Link: The Completion King
Toni Monkovic over at the Fifth Down has some interesting data on Pennington
Among N.F.L. quarterbacks with at least 1,500 pass attempts, no one has ever had a better completion percentage than Chad Pennington.
That’s some serious company Pennington has kept — granted, it is one aspect of a multi-faceted role like Quarterback. All the same, we’ve said it before and we’ll say it again; to us it doesn’t matter so much as to who will be throwing passes in the pocket for the Jets in 2008, it’s just that someone will be throwing passes without getting dumped on their keister on every passing play in 2008. That’s some serious improvement already.
134 Responses to Link: The Completion King
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Johnny Styne says:
That’s like saying he has the highest percentage scoring with chicks when he’s almost exclusively hitting on ugly chicks — OF COURSE, Pennington has an insanely high completion percentage because he throws almost exclusively very short passes because his completion percentage for his not very short passes (scoring with not ugly chicks) is probably one of the lowest among N.F.L. quarterbacks with at least 1,500 pass attempts — Look that up, why don’tcha –
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zzzzz says:
Hey! I thought of that two minutes ago!
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JustAGreenGuy says:
I can throw a spiral (a whole ten yards) and I agree with you. Chad had 15-20 straight completions against Buffalo and it led to what 3 points? He will hit his target it just is always the check down reciever.
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zzzzz — ZZZZZ beat me to it — can’t kill a guy for typing his post while a post is made making the same point — if there is technology that allows one to see new posts as one is typing, I don’t have it as of yet –
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styne … love the analogy … classic! I will have to remember that one!
how does McCareins dropping passes downfield figure into that analogy, I wonder …
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beansy says:
we’ve all been through this a million times…Chad doesent have the arm strength we all wish he had…however he usually makes smart decisions. Considering the weak line we’ve had in the past, he hasnt been all that bad. Just think what he might be able to do with some of the changes we made up front. Until NY gets that star qb we’re all praying for, my vote is with chadsky
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Reprocity says:
Um.. McCareins droped everything everywhere. I think I just got use to (spoiled) with Keyshawn as the big receiver with great hands where as McCareins just managed to grow tall.
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It would be more interesting to know how many balls Chad has thrown that traveled over 15 yards in the air…
I wouldnt call it a 50 yard pass if Chad passed it to Leon 4 yards downfield and then Leon ran for 46 yds and it counts as a long ball for Chadt… That is not a long pass
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SackDance99 says:
The most interesting thing about the article was the youtube clip, when was the last time Chad completed a deep out? What was that , a 50 yarder to Moss in stride? Injuries really did cost Chad a lot of arm strength.
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Who knows what would have happened if he didn’t rush back after surgery in 2004 or if he had gotten it when he first knew he needed it.
No injuries and there would be no question who our QB is.
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Guys, there is a reason why that in the History of the NFL, no QB has ever played after 2 shoulder surgeries…. THAT IS A FACT and are terrible odds for chad.
Hey man… 22 TDS and 6 ints in 2002 is as good as you can get for your first year as a starter. It is not the same Chad anymore and a lot of people think that he is the same Chad of old..
As much as we all want that Chad of 2002 back, reality is that this “new Chad” and 2006 (17TDS and17 INTS) are about as good as he can get. Plus he is not a threat anymore to Dbs and safetys to go over the top on them…
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DSmizzle says:
Najy:
“Plus he is not a threat anymore to Dbs and safetys to go over the top on them…”
Should read:
“Plus he was never a threat to Dbs and safetys to go over the top on them even before his injury…”
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seanmac says:
Pennington- 7.2 YPA
Warner- 8.1 YPA
Young- 8.0 YPA
Manning- 7.7 YPA
Palmer- 7.4 YPA
Culpepper- 7.7 YPA
Brees- 7.0 YPA
Bulger- 7.5 YPA
Montana- 7.5 YPAFor all the talk about dinking and dunking, it’s not like Chad’s career YPA numbers are way off from the rest of the list- they’re comparable with Carson Palmer and better than Drew Brees. And most of the guys on the list had much, much, much better receiving options than Chad- Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, John Taylor, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Chris Carter, Reggie Wayne, Brent Jones, etc, etc. Are any of Chad’s receivers going to the Hall of Fame? I’m guessing no.
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seanmac,
You obviously didnt read my post above.. YPA are influenced by YAC and Chad has had some of the best WR’s in YAC.
I would like to find out how many passes Chad has thrown in his career that have traveled in the air over 15 yards… I bet its among the lowest in the NFL,,
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Nikolas says:
Johnny!! The following table indicates that you may not know what you are talking about. This is football..
QB %Compl Yds/Pass Rating
Pennington 65.6 7.2 88.9
Rivers 60.8 7.0 86.6
McNabb 58.7 6.8 85.8
Brees 63.7 7.0 87.9
Brady 63.0 7.2 92.9
Bulger 63.5 7.5 88.1
Hasselbeck 60.7 7.1 86.2
Manning P 64.2 7.7 94.7
Palmer 64.1 7.3 90.1
Roethlisberger 63.2 8.1 92.5
Manning E 54.7 6.3 73.4
Garcia 61.2 6.9 87.4
Delhomme 59.7 7.2 85.2
Edwards 56.1 6.1 70.4 -
Chad’s receivers were better YAC guys than Jerry Rice…or John Taylor…or Randy Moss…or Torry Holt…or Isaac Bruce…really?
Really?
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seanmac,
Do you watch the football games or jsut sit and look up stats because if you watch the games when Chad plays, you wouldnt even waste your time looking up stats ..
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Najy…o.k, ..maybe you do not know how to read stats, but stats are the only thing close enough to objectivity not your opinion.
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Naly,
No, no, you’re not wriggling off that easy. Once more, for the cameras, I’d like to see you repeat your assertion that Laverneous Coles and Jerricho Cotchery are better at generating YAC than Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Marshall Faulk, and the rest of the Hall of Fame crew that played with Warner, Bulger, Young, Montana and Manning. I’ll even let you throw in Santana Moss if you’d like (and it should be noticed that Chad’s year-to-year drop in YPA coincides not just with his injuries but with the loss of Moss).
