TJB Scout: New England Patriots
“Same old story,” said defensive end Shaun Ellis in September after the Patriots beat the Jets 19-10.
And who can blame him? After going 2-0 against them in his rookie season of 2000, he has watched in frustration as the Jets have gone 2-13 since. As a matter of fact, if not for the Jets win in Foxboro in 2006, it would be six straight seasons of being swept by the Patriots — enough to make anyone sick to their stomach.
But both teams have been playing well this year, coming into the game with identical 6-3 records and sole possession of first place in the AFC East on the line. Of course, the Patriots are still the pride of the NFL and darling of the media, fighting hard through numerous major injuries while HC Bill Belichick continues to do “his best coaching job ever.”
So the question is: Will Ellis continue to be sick, or is there a cure on the horizon?
Cheerleader check: As a matter of fact, the only thing to like about the Patriots.
The scene: The game is in the unfriendly confines of Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. Currently, the forecast is for in the 40s with a chance of showers.
Record: In case you’ve been living under a bridge, the Patriots are 6-3 and tied for first place in the AFC East.
Streaks: The Patriots have beaten the Jets 11 of the last 12 times they’ve faced each other, although outside of the win in Foxboro two years ago, it seems like 99 of the last 100.
Barometer: Holding steady. Even with all their injuries and setbacks, they are still the team to beat in the AFC East until proven otherwise.
Old Friends: I think we know by now who they have over there, although it would shock no one if Justin Miller arrives sometime in the next 24 hours.
Questions: Will the Jets ever beat the Patriots when it matters, or will it be another night of Charlie Brown having the football jerked away by Lucy?
Key injuries: It seems as though the Patriots have sustained an inordinate amount of serious injuries (Rodney Harrison, Laurence Maroney, Tad Brady, etc.) this season. The ones of concern for this week are running backs Sammy Morris (knee) and Lamont Jordan (calf), linebacker Adalius Thomas (arm), and cornerbacks Lewis Sanders (hamstring) and Terrance Wheatly (wrist).
Five things to know about the Patriots offense:
- King of the Cassel – Since taking over for Tom Brady in Week 2, Matt Cassel has steadily improved, going 4-2 in his last six games. He’s gone 179 of 267 (67%) for 1,800 yards with 7 TDs and 7 interceptions. He’s also much more mobile than Brady, having scrambled 43 times for 123 yards, including a TD on Sunday against Buffalo.
- Running Back Carousel – Unlike the Jets who have made it through the season with two running backs, the Patriots have gone through a half dozen or so due to injuries. With Laurence Maroney on IR and Lamont Jordan down, and Sammy Morris dinged up, the Patriots have turned to the always-reliable (and big playmaking) Kevin Faulk and undrafted rookie from Mississippi BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who had 105 yards and TD against the Bills.
- A Mature Moss Throws No Stones – Even if Tom Brady had been healthy, after coming off a record-breaking offensive season, there was only one way for the Patriots offense to go — down. Through nine games this season, Moss has 43 catches for 589 yards and 4 TDs — last year, he had 56 catches for 924 yards and 12 TDs in the first nine games. Rather than pout as he might’ve done in the past, Moss has embraced his role as an offensive captain on the team, saying the right things and leading by example.
- Wes is Best – It still boggles the mind that Miami traded Wes Welker to the Patriots — as the saying goes, “If the Patriots are interested in obtaining one of your players, that’s a pretty good sign that you should keep that player for yourself!” Welker has become Cassel’s favorite target, leading the Pats with 66 catches for 610 yards. The Jets have struggled to cover Welker — he had 7 catches for 72 yards in Week 2 this season, and many Jets fans are still haunted by Welker burning David Barrett for a TD opening day last season.
- Unjustly Ma-lined – After starting slowly, the All-Pro stacked Patriots offensive line has done a decent job as even with the parade of running backs, ranking 7th in rushing yards (133 yards/game) and 15th overall in yards (328.1 yards/game). They’ve only allowed 16 sacks and have given the Patriots an almost six-minute edge in time of possession over opponents (32.59 minutes/game to 27 minutes/game).
Jersey watch (offense): Look for the #83 of Welker to cause all sorts of problems in the short passing game.
Five things to know about the Patriots defense:
- Adalius A-damaged – Versatile linebacker Adalius Thomas apparently broke his forearm in Sunday’s win against the Bills, ending his season and further weakening a unit that’s appears to be on the downside. Tedy Bruschi (50 tackles) and Mike Vrabel (2 sacks), while still effective, have both lost a step, although rookie Jerod Mayo has shown great promise, already notching 65 tackles on the season. Third-year player Pierre Woods is expected to see time in Thomas’ absence, as is undrafted rookie Gary Guyton, who has already established himself as a reliable piece of the rotation.
