Outsider’s Look: Tennessee Titans
Once a week, we take a look at some of Football Outsider’s statistical tools to help you get a sense of what you can expect this weekend from the Jets and their opponent.
Thought last week was a test? How about an undefeated team who has one of the league’s most punishing running games, capable passing attack and suffocating defense on their home field? Yeesh.
Titans Offense
Passing Rank – 11th
Rushing Rank – 10th
RB 10+ Yards Rank - 6th
O-Line Rush Rank – 23rd w/ 4.02 Adjusted Line Yards
O-Line Sack Rank – 2nd w/ 3.0% sack rate
Translation – The Titans offense isn’t sexy but they get the job done each and every week. More recently they’ve been doing it through the air. Up front, the line does an excellent job at protecting their quarterback, but they’re less effective when they run-block.
The success of the run game is more a factor of the Titans’ running backs than the line. With two excellent young talented backs in LenDale White and Chris Johnson, the team has one of the league’s best big play potential duos in the league.
Meanwhile, Kerry Collins is having success because his line is doing a great job of protecting him when he does throw. He’s not making many mistakes, and throwing a high number of his passes to his favorite target, Bo Scaife and his running backs. Lately, Brandon Jones and Justin Gage have been
For the Jets, they need to control the line of scrimmage on the ground which won’t be the hard part. It’s the keeping an eye on the Titans running backs and being wary of them coming out of the backfield into pass patterns that could kill this Jets team.
Titans Defense
Passing Rank – 1st
Rushing Rank – 11th
RB 10+ Yards Rank - 20th
D-Line Sack Rank – 11th w/ 6.8% sack rate
D-Line Rush Rank – 7th w/ 3.79 Adjusted Line Yards
Translation – The Titans are big … BIG up front. It’s the balance of this defense that makes it so good. This team is the league’s best against the pass. They provide decent pressure up front with their front four and drop the rest into coverage. So the secondary is helping the front four and vice versa. That’s not to say that the secondary can’t be played against … they can, but Jim Schwartz is an excellent coordinator and will give the Jets a number of looks. Schottenheimer and Favre are going to have to put together an excellent game plan to make it happen for the Jets in terms of protection up front and safe routes to run on their corners. The Titans are very strong in defending primary receivers as well as Tight Ends. Taking on running backs, especially with that big front seven seems to be a problem, so look for Leon to have a big day, and watch out to see if Keller is lined up more in an H-Back role and split out against their depleted secondary.
Cortland Finnegan is a good player, but Cotchery and Coles can take advantage of him physically if they can get him into space. A number of players have been able to use their arms against Finnegan to create space and separation while gaining yards. Look for Cotch to do the same this weekend.
As far as running the ball, the Jets need to beat the Titans to the outside early and then as the game wears on, they might be able to run the ball up the gut. Leon Washington and Thomas Jones will be keys to beating this defense.
Titans Special Teams
The Titans special teams is one area where the Jets should be able to take big advantage. The two biggest areas of weakness the Jets can attack the Titans are on punt returns and kick returns .. two of the Jets biggest special teams strengths. If the return team and Leon Washington play as they have been all season, the blockers should be able to spring Leon enough to get some good yardage for the offense … yardage that this team is going give the Jets an edge on special teams.
Filed under: Main Page, Opinion
The Titans secondary is pretty well banged up. We are comming off a nice mini break. As long as we continue to execute the same plan since Buffalo, we will win.
Nice analysis, Brian.
The edge on special teams is significant. Their coverage is very poor. I think FO ranks them 22nd and they gave up a punt return last week. We should, at the very least, get good field position.
Another factor is Chris Johnson. He’s having a rookie meltdown in recent weeks where he’s averaged just 59.5 yards per game over the last four including only eight yards against Chicago. We ought to be able to stop their running game in our base 3-4.
Even if Kerry Collins plays well, I don’t see them scoring touchdowns on big plays against our defense. I think our defense is susceptible to the nickel and dime offense, not big yardage plays (I’m not counting missed tackles leading to big gains). I can’t remember the last big play we’ve given up. It was probably in the Arizona game (if I’m wrong I’m pleading a senior moment.)
So, can Kerry Collins nickel and dime them down the field while they remain perfect on special teams and dominate our offense (even though it has performed very well against two pretty good defenses in the last two weeks)? Their wide receivers are suspect and inexperienced. Their running game has fallen off. Kerry Collins can be pressured into mistakes.
Then, there’s the want-it-more factor. The Titans have very little to play for except pride. The Jets are in a tough divisional fight and would dearly hope to have a bye in the playoffs.
Of course, they play the games because this pre-game analysis stuff takes you only so far. It’s not Madden 2009. Most commentators are picking the Titans becuase they are expecting INTs when Haynesworth pressures Favre. Maybe so. Still, if we play our game and don’t make mistakes, we have an excellent chance.
The game is going to come down to the Jets exploiting their weakened secondary. The question is how to attack it? Do we go spread right away or try to establish the run and then go with some play action?
Bassett – what’s the latest on Clowney? This would seem like a great game for him to appear.
Andrew Weiss,
I agree with a lot of what you said, except for the statement that we played 2 solid defenses the past 2 weeks… the Pats are above average and we put up 34pts. on them. However the Rams D is swiss cheese and the fact that we dropped 47 is good- they are not a pretty good defense… it’s probly the worst in the league.
That said, this week will tell us just how talented this offense (and this Jets team) really is- if we can compete in Tennessee, we can contend in the AFC…