Please. Make that argument. Remind me how you watch football games and therefore you don’t need no stinkin’ stats.
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frank says:
in my opinion, chad put this organization in a positive direction on and off the field. basing someones performance on just stats is not accurate. marino had fantastic stats but never won a superbowl. but chad deserves credit for bringing this team 1 field goal shy of beating pittsburgh. if we would have won that game and possibly the next round against the pats, chad would have been more appricated by fans. chad now has less arm strength. but for a QB, arm strength is not the only thing needed. i would rather have a QB who knows what he is doing with the ball
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Biebs says:
Frank,
Chad deserves NO credit for “bringing the team 1 field goal shy of beating Pittsburgh”. Do you remember how bad the Jets offense was in that game? Their 2 TDs included a Santana Moss punt return and a Reggie Tounge INT return.
I’m one of those people who thinks Pennington is done (but, I also think that if Pennington outplays Clemens, he needs to be the starter this year) but to bring up the game against Pittsburgh as a reason to keep Pennington is insane -
Dolfini says:
Chad can throw the ball deep he just can’t throw lasers. In the 2004 wild card playoff game Chad threw the ball 53 yards in the air right on the money to Santana Moss and that was with the tear in his rotator cuff. He then proceeded to flex his right arm as to say screw you to all the critics. I think he just has trouble throwing the intermediate throws with any kind english on it. Unless Clemens looks really good in camp we are going to have to go with Chad and the short passes with a few long passes sprinkled in there.
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The reason chad’s receivers are good after the catch, if they really are, is precisely because CP is accurate and throws a catchable ball right where the individual receiver likes to get the ball, receivers have talked about this in public many times.
Also, shoulders heal. Pitchers with arm and shoulder injuries often take more than a year to get their velocity back. If Mangini’s a man of his word, then the open competition at QB will give CPa chance and I’m sure that the strength of his arm will be part of the equation.
seanmac, i agree with you, but I do think the difference of .5 YPA is prolly pretty significant. Brees is low because his best receiving options throughout his career have been the check down guys (LT, Gates, and the need to justify reggie bush) — also how good is Kurt Warner? pretty good i guess!
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how can u not credit chad in 2004 for bringing the jets one fg shy of the afc championship? big ben was a rookie in 2004 and he didnt exactly light it up in that game. a QB’s job is not to accumulate amazing stats. his job is to put his team in a position to win. that is what he did. vinny t was the last QB to getting us a title. chad has been a average QB for the jets when all the parts around him are good. he might be done though.
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HOZ THE JET says:
why we keep making threads on a washed up has been who might not be on the team this season…………. sorry too sound so harsh on pennington but i lost a lot of money on this guy i would like to see him as our qb.coach
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As joe said, I think there’s a strong chance that Chad wins the starting spot back this year if it’s a true open competition (which I’m not sure it will be – I think the coaches would love KC to win it). A better o-line would give Chad time to let plays develop and read the defense, which he’s obviously superb at. Plus, a little more time would let him bring back two of his favorite plays – the play action in short-yardage situations, and the fake underneath followed by a sideline toss over the top of the safeties.
The problems with Chad are that (a) he has a smaller margin for error because of his arm’s limitations and (b) he’s very unlikely to stay healthy for a full season. Part of me thinks you either have a Super Bowl-caliber QB or you’re looking for one – that a great QB makes everyone else’s job much easier, and it’s not likely Chad will ever be truly great again. On the other hand, if KC doesn’t beat him out fair and square, I’m fine with letting Chad be the guy until injuries hit. Either way, I guess it’s nice to have one of the league’s best backup QB’s.
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I’m thinking Clemens will show enough next season to impress and Pennington stays and we draft a Franchise QB next year (09). 8-8 would be nice and hopefully one of those will be against the Patriots!
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dakar says:
jagg
it was the idiot harm that not only rushed chad back in 05…but he kept him in the whole year with that injury to his shoulder in 04…harm is the 1 who did the most damage to c.penn by keeping him in games…there are players out there who will play hurt and cpenn is 1 of them…
it was harm’s job to make the decision to put cpenn on IR and make sure he had the time to recover…but he didn’t…he rushed cpenn back from shoulder surgery only to hurt the same shoulder agian…harm should not be a coach in the NFL period…
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hank/naples says:
Guys, a lot of the posts and analogies i’ve read are funny:
zzzzz: “Bat to balls and bunts” is funny. How about more accurately – bat to ball to on base %. Try batting for base hits 8 out of 10 times and you will make billions.
Seanmac: “scoring with ugly girls” 68.8% of the time. Man if you are that successful. I’m willing to buy the beers every time we go out, ugly girls or not.
Seriously though, Pennington is the only proven winner we have and we have spent too much money and waited too much time (like forty years) for a chance like this to take someone on prom night that doesnt’t know how to dance. Kellen will get his chance but not at this prom -
pound4pound………..pennington wasn’t never great he was decent great qb’s go to the pro bowl!
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Fonzie says:
All of you who so pessimestic about our Jets now must think back and ask who in franchise’s history has run this organization better than Tangini. These two guys have swept the basement, all the floors and rooms completely. I am starting to think from all this criticism about Pennington to the last guy on the roster you have criticism about. Just trust these two guys. Besides they are going to be here for a while. Its so sad to see how you jet fans think so negatively when in five years we can win a couple of super bowls you guys will be criticizing them for how much they the players get paid.
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Weeb Ewbank, Buddy Ryan, and Walt Michaels ran this organization better than Tangini has to date — They team they ran was best in the world in 1968 –
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Hoz, Chad is #8 all-time in passer rating, behind guys like Steve Young, Montana, Warner, and Brady. And the Pro Bowl is a popularity contest, nothing more. Michael Vick made 3 Pro Bowls. Pennington somehow made none, even when he led the NFL in passer rating. Who would you have rather had as your QB for the past 7 years?
