Does Interest In Matt Ryan Mean The Jets Don’t Like Clemens?
In a word, no.
In the same article from Gary Myers I linked to earlier, Myers references that it might be a Three’s Company scenario in Hempstead this summer.
Pennington could easily be the starter coming out of training camp. But he and Clemens could have company this summer. The Jets held a private workout in Boston on March 21 for Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan. It was attended by Mangini, Tannenbaum and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. They are the three key QB decision-makers and they all would not have been there if the Jets did not have serious interest in Ryan.
ProFootballTalk has this to say about the situation
The mere fact that the Jets are kicking Ryan’s tires isn’t good news for Clemens, the second-round draft pick in year one of the Tannenbaum-Mangini regime. If the G.M. and coach are sufficiently secure in their jobs to cut the cord on Clemens, perhaps they’ll give the job to Chad in 2008 – and resume the search for his eventual successor.
Florio’s logic is wrong … kicking Ryan’s tires has nothing to do with Kellen Clemens and their faith in him, it has to do with a methodical approach to the draft. One in which the Jets have had some solid results with in the past few years.
Added onto that, the team has made the future of this team less reliant on a Quarterback, so as I now see it, whether it’s Pennington or Clemens or even Matt Ryan, as a fan I don’t have to worry about the burden of winning being solely on the Quarterback of the team.
This front office is nothing if not dilgent and over the past two years, the team has been cornered into drafting for need on Day One, they are now in a position to let the draft come to them. I firmly believe, the Jets are in a situation where they are going to weigh all their options and want to know who would be available to them at the sixth pick. Spending as much time with the top ten players will help them set their draft board best and make whatever decision is best, whether that means taking Matt Ryan some other player or even if it means moving back.
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We need to trade up (or down) and get Brohm or fallco at the end of 1st, beginning of second.
I will repeat. Tangini’s justification for drafting Ferguson at #4 two years ago was taking Clemens in the second round. If they take a QB at #6 this year, Tangini will be admitting that the drafting of Ferguson and Clemens was a failure. There’s no way they will do that. Not this year.
Good post, Brian. Interesting that Tanny is saying they won’t trade Chad, although coming from one of the worst sports writers in existence (myers), I take it with a grain of salt. How myers actually got on TV must be one of life’s great mysteries.
Seems to me like this could be a smokescreen or an attempt to get teams to offer more for Chad if they really want him. That of course is another question – does anyone want him? Seems to me that those who ant to pull the plug on KC so soon are having a knee jerk reaction to a bad season. Football is a team game, hard for one guy to shine when the team as a whole sucks.
No one is giving up on KC–I just want him pushed, hard.
Here’s the biggest flaw in all the “expert” logic — if you are building a team to “win now,” then how in the world would throwing a rookie #1 pick QB into the mix solve anything?! No matter how great he is in college — and most agree that although fairly decent, Ryan isn’t nearly as good as the guys the Jets passed on two years ago (Leinart, Young, et al) or even a Brady Quinn (who they passed on last year) — there will be a learning curve of a couple of years before a rookie QB will lead to a championship.
Roethlisberger, although immensely talented out of college (more so than Ryan, I would argue), was an anomaly, and also surrounded with a championship-caliber team. The Jets, although vastly improved, aren’t there yet.
Personally, I think they’re just doing due diligence, kicking the tires on all the top guys — as well they should. And there’s definitely a layer of smokescreen to these guys, no doubt about it. But honestly, I’d be shocked — as would most of New York — if the pick was Ryan.
If they don’t appear to want Ryan at all, no team that does want him will feel that they’d need to swap with us or in front of us to get him. That means that the first place they’d consider starting discussions to trade up is after our pick. I think we all know who is sitting right behind us at #7. Making it obvious we aren’t interested in ANY of the top 10 guys would simply be bending over right in front of the team at #7 (they shall not be named). On the other hand, making it seem like we want Ryan would force teams to consider jumping in front of us, which would make it more likely that one of the guys we really want, like the Longs or Run DMC, would fall to #6.
I agree with ED – pass on Ryan and target Brohm (but not Flacco-hype-machine)… late 1st would be required as Miami, Atl and KC all should be thinking the same way. SD is one team that most likely would trade down out of the 1st round… ideally Jets could drop from #6 and then use their 2nd round pick plus another 2nd or 3rd to go back up… then they’d probably get someone like Derrick Harvey or one of the CBs available with 1st pick and Brohm with 2nd… and then resume drafting for depth with their two 4th round picks…
How can anyone think the team has given up on KC? 6 games (or whatever is was) with a horrible OL and no running game b/c of the OL + injured receivers leads to an anemic offensive output. I liked watching his scrambling and arm strength…the guy needs time and weapons, which he’llhave this year. I love Chad, but his time is over, and he’ll make a fine backup this season, I hope.
Wouldn’t it make sense if you have one of the top picks, to look at all the prospects you may have an opportunity to draft?
I feel this is less to do with KC than it does with making sure they are not leaving anyone out of their evaluation. Be it a trade or if they really like the kid. If they have him staring at them at #6 and their top 5 picks on THEIR board are gone, it probably would be prudent to have really looking at him before draft day.
I think Gary Myers makes this stuff up. He is always quoting “unnamed sourses”, if you can’t name them, then don’t quote them. Myers was the same guy that was quoting an unnamed AFC GM who siad that Tangini were desperate for their jobs and that is why they signed all these FA, now he reports that they are safe for at least the next two years. This guy is the worst sports reporter.
NOBODY is GIVING UP on KELLEN. but the BOTTOM line is the fact that CHAD is DONE! im SORRY to all you CHAD LOVERS out there(i love him too!) but after TWO surgeries to the SAME (throwing) SHOULDER,he just does NOT have the arm STRENGTH to be an N.F.L quaterback anymore. not a STARTER anyways. so therefore that leaves us technically with NO BACK-UP/FUTURE QUATERBACK! MATT RYAN makes PERFECT sense, too me anyways. ALL i KNOW is that ever since TANGINI has TAKEN over,almost ALL of our draft picks have CONTRIBUTED in SOME WAY. if TANGINIOUS drafts RYAN,it is the RIGHT pick. if they draft GHOLSTON,it is the right pick. if they trade down for even MORE draft picks i’ll LOVE that too!
