Around the AFC East 5/30/2008
The guys over at SBNation have asked me to participate in a series of running posts that they do, Around the AFC East. Each Friday, you’ll get a series of questions asked from each team’s blogger to another. If you are unfamiliar with SBNation’s AFC East sites, The Phinsider, Pats Pulpit and Buffalo Rumblings are all excellent intel for anyone who follows the AFC East Division.
TJB: Joey Porter didn’t exactly have a typical year for himself in 2007. Do you see this changing now that the team will likely switch to a 3-4?
Phinsider: This is something a lot of Dolphin fans have been talking about, especially because of the amount of money (and guaranteed money in particular) that this organization gave Joey Porter last offseason. Here’s the thing about Joey, though. First, like you point out, the Dolphins weren’t running the type of defense Joey usually thrives in. Yes, they planned on doing so. But injuries and a lack of depth caused the team to have to play much more 4-3 than they ever wanted to. And that certainly hurt Porter’s productivity.
But the thing people also seem to forget about Porter is that he had to undergo arthroscopic knee surgery back on August 7 of last year. And at 30 years of age, it takes some time to come back from an injury like that. However, Porter, being the competitor he is, rushed to get back on the field. And he ended up only missing 3 weeks of camp.
The result? Anyone watching the Dolphins week in and week out could see that Porter was clearly slowed by his knee. However, he seemed to get back to being the old Joey Porter the 2nd half of the season following the bye week. In those final 8 games after the bye, Porter had 39 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 3 passes defended. If you average those figures out to a full season, you would have Porter’s 2nd highest total in tackles (78) and 3rd highest total in sacks (9).
Considering he’s now healthy and will be playing in a style of defense (Paul Pasqualoni’s 3-4) that he’s more comfortable in, I fully expect a very solid season from Porter (60-70 tackles, 8-10 sacks).
TJB: There had been some talk about second year safety Brandon Meriweather making a transition to CB, will stay at Safety this season?
Pats Pulpit: This would be classic Belichick – utilizing players with multiple talents in situations that warrant it. Case in point: Mike Vrabel. Why the heck is a pass rushing OLB lining up as a TE in red zone offensive packages? Because he has great hands.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brandon line up at CB, but I don’t think it would be a permanent or long-term assignment. The CB role has gotten very crowded with all the draftees and FAs the Patriots have picked up recently. I could see Meriweather moving to CB if he has a unique skill for a particular lineup, but I don’t see it happening permanently. That is, unless the 8 or so guys currently ready to fill that role fall flat on their face. I think Brandon will stay where he is and benefit from spending time with Rodney Harrison; Brandon’s a young guy and could learn some things from Rodney (except how to use HGH, of course ;-)).
TJB: How do you foresee the Jason Peters situation working out? Will the Bills pay him just a few years into his new deal?
Buffalo Rumblings: They had better pay him. Peters has a lot of bargaining power in this situation because the contract he’s working under is very modest (5 years, $18 million signed after 2005) and he made the Pro Bowl in just his second full year as a starting tackle – his first as a left tackle. He’s 26 years old, a fantastic athlete and an excellent rags-to-riches story (he’s a former undrafted free agent tight end out of Arkansas). The kid has worked his tail off to become one of the elite young tackles in the league – and that type of player might be the hardest to fine outside of a franchise quarterback.
With that said, Peters is probably not going to hold out of training camp – and if he does, he’ll report in time for the start of the regular season. He has nothing to gain by holding out, and a lot to lose. My guess is that he’ll play the 2008 season under his current contract while the Bills work on negotiating long-term deals for WR Lee Evans and potentially LB Angelo Crowell and CB Terrence McGee. After the ‘08 season seems the ideal time to lock Peters in long term, and while Peters may not be happy playing another year on his current deal, his next deal may be richer for it.
Filed under: Main Page
Did any of those AFC East blogs ask questions about the Jets? If so, what were they and what were the answers?
Ditto Ramble.
Hey Jets fans,
You can read Bassett’s response to my question about the Jets’ QB controversy here:
http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2008/5/30/542514/around-the-afc-east-week-t
hey guys they did … but I don’t see their responses posted up … I will later today.