- Secondary Seconds – In addition to Thomas, the Patriots have sustained injuries to other key defenders, including cornerbacks Lewis Sanders (hamstring) and Terrance Wheatley (wrist), as well as safety Rodney Harrison (IR), leaving an already thin secondary (following the departures of Asante Samuel and Randall Gay) even thinner. Cornerback Jason Webster was recently added, and along with Deltha O’Neal and safeties Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders, are part of a patchwork secondary that is still 15th against the pass (201 yards/game).
- Sack Slack? – The Patriots have notched 30 sacks so far, but Thomas was tied for the team lead with 5. With Thomas out of the lineup, it will affect how the Patriots try to bring pressure against the Jets — expect corners and safeties to chip with well-timed blitzes.
- Still Frontin’ - The Patriots defensive line is essentially the same one that always seems to give the Jets fits: big (and dirty) Vince Wilfork at the nose, the underrated Ty Warren (2 sacks) at one end and the sometimes ferocious Richard Seymour (5 sacks) at the other. The capable Jarvis Green rotates in from the bench.
- Still Bill – As usual, under Belichick, even banged up and missing people, the Patriots are among the better defenses in the league, ranking 7th in points allowed (17.8/game) and 12th in overall yardage (301 yards/game). Expect Belichick and coordinator Dean Peas to mix up and disguise coverages and blitzes, and the well-coached unit to capitalize on the Jets’ miscues. On Sunday, they took the deep passing game away from Buffalo, and limited the Bills to only 58 yards in the second half.
Jersey watch (defense): It’s never smart to turn your back on the #75 of Wilfork.
Three things about the Patriots special teams:
- He’s Gost It, By Gosh – It wouldn’t seem possible that Patriots fans could forget Super Bowl hero Adam Vinatieri, yet current kicker Stephen Gostkowski is doing everything he can to make it happen. He’s 21 of 23 (91.3%) this season, including making all 15 kicks from inside 40 yards. He’s also averaging 67.4 yards/kickoff with 14 touchbacks.
- Have a Seat Over There – Chris Hanson has performed well this season, chasing down numerous predators on “Dateline” … oh wait, wrong Chris Hanson. The Patriots’ Chris Hanson has performed well this season, averaging 44.3 yards/punt (35.4 net) with a long of 70 yards and 11 downed inside the 20.
- Kevin and Hobbs (and Wes) – The Patriots returners have been decent this year, lead on kickoff returns by Ellis Hobbs, who is averaging 28.7 yards/return. Faulk and Welker have both returned punts this year, averaging 15.1 and 14.1 yards/return respectively.
What to expect from the broadcast booth: The game is on the NFL Network and features the very competent team of Bob Poppa and Cris Collinsworth, so there should be some excellent in-game analysis. Of course, it being the NFL Network’s first Brett Favre game of the season, all the ridiculous hype and trappings that go with it will probably be included.
Spotlight matchup: Randy Moss and Wes Welker vs. Darrelle Revis and Dwight Lowery. Moss still is the most dangerous receiver in the NFL, and containing him often means Welker gets left in single coverage.
The pressure is on: The Patriots offensive line to protect Cassel from the Jets improved pass rush and to open holes for whoever is carrying the ball for them.
Expect the unexpected from: Benjamin Watson. Week in and week out, the Jets have proven incapable of covering tight ends, so look for Watson to exploit the matchups all night long.
Bottom line: In the words of Fox Mulder: “I want to believe.” I just have a feeling it’ll be the words of Shaun Ellis (yet again): “Same old story.”
Filed under: Main Page
This is the biggest game in Mangini’s career.
Jets need to win the battle in the trenches. O line needs to protect Favre from the NE zone blitzes and D line needs to put pressure on Cassel all day.
Pats have owned the line of scrimmage throughout their reign over the Jets
This time needs to be different!
This time it will be different.
I think the Jets anwered the bell over the last 2 weeks. The Bills game was a statement game and the Jets responded. This game could mean the division title.
I suspect the Jets will finally respond and take care of business. Imagine how tired they are of getting sand kicked in their face? The 1st game against NE was ours for the taking. We handed that one away.
I will be shocked if Mangini and company do the same tomorrow night. Go Jets
The Jets are going to win this game. The Jets are playing well, the Pats are banged up, and the Jets have a chip on their shoulder.
