Link: The Football Scientist Experiments With Gang Green
This post was written by Mack Rosenberg with Brian Bassett contributing to it …
Yesterday, the Fifth Down published an article in which they talked with ESPN writer K.C. Joyner who uses statistics to analyze the game, and he does so in his upcoming book, “Scientific Football ’08.” Joyner, a.ka. the Football Scientist, has his own website- thefootballscientist.com. Joyner first addressed the issue of Jets tight end Chris Baker (who isn’t any happier after receiving that friendly text from Eric Mangini). Here’s what Joyner had to say:
“A better receiving tight end than he’s given credit for.”
Well duh, but this is something we at TJB have been giving Baker credit for since 2004. Looking at his DPAR as a pass-catcher (value adjusted over a backup-level TE) on Football Outsiders he’s ranked in the top 20 in the past four seasons (2007 — 11th, 2006 –12th, 2005 –12th, 2004 — 20th) respectively, not bad for a guy who is supposed to be a blocking Tight End.
Joyner determined that out of the 60 passes thrown to Baker last season, Chris was set up as a wide receiver for 43 of them, with 7.5 yards per attempt in that stance, tied for 13th in the NFL with Jeremy Shockey. The Colts threw 62 of those passes to Dallas Clark, while 27 went to Ben Watson of the Patriots, and 3 came the way of Bubba Franks in Green Bay, now Baker’s backup.
Here’s where it gets interesting. Joyner was asked by Greg Bishop of the Fifth Down to assess the drafting of Dustin Keller, tight end out of Purdue, with that second first round pick. Joyner said the Jets were “solving a problem that doesn’t seem to be there.” Some may agree with this assessment, thinking Baker acted out like he did because there was no problem with the Jets tight end unit. And that’s the real question here: did the Jets have a good reason to draft a tight end in the first round?
Apples and oranges. It’s akin to playing Victor Hobson as a DE/OLB … you can do it, but it ain’t going to be pretty.
The problem is, Joyner is looking through a lens of a static offense looking to do the same thing they did in 2008 that they did in 2007. Doesn’t the fact that Baker was making most of his catches in 0 TE / motion formations throw up some red flags about personnel matching the scheme they were trying to play?
So, wouldn’t putting a much faster, much more athletic player into the role Baker filling last year make sense as an upgrade? No one here is arguing that Baker isn’t a great two-way player, or that he can make catches detached from the offensive line, he can. But what he isn’t is a speedy threat that can cause serious matchups against a linebacker and/or defensive back away from the formation play after play.
Actually adding Keller makes the offense and passing game that much more potent. Allow Baker to play the role he is suited to, the two-way Tight End, and allow Keller to assume the role as the flex player, lining up in the backfield, flanking, in-line, whatever. Both will benefit from the other and the defense will be thrown into fits stuggling to keep up with another legitimate pass-catching threats opening up the field even more for the Wide Receivers deep, which then allows for more breathing space for the power running game we’re likely to see this year with Bill Callahan now in town.
Stats are important, but rather than just looking at the stats, if Joyner looked more closely at piecing together the roster, the changing scheme of the Offensive Coordinator and and the key clue of the team cutting H-Back Stacy Tutt immediately after drafting Keller, it’s clear that it’s a role the Jets been trying to fill — though unsuccessfully — for over two years.
The Jets aren’t fixing a problem that wasn’t there, they are fixing a problem that they’ve covered up as best they could for two years. Adding Keller isn’t a zero sum game for Baker, it’s setting up a whole offense that could stand to make great strides in 2008.
20 Responses to Link: The Football Scientist Experiments With Gang Green
-
j says:
Keller is not a TE, he is more in the mold of Vincent Jackson of SD.
-
pat d says:
But don’t we need Chris Baker to make this work. Upgrade his contract.
-
SackDance99 says:
Keller will be a third receiver on or off the LOS with LC and Jericho. The Jets base offense will have an FB, so he won’t be an “H-Back.” Whether he’s called a TE or 3rd WR is not relevant. He’ll be a pass-catcher, not a blocker. For that matter, I don’t see Baker or Franks having a different role in the Jets’ base offense. When the Jets decide to power run, with double TE, I doubt if we’ll see Keller. I like the idea of having Baker and Franks in a double TE formation at the goal line.
-
Baker is only “needed” if the Jets use an H-Back. Since you can’t have an H-back and a FB, I just don’t think you’ll see an H-back in the Jets’ base offense. But, I could be wrong and all the true blocking FBs the Jets signed could indicate something else. Plus, to quibble with Mack and Bassett, the Jets cut FB Tutt and TE Kowalewski the same day that they signed UDFA FB Caulcrick. So, getting Keller, along with a bevy of blocking FBs might indicate a move away from the H-back, like Tutt, and towards a blocking FB and a pass-catching TE, like in San Diego.
-
ramble914 says:
All the talk about whether the third WR will be B. Smith or C. Stuckey is moot, it will be Dustin Keller. He needs to be on the field the majority of the time to pull off the power run game. If he is on the field as a pass catching TE only, it will be obvious that we are going to run when Baker and/or Franks come in and Keller leaves.
