With the draft rapidly approaching, David Syvertsen of our good friends at New Era Scouting took time to answer some questions for us about the 2009 Draft Class and how it applies to the Jets needs. Big thanks to David for helping out!
TheJetsBlog.com: The Jets have a lot of needs at a lot of positions … is there one position that is projecting deeper in this draft than the average?
David Syvertsen, New Era Scouting: This year’s running back class is one of, if not the best I’ve seen since I started the scouting process. Names like Knowshon Moreno, Chris Wells, Donald Brown, and LeSean McCoy are likely to be selected in the top 40 picks but there are plenty of backs behind them that will compete for majority carries early on in their careers.
Shonn Greene (Iowa), Rashad Jennings (Liberty), and Glenn Coffee (Alabama) run with the pop and physicality that is NFL ready. Remember back to the 2005 class where Marion Barber III and Brandon Jacobs were both dropped to 4th round grades because of their lack of top end speed and agility. Their effectiveness in short yardage situations got them on the field and they both soared from there. Greene, Jennings, and Coffee are those thick based backs that can make the immediate difference and eventually evolve into every down backs like the guys at the top of the class.
Beyond the running backs, positions like offensive tackle, tight end, and cornerback are all spots that the Jets could use picks on towards the middle and end of their draft to bring in players for immediate depth and long term evolvement.
TJB: Following that up, who’s a quality second round running back the Jets might get who can replace Thomas Jones?
Syvertsen: If we are strictly talking about the second round for the Jets, a few names will certainly be out of consideration. Moreno, Wells, and McCoy figure to be top 40 selections and that leaves a couple of guys that I feel would be perfect fits for the Jets straight ahead, power run game.
Donald Brown isn’t a sexy back that will break off long run after long run or knock defenders in to tomorrow, but he is a steady back that falls forward and can avoid the meat of a hit to keep himself as fresh as possible. He doesn’t appear to be big in pads, but he has some of the strongest legs in comparison to all the backs in this class and that is whatwis most important for a running back’s strength. I compare him to Tiki Barber when considering his versatility and productivity.
They are the kind of backs that go overlooked far too often when talking about the best in the business but when you look at how effective they are every down, their value is priceless.
TJB: With the Jets picking at 17 in the first round … who’s the most likely receiver that fits their need at that slot?
Syvertsen: As of right now, the only receiver that I can say I am sure will be off the board is obviously Michael Crabtree. Beyond him, the 2009 wide receiver class is full of wildcards that all have significant question marks if they are going to be taken with a first round pick.
I’ve watched some Jets tape over the past week and there is a definite need at the position. They lack speed and gamebreaking ability while they have a couple of reliable, short to intermediate route runners with good hands in Cotchery and Stuckey. But to ensure those two get their clean looks underneath and tight end Dustin Keller can work the seams, there needs to be a legit deep threat that can get separation.
Two names that I feel will fit the bill are Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin anf Maryland’s Darius Heyward-Bey. They both have top notch speed and can be a factor right away when simply considering their presence. However at the same time, they both need a lot of technique work and they will also need time to adjust to the physical style of play NFL defensive backs play with. Their dividends may not be immediate, but if their potential is reached through hard work and solid coaching, the Jets passing attack could be a dangerous one in the near future.
TJB: Will Clemson DT Dorell Scott be available to the Jets in the third round? Or will be already be gone?
Syvertsen: I don’t see Dorrell Scott as a guy that will be taken in the top three rounds. The overall physical package is there and he has always been considered a top notch worker off the field, but his tape does not match expectations. His production is sporatic despite having played with very good talent next to him along the Clemson defensive line over the past few years. If he is off the board before the Jets pick int he 3rd round, it would be a surprise to me. I personally view him as a 4th-5th round prospect.
TJB: Will DE/DT Jarron Gilbert get drafted in the first round?
Syvertsen: Gilbert has received a lot of hype throughout this entire post season, pre-draft process and rightfully so. He is an unusual athlete that will cause defensive minds to salivate at the thought of using him in a variety of ways. His production at a somewhat low level of college football was through the roof and his head is tightly screwed on straight.
With all of that said, Gilbert still does not rank ahead of the top defensive linemen in this class. The earliest I could possibly see him going would be towards the end of the first round with Tennessee at #30. It all really depends on how the draft transpires before that but for the sake of the question, I will go on record saying I believe Gilbert will not be taken in the first round, more likely towards the middle of the second.
I would use pick #17 to pick Moreno and use my second round pick on a WR.