Nothing less than a “W” is acceptable.
Danny Mazz:
This time will be different. The Jets ARE NOT the same team they played Sept. 14th, infact we are not the same team we were three weeks ago. Some time after 11:30 pm Thurs. Nov 13th The Jets will own 1st place in the AFC.
Correction: AFC East.
You’ve got a pretty important mistake in here. The Patriots have allowed 30 sacks, not 16. Their defense only has 16 sacks.
Ok, how can the Jets win this game? Everytime something huge is on the line, this team falters. Granted this year they seem to be improving. The biggest disappointment of the year is obviously the loss in Oakland which was a miserable display of football. The Jets are second to the Giants in scoring which is only due to the huge lopsided wins over St. Louis and Arizona. Their run defense is very good but pass defense is questionable. New England and that hobo, classless coach always seem to pull it out agains t the Jets. That piece of @#$% Welker will probably bust out for 10 catches and well over 100 yards. Favre will probably choke and throw a few picks. I look for New England to win 24-13. Somebody tell me why I’m wrong…please…….
the most interesting and important game the jets have played in years.
Scary- We all have a certain level of fear when it comes to the Pats, but the Jet’s locker room probably a lot more than the Pats. Also their defense is currently not as talented as ours. Who on their D could run with Keller. Last game was decided by field position, so we booted that Australian and have a punter that can actually punt. Every facet of our game has been raised since week 2. It’s ok to be a little optimistic. I hope they stack the box to stop the run game. Favre isn’t my favorite person, but he can tear apart an undermanned secondary.
i agree with justagreenguy
but to add to this, i havent really felt this good about the jets since 2004. they had Kareem McKenzie and Jason Ferguson, who were 2 pieces that we never replaced. it was also chads best year and moss was killing the deep ball (OK kinda of)
but i feel with pace and jenkins on d and tj and fanica on O this is a new team with a great future. lets roll heads in new england tomorrow night. it will be great to make that state feel the pain. jets in a landside
is tomorrow night’s game on local tv or just nfl network?
Liam…it’s on the local WB affiliate (WB11, I believe)
Matt Cassell has completed 179 passes this season.
Out of those 179 completions, only two passes were longer than 40 yards, both of them to Randy Moss.
He has completed 16 passes between 20-40 yards. Moss has caught 7 of these, Welker another 7.
So out of 179 passes, only 18 have gone longer than 20 yards. That’s about 10%. So you pretty much know what their passing game is going to do.
With that in mind, here’s an interesting angle….how about putting Revis on Welker? I realize this leaves “someone other than Revis” on Moss, but if you take Welker away and rush the living daylights out of Cassell, then the odds of him completing long passes to Moss are, well, slim. And even if he beats you on one, at least it can help slow down the dink and dunk crap that we are no doubt going to see.
Here is what I fear….I fear that the Patriots are going to take advantage of the one real weakness I’ve seen in the Jets defense this year, and that is covering the short passing game. It minimizes the Jets pass rush, and exploits an area of weakness, not allowing the Jets defense to get off of the field. I’d rather make Matt Cassell beat me with long passes than chew up the clock and play the field position game with us, just like they did last time.
Only NFL Network. Head to a bar or watch it on nfl.com, but we warned the Nfl.com feed is awful and they don’t show every play. So maybe you get to watch 75% of the game and then listen to stupid analysts the rest of the time.
local TV CH.11 (NJ anyway) also on-line at NFL.com
The path to victory for the Jets is simple: score early and pressure the Pats to score TDs. The Pats will be content to go on long, ball control drives that result in FGs. That way they can shorten the game and maximize the chance that a mistake or special teams play (and we’ve seen way too many of both of these in the past) will tilt the game in their favor. If the Jets score TDs, however, then Cassell has to start going up top and spend more time in the pocket. That would make him vulnerable to the Jets’ pass rush. I do not want to make a prediction, but if this team, which has just finished playing it’s 2 best games of the season, can’t beat this banged up Pats team, then I don’t know what it would take to beat them.
walk in with an attitude….
go after casell….
intimidate…..
force turnovers…
win.
vbsiena24,
Where are you getting your information? I’ve been very confused over the last 2 weeks about this game because I know how the NFL Network loves to spoil thursday night games by not allowing local chanels to show the game. On the website it says that it will be on WPIX11 will have it on.. whats going on?!?!
WPIX 11 is carrying the game in the NYC-Metro area. The game will also be telecast on free TV in the Boston-Metro and Manchester-NH markets. So, Jets fans in most of NJ, all of NYC, Westchester, Long Island, Rockland, Orange, Putnam (?) and most of Western CT should get the game on WPIX Channel 11.
