Hey Rook! Dustin Keller
Name: Dustin Keller
Position: TE (Flex WR)
Height: 6’3″
Weight: 242
College: Purdue
Hometown: Lafayette, IN
High School: Jefferson
40 Time: 4.55 (1st among TEs)
Bench Reps: 26 reps (2nd)
3-Cone: 6.88 (2nd)
20 Yard Shuttle: 4.14 (1st)
Broad Jump: 10’11″ (1st)
Vertical Jump: 38.0″ (1st)
Why Keller: With an unsettled situation with Chris Baker and Laveranues Coles, two players who combined for more than 90 catches in 2007, it was time for the Jets to get proactive in finding their offense’s “heir apparent” number two pass-catcher. Somewhere between a Tight End and a receiver, the Jets are excited about Keller’s ability to create mistmatches and flexibility in this offense. The Jets wanted Keller, who they determined was the best all around pass-catcher in this year’s draft. Keller’s metrics put him at the top of his draft class in strength, burst and speed tests, and many of the quickness and burst tests (though not his 40 time) would keep him competitive amongst receivers … not bad when you consider he outweighs many of them by more than 30 pounds, or 50 when you are talking about a player like Cal’s DeSean Jackson.
Positives: Very athletic. Cut, defined frame, with large hands. Runs good straight-line routes and can sink his pads to settle underneath, best when used while in motion. Has good vision and will come back for the ball when the quarterback is in trouble. Runs light on his feet, building his acceleration nicely. Has soft hands in catching. Good ball skills and body control. Adequate timed speed and can stretch the field vertically. Excellent in creating yards after the catch. Hard worker in practices and in the training room, displaying impressive strength.
Negatives: Marginal size for a classic tight end; Best used in a move-oriented (H-Back) offense (Chris Cooley, Dallas Clark). Must totally revamp his blocking technique. Adequate hands, but would be much better if he would extend for the ball outside his frame better (plucking) has good leaping ability, but needs to develop timing to win more jump balls. Can take false steps in transition and can break off his route too early. Must learn better hand placement in attempt to separate at scrimmage. Can run too tall, lacking crisp cutting ability to come out of his breaks cleanly, which also causes less effectiveness in beating defenders in the deep passing game.
How Does He Help: Brian Schottenheimer has been looking for a “flex” receiver since he arrived in New York, with a combination of size and speed, Keller is a player that can work the middle of the field, and in time when he gets better at his route running to open up deeper parts of the field as well. Keller adds a third legitimate target to the passing game, taking pressure off Coles and Cotchery to do that for the other, and gives the team a player who can line up all over the field: flanking, split out, in the backfield or in motion.
Who Loses Out: Chris Baker thinks he’s losing out, but he’s the one hurting himself by sitting out. Keller is a pass-catcher and Franks can catch balls, but at this point is best known for his blocking abilities. Baker recently declined to say whether or not he would return for mandatory sessions later this spring, which means he likely will. Having Baker back in the fold would only help the offense, giving the team more versatile options in double TE sets. It remains to be seen whether or not he will return.
Here’s a video we’ve already posted of Keller, and another here.
(Photo Credit Andy Lyons, Getty)
81 Responses to Hey Rook! Dustin Keller
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HOZ THE JET says:
i cant wait for preseson to see gholston,keller,lowrey,ainge,henry and udfa i think clemens will make a name for his self as our starting qb.
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ramble914 says:
This guy is to dynamic to be a classic straight line TE. He should play all over the field, and never line up in the same spot on consecutive palys.
If he can be the same player in the pros as he was in college, we may have the steal of the draft.
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Excited about Keller. The Jets and Baker oughta agree that if he fires his agent, Baker gets another $500k.
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RayD says:
It’s exciting to see this guy on our team … each time I see highlights I get excited !
Lets only hope he produces for us. It going to be a fun season !
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RK says:
I’ll add more positives to the list:
Can out leap DBs. Stiff arms right proper (should get a long great with TJ). Makes open field cuts. Accelerates through contact. Can run over smaller players. Has never fumbled in his career (according to Purdue’s website). Improved in TDs and receptions every year at school. Played every game in the past 2 years.
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His ability will be marginalized if Chad P is the QB. I dont think we will be able to get the most out of Dustin with CP as the started because he will not be able to get the ball in his hands.
Same exact way that I think that Chris Baker is underutilized as a TE. I think Baker has great hands and great athletic ability. Just dont see too many balls thrown his way…. for some reason???
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Najy – the main reason not many balls are thrown to Baker is because he has to stay in to block so much and when he doesn’t, the QB usually has about 2.2 seconds to throw the ball. The Chad vs KC debate can rage on all summer, but any QB would have looked like crap last year on the Jets. Chad can get it to people if he has time and the threat of play action. KC might get it to him faster IF he can stop the happy feet dancing and calm down. Neither one should be judged by last year because Tom Brady would’ve looked like Browning Nagle if he played on the Jets last year.
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JustAGreenGuy says:
Nobody could have looked as bad as Nagle. I understand KCs rating is trash, but Nagle looked like he was picked straight out of HS out there. I watched him have the ball plucked out of his hand by the Aints. Plucked not stripped.
Sorry Nagle is the Jet I will always hate.
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The NYC Parking Expert,
I agree with everything you said but that is still not the point.
All things equal, Chad cannot utitlize the tight ends or deep threat receivers anymore. He cannot throw the out route or the comback route. His deep balls are more like hail mary’s then actual passes.
Chad will carve up a defense with 7 yards passes over the middle but he cannot do anymore than that anymore. Based on last year, he showed us that he cannot throw the out pass and he has no zip on the ball. You cannot deny that and that has nothing to do with the line.
Coles is one concussion away from retirement thanks to Penn leaving him hanging in the air every game and cotchery will have a shortend career due to Chad.