Bassett,
I gotta say I’m impressed. I didn’t know how good we had it here at TJB. These other AFC East blogs seem to fall victim to a lot more rose-colored-glasses homerism (and I’d strongly suggest everyone check out their blogs as a cross-reference). Just wanted to thank you for delivering the true gen (as Hemmingway used to put it). Though feel free to let us know how much the Bills and Fins suck. We always appreciate unmitigated bashing of our foes. And more Tom-Brady-is-gay rumor mongering. Thank you.
MPG
Basset,
Don’t they ask you a question too? Why don’t you put that up too?
-Shocking Slice of Pig
Hey guys,
Brian’s response to my Jets-related question can be found at this link: http://www.thephinsider.com/2008/5/30/542274/around-the-afc-east-new-yo
Hope you enjoy it.
And thanks to Brian for taking part in our little weekly feature. It’s great to have him aboard!
MPG, imo, this is definitely the best afc east blog, and one of the pretty small number of excellent team blogs overall. Also, hands down, no contest, the smartest comments of any blog I read regularly, including yours.
Including my comments or including my blog? Cause I don’t have one. I’d hate to think that I’m use another blogger’s handle.
Because I have to weigh in daily on the QB competition, in yesterday’s NYT, the “Fifth Down” blog had ESPN’s “Football Scientist” (K.C. Joyner) write about the Jets. While Mack wrote about his TE comments, Bassett & Co. glossed over his QB comments…count Joyner as another football analyst in the Chad column:
Of the Jets quarterbacks competing for the starting job, Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens, Joyner said: “Clemens always seems get the benefit of the doubt. Pennington does not.”
The numbers, Joyner said, suggest the opposite should be true. Clemens averaged more yards per attempt (6.1 to 5.8) on short passes (1-10 yards) last season. Pennington, who is supposed to have the weaker arm of the two, averaged more yards per attempt (8.9 to 8.8) on medium passes (11-19 yards), more yards per attempt (11.3 to 8.7) on deep passes (20-29 yards) and more yards per attempt (22.8 to 12.3) on the longest passes (30-plus yards).
Joyner also compiled a table of bad decisions, or how often a quarterback makes a mistake that leads to a turnover of a near turnover. Examples include forcing a pass into coverage, or throwing the ball away while being tackled. Both quarterbacks had 10 of those plays last season, according to Joyner’s calculations.
Joyner counted how many of the pair’s passes were nearly intercepted. Clemens had 14 passes, Pennington 12.
“There is no metric measure last year where Kellen Clemens was a better quarterback than Chad Pennington,” Joyner said.
This is a great blog, but it’s tilted to the KC side of the QB competition.
I’m not getting back into the mudslinging with you, SD, but the KC side and those of us who are eager to see him succeed base our thinking on the likelihood of improved play from a younger player. Plain and simple. It’s like the Billy Beane quote, which goes something like : I’ll always take young and talented any day over old and experienced. You can assume improvement with young players, the same can not be said for veterans. If their metrics are similar (and granted the #s you’re taking from Joyner’s article have some divergence) how can you not be eager to see the younger player, with the bigger arm win the job? Chad at his best was nothing to get excited about (I’ll point you to the Playoff loss against the Raiders in ‘02 and to his relatively mediocre numbers in ‘06,his only 16 start season, when he won the comeback POY award). And as I’ve said before, 8 games is too small a sample size to claim anything definitive about KC. That’ll be my last though on the subject.
As an innocent bystander, I’d have to disagree that this blog favours (sic) Clemens.
Personally, I haven’t expressed an opinion and Bassett’s view usually seems to be “may the best man win”. In terms of the commenters, I’d say it was pretty evenly split between for Chad, for KC and on the fence.
It may seem like every time you make a disparaging comment about KC the world and his wife piles on, but that’s to be half-expected: you know what they say…the most popular guy in town is the backup QB.
FWIW, I agree with a lot of what you say, but you’ve gotta have a bit of blind optimism!
