The TJB20: Who’s Your Guy?
Time to share wishlists for the 2009 NFL Draft.
Need a second to review the rules and the panelists, check out the introductions.
12) Within reason, if the draft falls the way you want it to, and the team keeps their 1st and 2nd rounder, what two players would you like to see the Jets snag?
Max from JetNation.com: Wide Receiver is the position that screams the loudest when you look at the Jets roster. Cotchery, Stuckey, Clowney, Smith, Wright, oh my. The Jets need a wide receiver badly. Depends on how things fall but Percy Harvin from Florida or Darrius Heyward-Bey from Maryland would both be great selections if either is available.
John Butchko from Gang Green Nation (SBN): I recently participated in a mock Draft with my blogging network. When 17 came along, I had Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, and Tyson Jackson all on the board. I passed them all up and took Knowshon Moreno. The Thomas Jones situation scares me. The Jets obviously are not giving him a new deal. God only knows what tricks Rosenhaus has up his sleeves. Even if Jones changes his mind, the potential for him to fall off a cliff is troublesome. When it goes for backs, it tends to go fast, and T.J. is a senior citizen in running back terms. Given the quarterback situation this season, it stands to reason the Jets will be based on ball control and defense. Moreno is the complete package. He would make a really nice insurance policy. If Jones runs as productively as he did a year ago, he will be a great mentor for Knowshon, a back with a similar style. The Jets will have a three headed monster for a running back rotation, which is going to take a ton of pressure off the quarterback.
Rey Maualuga is another guy I would have taken a serious look at. He was born to play middle linebacker in the 3-4. There is not a lot of depth there right now, and the system is based on linebacker play. He would give the team an elite rotation inside. He would also allow Rex Ryan to get creative. Maybe we would see some of Bart Scott off the edge or some looks running the 3-4 Eagle. That formation was developed by Rex father, Buddy, in Philadelphia. An inside linebacker lines up at nose tackle.
In the second round, Ron Brace from Boston College is my guy. He did not get as much publicity as BC’s other starting defensive tackle, B.J. Raji because he is less of a playmaker. Raji has the skills to play the three technique or nose in the 4-3 or 3-4. Brace is more of a traditional nose. He has excellent strength and is stout at the point of attack, and this is before NFL strength and conditioning coaches have gotten a hold of him. The Jets could use him to spell Kris Jenkins right off the bat and groom him take over the starting spot in a few years. He is tall enough (6′3″) and quick enough off the snap to also see some time in the rotation at defensive end the way Ryan played Haloti Ngata there early in his career. His presence would also make it easier for the team to show 4-3 fronts. Jenkins could play the three. It would be extremely difficult to run the ball with almost 700 pounds up the middle. Maybe it would help Vernon Gholston too. In the 4-3, Gholston could just stick his hand in the dirt, try to get upfield, and not worry about the run knowing the help he has behind him as he was accustomed to doing at Ohio State.
Kenny Britt is another guy who intrigues me. He could be around in the second round. He only played three years and is still the Big East’s all-time leading receiver. The conference has not been around for too long, but there have still been a lot of talented receivers like Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Larry Fitzgerald to play in it. He has all the physical tools of a number one receiver (size, strength, speed), runs very precise routes, and makes great cuts. I am not sure whether he can be the savior of the passing game in his first year considering the quarterback situation, but a potential number one in the middle of the second round would be excellent value.
Sean Deegan, Editor in Chief JetsInsider.com: Round 1: Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin: Very talented WR and returner who has the ability to step into Coles’ spot. I wish he had a tad more height but Maclin is a great fit for the Jets.
Round 2: Iowa RB Shonn Green: Powerful big bruising RB with speed that could be the heir apparent to Thomas Jones. May also make Jones think twice about considering a holdout.
