The Thursday Top 10: A Decade of Drafts
With the draft only a week and change away, I thought it might be fun to look back over the last ten years and how the Jets have fared. And rather than watch that abysmal YouTube clip of Jets draft day blunders (sorry, I won’t link to that painful reminder), I decided to come up with a simple quantitative ranking system to help evaluate the drafts.
Now I openly admit up front that this is hardly scientific — I’m sure seanmac and his pals at Football Outsiders would cringe if they were to look over the “numbers” I’ve crunched. My general idea was to come up with a numeric system where I could rate each draft class with a draft score, then be able to rank the draft the classes accordingly. I gave points for a player if he became a starter, and for every year he started. Ditto for a player who became a backup. I also gave a bonus for players that were second-day picks that became starters and for those who are “better” players (i.e. made All Pro or went to a Pro Bowl).
“Prof. R in CT’s Patented Olde-Tyme Simple Draftee Ranking System”
- Draftee becomes a regular starter: 5 points; +1 point every for every year remains a Jets starter; +.5 point for every year a starter for another team.
- Draftee stays in the league more than a season, either as a backup or special teamer: 2 points; +.5 point for each year as a Jet; +.25 for another team.
- Later round draftee (after 3rd round) becomes a starter: +1 point.
- All Pro or Pro Bowl: +1 point.
After I got the score for each draftee, I figured out what the potential score could have been — for example, the maximum potential score for Dorian Boose, a 1998 second-round pick, was 16 points: 5 for being a starter, 10 more if he had started for 10 years (10 x 1) and 1 more if he had made a Pro Bowl. Boose actually got 3.75: 2 points for being a backup, 1.5 for 3 years with the Jets (3 x .5) and an .25 for 1 year with Washington.
I then figured out, based on draft class size, the maximum potential score for each class. I then simply added up the actual individual player scores, divided them into the potential scores and viola – a draft class percentage score.
Got all that? (It all made sense when I started, I swear!) Okay, here’s how the last 10 Jets drafts grade out …
10. Class of 1998 (GM Bill Parcells)
DE Dorian Boose (2) – 3.75 points
DB Scott Frost (3) – 4 pts
DB Kevin Williams (3) – 3.5 pts
OT Jason Fabini (4) – 14.5 pts
LB Casey Dailey (5) – 0 pts
OG Doug Karczewski (5) – 0 pts
TE Blake Spence (5) – 3.25 pts
T Eric Bateman (5) – 0 pts
DE Eric Ogbogu (6) – 4.25 pts
WR Chris Brazzell (6) – 2.5 pts
FB Dustin Johnson (6) – 0 pts
TE Lawrence Hart (7) – 0 pts
1st-3rd rounder max pt per player – 16 points; 4th+ max – 17 points
Total draft class max – 201 points
Class score: 35.75 points = 17.8 %
Notes: Parcells famously left the Patriots because they wouldn’t let him “buy the groceries” — judging by this draft, the Patriots may have been wise to do so. Only one legitimate NFL starter (Fabini) out of twelve picks is dismal, even without doing the math. Then again, the team was 12-4 in 1998, so maybe they didn’t need the depth.
9. Class of 1999 (GM Bill Parcells)
OG Randy Thomas (2) – 11.5 points
OG David Loverne (3) – 7.25 pts
DT Jason Wiltz (4) – 3 pts
DB Jermaine Jones (5) – 2.75 pts
LB Marc Megna (6) – 2.25 pts
OL J.P. Machado (6) – 4.5 pts
OT Ryan Young (7) – 10 pts
LB J.J. Syvrud (7) – 0 pts
1st-3rd rounder max pt per player – 15; 4th+ max – 16
Total draft class max – 126 points
Class score – 41.25 points = 32.7%
Notes: A step up from the class of ‘98, obviously Parcells was more interested in building the offensive line and defensive front seven coming off the great playoff. If not for the discovery of the Young in the 7th round, this class would be nearly a complete loss. I guess this was a draft for depth, but it looks like it sunk.
