The ED(itor)’s Annual Draft Predictions
The main man responsible for my Jet fandom, is my godfather … known here as The ED(itor). Once in a great while, he’ll write for us, as he does now.
Alright I’ll say it. Everything would have been a lot simpler if the JETS had simply lost to the Chiefs in the final game of 2007. But they didn’t and now they sit at No. 6 waiting to see what surprises the five teams in front of them have in store for the JETS. The JETS currently have six picks pending the Dewayne Robertson trade to Denver. I think the JETS will get Denver’s 4th (#119) and 5th round (#148) picks for D-Rob, Dave Hutchinson from The Star-Ledger thinks it will be a 5th and 6th. But now there is a rumor that the Eagles, with 11 picks are interested in DRob. Could this up the ante to at least a 4th (#115) and a 5th (#152) round picks from either the Eagles or Denver? Or could it be an even up swap of D-Rob for Lito Sheppard? Stay tuned, you never know. Should this happen, this will give the JETS eight picks as follows pending any draft day trades:
Complicating this draft are several factors:
1) The Fish are all wrapped up. The consensus of analysts was DE Chris Long. However, yesterday Parcells reached a deal with OT Jake Long. Jake Long had said he didn’t want to play in Miami, but that seems to have been about money more than anything else. It was dicey for a while that he might have made a move for Gholston, Jets fans can remember that Parcells passed on All-Pro LT Orlando Pace to take Virginia LB James Farrior.
2) Everyone has the Rams taking OT Jake Long, but since he’s going to the Fish? If not, look for the Rams to consider Gholston or Dorsey as their 2nd choice.
3) I will faint if the QB-less Falcons don’t take QB Matt Ryan. But if they think Henne, Brohm or Flacco are just as good, will they pass on Ryan and take Dorsey? I think they are leaning to Glenn Dorsey.
4) If the Raiders pass on Chris Long, Howie’s son, all hell will break loose in Raiderland. I think the Raiders talk of McFadden is a smokescreen to get a pick or player out of the JETS. Al’s choice is Chris Long or if he is already gone, Gholston.
5) If Matt Ryan is there, make him a Chief. But they could surprise by taking LT Ryan Clady, DT Sedrick Ellis or stretching for DE Derrick Harvey since they are trading their All-Pro DE Allen. I think Clady.
6) This could leave the JETS with a very, very interesting dilemma. Do they take McFadden or trade down to #8 so the Ravens can take Matt Ryan. If they really want McFadden, the JETS will have to take him as Dallas will probably trade with the Patsies to jump in front of the JETS. So if the JETS trade down to #8, the Ravens will have to give them, according to which Trade Value Chart you believe, their 3rd round pick (#99), a 4th round pick (#106) and a 7th (#214). But now there is a rumor that the Carolina Panthers are also very interested in Ryan. According to the Trade Value Chart, the Panthers would have to give the JETS a #1 (#13) and their 2nd round pick or a 1 and 2 3rd round picks. The JETS might have to give back their 7th round pick. Can the JETS really luck out and get both of these teams into a bidding war?? What is a so-called franchise QB worth? You better believe that I am glad I don’t have to make this decision. But if pushed and as much as I like McFadden, I would probably make either of these trades. And since the JETS have already traded with the Panthers, I think they take the #1 and the two #3s as this gives them 4 picks within the top 75 players and reduces the cost of the first round pick; and then they could take the 2nd best RB in draft, Rashard Mendenhall at #13. However, if the Ravens throw in a #2 pick in 2009, the JETS will take the Ravens offer. I also think the JETS will sign Ty Law and resign Hank Poteat after the Dewayne Robertson trade is announced.
# 6 or #8 – RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas. I think McFadden.
or
#13 – RB Rashad Mendenhall, Illinois or DE Derrick Harvey, Florida. I think Mendenhall.
#36 – DE Quentin Groves, Auburn, WR James Hardy, Indiana or QB Joe Flacco, Delaware. I think Groves.
#67 – CB Brandon Flowers, Virginia Tech, LB Xavier Adibi, Virginia Tech or TE Martellus Bennett, Texas A&M. I like Flowers but he will be gone so Adibi will be the choice.
#74 – RB Ray Rice, Rutgers, TE Fred Davis, USC, TE John Carlson, ND or CB Patrick Lee, Auburn. I like Carlson but they will take Lee.