The Rams brought Darren McFadden in for a workout. They must be down on Steven Jackson…or something.
PFT is great for breaking news and rumors, but it has some of the worst, most illogical analysis out there. first, florio talked about jets overspending in free agency to win now, overstating the amount of guaranteed money they gave up, failing to mention that they gave up a net of one low draft pick, and failing to see that they are now in position to draft bpa. then, florio completely missed the ball on the coles deal, saying that the jets would have been better off extending him long term when any jets fan knows that coles may be good now, but he probably won’t be in 4 years at the rate he is getting injured and when a long term deal would have huge cap implications. now this shoddy analysis, that fails to acknowledge the need for thorough evaluation of all the top draft prospects.
when florio refers tohimself as an “internet hack,” he makes it a joke that the “real media” don’t give enough credit to bloggers. well his superficial analysis and failure to fully investigate a situation before reporting only adds to that media disdain for bloggers. he might think it’s a joke, but unlike the bloggers here, florio is genuinely an internet hack.
Brian it seems you are the only one that gets it, while the other reporters write like they are looking for jobs with The Star. Thank you for your excellent work.
Jets’ Fans it seems to me that was is DONE is not Chad and his arm, but your scapegoating logic!
Your arguments are just not logical! And they go like this! Chad the year before went 10-6, but last year he showed that he is done … despite the fact that his QB rating was much better than KCs.
And your argument goes ….well KC had a bad OL, like Chad had a better line! Grow up!
Nik- Chad has less excuses for his performance last year than KC and even when he was the comeback player of the year (who failed to come back in the playoffs- lil joke) he threw close to as many INTs as TDs, which is not a good stat. They were both bums last year. Chads QB rating was made on 3 yard passes and completion percentage. He sure can check down. They were both BUMS it will all unfold soon.
I agree Brian, whether it is a smokescreen or not this is the right thing to do. At 6 we have many options we can roll with, we just have to let the draft play it’s self out. Our FO is smart they will make the right decision for the team.
As far as taking Matt Ryan at 6; to be honest I wouldn’t mind having him on the depth chart, especially if he falls to 6. He will obviously push Clemons, but if we can get later round picks for the 6th spot I’m still happy. But the QB position will only succeed if the guys in the trenches do their part.
Clemons needs this camp to get himself together, I don’t see him being our QB next year unless he produces this year. This is a very important offseason/camp for Clemons that’s why throwing the idea of maybe drafting a top QB like Ryan should hopefully light a fire under his butt if it already hasn’t been lit for other reasons.
Expect the Unexpected Boys!!! This Draft is going to be a good one for us I have a Good Vibe… Just be Patiant and let the FO continue to do Good Work!
I think the Jets are doing their due diligence and, after KC’s awful play last season, the Jets are obviously looking at all the QB candidates available. That’s just a smart front office looking to improve the team any way it can.
The one argument that I don’t agree with, in various forms, is that taking a QB in the first, second or later rounds in this draft says anything about the 2006 draft. That was then, this is now. The Jets passed on Leinart and/or Cutler because it was not the time to draft a 1st round QB from a team needs or salary cap perspective. Also, the Jets did not “pass” on Brady Quinn last year. The Jets specifically targeted Revis, traded up and snagged him. After Chad’s Comeback Player of the Year performance and taking KC in the second round in ‘06, drafting Quinn would have been nonsensical.
As for evaluating Ryan as a prospect, Scouts Inc. has rated him as a 98, Quinn was a 97, and Cutler a 96. I am not saying that he’s better (although I think that he is), I am saying that it’s debatable. I know lots of people on this blog are Ryan-haters, especially seanmac, but if Mayock, McShay, Kiper and I are right, then Ryan could be the franchise QB that the Jets have not had since Chad injured his shoulder. More importantly, if Mangini and Tannenbaum take Ryan it will be because they have the same opinion. I’m to the point that whoever they take, I’m cool with it, especially because I think the Jets are still rebuilding. I trust these guys to draft the right guy for the right time (but, if he’s there, I think it’s Matty Ice time).
We have to be patient with KC. This will be only his third year. The more hyped QBs selected in front of him in 2006-Young, Leinart and Cutler have had their ups and downs, and everyone agrees that they need time. So does KC, or virtually any QB with a rare Marino exception.
“Chad has less excuses for his performance last year than KC”
Unless his ankle injury had some effect on his performance…
Nikolas I understand where you are coming from but the past 2 seasons with Chad he had only 1 more TD to INT each year (that is 27 to 25 over the 2 years). That is not the Chad any of us had known, not the Chad of old, and while he had a crappy year in 2003 he came right back in 2004 with a better ratio.
The INTs are one problem but it’s also the predictability of his reads based on his ability which is why the DBs can jump the routes. Also, to repeat myself, it was scary watching some of his passes float to the WRs and put them in jeopardy. He doesn’t have arm strength and most of the fans can see that. Maybe he can get some back but it was visibly not there, and it wasn’t that strong to begin with.
Now if he has a better running game, perhaps that can offset a weak arm because of the play action but I think he is a back-up now too. I’m not scapegoating him by saying it was his fault that they were losing I’m saying that he is not as good as he was and the means he’s not as good as we need. I don’t know if KC is the answer but I think I’d give him a shot over Chad right now.
Actually I think what the staff is doing is what I would do and that is to have a QB competition. They will see who is best to run the offense new coaches involved and new players and man the best QB win.
Rich, it really depends upon the QB. Big Ben, Marino, Peyton, Favre and many others were good either right from the start, or in their second season after being drafted. I’m not sure that there’s a set time for maturation. Certainly, there was nothing in KC’s performance that hinted that he will definitely become a franchise QB and there were enough troubling plays to suggest that he won’t become one. Unfortunately, sticking with KC is a risk. Whether this risk outweighs the risk of drafting a QB in the first or second round is the question that I am happy the FO is asking.