8. Class of 2005 (GM Terry Bradway)
K Mike Nugent (2) – 8 points
DB Justin Miller (2) – 8 pts
DT Sione Pouha (3) – 3 pts
DB Kerry Rhodes (4) – 9 pts
DB Andre Maddox (5) – 0 pts
RB Cedric Houston (6) – 3 pts
TE Joel Dreessen (6) – 2.75 pts
WR Harry Williams Jr. (7) – 2.75 pts
1st-3rd rounder max pt per player – 9; 4th+ max – 10
Total draft class max – 77 points
Class score – 36.5 points = 47.4 %
Notes: An odd class. Clearly, Kerry Rhodes was a late-round gem, but the other high scores are on technicalities — Nugent and Miller get starter points as both are (were?) at the top of the depth chart for special teams. But really, Rhodes is the only true every down player from this group, although Pouha has seen his stock rise as of late. Overall though, hardly an impressive lot.
7. Class of 2003 (GM Terry Bradway)
DT Dewayne Robertson (1) – 10 points
LB Victor Hobson (2) – 9.5 pts
FB BJ Askew (3) – 7.5 pts
DB Derek Pagel (5) – 3 pts
DE Matt Walters (5) – 2.5 pts
QB Brooks Bollinger (6) – 3.5 pts
OG Dave Yovanovits (7) – 2.75 pts
1st-3rd rounder max pt per player – 11; 4th+ max – 12
Total draft class max – 81 points
Class score – 38.75 points = 47.8 %
Notes: Another “meh” draft with two solid starters in Robertson and Hobson, and reliable fullback in Askew. Marginally better than ‘05 because Bollinger seems to be a solid backup. Of course, many would argue the picks they gave up to get Robertson haven’t been worth it, but in Bradway’s defense, a lot of teams were itching to get him and at the time, it seemed like a good move.
6. Class of 2007 (GM Mike Tannenbaum)
DB Darrelle Revis (1) – 6 points
LB David Harris (2) – 6 pts
OT Jacob Bender (6) – 2.5 pts
WR Chansi Stuckey (7) – 0
1st-3rd rounder max pt per player – 7; 4th+ max – 8
Total draft class max – 30 points
Class score – 14.5 points = 48.3 %
Notes: Obviously, it’s too early to tell how successful this class will be over the long haul, but there’s something to be said for quality over quantity — if half your draft class steps in and immediately becomes starters, then statistically, that’s going to help. A healthy Stuckey might also improve this class dramatically in the next few years, as will Pro Bowl trips for Baby Lockdown and The DH.
5. Class of 2002 (GM Terry Bradway)
DE Bryan Thomas (1) – 9.5 points
DB Jon McGraw (2) – 4.25 pts
TE Chris Baker (3) – 9.5 pts
DT Alan Harper (4) – 2.5 pts
OG Jonathan Goodwin (5) – 4.5 pts
1st-3rd rounder max pt per player – 12; 4th+ max – 13
Total draft class max – 62 points
Class score – 30.25 points = 48.7 %
Notes: If you get two out of five guys to be decent NFL starters (Thomas and Baker) and cultivate another two to be decent backups (McGraw and Goodwin), then this isn’t too shabby a draft, I guess. Hardly the makings of a championship ball club, but technically 80 percent of the guys are legitimate NFL players.
4. Class of 2004 (GM Terry Bradway)
LB Jonathan Vilma (1) – 10 points
DB Derrick Strait (3) – 3.25 pts
WR Jericho Cotchery (4) – 9 pts
OT Adrian Jones (4) – 7.5 pts
DB Erik Coleman (5) – 9.5 pts
OT Marko Cavka (6) – 0 pts
LB Darrell McClover (7) – 3 pts
DE Trevor Johnson (7) – 3.5 pts
RB Derrick Ward (7) – 3 pts
DB Rashad Washington (7) – 4 pts
1st-3rd rounder max pt per player – 10; 4th+ max – 11
Total draft class max – 108 points
Class score – 52.75 points = 48.8 %
Notes: What’s the old saying? Throw enough mud at the wall and some of it is bound to stick? Well, with 10 picks, they got some very good players early (Vilma, Cotchery) and some decent players late (Coleman, Ward), although neither is with the team any more. Still, 8 out of 10 are still in the league four years later, which is not too shabby when the average career is a little over four years.