#102 – WR Mario Manningham, Michigan (will he fall this low?), WR Eddie Royal, Virginia Tech, WR William Franklin, Missouri or S Jamar Adams, Michigan. I like Manningham if he falls this low. But I think it will be Royal.
#113 – ILB Jonathan Goff, Vanderbilt. I like Goff.
#115 – OG Eric Young, Tennessee
#152 - S Tom Zbikowski, ND or S Jonathan Hefney, Tennessee. I like Zibikowski but his measureables aren’t great and they will take Hefney.
#171 – OT Pedro Sosa, Rutgers, QB, Colt Brennan, Hawaii, QB Dennis Dixon, Oregon or OG Shannon Tevaga, UCLA. I like Brennan.
#211 – P Dan Zeidman, Idaho State
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Can RIce make this team though? Especially fi the draft McFadden early on? He’d be the 4th guy and would be a waste of a pick, think they may need to bring someone who can make an impact like Lee or possibly Adibi at 74. That would be ideal.
Defeating the Chiefs was a cost saving measure mandated by Woody Johnson.
You mean the guy who just dropped 140 million?
Rice only applies if they trade with Car and draft Harvey at #13… in that case, neither McFadden nor Mendenhall is drafted, and Ray Rice would be better that Chatman… Rice is a very solid player – great vision and balance, and very tough inside runner… if he was 5′10″ instead of 5′8″ and maybe 210 instead of 200, he’d be low 1st round pick w/o a doubt…
I said it then and I’ll say it again now — I was very happy when the Jets beat the Chefs and still am. IMHO, tanking for draft position is what what losers do, play to win every game is what successful programs try and do.
Yes, the draft is all fun, but ultimately, I’m a Jets fan who wants to see his team win every Sunday. When I was watching in December, I could care less what might happen in April — heck, I could’ve been dead by then. And really, it was only a one slot difference, which may seem like a huge deal this week, but probably is not amount to much looking back in a few months. But beating Harm — I have taken pleasure in that for the past few months.
To coin a phrase, just win, baby. Let the losers haggle over trying to get a better pick.
at #102 wr. jordy nelson will be the big target that we need the jets are showing at lot of instrest in this kid you all will see..
trading up would probably cost the jets their 2nd rounder and possibly even more. this would be absolutely TERRIBLE. not to mention, who would we even be targeting at #2? mcfadden, ryan, or long?
I agree w R that the whole KC win thing is ridiculous. back then, pundits were arguing that there were 4 elite players in the draft, then it supposedly dropped off. Now they say 6 elite players. I feel like we’re in good shape to get Long/Ghoulston/McFadden or to trade the pick if someone wants Ryan.
Does anyone know how much Lito Shepard makes? If we trade D Rob for him, what would be the cap consequences?
Yeah, screw Herm. And it’s not like Edwards and Peterson have distinguished track records of shrewd personnel decisions. It’s a dream, but they’ve given me plenty of reason to believe that they’ll screw the pooch at 5.
R in CT, while it is true that as a fan we should wish we win everygame, i think the win over the chiefs wasnt just one slot.
If they had lost then that would have put them at #3 overall instead of #6. Now I totally agree with being happy that we won that game, just now our fate lies in the hand of what these 4 teams will do come saturday.
We need to hear two names other than Chris Long, Gholston and McFadden in order to get one of the top guys we’ve been seeking.
If the rams pick dorsey i think we are in good shape, because then the falcons might grab matt ryan and we are assured one of our guys.
That gave me a headache…back to thinking lovely thoughts about Danica Patrick.
I could still see the Cowboys trading up with the Chiefs to grab McFadden
Jose,
I think the Kansas City trade almost guarantees that both Ryan and Dorsey will be go before the Jets pick.
If the Rams pass on Dorsey, then Atlanta will take him, and now that K.C. has the #17 pick, they can now take Ryan (or trade the pick to someone else who will take Ryan) if he’s available at 5.
I think we should trade with the Rams for their #2 pick and give up whatever the charts say we must and draft Ryan before he is gone at 6.
All this RB, and smallish DE that will be moved to OL is absurd. We have 2 high priced OL that are pass rushers already, and 3 running backs with ability and talent.
We have no QB, Chad has wounded shoulder and can’t put velocity on his throws, or throw the out pattern. KC was not only the lowest rated QB in the entire NFL, he is only 6′1″, can’t read defenses, has trouble getting rid of the ball and lacks accuracy.
Draft Ryan and have an open competition in camp. I think Ryan can start his rookie year and win because of his physical skill, and his leadership ability. Its been done before by rookie QB’s.
