The Meaning of Miles Austin
Rich Cimini charges back into the fold from vacation and starts talking about the Jets and some of the circumstantial evidence from the past week.
The Jets’ pursuit of Cowboys WR Miles Austin … tells me two things: The organization isn’t convinced that Brad Smith, Chansi Stuckey or David Clowney can be a front-line receiver. It also tells me the organization doesn’t like the wide-receiver value with the 17th overall pick. … Personally, I think surrendering a second-round pick for Austin would be a huge gamble, bordering on a gross miscalculation, but the Jets want a receiver and they evidently don’t like what they see in the draft.
In case you’re wondering, that second-round pick, packaged with the 17th pick, could get the Jets as high as 10th in the first round … At the risk of sounding like a radio call-in geek, I’m going to propose a trade: The Jets send their second-round pick (No. 52) and WR Brad Smith to the Browns for WR Braylon Edwards. Think about it: The Browns took a No. 2 and a No. 5 from the Bucs for TE Kellen Winslow. Smith is a former No. 4, so there’s comparable value. Plus, Eric Mangini loves the guy.
I agree with some of what Cimini says, but not all. It is hard to imagine Stuckey and Clowney as three down guys right now, so I do think that the team is really looking to increase their competitiveness here, especially if they are going with a young QB.
I do think that the team is trying to assess the value of their second rounder, and what else it could get them on the market right now. Austin is the best of what’s left via free agency in their opinion, and they are looking to verify just how good he really is.
I do agree that the Jets don’t like their options at their slotting when it comes to receiver, and bringing in Miles Austin is a slam on Brad Smith more than anyone else on this team. Jeremy Maclin was someone who I would have been excited about seeing become a Jet, but he’s likely valued above where the Jets pick, and beyond him and Crabtree, even though there is some solid depth at receiver, I don’t think there’s one prospect that embodies everything that the fans and team seem to want in a receiver next season.
As far as Edwards, it seems like Land of Make Believe to trade Brad Smith and a two for Braylon Edwards, a former top ten pick. No matter how Kellen Winslow was valued. Edwards is at least a
The key point in Cimini’s article is that it is a HUGE gamble to give up our second rounder for Miles Austin. When you consider how highly valued draft picks are these days, it is–just as Cimini puts it–a borderline gross miscalculation.
Nothing against Austin but I think u could probably get a better WR for our #2 pick….#2 picks are highly coveted in these financial times and I gotta believe Tanny knows that better than anyone…Man I can’t wait fir this draft to begin !!!
Cimini’s trade may be a little optomistic, but it puts into perspective – would you rather trade a #2 for Miles Austin, or Braylon Edwards? Just the thought shows how silly signing Austin would be when the comensation is a #2.
Supposedly, the Browns have already received an offer of a first-round pick for Edwards, but they want a first and a third. No way he’s traded for a second-rounder.
Trade number 17 for Ocho Cinco or Boldin! That is a number one receiver, not Miles Austin. Miles Austin has as much upside as heyward Bey or Britt. That’s it… He is no Crabtree either.
it seems plausible to trade the 17th and 52nd (1330 on the old chart, probably more now) for the 4th (1700 on the old chart, probalby less now). I would rather take a shot at Crabtree and give up the 2nd rounder. I always like experianced players over potential, but guys like this don’t come around every year.
I would trade the #17 pick and Brad Smith for Braylon Edwards. He would give them a legitimate #1 receiver. He is also younger than Ochocinco and Boldin. He would also command a lower salary then Boldin.
I agree Dylan. Edwards is better than any player they’d get at that spot, and he is a true #1.
How about Robiske in the 2nd round? I would almost guarantee he will be better than Miles freaking Austin.
Bassett, I am confused. How can one slam a player who had his chances and has showed nothing?
All those who propose trading Brad Smith don’t get it. Brad is worthless. A team needing a special teamer/wildcat QB might pick him up as a FA and give him a minimum salary contract. But he has done nothing as a KR, PR, QB, or WR. No separation at all.
Worthless.
harlan
NO MILES AUSTIN!!
It’s more superstition than substance, but the Ohio State players we have drafted have not been good to us which makes the idea of picking Robiske unsettling. Only giving us one quality starter in Nick Mangold, guys like Nugent, Gholston and Schlegel have been bad to worse.
