Outsiders Look: Kansas City Chiefs
Once a week, we take a look at some of Football Outsider’s statistical tools to help you get a sense of what you can expect this weekend from the Jets and their opponent.
No excuses this weekend. Not only win this game at home, but to blow out their opponent.
Herm Edwards’ team is on their third quarterback (for the second time) and might be without their star tailback. Even so, the Chiefs shocked the world when they beat down a very hot Denver Broncos team a few weeks back. Be prepared for anything, but if the Jets can’t win this game, there’s going to be mutiny by fans in the Meadowlands.
Chiefs Offense
Passing Rank — 32th
Rushing Rank — 30th
O-Line Sack Rank — 26rd w/ 8.1% sack rate
O-Line Rush Rank — 30th w/3.69 Adjusted Line Yards
Translation — This offense doesn’t go much, but when it does, the only thing that makes it go is the running back, Larry Johnson. The line is creating a terrible push to help the runners ranking 30th in Line Yards, but somehow this running corps has the second most 10+ Yard runs, which generally means that it’s the running backs who are doing the tough work without the help of their line.
The passing game has struggled all season, but don’t blame the guys catching the ball. Dwayne Bowe (34REC, 410YDS, 2TD) and Tony Gonzalez (27REC, 290 YDS, 2TD) have been doing their jobs, it’s the issues at the QB position that are causing the problems. Former 3rd string QB Tyler Thigpen is slated to start due to injuries. Thigpen has thrown for a passer rating under 50, and wisely Herm is still shopping for options to lead the offense, but hasn’t settled on anyone who could come in for this weekend.
The Jets plan is simple. Neutralize the run game, and force the Chiefs to pass the ball. The defensive lineman need to take over the line of scrimmage like they have most of the season, and have the linebackers play disciplined gap control to keep the Chiefs running backs from ripping off long gains. Sound tackling is key. The Chiefs run the ball well outside the tackles, but do it infrequently.
Chiefs Defense
Passing Rank — 25th
Rushing Rank — 31th
D-Line Sack Rank — 32nd w/ 2.8% sack rate
D-Line Rush Rank — 27th w/4.69 Adjusted Line Yards
Translation — I think that this game should be a benchmark for Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer as this is one of the league’s worst defenses. What can he do against a team that has no signature strengths? The Jets should be able to pass and run on this team at will. If last week was any indication, Thomas Jones should be able to run through this front seven like a hot knife through butter. Beyond just the Chiefs lagging line yards, the Jets would be wise to run behind D’Brick and Faneca in this game as it’s likely where they’ll get their longest gains against the Chiefs personnel on that side of the field.
Depending on whether Coles and Cotchery start at receiver, the Jets might have some misfires early in the game when they pass the ball. The Chiefs are good against the team’s top passing threat and slot receivers, but are flat out bad against Tight Ends and Running Backs. Look for Baker to be a part of the gameplan again, while Keller might be seen lined up closer to the formation than he has in previous weeks. Leon should have his hands and feet ready to take some checkdowns deep against a linebacking corps that is struggling to find their identity.
Chiefs Special Teams
If the Chiefs are smart, they will eliminate the Jets biggest special teams strength, Leon’s kick returns. It’s worked for both the Raiders and the Patriots. The area where the Chiefs match up best over the Jets is in the punting game, so look for the Chiefs to have the upper hand if the game turns into a field position battle, which if it does, means this blog will self-destruct.
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In order for Jet fans to have true faith in making the playoffs, the Jets must win convincingly against the Chiefs and then beat the Bills the following week.
sorry- accidentally left off the S on the JETS
Hope we can pull it together with Cotch and/or Coles in street clothes and Smith/Stuckey starting. Our injuries may change expectations/the spread.
Great last line Bassett! Funny stuff.
If the Jets somehow lose to this atrocious Chief team, one of the worst NFL teams I’ve ever seen, destroyed by Herm Edwards, Eric Mangini needs to go.
Schottenheimer is probably thinking about how we can attack this team in a 5 WR set.
One point on special teams, the Chiefs just signed a journeyman punter. So, I would not expect that special teams will be an advantage for the Chiefs (plus, their kicker stinks).
Najy, he’ll see the Jets get 39 yards on 2 carries up the middle by TJ and then he’ll call a double reverse WR pass to Favre streaking down the sideline.
Sack – LOL !
