian Brohm was a better college player than Matt Ryan. Even if you insist on the importance of quarterback wins, which I don’t, Brohm took his team to #2 in the country as well, and did so in what was a tougher conference than last year’s ACC. The only way that Ryan beats Brohm is when you take out the tape measure. And tape measures have proven to be a pretty faulty mechanism for determining worth.
seanmac, I just quoted Schatz. My quote’s not wrong. I know FO’s complicated and interesting regression analysis will rank Matt Ryan lower than Brohm. IMO, his only flaw is the INTs, but when you have to generate offense on your own, you tend to try to do too much. He did toss for 4,507 yards….I don’t have the stats, but that would be up there for the most in a single season by a first round pick in the past 10 years, especially not in a gimmick offense. And, like I said over and over, he just did not have any easy games, even Northeastern’s defense chased him around all day. My point about Cutler is that his stats are good given the terrible quality of Vandy’s program and the overall quality of the SEC. But, Ryan did a lot with very little and won, which is a big reason why a guys like McShay and Mayock rank him as a elite prospect. You may be right, but McShay, Mayock and SackDance99 could be right, too.
SD, the did have the co-QB thing going and although part of that can be attributed to Leinart’s youth, the reason this was done is because Leinart had difficulty running the offense quickly and effectively enough. For a guy who’s strength was supposed to be above the shoulders, this was not a good sign.
seanmac, yep, Brohm had better stats than Ryan and that’s proof positive that he’ll be the better pro. Stats are much better than a tape measure, unless you’re comparing Ryan’s unadjusted stats to Cutler’s, then adjusting the stats is better. But, adjusting the stats for Ryan’s poor supporting cast would be wrong, because it was statistically insignificant that Ryan had the 2nd worst ACC running game. Brohm had Michael Bush and a terrific running game his statistically better sophomore and junior years, but that he couldn’t keep his team at the same level after Petrino left isn’t his fault. Ryan had his best season with a weak team, a new coach and system. That he led this team to an 11-3 record and a BCS bowl win, again, is irrelevant.
So, you’re right and guys like McShay and Mayock are wrong, Ryan is clearly inferior to Brohm. And those NFL personnel guys who think that Ryan, Henne and Flacco are all better than Brohm should forget the tape and pro days and just look at those stats, because they really tell the whole story.
We should also throw out there that Mike Mayock is both a BC alum and a personal friend of the Ryan family. Seeing as he’s just about the only guy who has Ryan as the #1 prospect in the draft, you have to at least make note of that. That said, sure, maybe he and McShay and you are all right. It’s possible. The issue is how possible. If you go by the traditional draft ratings, by all the same people who thought David Carr and Tim Couch and Ryan Leaf were franchise quarterbacks and worthy of the #1 or #2 pick, then you’re going to assume it’s about a 50-50 chance. If you look more deeply into predictive factors, you may decide that picking a quarterback doesn’t have to be Russian roulette, and that the best way to keep from sinking your franchise is by being able to identify unacceptable risks at the quarterback position.
By that token, you could easily have come back from the Michigan-Ohio State game raving about Vernon Gholston and how it’s high time the Jets had a pass rusher with prototype size and speed like this guy. It’s one game. As I said before, Gholston and Ryan are second round prospects in first round bodies. Each one may end up playing to their stature, as it were, but it’s highly risky to assume they will do so.
Pat Kirwan projected on NFL Radio today that MIA would take Gholston with the #1 pick, after talking to his “contacts.” This assumes, acc. to PK, that the Fins can work out a deal in principle prior to the draft. When Gholston was interviewed later on he said neither he, nor his agent had been contacted by the fish. When pressed on his measurables, he also said that at OSU he had squatted 455 lbs 20 times. If this is an indication of ‘burst’, this dude has it.
I gotta say the Jets are being so circumspect about Ryan,that its making me suspicious. I think the Ravens could get above the Jets pretty easily if they thought he was the solution..
Similarly, I think the Rams are pretending to be “in love” with Gholston, to avoid Miami trading with someone who wants Dorsey.