I think the Jets should try to make sure they get Jarron Gilbert in the second round. I would hope he would be there at the 52nd pick (as that would be great value), but even if they traded up a few picks, I think it would be smart move. Rex Ryan’s defense is predicated on having athletes at all 11 positions, and GIlbert fits the bill. He would provide great depth at the DE spot in the 3-4, as his length (6’5″) gives him the necessary reach to excel there. Also his burst, as demonstrated in his gametape (and youtube video), would be perfect to put him inside on passing downs, when the defense flexes to the 4-3. I would not be surprised if by the end of the year, he was starting in front of Kenyon Coleman. He would be a cheaper version of Tyson Jackson.
i would sign torry holt first then i would trade down to the bottom of the 1st rd and grab a rb wells or brown should still be available we grab a extra pick out of the deal hopefully a 2nd rder then select gilbert with our 1st 2nd rd pick and our 2nd 2nd rd pick we select the best offensive line player available that way we keep the balance…….
recap
wr torry holt FA
2nd rd dt gilbert
2nd rd best off.line available
and we still have 4 more picks to pick up depth.
I think trading down for sufficient value will be hard, but this might be the draft to try it if we only go down 5 to 7 picks and get an extra second (or more likely get an extra second and lose a third or fourth) because a team just has to have….
Guys like Britt, Gilbert, some of the RB sound as promising, for our needs, as the other question marks that will be available to us at 17.
I suspect this is a year we are disappointed as fans because the guys who would be most immediately helpful at positions of need (i.e., Crabtree at WR, Tyson at DE, Sanchez at QB) are likely to be long gone at 17 and others such as the top TE are too much of a reach at 17 and I don’t think the Jets will pull a Buffalo and reach for a player at a position of need.
harlan
Jarron Gilbert in the 1st round for the Jets.
I like his take on RBs, I’ve been advocating taking Rashad jennings or Shonne Green in the 3rd. I like Wells and Moreno a lot but do we want to spend a 1st on them when it’s so likely that these guys will be big time pros?
Also notice how when he mentioned our good WRs he makes no mention of David Clowney? Why? Because the guy hasn’t done any dang on thing yet.
lgs
i agree with you on rb’s but greene or jennings will not make it out of the 2nd rd a lot of teams are looking for backs in that 2nd rd slot.
Great draft. I mean Beanie Wells isn’t even picked. I guess one of the top 2 RB in the draft is just not good enough for a mock draft?
Hoz,
With so many deep RB drafts there’s just not a lot of need for RB. predict that Green, if not also Jennings will be taking in the 3rd. Green was first projected higher and Jennings lower. There’s your Andre Browns, yada, yada, a lot of future start backs this year all the way down to the late rounds you can get a star.
I do like Louis, not Lois, Murphy. He is big and pretty quick.
We can’t stockpile draft picks at the experience of giving up talent for getting more, we need quality ball handlers on the offense and depth on both sides of the line, take the best WR or RB or DT in the first, then fill in the needs with other draft picks, and here is a FOOTNOTE WE cant afford to reach or find projects at any position, draft with the position in mind not players talents, this is something we need to start doing because we have wasted enough picks with hybrid type players that still have not contributed enough to call a success.
Trade back, take gilbert, take Shonn Green with one 2nd rounder and Ramses barden with the other.
This way, the offense has two runningbacks to run between the tackles(TJ, Green), our scat back superman (leon), receivers who run crisp routes and are very quick (Cotchery, Stuckey), a guy to work the middle of the field (Keller), a BIG, read: 6’6 245 lbs. big, target to body db’s and win the jump balls (Barden), and a speedster to run 40 yard dashes from the slot (Clowney).
I know, I know…Clowney has proved anything. If given the chance, I think he would have. I saw him make his only catch last year, a 20 yard post/drag against buffalo where he caught a Favre missile with one hand. Good Job David! Now park your cheeks back on the bench because to use the fastest guy on our team to stretch the field is pointless! (channeling my inner mangina) I think he will be a Nate Washington type of player, not necessarily a full-time starter, but has the ability to beat coverage and make a few game-changing plays a game.
I agree with Harlan. Unless some blue-chipper falls to us at 17, this would be a prime spot to trade down to the back end of the first round (even if it is not the sexiest option). There would a lot of great value picks later in the first round that would quite frankly be reaches at 17. For instance, if you look at our greatest early round needs (WR, QB, RB, DE, CB), there is nobody in our draft range that does not have some big question marks.
Percy Harvin–Durability concerns; transition to pro offense?; too similar to Leon?