I’m basically going to be fine with whoever the Jets draft at six as well, even if it turns out to be Matty INT. In part, that would be because I trust the front office’s personnel acumen, and in part because I am not as down on Pennington or Clemens as some. Part of what makes drafting a quarterback at the top of the draft so potentially crippling for a franchise is that they basically have to let him play his way out of the job for 3-4 years before they can turn around and address the position again. But that wouldn’t be the case here, as Ryan would have to beat out both Pennington and Clemens to see playing time this year, and he’d have to beat out Clemens next year in camp. In short, he wouldn’t be just given the job like many first rounders are; he’d have to earn it. I wouldn’t put the odds at much better than 50-50 that he actually could beat out Kellen Clemens, and you’re wasting the opportunity to take a position player at #6, as well as the free agent opportunities afforded by starting a second-round quarterback, but at the end of the day, it’s only money, and you would certainly be giving yourself every opportunity to secure the position.
QB’ sare tough to find. I’d rather get one later (like Flacco) that doesn’t kill us with the contract as much. That’s why I’m praying for McFadden because at the very least he will be a Reggie Bush type player. He is the one guy that we know we can use somewhere. Who knows with Ryan, Gholston or others.
Sack- I have decided to avoid QB arguements with you, but Peyton wasn’t great from the start his numbers were very comparable to Eli’s and Ben inherited a solid team that only made him throw 15- 20 times a game on average. KC put up 42 passes in one game and 41 in the Cleveland game you often cite. The Difference between Big Ben’s Steelers and Last year’s Jets are very noticeable. It is apples to oranges.
In an ideal world, I’d love to trade out of the # 6 slot, pick up an extra pick or two, and then get #3 or 4 cornerback and # 3 or 4 WR that has height and/or can stretch the field. Then get the G from Virginia (Albert) for depth.
I’d be pretty happy if our fist three picks netted us something like Talib, Manningham and Albert.
However, we must all continue to be realistic in our ability to trade out of the # 6 spot. Based upon the slotting guarantee assigned to the pick, a team has to really desperately want a player to trade up. I still think that DMac would be too tempting for Jerry Jones, even if they have Barber. Their offense could be pretty sick with the two of them.
If we were to get DMac, I think Schottenheimer (if he returns to his creative ways of 2006) would find a multitude of uses for him – a Slash-type role, but with many more touches.
Someone has posted on this blog that “you draft not for this year but for 3-4 years down the line” (was that SeanMac?).
I agree with this and find it hard to believe that they would draft a QB very high when there is alot we still need, even for depth. I’m not super high on KC based on last season but think he needs more time & a better team around him (which he should have this year) to really see what he is all about. Seems to me like we can address more needs and draft a highly rated QB (or sign one) next year if necessary. I guess if Ryan falls to us at 6 and no one will trade, you have to consider it. It’s definitely smart to thoroughly check out all the possibilities beforehand.
It’s obvious, since the Jets have looked closely at Ryan, Gholston and McFadden, that they are trading Clemens, Pace (whom they just signed) and T. Jones and the next three years’ 1st round picks and drafting all three.
JAGG, I said “Big Ben, Marino, Peyton, Favre and many others were good either right from the start, or in their second season after being drafted.” Peyton made the Pro Bowl and had a terrific sophomore season:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00.htm
Needless to say, this past season was KC’s second after being drafted. Also, it’s another excuse to say that he didn’t play his first season, because neither did Favre, who also made the Pro Bowl in his second season:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FavrBr00.htm
And, the year before Favre started, the Pack was 4-12. Like I said, I don’t know how long it takes a QB to mature, but I agree with seanmac, the consequences of sticking with the wrong highly drafted QB too long can be devastating to the franchise. As Jets fans, we went down this road with a second rounder before:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/N/NaglBr00.htm
Does anyone here think that we would draft Ryan if the FO thinks he’s the BPA on the board?
Saying KC = Neagle is ignorant speculation. I’m not saying KC is a star, but Neagle couldn’t play. KC can. Just maybe not at starter level. Do you do this on purpose? That was ridiculous and Peyton was handed a team that was in the AFC championship not too long b4.
At 9 years old I saw that Neagle was horrible. He was god awful. I sat in the freezing weather to watch the Saints take, not strip, the ball out of his hand and run it for a TD. KC had bad moments, but he wasn’t that.
Sack saying you were one of the first who wanted to pull Chad makes your QB love look even more fickle btw.
Kiper does have a rather proud history when it comes to projecting quarterbacks, it’s true:
“He (Peyton Manning) isn’t John Elway, Dan Marino or Jim Kelly, but he’s as good as it gets in college football,” Kiper said of Manning. “A lot of these teams in the NFL are desperate for quarterbacks and he’s the best out there, with Ryan Leaf a real close second.”
“Carr now becomes the cornerstone of the Texans’ franchise. He is a franchise-caliber quarterback with accuracy and velocity reminiscent of another No. 1 overall pick, Troy Aikman. Look what Aikman meant to Dallas. Carr is a major building block; with the right supporting cast, the rest could be history. His sidearm delivery is a concern because there is a possibility for his passes being batted down. Plus, he won’t scramble around and make things happen with his legs. But Carr has the physical ability. He was brought along slowly at Fresno State in order to grasp Pat Hill’s sophisticated offense. Last season he was the most consistent performer at the college level, and he beat three top-level opponents at the start of the season. He lit it up at the Senior Bowl and seized control of the top spot at that time. The Texans had to pick him. His maturity and leadership are critical aspects of his makeup.”
“Harrington is the third highest player on my draft board and deserved to go in this area. Playing in Mike Bellotti’s offense at Oregon, Harrington is a great fit for Mornhinweg’s West Coast scheme. Harrington, who has a Brett Favre-like flair for the dramatic, was a highly productive quarterback and one I had rated only slightly behind Carr. But he outperformed Carr at the NFL scouting combine, showing tremendous touch and accuracy on deep balls and more than adequate arm strength. The Lions had to make a pick to generate fan interest in their team, especially with a new stadium coming soon.”
On Oregon quarterback Akili Smith, whom Cleveland may choose with the first selection in the draft: “If there is a concern with Smith, it’s that there has been too much elevation for a QB who is basically just a one-year wonder. With the rare arm strength he possesses, Smith is definitely worth any risk that might be involved.” Projected pick: Cincinnati, 3rd selection, first round
On San Diego State quarterback Dan McGwire, rated Kiper’s top draftable QB in 1991, “…a gifted pure passer, shows a command of the offense, and has the physical strength to withstand the hits that his 6-8 frame forced him to endure.”