We are 1 O- line injury from repeating last year! How is RT not our top priority? We need 2 DE’s! Barton was second on the team in tackels so drafting anyone to play inside is just plain stupid. Is anyone ok with Barret starting? OL then DL then CB then WR Then D Coordinator…oops
I think they got our mock pick wrong, Kellen has to play the whole year with this (maybe) good offensive line, last year he had nothing exept Semour in his face. He needs a chance not Matt Ryan at QB. We should focus on either Mcfadden to replace Thomas Jones or Gholston to knock the QB’s out a couple of times!!!!!!!!
Mike, we can draft depth at the oline in the later rounds, but i wholeheartedly agree that DE is a priority and we are fine at ILB. The addition of Jenkins will only help Harris and Barton, and we could draft a young ILB later on. In the early rounds we need to find a pass rusher who can generate 14 sacks a year and a WR who can stretch the field. Corner is deep in this draft, and we need one of those too. But, if Clemens or Chad can figure out how to be successful next year, we can be a good team as long as we have a productive draft.
This whole thread suggests the wisdom of the Jets trading down if they can. I think it is quite possible that the Jets decide there is no can’t miss prospect available who is worthy of #6 money. So they trade down and fill other holes at CB, WR and DE or LB (with “second tier” prospects like Balmer or Campbell). Give KC he ball this year, for better or worse, and find out if he can be the franchise QB. If he can’t, then having filled other holes this year, they can use all of next year’s choices to manuever into position to get one of the top QBs (whoever that is). This scenario is starting to make a lot of sense to me. I know people were very disappointed with KC last year. But let’s be fair, the guy has hardly been on the field and, when he was, the OL was terrible, the running game sucked, Coles was injured, and teams were totally teeing off on the guy. True, he didn’t distinguish himself under those circumstances but who would have. We’ve invested two years in developing the guy. Give him a chance to succeed or fail and use this year’s draft to fill other needs. Having done so, will be in a good position to draft a QB next year if we decide that is an absolute must. Let’s face it, none of the this years QB prospects are coming out with the credentials of Peyton (or even Eli) Manning. They all have pluses and minuses. Maybe they’ll br good, maybe not. But the same can be said of KC and he is already on the team. A year from now it might be a different story.
Sack,
Mayock is a BC alum and a close friend of the Ryan family, a fact that he was rather slow to admit when he was putting Ryan on top of his draft board. It doesn’t mean his opinion should be ignored, but it’s worth mentioning. Anyway, it’s easy to point out the authority of draft experts when they’re saying something that you happen to agree with, as Mayock does when he puts Ryan #1 overall. But then you promptly ignore that authority when Mayock puts Vernon Gholston #2 overall. Kind of problematic. If you value the traditional scouting method for grading quarterbacks, then you are essentially saying that, as Brian Billick insisted, drafting quarterbacks is a crapshoot. After all, the analysts who are pimping Ryan now are the same ones who carried water for Alex Smith and for David Carr and Joey Harrington and Ryan Leaf and Tim Couch and every other highly drafted quarterback bust. Their record of distinguishing good quarterbacks from bad ones is not very good. (I mean, Mel Kiper made his reputation by banging his shoe on the table for someone to hurry up and draft Trent Dilfer.) But drafting a quarterback doesn’t have to be a crapshoot. You can manage the risk by looking at predictive factors, and those factors suggest very strongly that Matt Ryan is not another Peyton Manning, but that he’s a fairly pedestrian prospect. Is it possible that Ryan proves he’s actually an elite player? Yes. But the odds are not very good, and they’re certainly not good enough to make me want to throw the sixth pick of the draft away to find out. Somebody else was posting about how you don’t get the sixth pick in the draft very often. That’s actually not true. When you pick high, the odds are good that you are going to keep picking high, because every time you miss on a top player, it’s going to sink your franchise and it becomes a downward cycle where even when you hit on a player, you’ve spent such a large proportion on your cap on the misses-costs that upper tier teams simply don’t have-that you are constantly swimming upstream. Look at Detroit- they haven’t been universally awful at picking guys in the first round. When it comes to expending picks on receivers, they’ve done a better job than Jacksonville- Charles Rogers and Mike Williams were busts, but Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson are studs. That’s batting .500, but the costs of the misses are enormous. Jacksonville whiffed consecutively on Reggie Williams and Matt Jones, and they followed it up by whiffing on their tight end Marcedes Lewis for good measure, but the picks have been low enough that their misses haven’t had the same kind of devastating impact on their cap. The most important thing to do with these top picks is not screw them up. And nothing is a bigger screw up than whiffing on a quarterback. When you pick one, you better have very sound reasons to think the guy won’t bust.