3. Class of 2006 (GM Mike Tannenbaum)
OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson (1) – 7 points
OT Nick Mangold (1) – 7 pts
QB Kellen Clemens (2) – 6.5 pts
LB Anthony Schlegel (3) – 2.75 pts
DB Eric Smith (3) – 3 pts
WR Brad Smith (4) – 3 pts
RB Leon Washington (4) – 8 pts
TE Jason Pociask (5) – 2.5 pts
DB Drew Coleman (6) – 3 pts
DT Titus Adams (7) – 0 pts
1st-3rd rounder max pt per player – 8; 4th+ max – 9
Total draft class max – 85 points
Class score – 42.75 points = 50.1 %
Notes: In his first draft, Tannanbaum had a very nice haul, getting four starting-caliber players in Ferguson, Mangold, Clemens and Washington, and also a pair of players who still may end up being starters in the Smiths (Brad and Eric). If Coleman ends up as the nickel back, then that’s seven legitimate players out of ten, and two — Pocaisk and Schelegal who may hang around the NFL for a few years as special team/role players. Not bad for a first go-round.
2. Class of 2001 (GM Terry Bradway)
WR Santana Moss (1) – 11 points
RB Lamont Jordan (2) – 8.5 pts
RT Kareem McKenzie (3) – 10 pts
DB Jamie Henderson (4) – 3.5 pts
DT James Reed (7) – 9 pts
OL Tupe Peko (7) – 2.5 pts
1st-3rd rounder max pt per player – 13; 4th+ max – 14
Total draft class max – 81 points
Class score – 44.5 points = 54.9 %
Notes: A surprisingly fruitful class, mainly because Herm Edwards’ love for 7th-rounder James Reed, who started for him in New York and in Kansas City. If Reed never starts, he scores 5, the group then grades out at 50%, which pushes them back a slot to #3. Jordan grades out lower because he never was a starter for the Jets.
1. Class of 2000 (GM Bill Parcells)
DE Shaun Ellis (1) – 14 points
DE John Abraham (1) – 13 pts
QB Chad Pennington (1) – 11.5 pts
TE Anthony Becht (1) – 11.5 pts
WR Laveranues Coles (3) – 12.5 pts
WR Windrell Hayes (5) – 3 pts
DB Tony Scott (6) – 3 pts
DT Richard Seals (7) – 0 pts
1st-3rd rounder max pt per player – 14; 4th+ max – 15
Total draft class max – 115 points
Class score – 68.5 points = 59.6 %
Notes: No real shocker here — after a two years of horrid draft classes, Parcells finally nails one, cashing in big time with five very-good-to-excellent NFL players. You got an All Pro in Abraham, and he, along with Ellis and Coles went to a few Pro Bowls. Pennington obviously got the team to the playoffs more than once. Rounds 5-7 were near fruitless, but with such a haul in the first round plus Coles, there’s very little question this is the best class in the last decade.
In conclusion, two things –
1. Yes, I penalized draft classes for players that went on to play for other teams. I thought they should receive less credit if they didn’t contribute to the organization as much as a player that stayed.
2. I’m sure I could’ve been a lot more picky about the numbers and the values, but I wanted to keep this fairly simple – although, truth be told, I kept making adjustments and this took me waaaay longer than I expected it would. Like three hours longer. Ugh.
Anyway, as always, I’m sure you all won’t hesitate to let me know what you think. And I absolutely know that someone more statistically inclined out there could create a better system. Maybe next time! Oh, and I know that I probably could’ve just eyeballed all these classes and come up with the same list, but where’s the fun — and debate — in that?
A quick thanks to Professor Bent for his input.
Filed under: Opinion/R in CT
What ever happened to Derrick Straight? He was supposed to be a steal we got in the 3rd round. He had late round 1 early round 2 talent written on him. It’s a shame.
R in CT, excellent job with this. It lays out the draft picks by year nicely and gives some context to the quality of the players.
Derrick Strait was horrible, and never really amounted to anything. There was a reason why he dropped from 1st-2nd to 3rd (he sucks)
Perhaps what your math needs, to better refine the impact of these classes, is a better weighting system. I’d argue that there should be greater weight to making the ProBowl, as it indicates the player is not just a regular starter but a premier player at his position; similarly, it should increase as the player makes multiple PB’s. Dwight Freeney and Shaun Ellis are both regular starters drafted in the mid-first round, but there’s a world of difference between them.
Similarly, I’d argue for a weighting that rewards teams significantly for finding productive players in the later rounds, but penalizes them for failing to do so in the first two rounds. With the cap as it is, you absolutely must hit on your Day One picks or you won’t survive; it’s the only way to keep enough quality talent on your roster without going into cap hell. A first round bust double penalizes your team, because you’re paying big bucks to a non-productive player, and you have to pay big bucks to someone else to play his position with adequacy (and often, you also waste draft picks in further fortifying the position.)
