McShay & Kiper New Mock Drafts Released on 4/1
McShay and Kiper have decended from the Mount to give their new Mock Drafts.
Kiper has Gholston going at #6 to the Jets after Branden Albert going #5 to the Chiefs (WTF!?!) while McShay (who I stood next at Ryan’s Pro Day and mustered up the courage to say five words to) has the Jets taking Gholston as well but following a more traditional path. McShay even states that the Jets organization is “infatuated” with him.
Where the crap has Branden Albert come from? Yes, he’s a great Guard … but top five? Really? That’s a jump of 18 spots from his last mock. I welcome the thought that there are other players now streaking up boards as it could mean (if teams are grading similarly) that there are more choices for the Jets at six.
I’m now officially to the point where I am draft delirious. I’m alternatingly giddy at the thought of certain players, but also starting at every bump in the dark. I’ll try and break the fever and soldier on for you readers …
42 Responses to McShay & Kiper New Mock Drafts Released on 4/1
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Damian says:
Kiper’s reasoning was that Albert has shown promise at OT as well. Also, on ESPN First Take this morning, Albert was a guest, and he said he only started playing football in his Junior year of High School.
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Bent says: Yeah, he could project to RT, that’s been known for a while. He is easily my favorite guard prospect for a few years and until the Faneca pick-up I would have loved to have drafted him with the 36th pick, which was roughly where his stock was at the time, although I had a feeling he would go in the first (not top ten though). As with anyone making the move from G to T, you worry about how he will handle speed rushers though.
I have been thinking for a while that two offensive linemen could go in the first five picks, as this often happens, even when not projected. Levi Brown being a case in point.
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sec108 says:
McShay says, “..and I hear from reliable sources that the organization is infatuated with him. ” Anyone else think that there is no way this orginization has a “reliable” leak that talks to people like McShay? This is all disinformation, if anything it probably means the opposite, if they are letting it leak that they love Gholston I’d be stunned if they actually took him.
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seanmac says:
With guards commanding $7-8 million per year on the open market, there’s no reason for them not to move into the top ten of the draft. Albert would be drafted as a guard with the ability to kick out to tackle as needed. Both Mike Mayock and Charles Davis also have him cracking the top ten- I think Davis has the Patriots taking him, if I’m not mistaken.
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96debacle says:
The way this is going we could very well be looking at Ryan, Gholston and McFadden at #6.
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Bent says:
The Pats make sense as they have reached for interior linemen before and you can afford to do that when you have few needs. The Mankins pick was questioned at the time but they’ve locked down a key position for many years with that one.
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MB927LI says:
Mike Mayock on the NFL network was raving about Brandon Albert’s ability yesterday. From the highlight reels he showed the guy is a beast who gets downfield on running plays and lays people out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the top 15.
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GlockNSoul says:
The funny thing is, and this is the way the mind works – one day we’ll be ecstatic that we could have our choice of McFadden or Gholston. The next day, we’lll be thinking: “Do other teams know soemthing we don’t? Do we really want Gholston or McFadden?”
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Vbsiena24 says:
McShay sucks. He doesn’t do much analysis. He copies off other people’s work and predictions.
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SackDance99 says:
This draft has as many OL as I’ve ever seen projected to go in the first round: Jake Long, Branden Albert, Ryan Clady, Jeff Otah, Chris Williams, and Gosder Cherlious (among others). Now, I would be surprised if so many OL get taken, but maybe the Jets do have a better shot at trading down if a team really wants to draft a top OL candidate, like Clady, Long or Albert. If the Jets can’t get Chris Long or Run DMc and don’t want to draft Matty Ice, I’d rather a trade down to get Harvey, a CB or WR. The second round is looking like it will be stocked with good skill position players, especially if so many O-linemen get drafted in the first.
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GlockNSoul –
You hit it dead on — with so much time to think and analyze this event, you begin to talk yourself in and out of everyone. Two years ago, I knew a month ahead of time that I had the #1 pick of my fantasy football draft, and by the time it actually rolled around, I had almost talked myself out of taking L.T. — who went on to have one of the most amazing years ever (aside, of course, from when he tanked on championship week … grrr….)
But you get the picture. Paralysis by over analysis? I think we’re getting there. . .