“Shoot! Now that there is some GOOOD stuff!” (Mater, from Cars)
Mangini after the KC game:
Reporter:
What were you thinking about calling that play? Are you trying to get Favre killed?
Mangini:
Sometimes you get them, but it’s always a coordinated effort where you have to be able to run a good route, you have to be able to hold up in protection, you have to be able to make the right read.
We go into each week and we discuss the game plan. It’s a collaborative effort. It’s never something that’s just jammed
I still feel very good about what they’ve been able to do. This past week was a good indication of what the potential is in terms of running the football. It’s getting the balance of run and pass, being able to threaten the whole field every game that is what we’re looking for ideally. The level of communication, the things that they’ve had to deal with I thought overall have been very good.
On being unable to run the ball successfully in overtime at Oakland…
There were some successful drives there that stalled. Some of those were a function of penalties. I think we had a sack. We had one time where we had a wide open receiver and the guy fell down. I don’t think it was one issue, per se.
On how concerned he is about WR Jerricho Cotchery and T Damien Woody…
On how he is listing Cotchery and Woody on the injury report…
I don’t know yet.
On Cotchery’s and Woody’s injuries…
Damien will be a leg and Jerricho will be a shoulder.
On if there is any concern that WR Laveranues Coles has a concussion…
We don’t take any chances with any of those things. They have to be medically cleared. It doesn’t matter what the player wants or what the coach wants. They have to be cleared by the physicians on the sideline prior to ever being let back in the game.
We’ve spent a lot of time putting together a process that we
go home for a little bit of time, but you want them here, especially a guy like Chansi. I think he really took advantage of that year.
You didn’t see a big learning curve when he did get on the field because he spent so much time going to the meetings, studying the game plan and getting into that preparation routine. Even though he couldn’t do it physically, he was doing all those things from a mental perspective. That helped him significantly as he started the second season without the value of all the reps in practice.
On CBs Justin Miller and Drew Coleman being inactive at Oakland…
Jesse Chatman has helped us on special teams. He plays roles that are different than what those guys play and it usually takes a certain amount of body types that play certain
at the game, you always have an opportunity to play.
On if having a player with Favre’s reputation puts more pressure on him as a coach…
We’ve got guys with pretty good reputations in different positions. The important thing is for us to be able to incorporate all the strengths of all the different positions and to get something that we can continue to build on and grow with.
There’s a learning curve involved in all that stuff, but I like the way that these guys embrace that. I like the way that they work towards the plan each week. They build on the things that we’ve done. There’s no sense of “we need to do this for my numbers” or “we need to do this for my production.” It’s all a sense of what can we do to move the football and be successful.
On the perception that Favre has become larger than the team…
One of the things that makes that very easy is that regardless of what the external focus is on, that’s not what the internal focus is on and that’s not what Brett’s focus is on. That makes that part really easy. All Brett wants to do is help the team and improve his performance personally and improve the group’s performance. In terms of anything externally or the focus externally, that’s nothing that’s under our control, so we don’t try to control it.
On Favre’s demeanor this week…
One of the great things about him and one of the great things that makes him so successful is whether it’s adversity or success, he moves on to the next challenge, doesn’t celebrate too long, doesn’t lament too long. He moves on and
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tight end record there is. [Dwayne] Bowe had a great rookie season — he’s about 29 catches away from breaking the Kansas City two‑year record for receptions. There’s not much he can’t do in the pass game.
Defensively, there are some similarities here to what we’ve seen in Kansas City and some of what you see from the Buffalo approach, sort of a fusion of the systems, where
He played the Atlanta game. What I like that he did in the Atlanta game, at the end of the half, drove them down and was able to score with eight seconds left, came out in the second half, orchestrated another drive, was able to score there, and put them in position a third time to score. He was able to move the football pretty effectively when he was in.
He made some mistakes that you’d expect from a young guy,
It’s really about winning the game. Not momentum or anything else, just winning this game.
On if there are any issues with QB Brett Favre’s arm or shoulder…
No.
On if Favre is completely healthy…
On if he or other coaches around the league share information with opposing coaches…
Yeah, that’s not uncommon, either, especially if you’re friendly with a team that is playing your division and you’re playing their division and you’re not playing each other. That’s a great opportunity to do that because they have insight on those teams because they face them twice a year
Sometimes you get them, but it’s always a coordinated effort where you have to be able to run a good route, you have to be able to hold up in protection, you have to be able to make the right read. Some teams have decided to put more support in those areas, and that opens up other things, kind of like the running game where you can average 7, 8 yards a carry.