Sean McCormick from Football Outsiders: I’m not a big believer in drafting for need, certainly not when there are superior players still on the board, so it’s hard to project who will slide and will be available. That said, I think the team needs to address team speed and explosiveness on both sides of the ball. Percy Harvin is a top-ten talent who could have the kind of impact that Desean Jackson had last year for Philadelphia, and he’s someone I would be looking at with the first round pick. I also think the team can’t assume that they are going to get pass rush from Gholston, and that if they could draft Connor Barwin or Larry English (who will likely be gone) in the second round, that it might make some sense.
Simon from SimonOnSports: Well in an ideal world I’d be frothing at the mouth if Jeremy Maclin ever fell to the Jets. Unfortunately I don’t think that’s going to happen. So I guess I’d want the next best receiving option in Darrius Heyward-Bey. The Jets desperately need a deep threat and Heyward-Bey could potentially be that guy. Is drafting a receiver in the first round very very risky? Yes, but that’s what they need. As for the 2nd round, I’m not quite sure who I desire. They’ve spent so much of the offseason plugging in some of the defensive holes that I don’t know if I would want a CB. If anything I think the 2nd round might be a good time to look for a DT to spell Jenkins a bit more but I’m not seeing a name that really fits a 2nd round pick.
Bob Bullock from Jetstream (NJ.com): I mentioned this before, Maclin or Heyward-Bey would be my two choices.
Bent from TheJetsBlog.com: Easily my favourite player in the draft is Alabama OT Andre Smith. He may be a bit of a headcase and therefore a risky pick, but I loved watching him in college. I think whoever drafts him will need to buckle up for some kind of adventure. Although I am usually risk-averse, I’m more than happy for them to take a big risk in the draft, unless it’s a top ten pick, because then you are making a big financial risk too. For some reason, I have a sneaking suspicion they might take Jarron Gilbert at number 17. Overall though, I tend to get more excited about the late round picks than the early rounders, which rarely deviate too far from expectations. I’m looking forward to seeing if Tannenbaum drafts any differently with Ryan having replaced Mangini.
Corey Griffin from TheJetsBlog.com: In the first round LSU defensive end Tyson Jackson and in the second, Connecticut running back Donald Brown. Brown screams to me as the most complete back in the draft and I’m confident they could move up into the early second round to land him without surrendering much more than a 3rd or a 4th round pick – perhaps even a future pick. Tannenbaum, Bradway and Co. have shown they are adept at moving up and down throughout the draft, so I would not be surprised to see the team fall back or move up to grab the player they want ala Darrelle Revis and Dustin Keller. He’d be an ideal understudy to Jones while giving the Jets a three-headed attack much like the Giants had the past two years and allow Ryan to rely on the run even moreso without becoming predictable. As far as Jackson, he’s a beast of a man and the perfect five-technique end for a 3-4 system. He could go to the Broncos at 12 and be the cornerstone to their Pats-Front Range defense. However, were he to fall, or were the Jets to move up to grab him, he has the potential to outright replace Kenyon Coleman at one end or at the very least rotate in often and be an outstanding run-stopper.
Add your thoughts on the NFL Draft in the comments.
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Honestly, the 1st round is tougher than the 2nd round. If Thomas Jones continues to skip workouts and such, then I would say Knowshon Moreno in the 1st. I think he’s a better prospect than Beanie Wells. In the 2nd, I think it has to be either a WR or a DE. A guy like Ramses Barden or Jarron Gilbert would be an ideal pick. Barden is more likely to be there than Gilbert.
i agree with rb shonn greene in the 2nd rd
I like the idea of going RB in Rd 1, or 2 but right now- I think there is too much talent at other positions; ones of more needs that we have to address. Even if TJ continues to act like a jerk- I like Leon and Chatman, especially with hopefully a more talented vertical attack.
Rd 1- DHB. I think best WR after Crabtree, great mixture of hands, size and speed. Should relate well fairly quickly to the league.
Rd 2- Duke Robinson. It’s becoming more realistic he can be there at 52. Only reason he would be there is because the position isn’t sexy but he is an absolute beast and can be an anchor in the years following Faneca. He’d also give some protection to one the thinest spots on the roster.