It is a fact!! Chad throws a soft ball. Sure he is accurate and has great heart but that isnt going to win us a superbowl. Im sorry. I like Chad and would love to keep him on our team and I would love to see him succeed but in my heart, I know it cannot happen.
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Najy – thank you for proving my point. You wrote “Based on last year, he showed…”
My point is that you can’t base anything on last year because no one would have looked good on the Jets last year. I’m not saying you are wrong about Chad, I’m saying that you or I or anyone else doesn’t really know, because last year was an extremely flawed litmus test. I cringed as much as anyone at some of those balls he threw last year, but as well as arm strength there were other factors including ridiculous pressure/no time to throw, no threat of run/play action resulting in tighter coverage of receivers, etc. There were times he was trying to make throws only a small handful of QBs can make and you are right, he ain’t one of them. I want KC to prove he’s the better QB, then I’ll be glad he’s the starter. Otherwise, making him the starter just because he can throw a faster out pass (BTW, if you really believe Chad can’t throw one at all, you must hate Mangini, because how dumb must a coach be to keep a guy on the roster who can’t make that throw) isn’t a smart move. Yes, KC’s arm strength is superior to Chad’s, but if he ain’t got a good percentage of the intangibles, he’ll be a loser as a starter. My point is weaker arm and all, Chad is the better option UNLESS KC has matured and can play better behind the new Oline. I am with you that that would be the best scenario, KC has improved on his intangibles (and even some tangibles) beats out Chad for the job and is our starter this year. But he’s gotta earn it – to go back to the Nagle thing, his arm was stronger than Chad’s, too. Would you want him? I’m not saying KC is Nagle, not at all. Just that Chad in 06 was better than KC in 07 and I’m not convinced that the Swiss cheese Oline didn’t cause a domino effect that resulted in Chad looking 10 years older last year than he did in 06.
I trust Mangini, if he chooses to start Chad, I will back that because then you KNOW KC isn’t good enough. If he chooses to start KC, I’ll be behind that ALL THE WAY.
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The NYC Parking Expert,
How long did Chad sit on the bench before he started?? KC should have the same opportunity.
Even in 06, Chad didnt look good. He threw 17 int and 17 TDs. That is not the same Chad of old and he only got worse last year.
Look, this is the NFL and you need to be able to have a QB who can make any pass on the field. Look at all the teams that have one the superbowl lately.. They all have QBs that can make all the passes.
Do you think Chad can make a pass 20 yds down field to an open receiver with zip and not get the receiver killed??? I dont think he can.
he cant make the pass from the right hash mark to the left sideline boundry without the DB jumping the route and almost picking it off…
And Leon Washington cannt be his first option on 3rd and 12.
I dont know if KC is the answer, but I know Chad and what he can do and he is not the answer…
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You dont need to have a Qb with a cannon for arm but Chad has a noodle on his right shoulder. I think they kept Chad to make push Kellen and make him work harder to earn his job.
The coaches decided that CP was the answer last year but if they let him go, then they are saying that KC is the Qb and they dont want to give him that message.
They want KC to work his butt off so that he can earn the QB position and now just give it to him.
Chad is done man. Im sorry.
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I love chad but he is not the QB he once was. You can’t just chuck a guy out like that though. we might be 5-5 and KC is playing well, and gets hurt. Chad is a nice player to come off the bench in that case. He can still win playoff games. How many backup qb’s can say that. Just ask Jared Lorenzon across the river.
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SackDance99 says:
I agree with both Najy and NYC Parking Expert…Chad is flawed and his inability to throw deep is an impediment to his overall game. However, Chad was an extremely effective QB whenever he was healthy. I think his last shoulder injury in 2005 took some permanent zip off his ball, but 2007 Chad was much worse than 2006 Chad. I think Najy is not giving Chad credit for 2006…bad OL, terrible RBs and, without Chrebet, no viable 3rd WR. Baker did have to stay in to block, but 2006 was arguably Baker’s best season. So, there’s no reason to believe that Chad wouldn’t be able to use Keller, who is a better weapon.
As for KC, everyone has to hope that past performance isn’t an indication of future results. KC was terrible last season. His completion percenatge was an awful 52%, Chad’s was 68.8%. KC tossed 5 TDs and 10 INTs in 8 games; Chad had 10 TDs and 9 INTs in 8 games. KC, the more mobile QB, had a higher sack percentage 9.7% to Chad’s 9.1%. So, even if Chad were the 2007 version (and I don’t think the same Chad should start), he’d still be better than KC for all the reasons that KC should be better: better OL, better weapons, better D (so better field position). And, if Chad is healthy and back to 2006 Chad, then I think the gap between Chad and KC as an NFL QB is too huge to play KC.
I will say this, if KC is the QB and the FO knows it, then Schott has to gear the entire offense around a 6-1 QB. More roll outs, quicker throws, etc. KC is not and will never be a classic drop back QB.
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Najy, don’t be sorry, you have your opinion and I, others and Mangini at this point don’t agree with it. Some share your opinion and that’s fine. Everyone’s entitled to their own opinion, all I can say is that I’m glad that Mangini and the staff have rational heads on their shoulders, look at the whole picture and don’t make snap decisions based on limited info.
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SD99 – great post, man. Don’t want anyone to think I’m a big Chad backer, cause I’m not. I’m just saying exactly what SD99 said – KC didn’t show much last year and neither did CP. Giving the ob to one or the other based on the other’s flaws is a pretty bad way to run a team. May the best man win and more importantly, may that guy actually PLAY WELL.
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The NYC Parking Expert,
If we can get the Chad of 2002 back then I am all for it but I think the Chad that you saw of 2006 is what ur going to get. 17td and 17 ints. Chad is not going to imporve much more since he is at the climax of his career. He has been in the league for about 8 years and these are suppose to be his best years as a qb, more or less…
Having said that, thank God the coaches havent made a snap decision because everyone knows that qbs take 2-3 years starting before you see improvement.