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Jeff says:
Chad is a great QB, but with a weak arm. Since his arm is weak his margin of error like aforementioned is very small. Just look at the Buffalo game, 20 straight completions and what killed him where the interceptions. Heck Chad fared better against the Patriots than any other QB last season! If it wasnt for our inefficiency we would have beaten them and left it at 15-1!
I know that Chad has one of the best completion percentages for passes over 20yds. The problem is he cant throw that quickout to the sidelines anymore. Since DB’s usually jump the route and its pick-6. Throwing a 10yd-out pass is like a 35yd pass downfield. Except, you have a smaller window!
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i love cpenn…but to keep a defense honest he needs to work on his arm strength…and if doesn’t have it…i would rather go with KC…who i think can lead this team…
KC has been questioned as to if he can lead the team after going 3-5…that record every1 is looking at is very misleading…KC who tried to make plays didn’t get much help from his recievers who dropped alot of his passes…then there’s the fact he was running for his life…
so lets just say the recievers helped by catching his passes…well the cause and effect result would have been more 1st downs…which then means more plays…which makes for a better opportunity to score more points…with that more victories…the end result would have been a 5-3 or 6-2 record for KC…BUT WE ALL KNOW HE WASN’T HELPED BY THOSE DROPPED PASSES…but that is why i think he can lead this team to a better record this year…just my thoughts… -
if he gets help from his recievers…
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Agony85 says:
all the people that want to rag on pennington are the same people who were getting on chad’s jock when he won comeback player of the year two years ago. sure he isn’t peyton, palmer, or brady, but the fact is he can still manage a team, and i would still rate him in the middle of the pack among all the starters in the nfl. I would give him and clemens another year before we burn them at the stake. then who knows, maybe ainge will suprise us, but im not sure what qb’s are lookin like in next years draft. either way with our revamped o-line and few other additional recieving options, i think this will be a good year for our qb squad.
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tommiesmithjohncarlos says:
pound4pound… I am SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO happy that you asked this question. I’ve been reading all these comments in the thread and trying to find a way to explain that Chad is the perfect textbook example of why stats can be used in misleading, and you provided the answer for me.
Who would I rather have had for the past 7 years, Chad or Mike Vick? That’s easy. Michael Vick, hands down, without question, is the better NFL QB, and it’s not even close. I’d hit the button on the wayback machine and make that switch in a second.
And yes, I know that 99% of this site, and most NFL sites probably think I’m crazy, but even if you put the ProBowls aside for a moment, and you put aside the way that people’s opinions of the two of them have been colored (pun intended) by their disparate media coverage, I want you go look at three things and then dispute my argument.
1) Look at Chad’s stats and Vick’s stats (and don’t forget to include Vick’s running stats)
2) Look at the caliber of the players Chad played with and the ones Vick played with
3) Look at their career records as a starter. It can be hard to find or figure out yourself (since you have to exclude all the games they’ve both missed, which is a lot for both of them), so I’ll give this one to you:Chad’s career record as a starter is 32-29 (.524) with a 2-1 record in the wildcard round and an 0-2 record in the divisonal round.
Michael Vick’s is 37-29-1 (.560) with a 1-0 record in the wildcard round, a 1-1 record in the divisional round, and an 0-1 record in the championship round.
You know all that blather about Chad having moxie and savvy and finding a way to win an making the plays when he needs to? Buttloads of NFL quarterbacks do all that, including Mr. Rape Stand himself, Mike Vick. And his offenses were just as potent (or impotent, depending on perspective) with a far weaker supporting cast. He accomplished more than Penny by any reasonable standard. But hey, at least Chad’s the best guy ever and getting a pass completed. Congrats.
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Sorry to say, it’s time for Chad to ‘complete’ his career elsewhere or carry a clipboard.
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Bent says: TJSC: Good post, but I hated Mike Vick even before the dog stuff came out. Did you have to use HIM as the comparison? You probably could have done the comparison with virtually any other quarterback and I probably would have agreed with you.
I once did a study on Mike Vick where I assumed that every time he ran the ball, it was a completed pass. His passer rating was still absolutely awful.
Most of all though, I just would have hated having to watch the guy play. Granted, watching Pennington can be frustrating too.
I actually think that before he went to jail, the media’s perception of Vick was that he was way better than Chad (and this makes sense given his 99m contract, compared to Pennington’s initial 64m, that was subsequently renegotiated down following his injury) and I felt that Vick was actually overrated. Remember Atlanta had one of the best running games in the league that whole time.
You talk about the talent he had around him as if it was substantially worse that what the Jets had. I’m not sure that’s true, especially over the last year where Pennington lost a bunch of games, enabling Vick to overtake him in terms of win %.
So, while I agree that the completion % stat has limited relevance, I struggle to agree that Vick is or was the better NFL QB, because I don’t rate him highly at all. If he IS better than Pennington then it’s because Vick is bad and Chad is even worse.
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Doesn’t it seem kind of strange that nobody wants this guy on their team except for us Jets fans?? We couldnt even trade Chad if we wanted to, unless it was for a second day pick. Maybe.
Seanmac, i never said that we had better receivers than some of the guys you mentioned but dont you dare put Chad pennington in the same sentence with any of those Qbs that you mentioned. Chad doesnt even belong in the same room with those guys. So cut the B.S. I understand what you were saying about the YAC but my point is that thats how Chad accumulates all of his yards.
Those guys that you mentioned can make plays all over the field and almost all of the Qb’s you mentioned have made the pro bowl/superball/hall of famers…
What has Chad done for you lately that you fight for him so much aside from getting injured every other season and DUMPING THE BALL OFF TO LEON WASHINGTON for 5 yard gains? You can even thank him for nearly ending Lavernious Coles career too..
Also, the Offensive Coordinators that we ‘ve had were good before they came to our team and were good after they left our team but one thing still remains the same and that is CHAD is still on our team and we have continued to struggle year after year on offense with his lack of ability to make plays when it really mattered the most. Thats what good QB’s do.. they make plays when it matters..
Tell me somthing Seanmac… what is CHad’s legacy going to be? what is he going to be known for? When it is all set and done, Chad has gotten us no where even before his injuries..