If you still feel that way – anyone else agree? – then maybe it’s time for Chad to get some more column inches here, but you know what the discussion will ultimately become.
MPG, I’m just debating this point and bringing out counter-arguments. The thrust of Joyner’s comments was on the QB issue and his statistical evidence was compelling. Do young player’s usually improve. Yes, but not always. Is 8 games too small a sample size? What’s your evidence for this and what is an adequate sample size? You see, a lot of the support for KC is based upon hope. I hope KC turns out to be great. But, if you apply reason and look at KC’s body of work and the criticism that followed him out of Oregon, then there’s numerous reasons to be skeptical as to whether he will ever become a bona fide NFL QB. I’m a die-hard Jets fan and I’d prefer that the Jets not squander games in the hope that KC is much, much better than he showed last season. I know I’m in the minority on this blog, but I’m in the majority when you tally up the opinions of NFL analysts and Jets beat writers…Chad should be the starter because he gives the Jets the best chance to win. Period. Heck, even the Buffalo Bills blogger thought the same thing. I don’t sling mud, I throw out statistical facts and analysis made by third-parties, not fans. I hope that doesn’t upset you.
Bent, I think the QB competition is THE BIG ISSUE now. So, I was surprised that Joyner, who is a “sabermetric” football analysis guy (and I’m not), comes up with some very telling stats and resulting analysis that supports Chad, but his analysis was not posted for comments. Especially since this blog, generally, supports the “sabermetric” approach. Whether one is in the KC or Chad camps, Joyner’s analysis is relevant to the dialogue. So, I have a small critique, Joyner’s analysis should have been a separate post. Also, FWIW, Bassett did say that he believes that KC can do more of what he believes the Jets want to do on offense…throw deep. I do not think this indicates any bias, although Joyner’s analysis shows that Chad is even a better deep passer than KC. So,….. (only kidding!)
I see what you’re saying, but you’ve been around for years so you’ll know Bassett posts practically everything and when he doesn’t, that’s when you guys will step up, as you have on this occasion. I doubt you’ll find any other examples of Bassett ignoring a story because it doesn’t fit his agenda. That’s because one of the reason’s for this site’s popularity is because he doesn’t have any agendas.
And you guys are so thorough, it wouldn’t be possible to “hide” a story from you, even if he wanted to!
I don’t think you should read too much into the fact that Mack and Bassett decided to focus on another element of the story. Maybe they just thought we’ve had enough Chad v KC posts lately and decided to focus on an issue that hadn’t already been discussed. Yes, it is THE key issue, I’ve read so many stories about this, it’s hard to figure out whether each new one I read is something I haven’t already read!
Last year, clearly Chad was far better, but neither was good enough. With a year’s more experience for KC, no ankle issues for Chad and a better OL for both, each of them will be better in 2008, but will either be good enough? That is to be revealed…
And maybe Bassett did say that Kellen is better suited to a downfield passing offense, but in response I had said that now he has some big targets, Chad should be able to throw downfield more too and I should add also that with an improved running game, his excellent play action skills will be more effective.
Just so everyone knows what I’m talking about, here’s Bassett’s response to the Bills blogger’s Chad v. KC question:
As ridiculous as it might sound, the offense looks to be much less reliant on QB this year. Word on the street is that the team will be moving more into power running and a vertical downfield offense and thus away from the West Coast that the team has run over the past two years – as evidenced by the addition of Bill Callahan as the line coach, the body shop at running back, Tony Richardson as a legit blocking back and upgrading the line with Alan Faneca and Damien Woody all during this past off-season. If they do try to throw downfield more, Pennington is in some serious trouble. I see Clemens as the opening day starter and that he’ll get a long look during the 2008 campaign. The organization invested a second rounder two years ago in Clemens and he seems to fit the offense that the team is moving to better.
Geez, I get a shiver down my spine every time I read this. Bent, like I said, I had a small critique on this point…this is a great blog, but “The Football Scientist” had way more to say about the QBs than the TEs and I don’t believe his stats, especially that last season Chad was better on every type of throw, have been reported before.
