Link: Clayton Lists Top Five Surprise Teams
With all the flurry that ESPN has made over the release of their new power rankings, John Clayton names the top five teams that he thinks are poised to surprise in 2008. Clayton’s article seems overly reliant on strength of schedule as a central point, stating that for every 0.020 variation plus or minus in strength of schedule, it would equate to an added win or loss. In his article, the Jets round out the top five.
The schedule, using the .020 formula, is 3.3 games easier, going from a .523 to .457. The biggest hope for the Jets rides with the running offense and the defense. The Jets went 4-12 last year despite an 1,119-yard season from Thomas Jones.
If the Jets find a way to get into the top 10 in rushing, they have a chance for a three-game improvement. They finished 19th in rushing last year, averaging 106.3 yards a game on the ground. Top 10 rushing teams usually fall into that seven- to nine-win projection. Eric Mangini also hopes that Pace, Vernon Gholston and Jenkins can pull the Jets’ defense out of the bottom four in football.
With Bill Callahan coaching, Faneca and Woody up front and Tony Richardson and Bubba Franks likely in the mix, the running game can’t help but improve, but I don’t know if it’s a top ten unit. As much as Clayton focuses on the running game, I wish he’d written a little bit more on the defense. If adding two front line starters and a rookie pass rusher don’t pull that unit out of the “bottom four,” then I don’t know what will!
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I don’t think 7 wins by the Jets will “surprise” anyone.
7 wins would be a huge let-down I’d say 9-7 is acceptable but 10-6 is what will get us the playoffs and I think the Jets are capable.
He’s not going out on much of a limb is he? In his list of top five disappointments will he have the 13-3 Pats?
If our running game isnt real good this year then I simply dont understand the nfl. If Ferguson, Faneca, Mangold, Moore, Woody, and Richardson and Franks cant get it done, then what will?
Too much emphasis is placed on numbers. At the end of the day the only numbers that count are the W’s. If you look at the Jets stats since Mangini has taken the reings they are not indicative of how competitive they have been in most of their games . Some of their W’s have been earned with smoke and mirrors. This knowing how to win. He is still working on formulating his team. This year he is getting close…very close.
were going 11-5 thats a gurantee i went over our schedule a dozen times and if we split with the patriots and bills we could go 12-4
lets go j-e-t-s!
It totally rest on the arm of our starting quarterback, if Clemens does not produce in the first couple games, or vice versa, then we will need to make a change to the other quarterback. I think that we will be able to win without great qb play. We are going to run the ball and get to the quarterback and if we do that there is no reason to think that we can’t beat the Patriots. Wait until Moss get hurt this year or loses interest. He is due for a meltdown again, I hate Moss and Tom Brady!
11-5 is going out on the ledge, but we will split with the the Patiots. We had our “sack exchange” how about our “hack&sack” Jets. If we cant sack them we’ll hack them. Sack exchange was good for Shea. Hack&Hack is the Medowlands.
if TJ ran for 1100 yards behind that god awful o-line…what makes you guys thing he can’t run for 1500 yards behind this much better line…and leon could get anywhere from 700-1000yards himself…
are defense should be able to stop the run…i trust jenkins to shut down the middle forcing teams to run to the outside where our LBs will make the stop…
if chad doesn’t beat be out KC in training camp by a mile i see mangini going with KC…i say our passing game should be much improved depending on our recievers if they can hold onto KC’s throws…
are pass defense should be much better than last year…we should be able to get twice as much if not more pressure on QBs this year…causing turnovers… well thats how i see it…plain and simple…just my visions and thoughts…
if they jets get good pass rush and a solid running game(which they should with tj and co) i think gang green cud pull of a 9-7 season, esp. with our eaasy schedule
Dakar i agree! u seem right on except maybe a little exargeration with our running game numbers for this year. Remember we also have chattman competing for some touches at RB.
Jenkins should help to stop that inside running game as well as apply pressure up the middle allowing ellis, thomas, pace, and gholston to pressure and sack the QB. This in turn will force the QB to throw the ball within 3 seconds as compared to what seemed like forever last year which led to recievers being open. Corners can only cover for so long. So our pass defense should be improved also. Revis and Rhodes are studs. Think Poteat is solid enough and we will see what happens with Miller after his Knee surgery and if Lowery can emerge.
Offensively i hope our line is much improved, should be better with Faneca and hopefully he will help Ferguson and Mangold. I hope ferguson improves and doesnt play like last year. Woody- afraid we might of reached with him only playing 5 games at that position, but he played well during those five games.