Granted, he is better than any Qb that we have had on our team in the last 20 years maybe, but that doesnt say much considering we havent won a superbolw in over 40 years either..
Open your eyes man… Chad has to go.. His stats look great but when it comes down to it, he cannt make a big play if his life depended on it.
How bad were some of those ints this year in the 4th quarter? He single handeldly gave the game to the other team in a handful of games this year in the 4th qt with his dumb lobb passes to the sideline that are jump balls on the 50 yard line..
Or what about the Giants game this year… we had that game won and every aspect of the Jets game was working and Chad game them the game… Buffalo anyone??
Give me a break with all your B.S. and stats Seanmac.. he completed 67% of his passes this year and won one game so he got benched, what does that tell you????
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Bent – Well, I didn’t pick Vick as a comparison, I was just responding to someone else’s question that he assumed was rhetorical (but the fact say otherwise).
I agree with you… I don’t think Vick was a good NFL QB, just a slightly above average one. The point of the post is that wherever you’d rank the NFL career of Michael Vick, you have to rank the NFL career of Chad Pennington as equal or lesser than Vick’s.
Vick was a wholly non-traditional NFL QB, in that he was wildly inaccurate for most of his career, but his singularly unique skill of running the football allowed him to be effective enough to make players who weren’t that good serviceable enough to be a competent NFL offense. His limitations in one aspect of quarterbacking (consistency in the intermediate passing game) were offset by his strength in another aspect (rushing for yardage and creating offensive space for others through the threat of his rushing for yardage). It’s tough to evaluate him compared to other NFL QB’s by traditional stats like QB rating and completion percentage because they undervalue his ability to change the way defenses played against him in favor of the Falcons.
Similarly, Chad is a non-traditional QB in that he was completely inept as a vertical passer, but his singularly unique skill of short-range accuracy allowed him to be effective enough to make players who weren’t that good serviceable enough to be a competent NFL offense as well. In Chad’s case, his strengths in one aspect (completion percentage) were offset by his limitations in another (downfield passing and the inability to keep defenses honest with the threat of downfield passing), and his traditional stats are overvalued because they don’t reflect his inability to cause defenses to respect his offense.
And even with all that, Vick played with an inferior group of backs, recievers, and offensive linemen (this one isn’t really all that close) and his team offenses were more productive by every meaningful ranking, and his teams won more games and advanced further in the postseason. Moreover, Vick vs. Pennington individually, Vick generated more offense in both yards and points and was a more feared offensive player that had to be schemed against. And, even though he came in the league a year later and got kicked out of the league a year earlier, Vick has still managed to stay on the field and start more games than Penny has. At some point, durability issues stop being an explanation and start becoming a crutch.
There’s not a GM in this league who would have taken Penny over Vick if given the opportunity.
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You said it best, Najy…
“He completed 67% of his passes this year and won one game so he got benched, what does that tell you?”
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Seanmac
Speaking of Stats….
Statistically speaking, J.P. Losman had a better and more impressive year (statistically) than Chad Penn in 2006. Where is J.P. now?
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mike G says:
FYI Chad Pennington is tops in the league for completion percentage on passes of 20 yards or more. Say what you want about Pennington but dont act like these stats are bull. The guy is the most accurate QB ive ever seen and despite his recent struggles, he looks like he has the ball on a string. Hes as accurate as they come.
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Plus I get…. He is accurate…
But does that really mean? and how does that translate to wins and making big plays? Because thats the bottom line…
Does accuracy=winning games? Apperently not because he is the most accurate Qb inthe league and hasnt won a damn thing since his career started.
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Mike G –
And even though Chad is “tops in the league for completion percentage on passes of 20 yards or more”, he’s still only got a career record as a starter of 32-29 with three atrocious playoff losses; in the five and a half seasons since he was named the starter in 2002 until he was benched for the second half of 2007 for ATROCIOUS, yet, surprisingly accurate, play , he’s missed 27 out of a possible 88 starts, or 30% of the games; and our aggregate record as a franchise during that five and a half year period is 40-48.
I’d say that Chad Pennington is WILDLY overrated, but I don’t think the rest of the league really ever thought he was that good in the first place. I’d say he’s overrated by Jets fans, though, possibly the most overrated Jet ever by Jets fans…
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Take a look at this article…
http://www.smittblog.blogspot.com/2007/10/chad-pennington-experience-needs-to-end.html
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And yet despite this distinct advantage, Pennington routinely completes 65% of his passes. No matter that most of those passes are less than 10 yards down the field (71% last year) or that his completion percentage of passes over 20 yards is below 40%, he still can be effective and the Jets still win games in which he starts. But in order to do that they have to craft a gameplan around his flaws while the defense takes advantage of them.
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I cant figure out how to put this article so I am jsut going to enter it paragraph by paragraph…
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Imagin you’ve got a running back with all the smarts in the world and outstanding skills. Prototypical size, great speed and top end vision. A borderline great athlete. He’s not most Barry Sanders but he’s also not Ron Dayne. There’s only one drawback: he can only run to the right. On the right hashmark, he runs to the sideline. 11 man run blitz coming up the right side, he runs right at it. He can’t run left. Just can’t do it. Now, would that strike you as problematic? Sure the other team would still have to guess when they’re gonna pass and when they’re gonna run, but they NEVER have to worry about a run to the left side of their defense. They can move their noseguard over the right guard the whole game and send run blitzes to that side whenever he’s in the game on running downs. At the very least it’s a decided disadvantage if not a fatal flaw, wouldn’t you agree? This guy wouldn’t get drafted or last a day in training camp no matter how strong a runner he was. He’s too limited. So if that’s true, I have to ask the question: how is Chad Pennington still the starting quarterback for the for the Jets?