Darrius Heyward-Bey–College Production?; route-running needs work
Hakeem Nicks–Weight/Separation speed a concern; he looks likely to be a version of Jerricho which is not bad, but didn’t we’ve been down this road before the past two years with Coles and Cotch
Josh Freeman–huge project; more of a long, long term answer and not going to be better than Kellen or Ratliff in 2009
Wells, Moreno, McCoy–None worthy of the 17th pick; better value late first round
Vontae Davis–issues with maturity; great combine numbers but didnt show amazing production in college
Now if any blue chippers unexpectedly fall like Maclin, Raji, Sanchez, or even Tyson Jackson and Malcolm Jenkins, then the Jets should pounce, but if not, it is time we stack up draft picks and get good value picks and depth. We keep on hearing how the Jets are built for now and do not have much depth, and quite frankly that is right. It was smart to make our big money signings last year and this year as it helped turn around our team and changed the culture. However, now, during the draft especially, we must take our foot off the pedal a little bit and not go for the big splash and, in doing so, mortage our depth and our future.
Tannenbaum and co. preach that their philosophy is to build through the draft, so its time that they practice what they preach. It is much easier to do that when you have more than 6 draft picks, so they should not be gun-shy in trading down.
At the 20-30 pick range, you could get much better value for the names I put up above or for guys like Alphonso Smith (huge fan of his production and playmaking ability), Kenny Britt, Ron Brace, Darius Butler, Eben Britton, Michael Oher, or maybe Robert Ayers if he is there.
I think this should be the Jets first round philosophy.
Trade down out of first, and take RB Brown and a WR in round 2. Trading out of first (unless some stud drops) gives us better cap flexibility, plus more chances to get it right.
I like Editors choice at #17 to pick Moreno and use my second round pick on a WR he is the best RB in this class, however if we can drop a couple picks and get a guarantee with Wells for an added pick or at least swap picks to get 2 second rounder’s then I would do it, yes contradicting to what I said earlier however guaranteeing a talent like Wells would be a must.
I think we should use our our second or third round pick to trade UP if we can for Maclin or Crabtree. Risky yes but we need a game changer not another solid acquisition. We already have those guys – particularly if you add in Clowney and Marcus Henry. Then we could use the remaining second or third (depending on which we trade) to get one of the solid second-tier RBs. Then with picks 4 – 7 get depth at TE, DL and OL. To me, that would be a great draft.
jvsvn I like your draft plan…but why is there no mention of MSU RB javon ringer in any mock I see
I’m no NFL scout but he would be a great pick, even had heisman talk in the beginning of the season. if we can get him in the third round i think we should jump on that
javon ringer is a leon washington type player. he would probably be a late 2nd, early 3rd.
also someone said to pick up holt. and then draft down. i think holt solves nothing for the jets. as bad as farve was last year, i blame the wide out for never getting open. we need someone who can open the field up, and this is even more important with a young QB
We should only trade up for Crabtree if he has fallen out of the top 10 or 12 (albeit unlikely). Maclin is not as sure of prospect to be trading up and mortgaging draft picks, our depth, and our future. According to ESPN.com’s NFL draft-pick value chart (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670), the Jets would most likely have to trade their 1st, 2nd, and maybe even 3rd round pick to move up in the back end of the Top 10 or 12. Also, with a prospect of Crabtree’s caliber, don’t you think the bidding price would go up a bit? Granted, Crabtree could possibly be the game changing wide receiver the Jets have lacked since Keyshawn’s heyday. But the price there would be awfully steep, and would leave the Jets with few options of replenishing their roster with youth.
For instance, in the 2007 draft, we came away with a shutdown corner in Revis and a seemingly budding star (although we should probably wait another year before deciding) in Harris. However, including Chansi Stuckey, we only have 3 people to show from that draft, and no, I don’t mean productive players, just show. Jacob Bender, the only other draftee, was cut last preseason. Three players from one draft. It is part of the reason that we needed to nosedive into free agency last offseason.
I am not saying that Crabtree would not be a perfect match for the Jets. He very well could (I think he will be close to a star at the worst). But the Jets brass better be feeling very, very confident in him.
Javon, 1st round, Brown 2nd round, Hood 3rd round.
I like Darrius Hayward-Bey in the first round. Route running concerns? So did Bob Hayes back in the day. Not saying that D H-B is gonna get a new type of zone defense created just for him, but c’mon guys!!!! – the man runs a 4 – effin’ 3!
Teach him the routes, get him into the lineup; when running a base 2 Wideout/1 TE set, use him in a rotation with Stuckey & Clowney and have these guys constantly pushing deep routes. Speed here must be respected, and I feel that H-B will demand at least two men in coverage, thus alleviating any stacking in the box.
RB in the 2nd or 3rd – that Brown kid the author mentions sounds intrigueing. Anytime I hear the name “Tiki Barber” sprout up in comparisons, I pay attention.
Linemen the rest of the way; “T”, “G”, “DE” who can rush and – if one available – another DT body that can spell KJ and be groomed to play NT-Lite. That’s six for me, and keeping an eye out for a quality Punter.