Hopefully our improved run game will make things easier for KC, and our OL will be able to give him more than 2 seconds to throw the ball. I want KC as our starter and to be the only QB working with the starters so they can learn to catch his balls. Think some of our WR got used to catching those soft floaters from CP that they forgot how to catch a ball with a little zip on it.
Dustin Keller should open things up offensively too, creating mismatches on the opposing defense which will help to free up Coles and Cotchery. And hopefully in the Redzone Marcus Henry will become a threat for the high jump balls in the corner. Hopefully Baker comes back and plays, cause i think the team will do great with multiple combination for the double TE formation with our 3 TE.
We have a real weak schedule- besides facing the Patriots and the Chargers the next best team is the Bills. win total should be between 8-11. Cant wait for the season to beginning. Team made huge changes this offseason.
brett…….if we go 9-7 in the afc we wont make the playoffs cleveland went 10-6 last yr, and didnt make the playoffs lets hope we can at least go 11-5 that’s the only way we will get in,,,
It might even go down to division wins, so its important to have a winning record it our division.
I think were going to need at least one LB to stand out. The Defense needs another voice other than Kerry Rhodes. Losing Vilma wont be as bad if Harris can totally groom into that player I think we so desperately need.
Our run defense is suspect. We give up too many yards early in the game and play catch up because of it. If the D can hold its own, I think we will lead the league in TOP, or be one of the leaders. Mangini doesnt get enough credit for time management. That’s where we will suprise everyone. I mean, how many games did we lose last season by 10 or fewer? The neccessary moves were made to strengthen TOP by upgrading our run and hopefully stopping the run. We need a QB thats going to help with this. We can make the playoffs if we stick with this formula.
We should be at the least, very competitive this year. My big gripe that nobody is talking about is: Damien Woody got benched last year on the Lions’ O-Line. How is he going to improve over Clement?
I’m not worried about their ability to run the ball. I’m more concerned with their ability to stop the run. If the defense is unable to get off the field, it doesn’t matter how much they’ve improved the offensive line. Yes, they made an effort to improve on defense, but some of those players are big gambles. Jenkins in playing in a new position and Pace might be little more than a one-hit wonder ala Brian Thomas. Three additional wins is a reasonable projection unless the defense is dramatically improved.
Dan C- Woody got benched as a guard but started the last five games as RT and did pretty good- thats why we gave him the money. like i stated before, we might of reached for getting him, not sure if he is worth all that money with little starting experience at that postition.
RalphinHP and J. – Harris showed he is a stud as MLB- he recorded 5 sacks last season and didnt start the first few games. Studs on Defense- Rhodes, Revis, Harris, Jenkins clogging the middle hopefully. Pace, BT, Gholston hopefully will be beast too rushing the passers and closing off the edge running game. The last couple of years we couldnt stop the run in the 3-4 because D Robertson was undersize at 6′1″ 310. Jenkins is a big beast- 6′4″ 350-390lbs we want him between 350-370. No more running up the middle on us, we should be much improved on the short yard run defense. Jenkins clogging up the middle and occupying 2 OL will allow our pass rushers to rush the passer- ellis, thomas, pace, gholston, rhodes, harris. this defense should be pretty good. Jenkins role is to clog up the middle and occupy 2 OL letting the LB to make tackles and sacks. BT sucked last year cause he got complacent with his new big money contract and because often he had to beat double teams because robertson wasnt being double teamed cause he was too small for DT in 3-4 system.
The more we run the ball the better our defense will be. Running the ball chews up the clock and leaves the defense on the field for less time. The less time we have the defense on the field the better. The additions we made to the defense will also help us improve. We have a better fit at nose tackle, who will eat up blockers and allow our playmakers, to make more plays. I am concerned about the lack of a solid number 2 corner, but hopefully we will be able to make up for it with the pass rushers we have added.
An improved running game, which should be a guarantee with the amount of blocking talent we brought in.
Next an improved running game, should hopefully open up our passing game.
Vice versa, our new field stretching TE, should help the running game.
With an easier schedule, the fact that we lost some real close games last year playing with the wrong players, and hopefully that we now have the right players, I believe 10-6 or 11-5 are real possibilities.
As for QB. I think we are setting up a system that requires smart play not athleticism. Ahem… It just may end up being the Chad, if he can manage the game without the costly mistakes.