Of course, we all know about his insisting that drafting Marshall Faulk over Heath Shuler and Trent Dilfer was proof the Colts had no idea what they were doing.
No one spots “It” like Mel. (All of this is a long way of saying that while it’s nice that prospect A or B gets a 95 or a 97 or whatever from draft experts like Mel Kiper, there is a long, brutal history that suggests you should try to find better ways of determining who is a top prospect and who is not.)
JAGG, who knew KC would be so bad? It shows that I was willing to give KC a shot and, since he failed miserably, I think it’s time to move on. I think it adds to my credibility. I have nothing against KC, except that if he continues to be the QB, my favorite NFL team will continue to lose. Oh, and by the way, I am older than you are and I remember the hype about how great Nagle was and how good he looked in pre-season (the hand-picked apprentice for QB guru Bruce Coslet, my lunch is coming up thinking about it). Here’s a fawning article from the NYT putting Nagle in better context:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE2DC173DF937A1575BC0A964958260
Only time will tell whether the comparison is unfair or valid.
I just read that the Patriots are bringing in Matt Ryan for a visit, they must be unhappy with Tom Brady.
Sack,
You’re laughable, KC failed miserably, and it’s time to move on? After only eight games? All because he is only 6′-2″ instaed of 6′-4″? Because of the Cleveland game, which I have heard you lament about repeatedly? I’m sure the Broncos are glad you weren’t the GM when John Elway lined up under guard one time in his rookie year, you probably would have cut Joe Montana because he couldn’t crack the starting line up until his 3rd year. Heck, Eli Manning would have been cut/traded after his second year with you at the helm. I can’t wait for KC to prove you wrong.
I don’t think they take Ryan but there is no reason not to do the due dilligence. That’s their job. We just don’t know what they really think of KC. Personally, my guess is they give him a year to prove he can be THE MAN. If the answer is no, we will have a similar draft position next year. I also don’t see the logic of taking a QB in the second round. 2nd round QBs are all hit or miss(yes, I know, all QB prospects are hit or miss, regardless of draft position). Why bring in another one to compete with the one your already have. Why not just play KC to see what you have. If KC isn’t the answer, go get a 1st round stud. If the FO has already made that decision, they should take Ryan now. If they want to give KC a full opportunity for a year (and I think they will) and he blows it, then get a 1st round quality QB next year. Remember, this FO had KC evaluated as 1st round talent who only fell into the 2nd round because of the ankle injury in his senior year. Maybe they have changed their opinion but I think they give him another year to prove his value before moving in another direction.
Good one ramble, they also brought in DMac, must be getting ready to jettison Maroney.
SD99, your opinion on the jets current qb’s has been well stated on this site, as has your man crush on matty ice (and his exceptional height). I do not agree on KC, I am with the group that would like to see what he can do with a better supporting cast, I’m not saying that he will, but i’d at least like to see him get the shot. That and the fact that he’d have some confidence from having played in actual games this time around as well as a full offseason with the offense as a starter (more reps, better repoire with the WR potentially). I get your point about some guys having it and some guys apparent busts (Nagle a good example of the latter) right off the bat, but surely you can admit some guys take more than 8 starts to show their true colors? I know plenty of Giants fan more than willing to roll with Jared Lorenzen at many points this season, including after their week 16 loss to the Redskins, and a little over a month later he won them a superbowl (I know, I know with alot of help from a great pass rush and running game, but still he made enough plays to help them win).
Having said all that, I do, like many others, trust the FO’s judgement here, if they perform their due diligence on all the prospects as it appears they are, and decide that Ryan is the best the choice at #6 then so be it, I even think its a good situation since he won’t be forced to start right away, but that shouldn’t be an indictment of the current qb situation, just the FO trying to improve the team as best they can, who knows maybe Clemens plays well and staves him off for a few years ala Derek Anderson, maybe not, either way I believe our current staff is prepared for the contingency.
I believe its unfair to judge KC until he’s had a full season of being the #1 QB starting from OTA’s. Give him all the reps, the coaching, film time, experience working with the 1st unit… By the time KC hit the field last year the season was over, every team knew our strengths (few) and weaknesses (many). JC not KC was the only QB that could have helped that team last year. If he flops with a quality team around him then we have a problem, not yet, its way to early.
Alright, i’ve bit my tongue too long here.
I am a BC grad and a lifelong Jet fan. I’ve seen every throw Matt has ever made – from his first game (when blew our chances to go to a BCS bowl by losing to the ‘Cuse in his first start – he was replacing an injured Paul Peterson) through every game this year. And, i’m partial.
To call him Matty INT is silly. He had no one to throw to. Our WRs were questionable at best – Brandon Robinson, Rich Gunnel, Kevin Challenger… the closest thing he came to a playmaker is Robinson. Very small margin of error. Which is why most of the big plays came from Callender.
Go youtube the hit he took against clemson during his sophomore year – a game he won in overtime. Or, the fact, that during his Junior year he played the entire year with a broken foot under Tom O’Brien’s super conservative system.
For me, the most frustrating thing last year was seeing that my college team had a better qb than my pro team. He is simply a better talent than Clemens. And, yes, it is completely unfair to judge them against each other (first year nfl starter against a 5th year senior), but when you watch one on sat and one on sunday, it’s hard not to.
That isn’t to say he didn’t make some bonehead throws – for example, the first throw of the year vs. wake forrest (a game he recovered to throw 4 tds in and win in a blowout) or the throw against v-tech with 6:02 remaining (a game you’ve all seen the ending to). I blame those more on attention then anything else (and a great deal of the other ints go to the receivers). However, when the game was on the line, he was locked in.
BC was/is not a supremely talented team. He made them as good as they could possibly be.