Sleepers for Rd 1 and 2.
It was addressed up top and is becoming common but a mxiture of Moreno/Gilbert/Greene/Ayers wouldn’t be horrible either.
If Sanchez is still available I don’t see how you can pass up the opportunity for a franchise QB. I acknowledge the Jets need for a WR and RB but I think you can get a decent WR in the 2nd round. (Maybe Britt? He has good size and speed.) If Sanchez is gone than I definitely would like Moreno. I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Jets ended up with either (Sanchez or Moreno).
Tyson Jackson and Kenny Britt.
Just to note, it’s looking like Britt and Donald Brown will be going in the back end of the first round. Why would we take a tackle?
I say trade up to see if you can get Crabtree if he falls to the 7-10 range (probably impossible) or trade down to the end of the first or early second to accumulate picks and then take the best available WR/RB/DE.
I would like to see the Jets, depending on availability, to draft any of the following 3 players
1. Maclin
2. Ayers
3. Jackson
4. Trade Down (if possible)
I have not seen anything from live game to tape to combine to individual work out that has made me think Sanchez can be a ‘franchise QB’ let alone a consistent starter in this league…I don’t see it. Taking him would be a mistake- I personally think the top 3 Qb’s are all way overvalued and this is a weak class for the Qb’s. WR and OL are the bright spots this yr, which some very nice talent at RB and DL. The other reason I’d shy from an RB is because next yr’s crew is stacked!! May be the best RB draft class ever…buy TJ for 1 more yr, then hope they have a pick next yr that can land Kendall Hunter.
DHB has more bust potential than anyone else with a first-round grade. I live in Maryland and saw 6-7 of DHB’s games this year. He made the occasional jaw-dropping play, but he also disappeared for long stretches, even against competition that he should have dominated. How does a guy with his skills score only 5 td’s all year on his 42 catches? Compare that to other first-round WR’s who supposedly have less big-play ability, like Maclin and Nicks, and all of them outshone him on the field.
The one and only reason people are talking about him as a top-20 player is because he has the measurables – terrific size and speed. But WR’s like him who haven’t learned to translate those tools to actual production almost always end up being disappointments in the pros. Most teams have learned to stop taking a Troy Williamson-type in the top 20 picks. That’s exactly what I think DHB is going to turn into. There are much, much better options.
Chris Wells and Brian Robeski would be my wish list for 1 & 2.
DHB should not be the pick. Agreeing with the comments earlier, I think he has the physical size and speed but so far it hasn’t translated so nicely. I’m taking the following if I’m calling the shots for the NYJ – -
1. Maclin – game changer with speed that would provide the vertical threat needed & no one can argue that taking him would not adress a definite need.
2. Sanchez – I happen to have hope in Ratty and KC but at 17 this is a steal. The guy can make all the throws and the potential is over the top.
3. Jackson – you can never have enough DE especially when you run the 3-4. He’s got the size and would provide immediate help while injecting much needed youth.
4. Trade – If all your options are gone this is what needs to be done. Freeman would create more questions than he would solve. Percy Harvin will have a hard time finding time on the field because of Leon and is too small.
tyson jackson has my heart right now, if he’s gone then Hay Bay all day, and if not that maybe a sick oline if one drops or another DE
1) Tyson Jackson
2) Trade down for more day 1 picks
3) best available OG or OT
4) Knowshon Moreno
Freeman in the 1st. As much physical potential as any QB prospect this decade overcomes the inconsistency, especially in his mechanics, that plagued him on a dismal K-State team.
Second round-best RB talent still available, I don’t really feel strongly about any single prospect, but if Rashad Jennings is still available, I’d take him…the perfect complement to Leon. I’m not into big backs, but Jennings (6-1, 232) doesn’t run upright and has to be tackled perfectly or he’ll just run through any arm-tackle. High character kid, who transferred from Pitt to be with his ailing father and was dominant at the I-AA level. Also, was the best RB at the Senior Bowl. A real powerful kid — did 29 reps of 225 lbs at the Combine. And, he has good hands.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEpJMNzBZ1k
My wish would be to trade our 17 to Cleveland for their 36 & 50, giving us 3 2nd rounders and lots of options.
