With the upcoming draft just two weeks away, GM Mike Tannenbaum is going to come under increasing scrutiny from fans and media alike. Everyone has an opinion on what they should do with their first pick – “Get a guy at a position of need!”, “Take the best player available!”, “Trade it for a veteran!”, “Trade up and get a blue chipper!”, “Trade down and accumulate more picks!”, “Reach for a guy you like to make sure you get him!”, “Go for the safe option!”, “Look for someone with upside!”. Everyone has an opinion, but Tannenbaum has to make a decision.
Picking 17th is arguably harder than picking in the top six (where everyone analyses everything so much, that a consensus has usually already been reached about who would be good value at that spot, so you can pick a guy without too much second guessing) or late in the first round (where there are only likely to be a few players remaining from your wishlist to choose from) as the Jets did last year. Now, this time without Eric Mangini’s input, Tannenbaum will find himself in a position to choose from a wide selection of options that could be considered good value at 17…not to mention weighing up trade options at the same time.
So where does Wile E. Coyote factor into all of this?
The answer is that he represents and symbolizes constant pursuit of a goal despite persistant failure. Wile E. Coyote had one goal – and tried absolutely everything to attain it. Catapults, traps, painting fake holes in a wall, dropping rocks and so on. For the last forty years, the Jets have also been unable to achieve their ultimate goal and they have seemingly tried everything too – especially in recent years. Signing a big money quarterback, getting a young coach, using a high pick to take a workout warrior, trading picks for players and so on.
Now, other teams have tried those things and enjoyed great success with them. The Bucs won a Superbowl with a young coach for example. The Pats went undefeated when they traded a pick for a wide receiver. When the Jets swung a trade for Doug Jolley, got Brett Favre or hired Mangini, it always ended up the same way, with the season plummeting down a proverbial chasm with a thump.
Where the Jets can learn a lesson from Wile E. Coyote, is that in his efforts to catch the Road Runner, he hardly ever tried the same thing twice. Once bitten, twice shy. The genius of these cartoons were that they usually made you sympaphize with the bad guy, almost to the point that you would end up rooting for him to be successful, rather than to continue to fail. So it would be especially frustrating when a near flawless idea would fail because the ACME product malfuctioned or the Coyote made an error in setting it up, but the Coyote would revert to an inferior plan rather than having another go. “Just do the same thing again and sit further away from the boulder so it doesn’t crush you this time!”
The fact that other teams can enjoy success with a similar approach proves that it wasn’t the idea that was faulty, just the execution. If it didn’t work because you made a mistake, you learn from it – for example next time the Jets (and Mangini) draft an athletic pass rusher like Gholston they should use him in a situational role while he finds his comfort zone or make a better selection next time, not avoid picking an athletic player ever again just because Gholston wasn’t a success as a rookie. If it didn’t work because of faulty merchandise, you make every effort to ensure that next time it isn’t – for example, the Jets shouldn’t rule out ever signing a big name veteran QB again just because Brett Favre broke down at the end of the year. You always get another chance – the NFL gives you a higher draft pick if you fail, just as I’m sure ACME Corp. gives store credit for their warranty failures.
In the draft some teams have an advantage over others because they have more/better picks, but each team’s ultimate goal is the same: to improve your team more than any of the other teams in the league (especially your rivals). That’s Tannenbaum’s challenge and he needs to consider every possibility and not rule out anything that has failed to pay off in the past.
There were plenty of reasons not to get Jay Cutler, but “we tried getting a big name QB with Favre and it was a disaster” was not a viable one. Just because McCareins was a waste of a 2nd round pick, that doesn’t mean Miles Austin would be. Similarly, Blair Thomas, Lam Jones and Browning Nagle shouldn’t prevent the Jets from drafting a skill position player, Johnny Mitchell and Kyle Brady shouldn’t dissaude them from taking a TE with their first pick if they think he’ll help them the most and Mike Haight shouldn’t prevent them from reaching for a player that the scouts really like at a position of need. Frankly, if you don’t trust your scouts then you might as well just take Kiper’s “Best Available” with every pick and then go home.
So, what’s my point? Stick to the plan and learn from your mistakes and if you do something that goes wrong, do it right the next time…don’t just do something else and get that wrong too.
Good luck, Mike.
Meep-Meep!
Scratch Byron Leftwich off the list of potential veteran QB’s the Jets might bring in…he just signed a two year deal with Tampa…I was hoping he would end up on our roster :(
Yeah Bozzie I saw that too- I wanted him too but he probably wanted to go somewhere where he would be guarenteed the starting job
Leftwich has not proven he can be a quality NFL starter. Ratlff and Clemens both have much more potential. I hope he doesn’t make me eat my words with the Bucs though. This move means Freeman could drop into the 2nd round. I wouldn’t mind seeing the Jets move up in the 2nd, or trade down in the 1st and use one of their extra pics on him. I wouldn’t use #17 on him, but as a 2nd rounder, he is definitely worth taking a chance on.