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Chad Penn is one of the top decision-makers in the NFL. He’s also consistently one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league. The former Rhodes Scholar finalist has never had trouble managing an offense, leading teammates or convincing coaches that the fact he can’t throw the ball farther than 40 yards will negatively impact the team that he’s on. He seems like a hell of a nice guy. But let’s get back to that last part (the part before the nice guy part). Chad Pennington can’t throw the ball farther than most athletes in the NFL. I have friends who easily have stronger arms than Pennington. And while it’s not critical that a QB be able to throw a football with the pace of a Manning, McNabb or Browning Nagle (did you notice I left out an obvious name? That was on purpose. It’s not like that guy needs more press, even if it’s just the 30 or so people reading this.), it’s certainly not a plus that a team has to scrap every pass play over 30 yards or all out patterns over 8 because of your QB’s penchant for throwing 10 yard slants with the trajectory of a bell curve. And that’s what you have to do when Chad Pennington lines up behind your center.
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You see w/ Chad running the show, there are plays you cannot call. No deep corners past a two-deep safety who bit on the play-action, no twelve yard outs and no zone busting slants between the corner, behind the linebacker and just before the safety comes down that has be thrown with a certain, let’s say, zip. Instead you have to gain that yardage or score that touchdown through other means. You have to get creative. You’re throwing wide receiver screens and RB wheels, and a ton of comebacks forcing the playmakers to make plays after they catch the ball. The defense is never stretched or scared or confused. The safeties are never looking over their shoulders and are always peeking in the backfield and the corners know that after their first 6 or 7 backpedals steps they need to plant and make a move (likely towards the middle of the field) because the pass is never going over their heads. And yet despite this distinct advantage, Pennington routinely completes 65% of his passes. No matter that most of those passes are less than 10 yards down the field (71% last year) or that his completion percentage of passes over 20 yards is below 40%, he still can be effective and the Jets still win games in which he starts. But in order to do that they have to craft a gameplan around his flaws while the defense takes advantage of them
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Now listen, I don’t pretend know all the ins and outs of the quarterback position in the NFL or the development of Kellen Clemens and I’m certainly oversimplifying this situation with the Jets, but I do know Jets run one of the least exciting NFL offenses with some of the most exciting NFL talent. They are a loss away from full-on panic mode and while I don’t necessarily believe that this team has been “figured out” or that they can’t possibly win with Chad Pennington as their QB, their Quarterback limits what can be expected out of the Jets offense and makes them at least “more predictable” than a team with a stronger-armed quarterback. It made sense to keep Chad in when you had Vinny and Brooks sitting behind him, but now you’ve got a guy who you know can throw and who looks like he can lead. It’s time to open it up and force teams to defend you differently and stretch the legs of Coles, Smith and Cotchery. It’s time for Chad to move on.
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With the skill position guys they field, with the speedy Coles, the versatility of Leon Washington and Brad Smith and size and emerging skill set of Cotchery, they have the guys who can break a game open. This team has guys who can put a ton of pressure on the defense. Laveranues Coles was born to run deep posts and Cotchery can bully corners on deep outs while Brad Smith could turn into a latter day Hines Ward. That threesome could be lethal or at the very least could convince defensive coordinators that it was worth covering them after the first 20 yards. But alas, they are hemmed in by a weak-armed quarterback and a “death by a thousand 3 yard WR screens” offense. Those guys have to be pulling their hair out. And Jets fans don’t have a hair left after half a dozen years of this. .
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Normally, when you have a weakness, you usually try and hide it. But when that weakness touches the ball on EVERY F@#KING DOWN, that’s a tough thing for a team to hide. Even for a genius 1-3 coach who just lost to one of the worst teams in the NFL. It’s been done, sure (see the 2006 Bears and 2000 Ravens). But those teams were setup to win despite the quarterback. They had top 10 all-time defenses and ball control run offenses. They didn’t have the weapons or the need to stretch the field nor did they have a QB outside of their starter who was talented enough to be on the field. But the Jets have a horrible defense and a backup QB who is likely holds in his hands the future of the entire organization
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Najy, Ive seen the stat several times during Jet games, and its funny because the reason they show it is because people (like a lot of you) make the claim that Pennington has such a high completion % only because he dinks and dunks. This is not true. If youre accurate on 5 yard throws, youre accurate on 30 yard throws. Or visa versa. For example, Eli manning is as inaccurate as they come, whether he is throwing a 30 yard pass or a 5 yard dump off to brandon jacobs. Accuracy is accuracy. So najy, Yes, Chad Pennington is top 5 in the nfl in completion percentage of passes over 20 yards. look it up yourself, i knwo its true.
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mike G,
You should read the article because it says otherwise… plus, throwing accuratley for 5 yards does not mean you can throw accurately 20 yards..
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And just so you know i’m not a chad fan. Im no longer a chad supporter, i want clemens as our starter. Im just defending the truth.
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tommie-
Michael Vick was the greatest running quarterback of all time. As a passer, he was worse than Josh McCown. He doesn’t belong in the same sentence as Pennington and, contrary to your assertion, just about every GM in the league would have taken a healthy Pennington over Vick at any stage of his development. Pennington, when healthy, has spent most of his career being an above-average quarterback with moments of dominance. Vick spent his entire career being in the bottom quarter of the league as a passer, which is why despite having the best running attack in the league year after year, the Falcons never fielded a competent offense.
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Najy, I read the article, and i loved it. Like i just said im through with chad as our qb. enough is enough. just give the guy the credit he deserves. hes unbelievable accurate passer, no matter how far he is throwing the ball.
“plus, throwing accuratley for 5 yards does not mean you can throw accurately 20 yards..”
see my last post about Eli manning. Accuracy is accuracy.
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where did u find that stat, post a site, or compare it to other qbs. 40% where did u get that? did u just make it up?
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put the above site and combine it with this …
2007/10/chad-pennington-experience-needs-to-end.html
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To put my point in context, between 2002-2005, Chad Pennington had an excellent completion percentage of passes *between 20-40 yards.
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HAHA… comon man… he was injured for like 4 out of those 5 years…
He probably threw like 5 passes and complete 3 of them for over 20 yards…
Did those passes actually travel 20 yards in the air? or did cotchery catch them 10 yds downfield and run for another 15?
