Analysis: Was Mangini Outcoached?
Perception is a funny thing. Fans in NY and New England are operating on assumptions about the middle of Thursday night’s game that may or may not be accurate. Let’s look at the actual drives and see if they prove out these widely popular assertions.
Assumptions:
1) Mangini went into an unusually conservative offense after getting up 24-6.
2) Belichick made adjustments from mid-second to third quarter that Mangini couldn’t answer.
Now let’s look at the drives from the 24-6 point of the game.
SECOND QUARTER
Pats @ 4:57 second quarter:
Cassel hits Watson for 12. Aiken runs free for 43 to Jets 27. Incomplete. Cassel scramble for 9. 2-yard run. Cassel sacked. Series over.
Analysis: Poor Jets’ execution allows the Aiken play which is key to the drive. Coaching: even.
Jets @ 2:33 second quarter:
TJ run for 1 yard. Incomplete. Penalty on Jets: Delay of Game. Washington runs for 7. Series Over.
Analysis: Poor execution and good def. play from Pats. Penalty hurts. Coaching: slight edge to BB for adjustments on def. Mangini can’t be criticized for not throwing on third and fourteen when he’s got an 18 point lead, there’s less than 2 minutes to go and the Pats have a rookie QB.
Hodges makes a lousy punt of 35 yards, fair caught.
Pats@ 1:44 second quarter:
11 yard pass to Gaffney on sideline. 8 yard pass to Gaffney on sideline. Cassel scrambles for 19. Incomplete. 9 yard pass to Watson. Incomplete. Cassel scrambles for first down, two yards. Incomplete. Incomplete. TD to Gaffney.
Analysis: Poor execution on Gaffney coverage. Would have held to FG but perfect throw beats them for a TD on third down. Coaching: BB finds weakness in Jets’ secondary. Hard to say whether the scheme is bad or it was poor execution.
THIRD QUARTER
Pats @ 15:00 third quarter:
2 yard pass to Moss. 9 yard pass to Gaffney. 14 yard pass to Welker. Faulk runs up the middle for 20. Incomplete. Pass to Watson who fumbles.
Analysis: Poor execution by Jets on short passes and Faulk run. Pats would have scored FG or better if no fumble. Coaching: Jets slow to adjust. Jets lucky. Pats had better scheme.
Jets@13:03 third quarter:
Faneca misses block leading to sack. TJ runs for five. Favre coverage sack by Seymour.
Analysis: Poor execution by the offensive line. Coaching: No winner or culprit.
Pats@11:17 third quarter:
Cassel sacked. 14 yard pass to Watson. Cassel scrambles for 2. 10 yard pass to Faulk. Koppen fumbles snap and Cassel recovers. 13 yard pass to Watson. Incomplete. Series Over.
Analysis: Poor execution by the Pats’ offensive line. Coaching: No winner or culprit.
Jets@8:29 third quarter:
TJ for five. 1 yard pass to Baker. Penalty – False start. 10 yard pass to LW. TJ up the middle for four. 4 yard pass to Coles. Incomplete. Series Over.
Analysis: Pats’ defense played better than Jets’ offense. Coaching: Unimaginative and not assertive enough by Jets.
Pats@5:06 third quarter:
Incomplete. 9 yard pass to Gaffney. Incomplete. Series Over.
Analysis: Jets’ defense makes good hold. Coaching: Good adjustment by Jets.
Jets@4:16 third quarter:
4 yard pass to Coles. TJ up the middle for four. Favre flushed and scrambles for one yard. Series over.
Analysis: Pats’ defense makes good hold. Coaching: No winner or culprit.
Pats@2:25 third quarter:
8 yard pass to Welker. Short pass to Welker who breaks free for 29 yards. Incomplete. Faulk runs for four. Incomplete but penalty on Jets. 14 yard pass to Gaffney. 8 yard pass to Moss. TD pass to Watson and two point conversion.
Analysis: Poor execution by Jets’ defense both on Welker yac and penalty. Coaching: Jets’ scheme no help stopping short passes. Pats, of course, forced to pass. Some culpability.
FOURTH QUARTER
Jets@15:00 fourth quarter:
Favre scrambles for one. 5 yard pass to Keller. 4 yard pass to Keller. LW runs for one. Nine yard catch by Cotchery who tries to stretch it to another first down and fumbles.