Excellent post, enjoyed the read. I think everything needs to be judged on there individual basis. People say don’t draft Heyward-Bey because he is raw in his route running, why do we have coaches……they coach out the rawness of prospects. We are on our way to the goal, and we are on the 20 yard line, a good draft and we could find ourselves racing for the end zone.
Bent,
kudos on a great analysis. I too believe that a lot of the Jets failures have come from having the right intention but also having terrible execution and reactionary thinking. In keeping with the theme of individual cases, it should be understood that Mile Austin is a RFA as to where Justin McCareins was a direct trade, albeit a bad one in hindsight. And as to where Brett the jet was a hall of famer, Cutler has not taken off as a Qb yet. I would also add, that throughout the years, we’ve always had above average to great defenses but never had an offense that cold keep said defense off the field and despite any other pattern, that is the one that has made all the difference so we should be aware of that dynamic within the rhetoric of personnel decisions.
Brady Quinn is apparently on the trading block and Cleveland has at least one first round pick offered from him. I’m not a Quinn cheerleader, but it’s at least something else to consider with the 17th overall. (It would beat the hell out of Josh Freeman.)
Good points Bent. Only one team is going to win the big dance every year, and there is more than just making the right moves that goes into it. Mr. T has put together one of the best rosters I have seen the Jets boast, albeit I am still a young fan. I think the fans are blessed with having an owner willing to spend as well. This franchise is on its way up, it just has that feel to it.
On a separate note, I would hardly call the Favre trade a failure. The emotional roller coaster that this season brought was a blast. Without Favre it would have been undoubtedly much more boring, so from my perspective as a fan it wasn’t a failure. I understand some will disagree. From a business perspective it was a HUGE success. It put the team in the spotlight, managing to steal the spotlight away from the Super Bowl winning New York Football Giants.
Perhaps, Marc, but I could still imagine Tannenbaum being wary of making a similar move since the team still failed to make the playoffs. Moreover, I have heard fans express these views and I am talking as much about fans’ expectations of what the Jets might do as I am about Tannenbaum and Co’s plans.
Seanmac31 – Didn’t Mangini say it was an open competition between Anderson and Quinn just a few days ago or was I just getting flashbacks? Although I’ve never been a Quinn fan, at least you’d be finding out right off the bat whether or not he can cut the mustard rather than developing a guy only to have to replace them with the next big thing a few years down the line if they don’t pan out.
Draft day might be a bit dull though if the Jets pick up Quinn and Austin and have no first day picks!
they dont want quinn……i dont want him …the only way we get a QB is either Stafford or Sanchez, maybe freeman all going to be projects…nobodys coming in here for draft picks unless proven….i would rather have anderson
Mr. T is no Wile. e. It takes time to build a champion one piece at a time. Wile e. was looking for that one chance to kill his foe. In football the approach should be to add talent through the draft and FA. Build on that talent until you have filled all the chinks in your armor. This isn’t a one shot deal. Catching the Roadrunner is so different from winning the superbowl because the superbowl is the ultimate acheivment of endurance, stradgey and strength. There is no easy button on Mr. T’s desk, he’s got to stick to the mission of taking out all the chinks in his armor. And even once that has happened (see the Chargers) there are no sure bets. I see Mr. T as a mad scientist type but not as a bumbling idiot who can’t shoot straight. I sense no fear, we are addressing our chinks and impatient fans and a snarky media may have to wait. I will say this, build from the inside out, secure the lines and add another quality TE because this will allow lanes to run and time to throw. As far as Gholston, he came in late, had a questionable motor to begin with and didn’t get the constent prodding we knew it would require because the coaches were feeling the heat. Rex will have him through OTA’s, mini camps and TC, he’ll get that motor out of neutral.
Nothing can be worse than the Mike Hickey days. He was always trying to prove how smart he was by picking a player everyone else had slotted for the 2nd/3rd round high in round 1. It was no accident that the Jets were consistently picking in 1st half of draft under Hickey. sorry for the trip down memory lane, but every year at draft time, I get flashbacks to Roger Vick, Lam Jones, Ron Faurot, Ken O’Biren (not Dan Marino), Russell Carter, Mike Haight…..urghhh!
Quinn and Austin would be an awful first day. Just read an article that Giants have 10 picks, and likley only have roster spots for 5. Maybe we can relieve them of some of their “burden”? We’ll roll it into the new stadium agreement ;-)
The Giants have two 2s, including #60. Our 17=their 29 + 60 almost exactly, according to the draft value chart. If they were willing, I’d do that deal in a heart beat. I’d then be looking for Britt/Robiskie at 29 and Greene/Jennings at 60. Add Miles Austin and we’re good to go. I’m looking for a blocking TE somewhere around the 6th round. 3 & 4 could be for Line depth.
