Analysis: Who Makes the Grade?
As the Jets take the next few halting steps toward hiring a new coach, a look at history can tell us a lot about what criteria we should be using in separating the coaching wheat from the chaff, Let’s take a quick look at the Super Bowl champions’ head coaches over the game’s first 41 years for some insight into the kind of qualities we ought to be looking for.
Age (old, but not too old) – Before we hire a bright, young man, it’s worth noting that, in the history of the Super Bowl, winning coaches have been members of a small club of middle-aged men. In fact, men in their forties and fifties have dominated. The oldest coach, Weeb Ewbank, was 62 when he helmed the Jets to their only Super Bowl. Tom Coughlin was 61 when the 2007 Giants won. Coughlin got his chance, improbably, after the Giants’ ownership had refused to fold to external pressures to fire him before the season. The youngest head coach to win, Jon Gruden, who was 39 when the Bucs took it in 2002, had already been fired from a head coaching job in Oakland. Gruden was helped by inheriting a good team from Tony Dungy. The next youngest was John Madden who, despite becoming the Raiders’ head coach in 1967, won it all in 1976 at the age of 40. All the rest, were between 43 and 59.
Experience (lots, but not too much) – Eric Mangini had never been a coordinator when he was hired as the New York Jets coach before the 2006 season. Such inexperience is extremely rare in Super Bowl winning head coaches. Jon Gruden, who became a head coach at 35 just like Mangini, had been coaching since he was 27 and had been Philadelphia’s offensive coordinator for four years under Ray Rhodes. He also had run afoul of Al Davis who had hired him as a head coach three years earlier, before his run to the big game. Madden, who won at 40, had been a head coach for nine years. Other winners included veteran coordinators finally getting their chance like Tom Landry and Bill Belichick. Still others had lengthy stints in college like Brian Billick.
Previous Winners Need Not Apply – Not one Super Bowl winning head coach has ever led a team to victory in the championship game after winning a Super Bowl in their careers. Vermeil, Reeves, Shula and Parcells all made it to the big dance with another club after notching a championship, but none won it.
With the candidates that have been rumored to be on the Jets’ radar, Spagnuplo would appear to be a bit thin on experience, although he spent many years in college and nine years as an assistant under Jimmy Johnson at Philadelphia. He’s also 48 years old. On the negative side, he may have a mouthy wife. Shanahan has won it before so should be disqualified. Josh McDaniels, at 32, is way too young. Schottenheimer is too old.
So there it is, Jets’ fans. On balance, Spags should be our man, old, but not too old, somewhat experienced, a coordinator on the NFL level and he’s never won the Super Bowl as a head coach. Your move, Tannenbaum.
23 Responses to Analysis: Who Makes the Grade?
-
DSmizzle says:
Andrew:
Since Bill Parcells had previously won a Super Bowl with another franchise, I’m guessing you would not have signed him on to coach the Pats in NE or the JETS in NY?
I had thought those were good moves, even if he didn’t win the SB with NE or NYJ?
-
LeeH says:
How How How How and Why Why Why Why….I will never stop hopelessly rooting for Gang Green…But pease no Bill Callahan Please Please Please..
-
Andrew Weiss says:
I forgot about Callahan. He’d actually be a really good candidate. Twenty-eight years coaching including thirteen years in the NFL, four as a coordinator and two as a head coach. His team made the Super Bowl in 2002, but he didn’t win it. He described his team, once, as the “dumbest in the NFL.” You gotta love him for that. And, he’s 52.
-
Harlan Lachman says:
This analysis is flawed in so many ways:
1) The league is constantly changing. The skills required to win in the 1960s (c.f., Lombardi) would no longer be tolerated today. The pre cap era required coaches able to secure players coming to their team. Now they just tend to follow the money (with few exceptions).
2) This analysis is so shortsighted it fails to take into account GMs and players. A great coach cannot win without support from a good GM (getting and keeping the players he needs). And to ignore personnel is beyond belief. Shanahan seemingly could only win with Elway.
