TJB 2008 NFL Mock Draft Muncher 6.0
The 6.0 version of the TJB Mock Draft Muncher is now out!
There are some slight changes to the top of the chart, as you can see that Vernon Gholston is now averaging above where the Jets would pick.
Derrick Harvey – Derrick Harvey who’s been lurking in the weeds seems now to be a top 10 draftee, but just barely. With so many CBs at the top of mock drafts, it seems mockers enthusiam has settled some on the position as we’ve seen players like Mike Jenkins dropping like a stone in many mock drafts (he was averaging in the top ten just over a month ago).
See more emerging storylines after the jump …
Malcolm Towards the Middle – Malcolm Kelly continues his free fall, and he is now very close to other receivers like DeSean Jackson and Limas Sweed. If in fact the Jets are looking for a WR in the second round, they might strike gold.
Phat Albert – Someone knows something about Branden Albert. A player who couldn’t break the top twenty just a few weeks ago is now in the top 10 of Kiper, Mayock and Kirwan’s mock drafts. In my mind, this has to involve the Patriots somehow getting this information out there.
26 Responses to TJB 2008 NFL Mock Draft Muncher 6.0
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The Ed(itor) says:
If Ryan is available, JETS will trade down with Ravens who need an over hyped and over rated Boston product. Trade down to 8 for another pick and take a WR here. That is assuming McFadden is already gone. Take Brohm in round 2. Much better QB.
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10yardbomb says:
The Ed,
Think about it. Why would the Ravens trade up for Matt Ryan. To skip the patriots? Do you really think the pats are in the market for a QB with their first round pick? The only possibility i see is if dorsey or ellis are around at 6. Then maybe we would get some offers (saints)
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10yardbomb, Patriots are known for liking to trade down, why wouldn’t they trade down in this case to allow someone to select Ryan in front of Ravens?
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ramble914 says:
I don’t think KC will take VG for two reasons, 1- not enough value at #5, and not a position of need. KC’s three biggest needs are OL, DL, and QB. KC will take whoever Atlanta dosen’t, which will be either M. Ryan or G. Dorsey. The only OL worthy of the top 5 is J. Long and he will go either 1 or 2. Atlanta will take Dorsey or Ryan; Oakland will take McFadden; KC will take whoever Atl. dosen’t Ryan od Dorsey and the Jets will take Gholston.
There is a chance that KC could take Ellis if Doresy goes to Atl. That would leave us with the choice of VG or MR, in that case I think we could trade down to 8 and pick up Baltimores 2nd round pick. At 8 we should take McKelvin or Cromartie, then package our two 2nd rounders and get back in the 1st round and take Derrick Harvey, who I think can be an excellent OLB in the 3-4.
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cbiscuit says:
As 10yb pointed out – no way BAL will trade up to get in front of NE, who would never take a QB in the 1st round, even if they needed one. Both CIN and NO covet the DLs, so, as pointed out – that could be where we see some action.
It would actually make more sense for NE to trade up to get in front of us and snag Gholston. KC would love to trade down, and if they are targetting Ryan they can still get him at 7 and gain an extra pick. Gholston is a physical freak, and the most highly coveted DE/hybrid OLB in the draft. Some mocks even have MIA taking him at #1.
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sec108 says:
ramble, I agree with most of what you said, except Harvey, if you believe the latest muncher Harvey is going near the top 10, so if the jets really want him they had better take him in the first round after trading down instead of grabbing a corner. I like the idea of packaging the 2 high second rounders to get back into the 1st round, but #36 (540 pts) and #38(520 pts) could get them as high ad #15 (1050 pts), but this is flawed as well since the Ravens pick in the 1st, #8 is worth 200 pts less than the #6, so it would likely only cost them a 3rd rounder to move up. Complicating matters more, the Ravens don’t have a 3rd round pick to trade.
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billvv says:
I don’t see how you’re going to get the Ravens to move up two spots. They would have to move up three if they thought we’d take MR. Pats aren’t going to get a QB, so what’s the point for the Ravens? He’s cheaper at 8!
As to the muncher. I think you just take off the teams and position the 1 through 32 players because you aren’t averaging the pick by team. And, while we’re at it, why fill with 48.5? Why not 33?
For those who don’t like averages, Draft Tek allows you to pick your team and it lists the picks for your team across all their mockers.
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Rambo says:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this more to show the averaeg ranking of a player and not a projection of where they will go on average? In my opinion this isn’t intended to project Ryan to the Jets on average, it is intended to show that he is the 6th highest rated prospect based on mock draft projections.
I did like Rasmus’s idea though. I think it would be insightful.
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To those who have pointed out that Baltimore would not trade up to 6 to land Ryan, I agree, my logic is flawed. If Ryan made it past us at #6 they would not have to move up because NE would not take him and he would fall to Baltimore at #8.
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Doctor K says:
All the speculation about the Draft is driving me nuts. I refuse to speculate any more and just enjoy the show on April 26th!
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Bent says: Don’t get too over-excited. It’s just a tool.
…but then aren’t we all?
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seanmac says:
The problem with Harvey is that if neither the Jets nor Pats take him, he’s not coming off the board before pick 19 or so, which means that he’s not really an elite prospect, he just fits the defense that two teams in the top ten happen to play.
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The speculation is the interesting part. To me, the question for the Jets is what they do if neither Gholston or DMac are available when they pick. Unless we trade down, we could be faced with a choice between guys like Dorsey, Ellis or Ryan as BPA. If we take Ryan (or Brohm etc. on the first day) it will tell us how the FO feels about KC. If we draft for need, should we reach for guys like McKelvin, Cromartie, Harvey or Rivers at this spot?