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18andOne says:
The problem this year is none of these draft experts are getting any solid inside information from the actual teams at the top of the draft. Parcells is more likely to retire again from football then tell us who the Dolphins will draft or even who they like as a draftee. So no one has any idea what the Dolphins will do with all of their roster holes. With the new GM in Altanta, they’re pretty much in the same boat as the Dolphlins at the #3 pick. At #4 you have Oakland, and nothing they do makes sense, they’ll probably draft Matt Ryan, who knows. Add in the Jets and Pats and 6 and 7, and the experts have no choice but to randomly guess how the draft is going to play out at the top.
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All perfect points. The only play I have yet to talk myself out of is Chris Long………
although he isn’t as explosive as you would like at DE, and if I have to hear the word “motor” used one more time I will shoot my face off.
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no need to talk yourself out of chris long, there is NO chance he makes it to 6.
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I know he won’t last, which is why it is a tragedy he is the only one I can’t talk myself out of.
Here is another point, regarding mock drafts. I am a GIANT draft loser, and check out mocks from like September. The worst is when in like November/December, you have an idea where the team is picking and they have the Jets taking C.Long at like #8. You check the guy out and get psyched, and then he SHOOTS up the draft board.
This happend a couple years ago, when the Jets had 2 picks. The mocks had them taking Robertson in like the 20′s, before he shot up the draft board. The big problem there is that Herm and Bradway must have been looking at the early mock drafts too!!!!!
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At the end of the day, I really don’t see the top of the draft being that confusing. Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey and Jake Long are going 1-2-3, most likely in that order but possibly flipping the latter two. The only mystery is if Oakland will take the player who they should take- Sedrick Ellis or will do the Al Davis thing and take either McFadden or Gholston. Beyond that, the only drama is if the Pats decide to trade up in front of us to take Gholston. The top five is pretty set.
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The Ed(itor) says:
Gholston will be a bigger mistake than DRob so I hope to God the JETS do not take him. Workout warrior does not translate into super star on the field. And Gholston was not a play maker on the field.
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smithsherman says:
I WOULD BE VERY CONTENT IF THEY TRADED THEIR #6 PICK FOR 2 SECOND ROUND PICKS OR A LOW 1ST AND A 3RD.
I would like to see them get SS Hewitt,DE Langford whom they’ve researched,after they draft a top corner.
THE OFFENSE IS SET…MORE THAN MOST REALIZE AND IT IS THE 2 1/2 REMAINING HOLES ON THE DEFENSE…(Defensive End, Cornerback, and perhaps a better safety to accompany Rhodes))
…..that concern me. -
Ed makes a good point. Going into the combine Gholston was projected an early 2nd rounder.
Shows off what a physical stud he is and wham, shoots into the first round.
Only started the last two years. 7 of his 14 sacks last year came against two teams.
You have to wonder if its just his physical gifts (455lbs bench, can squat 405lbs 20 times, has a 4.56 40, 42″ vertical) that got him those 14 sacks and not technique. Which is what he will need going up against the cream of the crop in the NFL.
Other than that this statement by a scout at his pro day makes me wonder:
“Once on the field, though, Gholston was not nearly as impressive. He is so muscular and big that he struggled to bend his knees and sink his hips, which hindered his ability to change directions in drills.”
Not to mention him disappearing in game film. -
No Gholston was a 1st rounder way before the combine. He was projected top 10-15 range for a while back. Before the season ended.
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dpearce says:
McShay’s initial mock draft had Gholston going at 27(http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft08/insider/columns/story?columnist=mcshay_todd&id=3144001), although Lauranitis and Maualuga were two of the LBs selected before him. The guy who Gholston reminds me most of is Mike Mamula, the infamous workout warrior from Boston College who shot up the draft board after the combine. Mamula actually had better college stats, with 17 sacks in a single season at BC. I’m very uncomfortable with where the Jets are at 6. I consider the draft to have 5 elite players (Long, Long, DMC, Dorsey, and Ellis), so the Jets should have one of them available if Ryan goes in the top 5. However, neither DT fits the Jets scheme. I hope they trade up for one of the Longs or move back. They don’t have to trade with Dallas for the two first-rounders to get value back. For example, the 49ers have the 29 and 39 overall, and may want to get back that top pick they lost to the Patriots. If the Jets can pick up another pick in the early second round, they can either sit there or move back up into the bottom of the first.