I personally am a gambling man and I have seen a lot of upside from Kellen as well as inaccuracy and a tendecy to stare down receivers, but he has only started a handful of games. Which is clearly not enough games for anyone to make a decsion on whether he is starting material or not.
Chad cannot throw the deep ball and cannot throw the out route… that has nothing to do with the OL and nothing to do with quality of the receivers or RBs.
He is conservative and takes what the defense gives him and thats why we cannot beat good defenses because they dont give him anything. He cannot go out and make the plays which is why we will be medicore if Chad is starting.
Once we are down by 2 possessions on O and the 4th quarter comes, consider the game over unless Leon returns one back because Chad needs about 6 or 7 minutes to drive the ball down the field to score.
There is a reason why no one in the history of the NFL ever came back from having 2 tore rotator cuff and its because it KILLS your arm strenght. Chad had questionable arm strenght to begin with and after 2 surgeries, it is done.. simple physics man.
Chad of 2006 was nothing to brag about… CONGRATUlations, he completed an entire year without being injured. His stats ranked right in the middle of the pack and where short of spectacular considering the weak level of competiton that we played that year.
I am just sick of seeing 3 yards passes on third down to Leon and I feel bad for Coles everytime Chad throws the ball to him.
He is a great Jet and a class act, but its time to say good bye.
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SackDance99,
Its not just that he can not throw the ball deep, but he cannot throw the ball with zip on it either. WR’s break open for a split second and the ball has to get there.. The receiver shouldnt have to wait for the ball to come to him or have to jump 5 feet in the air to go get it and get killed… ie Coles.
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only way we have peace on this team is chad get traded or release then we won’t be having this conversation about a wash up qb.he had his time his arm fell off it’s over it’s clemens time to shine!
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Najy,
Broken record, man. No one is arguing with you that Chad has great arm strength. The point of all this is that KC hasn’t shown enough to be given the starting job yet. If he improves and can win the job in camp, great. If not, the Jets will be mediocre with him at QB. AS SD99 noted, the Jets weren’t very good at running the ball in 06. If Chad returns to that form, he’ll be better than he was that year because of a better team around him. If Kellen outperforms him in camp, I’ll be wearing one of his jerseys to the games. If he doesn’t outperform Chad in camp, only an idiot would start him. Luckily, Mangini is not an idiot. -
Broken record or not…. Qbs need time to develop and Chad has developed to his full potential. Now even if the team plays great, I dont think we can ever win a superbowl with Chad. Maybe he ll get us to 10-6 and a wildcard birth.
Kellen on the other hand is unproven and raw. It is his third year in the NFL but guess what buddy… QBs suck when they come in and start. Qbs typically suck for the first 3 or four years of their career. There are execptions of course but in general, that is the case.
We cannot be close minded and think that because Chad is better this year that he should start because how is Kellen suppose to improve and gain game time experience if he doesnt play?
Even if Chad is better at the beggining of this year, Kellen needs to play so that if he doesnt work out, we know what we need next year in the first round. Obviously, everyone would have to agree that Chad is no longer the future of our team but rather a temporary Qb until we find some one better.. CORRECT? Is that fair to say??
So if Chad starts this year, we are going to have the same problem next year going into the season with a big question mark on Kellen. Should we draft a qb next year with our first round pick? Is kellen giong to be the answer? How much has kellen improved??
No one will know unless Kellen is given enough real game experience. Then, we can determine next year what to do in the draft and if we should draft a franchise Qb.
Think big picture man. Dont think about this year only.
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I am thinking big picture. If Kellen can’t beat out your noodle armed Chad this year after playing 8 games last year, he is toast.
Disagree strongly that most QBs suck for 3 years. Agree that they take time to develop, but your statement is a gross exaggeration. Even Chad the wimp played well in his 3rd year and with a team that looked like crap with Vinny at the helm.
If Kellen can’t beat out a gimpy, weak-armed, over the hill Chad this year, he is a backup QB for his career and yes, then they draft a franchise QB (or trade for one) next year.
In many cases, guys who play as bad stat-wise as KC did last year don’t get other chances to develop. As with Chad, KC’s play last year was greatly inhibited by what was around him and he deserves a shot a win the job. He does not deserve to be handed a (starting) job.
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Najy – gotta sign off for the night so I can’t continue the discussion. I do respect your right to your opinion and all that – anyone who is a Jet fan is automatically OK in my book.
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Have you looked up any of the Manning brothers Stats lately?
How about:-Alex Smith
-Carson Palmer
-Tony Romo
-Philip Rivers
-Drew BreesI can do much more research and look up guys who sucked in their first 2 and even 3 years… Those guys were terrible in their first couple years and you can argue had better teams than KC. Last year was KC second year when a mjaority of the Qbs put up poor numbers.
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Johnny Styne says:
Chad cannot make the throws that Curtis Painter made to Keller at Purdue, so if Chad starts what can we reasonably expect to get out of Keller that we couldn’t as easily have gotten out of Baker or Franks? If the answer is not worth a first round pick plus moving down in the fifth then the fans will boo Pennington even louder this year.
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sec108 says:
So this is fun, pre draft it seemed just about every thread turned into a who should the jets pick with their 1st round choice discussion, now that that ship has sailed I guess the majority of the threads will decompose into Chad vs. Kellen debates.
I think most would agree Chad could still be effective when given adequate time to pass with an effective line and running game (play action), but I also think most of the Clemens sentiment is geared around the fact that we want to believe we have something better than that in our future, a QB that could possibly win games under less than desirable circumstances, ie the running game is being stifled and we have to throw it 40+ times.