Many of the FA acquisitions are old, and we have a short window to excel, and it is not going to happen without a QB. Keep Chad around for stability…..but it’s time for a young gun who can find his target.
Thank you for your post R_in_CT.
I don’t want to see the Jets lose any game, particularly one in their own stadium against their old coach.
Throwing the game to gain a higher draft position would have been so lame.
You play to win games. You don’t lose to draft 1 friggen spot higher people. That is the dumbest thing ever. The draft is a gamble and there is no such thing as a can’t miss prospect. So picking 1 lousy spot lower means nothing. Plus I loved beating Herm that last game. Would you ever play a game to lose? NO! You play to win, any athlete can tell you about that. These players don’t care about where they draft, what they care about is at the end of the day you come out on top. I’ll take a win everyday of the week and twice on Sunday over ever losing to move up in the draft.
I can’t ever root for the Jets to lose, I’ve tried thinking it meant better draft position, but it just doesn’t work, my brain won’t allow it, I always end up wanting them to succeed. I was at the chiefs game (I’m at every home game) and I was rooting for them to win as always but when the chiefs tied it up late and went to OT I thought ok, I don’t want to lose, but with all the other teams winning/losing that day the draft position was shaping up to be a nice consolation prize if the chiefs did win.
The jets did prevail of course, and I wasn’t disappointed in that, but to be fair it cost us 3 spots, not 1, at 3-12 we would have been drafting 3rd instead of 6th.
Sorry, I meant at 3-13 (not 3-12).
Did you guys here what the assessment the Jets made about this draft? I think they said it about 10 days ago.
I forget what the guys name was but he came out and said that this year’s draft is very deep. Last year it wasnt deep at all so he siad that the Jets wanted quality over quanitity.
If history is any indication and we read between the lines, the jets will choose quantity over quality this year and trade down for multiple picks. We only have 6 picks as it as and i dont see anyway that we try to trade up and give up more picks.
Look for the Jets to trade out of the number 6 spot and acquire more picks in the draft because they said the draft is very deep with talent.
I like all those picks from the state of Tennessee. Can’t go wrong with the SEC. Hefney is lazy though and will have to acquire a work ethic. He take plays off, and he goes for the INT instead of making tackles. Gets burned , but he could be great under Kerry’s wing.
If Gholston is around at 6 we have to pick him. With Gholston and Pace lining up opposite e/o wer gunnu have a hell of a D. besides DMC has chicken legs that look like they could snap any second.
agree with jerry on DMC’s womanly legs… he will take a beating in the NFL. BUT am very worried that gholston is not what he seems to be. athletic freaks dont make pro bowls unless they bust their ass…and their seem to be many questions as to why this guy didnt show up most of the time.
The Jets need an ILB and a CB. With the 6th pick there is no CB or ILB worth it. If by trading down we can get a CB like Mike Jenkins and a DE like Harvey, and In the second round we get an ILB worth the 36 th pick like Dan Connor and Jerod Mayo or to a lesser extent Curtis Lofton. then I think we will have the OPTIMUM draft. The defense will be solid in every position.
By using the first 3 picks all on defense, then in the 4th , 6th and 7th rounds we can concetrate on offense. We can get a very good TE like Kellen Davis or a wide receiver like Jerome Simpson or a lineman , we can get a tall receiver like Monk or Urruttia even draft a qb in the later rounds (just in case we get our Brady).
Rob Menna – cap implications of a Lito for D-Rob swap (please note that Lito’s worth is probably higher so they would also have to include picks):
D-Rob: Once traded, the Jets make a net saving (after accounting for the cap hit) of 8.4m
Lito: Is contracted to the end of the 2011 season at an average of about 3.5m per year, and also could be released or traded by the Jets at any point thereafter without any cap hit.
Puzzled by Mendenhall. McFadden I can kind of see, since he’s a game-breaker, but what does Mendenhall give you that TJones doesn’t?
I am a Vanderbilt student and have seen Goff first hand quite a bit. i really want him next to Harris I think that will be a great duo for years.
Glock:
I think Mendenhall might also be a gamer at RB. While DMC is the clear-cut guy to be a “playmaker” right off the bat, I think Mendenhall is probably a guy who can do what TJ can do, but is closer to being a playmaker than TJ is. I’d support them dropping down in a trade and taking Mendenhall to be part of a 2-headed monster with TJ, and keep Leon getting around what he got last year, mostly on passing downs.