I heard the Pats are calling Benjarvis Green Ellis (Rodham Clinton Levinson Gould) “The Law Firm,” which is a pretty good moniker, but “Boston Legal” takes it a step further. Just a thought.
I hope Kris Jenkins eats one or two of those names off his jersey.
BTW, at the game Sunday (late 4th quarter), I was chatting with the chap next to me about Nick Mangold. I thought it might be interesting to hear his take on Mangold’s sister, the high school football player (Jenkinsesque).
Without a blink or even a smile, he responded, “she can bench press a 400-pound crate of pen—s … Just pen—s.”
That line made a perfect day even better.
It will be on local TV somewhere. As long as we sell out our games, I believe there is a contractual obligation to show the game on basic cable in the local market.
So around here you can catch the game even if all you have are some bunny ears. But the national audience can only see it on NFLN.
I am confident in our teams capabilities, but im afraid of the refs screwing us on a couple of plays. it always seems the refs screw us and always give favorable calls to the Pats. Fearing: late hit calls, and those cheap hand to the QB head penalties, as well as some bogus pass interference calls.
Other fear- Brett Favre with his turnovers. Supposed to be rainy, losing the ball while getting sacked, as well as the ball slipping out of his hand a couple of times for some bad throws leading to interceptions.
I fully expect dustin keller to take full advantage of NE’s slower secondary. go green.
I’ll be there! It’s gonna be wet and I’m gonna need to watch my back…but I’ll be there…
We just gotta come and play our game…I think if our defense continues to show up, we’ll have a great game. Brett needs the time to throw and if he’s able to have time that means our run-blocking is working as well…As we’ve seen the last few weeks, we need our running game.
belichick’s best coaching job ever…cmon. at this point i think an appropriate question to ask is, “why are all the pats getting hurt?” it seems like every year they have critical injuries that force people to say “belichick’s best year ever.” maybe he works his players too hard in practice? ask ted johnson how he feels about the way belichick works his players.
Cautiously optimistic, but bracing for a loss……as anyone who has followed this team since the 70’s would be.
My big fear is the short week and having to travel. Huge disadvantage to the visiting team. And since it’s a short week, Jenkins may not be able to play as many downs as usual. Whenever Pouha is in, the whole defense suffers.
This game will be won or lost in the trenches i dont want to see mike devito or piohha in there i want to see big jenk ellis and coleman in there then when we go four lineman i want pace or b thomas to come from the edges and can anyone tell me if vernon gholston is even alive it disgusts me that my buddy from the new england area tells me how great j mayo is and how gholston was picked way before him?
They say the knock on gholston is he only plays big during big games. WELL IS THIS BIG ENOUGH FOR HIM WAKE THE HELL UP SON
Play action, Play action, Play action – this is a game to attack downfield – the DBs cannot cover. Running the ball helps NE Shorten the game and plays to their strengths. We need to throw A LOT on 1st down.
Do not rush both OLBs – pick out spots with a few CB & Safety blitzes. Dare them to throw long – I would rather give up a couple of 30 yard passes than have 30 yards be gained on 7 plays that keeps
D on field forver.
I’m nervous about the coaching. Many of the commenters have suggested that NE will have trouble covering Keller (I agree). My fear is that the offense will forget about Keller. Also, Bellicheat always seems to have the perfect plan for facing the Jets.
At least the Jets aren’t favored to win.
If the Jets do win, do you think that Patriots fan commenter will show up on this blog again?
Thanks for the info about the game being televised on wpix. in case anyone has questions, attached is the link to wpix saying that they will be showing the game: http://www.wpix.com/ny_jets
is it Thursday yet?
PATS FAN WILL COME ON HERE AND SAY WELL YOU WON BUT HALF THE PATRIOTS WERE HURT AND GOD FORBID THEY BEAT THE JETS
DOES ANYONE KNOW THE STATUS OF DAVID HARRIS?
Pats Fans have already written the year off after losing Brady. Its all practice for the ‘09-’10 season.