Sack, You are hiding behind a safe bet in Chad. I’m a numbers guys and from watching last season i can tell you those stats are skewed and useless. Just look at Thomas Jones stats… 3.6 a carry is impressive from that offence. All talent must be evaluated in a consistent fashion. In order to do that you must assume there is average talent level compared to the rest of the NFL. This was why Cincinati was so bad for so long. They drafted QB’s and didnt put enough talent around them to succeed and just went through so many QBs and losing seasons. Even if KC started all the games last year he would have looked bad. It was a fixed deck every week. As for our starting QB??? Open Competition.
SackDance99,
You should know by now that statistics mean nothing. They are just numbers and are not indicative of future performance.
Every year, players have to go out and perform at a high level. But if you want to look at statistics, one can only point out and say that Chad had a good year in 2002 and his productivity has progressively gone down ever since, and climaxing last year with arguably his worst year as a starter.
What stats are you using to assume that Chad will improve next year???? Probably the same stats that KC fans are using to think that he will improve. HOPE!!
For Jason Peters.
I wish the Bills owner would draw a line in the sand and say we would never renegotiate a contract with more then 1 year left on it.
That being said, Peters is the obvious exception.
SackDance99,
The most likely scenario if Chad starts is that we will get injured. If history is an indicatoin of future performance, Chad is most likely to get injured if he starts the season.
What makes you think that he gives the Jets the best chance to win??? His horrible decision making as a veteran? His worst season as a starter last year when he is in his 30’s? Or the fact that he has 2 torn rotator cuffs and cant throw the ball with zip?
2002 was a great year for Chad but injuries have shortened his career and have caused all his impressived statistics to progressively worsen over the years leading up to last year.
Unfortuanley, you cant say the same for a young QB with a big arm and only 8 starts under his belt. His excuse is inexperience and it is legitimate…. Whats Chad’s???
I agree, Sack, it was an interesting set of numbers and thanks for highlighting them.
I’ve spent enough time defending Chad over the years that you’ll know you won’t get any arguments from me when you provide stats that show he was actually better than some people perceive him to be, but if KC does deservedly beat him out in camp (as unlikely as you obviously feel that to be), then good for him. Arguably, since he’s younger, that would be better for the long term future of the franchise, but I guess we agree that’s not enough of a reason to hand him the job if he doesn’t beat out Chad convincingly.
I’m not really all that interested in debating it though, I’m just looking forward to seeing how it all shakes out.
Trying… to… bite… tongue… ugh…! Aligning with beat writers or the guy from Buffalo Rumblings is a funny way to underscore the keenness of your insight. Its fascinating how a compliment to Basset got us all the way out here in left field.
Here’s a question for everybody: if you flip a coin eight times and it comes up heads eight times, what does that tell you? If you flip a coin 25 times and it comes up heads 25 times, what does that tell you? How and why are the answers different?
Najy,
Hey, it’s Joyner’s stats, not mine. Chad out-performed KC statistically…that’s a fact. Chad had an ankle injury, that’s a fact, too. You are correct that past performance does not guarantee future success. But, it is indicative of future success and Chad performed statistically better than KC. Also, Chad has been injured and KC has been injured in 2 of his last 3 football seasons, which is another fact.
I posted this before and I’ll say it again. Because KC has a strong arm, a quick release and good mobility, he has, potentially, a higher ceiling than Chad. But, it’s only potentially. If Chad can return to his 2006 form, and let’s assume that is his ceiling, that’s a pretty good ceiling. Is it hope? I guess, but it’s based on something tangible, a body of work that is only 2 years old. There is no evidence of what KC’s ceiling could be in the NFL, but he has to radically improve to be a bona fide NFL starter. Further, while Chad will never approach his 2002 numbers, KC only really played well in the fourth quarter of his first game against Baltimore. Will KC ever show that kind of promise, again? Or, will he be like Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had his best game in his first game and never came close thereafter?
Najy, since you’re honest, how many starts do you want to give KC? He’s had 8, how many more are you willing to give him, knowing that it may come at the cost of Jet victories?