That doesn’t mean he’s the right pick at 6. But it’s the truth.
ramble914, I’ve said over and over that KC: (i) has pocket poise problems (which have dogged him as a criticism since his days at Oregon), (ii) is unwilling to stay in the pocket and takes off too soon, (iii) is inaccurate, (iv) throws too many INTs, and (v) is short, making getting better at points (i)-(iv) more difficult, unless he’s in the Drew Brees category of short QBs. Take off your rose-colored glasses, you may insult me, but KC’s performance was an insult to the QB position…he had the worst QB rating of any starter last year. Going from awful to bad isn’t what I want from the QB position this season. If you do, then you just don’t care about whether the Jets win or lose.
sec108, some guys do take more than 8 starts, but KC’s 8 have placed him with some real bad company. Also, I’m willing to bet that he probably is in the top 20 of all-time worst QBs for a non-first round pick for his first 8 starts. Teams have to give the Heath Shulers, Akili Smiths and Ryan Leafs enough starts to prove they’re busts, but the leash is considerably shorter with a 2nd rounder or later. As nutty as Harm is, I don’t think he’s going to let Croyle (3rd rounder in ‘06) continue to stink it up. But, Croyle’s 6 starts were better than Clemens’ 8 starts. Let that sink in: Clemens was worse than Brodie Croyle. And, Croyle probably had fewer QB 1 snaps in his 2 training camps. That Clemens will end up being a productive NFL QB is a long shot.
Also, Jets history is not on his side, look at the 2nd rounders…not good company:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?pos=QB&round_1=1&round_2=3&tm=nyj&year_1=1936&year_2=2007&conference=any&type=
Croyle was supposed to be the starter going and throughout training camp. He was given every chance to take the job and sucked it up. Croyle had tons of snaps. I watch the whole league especially when he was just below Clemens on our wish list that draft.
And, generally, second round QBs have not fared all that well (with Brees and Plummer being the best in recent history):
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position
JAGG, KC was part of Mangini’s open competition for QB 1 in 2006 and last training camp, Clemens got a ton of QB 1 snaps, if Croyle got more over his 2 training camps, I’d be surprised. Also, Clemens got 2 more games. Still, it’s not good company.
Sack,
I am going to refrain from tit for tat posts. I can only say that for the sake of the Jets and us fans, I hope you are wrong. We need a break, and to have KC pan out this year would be a major one.
its not really that shocking that the FO is looking closely at every possiblility. ramble914 points out the pats have brought matt ryan in for a workout as well. it wouldn’t be very responsible as an organization to pass on the opportunity to take a real close look at a guy that has been mentioned to go as high as #1 but yet could fall to our position.
could you really draft or for that matter trade a player that you don’t know anything about.
even if ryan does go to us @ #6, it does not necessarily mean the team is giving up on clemons, which is of course what the media will assume, but rather they think too highly of the guy to pass up. this has little to no chance of happening anyways, the daily news just needed some sort of story out of this guy, which BTW, i agree strongly with some earlier points, gary myers is the biggest dip $h!^ in the media. hands down, i would rather take life advice from my mother in law any day than believe what this guys puts on paper
As a complete aside, if any of you are interested, the link to all QBs drafted is real interesting. Also, it’s amazing how few 2nd rounders ended up being stars. Brees (1st pick 2nd round), Cunningham (1st QB taken in ‘85), Boomer (1st QB taken in ‘84), Neil Lomax and Stabler are probably the best of all-time. None of these guys are in the HOF. It might be sound draft strategy to forget the second round for QBs, unless you’re taking the first QB of the draft in the 2nd round. Doesn’t really mean anything about KC; it’s just an observation.
Clemens’ DVOA of -14.0% was not out of line with some of the early performances of other guys in recent years. For instance:
Matt Hasselbeck (01) DVOA -14.0% (7 TDs 11 TOs)
Michael Vick (01) DVOA -23.8% (2 TDs 8 TOs)
Eli Manning (04) DVOA -28.4% (6 TDs 10 TOs)
Alex Smith (05) DVOA -97.8%!!! (1 TD 13 TOs)
Derek Anderson (06) DVOA -28.5% (5 TDs 8 TOs)
John Beck (07) DVOA -39.2% (1 TD 7 TOs)
Brees doesn’t make the list as he was better in his initial action before becoming worse than Clemens in season two. So that list includes three guys who went #1 overall who were all significantly worse than Clemens in their first seasons, as well as two guys in Hasselbeck and Anderson who were non-first round picks who struggled mightily before improving/benefiting from their teams improving around them.
It’s not hard to make a case that Clemens was bad last year. But it’s hard to make a case that he was so bad that he can never turn things around. The Super Bowl MVP was literally twice as bad when he was thrown in midseason.
seanmac…that was a nice piece on all the busts kiper picked as potenial superstars…thats what i love about some of you guys…you do research as if it was your job…i do shii from what i remember what i read around the internet tv and from what i see…and my comments are just my thoughts…but i dont go as deep as you guys do…keep up the good work…just had to say thanx for all the insight from you bas bent sack and all the others…peace…
I’ve not yet given up on KC, but that doesnt mean that we shdnt take Matt Ryan if he is available at #6 (and Dmc and Ghoulston are gone by then and no one to trade with). ITs pointless to get a CB that high when you get a chance to possibly draft a franchise QB (even if you have a franchise QB as your starter in KC). Need or no need. Needs at CB should never overshadow the importance to take a chance high up in draft on a QB.
Remember, by next 2 yrs(if KC totally sucks) with a solid running game we might not get a higher pick in draft to get a QB.
Believe whatever you want sack, but a QB contest in your first year where you don’t win the job vs. two veterans is very different from when you are handed the keys to the car and perform so under expectations in the easy times like camp and preseason that they hand the keys back to the veteran.
Don’t be blind to reality because you want to make a point. KC sat 3rd on the depth chart his first year. Whatever tho.
As for the notion of second round quarterbacks being bad bets historically, that may be true (although there are guys like Dan Marino who would have been second round quarterbacks in Ken Stabler’s time, so let’s not get carried away). But I expect it is a trend that is going to be on the rise until the NFL institutes some kind of flat cap for rookie picks. The sheer number of guys taken in the second and third rounds is rising markedly in the last few seasons, and it looks to keep going, with Flacco, Brohm, Henne and possibly Woodson all likely destined to go right around there (though one may slip into the mid-to-late first). A lot of teams are making the decision that the damage of guessing wrong on a high first round QB is worse than the benefit of guessing right, and that the difference between the skill sets of the guys who are available in the second round and the guys who are available in the first, particularly after the first QB comes off the board, simply isn’t great enough to offset the cap differences.
seanmac, KC (60.9) had a worse QB rating in his first year of action than most in his current peer group: Boller, Grossman, Griese, Trent Edwards, Tavaris Jackson, Jason Campbell, Derek Anderson, Hasselbeck (70.9), etc.. The only 2 guys who did worse were Joey Harrington and Eli Manning, who you dislike as a QB. I’ll agree that KC is somewhere between Harrington and Eli as a QB. Query as to whether such a QB could compete in the QB-rich AFC.
