The Effect of the Uncapped Year?
Benjamin Tulis wrote an interesting email that we think is worth sharing:
There are a few very unique aspects of Friday’s signing period that will be important to look at.
Because the Collective Bargaining Agreement is up after 2010, 2010 will be an UNCAPPED year. Additionally, because the Collective Bargaining Agreement will be negotiated for the first time in awhile, players should be heading into this free agency period thinking that the 2011 season may not happen (It will happen but the possibility has to be in the back of their head). Therefore, it is especially important to look at YEAR 2 of every contract signed. I think this will come into play with Ray Lewis. Contracts will be loaded in the second year and players likely won’t mind because they know that 2010 is uncapped so being released is not much of an issue. Therefore, I think we will see a lot of 2 year contracts that are backloaded in the second year. Since 2011 is unpredictable it should be interesting to see what contracts extend into that year (maybe in 2011 players will start getting guaranteed contracts?!).
To note, at this point, it’s presumed that the year will be uncapped, CBE deals seem to get done at the stroke of midnight time after time. Players have made it clear that if they hit an uncapped year, they’re going back to a cap. That’s got to be compelling enough for many teams …
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The CBA has safeguards in place to make sure this does not happen. The most a salary can increase from 2009 to 2010 is 30% of the 2009 salary(base salary, roster bonus money, workout bonus, LTBEs). Each year of the deal beyond 2010 it can only increase by that same amount. So you wont see a team pay Ray Lewis 1 million dollars in 2009 and then 10 million in 2010.
Jason,
That can be easily hidden with incentives that are practically guaranteed he’ll reach.
Jason,
Disregard my last post. I missed the LTBEs as being part of that.
I would say offering Ray Lewis $6 million this year and (+%30) $9 million in 2010 is still worth noting considering cap space. Lewis would then know he won’t be released in 2010 because there is little incentive for a team to release a player when they don’t have to worry about the cap for that season. This could in turn allow Lewis to accept less money than he typically would because the 2010 money would be essentially guaranteed.
B,
6 million to 9 million is a 50% increase in salary.
6 million to 7.8 million is a 30% increase.
Players have made it clear that if they hit an uncapped year, they’re going back to a cap.
I think you mean they’re NOT going back to a cap. It’s in the best interest that they keep a cap though, otherwise, it’s probably the end of small markets competing in the NFL. In baseball, you can build through the draft and collecting prospects, but in the NFL, buying players will be much more effective since there’s no minor league system to keep and groom prospects.
My bad on the numbers. Still worth noting. Also, maybe Lewis will take a 1 year deal knowing he can make a big chunk of change in 2010. Should be interesting to see how 2010 and 2011 play out.
They will definitely go back to a cap but I think they may be able to get guaranteed contracts in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. The big losers in the new CBA will be the incoming rookies. They are probably going to implement a pay scale for rookies (because the “future rookies” aren’t in the union yet they are most likely get screwed. The current players are NOT happy about the kind of money that the Jake Long’s of the world are getting eating up cap space).
No Cap = Death, see MLB, football will be history as we know it.
There will be a cap. No doubt. If I were to guess I would say the 2011 Collective Bargaining agreement will include a rookie pay scale and guaranteed contracts (to at least some extent). The NFL CBA is unique in that the year before a new CBA is agreed on, is uncapped. This has served as a “double poison” that has prevented the league and the player’s association from wanting to bargain. It has worked until now with this opt out. Should be interesting.
breaking news!!!!! COLES RELEASEd!!!!!!!!!! they jus said it on NFL LIVE
Free Agent Shopping List:
1. Bart Scott, ILB, Ravens (Yes) would be awesome, because he’s in his prime, knows Rex’s defense and fills a big hole heading into the draft.
2. Ray Lewis, ILB, Ravens (No) is too old. I don’t want to sunset our saeson by paying for a fighthard, blowhard HOF-player in his twilight years. We’ve already got cheerleaders!
3. Mike Nugent, K, Jets (Yes) or Jay Feely
4. Jim Leonhard, S, Ravens (Yes) he will fill a need and give us more flexibility heading into draft plus another Rex Ex. Still, I would love to get SS Patrick Chung (Oregon) in the draft.
5. Tony Richardson, FB, (Hell Yeah!) We need him and thankfully, we are close to a new deal.
Assuming we sign Ravens: Scott & Leonhard and Jets: Richardson & Feely, our remaining needs can be solved in draft:
1st Round with CB’s: DJ Moore or Vontae Davis
Top 2nd Round: SS Patrick Chung
Bottom 2nd Round: NG Ron Brace (Trade Up from 3rd).