TJB Scout: Miami Dolphins
The regular season is upon us and hopefully, starting on Sunday at 1, the 4-12 mess that was called the 2007 season can be put behind the Jets (and us) for good!
Of course, the Miami Dolphins are trying to put a mess of their own behind themselves, and are pulling a page from the Jets playbook to do it — “After going 1-15, bring in Bill Parcells and let him buy the groceries!”
In typical Parcells style, before he started shopping, he cleaned out the pantry — almost completely, as only 26 players are left over from last season. He also fired GM Randy Mueller and head coach Cam Cameron, in addition to cutting Zach Thomas and shipping off Jason “Twinkle Toes” Taylor. He then brought in a bunch of his Dallas lieutenants including Jeff Ireland as GM and Tony Sparano as head coach, as well as a number of hold-the-fort stalwarts, like Jason Ferguson and Sean Ryan.
Simply, these are not your 1-15 Dolphins. They have completely made over the roster, and although no one expects a championship overnight, should be significantly improved from the outset. And although the Jets have beaten the Dolphins 7 of the past 8 times, it’s a new year.
Let’s go a-scoutin’!
Cheerleader check: The only redeeming thing about the Dolphins, now that you mention it.
The scene: The juggernaut that will be the 2008 New York Jets season launches at Dolphin Stadium in Miami at 1 p.m. Shared with the Florida Marlins, it’s a natural grass surface. The forecast says a likely chance of heavy rain, strong gusting winds and high heat — in the 90s — which sounds sort of nasty.
Record: It’s a shiny brand new season, and every team — including the Dolphins, who managed one measly win last year — are tied with the Jets at 0-0.
Barometer: Rising. Much like the Jets, after a horrid 2007 season, there only seems to be one way for the Dolphins to go, and that’s up!
Old Friends: The aforementioned defensive tackle Jason Ferguson followed Bill Parcells over from Dallas, as did former Jets offensive coordinator Dan Henning. The Dolphins also signed Jets draft pick Nate Garner, former Jets tight end Ryan, and oh yeah, CHAD PENNINGTON! (An aside: As Chad was one of my favorite Jets, I truly wish him the best in Miami — just not this week or any other time they face the Jets!)
Questions: With the Big Tuna bringing in so many groceries, are the Dolphins ready to cook yet? What can we expect out of rookie head coach (and local Connecticut boy) Tony Sparano? How will Pennington fare against his former teammates? Who is going to lead the dance on defense with Taylor gone? Will Joey Porter shut up long enough to play football?
Key injuries: In a bit of gamesmanship, the Dolphins listed no one on their official injury report this week, even though Ronnie Brown has been struggling with a thumb injury and Joey Porter has a sore lower back.
Five things to know about the Dolphins offense:
- The return of the prodigal son – After practicing against them for the last eight years, no quarterback in the NFL knows the Jets defenders like Chad Pennington. And being one of the smartest quarterbacks in the league, there’s no doubt he and venerable offensive coordinator Dan Henning (who coached him as a rookie) have been brainstorming as how to best exploit the Jets’ tendencies and weaknesses. Both are also huge proponents of the play-action pass, so the Jets secondary needs to pay attention. (Dwight Swipe, I’m looking at you!)
- Still smoking – As running back Ronnie Brown has been slowly brought back to form during his rehab from last year’s season-ending knee injury, former rushing champion Ricky Williams has worked his way into the mix, playing well enough not only to win the starting job, but to even earn an extension. In six games against the Jets, Williliams has averaged 88.3 yards and scored 5 TDs. Still, expect to see plenty of Brown, also.
- Ginn blossoms? – Inexplicably high-picked return man Ted Ginn Jr. had an okay rookie campaign, catching 34 passes for 420 yards and a pair of TDs. If he can continue to show progress as he did in the latter half of last year, he could be a genuine weapon on offense.
- Scrambling man? – First overall pick and left tackle Jack Long joins a rebuilt line which also features another new addition in guard Justin Smiley. Stalwart Vernon Carey moves over to right tackle, while the middle is anchored by promising young center Samson Satele. How quickly this unit jells will determine if Pennington can stay upright or will be running for his life. It has the makings of a very good unit.