Finding Kerry Rhodes in the 4th round (or Tom Brady in the 6th) helps your team immensely, because it gives you a quality starter at below-market rates (and with a fairly low opportunity cost of acquisition). But, missing on a Dorian Boose can be monumentally disastrous, because it leads to fixes and refixes and refixes.
Quite a project R_in_CT. Really excellent work.
I agree with Tommies’ comment as far as giving more credit for finding late round gems.
You also have to factor in when multiple picks were used to draft a player, (i.e. D-Rob: 2 #1s and a #4).
Is it just me or does the 2001 draft seem to be a great draft we used to stock other teams. All four starters from the draft are currently starting on other teams.
I think the Jets draft just fine, their problem has been in retaining that draft talent. We consistently bleed players like Randy Thomas, Kareem McKenzie, Santana Moss, Jason Ferguson, James Farrior. I’m also fairly sure that Vilma will go back to being a stud, while Robertson (when we finally get rid of him) and Victor Hobson will be solid contributers to their new teams.
And of all those players, only Randy Thomas was handed what at the time seemed to be an insane contract. We could have offered competitive and cap friendly contracts to all of those other former Jets, but the team seems to have a problem evaluating their own talent.
I think if we placed players back on the team who originally drafted them, the Jets would have a pretty strong team.
Think of an offensive line of Ferguson, Randy Thomas, Mangold, Moore, McKenzie with Fabini as a backup is pretty solid. We’d have Pennington and Clemens battling it out at QB. Jordan and Washington at RB. Baker and Becht at TE. Coles, Cotchery, Moss at WR.
On defense you’d have a front lone of Robertson, Ferguson, and Ellis. Linebackers of Abraham, Harris, Hobson, Vilma, Thomas and Farrior. A secondary of Revis, Coleman x2, Rhodes and Miller.
The defense probably isn’t any worst than it is today, but the offense, especially the offensive line, would be far better.
The Jets need to keep drafting well, but they also need to properly evaluate their own players and keep the good ones.
Great job R in Ct, that must have been a lot of work.
The problem with the Jets clearly isnt drafting talent. Since 2000, the jets have drafted 6 pro bowlers: Ellis, abraham, coles, santana moss, vilma, justin miller-kr. and that doesnt include chad pennington who took the jets to multiple playoffs and won games. Then there are a bunch of other good players who didnt make pro bowls, but were good starters for us: Kareem Mckenzie, bryan thomas, chris baker, D-Rob, Hobson, askew, cotchery,erick coleman,D’brick, eric smith, brad smith and leon washington. Then there are a bunch of players who are clearly future pro bowlers: Nick Mangold, Kerry rhodes, Darrelle Revis, and David Harris. So, if you ask me I think the jets draft great talent. I would even go far enough to say that since 2000, the jets have drafted better talent than 75% of the teams in this league. Our problem is too much of our talent we either trade, or dont re-sign. Abraham, Becht, Lamont Jordan, Kareem McKenzie, D-Rob, Vilma, Santana Moss. I am aware that some of those scenarios worked out for us (trading abraham in essence for Mangold, and Moss was used to get coles back). But we need to keep our good young players, which was shown by re-signing rhodes, but lets make sure we re-sign Revis and Harris as well when the time comes.
good job R.
kinda reinforces what I thought… Bradway is fairly competent at the draft and he’s taken too much grief for his decisions, especially when compared to some other teams recent track records.
dont always believe the hype.
Kareem McKenzie, Randy Thomas, David Loverne, Ryan Young, Jason Fabini.. .along with Mangold and Ferguson and possibly Pete Kendell (BEST LINE IN FOOTBALL) … why weren’t we paying our lineman big bucks we would be sitting in the playoffs every year…. at least the signing of Alan Faneca will open the eyes of the Jets for the future to break this dreaded habit
Overall we Drafted some solid Players throughout this decade just couldn’t keep half of them
They couldn’t have afforded to resign all those guys under the cap. You simply have to keep restocking your offensive line with cheap and/or young players. They just did a lousy job with guys like Jones, Cavka, Ethan Brooks and Clarke.
I’d agree they probably should have focused more attention on it though. They never seem to use second day picks on linemen, just picking up a bunch in round eight (ie UDFAs) and seeing what sticks…usually nothing.
Now they’ve gone the other way, investing a bunch of money in it. I hope this was budgeted for as part of the plan and not purely a reactionary move to last year’s struggles.