Analysis: Jets’ offense has adjusted well. Mistake by Cotchery. Coaching: Nice adjustment by Jets.
So what’s the overall analysis? I would conclude a few things. 1) There were a lot of adjustments in this span. 2) Jets’ season long weakness against short pass is still a problem. 3) Jets’ lost focus during this period and their execution suffered. 4) A great coach who was getting his ass kicked responded well to the challenge. 5) Mangini’s scheme during this period was probably too conservative.
What do you think?
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Jets have let up 2 minute drives at the end of the half against many many teams this year. Seems to be a real problem with their prevent (or 2 minute) Defense. We should have noticed this and fixed it a long time ago as it really came to bite us during this game. Hopefully the extra days off this week leads to some adjustment on this.
OMG! Our third-year head coach got schooled by a three-time Super Bowl winner and a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer, yet still managed to win the game! Oh noes ….
Andrew, although I appreciate your effort, just realize that the Jets could win the Super Bowl and there’d still be people whining about the playcalling. “Oh, they only won by a TD over Arizona. Last time they beat them by 3 TDs — they got too conservative again!”
My biggest problem was the lack of pressure on Cassel, and this was most obvious on the TD catch by Watson when we rushed 3 and cassell had forever to find someone. Of course, this is the same play where pace was defending watson and pace fell in the end zone, but there was no pressure on the QB. That is my biggest problem, dont matter who the QB is, if u give the QB 4-7 seconds to find someone, when they have 2 of the best WR’s out there, any team will be in trouble all day! I think i read a stat, that we blitzed only 5 times in the whole second half! That is just sad!
The 18 point lead was an illusion. 7 off special teams and New England had moved the ball well. Anyone who thought we had the game under control does not know football. BTW didn’t Wiess write a defense of Mangini on Friday? I don’t care. We won the game if anyone wants to fire the coach wants to go through a scheme change I don’t feel like doing again. This team isn’t as talented as we act. I guess it would be crazy to give credit to a coach of a team that is 7-3 and 3-1 in the division. If you think the Andy Rieds and Mike Nolans are better than Mangini you are missing the writing on the wall.
Good point TRUJETFAN! Do u realize we gave up 14 points in 3 minutes in the pats game, TD at the end of both halves. It is just pathetic to let teams take all these underneath passes that allows them to get 50 yards in about a minute, and then allow them to throw it a couple of times in the end zone.
I’m thrilled the Jets won the game. However, there is nothing wrong with stating that there were certainly lessons to be learned from how the game time decisions were made. I’m still happy they won. However, I hope they learned something from it and incorporate some of what they learned and make some changes the next time they are in a similar situation. As the saying goes, what doesn’t kill you, only makes you stronger.
Let’s hope we get up big on Tennessee or Denver and see how the team handles the lead.
Every time they blitzed, it seemed like the Pats picked it up and they got burned. That’s why they stopped blitzing. Pretty good adjustment there, I’d say.
Hey, you know how Mangini’s teams have so far been stellar after a bye week (well, OK, the Cincy game was a bit crap, but at least it was a win). Well, I went and checked if they have had any other “long weeks” to prepare in the Mangini era. They did…and it led to the 40-13 demolition of Miami (who was at the time running everyone else close) after the Cowboys thanksgiving debacle.
Let’s hope this pattern continues and they improve some of these weak areas during the week.
Everyone’s talking about not getting pressure on Cassel but if the Jets had blitzed, it would have played into the short game to Welker not to mention the possibility of Moss over the top.
I think the Pats o-line played a really good game. They kept pressure off Cassel from the start and kept him in rythm the entire game. With a lead, I think mangini was more concerned about giving up quick scores than he was about pressure. I would have liked to see more blitzes in crucial situations but I don’t think you can fault the play-calling. Send three and four man rushes was clearly done to help limit the underneath routes and the linebackers/safties/nickel corners were still unable to do so. That’s what was exposed and has been all year.
Bent –
I’ve been thinking the same thing, especially since it seems as though Mangini is treating this like a bye week and giving the players extra time off.