Also, I would agree about Marino, but the draft history also shows that very few QBs taken in the bottom half of the first round end up being good. Marino’s the only HOFer, with Chad and Ken O’Brien being in the top 5-6 (I thought Tommy Kramer was good and Culpepper was pretty good, too…and I like Jason Campbell, but it’s too early to judge him). Teams may make mistakes at the top of the first round, but if a QB isn’t worth a top 15 pick, then you might as well bottom fish because there’s more good QBs chosen in the 3rd round or later. Also, I forgot to add Favre, who will be the 2nd round’s first HOFer. From pick 16 on through the second round, that leaves Marino and Favre. In the 6th round you have guys like Brady, Bulger, Hasselbeck and Derek Anderson and guys who were decent pros like Rypien, Stan Humphries, and Chuck Clements (just joking). That’s more Super Bowls for the 6th round guys than the 1st round 16th pick through the 2nd round guys.
It is much more likely that a top 15 QB will end up being a great QB (with the hyperbolic risks mentioned by seanmac), but if I were a GM, I’d always think about taking a QB in the later rounds, it’s not as unlikely to strike gold as one would think. Also, if the Jets don’t take Matty Ice, then maybe taking the best QB that falls to the 3rd round or later makes sense (Woodson, Ainge, Flynn, Brennan, Kevin O’Connell, etc.) and it probably wouldn’t spook KC, who spooks easily. Just throwing that out there because I think Flacco will go in the late-first round, Brohm and Henne in the second. They may pan out, but draft history is against them.
I haven’t finished reading all the comments but the mere fact that Kellen Clemens didn’t have the teams best receiver, if not the offense’s best player in Lavernaues Coles, for 3 of his final games, the first 8 games of his starting career as a QB, is a huge factor in his production or lack thereof.
And, considering some comments on this site say that Cotchery is only good because of Coles…well what else was there for Clemens?
I just don’t understand how some people can write off a QB on a team that is missing so many important pieces like a starting WR, LG, RT, FB. These are not just little pieces it is one third of the whole offense.
I don’t think any of the QBs mentioned in comparison have ever had the starting disaster of an offense that KC had. I don’t care who they are or were not having a blocking FB alone can kill a QB but add in a LG and RT and no weapons and you’d be lucky to have any QB left. I say that is a testament to his toughness. That goes for Chad too. Perhaps they wanted to save Chad for this year because they couldn’t bear to see him get killed.
I would never throw a player in Clemens position under the bus so easily with such a completely horrible offense. It’s a travesty to do so and an indictment on the FO to believe he’s that bad.
I get the feeling sometimes that fans say the worst as a counter jinx but I don’t believe in jinxes so I guess that doesn’t apply to me.
I have to correct myself obviously because KC was not starting week 15 and 16 but Coles did miss the games against Was and Dal and was clearly still hurt against Pitt.
The basic premise is the same though. Take away your best offensive weapon, the one that makes the other receivers better, and place your QB behind a line that can’t block and a FB that is inadequate and you can almost guarantee poor stats.
RK, Cleo Lemon did better with less at Miami and I doubt that he ever went into camp and received the number of reps that KC has gotten. I’m just trying to emphasize that, however bad that anyone thinks the Jets were last season, KC’s stats also reflect that he was pretty bad, too. Since past performance is the only inkling that one can have as to future results, I’m very concerned about KC’s ability to be the Jets’ franchise QB. Also, I think most Jets fans who support KC have to realize that cracking a QB rating of 80 (which would only place him in the top 20) would be a major improvement. I do not have a stats database, but in the progression of a QB, such a one-year improvement (from 60.9) has to be exceedingly rare. Now, fans here like to bring up Eli, who has never cracked 80 in his NFL career, but Eli’s path to success is itself rare. Look, I hope KC can match Eli’s results, but I keep wondering how Eli would fair in the AFC.
Sack,
How can you say it’s too early to judge Jason Campbell, who has significantly more playing time then KC, but yet you have already judged KC by his mere 8 games?
Actually Jason Campbell has 20 career starts, he has a career 58% completion, and a career 77 QB rating. Nothing to write home about. But sacks says its too early to judge him.
Ramble you are on a frustrating slippery road. It is pointless to argue with sack. If Campbell is tall enough all of those other stats wont matter.
And it is. Jason Campbell should be a good quarterback, although I worry about the new offense they’re installing for him.
Seanmac,
I think it’s too early to judge Campbell also, and even more so for KC. These guys need time to develop, you can’t get rid of them after only 20 or 8 games.
I totally agree. Young QBs need time with very few exceptions occuring in the modern NFL.
In fairness to sack, he isn’t necessarily advocating getting rid of Clemens, but rather adding serious competition. The team could draft Matt Ryan and see Clemens step up and win the job, just as Drew Brees beat out Philip Rivers or Derek Anderson beat out Brady Quinn (aided in each case by a rookie holdout, which we could also expect from Ryan, in all probability). It would be a tremendous waste of two assets- the number six pick and the cap space devoted to the quarterback position- but it would potentially secure the quarterback position for the indefinite future, and would give the Jets a trading chip in the next few years. It would be much better from a cap standpoint (much, much, much better) to add competition in the second round, but if Ryan is better able to be productive in the next 1-2 seasons, then you could make the argument that it outweighs it).
The jets should ride or die with kellen clemens this season, if he fails than so be it, we address qb next season.
I disagree with Cleo Lemon doing more with less. First off, Ronnie Brown was in his first 3 games and before his injury was averaging 5yds/carry. Jesse Chatman came in and was serviceable with 4yds/carry and I’m glad he’s on the Jets. That right there shows that Miami had a running game so that is more than the Jets can say (TJ averaged 3.6yds/carry).