- Who are these guys? – After Ginn, the receiving corps is a middling group at best, with Derek Hagans currently starting across from Ginn and former Jaguar Ernest Wilford in the rotation. Tight end Anthony Fasano came over from Dallas to join the tight ends, which also includes Ryan and David Martin.
Jersey watch (offense): Pretty Ricky still wears #34, and can wear out a defense.
Five things to know about the Dolphins defense:
- T-minus Miami – Longtime defensive stalwarts Taylor and Thomas are gone from the Dolphin defense, replaced by linebacker Channing Crowder in the middle (he’ll have the defensive headset in his helmet) and a pair of impressive rookies: second-rounder Philip Merling and third-rounder Kendall Langford. Although Taylor is still a disruptive force, injuries (and time) had slowed Thomas, so their departures will eventually make the defense younger and faster — although better still has yet to be seen.
- Where the Tuna goes, the 3-4 flows – In a move less shocking than John McCain accepting the GOP presidential nomination, Parcells and Sparano have brought the 3-4 defense to the Dolphins, run by defensive coordinator (and Connecticut native — see a pattern yet?) Paul Pasqualoni. This version of the 3-4 is a hybrid version, so you can expect to see the outside linebackers lining up with their hand in the dirt more than half the time.
- The mouth that roared – Perennial loudmouth and linebacker Joey Porter is back for year two, and although he still hasn’t explained why the Dolphins had the worst run defense in the league last year, he has had five or more sacks in eight consecutive seasons.
- Hold the fort – Actually, the entire Miami defense was putrid last season, so to sure it up a bit, Parcells and Co. brought in a number of seasoned veterans with some tread left: Ferguson, defensive tackle Randy Starks, linebacker Reggie Torbor and Akin Ayodele, among others.
- Saved by the Bell? – After an excellent rookie season in 2006, safety Yeremiah Bell tore his Achilles tendon in the opener last year and spent the season on IR. He’s back and playing well, starting at strong safety, while Jason Allen and Chris Crocker both will see plenty of time at free safety.
Jersey watch (defense): The #52 of Crowder will be involved early and often.
Three things about the Dolphins special teams:
- Cold Ginn – Considering how early the Dolphins selected Ginn last year, he has been a bit disappointing in the return game, only averaging 22.7 yards on kicks and 9.6 on punts. He did return one punt 87 yards for a TD last season, but may improve upon that with better talent and coaching around him.
- Big sky, big leg? – Undrafted kicker Dan Carpenter out of Montana surprisingly beat out veteran Jay Feely in training camp, after Feely set the Dolphin record for field goal accuracy last season. Carpenter was decent in preseason (7/8 on FGs, 6/6 on XPs) but struggled to get his kickoffs deep.
- Less green Fields – With the dismal Miami offense last year, punter Brandon Fields got lots of on-the-job training in his rookie season, punting 77 times and averaging 43.2 yards/punt with a 36.6 net.
What to expect from the broadcast booth: The game is on WCBS-TV (Channel 2 – New York), and because of the many great storylines, has drawn the network A-Team: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms. As such, expect Simms to focus heavily on Parcells and how he’s taken charge in Miami, although I’m sure he’ll tell the story about how he talked Brett Favre out of retirement. The first time.
Spotlight matchup: Jake Long vs. Calvin Pace – Although much will probably be made of Gholston and the one time he beat Long for a sack in college, Long will probably see more of Pace throughout the afternoon. Welcome to the NFL rook!
The pressure is on: The revamped Dolphin offensive line to give Pennington time to execute the play-action as well as create holes for Williams to run through.
Expect the unexpected from: The Dolphins defense — this is barely the porous unit from last year, and may prove to a better-than-expected challenge for Favre and the offense, which is still jelling.
Bottom line: The Dolphins may be even more desperate and ready to put a horrible 2007 season behind them than the Jets, and with the confidence instilled by the presence of Parcells — as well as more talented bodies — will be playing hard from the opening kick. They have a chip on their collective shoulder, and nothing would give them (and Chad, in particular) more pleasure than taking out the rival Jets on Opening Day. Be ready for a fight in Florida!