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Najy, you do realize youre using a blog post by someone with no affiliation to any credited source. Whoever wrote that blog post clearly made up the 40% because it is not true. There is no reliability to that article.
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yes, the passes have to travel for over 20 yards to count.
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Between 2002 and 2005 Chad Pennington had 99 completions of 20 yards or more. Thats a lot more than 5 buddy
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Go to nfl.com and look up Chad Penn.
Then go to whatever year you want and look at the situational stats… The guy sucks as the game goes on and he has to make more and more passes..
LOOK that up buddy.
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i just proved u wrong and now ur acting like a little girl. ur pathetic
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the guy started 12 games or more 3 times for us and led us to the playoffs each time. have some respect and appreciation
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That link as absolutley nothing on it.. You gotta look at his SITUATIONAL STATS so that you can see how much he really sucks…
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tommie, you’re completely underestimating the help that Vick had around him in ATL. They were a great rushing team year in and year out, and that was much more because of their o-line and Alex Gibbs’ coaching than because of Vick. Gibbs came to ATL in 2004 – here’s how the Falcons ranked in NFL rushing for the 3 years after that: 1st, 1st, 1st. They gained over 8,000 yards on the ground in those 3 years. Vick had 2,400 of them, so he helped their running game but wasn’t the main factor in it. How about in passing (where he obviously did play the main role)? They finished 30th, 27th, and 32nd.
By the end of 2006, every GM in the league except Atlanta’s knew that Matt Schaub was their best option at QB, because Vick still hadn’t learned the basics of running a pro-style offense. To compare Vick to Pennington – man, it isn’t even close.
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“Then go to whatever year you want and look at the situational stats… The guy sucks as the game goes on and he has to make more and more passes..”
WHAT DOES THAT HAVE TO DO WITH COMPLETION %?????????????????? I SAID I DONT LIKE PENNINGTON. WERE TALKING ABOUT HIS COMPLETION PERCENTAGE. YOU WERE WRONG END OF STORY
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I KNOW HE SUCKS!!!!!!
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lol.. calm down Mike, lets not get into this again, we went down that road before and it wasnt pretty.
You didnt prove anything wrong. That link shows nothing on it what so ever.. you gota go to the situational stats and look at he stats and see how much he sucks as the game goes on and he has to make more and more passes..
That should keep you busy for a while
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1. Pennington sucks
2. Hes extremely accurate, including passes over 20 yards.
Those are my 2 points. Since you agree with the 1st and the 2nd is a fact, I dont see what your argument is.
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The argument is the second is not a fact… Whatever, this is stupid.
I already looked his stats over 20+ yards as his pass atempts increase and they are pathetic..
If you want to look them up, I gave you the place to look at them. That link you sent me had no info what so ever on it and did not pertain to our convo at all.
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im looking at the situational stats now, the most glaring stat is his qb rating in the 4th quarter within 7 points is 58.3 …. that is the reason we cant win with pennington. Do u understand i dont like him? i dont want him as our qb. can we just give the guy the credit he deserves, hes extremely accurate!
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Najy,
You are wildly overestimating the quality of the Jets offensive weapons, let’s just say that. Laverneous Coles is not, nor has he ever been a vertical threat. His reputation for being a blazing deep speed guy is based almost entirely on his (erroneous) 40 time coming out of Florida State, but in the pros with multiple
quarterbacks on two separate team, he’s been solidly below average as a deep receiver. He’s not in the same class as Santana Moss, who he was brought in to replace. Coles is a tough medium route runner who would be a good number two on a team with a halfway decent offense. He’s not a legitimate number one receiver for any team that intends to put up big points. Brad Smith is a bad receiver. Maybe he’ll be a better receiver at some point, but at the moment, he’s not. Leon Washington was terrible last year. He’s a good return man, but he was worse than Thomas Jones running behind the same line, and Thomas Jones was not good. The Jets best offensive player by far is Cotchery, and it should be noted that Cotchery’s production tailed off once Pennington was replaced by Clemens. Their second best offensive weapon has been Chris Baker, but the line is so bad that they haven’t been able to afford to let him run patterns.At Football Outsiders, we’re in the process of converting our stats a bit. Here are the new ones for Pennington’s career. DYAR is a number that suggests how much yardage a player generated above what a backup level player would do when in the same situation and facing the same set of defenses. True Yards include yardage generated by penalty and remove sack yardage. DVOA is a player’s effectiveness on a per-down basis in getting his team to a down and distance situation where they are statistically favored to convert a first down.
Pennington:
2007 DYAR 140 (24th) True Y 1811 (26th) DVOA -3.6% (26th)
2006 DYAR 740 (7th) True Y 3798 (8th) DVOA 10.4% (13th)
2004 DYAR 956 (10th) True Y 804 (12th) DVOA 25.9% (9th)
2003 DYAR 220 (20th) True Y 2096 (23rd) DVOA -0.7% (19th)
2002 DYAR 1414 (2nd) True Y 3840 (10th) DVOA 40.6% (1st)That’s Chad’s career in a nutshell. He was either the best or the second best QB in the league in 2002, he was a bit below average after returning from injury in 2003, he was in the upper echelon of quarterbacks in 2004/6, somewhere in the 7-12 range, and he had a bad year in 2007. There are those of us who chalk it up to a combination of a week one injury and a bad surrounding cast on offense, and those of us who have somehow convinced ourselves that the bad surrounding cast is actually the 1999 Rams and that the only problem was the quarterback’s lack of arm strength.
Incidentally, here is Kellen Clemens’ year with the same cast of burgeoning All-Star receiving talent:
DYAR -136 (41st) True Yards 1413 (31st) DVOA -18.9%
And Kellen Clemens can make all the throws.
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Attempts 21-Through-30 54attemps 38completions 70.4 compl %
THATS GOOD!!!!!!!!!
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Seanmac,
As I am reading your post, Cotchery had his best game in his career when Clemens was his QB.
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Sorry Najy but its not 40% its 70.1 for passes 21-30 yards
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21-30 yards is short range?????????
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Was that in 2002 before his injuries when we all agreed at that poin that Chad was our franchise QB..
