KC Joyner provided another scientific analysis on the NY Times, this time of the Jets’ big man in the middle. He studied Kris Jenkins’ efficiency throughout the season, and if his injury impacted his play down the stretch. Make sure to check out the link, too. Joyner follows up on his offensive line article from Friday.
Jenkins was quite deservedly named to the Pro Bowl last year and was a dominant run stuffer for most of the season, but his play did fall off because of a herniated disk in his back.
His metrics offer an interesting view of how the injury affected the Jets’ run D. From Weeks 1-12 (i.e. through the big win at Tennessee), Jenkins faced 62 POA runs in 11 games. He gave up just 153 yards on those plays (2.5 YPA) and won 25.8% of his POA blocks. Those are all tremendous totals for a nose tackle.
Now look at his metrics from Weeks 13-17. Jenkins faced 53 POA run attempts, gave up 189 yards (3.6 YPA) and won 17.0% of those blocks. The YPA and POA success rate aren’t as good as before but they are still solid, so that isn’t the news here.
The notable item is that opposing teams were a lot more willing to try running at Jenkins. He faced an average of 5.6 POA runs in the Jets’ first 11 games and then saw over 10 POA runs per game down the stretch. That wasn’t an anomaly of a couple of games throwing off the total, either, as the minimum number of POA runs he faced in a single game in Weeks 13-17 was nine.
What this says is that the Jenkins injury didn’t hurt the Jets because his play fell off, as his metrics show that he was still a solid NT. The impact it did have was that teams were now willing to run inside much more often. That meant the Jet defense could no longer overplay the edges of the running game, and that limited the unit’s overall effectiveness.
Am I alone in being concerned about Jenkins’ injury? I have two herniated disks that cause me plenty of pain and discomfort, and I’m not a 360-pound NFL player. I can’t begin to imagine what Jenks is going through.
On the football end of this, I like what Joyner is compiling with the stats. But I can’t shake the notion that the drop in productivity was directly related to uninspired coaching and gameplanning. If a new trend was forming and plays were coming directly inside more often, what does that say about Mangini’s inability to adjust?
It makes me even more excited about Ryan and his commitment to creating a devastating defense.
But Jenkins is going to need someone who can spell him and make the transition as seamless as possible. Howard Green was signed to provide that complement, and hopefully he can do it well. Because as we learned often last year, Sione Pouha does not fill the void. When Jenkins was out, the defense felt it.
I read this article yesterday. It talks about our OLs end of season decline and Schotty’s love of screens too.
I see Angel’s point about the inability to adjust the game plan with Jenks hurt, but I still think it says something about our D ends too. We need to address it in the draft.
Jenkins injury should scare us all. We knew he had back issues (At that size how can you not?) before he came to us and unless we find some depth at NT or Ryan finds a scheme to keep him as rested and comfortable as he needs to be for December and January we are going to have an issue.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see us go for d-line in the first round if good value is there. We’ve got our three starters, but two of them have a lot of tread on their tires, and Jenkins has pretty high injury risk. Considering how important d-line is to Rex’s defense, why not bolster the group before it becomes a big problem area?
Etiher injury or just flat out spend…..as soon as Big Jenks wasnt himself we suffered big time.
His first 10 games or so were so dominant.
Interesting read. Coleman, while a big body and a contributor to the run defense, really shouldn’t be a starter in this league. Ellis slumped towards the end of the season in terms of sacks which is undoubtedly attributed to his age. Bolstering the ends and providing NT depth for Jenkins will go a long way in allowing our team to remain dominant in the front seven through all 16 games. I imagine Ryan and Pettine will also experiment with 4-3 packages and the like to mix things up- this will help to keep the DTs and NT fresh.
A side note, I disagree that Jenkins production fell of because of uninspiring coaching- Jenkins was a huge fan of Mangini and vice-versa. Poor adjustments and game planning? I can believe that.
I agree with pound4pound- the Jets might have a receiver and/or QB on the roster already- we KNOW what an impact a great D-lineman can have so if they have a shot at drafting somebody at #17, I hope they do it.
Angel, this is fairly obvious so I’m surprised it wasn’t mentioned in your analysis…
The jets were losing most of those games (weeks 13-17). In fact, the only game they won was Buffalo, barely.
It’s a simple matter of when teams are ahead they are more likely to run a low-risk up the gut running play than when they are playing from behind. That is what accounted for teams doubling the amount of attempts, not Jenkins’ back injury.
Furthermore, Jenkins #’s in those games were still pretty good according to the stats above, so I wouldn’t be too worried about the injury. It’s football, guys get banged up at the end of the season. As long as Ryan keeps him fresher than Mangini did, he’ll be fine. He’ll be better than fine, he’ll be dominant.
As for the run D falling off a bit at the end of the season, I’d chalk it up to two things. 1 – The D’s inability to get off the field (allowing 1st downs and drives to continue) which caused fatigue. 2 – The coaching staffs inability to make in game adjustments, which was a signature of the Mangini years.
Who is Huey Whittaker WR? He is on the roster listed on the side of the page?
Fodder for training camp
is it me or does Jenkins always look hungry too you?
Random and unrelated but yahoo ran an article on how handling Qbs and I think it’s very relevant to the Mark Sanchez experience question:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AkNvWPjkOP9OV.L4uvTIVHpDubYF?slug=ys-forbesqbflops032909&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
He should play close to 100% every week now, since the new scheme doesn’t overwork its bset players. That former overused “3-4 50″ scheme was like making the from seven play ISO every down. Patriots and Dolphins were more creative/imaginative.