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I certainly haven’t been singing Gholston’s praises, but I will say this- the more tape you watch of him, the more it looks like he’ll be far more effective in a 3-4 than in a 4-3. With his hand down, he’s liable to get engulfed by linemen, especially on running plays, where he doesn’t show much interest, but it’s a different story when he’s standing up. I would resist comparing him to Merriman, who was a more complete player, but Gholston shows a similar combination of strength and power when he rushes off the edge while standing up.
I don’t know how complete a player Gholston will ever be, but the more I see of him, the more I think he will be an effective rush linebacker. Whether you want to pay #6 overall money to a one-trick pony is up for debate, but it’s a trick that is in demand.
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dakar says:
i dont understand why you guys dislike gholston so much…did he take your lunch money or something…seriously…i agree with vb…he was projected to go in the 1st round before the combine…the combine and his pro-day just shot him up the board as it did with so many other players…some of you guys go back to the michigan game and say he only had 1 sack agaisnt j.long…well thats the only sack long gave up all year…should count for something…i really dont care if we pick long,gholston groves or harvey…as long as we take a passrusher…and from what i read on all these guys gholston seems to be the most consistent,strongest and fastest among all of them…so yeah i would rather have gholston before any of the others but i wont complain who we pick…but 1 player i hope we dont pick is skinny legs…guess who…just my thoughts…
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If there are any takers, trade out of #6. If not, take the BPA who fits the scheme and try to make a trade as the draft goes on.
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dakar- Insert “Bryan Thomas” whenever you see Vernon Gholston. Are you still confused why people are confused. Thomas was quite literally every bit the prospect that Gholston is. He’s bigger, faster and just as strong, and he wasn’t any less productive at the college level.
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JP says:
Back to the Albert thread — its been rumoured that Pittsburgh is hot for Albert; if this and the Pats rumored interest are both true, we could have our trade partner out of the six hole. Though looking at the trade value chart, it’s take all of Pitt’s picks (1-6: 23, 53, 88, 123, 156, 188) to come close to the 1600pt value of the #6. Perhaps more likely is their first, second or third, and next years’ first?
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sean…so your gonna compare gholston to a bust…please dude you can do alot better than that…even though gholston hasn’t taken the field at the nfl level yet im not ever gonna compare him to any1 until he has…especially a bust in b.thomas…where as you already did…and my ? was what do all you guys have agaisnt this guy who has shown the ability to take his play to the next level like the longs dmc and many others…like i always say…these are just my thoughts…im open minded and not confused as you are…im not the 1 saying who’s gonna be a bust and who’s gonna be a future all-pro as you do…so stop fooling youself…no1 knows what any of these players coming out is gonna do in the nfl…we all know the draft is a crap shoot…you never know what your gonna get… 50/50…but like i said in past postings…we need pass rushers…not rb or qb…i’ll take long gholston harvey or groves…but the 1 i like the most is gholston because in 2 years he’s done more than any of them…like it or not these are just my thoughts…peace…
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Mike says:
It’s good to have a nutral mentality Dakar… It doesnt let emotions dictate your decisions. If we could garuntee 2 starters of equal quality as last years draft would/should we do it again? No diss on Stucky but cant really judge him untill he takes the field.
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Dakar,
Gholston had 37 tackles this year. When he wasn’t sacking the quarterback, he did very little. What has caused him to be graded as such a top prospect isn’t his on-the-field play, but his potential- i.e. the fact that he’s big and strong and fast. But there is already a guy on the team who is as big and strong and fast as Gholston, and most Jets fans aren’t so happy to have him there. Does that mean that Gholston is doomed to be another Thomas? No, it doesn’t. But Bryan Thomas was arguably a better college football player than Gholston; at the very least, he wasn’t a worse one. Gholston has the body of a top pick, but he hasn’t performed like one, and that makes him a risky investment.