3) This analysis also looks at only one standard: SB. Even if a historical analysis based on irrelevant data made sense (which as noted in 1 above it does not), one has to consider whether all other 31 teams are wasting their time. I think not. Pat fans had a pretty good year with all the injuries. They looked like a football team and won a lot more than most teams. I for one, enjoyed the Parcells years mostly because we looked like a real football team and I expected to win most games except during the year VT went down.I think the standard has to be which coach will, in order of importance:
I. Get whatever players he is given to produce better than they ever have both individually and collectively.
II. Ensure all coaches work effectively at implementing his vision from the Coordinators to the position coaches. It is no accident that Lamont J just reported that he has never been so prepared for games.
III. Be able to identify personnel needs and communicate effectively with his GM to make sure they do not fester as we have seen at CB, S, and deep WR.My criteria may or may not result in a SB. But, it will result in more playoff runs , a team worth watching, and a team worth rooting for (something we have not had for awhile).
It also forces Ownership to really look at the entire picture and find a Coach with the right skills. Frankly, I think Eric’s problem was #II and being saddled with Favre. At worst, Favre only has one more year in him. Since the next coach likely gets two years, and because Favre may not be back, that makes it even more important to hit the trifecta.
harlan
-
mole57 says:
We should also look at the Jets history. The only coaches they have hired with previous head coaching experience in the NFL are Parcells, Kotite, Weeb (and perhaps Winner, but that’s ancient history and was nepotism). The coordinators usually don’t have what ot takes to win in New York, because the media attention won’t allow for the learning curve. So if Jets history is a guide, we need to hire a coach with previous NFL head coaching experience, and one that has a proven winning track record (unlike Kotite).
-
df says:
Wasn’t Gruden traded from the Raiders? 2 first round picks no?
-
Oh, and one other thing about Callahan. He was fired by Al Davis. That’s a pretty good mark on your resume.
-
The Ed(itor) says:
If Cowher is really not available, I think Shanahan is the next best coach available and we should move quickly to get him before Jerry Jones makes the big move. As to Spags, while I like him, if it means going back to a 4-3 I am not interested in going thru another rebuilding program.
-
You’re right, the Gruden deal was a trade but clearly Davis was disenchanted.
-
Harlan
Every analysis is going to be limited to certain criteria. I looked at Super Bowl winners because winning a championship is my goal. If yours is different, let’s hear what you come up with on the subject. Who should we hire and why? Don’t just snipe. Let’s hear some real thoughtful and incisive dissection.
-
STL says:
Andrew … what kind of research are you doing, man?
Vermeil lost his first SB with the Eagles and won his second time; Reeves never won a SB, and Shula won many SBs with his second team, the Dolphins. But at least you are right with Parcells.
Hey, 1 for 4 isn’t that bad.
-
Patrick says:
I want Spags…. he knows defense and loves to blitz. That philosophy for Gholston would be perfect. I know everyone thinks this kid is a bust. But I am an Ohio State alum and watched every game he was in. The takes plays off stamp is overblown and dont forget he torched the best tackles in college football. This includes a 3 sack effort against the Dolphins RT Jake Long. He is a beast who needs to be thrown into the wolves. Just like in college. He was a backup for another DE who got hurt in the begining of the year. He was thrown in and ended up with the most sacks in football that year and was drafted. Trust me – he learns by playing – and Spags would be perfect for that.
-
STL
Sorry. Should have said that only those guys took two different teams to the Super Bowl (I left Holmgren out). My principal point was that no one has won and then won with a different team. I believe I’m right about that.
-
sec108 says:
Enough of the retreads, no Old Schotty (which means keeping young Schotty), and anyone who wants to hand full control of this franchise to Shanahan is still delirious from the collapse.
Is he the best/most experienced coach out there after Cowher? Yes. But if you look at his track record on personell it is nothing less than abysmal, he consistently takes other teams defensive cast offs and proves why they were cast offs in the first place. And when was the last time he had a good defense? He’s been through 88 coordinators in the last 10 years and has yet to field a competent defensive squad. Is he an offensive mastermind? Sure. Is that enough to warrant handing him full control of this team right now? Absolutely not.