Dylan is absolutely correct. Edwards is an elite receiver. Last year was an aberration with his drops. Except for Crabtree & Maclin, the other quality receivers are not ready to step in as a #1 – that’s what the Jets need. They have a 2 in Cotch; a pair of 3s in Stucky and Clowney and a 5 in Henry. WRs, even good ones, take time to perform well. Edwards is a #1 that they cannot find at 17. Without this trade, I would send Smith to the Browns and his buddy Mangini for a #4 pick, I would be surprised if he made the Jets. Austin is a 2 or 3 and would serve solely as a more experienced band-aid; something Woody Johnson is fully familiar with.
Harlan, can’t say that I disagree with your assesment of Brad Smith. He was probably hindered in his development though by the “myriad” of ways they tried to use him. I would not be upset to see him go.
I had Braylon Edward on my fantasy squad last year and he nearly killed my championship! They were on network TV a lot and I had the Sunday Ticket – He had so many ridiculous drops it is not even funny – like GROSS drops, wide open, down the field, he is Chuck “New Kids on” Knoblach on a football field guys.
…I guess what I am saying is he may be just as much of a risk as Miles Austin – anyone agree here with me?
They apparantley wanted a #1 and steve smith from the Giants. So its going to take more then just giving up our #1.
I was never sold on Brayland Edwards and I am still not. If Austin will cost more then a third its not worth it.
The more I think about it the more I want to see us take Pettigrew at 17. I know our history with 1st round TE’s, but I think he will have the bigger impact next year then anyone else would at that spot. We can leave keller in the slot most of the time and he can crack back on run plays. Our QB’s will benefit from having such a big target over the middle and he is the best blocking TE as well.
maybe tom, but keep in mind we pick 12 spots (i believe) before the giants.
in any event, i just cant see mike t making the miles austin move. if that doesn’t work out, he will look terrible. its not like giving up a draft pick for a proven player (i.e. favre)–in that scenario if the player doesn’t work out there is usually an extenuating circumstance or at the very least one could argue “the gm had to give it a shot”. if we give up a premium pick (like this year’s second rounder) for an unproven miles austin, mike t. would be putting himself out on an island to be blamed/criticized.
Here’s your daily cap buzzkill that everyone will ignore…
We can’t afford Edwards.
We can’t afford Ocho Cinco.
We can’t afford Boldin.
We can afford Miles.
Any further questions?
bent, which is exactly why the key is whether or not getting miles austin (in exchange for a 2nd rounder) is a sound risk to take. it seems very short sighted to take that risk (just because there are not better/affordable options via trade or free agency). i am not saying i know that miles austin wont become a player, im just saying that the negative risk is too high to view an exchange of a second rounder for him as a prudent decision.
Bent,
You’re right. Although being able to afford Miles doesn’t necessarily mean we should get him. And, no one ever ignores your cap reality. It’s just hard to take sometimes.
i hope we don’t make a offer for austin he’s not worth a 2nd rder according to cowboys fans
Cimini sounds just like a idiot call in geek…….You are not getting B Edwards for #52 and B Smith.
Edwards will command a #1 or a starting player & picks in return….. B Smith might even get cut this summer.
Also who in there right mind think Stuckey or Clowney are front line WR’s right now?
Nice column Cimini….
I dont want to part with #52 for Austin but I think the kid has got major upside and is a player in this league. I also dont want to wait 2 years for a WR that we draft to start to make plays….which seems to happen alot at that position.
If it happens I want be upset by it…..even though I know I am in the minority on this.
AKA….Drew,
What SHOULD the Jets do if they don’t sign Miles Austin, they can’t afford a big name player, and they don’t draft a WR? Unless you want them to go into the season with Stuckey as their #2 they need to do something.
Dylan, I think we all are assuming that if they they don’t make a trade for a WR they will draft one on day one
I would OK a trade of #52 for Austin under this condition: we would otherwise draft a WR with that pick.
Neither KB or DHB will be there in the second round, so it’s really Robiskie vs Austin. About equal upside, right? I think the choice is Austin, as he’s been in the league 3 years now and would immediately contribute, whereas Robiskie likely would not contribute to the level Austin would.
Plus, he’s a NJ guy – Garfield HS… Didn’t we used to have a guy who came outta there and played at a D2 school?
Drew,
Good point. I don’t LOVE the idea of giving up the #52 pick for an unproven receiver, but he seems like the best option available.
Bent, with next year being, supposedly, an uncapped year, why can’t we sign anyone we want? We can renegotiate contracts with currentplayers converting salary to bonus money due for cap purposes next year, creating cap space this year. And/or we can structure a deal so the high priced stud gets the salary they want this year and next and if there is no uncapped year they get cut but get paid their fair share for this year, giving them yet another payday.