There’s a lot of shiny new car smell when it comes to the draft. Every pick is a future all-pro, we’re going to address this and that need with this or that player…and then in the end, a third will bust, and another third will turn into average players. You want a pass rusher and Gholston is a pass rusher and therefore he’ll be great, unless of course he isn’t. Rather than just shrugging our shoulders and saying that the draft is a crapshoot, we should try and look for ways to reduce risk.
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DJ says:
Good Point about Gholston SeanMac. In Gholstons defense he played a DE in college. If we take him he’s gonna be playn the 3-4 Defense as a OLB. He’ll make a lot more tackles standing up, then with his hands on the ground. I think he’ll b a great OLB, I’m gonna go out on a limb and say he’ll be an all pro. There’s something about our defensive system that if Your a LB and Your Athletic Youll be Fine. Our linebackers would be Pace, Harris, and Gholston, that would give opposing Offensive Coordinators a Migraine.
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Bent says:
JP – can you imagine? Pittsburgh lets their left guard go to the Jets for nothing and then trades their entire draft to pick up his replacement. That would be awesome!
dakar – I note your comments above about Gholston. Bear in mind that when I reported in detail on VG’s game against OSU, my point wasn’t “VG only had one sack against Long so he sucks” but more to counter someone else’s comments that he dominated Long when actually he was mostly matched up with someone else (Steve Schilling).
Long (a good but far from elite pass protector) handled him really well, VG didn’t get close to making a play when he was up against him, but then he broke through for a sack towards the end (and as I said at the time, one sack per game over the course of his career would make him a hall of famer!)
To reiterate my views on VG – there’s more to him than a pure speed rusher, but he is raw and I don’t think he would make much of an immediate impact. I am also not 100% convinced that he will be a great OLB. I don’t see him as great value at 6, but probably at 10-12, so since it may fit a need it wouldn’t be an awful pick for the Jets, but there are several other guys I would rather have, mainly based on their consistent levels of production (of course many of these may be gone by the time we pick).
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When you strongly advocate a player to be taken in the draft, you have to expect that the choice will be criticized. I’ve pounded the table on Ryan and gotten pelted with just as many (or more) negative comments.
I just don’t believe that Gholston is a “need” pick, especially since the Jets now have Pace. The Jets have BT, who can go back to the weak side and replace Hobson, who was simply too short for the position (I still think Hobson should get a shot at ILB and compete with Barton). Also, the Jets have Bowens, who I like a lot, has very good pass rush skills and can come in on obvious passing downs. Not to mention, Harris had 5.5 sacks in half a season.
Combine those facts with the concerns that many scouts have with Gholston’s overall football ability and he becomes as risky a pick (or riskier) than any of the other top 10 candidates. I think Harvey will be the better pro, he’s bigger and a better tackler. If there’s anyone who is like Merriman, it’s Harvey. I just look at Gholston’s body, especially that thin waist and lower body, and wonder whether he will have any pass rush move other than the edge rush. NFL LTs can handle edge rushers, it’s the guys who also can bull rush, swim, club, etc. who end up being all-pros.
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Here’s a good article on the art of the pass rush:
http://www.expertvillage.com/article/5412_football-pass-rush-2.htm
If anyone has a link showing that VG does any pass rush move, other than coming off the edge, I’d like to see it.
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RK says:
I agree Sack. While if Vern is picked I’d be interested to see how the Jets use him I think that any pro worth his salt has multiple “moves” other than trying to out fast the tackle. Just like in NBA or MBL all one trick ponies are exposed.
If you can’t bull rush might as well give up. Also, if you aren’t making plays behind the line, don’t expect to make them for a loss.
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I’m not adverse to a Gholston pick at this point- as I said, he does look to me like he’ll be more effective standing up than he was as a DE (if I was a 4-3 team, I’d be running in the other direction). I prefer a more well-rounded player, but I do think Gholston will be effective rushing the passer out of the 3-4, which is what you would be paying him for. But I think the Gholston bandwagon is getting carried away about just how good of a prospect he is or how major an impact he is likely to have. The only reason why I think Gholston is a viable pick at six is because of the weakness of the rest of the top of the draft/the bad fits between several of the elite prospects and the Jets. John Abraham, Julius Peterson, Shawne Merriman, Demarcus Ware- these guys were all better prospects, and they all went a good 8-12 picks later than Gholston figures to go. The whole idea of playing a 3-4 was to get better value on players who didn’t fit into other defenses, but the way it is playing out, we’re going to end up reaching and getting worse value on account of the defense.
