San Diego – What the Numbers Say!
R in CT has already given us a terrific look into the Chargers for tonight’s game. I thought it might be interesting to do a little statistical analysis to see if a few more fruits might be encouraged to fall off the tree.
TREFF (Teams Ranked by Efficiency) provides some interesting team numbers for San Diego going into tonight’s game. Let’s break it down beginning with game one, against Carolina:
In game 1, SD’s offensive production was rated ‘above average.’ That is, they produced more impact drives (drives that are time consuming, obtain first downs and cover significant yardage) than the average for NFL teams that week. The rating was ‘above average’ (not ‘significantly above average’ or ‘very significantly above average’) because the difference was not that large. That is, they didn’t produce offense significantly more than average (they actually produced about half a standard deviation more for those statistically minded). In addition, while they scored more points than average on offense (does not include fumble/interception returns, etc.), they did not produce as efficiently as some other clubs. Their offensive efficiency would be rated ‘average.’
Defensively, in the Carolina game, SD rated ‘significantly below average.’ They allowed considerably more impact drives than average (more than a standard deviation below the mean).
Game two, against Denver is a fascinating study in the misrepresentation of scores. While the Chargers scored 38 points, they had only three impact (offensive) drives in the entire game! They produced virtually no offense in the second and fourth quarters (at least in terms of dominating time of possession and the field). As a rating, their offense performed ‘below average,’ exactly the opposite of the popular perception. On the other hand, their scoring efficiency was off the charts. While these numbers ignore special teams plays (which are unpredictable and have nothing to do with offensive and defensive efficiency), the Chargers still scored a lot of points but much of the scoring came as a result of big plays, for example, long completions. Thus, their overall rating on offense for the week would be hard to estimate. If you believe they can continue to produce big plays, it would be significantly above average. If not, average.
On defense in week two, San Diego got pushed all over the field. They allowed Denver to totally dominate the game producing many, long, time-consuming drives. SD’s rating on defense for this game was ‘very significantly below average.’
So, that’s the breakdown. The Jets are lining up against an offensively inconsistent club with a very poor defense (at least judging by the first two games) that has, nevertheless, shown evidence of big play ability. The message for the Jets would seem to be obvious. Stop the big plays. If they can do this, they’ll have a good chance to win.
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Nice … my head is spinning a bit, but great info here.
And if the key is holding down the big plays, then that helps the Jets because they seem to rarely give up back-breakers. Revis should contain Chambers, Lowery will be on Vincent Jackson, which leaves Gates as a potential problem. I wonder if we will see any of Justin Miller tonight? I think he’s an upgrade over Coleman as a nickel. If nothing else, he’d be another fast guy on the field to help blunt the Chargers big-play weapons.
Dare I say it? I think they’re leaning towards David Barrett to pick up Gates in passing situations if Miller can’t go.
not for nothing…But who cares about your standard deviation stats and all this mumbo jumbo. We just need to go out and perform at the leve we know we can. If we play up to the level we can and let Brett do his thing, we can come out on top
Dave75
Sorry if that seemed a bit dense. Then again, you’ve already analyzed the game, as I can easily see.
Just “perform.” Excellent.
andrew – i havent seen anything great out of eric smith so maybe Barret will be an upgrade. Barret’s problem is covering WR, and he just doesnt have the speed anymore to do that. He should hopefully be able to keep up with TE, just hope he can tackle them. The problem is that Barret is on the small side to be covering TE, he is only 5′10″. I really think we need to just tell Kerry Rhodes to cover The Great TE’s when we face them even if thats not his supposed role. Well i will keep dreaming on that one!
Nice Article, oh by the way…..STATS ARE FOR LOSERS!!!!!
Forget the numbers…NEW YORK BRETTS ! We’ve got freakin’ Brett!
Paul at Sportslaugh
Sportslaugh2008@yahoo.com
http://www.sportslaugh.com
Andrew:
Great article and it speaks volumes about SD’s performance. We must take advantage of what the stats indicate. If we do, we WILL win !!
Paul at Sportslaugh you are really funny. You remind me of another guy on this blog that keeps spouting “Farve is the team, the team is Farve” then wants Mangini fired because the team loses !! Now that’s Funny !!!
j, do you know how old you are?