I am firmly in this camp myself, hoping that clemens develops into a upper echelon nfl qb, because truth is, if he isn’t all this offseason optimism goes right down the drain. We’ve seen what Chad can do, we know its not enough to end the almost 40 year SB drought, and if its not one of them the hope either turns to Ainge, a real longshot even through the most green colored glasses, or next years draft where we will hope to land our QB of the future, and then accept the reality that the team likely won’t compete for a title for at least another 3 years while he develops. UGH!!
This is no knock on Chad, I think under the right circumstances he could lead this team to a playoff birth, possibly even a 1st round win, but that is where the ride will end with him, so for me, at least for now, the hope lies with Clemens.
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sec108,
I feel the same exact way. We know what Chad has and we all know its not enough to win the big game. If Kellen is not the answer than we are screwed.
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Reprocity says:
P. Manning went 3-13 his first year and Aikmen went 1-15. Drew Breeze is 6″1′ KC’s his size doesnt bother me mcuh. We can all agree it took a lot of guts to play QB behind that line last year. I’m was really surprised B. Smith wasnt starting by the end of last year.
Penningtons two rotator sugeries and his inability to throw down field isnt physics… it’s biology :)
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Doug from Long Valley says:
Because you’re all talking QB I wanted to throw this in. This weekend I watched two games from last year, The Chiefs and The Titans both QB’s played with the same (Who are these guys??) O-line. (Yes I even watched the post game show in Jets Nation). While both games were tough to watch, I have a few comments about the QB’s. 1st on KC and the Chiefs game:
1-While #89 had a good 2nd half he had two key drops that could have made a huge difference. One, a sure 1st down, short yardage the ball hit him just below the stomach, no catch. The 2nd was HUGE, a ball that flew in the air over 60 yards and hit him on the forearms, he had the defender beat by 1/2 step. The announcers went crazy!!!
2-The running game was OK, 20 had a few 9, 10 and 10+ yard runs to keep the ball moving.
3-We never went back to the deep ball, and when the game was close at the end the play calling went into a shell (run, run, run). They didn’t let KC try and win the game, we go the OT filed goal for the win.
4-When the Chiefs had the ball they pushed us back 2 yards on every snap. When we had the ball we fell back 2 yards on every snap. #60 had a tough day. Oh Mr. Baker had a “Look Out” block on a DE that almost got KC killed.
2nd on the Titans game.
1- Chad had one great throw, down the middle and you guessed it, the coaching staff never tried it again. BUT besides that most of his passes were thrown less than 5 yards from the line of scrimmage. The Titan D shrank the box until you could see 10 defenders within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage most of the game.2- Just as in the Chiefs game both lines were blown off the ball.
3- This was the game where we missed an extra point, took three points off the board and then Chad threw an interception in the end zone without a white jersey in sight.
4- While neither QB in this game distinguished themselves, I’m concerned that Chad only put up 6 points on the game (if I remember correctly).
All that said, I don’t see how we can play next season with 10 guys in the box and 85% of our passes being thrown less than 5 yards. Sorry I love Chad, I have the Jersey, and a cool #10 tee shirt collection, but we need to be able to keep the Defense guessing. I’m hoping for #11 to start all 16 games, win, loose or draw.
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sec108 — If this website is representative, and I have no reason to think that it isn’t, then Jets fans are pretty evenly divided and equally passionate on the Chad vs. Clemens issue — Why, I have no idea as I thought Chad should have been dumped after taking a knee for a two yard loss and clapping like a seal against Pittsburgh in January 05, hugging and laughing with the Pittsburgh players and immediately calling the season “a success” — His “It is a privilege to cover the New York Jets” comment only added fuel to that fire — With that, Chad has a loud and vocal and significant backing — #1 among them most likely: Woody Johnson — Therefore, if you believe in Chad, you want to see him drive the Jets car with all the new bells and whistles — If you have had it with Chad and his lack of deficiencies as a quarterback and honestly believe he will be the quarterbacks coach of the Chiefs next year, then you never want to see him drive the Jets car into a brick wall ever again –
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Najy, one of my pet peeves is the “it takes a QB 3 years” argument. It really doesn’t. How about: Big Ben (won Super Bowl in 2nd season), Brady (ditto, made the Pro Bowl and he threw just 3 passes his rookie season), Peyton (made Pro Bowl in 2nd season), Favre (ditto), McNabb (ditto), Palmer (ditto), Marino (Pro Bowl rookie & 2nd year and his 2nd year was one of the greatest QB seasons of all time…over 5,000 yards and 48 TDs), Romo (had no stats for his first 2 years, has made Pro Bowl both seasons he’s thrown an NFL pass), Rivers (started in his 3rd year, after just 30 NFL passes in his first 2 seasons, and made Pro Bowl), and if I had time I could cite other examples. Even Drew Brees had a good second season, but regressed a bit in his third season before making the Pro Bowl in his fourth. The point is that KC had 2 NFL training camps under his belt and ended the 2007 season worse than when he first came in against the Ravens.
Also, here’s a link of all of the 2nd round QBs drafted in NFL history, it seems to me that most of the successful ones were pretty good early on and, more importantly, very few made it as starting NFL QBs, especially those drafted in the middle of the 2nd round or lower (most of the best were chosen in the first 10 picks or so of the 2nd round, indicating 1st round talent potential). Again, KC may make it, but his 2007 and NFL history are against him.
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Bent says: Taking a knee for a two yard loss was the play call…what was he supposed to do – audible for a hail mary pass?
And you must realise the “privilege” comment was taken totally out of context.
You may be right on the Chad v Kellen debate, but there are better reasons than these to have lost faith in Pennington.
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seanmac says:
Sec,
Chad has been better in each of the last two seasons than Eli Manning, who just finished winning the Super Bowl and beating what was presumably going to be called the greatest team of all time. There’s really no reason why he can’t be successful if the team around him is strong enough.
