Bent Gets Serious: Gholston v Adams
In light of the recent debate over whether or not and to what extent Vernon Gholston can make an instant impact, I may have stumbled upon a pretty useful projection device.
This particular device is called “Gaines Adams” and, while there are certainly differences, which I will come to, I think there are enough similarities that we can compare the two.
Naturally, this will probably not prove the most exhaustive comparison possible, so if you can point out further similarities or differences to strengthen or dispel the conclusions reached here, then please do. I do not set out to prove or disprove anything, but by finding a similar case and identifying the impact of any differences between the two, it may give some indication as to how much and when we can expect Vernon to start dominating (if at all).
Prepare for a long article after the jump, with no puns or sics.
Guaranteed.
Here’s the tale of the tape:
Size/Athletic Profile Comparison
When drafted, Adams was 6’4” 258…Gholston was 6’4” 264
From combine and pro day numbers:
* 40 Yrd Dash: 4.64 for Adams, 4.58 for Gholston
* 20 Yrd Dash: 2.71 for Adams, 2.63 for Gholston
* 10 Yrd Dash: 1.58 for Adams, 1.53 for Gholston
* Vertical Jump: 35 for Adams, 42 for Gholston
* Broad Jump: 9′11″ for Adams, 10’5” for Gholston
* 20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.36 for Adams, 4.40 for Gholston
* 3-Cone Drill: 7.17 for Adams, 7.12 for Gholston
Bench Press: 20 reps for Adams, 37 for Gholston
Conclusion: They are virtually the same size and the athletic numbers are very similar as well. Vertical leap (an indicator of explosiveness) and bench press (brute strength) are areas where Gholston has the edge. Concerns over whether Gholston would be flexible enough to drop into coverage would have applied to Adams too, as their short and long shuttle numbers are basically the same.
Collegiate Position
Both played as Defensive Ends in a 4-3 system in college.
Adams went to a 4-3 team and continued to play DE, whereas Gholston will play mainly as an OLB for the Jets in their 3-4 system.
Both were drafted (theoretically) by teams on the upward curve of a rebuilding process.
Conclusion: The fact that Adams still plays as a DE is a crucial difference. (It’s a shame too, because it would have made the comparison that much more accurate). Will this mean that it takes longer for Gholston to develop? Adams may be trying to bulk up or increase his strength, whereas Gholston’s primary concern may be more in terms of his mobility. In that respect, perhaps Gholston is closer to where he needs to be athletically and therefore can concentrate more on technique. However, the hip flexibility concerns and ability to drop into coverage are less of an issue for Adams.
Success at the Collegiate Level up to Junior Level
Gholston played in the Big Ten, Adams played in the ACC. It can be debated which is the stronger, but they are both BCS conferences, so warrant comparison.
Neither played much until their redshirt sophomore season
As a redshirt Sophomore, Adams had 35 tackles and 5 sacks although he wasn’t a starter. He had three other tackles for a loss. As a redshirt Sophomore, Gholston had 49 tackles and 7.5 sacks. He had 7.5 other tackles for a loss.
In his Junior year, Adams had 56 tackles, 9.5 sacks and 5.5 other tackles for a loss. As a Junior, Gholston had just 37 tackles, but 14 sacks and 1.5 other tackles for a loss.
Over their Sophomore and Junior seasons, the statistics compare quite well: Tackles – Adams 91, Gholston 84. Sacks – Adams 14.5, Gholston 21.5. Other tackles for a loss – Adams 8.5, Gholston 9.
Conclusion: One of the main knocks on Gholston is that when he wasn’t sacking the quarterback, he did very little else. Clearly, there is some truth to this, but it is encouraging to see that his numbers stack up pretty well against those of Adams and the fact that he had more tackles (and more big plays that weren’t sacks) as a Sophomore may suggest he had a slightly different role in his Junior year. As he will no doubt be asked to play a variety of roles for the Jets, this should stand him in good stead.
After their Junior Years
What happened next is crucially important. Both players sought a projection from the NFL draft advisory panel and while Adams decided to stay in school and was the 4th pick in 2007, Gholston entered the draft in 2008 and was the 6th pick.