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SackDance,
I think this video shows a pretty good variety of moves, including the bull rush:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YE2y_ypR9wQ
VG has said in interviews that, because he came to OSU with more experience as a weightlifter and wrestler than as a football player, he actually defaulted to the bull rush his first season on the field. Then he spent last off-season honing the outside speed rush and swim technique. Considering how new he is to all rush techniques, I think it’s way too early to say he’s a one-trick pony.
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ramble914 says:
There is a big difference btwn B. Thomas and V. Gholston coming out of college. B. Thomas played for Birmingham, Gholston played for OSU. B. Thomas should never have been #22 overall (another Bradway gem). I think Gholston will be a very good OLB in the 3-4. I just don’t see how he cannot be, 6′-4″, 260 lbs. and runs a 4.60- 40. 22 sacks 38 tackles for loss the last 2 years. Combime him with Pace and Thomas and we’ll have a excellent pass rush.
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Bent says:
Thanks for the link, sack. As I’ve said before, I expected VG to be a one-trick pony and was surprised to find that he wasn’t. That doesn’t mean he won’t be shut down by the top pass protectors in the early part of his career though.
I wanted to address your comment about Harris. I was absolutely staggered that Harris was able to get 5.5 sacks in half a season, when I didn’t view him as a great blitzer. I wonder if that was a blip or will he be able to replicate it? It was far more than Vilma ever produced from that position, but in college he only had 4 in his whole career!
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And by the way, I love Harvey too, and I don’t understand why he’s not universally thought of as a top-10 lock. But I think VG has a lot going for him as well. Here’s a little side-by side comparison for those two guys:
Number of different games with at least one sack:
Harvey: 7 in ’06, 5 in ’07
VG: 7 in ’06, 7 in ’07Number of sacks vs “quality opposition” (simply defined as BCS-conference teams who finished at or above .500 ):
Harvey: 9 in ’06, 5.5 in ’07
VG: 3 in ’06, 10 in ’07Obviously, stats can’t tell the whole story for defensive players. My point is simply that this notion that Gholston’s raw potential hasn’t translated to the field is misguided. If anything, I wonder how great he could be in 3-4 years if he’s already accomplished this much without fully understanding technique.
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Bryan Thomas played quite a few games against NFL prospect linemen. He singlehandedly destroyed a Florida State line that sent four players to the pros. And the Big Ten doesn’t exactly have a proud history of sending big time pass rushers into the NFL.
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p4p, not to quibble, but nearly all of the sacks were edge rushes. A couple of times he blew past an RB, a couple of times he was blocked but the QB got flushed and VG got an easy sack. I saw one potential bull rush, but it’s a lot harder to bull rush a 6-6, 320 lb NFL LT. There’s no doubt VG is fast and with the Jets’ improved DL, along with Pace and Harris, maybe VG could translate his speed into sacks, but I didn’t see anything to convince me that he’d be a superior pass rusher, in the LT, Derrick Thomas, Merriman or Ware mode. The no. 6 pick is pricey for VG’s skill set.
Also, while your Harvey/VG comparison was interesting, it should be noted that in 2007, OSU had the no. 1 defense; Florida was 41. When Harvey’s numbers were better in 2006, Florida had the no. 6 best defense, and OSU was at no. 2. VG has had the better team defense around him.
Bent, Harris had as good a rookie season for an LB that I’ve ever seen by a Jet. I have no idea what his 40 speed was, but they should’ve timed him chasing a ball carrier. He has great closing speed and delivers a real hard hit. For all the D-Rob detractors, one of the reasons Harris was so good at blitzing was because in the pass rush D-Rob had to be double-teamed. Harris and Pace form a nice foundation, but the Jets still need to upgrade ILB and get more out of the weak-side OLB. I still think BT can do the job. Also, BT and Freeney were the top DE picks coming out of college and many draft boards had BT first. So, it wasn’t like BT wasn’t highly regarded.
latest talk has alberts moving to tackle and having more upside there than other prospects