The addition of a ‘rookie pass-rusher’ is never a certainty in shoring up a weak front seven. I think analysts/journalists will always be hesitant to give the label of ’solid d’ to a team that finishes in the bottom half of the league in both sacks and the top half of rushing yards allowed during the prior season. Pass rushers from the hands-down DE position historically take a year or two to get up to speed and fully understand the defensive scheme of a unit. Houston’s Mario Williams, Philly’s Trent Cole and the Giants’ Osi Umenyiora are all examples of players that did not become solid until year 2 or 3 (all of them were in the top-10 for sacks during the 2007 season). Linebackers tend to adjust quicker to the pros and it shows as LBs have won DROY for five years in a row now. It really depends on how the coaching staff uses VG and the speed in which he picks the game up. I personally think he’ll be a very effective player early on but only time will tell.
if TJ ran for 1100 yards behind that god awful o-line…what makes you guys thing he can’t run for 1500 yards behind this much better line…and leon could get anywhere from 700-1000yards himself…
i really dont see these #s as being exagerated at all…like i said and what is a fact is TJ ran for 1100 yards and LEON ran for 350 behind the god awful o-line…so adding 400 yards to TJ and anywhere from 350-650 yards for LEON isn’t out of reach…and chatman really isn’t gonna touch the ball as backup…LEON’s a playmaker that needs to get the ball…and TJ is the man to set LEON up…just my thoughts…
I think Chatman will play a series a game actually to spell TJ.
And Chatman is not just serviceable he is good.
Leon will still get his touches though because he will be in more sets than Chatman and will also catch passes.
I think Keller will also not see a lot of catches but will be used to block DBs in the triple TE sets and then they will release him for a couple or few long passes a game.
who cares what the Media thinks.
These media guys do not know the team the way the bleeding fans do. That is why, the media is consistently wrong. You think that they put all these hours to analyze the situation of every team ?
I don’t know why so many think we have an easy schedule? Remeber how we finished last year, we were a bad team! Also, we have four west coast trips!
I am excited by the offseason moves but the O-line will need to play together as a unit- you can have a pro-bowler at every position but if they don’t jell as a unit we may only improve marginally. Lets hope they can controll the Game and TJ goes for 1,800 this season!
The tough part is that our first three games may tell alot about the team’s ability to jell. After Miami, NE and SD could spell trouble or prove the team’s worth. The upside is that, after Arizona we could be 2 and 2 with a bye to fix what’s necessary to start a win streak that could carry the Jets all the way to the playoffs. Cin, Oak, KC, before Buffalo could mean the Jets are 2 and 1 in the division if they win. StL should be another win before NE again. This schedule should keep spirits up even with the travel to the west coast. I think the team will have to be of playoff caliber to go the final leg as Den, Buf, and Sea will be real tests. Nice to have Miami last to see how badly we need that game!
Also, very excited about the Jenkins move, I’ve been beating that drum for two years to upgrade that position! D. Harris has to be psyched! Think what he was able to do behind Robertson last year, imagin the production for this season! psyched!
Eastside Kahulu,
There are also pass rushers who came into the nfl and had an immediate impact. Demarcus Ware, Shawn Merriman and John Abraham. Abraham was a beast in his rookie year before he got hurt. All he did was come in on third down and rush the QB from the outside LB- sounds like something Gholston will be doing. I’d be surprised if the Jets ask Gholston to do too much, his first year goal should be to rush the QB.
On paper, the defense and the new o line looks good. They just have to gel and prove it on the field.
I prefer the media downplays the Jets, I feel like the Jets do well when they arent expected to do well(2004 & 2006).
We need to stay under the radar, last year the so called pros had us as a team of contention, then the season began and so did the losses- games that we should have won we lost, we couldn’t fall on a win- and then later in the season we began to be happy with close games which makes me sick, we need to take one game at a time and play for wins, not be satisfied with close games, I hope the pros have us at dead last at the start of the season, we are not the a team trying to buy a ring with top rated players, we signed top talent that fit our system and ya we are in a win now mentality, who isn’t!!!!!
BIggest mistake everyone makes when looking at the schedule is basing wins and losses on how well opposing teams did last year. In many cases how those teams performed last year has little or no bearing on how well they will perform this year, and the Jets are the perfect example of that.
In 2006 they went 10-6, made the playoffs and as a result going into last season they were looked at as tough opponent, and they were to some extent, but the bottom line is by the middle of the year “good” teams were looking at the jets on the sked and marking it down as a win. This season if a team is playing the Jets, and someone wants to calculate their schedule *strength* isn’t it going to be greatly reduced due to the fact the Jets went 4-12 (.250) last year? Judging from the comments I can surmise that most of us would be greatly surprised (and tremendously disappointed) if the Jets were to perform at that level again, but that is exactly what these strength of schedule predictions are counting on.
Parcells used to say it all the time and apparently it stuck in Mangini’s head as well, next year is not gaurunteed, each year is its own unique entity, just because you performed to a certain level last year doesn’t make it the starting point for this season.