Entering his Senior year, Adams’ scouting profiles looked very familiar. Great athlete, sometimes gets by on just athletic ability, sometimes quits on the play when it is run the opposite side to him.
Adams spent his Senior year honing some of these skills (in particular he worked at using his hands and developed some inside moves) and preparing himself for the NFL. Gholston is going to have to learn on the fly, as Adams entered the NFL with a year of extra experience under his belt. (Also, remember that Gholston only played one year of High School football as a defensive player, so may already have been behind on the learning curve).
For the record, Adams had 56 tackles and 10.5 sacks as a Senior, with 5 other tackles for a loss. For Gholston, who knows what he would have achieved as a Senior? His Senior year will instead be his rookie year in the NFL.
In his rookie season in the NFL, Adams did not record a sack in the first five games of the year and entered the week ten bye week with 1.5 sacks. However, he turned it on in the second half of the season and finished with 43 tackles and 7 sacks (including one in the playoff loss to the Giants). He looks well on the way to becoming an impact player and was deservedly named to the all-rookie team.
Conclusion: Adams had a slow start to his rookie year, but then came on strong over the second half of the season. How much of an impact does that extra year in college have though?
Attempting to Project the First Few Years of Gholston’s NFL Career
So, what can we expect from Gholston? Looking back at Adams when he was drafted, many of the same concerns were levied at him as face Gholston now. Can we expect his rookie season to be similar to Adams’ with a slow start and a strong finish? This may be a bit much to ask when you factor in the extra year of experience Adams had, but Gholston may get there quicker because he will be doing his adjusting to the pace and lifestyle of the NFL at the same time as he refines his skills. Maybe the edge he has in terms of athletic numbers will help him get there a bit faster too? And perhaps OSU have faced more top level opponents over the last few years than Clemson, which could also speed up his development.
If Gholston can make a contribution this year as a situational pass rusher and gradually increase his reps as the season goes along, I would hope that the Jets fans would see this as encouraging and clamor for him to get more playing time rather than call him a bust due to the lack of production.
For him to come close to or even match Adams’ rookie output in his second year should be enough for the pick to be considered a success. Furthermore, it should continue to be interesting to monitor Adams’ ongoing progress. Who knows, he may even surpass those numbers. My thought all along was that Gholston would not make much of an impact right away, but would start to make inroads towards the end of his rookie year, before (hopefully) making “the leap” in year two. This study has only served to strengthen that belief.
I do not know what to expect from Gholston, but at least – assuming you agree that the comparison is a just one – we should have some idea as to how he is progressing by comparing his progress to that of what should prove to be one of the league best young defensive players. Even if Gholston ends up a notch below Gaines Adams, he could be a pretty good player for years to come.
Feel free to tear me apart for writing this. I will return to the gags-and-sarcasm comfort zone either way.
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Great post Bent! I’m thinking of John Abraham’s first season… Pass rushing specialist type. I think if Gholston is brought in slowly he will have a strong second half like Adams. Is there a rookie wall? Are some positions more prone to it than others? How will Mangini develope him? Is Gholston the X factor on our defence? Dammit!! I just don’t know! I swear I need football like people need sleep!
I think it’s a very reasoned and reasonable outlook with which I agree. It’s called a rookie year for a reason and I’ll leave it at that.
Bent awesome article, well thought out.
I agree that he might struggle to get to the QB in the first few weeks, which will eventually become a storyline for the press as they count week by week how he hasn’t hit his stride.
I’d love to see him get off to a quick start, but if he comes close to Adams numbers in year one as a situational rusher at the start, I’d be pleased.
Please don’t mention Gaines Adams. He has a hideously long neck and it freaks me out.
It took Super Mario a full year to become a good pro. Besides QB the transition to DE is the hardest from college to pros. Most scouts think Gholston will thrive more in the OLB role in the 3-4 than a 4-3 DE. I think he will make everyone happy that we didn’t have to pick McFadden or Matt Ryan by year 3.
Smizz: that’s one difference then, because in person, I noticed VG had virtually no neck. I could not say how this would affect their respective career arcs.
Scott Derry’s neck is longer. He went to the Bills. Dude looks like a diplodocus. (one of Aerosmith’s lesser known hits).
the fact is the jets got the player they needed.