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I could not possibly be more nervous for this game- This has all the makings of a tight one
The Fish will feed Ricky early and move the ball downfield for field goals and possibly a touchdown — However, barring a Fish special teams touchdown or defensive turnover setting up a short touchdown drive, that will be the extent of the Dolphins scoring — Chad will implode late in the game when he has to throw but can’t because he is Chad and he lacks the arm strength to throw a football more than five yards on a line — Look for him to lay out Ted Ginn over the middle early and the entire Dolphins receiving corps in out patterns late — Ricky Williams will have a huge day, but the Fish in no way can overcome the deficiencies of their quarterback — Jets 34 Fish 13
run the ball, stop the run.
I just recieved the heartbreaking news that i have baseball scrimmages for my college sunday at 12pm therefore i will miss this game….where will i be able to watch it again after? i dont think i will be able to record it at school….
PLEASE HELP
bad weather imroves the chances of the game not being decided on merits (but rather dumb luck), which isn’t a good thing.
may the best team (on paper) win.
From today’s ESPN Power Rankings.
16 (23) Jets 4-12-0 The O-line appears fantastic, and their defensive additions have made a noticeable difference. If Brett Favre can cope with the big change, look out. (TG
I agree that as Sunday approaches, I am beocming increasingly more nervous. A loss here would be disastrous.
That being said, I do have a strong sense of optimism lingering deep down that we will be very excited as the clocks ticks to zero.
I’ll take a win anyway they get it but for me to continue this overall giddyness for the season, I personally need to see a butt whooping.
I want Chad sacked 5-6 teams, a few turnovers and a lot of rounded offense.
I’m worried, then I’m excited but at the end of the day- Jets need to roll and do it convincingly.
24-7 Jets.
We’ll get this one. The D is in tune with Chad’s rhythm(including is excellent play action), so I expected to see a few picks in the rain. Chad throws ducks in nice weather, so the Jets will be on the hunt in the stew.
I completely respect Chad as a heady QB, but will enjoy watching Favre gun it through the rain to a wide open Cotch, after the CB slips in the mud.
What makes me nervous is the weather. Rain is the great equalizer – when talking about Chad, people mention that he beat the pats in ‘06, but that was on a rainy day in New England when the Jets ran pretty well. No doubt that Favre can zing it in the rain (and Chad can’t), but slips and freak plays due to bad weather can affect both teams equally, which is bad for us.
Three day forecast for Miami does not include rain. Hanna will be well of the coast, coming ashore in Georgia, if memory serves. Temp to be about 90. Good thing they practiced in the heat this summer. Should stand them good stead.
Most power rankings have moved the Jets to between 13 and 16. Down from 23 to 25. Or up, depending on your point of view.
My main concern is if the defense can hold after an interception or if the air goes out of them. My prediction is they hold and hold and hold. Mostly field goals rather than TDs.
Jets offense will score TDs. I’m guessing three plus two or three FGs.
My prediction 30 to 16.
Ed L , if you’re in the SNY reception area, I think they replay the game.
Put 8 in the box and let them try to beat us in the air.
Gang green should have no trouble with this one. Jets 27-3
Gang green should have no trouble with this one. Jets 27-3
HMMMMMMMMMMM Ill give Jake Long his due as he was the #1 pick in the draft and Pace is an ” okay” pass rusher. The weak point, thier LG. MIami will most likely need to give Samole help with Jenkins, my guess is smiliey. If the Jets blitz Pace on the left side it takes VErnon Carey out and leaves Ellis one on one with a LG whos name ive never heard before.
On O the JEts need to go after Miamis putird CBs. Put MIami behind and make them abandon Ricky Williams and the play action. Our Wrs are way better then Miamis secondary and I look for Keller t do well.
I think D Brick handles Porter and Mangold handles FErguson.
why does RAIN & Miami bring back my worst memory every?
But I am all positive thoughts this season – think we win this by at least 2 TDs
This is gonna be a tight one…I’m thinking 21-16…
This game scares the heck out of me but what a better way to get favres feet wet. The dolphins almost have to be better this year so it should be a tough test. At least were not starting the year against the pats again
dolphins win 21-12
GOOOOO DOLPHINSSS!!!!!
For a second there i thought it said Tony Soprano was the Dolphins head coach!… Time to pay Mr. Pennington a visit…
jjp — 2112 is Rush’s best album, but as far as Sunday goes — Jets 34 Fish 13