And one other thing I think everyone here is overlooking in their predictions, the Jets have added A LOT of new faces this offseason, and while this will result in improvement in the long term there could very well be some growing pains in the short term. Cohesiveness is very important on both sides of the ball (That is why the best teams year in and year out have very little roster turnover) and this usually comes with shared time in the trenches, as good as our coaching staff is it is tough to simulate game action in practice. I would expect the Jets to be much tougher in November than they are in September based on this.
Hey Kahaluu – ever hear of Javon Kearse, Terrell Suggs, Peppers, and ex-jets Hugh Douglas and Abraham? All were rookie high-impact DEs. Granted they are not OLB-hybrids, but your claim is false. Front line D-linemen can have a significant impact in their first year.
It’s a smart article by Clayton. People rarely acknowledge the role that strength of schedule has in effectively determining the seasons for all but the very good and very bad teams. Add in teams returning their starting quarterbacks after a season’s worth of backup talent and you are in very good shape. (And of course the Jets hit the double-double back in 2006, getting Chad back and also having one of the easiest schedules in the league.)
Something else that I think needs acknowledgment is that FAs want to play here and I know there is a lot of money involved but the way I see it they perceive that they are coming into an organization that is headed in the right direction too.
When players “want” to play somewhere their performance level is higher usually.
I guess we will see how that shakes out with Baker.
OK, I’ll take the bait and describe the teams we face:
Miami = weak defensive secondary
NE = loss
SD = loss
Arizona = Prorous run defense
Cinci = above average draft
Oakland = no defense
KC = innumerable holes
Buffalo = Weak O-line
StLouis = Holes all over the roster
NE = loss
Tennessee = poor draft
Denver = no run defense
SF = No QB and no WRs
Buffalo = see above
Seattle = No WRs
Miami = see above
Probably lose three of five to
Buffalo, Cinci, Denver, Seattle
10-6
It would be a surprise if the jets DONT make the playoffs.
billvv, Oakland no defense? really? I think youre mistaken.
It would be? Off the top of my head, all the teams in the AFC South are better than the Jets, and all of the teams in the AFC North have the potential to be better than the Jets. If you assume that New England, Indy and San Diego have division titles wrapped up, you’re looking at Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Baltimore and Cincinnati (and possibly Denver or Buffalo) fighting for two spots. Even if the Jets have a good year, I’ll be surprised if they make the playoffs.
seattle no wr’s????????
considering they have one of the deepest groups of wideouts in the nfl, and matt hasselbeck throwing to them, I’d hardly call wr a need for seattle. Nate Burleson, Deion Branch, and DJ Hackett are a solid group, and im sure seattle fans would take those 3 guys over L Coles, Cotchery, and B Smith…..
I’m just being optimistic seanmac, but I do not think the titans and texans are better than us
This will also be a good year to judge Mangini’s coaching prowess. In 2006, I thought his ability to prepare the Jets and develop a winning game plan was awesome. Last season, the Jets lost 8 games that they could have won. Or, stated differently, 8 games that if the Jets offense and defensive executed properly they would have won or had a winning record in those games. Pre-David Harris, the Jets inability to stop the run, coupled with their offensive ineptitude, cost them 6 games. Then, starting with the win over the Steelers, the offense prevented the Jets from beating Cleveland and Tennessee. The offense is bound to be better this season, no matter who is the QB, because the Jets converted the weakest part of their OL (Clarke at LG) into their strength with Faneca. This should allow the Jets to run left, which was a no-gain or loss waiting to happen last season, play action pass and put the TE into passing formations.
This season the defense was bound to be better with Harris starting from Week 1, but the additions of Jenkins (replacing D-Rob) and Pace (essentially replacing Hobson) have substantially improved the defense, at least on paper. Whatever VG does will be a bonus and if he is as good as Mark Anderson was for the Bears in 2006 (I see VG in a similar role as a designated pass rusher), then the Jets will get to the 10-11 win plateau.
The key for Mangini will be managing the QB. Chad and KC both have glaring deficiencies. A strong running game helps, but the game plan has to get the QB going and productive. In some ways, the QB play will be the key to this season. I think Mangini will figure it out, primarily because I think Chad will start and be productive, like in 2006, but with a better running game and pass protection.
RyderontheStorm,
I completely agree that a pass-rush type player can have immediate impact on a team. I’m just trying to explain why the media might not give a front 7 a whole lot of credit for the addition of a rookie OLB/DE. I am also only reflecting on the trends of the past 5 years (the NFL, of course, is always changing). Like I’ve mentioned before, I don’t see why Gholston won’t have a very successful first year- especially if he is used like Bilal mentioned in rush packages.