I thought that what having an innovative GM was for.
harlan
Patrick Turner = pro bowler
IVE BEEN SAYING THIS FOR THE LONGEST TIME….. if we give up a second rounder for an un proven 25 year old wide out it will be a huge mistake, we can package our 2nd rounder ot get braylon edwards… Mangini has already taken back a few of his former players and id be more then happy to give him a Brad Smith or Bryan Thomas etc and maybe even a 4th or 5th if they wanted it for Braylon…. having a team of Braylon/Cotchery/Clowney and then we draft Moreno with our first pick and a Defensive end with the third round i think that would be the best thing for us….
Have to be brief, sorry –
1. Next year might not be uncapped
2. Restructuring current deals is a possibility but may unsettle things further in terms of disputes with players
3. Restructuring deals in respect of incoming players so that the cap number is low enough for the Jets to afford is going to be virtually impossible, especially with the different rules for NLTBE incentives
4. There are restrictions on how contracts are structured, you can put most of the money into the uncapped year, but not all of it (they only have a couple of million to play with after taking into account the rookie cap – which is likely to be higher this year because teams will pay higher signing bonuses because they can’t pay NLTBE incentives in the usual way – and leaving enough cap room to pay for the NLTBE incentives potentially due, because you aren’t allowed to go over the cap during the season).
Tannenbaum has already been innovative in getting it to this point. There are limits.
To afford a big name veteran receiver, the Jets would have to –
- Release at least one other starter, maybe more.
- Trade their number one pick (maybe for the incoming player, maybe for a 2010 first rounder)
- Hardly use Gholston next year to ensure he doesn’t earn any incentives
Brett – you make it sound so easy… I wish it really was.
HYPOTHETICALLY SPEAKING, if we could:
(A) trade a #2, a lower draft pick, and a Smith/Thomas for B. Edwards,
(B) maintain our #1 and draft Moreno, and
(C) draft a DT and a DE/OLB with other remaining picks this year,
I’d put on one of my GFs thongs and prance around the apt with no shame. Ok, a little shame. But I’d be PSYCHED.
you really think we could get edwards for a second round pick? that is a joke right.
when you draft any player, you run the risk of a bust. the reasons why i like miles is his speed and that he has done well on this level. that is worth a 2nd rounder in my mind
i have no idea how look at cap so i will not go there, but still think miles fills a great need and the jets will be better with him then without him
I think the Browns are actually shopping him for a second round pick. No, I couldn’t believe it either.
john r –
I’m with you, assuming the Jets go WR in Rd 2.
Here’s how I could see it panning out:
Option 1 – Sign Austin, give up #52, draft best player avail in round 1
Option 2 – Don’t sign Austin, draft best player avail in
round 1, if not a WR, target one in round 2 (ex. Robiskie)
Option 3 – Don’t sign Austin, trade UP in round 1 (likely giving up 17 AND 52) and draft Crabtree/Maclin
Option 4 – Don’t sign Austin, trade DOWN in round 1 and select a WR with that pick (ex. Britt, Nicks)
Honestly, Option 4 could work best for the Jets. They can draft a late 20’s WR, and target a RB in round 2, like Shonn Green or McCoy perhaps, plus they would get another pick somewhere…. OR they could draft someone like Donald Brown in the late 20’s and trade back into the 1st and go for a WR….
Kind of rambling here, but anything can happen.
I’m pretty sure the Browns said they were offered a 1st for him, but are looking for more. Heres the article:
http://ffwriterswithhair.com/2009/04/cleveland-on-verge-of-trading-quinn-dealing-edwards-and-being-irrelevant-for-the-next-three-years.html
I have a cap question: If Rex can’t turn VG into a football player how much of his contract do we have to pay, and what is the cap hit?
To me it is a better deal to pay proven veterans instead of rewarding rookies that play in weak conferences like the big 10.
haha nah i know DREW but i remember the browns were about to take steve smith the giants 2nd and giants 5th but giants pulled out cause they see a lot of upside in Smith so i really feel if we wanted to get this guy we could pull it off without giving up out 1st round pick..
i do think crabtree is this the real deal in this draft, and hopefully the lions draft him
all jokes aside, while the jets have done great in the draft the last couple of years, i would like them to get one more young nfl player so that they have a great long term core of players. someone made on why are the jets the most active in free agents, but you never see pitt or the ravens
while are 2nd round picks have done well, getting the speed of miles is just to good to pass on.
it also lets us either draft jackson, which fills another need or lets us take the best player out there, which could be a rb or a QB
I think the problem with Edwards is that he is in the final year of his deal and He is looking for Fitzgerald Money. I think Bent is correct , we just can’t afford him, IMO the Jets could squeeze Edwards in for 8 million a year, but Fitz is like 14 million a year. Simply Braylon Edwards is not worth that kind of money. In Contrast Miles Austin 3.5 to 4 million range. If we could do a contract for Edwards that would average 8million over 5 years, than I would send our First (17) and Smith for Edwards and a Fourth round pick, to me thats fair.