Final thoughts on Jets recievers – let’s not forget Brad Smith, nor Marcus Henry fm last year’s inactive squad. Both are tall, better than average speed… they won’t be stretching it like Santana Moss, but 18-30 yards downfield they can kill you if played right.
Here are some interesting recent mocks:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2009-mock-draft.htm?loc=interstitialskip
Jeremy Maclin could fall to us in one scenario. And in another it is a toss up between Maclin and Freeman (Freeman being picked one before Maclin).
Does anyone really want Freeman over Maclin if it came to that? I sure want Maclin almost wherever he is.
Dwight, I totally agree with your analysis. My point was not that we should leverage the farm to move up. But if Crabtree, in particular, or Maclin slips and we have the chance to move up at an affordable price, then it might be worth the risk. The problem is that we are talking about WRs. Other that QB, it’s the position with the biggest 1st round bust potential. I’m not a talent evaluator. But if this scenario unfolded and Tanny decided that one or both of these guys were worth the stretch, I think that would be a totally reasonable draft strategy for the Jets to have given the teams needs.
If a QB like Sanchez or freeman is available then the jets can entertain trade offers and if the can pick up an extra 2nd they’d be fools not to do so. If they stay put at 17 hopefully Maclin falls to them or Tyrese Jackson from LSU.
we know MikeT likes to move around on trade day, if Maclin or Sanchez falls past 12 I can definitely see a trade up
Miscellaneous Corrections:
1) The last game changing WR the Jets had was Wesley Walker. Blink and he was by you for a TD. Keyshon was a possession WR. Nothing more. Crabtree looks like he might be one. Maclin looks like a Reggie Bush/Leon type player. If we plan to keep Leon…
2) I hope Ryan does not forget Brad Smith. It would be great to cut him. He is never going to be a bona fide WR. I don’t want to waste snaps on gimmick offense. I doubt Marcus Henry and his lack of speed will amount to anything either. WR is clearly a position of weakness.
3) I wonder at the low opinions folks have of college coaches. They have more leverage over their players (scholarship and access to big pro contracts or reps as trouble makers; more time to work with them since most are unimpeded by classes). DHB has not learned route running in college. I doubt his coaches were morons. OTOH, it does raise questions for me as for his abilities and whether or not he lacks the essentials.
h
it this were my world.. it would either be hay bay or if not then a DE with the 17th, then a running back in the second or a TE.
tyson jackson rick, tyson jackson
the bengals have been interested in reaching for OT michael orher at pick 6 according to espn…if the jets traded up to the 6 spot and gave away a 3rd and 5th rd pick for it then we could get crabtree
that is because we wouild trade up becase hes on the board
that could be yet another possibitly
boom or bust situation
sit back and let the picks come to you or go out and get fewer guys that you want for ur football team
Много ненужного на мой взгляд, но в вобще мне кажется так и есть.
I agree with what joyboawnnab just said.
Last year’s running back crop put together fantastic speed scores that indicated there were multiple first round talents. This year’s crop has put together one of the worst sets of numbers in recent memory (speed score is tallied by looking at their 40 speed to weight ratio). They don’t come close to last year’s class in terms of talent, and there probably isn’t a back who deserves to go in the first round. (Which is not to say that no back will.)
i could definitely see this years RB crop end up like last years WRs did.
Ммм, где ещё можно такие творения найти?
Какой то левый антиспам фильтр
I like Kenny Britt in the first round but not at 17. Trade down 10-12 slots, pick up another 2 rounder. That gives you a shot at a big, tall fast receiver, a RB and a DE with 3 of the first 60 or so choices. Trading up makes no sense to me. Neither does drafting DHB at 17. If you want to trade down for him, fine. But, he’s a boom or bust guy and you don’t take one of those at 17. 37, OK. He’s a track guy looking to play football, not a football player.
Dwight – your post is probably the best I have read this year on TJB re: draft. I agree with almost everything you have said. I might be tempted by Moreno as well at 17, but could see waiting til later with the depth of this year’s class; perhaps Oher in addition to the others you mentioned as well. I am also intrigued by J Gilbert in late 1 or 2nd. I would also consider going up to 10-16 to get Sanchez or Stafford if the FO gets some conviction. Punchline – unless we get a little lucky with a QB falling that the FO has conviction in, I would sit tight and let draft come to us this year. If no elite prospect is sitting there at 17, trade down 5-12 picks and pick up an extra 3rd rounder (maybe a 2 if we swap some other picks).
Trevor – going from 17 to 6 would require our #1,2 and 3+ picks (or maybe a 1, 2 plus next years 1) per trade chart. Way too much unless it was the #1 guy on the board, IMO.