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Ramble 914–NE could trade down, and let a team that needs Mr. Ice move ahead of the Ravens.
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I am not opposed to taking Mckelvin at #6, if he is good enough at #7 then he is good at 6. If we took him we would have a real good CB tandem and secondary in general. As much as I want Gholston, he is not a big need, our starting LBs would be Pace, Harris, Barton, and Thomas; thats a pretty good LB corp. That is why I think a CB opposite Revis would make sense. I would not pass up Gholston or McFadden to take a CB, but if both of them were off the board when our turn came, I could see us taking McKelvin
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Agree. Even with Pace we lack a stud pass rusher though, so if we fill the need with McKelvin then Quentin Groves, or Cliff Avril might be options in round 2. Bruce Davis out of UCLA is climbing the board as well.
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cbiscuit,
I am not so sure that we would not have a good passrush without adding someone. I think B. Thomas returning to his natural weak OLB spot makes him a force to reckon with. Don’t forget D. Harris had 5 sacks last year and Pace can rush also. Thats not even considering blitzing K. Rhodes.
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SackDance99 says:
I hope the Muncher ends up being true and the Jets take Matt Ryan, but even if they take someone else, I don’t think they should take Brohm in the 2nd round. Assuming that Ryan goes in the first round and Flacco goes late in the first (maybe the Jets trade up to get him?), I think the Jets should think QB in the 3rd round because guys like Ainge, Booty, Woodson and maybe even Brohm will fall to the 3rd round or lower. The more film I see on Flacco, the more I like his arm…he has a real cannon and good accuracy. Since he fits the prototype mold, my guess is that some team will trade up into the late first round to snag him.
Also, here’s a thought: Chicago has been rumored to want a QB (maybe Ryan?) and has dealt with the Jets before. The Jets swap pick 6 for 14 and get the Bears 2nd rounder, no. 44. It almost works under the draft value chart and IMO there’s not much difference in talent from the first to second round for what the Jets need.
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Sack, I don’t think you’ll see Brohm fall to the 3rd, too many QB needy teams this year, he will go late 1st /early 2nd like Flacco and Henne. If the jets don’t take a QB with their 2nd rounder the next time they can think about it is the 4th, they do not have a 3rd pick (as of yet).
Like the idea of trading with Bears at 14, or even Carolina at 13, either one could do the deal for their 2nd round pick, and it would give us the ammo to move up into the late 1st for a QB if we so desired.
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Mike says:
If we draft ryan wouldnt that leave us with too much money tied into the QB position? I say QB next year and find ANYBODY to compete with woody at right tackle and can compete with Brick next year at left.
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sec 108, Brohm could end up being the fourth QB chosen behind Ryan, Flacco and Henne. So, maybe late 2nd round? I’m not a Brohm or Henne fan, so I’d rather take guys like Ainge, Woodson, Booty or Brennan (who I read had a good pro day and actually weighed in at 218 lbs), all of whom should be 4th rounders and later. I even liked what I saw from Matt Flynn for a real late 2nd day flyer.
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I read that Sedrick Ellis was impressive at USC’s pro day, including a 5.00 40 (a great time for man his size). The other hope that the Jets have is that some other team falls in love with Ellis (or Dorsey if he slips to 6) and wants to trade up.
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Bent says:
Ellis had dropped to 297 though. He ran a 5.25 at 308 in Indy.
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Apparently, Ellis weighed in as heavier than Dorsey (from McShay on ESPN Insider):
Ellis also delivered a strong day after a subpar showing at the combine. He improved his 40 time from 5.32 at the combine to 5.00 on campus — quicker than No. 1 DT Glenn Dorsey (5.14) despite being 12 pounds heavier than Dorsey — and Ellis notched seven more reps on the bench. In addition, Ellis showed the same kind of hand speed, mental toughness and stamina Dorsey displayed at LSU’s pro day. In fact, we have never seen Kansas City defensive line coach Tim Krumrie work out a player as hard as he worked Ellis.
So hard, actually, that USC head coach Pete Carroll stormed over and used some colorful language to let Krumrie know some drills Kumrie used would never be run at USC’s pro day again. Apparently, he didn’t think they had any value in terms of evaluating a football player’s skill set. Still, there is now much speculation that the Chiefs could take Ellis at No. 5 overall. We still think that Dorsey is the top defensive tackle prospect in this class based on film evaluations, but his pro day performance solidified Ellis as the No. 2.
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Bent says:
If that’s correct, sack, then I apologise. My information was based on NFL.com’s pro day page, which said Ellis was 298 and Dorsey was 297.
However, I’m inclined to believe McShay considering the fact that the NFL.com page also has the following hilarious blunders:
CB Jonathan Wilhite was apparently 6’9″
OL Demetrius Bell ran the forty in 4.18 and 5.20
Johnny Dingle had a 29.5 inch “virtacle” leap.
I would like to see a draft based on the statistical mode of the draft positions instead of the average. The average have the built in problem that if a player is e.g. projected as 6 and 10 in most mocks then he will be projected as 8 on average, even though he is not a need for team 8. On the other hand statistical mode will project him as either 6 or 10, which is much more likely.
As I see it the way to do it is to take the most common Miami overall selection and send him to Miami, then remove that player for the list. Then find the most common Rams selection still in the list and send him to St. Louis, and remove him from the list, and so on. I suspect this to hit much more accurate.