Plus, I think the Jets match up very well against the Titans. I acually like the Jets to win this week — and this is coming from someone who has pretty much predicted potential doom every week, including against the Rams.
So the great genius Belicheat should have gone for the field goal on fourth and three in the second quarter. So the great genius Belicheat should have blitzed Favre on third and fifteen in OT. So you can second guess Knute Rockne. Just win baby.
It’s hard to analyze Jets defensive series as conservative or well or badly coached without also looking at how many rushed and what the coverage was. I think many fans get too enamored with the blitz but I would have preferred a slightly more aggressive approach, even with the lead. You have to knock the champ out. It felt a little bit like they were coasting along for the decision once they got up. The D also didn’t seem at all prepared for Cassell to run, nor adjust to it particularly well. One view is that if the QB is running you’re doing a pretty good job in coverage, but if he’s running consistently for long gains, that’s not good.
On offense, just looking at the series you highlighted, there were pass attempts of 1, 10, 4, 4, 5, 4, and 9 yards through a period in which TJ was getting stopped for short gains. Is there a correlation? I would say yes. Obviously, there’s good reason to run the ball and eat clock when you have a lead but the other coach knows that’s what you are trying to do, too. I would have preferred a little more attacking the back end of the Pats D, either to increase the lead with a TD, or to at least help keep the running lanes open. I know people are terrified of interceptions but a long one deep into Pats territory is probably no worse than a punt and could be a TD.
Clearly, there’s also more risk in an aggressive approach and you could say that the strategy Mangini employed was the right one because it resulted in a win.
BB may have made some good adjustments but also has a core team that as been playing together a lot longer and is more likely to execute whatever adjustments he makes more effectively. Then again, he also made his share of bad coaching decisions.
Guess I still have to say the team with the most points at the final gun was the best coached.
I think you forgot to mention the last drive of regulation where Sutton went away from the defense that had been preventing the big play all game in favor of a prevent defense that allowed Cassel to do his best Joe Montana impersonation.
I hate Belicheat, but I have to admit that he is far and away the best coach in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE (that should make the ESPN guys happy)!
Mangini got outcoached not because Belicheat is so much better then he is, but because Mangini got conservative and didn’t go for the kill.
Mangini should have known that they would go with the quick, short passes. With the Jets pass rush, and Revis and Rhodes on coverage the deep ball isn’t in play against the Jets.
However, you still have to hit the quarterback. Giants are a perfect example. The Giants secondary is inferior to the Jets, but the Giants apply pressure on the quarterback at all times because they know that is the key to stopping the opponents passing game.
Bent-
I agree that the blitzes were getting picked up. It’s hard to say whether that’s purely execution, scheme, timing of the blitz calls or a little of each. Did the Pats know when and from where they were coming from studying tendencies? Could the Jets CS have overcome that by running less predictable blitz packages? I don’t know. NE’s tough to blitz because they kill you with Welker, Faulk and WR screens but giving the QB time makes Moss more deadly. Damned if you do, but maybe even more damned if you don’t.
Here’s the facts. Mangini and the Jets were kicking Belichick and the Patriots asses in the 1st half. They made adjustments and we responed with 2 huge 14 play drives in the 4th and OT. I hated the prevent but every coach int he league usues it (even the god known as Belichick) Were 7-3 fans. Lets try and be happy and support our coach
To me there really was only one coaching error. In the 4th quarter, late, after the Jets had scored to go ahead by a TD, the Jets D stopped the Pats. Why? The Jets went to a 4-3 (more like a 4-7) and Jenkins destroyed Logan Mankins for a sack. So, the Pats are forced to punt, the Jets don’t get a 1st down (yes, I know many will say that Favre should’ve passed on 3rd and 2, but I have no problem running the clock down there and it was possible that TJ could’ve gotten the 1st down). So, this leads us to Cassell’s last drive. Then, Mangini goes to a 3-8…that’s my criticism. Why mess with success? Does the extra DB really mean that much? I mean Jenkins was DOMINATING Mankins. It still took a perfect pass to get the tie, but one annoying feature of this team is that Mangini often times doesn’t stick with what’s working. The Pats couldn’t handle a 4-man front, just like against the Giants, and there was no way to scheme against it because the Pats couldn’t afford to keep an RB or TE in for protection. I heard Mangini’s explanation, that his defense was structured to keep the action in the middle of the field, but maybe pressuring a back up QB during a crucial drive with no timeouts might’ve been wiser.