There were different things mixed in throughout the course of the game. It wasn’t typical in terms of the volume of pressure that they were able to bring. The variety of coverages was different than what they historically have been, not just this year but over time.
What you’re looking for is balance. Some games you’re down the throats of the players. It’s all part of trying to figure out what’s the best way to achieve success.
You’re up one week, you’re down the next week. It just depends what the end result is.
Najy – i look forward to the sequel of your new screen play….only make it longer next time! :-)
I didnt mean to make it that big. I copied and pasted the whole thing by mistake. Its still kinda funny tho.
Wait for the sequel. lol
I hope they open with five straight shovel passes as a tribute to past Jet heroes.
subwayfare,
No way man!!! Schotty is going to put Brett Favre at Qb again. Then he will have Brett Ratliff next to him in the slot. The formation is called “Bretts RIGHT”
Then, Shotty finally found a spot for for VG on the team. He will be taking snaps and handing the ball off to Brad Smith.
Schotty loves the fact that his arms are so big and that he can hold the ball very firmly so he puts him under center.
Baker and Keller will be on the bench and W. Hunter will be starting at TE in our Jumbo package. which includes 4 WR and W. Hunter.
Brett Favre at WRagain*
David Clowney-WR- Jets Oct. 23 – 2:16 pm et
Jets WR David Clowney is expected to be active Sunday for the first time this season.
Clowney’s collarbone has healed and he could potentially play outside in three-wide sets Sunday, but only if both Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles are out. Otherwise, Clowney would be no more than a fourth receiver.
Source: Newsday
Its time to bring out the Clown(ey).
And the kids rejoice…
Kansas City is terrible, theyre probably the worst team in the league. If the Jets dont play dominate football then we’re terrible too. This game only serves as a scrimmage to prepare the team for the Bills.
27 – 7 Jets
Given KC’s terrible run defense, how about actually establishing the run? And, if the Jets win the coin toss, how about deferring? If the Chiefs win, I bet they’ll defer, no way Herm wants Thigpen to start out the game, on the road, with a journeyman punter. Oh, wait, it’s Herm. Never mind.
Technically we just signed the punter as insurance becasue Dustin Colquitt is a little sore nobodyu has said whether or not Colquitt will start or not but he was on the injury report last week too and he punted that game so just becasue we signed the journeyman punter doesn’t mean we will use him, by the wya if this game is within 10 points by the end of the game the jets are not very good. IF the chiefs can keep it within that amount you guys will not make the playoffs
I don’t know where you got the idea of us being terrible against the TE we have not given up 100 yds to a te this season i don’t believe and we have been shredded by the teams number 1 receivers such as Roddy White, Randy Moss and Steve Smith but those teams don’t use their TE that much so i am really trying to figure out why you think any of your TE will have a huge game?
I would have to say that since we have a win and the bengals don’t that they are worse but im just throwing that out there
talk is that Herm will be back as a Jet coach next year. He will be there to teach the players how to lose with pride. That’s all he knows what to do AND HE’S REAL GOOD AT IT. Him and Mangini are like twins whan it comes to coaching. Boy we Jet fans are very lucky!!!
note: IAN in all caps is an imposter.
I don’t think he’s an imposter, he just happens to have the same name as you. It’s not uncommon…we have about six different Jeffs! We will however note the difference between IAN and ian.
Chiefs fans are welcome here, (as long as they keep it civilized).
I think the comment about being bad against TEs is based on FO data which may mean that although the raw numbers haven’t been good (perhaps because teams have built leads on them and then run the ball, so they haven’t had to pass as much), maybe the percentage of successful plays to TEs is especially high. I don’t know.
Any perception that the Bengals are better than the Chiefs is surely based on the fact that in recent weeks, Cincy has been competitive whereas the Chiefs have suffered a few blowouts.
True i give you that KC is a horrible horrible team and it pains me to say that but they do have a win where they put a whipping on a pretty good team in Denver, which the Bengals do not so yes they have been competitive but the chiefs were more competitive when they had to be and the BEngals were not as Competitive as they need to be so thus the Bengals are the worst team in the league. I think the Jets have the best TE that the chiefs will have faced this year to date if Baker or Keller have a good game than yes We suck defending TE but we have not been run around by the TE’s that we have faced this year so far, but we will see on Sunday