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passes between 21-30 yards
chad pennington 70.4%
peyton manning 66.9%
tom brady 69.5% -
I think Cotchery’s numbers wouldn’t have dropped if he held onto a couple of balls. I felt Clemens used him better. The surrounding cast is not “great” I wont argue that. They’re all bums. I know you can defend the stats, but Chad was sacrificing people all 06 and was in no way an upper echelon QB. I still love him tho. Just want him as a coach.
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accuracy is accuracy, pennington has the ability to put the ball where he wants with ease. His problem is clearly his sideline throws. but as far as the rest of his game, he is well known for putting the ball where his receiver has the best chance to get it.
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completion percentage stays consistent whether its a 5 yard pass or a 50 yard pass.
for example,
eli manning:
1-10 59.0%
11-20 57.0%
21-30 52.6%
31- 59.6% -
Accuracy is not accuracy…
Do you think Tom Brady can throw a hail mary as accuratley as he can in a 10 yard pass?
Can Chad even throw a Hail Mary???
I am giong to have to disagree on that statement that accuracry is accuracy.
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Hail mary has nothing to do with it. most qbs dont even throw a hail mary in a season. Ive had enough of this, i proved u wrong i have nothign else to say
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1-10 59.0%
11-20 57.0%
21-30 52.6%
31- 59.6%That does not mean 1-10 yards… it means 1-10 attempts..
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lets just leave it at chad pennington sucks and thats that
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Dont be a baby about this… if you are going to say something, make sure its right before you make accusations…
You cant prove me wrong if you cant even read the stats sheet correctly..
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you cant become the most accurate qb in nfl history without actually being accurate. hes clearly an accurate passer, its not debateable.
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sorry but it is impossible to find specific statistics of chad penningtons completion percentage based on how long the pass was. Have u found it?
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That is not the issue.. Chad an accurate QB is a fact.
But he gets that reputation from his short range game. Chad is not feared for his accuracy downfield and that is a fact too.
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I hate arguing with fellow jet fans, but you cant dispute that he is accurate, its a fact.
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ur right, hes not feared for it, but when he does throw deep he is as accurate as any
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seanmac, pound4pound –
you’re both conflating the argument here. You keep talking about Chad being a better passer than Vick. Nobody would argue that. What I said was, Vick was a better quarterback than Chad. Being a quarterback is more than passing the ball, it’s moving your offense. If you’re looking strictly at passes, Fran Tarkenton wouldn’t be a top ten NFL QB, but most NFL historians and most of his peers and contemporaries put Tarkenton in the top 5, because his game was more than passing. He used his legs to open up the game and create an offense that moved the ball.
Michael Vick was an atrocious NFL thrower, but he was an above average NFL QB because he successfully directed and offense that moved the ball, and, at his peak, he was just as good (if not better) than Penny. He had tons of flaws, just like Penny, and eventually, league defenses adjusted to them both. But all of this nonsense about Chad being a top 10 QB is just sickeningly wrong… Chad is living off the memory of one good season (2002). Aaron Brooks, Jon Kitna, Daunte Culpepper, Mike Vick, and many others have done the exact same thing. Stop cherrypicking stats and look at what the man has actually done as an NFL QB.
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Lets agree to this…
His best year was in 2002 before his injuries and he was able to make almost every throw on the field.
Those days are behinde him and he needs to go!
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his “td pass” to chris baker against cleveland 2 seasons ago was probably the most accurate pass ive ever seen
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najy i dont think we ever disagreed on that. I know he needs to go, last year was his last chance in my book
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he does need to go. He was awesome in 2002 though. those injuries really killed his career
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I will take 22 tds and 6 ints and over 3000 yds any day of the year…
But that Chad was a broken wrist and 2 shoulder surgeries ago and he is gone now..
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and I think anyone who thinks othewise is basing their opinion soley on heart and love for Chad…
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i agree najy.
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tommie, Vick supporters always use the argument that his strength as a runner was worth more than his woes as a passer, and it’s simply not true. This notion that Vick had some magical ability to move the chains… well, here’s the simplest way I can address that:
Total first downs (NFL rank)
2003: NYJ – 22nd, ATL – 30th
2004: NYJ – 10th, ATL – 19th
2005: Chad missed almost the whole season
2006: NYJ 19th, ATL 20thIf Vick was so great with his legs that it overcame his awful passing, why doesn’t it show up in actually helping his team move the chains? Despite his reputation, Vick was never an above-average QB. He was never an average starting QB. Now I’m not saying Pennington was the second coming of John Elway, but if you’re comparing him to Vick, we definitely got the right man.
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Tommie,
That’s simply not true and, if you think about it, it’s clear why it isn’t true- because passing generates much more yardage than running. Look, here are the DPAR numbers (points generated above replacement level) for Chad and Vick. I’ll show Vick’s passing and rushing splits and just compare the total numbers:
Chad:
2007 DPAR 15.6
2006 DPAR 52.2
2004 DPAR 77.2
2003 DPAR 17.3
2002 DPAR 110.7
Vick:
2006 DPAR -6.3 + 32.4= 26.1
2005 DPAR 12.9 + 21.7= 34.6
2004 DPAR -18.5+ 29.3= 10.8
2003 DPAR -2.9 + +9.1= 6.2
2002 DPAR 59.6 + 21.8= 81.4Pennington has been more valuable than Vick in every single season, despite the fact that Vick has been far and away the most dominant rushing quarterback in the league over that time. Passing trumps running, it’s that simple. It shows up in the team offensive numbers, too:
NYJ:
2006 DVOA 2.8% (Passing 9.5%)
2004 DVOA 20% (Passing 25.9%)
2002 DVOA 18.6% (Passing 35.4%)Those are Pennington’s three years of being healthy and the starter for most of the season, so the numbers aren’t diluted by other players’ performance. Atlanta’s offense under Vick:
2006 DVOA -2.1% (Passing -17%)
2005 DVOA 5.1% (Passing -6.5%)
2004 DVOA -6.2% (Passing -36.1%)
2002 DVOA 8.1% (Passing 10%)It really hasn’t been comparable.
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Oh, and just to touch on the fourth quarter thing. Chad was dreadful in the fourth quarter this year, and the offensive numbers bear that out. In late and close situations, the Jets offense had a DVOA of -27.3%, which is 31st in the league; only the Rams were worse. But…in 2006 the Jets were 5th best in the league in the exact same situation. In 2004, they were 9th best.