Keller will play a hybrid H-back, slot, WR role, and will confuse the hell out of opposing defenses.
-
Reprocity says:
Keller and Baker are not competing for the same job. Both should be on the field at the same time! Our base Offence? We havent had an identity on offence yet! so why would we have one right now?
-
I agree it would be a big mistake if Baker and Keller are not on the field at the same time on most downs.
-
I thought for sure they were going to be, but this new interest in fullbacks make me wonder exactly what is going to happen here.
-
Fonzie/Naples says:
Keller will stretch the box and raise havoc, period. Thats why we drafted him, Baker or no Baker.
-
It’s interesting to know the stats between Clemens and Pennington. Looks like those that were down on Chad’s “weak ” arm and low long throws accuracy are not supported by the stats.
-
billvv says:
I’m sure the Jets looked at the WR class and liked DK better than any of them. On the LOS or in motion, he’ll be more valuable to the run game cracking back against the DE on sweeps, or like mentioned above, taking OLBs out of the play by going in motion.
I see a major running game coming and I like it! It’s been years since we’ve seen this! The FO and coaches certainly spent their time well over the last couple of months. This fits so well with the article on West (or East) Coryell, too.
-
Nobody runs a fake like Pennington, well maybe Payton, with Keller stretching the DBacks, the O line and running game, we should have a potent offense. Last year we put points on the board but couln’t when we needed to. This year we can!! Lets go Gang Green.
-
GAJetFan says:
It was clear at the Draft, based upon the comparison of DK with the available WR’s, that DK was the best choice for a 3rd wide receiver offering a deep threat. None of the availble guys were a whole lot faster in the 40, & none looked to be more athletic or have better hands. Plus DK has zero character issues…a great team player.
There is no question that DK will be on the field simultaneously with Baker. Baker has always been an excellent, but under utilized, pass catcher, plus an excellent blocker. With both guys on the field, along with the WR’s & a good pass blocking O-line, our offense should be a lot more potent every where on the field.
-
I know we are all sick of it but think about DK stretching the box would allow LC to run crossing routes without getting killed by a LB? Yea more short passes. The seam route has been pretty much a trick play since Vinny left. Also a Jonathan Carter type would round out this offence.
-
Electric Ham says:
The Football scientist was asked who should start on an espn chat today and he said CP
- Turkey, Cheese, Mayo & HAMMY
-
The Ed(itor) says:
If we really don’t need a blocking TE, why would the jets pay Baker any more money?? Obviously with keller on board they won’t. So we 0should trade him while his value is still high.
-
Bent says: Baker ran a 4.87 in college (6 years ago) and Keller ran a 4.53. They are not the same. I agree with the Mack/Bassett post that the wrong conclusion was reached. This might not upgrade the tight end position per se, but it upgrades the offense as a whole.
-
Okay, for Baker and Keller to be on the field at the same time, the Jets would have to pull the FB. The only time it would make sense to do that would be in obvious passing downs and that would also mean that the Jets would prefer Keller being a 3rd WR over someone like Stuckey or Brad Smith. I just don’t think the Jets drafted Keller to be a situational substitution. Keller in on every down, with LC and Jericho, means that the Jets never have to go three WR. Instead, they can bring in Leon on obvious passing downs and have the FB in to help out against blitzes. I could be wrong, but Keller in on every down gives the Jets’ offense the most flexibility. For instance, when the Jets want to go 3 WR, Keller could switch to FB/H-back with Brad or Stuckey in the TE slot (or vice versa) with Leon in at RB, which would drive defenses batty.
-
Keller creates nightmares for defenses.His talent and natural abilities allows him to be on the field more often than not, and once he “grows” into his blockin he will be like mana from heaven. I loved it the minute I heard we drafted him. Boy oh boy, those fourth round picks have been great for us. Lets not forget Lowery, he is still very much alive among the seasoned pros.
I read Joyner’s column and agree that he came up with the wrong conclusion. Sure, Baker got more than 70% of his catches in WR formations. All that means is that the Jets often times don’t use the TE as a blocker (like San Diego or Cleveland). If that’s the case, then having Keller get the same receptions would be an upgrade because Keller is faster, has better hands and is more of a vertical threat. I think everyone is assuming that Keller will be an H-back. I think he’ll be a TE because the Jets, like Cleveland and San Diego, will not use the TE as, primarily, a blocker and, in any event, with Tony Richardson at FB, who needs a blocking TE? Also, if the team goes strong right, but runs left (a KC staple with Gonzo), then, again, who needs the TE to block? I think the base formation will have the TE be, for the most part, a receiver. But, when the Jets want to power run, they’ll bring in the “blocking TE” whomever that turns out to be (like San Diego). Keller’s best “block” just might be running the LB or safety out of the play by making him chase (Keller goes in motion left, run right…another KC staple). In today’s NFL with the “Ty Law” chuck rule, it’s much better to have a pass-catching TE than a run blocker.