Listen up people. If you love this team, if you’ve been a fan for more than a few weeks, then you know that what we all live and breath for is a chance to win a Championship. I’m 31 years old and have not once seen the NY Jets even get to a Super Bowl. But every year (minus a few in the early 90’s) I’m willing to believe we stand a shot of getting there, even though you could count on one hand the number of seasons we’ve actually had a great squad. Well through all the dissappointment we’ve experienced as fans there’s been a wall of pesimism and doubt each of us has built up in anticipation of the same old thing. The die-hard fans are always crushed by a loss, and here in NY and in Jersey we get pissed. Nothing wrong with that, but sometimes it can be hard to forget the feeleing. To those cinical Jets fans who’re letting those memories cloud your spirit even now, let me smack you in the back of the head and say “Wake Up!”. This is a GREAT football team! You can criticize any aspect of the organization at any given time, but don’t get caught up in it. This position we’re in right now, this is what we’ve been living for! So get your heads out of your asses and get pumped up about what the New York Jets are doing, and what they WILL DO to Bill Bellichick and the Patriots! And by the way; when they return to the Meadowlands in two weeks, be in your seats before kickoff, stay until the team leaves the field, and scream your God-Forsaken heads off until you’re throat bleeds green. J – E – T – S Jets Jets Jets!!!!!!!!!!
We need to not hand this one away, be real careful of penalties, the Pats get all kinds of just outragously ridiculous calls. We need to have balance between the running game and the playaction. Just keep doing what we do on defense and knock the hell out of cassell and co. Right now we are the better team on paper. We have to take this game personally, it’s good vs evil, years of having our face rubbed in the mud and it time for some retribution and redemption. We’ve been waiting years for the time when we had those b@stards in a spot like this. No mercy, EFF-you touchdowns, big hits,
J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!!!
It’s not like they have to travel cross country…….Short week doesn’t matter, a lot of the starters (Favre) most importantly took some time off last week……Jenkins will be fine……This is their jobs were talking about here….These guys kill for situations like this! The mood @ “The Park” this week is electric….They’re ready…..Jets 23-21…..Have fun watching…..
They need to win this game i cant deal with being swept by them AGAIN
If Feely doesn’t miss any FGs and Hodges nails all his punts well (although it’d be way better if we didn’t punt at all), there will be a big difference compared to Week 2. 19-10 could have easily been 16-13 Jets, and that was with Favre still getting used to the playbook.
I doubt they will kick to Leon because they are cowards.
We can do this and we WILL do this.
Our time is now.
GO JETS!
If not now, when?
Jets 20-Pats17
The fact that WB11 is showing the game should be an entry unto itself. This is really big for guys like me that travel on Thursday nights and expected to miss the game. Now I can tape it and keep my streak of games intact in case this is the year!
All that most maddens and torments; all that stirs up the lees of things; all truth with malice in it; all that cracks the sinews and cakes the brain; all the subtle demonisms of life and thought; all evil, to crazy Mangini, were visibly personified, and made practically assailable in Belichick. He piled upon the Patriots the sum of all the general rage and hate felt by his whole race from Adam down; and then, as if his chest had been a mortar, he burst his hot heart’s shell upon it.
That’s deep stuff my canadian friend, awesome just awesome!!!!!!!!!!
Wow people really going out on a limb with their 2pt JETS victory….. Grow some balls people.
JETS 27- Pats 13
2- “Make me Feeley good” Field goals (that was really tough to actually bring myself to type)
1- Leon “To the House” Washington quick toss
1- Favre to Jericho Catchery deep pass
1- Favre to Chris “Money Maker” Baker from inside the 15
And thats how it will play-out boys.
Based on the last time we played the Pats, what will the call be when we get inside the 5?
Run or PASS?
We CAN NOT LOOSE THE TURNOVER BATTLE!!!! we dont have to win it…if we break even this game is ours. We go drive for drive with the pats wer gunnu come out on top…we give them points and we will loose….I would love to see favre be aggressive WITHOUT being stupid….the chargers romped on those b@astards by just chucking the ball downfeild and putting ther WRs against the Pats pathetic secondary i think if we get the running game goin we can do the same
I say run the ball until proven otherwise.
Jets can break the Pats will tomorrow night if we can physically pound them and beat them up in the trenches.
We can not settle for Field Goals. The Jets have got to get seven points when they are in the red zone !
Does anyone have the latest forecast for NE tomorrow evening.
Would enjoy hearing pros/cons for both teams
This is my SuperBowl!!!!!!
showers mid 40s winds 12pmh out of ESE
Low of 45 with a 90% chance of rain. To all who are going, stay dry. Go Jets!
If field conditions permit, Clowney starts in four wide.
Coles , Cotchery, Keller and Clowney against the New England secondary, great matchups…
Luckily we won’t have to face Miller tomorrow since he was claimed by the Raiders:
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/jets/2008/11/raiders-claim-miller-off-waive.html
i have that same exact feeling! hope we’re both wrong