Those stats are useful to show how the team is ACTUALLY performing. Dave and J, continue to look at boxscores in a vacuum and we will see who has a better grip on the league.
BillV,
I have season tickets since 1966, you tell me what stats are good for. I am plenty old, and getting older each game I watch this team play!
The only stats that count are Wins and Losses, you guys can try to figure out who is a better team, but I look at the records, not the amount of yards a team can pile up.
Last year the Pats had much better stats than the Giants, but the Giants won the Superbowl, which would you rather have.
I totally agree with J. The NFL is so unpredictable from one week to another. What would your stats have asaid regaridng NE/MIA yesterday. Totally disproves your little theory. Go Jets. Just WIn
Thank You Dave,
This is not fantasy football, I could care if they have the worst stats in the league, Wins and Losses, that is the only stat that counts.
Ok, all of you saying stats mean nothing are not far off from the truth. Stats are a very large portion of this game as gameplans are made based on stats. My disagreement with this entire blog is that you can not use standard deviation on such a small sample size, it would be much more realistic to use such tools starting week 8 and beyond. These stats are based on nothing as no one team is going to be the same exact team starting on week 8. The whole thing about football is they are expected to get better week to week and fully blossom by week 10-14. Please I’m sick of this TREFF crap before week 5. Give it a rest and lets play some football!!!!
LETS GO JETS
My keys to the game:
1. As every week, HIT THE QUARTERBACK, and HIT HIM HARD! If any of you saw that Pit. Steelers game, we saw it is impossible to be hit HARD in the begining of a game without striking fear into the leader of the Offense for the rest of the game.
2. Set up the run with the passing offense early in the game! Can be vice versa if a lead is in place and only if it works!
Well, we’d have a chance if we had a real OC, a more aggressive DC and a real HC.
I bet Should-be-Shott makes Teddy C look svelte and brilliant, even if he’s caught with his fingers in the donut box.
If we manage to get ahead, Sutton will save the Chargers bacon by playing not to lose. And, we can always count on Graham.
We should be grateful we have such a generous coaching staff that they make other teams look better than they are.
harlan
Sorry guys. I wasn’t intending to offend anyone with something I thought was interesting.
If I get your point, you want ingenious aphroisms like “HIT THE QUARTERBACK” and “perform” and “get rid of the coach.” You want Peter King style analysis. Idle, ill informed opinion. You don’t want anyone to actually break down the other team. I get it. And all numbers lie, right?
I just have one question. I said up front that I was adding some statistical analysis to flesh out the keys to the game. If you didn’t want all this “crap” or “mumbo jumbo,’ why did you bother to read it? If you had no interest and have no faith in statistics, why consume it and then publicly express your belief that it’s inherently pointless? If you wanted everyone to know how you felt,we’ve got it. You don’t need to tell us any more. I do have a suggestion. Don’t read it next time. I won’t be offended.
BTW, All Things NY, the n for average efficiency per game is 32. Exactly why is standard deviation not useful? Actually, don’t answer that. I don’t want to give you a headache.
Andrew,
The only thing offensive is the Jets offense. Numbers are fine, but after 2 games they are meaningless.
In football, matchups dictate the outcome more than the previous results. If you want to talk about tonites game you should highlight the matchups and put some statistics to back up your point.
Like (San Diego O against a 3-4 D, or Jets D against teams that have top RB’s)
harlan
i agree with everything you said except the part about a real HC…i just dont think its time to fire MANGINI…if at the end of the season we are not a top 5 OFFENSE and DEFENSE then we have to look for a new DC and OC…i want a high powered offense and defense before the year is finished…we have the talent to become a dominating team…a team that others fear to play…a team that others hate to play…
but that all depends on the trust the coaches have in the talent we have on this team…
j
Sorry I haven’t given you what you want.
But, you’ve already said that stats are “meaningless,” “FOR LOSERS” and that “The only stats that count are Wins and Losses.”
I hardly think what you really want are more stats.
The keys to this game
1. Score more points than the other team.
2. Don’t let the other team score as many points as you.
3. Carry 4 QBs and 4 kickers.
It will come together. It may take some time, but Brett is too good and there is too much talent around him for the Jets not to gel. They have built it, it will come.
Paul at Sportslaugh
http://www.sportslaugh.com
sportslaugh2008@yahoo.com