It was killing me that we missed out on the sweet spot of the top four picks. But now looking at the board it looks like a six player draft. I don’t care which of the six falls to us, because no matter which one falls he will have trade value.

I have always been a fan of trading down when you are this high, unless you can draft a franchise changing player. I don’t see any in this draft (although IMHO Chris Long has the most potential). I have always been baffled by the trade value chart and how high top ten picks were valued, and even with the revised chart circulating I still think it is too high (our pick is actually worth more on the new one).

If given the choice between a pick at six and twenty mid round four picks (a balanced trade based on points), I wouldn’t think twice about taking a bunch of picks in round four instead of a hit or miss top ten pick.

Our draft position is hotter than normal much to the dismay of the Pats, because anyone interested in trading up for someone they want likely will have to deal with us, because pick six is the most affordable spot to trade into if their player falls there, and the five ahead of us don’t seem as motivated to trade. Also, the top five is so fluid no one is going to want to trade into the top three or four when there is a good chance their player may fall to six. No one wants to pay a player ‘pick two money’ (and pick two trade value) if that player could be there at six. I think most teams interested in moving will sit pat and see if their player falls to six and then make a play.

The Pats will definitely be willing to trade out of their spot too, but a team that really wants someone knows that they will have to come to us or someone else will and their player will be gone. The only kink in this plan is KC. They might be willing to trade out too, but with 11 picks I am not sure they are interested in acquiring more.

Now that I espoused on why trading down is good from the top ten and why our spot is a good place to trade from, here is my ideal draft day scenario:

Jake long, Chris long, Glen Dorsey, McFadden, and then Ghoulston are taken in the first five. Maybe in that order, maybe not, but we are just left with Ryan in a spot that is affordable for a team to trade down to. The KC trade I think actually helped us, because I think now they lean towards much needed DL help and use their mid round pick on the second QB taken.

Left with Ryan as trade bait, we trade with Baltimore for pick eight and whatever else they will throw in (I am fine with a fourth rounder). Then guess what, we are in a hot trade spot again. Teams that need a DT will be wanted to trade ahead of Cinci for Ellis. Now the Pats are ahead of us of course, so teams may leapfrog our trade spot for him, but I don’t think so.

We then trade with the Saints so they can draft Ellis. Another forth rounder is ok with me too.

I then say we pick at ten unless another great deal comes our way. We are now at a spot that is not too high for the top corner or top WR in the draft (my choices are Cromartie or Devin Thomas).

We take then BPA mixed with needs at #36, someone will definitely slide: Besides whichever spot we dont pick at 10, another rushing OLB (Groves would be nice), another RB (Stewart would be nice), another OL (several nice options here).

There is my dream draft day. But even if Ryan is taken it means someone else will fall to us that might have trade too…I still think McFadden to the Boys for both their first rounders is a possibility.

Have fun today!!!

Robert

Heading up to Mohegan…What an exciting day! Can’t wait until 3:30 when we wil know already.

Everyone enjoy and I’ll be thinking for all you fans when the pick happens. Just hope it’s a good pick!!!

Peace,

JtoEtoTtoS
Bayside, NY