SackDance,
That is a great observation about the 4 and 3 man d lines.
It appears as the Jets get better, they are in situations were the other team is forced to pass in order to get back into the game. The last Pats game is a perfect example. We’ll hopefully see this more in the coming months.
I agree that the Jets should go with a 4 man d line in those situations. We have more then enough guys to rotate in with Jenkins, Ellis, Mosley, Pace, B. Thomas, and Bowens. Plus, it would allow us to get Gholston on the field more. He may not be ready to play OLB, but he can rush the qb and if necessary chase down a qb if he’s out of the pocket.
Either way, the prevent defense isn’t working so we need to do something different.
The only significant weakness the Jets have shown in the last few weeks is the inability of the secondary to manage the prevent defense.
This is more likely a personnel issue than a coaching issue. The decision to cut Miller and to bring in Law seems to address this issue. How effectively, time will tell.
While Prevent D is agonizing to watch, it is high percentage football. If we felt we deserved J-Co one-hander, why aren’t the Pats entitled to Moss’ stretch catch with 1 sec remaining? Playing a great 1st half doesn’t mean the Pats can’t ramp it up in the second.
What was really most impressive were the Jets ability to perform two long drives with the score tied. Maybe Jets couldn’t stop the Pat’s in the 2nd half, but neither could the Pats stop us. That’s why we won.
Enjoy the victory. Go Jets
“OMG! Our third-year head coach got schooled by a three-time Super Bowl winner and a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer, yet still managed to win the game! Oh noes ….”
with a 2nd string QB and a 4th string RB.
Speaking of school….
First year head coach TONY SPARANO schooled the HC OF NE with the WC (WILDCAT).
SS the DC of the NYG not only took the HC and OC of NE to school during the SB, he also dropped them off at the POOL.
Now go get yourself a slice of MP (Mystic Pizza)
Ahhhh yeah!
I finally watched the end of the Pats game. For those not paying
attention, I had put in some billable hours and then gone to bed after
turning off the game after the two point play on Thursday. I was fed up with the Jets.
I have four main objections to what happened. For the record, if the
Mangini had not screwed the pooch on any one of these decisions, we
would not have needed OT and a missed assignment on Keller to win this
game:
1) I could not believe the last Jets offensive play of regulation. On
third down, the Pats had no times out left and a first down and the
game is over. Even if our coward HC wants to run the ball when a play
action fake had a great chance to ice the game, why give the strategy
away. Why pack it in with no real receiver so the Pats could pack it in?
Why not run the semi spread with TJ and Tony R in the backfield and two
WR flanked out. At least there is a threat of a pass. [Note, Bassett, if you have a way to find out, I think it is probably provable that for the most part,
when we run TJ with without Tony R, his yards per carry are much less than when there are two receivers and a FB].
2) When the Pats had to score in their next to the last possession in
regulation, not assured they would get the ball back (which as I point
out above they should not have done so easily), the Jets rushed four and
they empowered Jenkins – the Pats could do nothing and Jenkins even got a sack. Yet on the last Pats drive of regulation, they rushed three, keeping Jenkins, their best player either on the bench or rendering him ineffective
thereby making the HS QB much more effective. Two things make this
conservative defensive strategy even more inexcusable. First, is
Mangini’s inability to admit it was completely stupid, assuring Jet fans
we will be victimized by this type of playing not to lose stupidity
again. Second, this was the exact same strategy that was at least partly
responsible for the TD at the end of the third quarter. We rushed three
then too and Cassell had all day and although the Jet defender
originally stayed with Watson, he then fell down on the third move. My
biggest gripe about this CS is that their egos are so huge they are
incapable of learning from their errors. One has to admit something is
wrong to be able to change it. Most everyone does not fix what ain’t
broke. BTW, those above who characterize the choice as blitzing are sort of missing the point. In most 3-4 defenses, 4 rush. The challenge for offenses is not knowing which 4.