So if you want to make the argument that Pennington deteriorated physically between 2006 and 2007 and that it showed up in his fourth quarter play, that’s one thing. But if you are making some kind of general overarching statement about how his weak arm has always doomed the team in the fourth quarter, that’s really something else, and a completely unsubstantiated something else at that.
It’s pretty simple- either Chad had a bad year, in no small part as a product of circumstances, or his skill set is deteriorating. If it was the former, which I believe, he’ll very likely be the starting quarterback this year. If it was the latter, then he won’t be able to beat out Clemens. But seeing how bad Clemens was in the same circumstances, I’m pretty inclined to believe it was the former.
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Najy,
I can’t speak for others, but my defending Chad has nothing to do with 2002 and everything to do with 2006. In 2006-which is to say one year removed-Chad was about the 10th best quarterback in football on a team with no running game, no defense, a mediocre offensive line and an offense that was completely unable to take advantage of his strengths (i.e. play action). A guy who can operate as the 10th best quarterback in football with not much support around him is a valuable commodity in the league, and I’m in no rush to throw him out the window because the team had a bad year.
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I understand what your saying seanmac… but that year, but I think we only beat 1 team that year that had a winning record and that was the Pats.
So the level of comp wasnt that stiff that year but thats fine, we dont make the schedule.
Looking at his stats, the most glaring problem that I see is his play when the Jets fall behind…
When the Jets were behind by 9-16 points in the the game, Chad was awful.. 3 tds, 6 ints, and a rating of 75%…
I am not even going to talk about his arm strenght…
Chad is not clutch and cannt make big plays when it counts.. Stats prove that.
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Also in 2006, Chad had a Qb rating of 59.7 in the 4th quarter, which is when his gameplay matters the most.
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No, Najy, they don’t. What the stats prove is that Chad didn’t make big plays late last year. The year before, he did. And when you are playing from behind and you have to telegraph that you’re passing, you’re more dependent on your offensive line. In 2006, the line was mediocre. In 2007, it was one of the bottom three units in the league.
If the line is better, the quarterback play will be better.
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Sean, my mistake.. those were 2007.
2006 stituational stats were:
-74 Qb rating in the 4th
-63 Qb rating playing behind by 1-8 points
-79 qb rating playing behind by 9-16 points
71.5 qb rating playing in the 4th within 7 points
-66.6 qb rating in the last 2 minutes of the halves.
-76.2 qb rating in the redzone
-73.2 qb rating when the games were tied.Its clear that when it mattered the most, Chad was not able to perform and assert himself
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I’m not sure why the game “matters the most” at those points. If the quarterback plays badly in the first half and puts the team behind, that’s as relevant as how he plays in the end. When a pitcher gives up runs in the first and second, no one ever gives him credit for then pitching well in the seventh because “it matters more.” Pet peeve of mine.
Anyway, traditional numbers are bad because they don’t in any way account for the quality of opposition. 2006 is a great year to look at, actually, because the Jets played a bunch of teams with dreadful offenses and pretty good defenses, so if you just look at traditional stats, you don’t realize that offense was decent and the defense was awful.
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sjfalcon2001 says:
Honestly, I’m getting tired of this. I know its our slow season, but why don’t we just agree to disagree and let COACH MANGINI decide who should start. Neither side is going to convince the other. Neither Clemens nor Pennington should be declared the starter until preseason when we’ve had a chance to see what they can do. Last year may be a statistical anomaly for both players due to the offensive line play, so let’s just see what both of them can do with a better line. Maybe after a year Pennington’s foot has healed and his arm strength has improved. Maybe the kid lit a fire under him. We haven’t seen them play since December and who knows what kind of shape they are in. The chances are much better for KC at age 25 than Pennington at age 32 (by the time the season starts), but maybe we can get 2002 Chad back with a better line and consistent running plays. Chad’s best weapon has always been the play action pass which was nonexistent the last 2 years.
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seanmac,
The stats show that when Chad needed to press the issue and force some plays, that he would come up short.
As long as the game is close and all Chad has to do is manage the game and take his shots when they are there, then he accelerates…
But when the pressure is on and he has to make a play, he comes up short to our dismay. As long as you dont ask Chad to go out and win you the game, then he is a top 10 Qb like you said before. But once you put the game on his shoulders and ask him to go out and win it for you, he fails miserably.
I jsut want whats best forthe team sean… and I have seen what Chad can do for us and I want to give someone else a fair chance.
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Clemens will get a fair chance- all he needs to do is to beat out Chad in training camp. He got more than a fair chance last year in that Pennington was pulled to give him a look (it wasn’t a performance question) and Clemens came in and struggled mightily. I don’t blame him for that- he was dealing with the same terrible offensive line Chad was, and he spent time with an even worse group of receivers thanks to injury. But it was what it was.
Anyway, I’m with sjfalcon- the staff will make a determination. When we get a full training camp and some preseason games to look things over, we’ll have a much better feel for whether Chad is back or done and whether Clemens has progressed or hasn’t. Until then, we’re just going to gnash our teeth endlessly over a bad year.
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yup… I think all this anger and anomousity and arguing and questioning is all due to the season we had last year…
Couple wins in the begining of next year will calm everyone down.. including myself..
It’d be interesting to see a breakdown that organized the completion percentage by the distance of the pass attempt. For example:
Dan Marino
1-10 Yard Attempts: 259
1-10 Yard Completions: 150
10-15 Yard Attempts: 400
10-15 Yard Completions: 102
on and on…
Saying that Chad’s got the best completion percentage might be like saying a batter who bunts every time has the best ball-to-bat ratio. Hell, I could probably complete 8/10 five yard passes, and I can’t even throw a spiral.