Good post, at first I thought the post was going to be about the merits of trading Gholston for Ernie Adams, but I guess that can be another story.
One thing to consider, Gholston is going to play a ton in the preseason to get him accumlated to the pro game and teach him all the aspects of the defense Mangini wants him to know. I expect to see him play well in preseason, but then not play that much in the first few regular season games since he will still have much to know. The fans and media could be chiding Mangini for this. However, I would look for him to come on strong as the year progresses like Harris did.
Great comparison, and a very valid one! The edge in athleticism goes to Vernon Gholston on this one. I wonder how he compares to Mario Williams??
I see outproduce Adams for one reason! He plays OLB in a 3-4! This means he doesnt have to face the LT, 1-1! Coleman would take on the LT or Ellis and it would free him up for sack lunch!!!
I believe if he plays the weakside, he can easily get 10 sacks, since the RT is not a pass-blocker and against Michigan he easily destroyed their right side of the line!
I think its best to play him weakside! Make them commit a TE to block him and make him strike fear in QB’s!
Vernon Gholston = THE GREEN MONSTER!!
vb
i agree…plus i think gholston will have a quick start as john abraham had…just like reprocity noted…but without the injury…just my thoughts and agreements…
Great post! I would like to see Seanmac’s take on the comparison.
Great post the main question i have is when do negotiations start i want to know not the dollar amount but how many years just due to the fact i think its going to take a year to really be ready to come in as a starter if he holds out and gets in late then this is all for not and it might take even longer not to be the pecimist i just want him in early and learning right away im hoping he gets a six years deal and get him in asap to learn
Great Article Bent. I think VG numbers wont matter much if he plays the system the way the coaches want him to. VG taking plays off is too overrated. Regardless, he should cause concerns to opposing O’s so that’s a plus! We only have Kerry Rhodes causing trouble, and needed to be accounted for each play. VG would cause major migranes for opposing O’s….
Bent, your getting me excited….looking foward to the season already.
Well done. I only wish there was a stat-line for: What makes them tick?
And I’m not sure the Wonderlick (sic) knows.
But it is a wonder-ful and interesting comparison, made more so because, by its absence, it isolates Heart as the critical criterion.
I think he will have more than 5 sacks, probably 10.
If you see what Harris did in half a season, and with Rhodes blitzing, you just know he going to have alot of sacks. Also you have to factor in the inexperience quarterbacks he will be playing against..buffalo’s twice, miami twice, kc, that alone will give him five if he averages one a game.
Tanny is great at getting people into camp cept revis. I’m just wondering how the CBA is going to play out with the contracts this year?
10 sacks ain’t that easy. The guy is an all-world talent from a physical perspective… we will see if this young man is a freakish athlete or a football player the first time he gets his arse kicked… whether he gets back up and gives it back harder will tell us whether he is Shawm Merriman or just a turd off the streets who looks better in the gym than in football pads.
From a purely physical standpoint, its obvious the guy has the POTENTIAL for 10 sacks… but I’d like to see him play in pads in the NFL first.
The thing people bash him about is fire and effert. Now as a Jet fan, I know Manigni will not let Gholston slack off a bit and make him play to his full potential, thats why i think he is a better fit than Chris Long because Gholston has more potential than Long.
3-4 OLBs generally come in and make an instant impact as pro players. Look at the rookie years of Shawne Merriman, DeMarcus Ware, Kamerion Wimbley, Terrell Suggs, and John Abraham for example. Gholston was a better prospect than all of those guys(save maybe Suggs), and honestly there’s no reason why you can’t be cautiously optimistic about a double digit sack season. Gholston doesn’t even have to start right away and can be an instant impact player as a guy who comes in on passing downs. Hell, Terrell Suggs started only one game his rookie year and finished 7th in the league with 12 sacks and won DROTY.
few variables missing … work ethic, desire to learn, eager to achieve higher level of success.
We can only hope and pray he doesn”t turn out to be another injury prone JA.
Jeeez … lets start training camp already !! By the way .. are they training in NJ or LI this year?
