PFP on Jerricho Cotchery

Over the course of the next few days, we’re going to share some “nuggets” (trademark, Adam Schein) with you from the new Pro Football Prospectus to encourage you to buy it yourself. Sean McCormick who comments on TJB (as seanmac) is actually one of the contributing writers to PFP and had a number of things to say about the book, but this I thought was the most compelling to you “I would think that anyone who is serious enough about football to be hanging around at TJB would want a copy.” Onto the nuggets …

“When analyzing Cotchery, you must … account for context. The Jets had no offensive line and no running game last year. Their quarterbacks were either inexperienced or soggy-armed. Cotchery still caught 82 passes with fine peripherals. Cotchery is one of the best receivers in the league at route running and exploiting zone coverage … on a better team, he would have scored 10 touchdowns and averaged 16 yards per catch. He’s a true number-one receiver whose numbers [were] held back by his supporting cast.”

Thank you PFP … this is what I’ve been pointing to since last summer about Cotch. He’s the team’s number one now … not Coles. Which is not to say that Coles still can’t offer the team leadership and guidance in addition to his abilities. So when Coles whines to the press about running “clear-outs” for Cotchery, he should be grateful.  With Stuckey and Smith playing slot and potentially knocking at the door along with Dustin Keller poised to replace Baker and be a more attractive target, it’s not going to get better for Coles with the Jets in the remaining two years of his contract.

You can find PFP on Amazon, or at major booksellers (Barnes & Noble, Borders, etc.) everywhere. To learn more about Football Outsiders, check out their website.

21 Responses to “PFP on Jerricho Cotchery”

  1. I completely disagree with this assessment. Coles’ skill set has always been more impressive than Cotchery’s from a purely athletic standpoint. Coles is faster, quicker and can far out jump Cotchery. Both are equally tough, hard-nosed, competitive and possess a strong desire to win. Both have terrific hands and show a willingness to catch the ball in traffic. However, when healthy the edge goes to Coles… any day of the week. If Cotchery’s numbers suffered so much at the hands of his “weak supporting cast”, then doesn’t it follow that Coles’ numbers suffered too? Don’t get me wrong, I love both of these guys. I even own a Cotchery jersey! But to say that Cotch is a truly legitimate #1 type NFL wideout is a pretty asinine claim if you ask me.

  2. Scott, while generally I’d like to see a little more raw athleticism and speed from a true #1 WR, I do find that this article gave me some legitimate reasons to at least accept the possibility that with an improved offense, he could put up legit #1 WR numbers, and eventually earn that designation from me.

  3. If , only if, I mean there are plenty of players that suffer on bad teams.

  4. Despite my full-throated endorsement of the Prospectus yesterday, I have to admit that I found their NYJ synopsis a tad cliche for them. They called #81 “Justin” Keller, amongst other mistakes. And when it comes to Cotch, I’m having a hard time squaring their assertion that he’s a #1 and their projection that his numbers will go down from last year.
    In general terms, I wish the verbatims under player profiles were more an analysis of their research — and hoped they would do more player comparisons, meaning that they would compare the career trajectories of like players (Cotch reminds us of ’so-and-so’ at thi stage of his career).

  5. On a less serious note, we need to come up with a better nickname than “Cotch”. It sounds too much like “Crotch”, hardly the kind of menacing moniker you’d like for a football player.

  6. Crotch sounds good, wont be mistaken for anyone.

  7. Did someone say nickname?

    Some people call him Cotch-Rocket, while others prefer Catchery. JC would probably do just fine (then the media can get excited over the JC-Penny combination).

    I like footballoutsiders, but I don’t think I will buy the book. I find it pretty amazing that they have made several elementary mistakes in the Jets paragraph alone.

  8. fair enough. I still think that Cotch Rocket’s number will bear out that he’s the number one this season. What bothers me is when people don’t see the change in Coles’ game from the early to late 2000s.

    as far as the mistakes, i noted them too … they botched the titans loss, and then made subsequent mistakes surrounding it (number of points scored in last two games for penny) and even noted that Clemens was injured in week 14 only to note that it was week 15 later on in the same article. it’s dissappointing, but i still think that the essence of the whole book far surpasses KC Joyner’s work far and away.

    there’s a bunch of other good stuff that i’ll share, and I think it’s worthwhile to do so.

  9. I’d have to agree that the Jets chapter isn’t the strongest in the book. I lobbied to do them myself, but in the wake of the Patriots Super Bowl meltdown and the site’s perceived Pats bias, they assigned someone with no AFC East affiliation to do the entire division. (Which is not to slam the writer in any way, as he does great work, but I would have preferred to see the chapter go in a slightly different direction.)

  10. I think it’s better that a neutral should cover the teams in each division. It’s a shame they wouldn’t let you proof read it, though.

    I will look forward to Bassett picking out the good bits for me, but rest assured I will continue to recommend and use data from the site and the book(s).

    It would be good if Cotch’s yards per catch numbers would go up. Adding Keller and bolstering the running game should help this. You would think that having a stronger armed QB would help too, but Kellen averaged fewer yards per attempt because he was less accurate, so I don’t necessarily think this will be the case.

    As an example, Al Toon’s average per catch varied at times in his career, but had little to do with who was throwing him the ball. The lower amounts coincided with times when the likes of McNeil, Walker and other playmaking options were hurt.

  11. how about ” CATCHERY “

  12. What about ‘J-Co’ ?

  13. His last name is too compelling not to incorporate into his handle. Gotta’ be Cotch. Anything else would be working too hard.

  14. What about JerCo?

  15. Scott, How does your argument go that Cotch isnt better than Coles, then end it, thats why he’s not a #1? What is it that Cotch cant do? Speed? He returned a kickoff for a TD and he tourched NE twice on long plays one being that Miracle catch and the other was like a 70 catch and run. #1 can be Steve Smith OR Michael Irving/Keyshawn. Far from acinine? I think so.

  16. The key to Scott’s comment is “if healthy.” Using that critria Chad Pennington is a pro bowler “if healthy.”

    Cothery will have the better year.

  17. If JC gets open, holds onto the ball, and does what he has been doing for the past few years – I could care less if anyone considered him a #1 or a #2. If you were a Patriot fan, would you care if they called Wes Welker a #2 – No. You would love the fact that he is on your team and doing some serious damage. When Keyshawn was bad-mouthing Chrebet, did you care – No. Keyshawn was a moron.

    I am really happy with JC. I think that all of the new weapons will make him look that much better. As far as I am concerned – he is a #1.

    I just want depth on the O-Line. Until I see the pick-ups, I am going to mention it in post after post. Even Greg Buttle mentioned it on Jet Nation. Wake up, Tannenbaum!

  18. I just feel that Coles is being slighted big time.

    “Thank you PFP … this is what I’ve been pointing to since last summer about Cotch. He’s the team’s number one now … not Coles.” This statement is just wayyyy too strong, and I don’t even think its correct. Why exactly should Coles be thankful about clear outs for Cotchery? This doesn’t make sense. Why can’t Cotchery just be a good player on his own merit and not at the expense of Coles? And to suggest that Stuckey and Smith are “knocking at the door”, presumably poised to replace Coles, is even crazier. Just how far down the depth chart do you plan on dropping Coles? This is a damn good football player.

    I personally still believe Coles to be the Jets number one target at WR. He’s just a better athlete, who can do everything Cotchery can do, plus more. Don’t write this guy off yet.

  19. yea they right and he was injured 4 a few weeks and madden wronged him they should have atleast put him in the 90’s

  20. the giants signed olivea. We missed the boat on that one. Way to sleep, Tangini.

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