I don’t really have a horse in the quarterback race. I’m fine with the idea of a competition and I think the best player should play, end of story.
(I would add that as much as Sack has a pet peeve about the idea of quarterbacks not succeeding right away…the reality is that most quarterbacks don’t succeed right away, certainly not in the course of their first eight games. You can cite examples to the contrary, but that doesn’t really invalidate the basic point, which is that most quarterbacks struggle early on. Hopefully Clemens will fall into the camp that struggle and then improve as opposed to the group that struggles and falls by the wayside. But there’s no reason to think he’s going to succeed or fail based on how he played over eight games. If you whip out a list of guys taken first overall, most of them were as bad if not worse in initial action (John Elway’s 47% campaign comes immediately to mind). It is what it is- an incomplete report card.)
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seanmac — Please elaborate on how Chad was better than Eli in 2007 — Thanks –
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Frank says:
Why is everybody hating on Chad P. You can not base Chad’s future on last season because any QB playing with that terrible OLine would have looked just as bad. Chad was a very effective QB in 2006 when this team was 10-6 and was voted comeback player of the year. I am in no way a big Chad and it will be tough to get to a Super Bowl with him but he is a proven QB who has a decent arm and incredible intangibles. I remember the game against Cincy last season when Chad threw a 60 yard bomb to Coles for a TD. In my opinion, Chad tends to out think himself and never really looks for the deep ball. He is a solid NFL QB but not a SuperStar.
If Chad just doesn’t have the arm strength, then Clemens is gonna be the QB. However, the people that are saying Chad has a “noodle” for an arm should face the facts that Chad has been starting in this league for about 5-6 years now and has had a average career and led his team to the playoffs 3 times. Give this guy some credit for turning the face of the franchise around………..before Chad, Vinny’s one year wonder was all Jet fans had going for us. Now, we have a QB who is a winner. If your a true fan, you would give Chad some credit.
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Naht says:
Frank,
Chad has been injured and has been a back up the majority of his 5-6 years. And in his entire career, he has only had 1 complete season. So I dont think you can say that he started 6 years in the NFL.
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SackDance99,
Your just knit picking at what I am sayin. Qbs in general need 2-3 years to develop and in some cases 4.. ie ELI MANNING.
There are always execptions to everything but IN GENERAL, qbs need most time to develop. Dont forget that Kellen was injured his senior year.
I think this year should be used to evaluate Kellen and determine if he is an NFL qb. We already know what Chad is and he is not a superbowl or Pro-Bowl caliber QB.
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seanmac, I think the basic premise that most QBs struggle in their first 8 games in their first 2 seasons in the NFL is likely true, but it is how they struggle and whether there are glimpses of superior NFL skills. IMO, saying that KC struggled is like calling Katrina a hurricane. KC’s 2007 was a disaster with virtually no redeeming aspects. He just did not have a single game of 4 quarters where he showed he has what it takes to be an NFL QB. I will surmise that many of the successful QBs that struggle initially were high first round picks. So, yeah, Elway and Aikman struggled, but isn’t that different from evaluating the Browning Nagles or Rex Grossmans? Also, I think that the more recent successful QBs have done marginally better than their historical colleagues. There is way more emphasis on the passing game in college than there was in the 80′s or earlier. So, it may be time to rethink the window for how many games it should take a successful NFL QB to prosper in the NFL. If say the number is 10 or 12 (or even a full 16) games, then having an NFL franchise tied to a David Carr, Joey Harrington or Rex Grossman for 2-3 years would be over, as it should be. If a team misses with a 1st or 2nd round QB, it’s better to make that decision early rather than let an incompetent QB bleed the life out of a franchise. Plus, there are journeymen out there that can hold the fort (and not explode the cap) while an NFL team looks for a new franchise QB. QB is just too important a position to harbor incompetence for 2-3 years. Plus, I think teams are recognizing that fact, look at how many teams drafted QBs that have struggling young QBs: Ravens, Dolphins, Packers, Redskins, Vikings. The leash is shorter. Because of that, IMO, Chad should have first crack because the next 4-8 starts for KC should decide his NFL career.
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SackDance99,
This is the year to judge Kellen as long as he gets the start from the season opener.
This is his third year and we should see imporvement in his game, especially is accuracy, game management, and progression through his receivers.
With that said, its not fair to say Kellen is good or bad yet. I agree, 4-8 starts going into the new season will determine his career as a Qb but he has to start the season.
That way, we will know for sure what the deal with Kellen is and if he is not the future, we will have to draft a Qb next year and Chad can finish out the rest of this year.
Just dont right off Kellen yet after 2 years…. The begining of this new year will either make or break him…
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Especially since Kellen basically didnt play his rookie year. So last year was his “first year” as a starter.
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Sack your leash isn’t short it is non existant. He deserves one year. I did see glimpses from him and the O was not planned around his talents at all. Last years team was built to fail. The Pats game Kellen had one toss as the great turnstyle Clarke got him drilled. You complain about the Browns game, which you attended, did you just watch him? He brought us back into that game. He showed me more than Chad showed against Buffalo.
It should be a competition, but give the guy some slack. Have you ever played QB, coached or been a scout? Plenty of people with more credentials than you or I saw hope. Plus I don’t care if we have a drop back QB give me Drew Brees or Jake Plummer anyday. In the end we all want the same thing Wins. Chad gave us 1 last year… against the Doplhins. The 3 KC gave us makes him a HOFer in comparison.
If he isn’t the answer we will get one next year. We have more than enough picks between Vilma, Kendall and Drob to get the #1 if we really need to.
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Sack,
To say “KC’s 2007 was a disaster with virtually no redeeming aspects. He just did not have a single game of 4 quarters where he showed he has what it takes to be an NFL QB” is plain ridiculous! IMO, he showed plenty, he had many big time throws, and is the reason why I am optimistic for him being the starter and being a good NFL QB.