Cheers
This is a very interesting post. You did a great job in analyzing and comparing. vbsiena24, I would add WR to that list of “big jump” positions. I agree with the other posters that intangibles like work ethic, drive and endurance will be a big factor. I feel like I can safely state that no matter how much production Gholston has this year, he will greatly expand upon it in 2009 and 2010.
Mario WIlliams #s
* 40 Yrd Dash: 4.64 for Adams, 4.58 for Gholston, 4.66 Williams
* 20 Yrd Dash: 2.71 for Adams, 2.63 for Gholston, 2.77 Williams
* 10 Yrd Dash: 1.58 for Adams, 1.53 for Gholston, 1.60 for Williams
* Vertical Jump: 35 for Adams, 42 for Gholston, 40 for Williams
* Broad Jump: 9?11? for Adams, 10’5” for Gholston, 10 for Williams
* 20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.36 for Adams, 4.40 for Gholston, 4.37 for Williams
* 3-Cone Drill: 7.17 for Adams, 7.12 for Gholston, 7.21 for Williams
Bench Press: 20 reps for Adams, 37 for Gholston, 30 for Williams
So again, slight edge for Gholston
I didn’t consider Williams because he is 6′6 293. A whole different animal!
I agree that work ethic, heart, etc was only touched upon because I tried to focus on quantifiable factors. That will probably determine the main difference between them early on in their careers. However, what I did touch on is that Adams had similar questions about drive, notably that he quit on plays that weren’t run towards him (the same criticism Gholston hears) and has succeeded so far despite that, so at least these things can be overcome.
By all accounts, Gholston is a willing learner and is driven. Look at the shape he is in. I know that’s a totally different discipline, but he clearly has been motivated to improve his physique and has put a lot of work in, which is at least a sign of personal pride.
Some of you might counter with the steroids argument, but I’d consider him innocent until proven guilty on that front.
I’d like to know how VG compared to Julius Peppers, and J. Abraham?
I don’t want to convict the guy of ‘roids before he is ever even charged with using them… but Bent, us sports fans with 20-20 hindsight mock ourselves as being blind during the Sosa-MaGuire home run race in the 1990’s (and all of pro baseball, for that matter).
I’m extremely suspicious. I guess you could say that I don’t REALLY care, as long as it doesn’t hurt the JETS. If he gets caught and doesn’t have what it takes naturally, and ends up losing strength, speed and size over the course of his career under strict “you-failed-once” testing, it’ll be really harmful.
We should all go easy on Gholston this season. DE is the toughest position on the defense to find success. Gaines Adams is pretty good but I see Gholston as almost identical to Terrell Suggs on the Ravens. Suggs may have more weight on VG but coming out of college, I saw the same type of ‘tween’ player in Suggs that I see out of VG. If anything, we should be thankful we have a player with the tremendous potential of VG. I’m not worrying about VG, nor should any of you.
Great comparison, all we need out of Gholston is 7 sacks and like 15 tackles. He should be a sack specialist only this year…………..
Re: Abe and Peppers.
Again neither compares as closely as Adams, because Peppers was much bigger and Abrahams was a bit smaller, but faster.
When drafted, Abe was 6′3 252 and ran a 4.41 at the Combine*. Peppers was 6′6 290 and apparently had 4.55 speed and did a 37.5 vertical leap prior to the start of his last year at UNC.
*Caution: I got this stat from a NYT draft report which also said Anthony Becht had good hands, so it could be horribly inaccurate!
How about comapring VG to Bryan Thomas?
darn typo, “comparing”
I know there are similarities between BT and VG, but as Thomas came from a smaller school and was a backup for a few years, before having to change positions, I don’t see his situation as the same, so I don’t think there is as much worth in comparing his progress to VG’s.
However, they are basically the same size and BT’s combine numbers were:
* 4.47 40 Yard Dash (.11 faster than VG)
* 4.01 Short Shuttle (.39 faster than VG)
* 35 Inch Vertical (7 inches less than VG)
* 33 Bench Reps (4 less than VG)
I didn’t realize Peppers was that big and fast. I guess his success reflects that.
So Vernon Gholston is in elite company when it comes to his measurables. Hopefully lhe lives up to the hype