3) The time out on the last play in regulation was inexcusable. Why give
the Pats more time to work on the last play? Why give the HS QB any
break. The Jets had been trying to stop the Pats the play(s) before? So
we did not have to change up. I guess if Eric had finally admitted how
he had been conceding a TD with his stupid rush three strategy and used
the time out to put Jenkins back in and go to a 4 man rush, it might
have made sense. But for more of the same…Really dumb.
4) But as dumb as the time out was, it was not as dumb as not jamming
Moss at the line of scrimmage as they had been. Only Mangini is dumb
enough to make Chris Collingsworth seem intelligent. We were going to
double Moss either way. So, trying to be disruptive of whatever route he
ran couldn’t hurt. It would have given Moss a lot less opportunity to
get a clean release – and get open for the catch.
One last observation, this one no fault of our CS. We need Harris back.
Bowens is not doing the job. The last Pats TD would not have occurred if
Bowens had not whiffed on the sack. I would not bring him back next
year. This is his second year with Suttoni. He is a vet. He had his
chance and he muffed it. I would rather go with Spencer or some other young LB pickup or draft pick who with some PT at least theoretically has the potential to get better.
harlan
Harlan
You got it right on the money with the concept of the 3-4 D and the whole Jenkins on the bench deal. It makes me enraged when I watched teams go down the field while Big Kris is sitting on the bence and Pouha is on his back every play. The only time the prevent should be used is with under one minute remaining on your side of the 50 to keep things in front of you. Once the other team crosses the 50 you use the back of the end zone as the extra defender and rush 4. I you watched the Jets did the opposite. I would say the Mangini got outfoxed more by Josh McDaniels. We put up 34 points on Belichiks man boobs defense and scored whenever we needed too.
We did win the game but I can understand why people would be concerned with some of the stuff that went on. We really dont match up well against the Pats personell on offense too good either. I think the coachgin staff gets a C-.
One thing I disagree with is the Mangini wont make adjustments based on what happened. I’ve seen him make adjustments this whole year and its a good reason why we are 7-3. I’ve been killing Sutton and Schott this year and Mangini a little smack on the wrist from time to time, but Mangini is here to stay. I think that WHEN he lets Sutton go this offseason, you’ll see a big difference in the defensive play calling when he gets a hand picked guy he trusts in there
IF IT WASNT FOR 15 SECONDS AT THE END OF THE 1ST AND 2ND HALFS THE FINAL SCORE COULD’VE BEEN 31-17. MAYBE HE WAS OUTCOACHED FOR TWO PLAYS?
DiGio:
I don’t disagree that Pouha has been a serious drop-off from Jenkyard, but he wasn’t in the game during any of the comeback because he only backs up KJ in the base 3-4, so it’s inaccurate to suggest that when KJ was out of the game, he was in there (although, having just re-read your comment, perhaps that wasn’t what you were saying). He doesn’t play nose in the prevent, not as far as I can recall anyway.
Actually the deadman had a decent game by his standards, with half a sack and two devoured Sam Morrises.
Yea Im not blaming just Sione, it’s combination of the big drop off we have whether it be Mosley, Pouha, Devito etc…I guess what I was saying is in a game like that they have to just ride Big Kris out until the wheels fall off…The guys we have behind KJ are solid, tough guys but they aren’t kris, if there is anything he can do its rush the passer from the 3 techique. WIth under two minutes throw the guy out there and see if he can make a play.
I’d be careful about driving KJ into ground the because of how important he is to the D. However, I agree with SD99’s take on that particular series and maybe against the Pats in general. There is probably no team in the league better prepared to play against a 3-4 D than the Pats but they did show vulnerability against a powerful 4-man front like the Giants’. Jenkins was dominating Mankins when they lined up that way and a tradeoff between real pressure on Cassell versus the 8th best pass defender on the team dropping into coverage seems like a good exchange to me.
Try this. When your team scores a touchdown on a kickoff return, the defense has to go back out again. In other words, the opponent, though down by seven, gets some advantage back in getting more plays to run on offense. So it is natural that the Patriots’ offensive effort will improve, or can improve under the circumstances, while the Jets remain very, very pleased to have gotten the special teams score. The 24-6 lead was not illusory, but the circumstances opened the way a little for balance to be restored in the combined scoring.
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