I tjink Jackson is the way to go. I don’t like trading away 2nd rd picks but if they feel they want to draft a WR in the 2nd tr and Austin is their best option i have no problem with that. At 6’3″ he caget downfield with his speed. Heard some Cowboy fans talk about him and they don’t want to lose him. He just might be the answer to start opposite J-Co. We will see by 4/17 what happens.This way the Cowboys have up to the day before the draft to match and i think if the Jets do sign him they will make it very difficult for the Cowboys to match.
I like Brady quinn but the guy is not a JET. Why is Quinn a better option than Freemon? because Freemon doesnt talk the big talk like Stafford or Sanchez.
There is little or no chance Jackson will last to 17 and we haven’t got enough choices this year to waste them traking up for one palyer.
Bent, I must disagree with the top 6 being easier. They get paid more , so the pressure is there to perform early. Also, we got Gholston there at 6 and if we had been smart we have gotten Mayo instead. There were many concerns about his motor and heart and sadly the naysayers, myself included, have so far been right about him being a bust.
But he has more potential than Ainge……er thats not saying much. We must get TJ in the fold by the draft or get a RB in the 1st rd and send Jones packing for a 2nd.
jones wont get traded are you nuts.. im not sayin id totally disapprove of it but he was leading AFC rusher last year, should get more outta him next few years and he’ll slowly be phased out to make room for leon, maybe another RB we draft but def not 1st rd this year, n watch out for danny woodhead he was injured last year but ppl like him in florham park and he has some impressive college credentials.
James in TN. Obviously Mayo had a better year than VG but its to early to tell if he were the better pick. Mayo had the benefit of a coach that knew how to use him, let’s see what happens this year with VG and a new coaching staff.
Bent. Here’s how I measure Mr. T at this time. When he took over the team he decided to build the team from the core of the offensive and defensive lines (#’s, 66, 67, and 77 to go with 60 and 74). Then he focused on LB (97 & 52) and running backs (20, 49 to go with 29). None of these guys are quick fixes but are upgrades from where we were.
The Favre move could be seen as a hail Mary but look at what Chad did in 2007 and it looked like he was going to start in 2008. I recently watched the 1st 7 games of 2007 where the Jets went 1-6, we were winning or in almost every game. Chad threw huge interceptions in every game and couldn’t close the deal. I hated the Favre move but you can’t blame Tanny for taking a shot.
This year we have Rex/Pettine, I think the scheme will make many of our existing players look better than they could under Mangini and we fixed our CB/Safety situation (speaking of ’07, #21 and 36 wow what a horrible season). I may still delusional that we are building a team and not just filling holes, but we’ll have to see.
Rich – TJ will not be gradually phased out. He will be cut before the 2010 season. He will be 32 and due a $3MM roster bonus. In the NFL that means goodbye.
I agree Doug.
I was supportive of both Tanny and Mangini, but Mangini had his time. I think a lot of us on the blog thought it would be 3 years to prove himself and this last year was the hammer to the nail in his coffin. I wouldn’t have minded another year perhaps…but it’s irrelevant.
Tannenbaum is a really good GM and I think respected around the league. He may put a poison pill , I think that was mentioned on ESPN, into the contract for Austin Miles that will give him an out next year and thus since he won’t be able to be signed long term the Cowboys may not want/be able to sign him; that also includes a salary cap hit with a big signing bonus. I am skeptical of him however. I do think that 2nd is kinda high and would rather use the 1st pick on Maclin if he’s there or DHB, whom I’ve warmed up to knowing full well that he is bust potential and if you get him wrong it was a waste of a pick. I think the 2nd would be any number of RBs or Jaron Gilbert, or some other worthy pick. Watching Miles get away with a pass interference and score, plus not seeing his great play making ability yet, and with the Jets not having Romo slinging the ball to him, it might be better to not get him. But if things just happen where the 2nd wins him at least he is seasoned as a WR and has stats that look promising.
I think about TJ that Tanny will try to figure out a way to get him some more money for being a good soldier. He is. Really. Imagine Barlow back there again. And TJ is a leader too. If T Rich can do it why can’t TJ? Plus I’m sure that many of the guys want him to be here really badly. It would be a blow to this team to not have TJ here. Even for another year.
Actually, I expect Tanny to make a move this year like every year and blow people’s minds…based on history.
“He will be 32 and due a $3MM roster bonus. In the NFL that means goodbye.”
Not in an uncapped year, it doesn’t…
It was Dave Hutchinson that reported the poison pill.
http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2009/04/will_the_new_york_jets_insert.html