I agree with Le’Sean. I’m in the process of re-watching the 2007 season and the 2nd game was Baltimore. They might run a 3/4 as the base defense but you couldn’t tell it by watching how they lined up with 4, 5, 6 guys on the line, some time with a 7/2/2. They almost never rushed only 3 and you could never tell who was coming and who was dropping back. Btw, Ray Lewis played a very good game, our guy Scott was OK, had a big sack but Ray played well.
All that to say Rex’s Jets won’t leave Jenkins alone on an island to hold of the entire offensive line.
This article proves that we need Jarron Gilbert. In order to control the running game of the opposition we need enough beef on the line to force them to run outside. The quicker the holes are covered the quicker the linebackers can rush in and push back the opposition for a loss of yards. Gilbert can take two men while Jenkins can try to disrupt their rhythm on the running game.
I’d take a d-lineman in the first unless Maclin is available
JAGG – 96′s scouting report is accurate, but he is an interesting guy who played Arena Football last year and is 6’5″. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up on the practice squad and in 12 months time we’ll all be talking about Huey Whittaker as the next big thing.
I would be surprised if he ever actually *becomes* the next big thing though!
Let’s not have too high a hope for Mr. Wittaker.. He was an unsigned rookie free agent in 04 with Pittsburgh, who released him. He was with the Bucs and Jags in 05, and has been playing Arena League since…
I’ll root for anyone in Green & White, but i doubt he’ll make the team out of training camp.
I think if we got a real pass rushing DE we will be fine and big jynx will be a STUD. Hopefully if rex turns gholston into terrel suggs like he should be (potential to be better) then our D will be elite.
ALso i agree with jesus revis. I think maclin is the playmaker we need. How about trade up with Buff to snag him? buffalo will be looking to trade down then take there TE of choice along with a 3rd or 4th rounder that wed have to give them
RK – if Maclin begins to slip I am fully confident that Tannenbaum will make the necessary calls about trading up. Aside from Maclin (and crabtree obviously), I am not blown away by any of the receivers in the draft. Although I like DHB, Britt and Nicks, I dont think any of them are worthy of our first round pick. If Maclin isnt available, I would go Tyson Jackson, Chris Wells, Knowshown Moreno, or trade back
Thanks Bent and Jetobsessed. I figured he was fodder, but it’s the off season and I love fodder. Was very bothered I didn’t know who he was.
Jarron Gilbert in the 1st round will be the final piece to a devastating Defense. Too much for one man to cover
Everyone seems to love Gilbert, and I personally think he is a gret prospect. However, it just seems that 17 is way too high to draft him.
Jarron Gilbert is a fringe 1st round prospect but he looks like a very early 2nd rounder. From the looks of things I think the Lions might nab him. Since they have 2-1st rounders and the 1st pick in the 2nd round
He is a man-beast though
Uh, Mikey Knows? In the words of Herm, “HELLO?” We were only losing ONE of those last five games the whole way through (against Denver). The rest were back-and-forth games where neither team had any reason to be conservative or try to eat up clock.
Jeff, he is sky rocketing up draft boards, but the fact still remains that he normally would be a second round pick. All the hype combined with the fact that so many teams are switching to the 3-4 is the reason why he may be a first round pick.
True about fodder. you never know. Colston wasnt much better than fodder…
if nuttin happens with cutler and we keep our picks i can see us trading up, maybe with the eagles for one of their picks, to grab gilbert…
Is Gilbert really worth moving from the 17th pick?
Oh my God, I can’t stop laughing. Is this site flooded with Jarron Gilbert’s relatives or do you all just parrot what two or three people say? JARRON GILBERT WOULD BE A HUGE REACH AT 17, AND PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT TRADING UP FOR HIM? ROTFLMAO.
Have you lost your minds?
Gilbert is a major reach at 17, but i have no problem taking him in the late 20′s or early 30′s if we do some trading. I like Gilbert better than tyson jackson as the preferred replacement for Ellis. Tyson Jackson will be the perfect replacement for Kenyon Coleman, but unfortunately he looks locked up by us for a few more years- so coleman haters- we need to try to deal him or rework his salary because he is supposed to make about 5mil/yr for the next three years; i dont see cutting him, taking his cap hit as something the organization will do. I also havent heard anything on anyone from the jets observing tyson jackson. If Rex liked what he saw out of Gilbert, think they will make it a priority to draft him.
What do people love so much about Maclin? From watching some highlights all i saw was him cathcing quick passes and running with them. Didnt really see the “downfeild threat” thats going to stretch the defense/ out jump corners. am i missing something?
Um..Freddy, the fact that he caught those 5 yard passes and ran 80 yards past everyone else is the exact reason he is a ‘downfield threat’. He can outrun entire defenses and goes from standing to full speed in one step.
Forget about having a first round pick, Denver is going to get it from us (Cutler), and maybe the 2nd as well.
Denver just said they are open to trade Cutler…
L.J couldnt handle the disk problem with the Knicks and at Jenkins age i dont know what to think. I got the injury in a car accident and couldnt do anything for more than a few min. hold my son,play basketball etc…
yeh im talking more about the threat to catch a bomb down the sideline. But i hear what your saying just i feel like those players just dont seem to succeed in the NFL. Reggie Bush was that type of player. We already have that in Leon. Plus if DHB is just as fast plus taller we might aswell take him.