Statistically speaking Miami was only 2 spots below the Jets in offensive rank, with 22 fewer plays from scrimmage they scored one less point on the year.
I guess Cotchery and McCaerins are better than Booker and Ginn (while Coles was out)? I don’t buy it at all.
Mike- The upcoming quarterback class is considered to be absolutely terrible. You can’t address it next season, at least not as effectively as this season, just as you can’t address it this season as effectively as in 2006.
Geez, when seanmac feels the need to be fair to me, you know somebody has gone overboard. If you really read my post, ramble 914, I said it’s too early to say that Jason Campbell is one of the best QBs EVER to be drafted in the second half of the first round. I have made a judgment as to whether Campbell can play in the NFL, and my judgment is: YES. I think he has all the tools and I think he is progressing nicely as an NFL QB. As to KC, my judgment is that it is unlikely he will be a competent NFL QB and last season was not progress. He may become a star, but he’s dug quite a hole for himself and saying that Cleo Lemon had a better supporting cast doesn’t really help KC’s cause. Cleo is the very definition of “journeyman.” If that’s KC’s peer comparison, then we Jets fans (as opposed to blind KC fans) should be worried, very worried.
seanmac, as for adding a QB in the second round, unless there is a paradigm shift going on in the NFL, draft history shows that it’s unlikely a 2nd rounder will be any good, so why not further defer taking a QB? In the historical context, it may have been a mistake to trade up to get Clemens in the 2nd round, when they could’ve just drafted Croyle (who I’m also not fond of) or Charlie Whitehurst (AJ Smith of the Chargers likes those strapping 6-4 QBs, too) in the 3rd round instead of Schlegel. By choosing Clemens, the Jets left some nice talent on the table in the second round, including: Marcus McNeil, Maurice Jones Drew, Devin Hester, Tony Scheffler, and Greg Jennings. Just tossing that out there because draft strategy fascinates me.
Seanmac – isn’t it too early to accurately say that the 2007 QB class will be terrible? Seems to me that many guys who have a great senior year shoot way up in the draft. In addition, if the team wanted to address the QB situation next year through FA, any idea who might be available?
AJ Smith also likes those strapping 6′1″ quarterbacks like Drew Brees. He was a principal decision maker when the Chargers made that pick. And I would take Kellen Clemens ten times out of ten over Charlie Whitehurst. But let’s not get sidetracked.
I don’t put that much into the history of second round picks for a variety of reasons- one is that what constitutes a second round pick has changed quite a bit, so guys who previously went late first (like Marino) or early third (like Montana) would have been second rounders in this or that format. I think the second or third round are basically the same thing as far as the strategy of QB picks is concerned, and I would certainly include both Croyle and Trent Edwards (as well as guys like Charlie Frye) as examples of teams using the second round QB concept.
I also happen to think there is indeed a paradigm shift going on. In each of the last three drafts, quarterbacks have dropped. Brady Quinn and Aaron Rodgers were frequently graded as the sixth or seventh best prospects in their draft classes and each one of them dropped into the twenties. Matt Leinart was a top five candidate who slid to ten. There is likely going to be the same kind of slide this year. It may happen to Matt Ryan, who I think has a legitimate chance to fall as far as 17th- I don’t expect it to happen, but I would put his draft range as anywhere between 1-17, or it may happen to Brohm, who might have been a mid-first round pick in earlier years and who now may drop out of the round altogether. If teams aren’t very desperate or very sure, they are passing on quarterbacks, and they’re doing it because the evidence is striking that when you draft a big, strapping quarterback at the top of the draft who hasn’t hasn’t been consistently dominant enough to earn that draft slot, it sinks your franchise for years. After the Chargers took Ryan Leaf, they ended up with the #1 overall pick again three years later, (and then three years later after that), and they would have had the #8 pick in the draft the following year had they not traded it away for Leaf. The Browns used the #1 pick in the draft on Tim Couch and had the #1 pick the next year, the #3 pick the year after that, the #7 pick in 2004 and the #3 pick in 2005. The Bengals whiffed on the #3 pick with Akili Smith in 1999 and had the #4, the #4, the #10 and then finally the #1 overall pick as they bottomed out from that disaster. The Texans used the #1 overall on David Carr and were stuck with the #1 overall pick again four years later. The 49ers used the #1 overall on Alex Smith and have picked #6 overall and would have picked #7 overall had they kept their pick. So when these teams reach for their 6′4″ studmuffins, they end up beginning a cycle of high draft picks that is very hard to get out of, and when they do get out of them, it’s usually under new management. So coaches and front offices are bailing, and understandably so. After all, Mel Kiper can say that Trent Dilfer has it and Tim Couch has it and Akili Smith has it and David Carr has it and Joey Harrington has it and keep his job- he’ll be back on ESPN in April insisting that Matt Ryan has it. But the people who make those picks get fired.
seanmac, AJ Smith did not become re-affiliated with the Chargers until 2003:
http://www.chargers.com/team/front_office/aj-smith.htm?&modulePageId=7
Because his tenure with the Bills ended in 2000, I doubt that he had any role in the Chargers taking Brees, who was drafted in April 2001, 2 years before AJ Smith re-joined the team. I was joking about his taking 6-4+ QBs, but your statement is wrong.
I could do a point-by-point rebuttal, but it seems to me your argument proves too much. Then, a team should never take a first-round QB. Dallas takes Aikman and then goes 1-15…does that mean they were wrong to draft him? The teams you mentioned were wrong because they chose poorly. Couch (1) went right before McNabb (2); the Browns chose poorly. I have no idea how FO numbers went, but my guess is McNabb was no. 1 and Cade McNown was no. 2…if that were the case, then Philly would’ve made the error taking McNown. Also, a team that takes a QB at 17 (as opposed to 6) still has a first-round investment in the QB and, if the QB doesn’t pan out, has wasted the opportunity to draft a pro-bowl calibre player.
The more I look into the issue of drafting QB, the more I’m convinced that there are absolute can’t-miss studs and everyone else. In your opinion this is an “everyone else” draft. If that’s the case, then drafting a QB in the first 2 rounds is a mistake like in 2005 or 2002. I think Ryan is a a clear top 5 pick and the class of this draft, like Palmer in ‘03. I didn’t see Big Ben in college, but like I’ve said before, Ryan reminds me of both guys. If I believed, like you, that he didn’t produce numbers in college that merited a top 5 pick, then I’d stay away from any QB until the 3rd round or later because most teams expect starters from the first 2 rounds and it’s unlikely that’s what you’d get from a late-first or second round pick.