I don’t know what your deal is with KC, but you are not looking at the situation objectively or fairly.
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JAGG and ramble, I just don’t think you guys are being objective. I saw every Jets home game, except the KC game live. I dvr’ed the all pre-season and regular season games and watched them at least 2 times during the week. That KC can complete passes against prevent defenses does not mean he’s even an average QB. He looked confused in the pocket when he had time and, when he didn’t, he completely lacked any poise. Plus, what stat can you point to to say that he’ll be even an average NFL QB? The best anyone can do is say, “well, other QBs, who later were successful, stunk in their first 8 NFL games.” That’s the type of analysis that supports the idea that KC is a franchise QB? And, I love it when people say “well, who are you, you’re not an NFL coach, player, etc.” So what, I’m a guy who played and coached the game at a level far removed from the NFL, like many NFL fans. But, I’ve supported my arguments against KC with many different facts and stats. When I say he’s not NFL prototype size at 6-1, people say “well, look at Romo or Brees.” Romo started making the pro bowl as soon as he started in the NFL and Brees was just better than KC. When I say look at his stats, I get the “look at other 2nd year QBs” and then I point out all the ones who were far better than KC. So, what exactly is there about KC that any fan could like, except that he’s not Chad, who I don’t even like that much. But, he’s better than KC. Look, I hope I’m wrong, but KC has the impediment of lack of size, which he can’t do anything about, and lack of pocket poise, which, IMO, is a function of both innate ability and experience. KC’s lack of pocket poise was a knock against him coming out of college, so it’s not something new or made up. I just think a short QB with no pocket poise cannot be a bona fide NFL starting QB. At least, Chad was a bona fide starting NFL QB, despite his weak arm. Plus, besides Peter King, virtually every other beat reporter or Jets analyst has predicted Chad will be the starter…so, I’m not the only one. And, more importantly, Mangini declared an open competition and drafted a 6-6 classic drop back QB. So, Jets beat writers and coaching staff all, at the very least, think that handing KC the keys to the franchise is an iffy proposition. I’m just, admittedly, more negative.
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ESPN had a 6-1 vote that Clemens would be the starter. It was on their post draft position battles in a side bar. Who has mentioned it much other than PK? The Pre Draft stuff is all hype. I expect a fan that has been at it as long as you knows that.
I don’t think Clemens can be Peyton Manning, but I think he can be better than Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson in their hey day.
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Sackdance,
what exactly is there about KC that any fan could like???
What he did against the Ravens in the 4th quarter is enough to give me hope. He took a beating the enitre game from the Ravens D and was able to rebound and put it on them in the 4th.
In his entire career, Chad has never been able to put on a performance like Kellen did in 1 quarter, which I believe was his first start.
Also, he brought us back in the 4th quarter against the Redskins and played his ass off. If it wasnt for Clinton Portis running 200 yards on us, thart was our game thanks to KC.
Dont forget that Coles and Cothchery were injured at different times when KC was the starter and I think he only ahd them both play together like twice all year.
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SackDance,
How far can Chad take us?? and I want you to answer this question honestly….
Based on his career as a starter, what can he do for our team? Can he even stay healthy? How many times is he going to dump it off to Leon on 3rd and 11?
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And dont get me wrong, I dont want kellen to start because I think the is the next Drew Brees.
I want Kellen to start so that we ALL can see IF he is the next Drew Brees.
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Boland, Cimini and, I think, Cannizaro have all predicted that Chad will start, as have the guys on Jets Nation. Boomer and Phil Simms also predicted that Chad will start on Boomer’s pre-draft show on MSG. Interesting that national guys (like PK or ESPN) have different opinions from the Jets beat writers/ local analysts.
Because of his mobility and the fact that he doesn’t seem to go through his progressions quickly, I think KC could thrive in a West Coast or system offense where his mobility is utilized and his offense would be more structured.
One of the odd things about drafting Ainge is that he’s a taller Chad…known for his accuracy and smarts, but an average arm (IMO, Ainge’s arm is better than Chad’s, but not as good as KC’s…I think Ainge has a nice quick release, but scouts are mixed). So, I tend to doubt that KC will have a different playbook from Chad or Ainge.
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I’ll answer that question- Chad can take the team precisely as far as the quality of the team around him. If he was the quarterback of the Giants last year, they could have won 12 games- that’s the difference between a guy who completes 68% of his passes and is in the top ten in 3rd down conversions and a guy who completes 56% of his passes and is 30th in the league at converting third downs. People don’t seem to realize just how good a season Chad had in 2006- the Jets had a terrible defense, they had a terrible running game, no game breaking receivers and a questionable offensive line with two rookie starters. He’s not capable of matching Peyton Manning or Tom Brady anymore (he was before his injuries), but he can absolutely be a part of a quality team.
As for Clemens, sack is essentially right- there are no serious arguments for him based on last season, simply viable excuses for why he wasn’t very good. I happen to think my particular excuse is pretty compelling- the state of the offensive line rendered a quality NFL quarterback in Chad Pennington ineffective, so there wasn’t reason to think Clemens would fare well- but even so, the onus is clearly on Clemens to perform well in camp and in the preseason to allay concerns. He has shown that he has an NFL arm, and he started off hanging tough against pressure (something which he regressed at as the season went along, but that’s not unusual in a young quarterback). But there wasn’t a lot to hang your hat on.
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Najy, I just don’t know Chad’s medical condition. If he’s healthy and back to 2006 Chad, then he would just be one component of a good team. If the Jets’ defense and special teams can keep the other team’s offense from lighting up the scoreboard, Chad’s long, controlled drives could get the Jets to 10-6 or better. The playoffs are a different animal. Like you, I think if a team forces Chad to go up top by taking away the running game and short passing game, then the Jets are in trouble. But, Chad put the Jets in position to get to the AFC Championship game in 2004 and his arm wasn’t right. So, I actually think Chad has the potential and track record of being able to get the Jets deep into the playoffs. After that, it’s up to the football gods.
