Explain This!
Here are some interesting numbers that cry out for an explanation. They are the first half vs. second half NFL offensive performance numbers. I’ll just give you a few that are pretty tantalizing.
New York Jets – First Half Avg Impact Drives Per half = 1.6, Second Half = 2.9. That’s worst to first nearly. The Jets’ first half performance is fourth worst in the NFL while in the second half they’re second best in the league. Lest you think all clubs do this, the Saints, who last night had four impact drives in the first half and only two in the second half, are 3.4 and 1.3, first-half/second-half. The opposite pattern from the Jets and consistent, if last night’s action is any indication.
The Giants, btw, rank first in the first half and second in the second-half. A model of consistency and clearly the best offense in the league at producing impact drives. The Browns are last in both halves. Clearly, the worst offense in the NFL. Teams with big discrepancies include first-half great-second-half poor clubs like the Saints (Eagles, Panthers, 49eres, Bears) and second-half great-first-half poor offensive clubs like the Jets (Texans, Chiefs). Models of consistency include poor offensive clubs (Browns, Rams, Vikings, Lions) and excellent ones (Gaints, Cardinals, Broncos).
I’d be glad to post the numbers if anyone’s interested. So how do you explain it?
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My guess would be that two teams go into the half and make adjustments, some more successfully than others. I’m happy to see the Jets be more successful at adjustments, though we’d all probably wish they didn’t need to!
I’m not that surprised. The Jets are always a one half team. The only question is which half it will be.
zenlaw
The second if the past predicts the future.
The Jets often come out with a “run-first” philosophy that has proved to be unsuccessful; but, my guess is that the score dictated these results. With an early lead in the first half, the Jets usually try to coast in the 2nd half, which produced a far closer game than necessary against the Fins and a need to ramp up the offense again against the Cards. Against the Pats and Chargers, both teams went into “prevent” type defenses in the second half, which allowed the Jets to produce points in the 2nd half. These stats tell me that the Jets are struggling to get early leads and need to keep the pedal to the metal (with more of an emphasis on long and sustained drives) until late in the 4th quarter when they’re leading.
I suspect it has a lot to do with the effort to “establish the run,” (a phrase maddeningly overused) early in the game. Trying to run when the D expects you to run is likely to establish very little. Unless of course the D is a 3-4 anchored by an undersized, gap shooting D-lineman with bad knees and featuring an undersized MLB who gets blown up by guards. But that’s just spilt milk.
Somewhere it was written that winning teams were running up the score with the passing game then sitting on the lead and running out the clock. Maybe this is the ‘running’ you refer to.