I realize we are a little desperate after Cowher turned us down, but do we need to salivate everytime an “experienced” coach hits the market? I don’t think so. Keep in mind he has not made the playoffs since 2005 and presided over a collapse this year in Denver that easily rivaled the jets. Are we so desperate that we are willing to overlook all that and just give full control to him? Not to mention the potential burnout factor with him being that he spent the last 14 years in Denver and is 56.
How about Rex Ryan for HC, Callahan for OC, Westhoff stays for specials (PLEASE!!) and he gets his brother Rob from Oakland to be DC? We keep our 3-4 in place and let 2 guys who actually know what they are doing with it maximize the potential. Callahan and Westoff keep continuity with the rest of the squad and we get back to being a running, ball control team that plays good defense. Works for me.
-
my pet goat says:
Your being defensive Weis. Harlan’s post wasn’t sniping. If the best you can come up with is a 4-3 coordinator, then your analysis sucks. I’d switch to the 4-3 if spags brought tuck with him, otherwise you’re setting back the clock another couple of years on what is already a veteran team. Defensively this team has the talent to be pretty good. Give me a 3-4 guy with a track record of generating pressure and turnovers. A certain surname comes to mind…
-
George S. says:
Coaches come and go but the Jets are always watching the Superbowl on TV. It takes an entire organization to win and a lot of luck. Woody Johnson just blew up his organization, and who would call the Jets lucky? It’s his team, his money (did you know that a lot of it went to McCain?), so he can do as he likes. But why do we have to suffer his shortsightedness? How about we boycott the new stadium?
-
Tay says:
I like rex ryan and I think he would be a perfect fit. He already runs the defense he’s a fire and brimstone type of guy and his brother can be the def cord and he has a proven tack record. keep callahan and maybe promote him to off cord.
-
Harvlis says:
I don’t understand the narrow-sighted view of coaching prospects. There are hundreds of “Head” coaches that could come in and do a good job yet, management focus’ only on re-treads and assistant coaches with potential.
Let’s take a look at Cleveland. They are interested in Mangini. If Mangini was not responsible for one of the ugliest collapses in Jet history, he probably could have sat down with Tannenbaum and Woody and explained what went wrong. If it was due to his coaches or to his roster — he might still be coaching the Jets. Mangini couldn’t explain the teams demise. Therefore, it was his fault. WHY would Cleveland want to hire a coach who’s performance in this league was horrible. The fact that he ran a training camp or had the position previously is no reason. You would think that these billion dollar businesses would at least watch the tapes of the Jet games.
Billion dollar organizations and they are outright LAZY.
What about all of the coaches in College. Why are they not even under consideration? You mean to tell me that, in all of Collegedom, there is not one man who knows how to manage a football team and control a game.It comes down to the ability of upper management. If they are lazy or, if they do not have the ability to do the research and find a good candidate, they take the easy way out and hire a retread or an assistant who may or may not be able to be a head coach.
What I would do is get four or five potential “Head” coaches, give them the tapes of the season, have them come back to me and tell me what they would have done differently. I would assess their answers and go with the coach who has the best plan for moving forward with the players that we have.
I would want a coach who is hungry, not one who has made his name elsewhere. I want a coach who shows some success when he has good players and when he doesn’t. I wan’t a coach who can teach his players and make them better. I want a coach who knows both sides of the ball and understands the importance of special teams.
My message to Tannenbaum – DO THE WORK!
-
sunreader says:
age is meaningless
-
SouthJerseyJetFan says:
Scouts Inc Put together Hot Coaching Prospects
I personally like Rex Ryan, Jim Schwartz or Steve Spags….Only issue is we have good 3-4 def personnel so bringing in a guy that runs the 4-3 sets our Def back again
-
BubbyBrister/shovelpass says:
Excellent post, Sec108. I never thought about Rex before, but your points were terrific. I’m just not so sure I like Callahan at OC as much as you do….
Where does Bill Callahan fit into this? I’m guessing he’s at least on Tannenbaum’s short list, even if it’s at the bottom of it.