That depends…did the person tossing the coin the first 8 times have two or three 270-300 pound men charging at him unmolested every time?
MPG, you have to always get personal. I’m not aligning with beat writers or citing Joyner because he, coincidentally, supports what I’ve been saying about KC. I’m simply pointing out to you and all KC supporters that stat guys and analysts generally agree that Chad should be the starter. But, they’re all wrong and you’re right.
And, your coin flip analogy is ridiculous, but telling. You want to give KC 17 more NFL starts so the Jets can decide whether he’s a bona fide NFL starter? How about this, maybe the reason the coin comes up heads is because both sides are heads…the coin is a fraud. How many more times does the coin have to come up heads before you check the other side to determine whether it is a fraud? Well, I’ll tell you what, if Mangini and Tannenbaum let that coin show up heads 17 more times, they’ll be fired, with good reason.
Sack,
I don’t think it will take 17 more starts to determine if KC has it or not, nor should he be allowed to play that long if he isn’t doing well. But, 8 starts is not enough to say he dosen’t have it. If he wins the competition he should be given 6 to 8 starts, and hopefully he does well.
I also want to add that if the team decides that Chad is the best fit to start this season, it dosen’t necessarily mean that KC is finished. The organization should play CP as long as he is productive, and then go back to KC when the time is right.
Sack,
I think that it will all depend on how Kellen comes into preseason. If he looks impressive in preseason, then he will be the starter in hopes that his preseason performance can translate into the regular season.
Kellen will not start if he looks bad in preseaon. My personal opinion, Sack, is that the job is for Kellen to win. Chad is the security blanket. That is the only reason the team kept him is for security.
All kellen has to do is look impressive in preseason and he will be the starter. Just dont expect him to be handed the job because he has a big arm. Rex Grossman has a big arm too.
Personally, I am pulling for Kellen, hoping that he has improved and that he will be the starter because our organization needs a change of face and a new leader.
Chad may or may not return to his 2006 form and Kellen may or may not have improved. Preseason will tell us the story better than anyone on this blog.
For the record though, I am pulling for Kellen. The job is their for him to win. Chad is just their incase Kellen cant win the job.
Sack,
To answer your question, it is unfortunate that the bye week is in week 5. Usually, that is the best time to make a qb change during the season.
Looking at the schedule, I think that Kellen should be evaluated on a 3 game period. I dont want to be stubborn and stick with Kellen if he sucks because that wont get us anywhere. If kellen has 4 bad games in a row, it might be time to pull the trigger.
Sack, we will be able to get a much better picture once preseason starts because this is all speculation right now. I need something new and tangible to look at so that I can give you a better opinion.
I dont think that there will be a number of starts that will be given for the qb. Every game is important and we cannot afford to lose any. It is just tough to sit and critique both qbs because they both sucked last year.
THE BOTH SUCKED!!!! I hope one of them has improved.
“Clemens averaged more yards per attempt (6.1 to 5.8) on short passes (1-10 yards) last season. Pennington, who is supposed to have the weaker arm of the two, averaged more yards per attempt (8.9 to 8.8) on medium passes (11-19 yards), more yards per attempt (11.3 to 8.7) on deep passes (20-29 yards) and more yards per attempt (22.8 to 12.3) on the longest passes (30-plus yards).”
That’s actually exactly what I’d expect to see considering Defenses are going to play each QB differently. They’re more concious of the dink and dunk stuff with pennington and they’re concerned with “down the field” for clemens. these stats show nothing more than what the defense gave the offense when each qb was running the show.
I want to thank basset and his crew for having such an awsome blog compared to what ive seen on the phinsider and the other ones… for starters theres no need to start an account on TJB where as on the other ones thats needed… i dont like making accounts on websites and that discourages me from posting but on TJB it makes it easyfor everyone to voice their opinion!!!
Thanks again guys…
I would give Klemens this whole season! With our extra picks in next years draft we will take a shot at any QB we *Want* or We’ll have a good QB in Klemens. Competition is always best for the team but you can still root for some one.