Now, honestly, how far do you think KC could get the Jets if he starts all 16 games this season?
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seanmac,
Chad had a higher completion percentage then most Qbs because he doesnt throw it further than 8 yards.
You know this… I have read your posts and your are a more knowedgeable Jets fan than that. Chad has high percentage passes because they are all short passes. I would even argue that at least 25% of his passes last year were behind the line of scrimage or 1 yard passes that were turned into positive yards.
That doesnt win you big games. You have to take chances and when Chad does that… which is usually in the 4th quarter and we get desperate, the ball gets picked off due to his lack of ability to press the issue and take the game over and make plays.
You can probably complete 70% of your passes if they were 4 and 5 yards dump offs… comon man, you know how Chad plays.
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That I agree with. Ainge is Chad’s understudy. They have a very similar style.
I don’t see why they expected KC to fit into this offense. I do think the offense can be tweaked a little to make it fit him. Cotchery looked better with KC QBing. When he had Coles they looked sharp together too. His lack of redzone production is my major complaint.
I’m one of those people who think the Broncos made a mistake giving up a chance at a good postseason with Plummer to get Cutler some reps. Just because Cutler looked the part it didn’t make him what the team needed.
KC adds new dimensions to the Jets O. Chad reminds me of booing to fire Hackett and here we are years later with the same boring offense.
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I think maybe I wasn’t clear in my first post here, I wasn’t saying that the Jets should hand Clemens the job over Chad becuase he is our only hope, I was just saying that I am hoping Clemens wins the competition, because if he can’t even do that then I know we’ll be looking for a new QB next off season and putting off becoming a bonafide contender for another few years.
I am happy with the competition idea for training camp, I think for all Chad’s done, and all that Kellen hasn’t its the most fair option, and I’m certainly not ready to annoint KC the future yet, or just dismiss last year because of poor line play, but I’m also not ready to say pull the plug because I saw nothing to indicate he can be a good QB in this league.
Fortunately for us I think Tangini might have a bit longer leash than Sack on this one, and IF Kellen wins the job this summer they will likely give him a full season to prove himself, that is unless he is as bad as Sack says and then his window might be only 4-8 games.
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SackDance99,
Honestly, I dont know how far he can take us. He is a wildcard and it depends on how much he has progressed from last year to this year. He SHOULD have improved a lot but idk, i havent seen him play.
My point is no one knows what Kellen has and we should at least give him a shot before we right him off.
I think he can play and I will always go back to the Ravens game. The kid has heart and a nack to make plays in the 4th quarter… at least he should flashes of that. So I would like to see a little more of that.. WOULDNT YOU? If he can do that for you everyone game, would you be happy with that?
All i know is Chad will be there in week 6 to come in and take over for the rest of the year if Kellen doesnt work out. Then we can move on with our lives and draft a franchise Qb next year.
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naly,
Chad’s dump-offs turn 1st and 10 into 2nd a 6 and then 3rd and 2 and then 1st and 10 again, and you can absolutely win games doing that. The biggest problem with the offense was that the running game would repeatedly turn 1st and 10 into 2nd and 9. It’s fine to use the short game so long as you are proficient at converting on third downs, and Chad was excellent in that regard.
For the last two seasons, the Jets have had one of the worst defenses in football, no running game to speak of and a marginal offensive line (at best). Believe me, Chad is low down on the list of impediments to winning or even playing in big games.
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The run game was non existent because of all the dump-offs. Granted we had a horrible o line but the dump offs dont help.
Teams play 8 men in the box with the second saftey 10 yards off the ball, mixed in with a bad offensive line = one of the worse offenses in the league.
Chad did nothing last year to help our bad offensive line.
We cannot keep teams honest with Chad. Yes he can tear a D up in the short game but that only takes us so far because it closes down so many other options.
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Also Seamac, if our offense gets one holding penalty then our drive is pretty much done… doesnt that piss you off???
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seanmac, I think your grade on KC is “incomplete” because of the bad OL and mine is “D” because I’m very wary of QB’s who have one good half (Ravens game) and, then, get a little worse each outing. Based on one half of 1 game, Ryan Fitzpatrick (6-2, 225) looked like he was ready to grab the starting job in St. Louis in 2005 (Fitz led the Rams to a great OT comeback win over the Texans, but, to put it mildly, that was his highpoint in his rookie season:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/gamelog?statsId=7426&year=2005). When he crashed back down to earth, people realized that Bulger and Jamie Martin weren’t in danger of losing their jobs. The NFL quickly caught up to the glaring weaknesses in Fitz’s game. Although his stats were worse, Clemens is better than Fitzpatrick, but is that saying much? So, what I’m saying is, yes the OL was bad, but KC looked progressively more confused out there by his 8th game. -
The running game was non-existent because of the running game. When the Jets were in power situations, 3rd or 4th and 2 or less, they were 30th in the league at converting. So in situations where the identity of the quarterback is irrelevant, the offensive line was one of the worst blocking units in the league. Based on that, I see no reason to think that the primary issue was at quarterback. The reality is that teams stacked the box to defend the pass, not the run- they were trying to take away our one strength, which was the short passing game. If you watch the tape, most defenses played the run on the way to the quarterback, because they were completely unconcerned about the ground game. (I’d also note that Thomas Jones had some of his biggest games against teams that play a 46 front, which is to say teams that would stack the box regardless- having eight in the box doesn’t mean that you can’t run the football effectively.)