“Brohm had Michael Bush and a terrific running game his statistically better sophomore and junior years”
I don’t think it makes a great deal of difference to the argument, but Michael Bush played less than 2 quarters of football in 2006 before suffering a broken leg! Their running game was still good, though.
Damian, I personally think we can do a lot better than Barton inside.
Bent, I should’ve just said running game, which was my point. For all of FO’s great regression analysis, I was pointing out that there is a subjective component to FO’s allegedly objective statistical analysis. That’s why Cutler, despite his good, but by no means great, stats (which are generally inferior to Ryan’s) had a high first round ranking. Ryan deserves the same subjective tweaking because his OL was poor, his running game was poor, he was the focal point of the offense (and every team knew it), he was in a new system, and he had an 11-3 record, keeping an otherwise mediocre team in BCS contention. Schatz’s article also has relevance. Given BC’s poor OL, it’s amazing that Ryan averaged a sack for over every 31 attempts…I saw it, Ryan would throw the ball away rather than be sacked. Good for his team, but bad for his completion pct., which is another FO pet peeve. Also, and I know everyone thinks that I’m wrong about this, but he deserves a + for being 6-5, with good footwork–like Big Ben (and Lewin, the FO regression analysis guru, did admit that he thought Ryan was a lot like Big Ben), whose stats were better, but he did play in the MAC.
So, seanmac, when Ryan ends up in the Pro Bowl, it won’t be the failure of FO’s regression analysis, it will be the failure to account for the challenges he faced that his competition did not face. We just think the other is wrong about Ryan and let’s leave it at that. But, returning to this thread, I agree that Gholston is not top 10 talent and taking him would be a drafting error.
More than either regression analysis or the quality of his college team, Ryan’s success will be determined by the currently unknowable ability of his team to show progress (assuming he is picked by a losing team), during the currently unknowable period that it will take for Ryan to get used to the speed and complexity of the NFL. If Ryan is picked by the Ravens, and the defense implodes, then Harbaugh could be gone within the normal window of QB development. The identity of the next Ravens coach is similarly unknowable,and hence the job security of Cam Cameron is unknowable. And there we reach a fact that we generally acknowledge, QBs do better when they stay in the same system. Please tell me with confidence that Ryan will be playing in the same offensive system in year 3 as he will his rookie season. Link under my name is to the top 40 95-2006 QB’s. Talent does not always rise to the top in the NFL, just ask Chris Chandler.
Sack,
You only think Ryan’s stats are better because you fail to note that the single biggest predictor for guys in the top half of the first is career starts. Cutler started 45 games- that’s elite territory, up there with Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb and Carson Palmer. Matt Ryan started 32 games. That’s a full season’s worth of starts that Cutler had over Ryan. So the only area where Cutler has a big advantage happens to be in the single most predictive area. I’d also note that Cutler went 11th overall, which was a reasonable place for him to go- any higher and you would have to be concerned about the completion percentage. 11th overall is too high for Ryan, but it would be a significant improvement on sixth overall.
But yes, we can all agree that the experts are wrong about Gholston. Unless they aren’t.
seanmac, starts are predictive, unless your name is cade mcnown, whose stats were pretty close to cutler’s. but, cade is only only 6-1…okay, I won’t go there again!