John there is zero percent chance the lions take Crabtree – that would be like dropping another bomb on nagasaki right after the first.
My Ideal situation – some how we move back in the first round and use what we got from moving back to move up in the second. This will mean we can get a DHB, Britt or Nicks late first round and a better RB late in round 2…
The only team I can see this working with I guess is the Giants…
We swap #1’s … they get 17, we get 29… and #2’s we get 45, they get 52 and then we get their 3rd Rd pick or something (91…)
What do folks expect out of Miles Austin ? I’m looking for competition for Clowney , for Miles to start catch 40 balls for 800 yards, give us a marginal deep threat and be a productive part of the offense at 3.5 million a year..
Miles Austin caught 13 balls, in his third season in the league. If he had ability, the Cowboys would have found a way to use him. They had three pre-seasons to know if they should use him, last year, and they threw him 13 balls. I like Tanny but, if he gives up our number two for Austin, he needs a new profession.
I don’t want Braylon Edwards. I want a reciever with glue for hands, not a guy who can drop the key pass in a big game.
What we need is a “big” receiver. I think we can find a nice receiver with our first or second picks. It will take good judgement of talent. I like Cotchery to replace Coles. I like Stuckey as our slot receiver. I can’t wait to see if Clowney can be our deep threat. I love Keller as our TE. What we need is a big receiver to play opposite Cotchery. We have Marcus Henry and Huey Whittaker, two big boys, and we could pick up someone like Ramses Barden or Patrick Turner in the draft. We will be just fine.
Last thing, I think Brad Smith was a victim of poor coaching. He was a college QB who was converted to a WR. The Jets used him for trick plays, instead of grooming him to be a WR. He is tough, runs like a deer and, once in the open field, he is tough to bring down. Unfortunately, we still have Schottenheimer as our O-Coordinator so things won’t change and Smith will probably be cut. I know most of you disagree but, if he was brought along properly, he could have been a nice player.
According to Cimini, the Jets will not be offering a contract to Austin.
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/jets/2009/04/forget-about-miles-austin.html
if there is anyway they can get Crabtree, they should….If needed QB can come next year… This guy is real and will open things up. Would love to see him in green.
JetOrange – Where I have said that we can afford these guys, I am not talking about in future years. The reason these deals are practically impossible is that their cap number this year exceeds the amount of available cap space. Of course, you cannot go over the cap in the NFL, so they would have to shed cap space some other way to get any of these guys. Looking at the cap position for next year, even if there is a cap (and I think it would be to the Jets advantage if there was one – of course, there being no cap could also be advantageous depending on how much the owner would be willing to spend) the Jets should have some pretty good flexibility, so they probably would be able to find a way to sign a guy like that. They just can’t make a trade now for one of them.
James in TN – Good question and one which cannot be answered simply. I’ve discussed exactly this with Jason from Jets Cap. We don’t know exactly how the deal is structured, but he believes there would be safeguards in place in case he really can’t play, moreso that for other recent first round picks. His 50m contract included a bunch of incentives that he probably won’t get, so he may never earn much more than the 20m he has guaranteed if he really doesn’t give them anything.
He missed his incentives for 2008 and his 2009 incentives apparently include a $3.6m payment if he plays more than 45% of the snaps. With the way the cap rules work with the prospect of an uncapped 2010, this will count against the 2009 cap if achieved during the season, so my understanding is that the Jets have to leave that much cap room available (since there are big penalties for going over the cap during the season). As unfathomable as it is to many of you that Gholston could contribute in 2009, the Jets cannot realistically afford to limit Gholston’s “pitch count” to below 45% because (a) it will, justifiably, annoy him and his agents (b) he might play well and (c) there may be injuries. What if Gholston is a key member of the defense but then has to sit while Trusnik and Murrell play in the divisional decider because Pace and Thomas are hurt and VG is too close to the 45% threshold but it’s too late to clear any more cap room?
So, I can’t put a dollar figure on it, but the good news is that he gets a lot more money if he plays well so he had a lot of reasons to stay motivated. Some salary from later on in the contract was advanced to Gholston for 2009, so we tried to read the tea leaves as to why this might be, but the conclusion we drew is that he was probably promised as much if his 2008 incentives were not met (because it has no effect on the Jets cap situation).