Again, people ascribe far too much importance to the quarterback play instead of looking at the offense and defense as a system. The quarterback turned 1st and 10 into 2nd and 6 and turned 3rd and 2 into 1st and 10. The running game turned 1st and 10 into 2nd and 9 and 3rd and 1 into 4th and 1. The defense turned 1st and 10 into 2nd and 2. When you look at the basic dynamic, you realize that the quarterback is the least of the problems, and that no matter who was under center, they were fighting uphill all game.
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That 30+ yard pass under pressure in Jerricho’s bread basket, which was dropped, in the KC game was sweet.
The drop against the Skins would have won the game too. With support Clemens would have had 5 wins.
He also threw 4 tds to 6 ints after being officially named the starter. Once was in the PATs game and I truely believe he was tring to throw it out of bounds.
All for competition tho. The team needs to gain confidence in him over teh very likeable Pennington.
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What about the game against the Redskins and the game against Cleveland. Check out his stats in those games. Didnt look to shabby to me…
I think it was more of a roaler coaster year for Kellen rather than progressively declining year because its not like he had one good game and that was it… He had 3 or 4 decent games..
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Najy, I think it’s better for Chad to start out because if KC fails, he’s done and I don’t think he needs the pressure of being the opening day QB. Also, I don’t want to get rid of KC as much as I want to make sure Chad is done before he’s tossed aside. Starters aren’t supposed to lose their jobs because of injury and, if Clemens was Tom Brady to Chad’s Drew Bledsoe, I’d say good riddance. But, to me, he was more Ryan Fitzpatrick to Chad’s Marc Bulger, who still has his starting job, despite his many injuries.
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Sack,
Yes, Clemens got progressively worse, but that’s not abnormal in young players who are taking a lot of hits. It’s not like Clemens started off being really effective at doing a few things and then defenses took it away. He was doing more or less the same things but was sustaining a steady beating from week to week. It also didn’t help that his receivers started getting hurt and that he spent several weeks with Brad Smith as his primary option. That’s going to lead to hesitation which is going to lead to hits which is going to lead to more hesitation. Clemens was out there with some real bottom of the barrel receivers for his worst stretch of games. If he looks as bad coming out of the gate this year as he did finishing up last year, I’ll revise my opinion, but I would expect he’ll look significantly better after a full training camp, with a better offensive line and having taken less of a beating.
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seanmac,
Our offensive line was terrible but our lack of abiltity to stretch the field deonst have a bad offensive line.
Face it man.. Chad is an NFL QB who cant throw the ball past 15 yards accuratley… His legacy is going to be known as “throwing the CHAD ball”…. soft pass that makes you close your eyes everytime he throws it over the middle into traffic and you wonder how the receiver caught it.
Arm strength is just as important as being accurate… you dont have to be great in both areas but you have to be able to get by and Chad cannt get by with his arm strenght..
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SackDance99,
he should be done.. if Kellen starts and cannot produce or hasnt shown improvement, then what do we need him for?
Chad will always be Chad so we dont have to worry about him.
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Najy,
You can’t stretch the field with a bad offensive line because you can’t hold your blocks long enough for the routes to develop. It’s not a coincidence that Chad or Kellen, the Jets big pass plays came off flea flickers, which is to say they needed to completely trick the defense to give the receivers time to get deep. What happened last year had very little to do with arm strength.
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I agree that the O line impacted the overall performance of the offense, including Chad.
But lets face it, if Chad had all the time in the world, he still cannot throw the out route or stretch the field unless the guy is wide open.
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The play against the Bengals wasn’t a flea Flicker was it? Looked like they just didn’t put a safety over the top.
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Everyone runs their mouths until I have a question. Now I will be up all night trying to remember the whole play. I remember the floater and the TD. I remember thinking that we just openly challenged a superior offense. I don’t remember a flea flicker tho.
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Najy, the Cleveland game stats were pumped up with prevent defense stats, plus the Browns game was really KC’s low point. A bad defense, KC playing at home, and he was awful. The redzone INT was a killer..3rd & 2 at the Cleveland 2? A chip shot FG would’ve been important because of the weather and it would’ve given the Jets the lead. Just as dumb a play as could possibly be imagined. The second INT was no better, on a short out…isn’t that why Chad was replaced? And, before the very end, he missed quite a few wide open WRs and he took some bad sacks. Just a dismal game. The Skins game loss wasn’t really KC’s fault, he could’ve played better and his lack of accuracy hurt, but it was more the defense and Jericho’s fault. I guess that I just felt that he had the game in the bag in OT and couldn’t close the deal…2 incompletions on short passes when he locked on Jericho, who had an uncharacteristically bad game.
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TJ had two trys to get into the endzone. We should have got that touchdown. KC tried to force it, but all young QBs need help. TJ and the line should have helped.
My question? anybody?
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One thing we all can agree on, the no. 1 issue in training camp will be the QB battle. Poor Chris Baker, last year with the only issue being signing Revis, PK dominated the talk at training camp. This year, everything will be about the QB. Baker will quickly find out that nobody will care about whether he signs or not.
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JAGG, the Cincy pass (Chad to Coles for 57 yards) was a nice play action pass, not a flea flicker.
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Thanks. No one will care about Chris Baker. Chad’s bread and butter is that play action.
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Chad can air it out… He showed that once in a while, he can put air under the ball but that doenst demonstrate arm strenght.
Arm strenght = velocity = zip on the ball…
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Sack, I gotta disagree with you, this Kaponos vs. Graham battle is shaping up to be a big one :) .
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Sack,
You continiously harp on that Cleveland game, granted it was not a good game for him, but you have to expect that from young QB’s. Every QB has had games like that. P. Manning and T. Brady included. It is part of the learning process.
You just seem to have written KC off as if he cannot possibly be a good NFL QB, where I think any NFL GM, HC, or scout would tell you its way to early to tell.
Well at least he is not like the other busts at tight-end we usually draft in the 1st round!
It seems he can catch very well, and should fit very nicely in the slot. He will be a load to bring down for any safety or corner in the secondary.