My bad- I could have sworn he was on the staff under Butler. But I guess not- we’ll have to credit him as one of the guys who pimped Rob Johnson over Doug Flutie, I guess. :-)
No, the FO numbers were Culpepper #1, McNabb #2, with McCown a distant third. Remember, it’s a two-part equation, starts and completion percentage. Culpepper started 51 games and completed 63.3% of his passes, which graded out tops even after adjusting for the 1-AA factor. McNabb started 45 games and completed 58.4% of his passes, while McCown started 43 games and only completed 55.5% of his passes. Culpepper projected to be a 5.46 DPAR/game QB, and before his knee injury, he was almost hitting it on the dot with 5.20 DPAR/game.
I wouldn’t characterize 2005 as an everything else draft, either. Jason Campbell started 39 games and completed 64.6% of his passes at Auburn. He was a legitimate franchise quarterback candidate. He had a very low number of total attempts at Auburn, and if we find there is a more accurate gauge from a 70/30 start/attempt ratio, for instance, his projection would go down a bit (and Matt Ryan’s would go up a bit), but in any event he was certainly a much better option for San Francisco than Alex Smith. (And Braylon Edwards was a better prospect than either of them.)
I think a clear top five quarterback should project out to about 6.00 per game. That’s for a franchise guy. Of the quarterbacks in the last eleven years, that would be Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers, Matt Leinart and Jason Campbell. Those are players who you take no matter what your situation at quarterback is like. Guys who project at 5.00 a game are probably worth taking unless there are clearly better prospects at other impact positions (left tackle, defensive end, etc.). That would add Carson Palmer, Daunte Culpepper and Byron Leftwich. Guys who have a lower projection than that I wouldn’t touch in the top five or six picks, not with the amount of money the quarterback is likely to command. If you’ve got a 4 DPAR projection, I would use a pick outside of the top ten- Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, Vince Young-but nothing higher, and a guy with a 3 projection is a second round prospect. Ryan is probably going to fall into that 3 range; at best he’ll be a 4, depending on the adjustments. In no way, shape or form did he perform like a top five candidate, even though he has the body of one. Even if you just look at his conventional stats, they are very troubling. He had a 6.91 YPA on his career. The only recent guys with a lower number were Aaron Rodgers, JP Losman, Patrick Ramsey, and Kyle Boller, all of whom were in the sixes. His TD-INT ratio of 56-37 is going to be the worst of any player taken in the first round since 1997, and the when you factor in the second round as well and look at comparisons, you get a list like this- Jay Cutler (59/36), JP Losman (60/27), Quincy Carter (35/25) Kyle Boller (64/48) and Charlie Batch (53/31). It’s much closer (and worse!) to the Joey Harringtons (59/23) and Ryan Leafs (59/24) of the world than to the Ben Roethlisbergers (84/34) and Peyton Mannings (89/33). So either Ryan was struggling in the least conducive environment of any quarterback in the last twelve years-and he wasn’t, as BC is routinely a middle-to-upper level team, and the ACC has been exceptionally weak the last few years; only Jay Cutler really deserves consideration in this respect-or your eyes have been deceiving you, which is understandable- he’s a big, strapping boy with good pocket presence who can make all the throws…he just doesn’t with nearly enough regularity. It’s not even a case like Palmer where a guy puts it all together his senior season after being steady but unspectacular in his first three years, as Ryan’s senior numbers are basically identical to his junior numbers once you account for the inflation in his attempts- his 6.89 YPA is literally identical.
Is it possible that Ryan turns into another Roethlisberger? Yes, it’s possible. I hope he does-and if we draft him, I really hope he does. But it’s a major stretch to expect him to become that kind of player based on just about any measure of his performance during his college career.
The ultimate problem with the Jets taking a QB at 6 is if Clemens wins the starting job and has a season that’s even 3/4 of what Derek Anderson did lats year, then you’re on the hook for $20 million guaranteed. The difference between the Browns situation and the Jets is that Quinn was a late first round pick so his contract is much much smaller. They would have the ability to trade either player. The Jets situation would mirror what happened in San Diego much more closely. They would be forced to part with the more experienced QB because of the contract situation (Rivers’ contract is also comparatively much smaller because top picks even 5 years later are getting paid a lot more. The Ryan pick could become a severe handicap to the Jets flexibility. I don’t advocate the Jets taking Gholston either. I think he’s a beast, but so are plenty of guys in the NFL who weren’t successful. He doesn’t force turnovers which is essential for an edge rusher. The best situation would be for either Chris Long or McFadden to fall into the Jets lap at 6 (probably unlikely) or for a team to want to trade down for a guy like Ryan or Dorsey.
Apparently, Giants GM Jerry Reese has come out and said that Matt Ryan is the #1 prospect in the draft. Coming from the front office that not only thought Eli Manning was better than Phillip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger, but two first rounders and change better…what can I say, I’m sold.
On a different note, Colt Brennan is having hip surgery and could be available in the sixth or seventh round at this point. I’d give strong consideration to taking him at that point. I would also give a long look at Anthony Morelli if he’s still on the board- he’s got the traditional big body and big arm, and he would have a lot of upside for a guy going that late.
seanmac, but Eli won a Super Bowl! :-)
As did Trent Dilfer. I guess Mel Kiper was right after all- Trent had “It!” :-)
Well, Trent is 6-4, so that’s all he needed! Having the height is like being a left-handed reliever in baseball, you can stick around forever. Fourteen years in the NFL, a Super Bowl ring, he hasn’t been the regular starter for a team since he left the Bucs in ‘99 and he’s never cracked the 60% mark for completion pct. That has to be a record! He has “It”…lots of money (14 years of an NFL QB’s salary) for such a dismal body of work. He’s sort of like the bizarro Brett Favre!
I couldn’t understand some parts of this article Does Interest In Matt Ryan Mean The Jets Don’t Like Clemens?, but I guess I just need to check some more resources regarding this, because it sounds interesting.