If I have to do this based on no trades (including Miles Austin) then I’d have to say Maclin would be my first choice at 17, followed by Moreno. DHB has Johnny Lam Jones written all over him. You really can’t know too much about his talent as he played against suspect competition plus his QB was less than stellar.
My second rounder would depend on what we did in round one. If we took a WR at 17, I’d be looking for a RB here, preferably Donald Brown. If we went the other way, I’d be hoping for Robiskie at 52 or Britt. Forget about Barden until the third round, at the earliest.
Trade down-that’s the ticket. I gave one example, but there are others that could work, involving the Cards and Lions to name a couple.
Patrick Turner
A source has told Scout.com that USC wide receiver Patrick Turner is scheduled to visit the Tennessee Titans on April 14 and the Dallas Cowboys on April 16 and 17.
A two-year starter for the Trojans, Turner caught 138 passes for 1,752 yards and 17 touchdowns during his college career. At 6-foot-5, 223 pounds, he’s a big target who pulled-in ten of those touchdown catches during his senior year.
Turner is an unselfish player whose transition to the NFL should go smoothly due to his experience in USC’s pro-style offense. With 48 game appearances dating back to his freshman season, he’s a stable and steady talent who runs good routes and who will lay out for a pass, using his long arms and good hands to pull in an errant throw
Patrick Turner — please draft him.
You all saying trade back are slow because they said if the Jets KEPT their pick who do we pick.
Also Maclin and Jackson are dreams because Maclin is the second best receiver in the draft and Jackson is the best 3-4 DE in the draft with about 3 or 4 3-4 defenses needing a DE picking before us.
And Have you ever thought the reason why DHB disappeared because he got double covered or something?
But I am sticking too the rules and since Lesean Mccoys stock is dropping I would take
DHB 17th
Mccoy or Green 52nd
I would much rather Austin for a 2nd then DHB in the 1st, Then they could either draft Moreno or trade down and draft. Some good players near the end of the 1st are Jarron GIlbert and Brandon Pettigrew. The Jets are only weak at WR and maybe DE so they have a lot of options in this draft. I really hope they don’t take a 1st round WR though, unless they trade up for Crabtree (which I REALLY don’t see happening).
TE Brandon Pettigrew and DE Michael Johnson
I would go after DHB and Kenny Britt. No guarantees with receivers in the draft and two chances are better than one. Then look for O and D line help after that.
Cotchery, DHB and Britt nice little trio.
J-E-T-S, Maclin, Nicks, Harvin and Britt got double-teamed too. But somehow they still produced way more than DHB did.
Round #1 MORENO – Whether or not TJ plays this year, we need a starting RB for 2010. It would be better to draft one this year annd let him learn the offense. Moreno has heart. Like speed, you either have it or you don’t, you can’t learn it.
Round #2 – Trade it to Dallas for Austin.
uuuuuuuh, mark sanchez and louis murphy with a robiskie or patrick turner to back it up???
i say draft bpa. moreno and pettigrew very likely could be the best players available at 17. in 2nd round, robiskie might be good or maybe RB if we get pettigrew in first.
of course, if trading or moving up is involved, i really like andre smith. on tape, he is the best tackle in the draft. and i don’t care how a tackle looks while running a 40. i also don’t care if we have two decent tackles–it never hurts to get a great player at a discount.
If we are going to be a power team, then let’s be a GREAT power team. You don’t do that by drafting speedy WRs. To me, the value at 17 will be with one of the RBs, Moreno and Brown, in particular. In the 2nd, we should go DL, either NT or DE, whichever has the highest rated player. The rest of the draft (taken in an order of the best available players) should be for OL depth (including a blocking TE) and DL depth (particularly at NT – if we pick a DE in the second)
The new Mock draft on the newyorkjets.com is more of what I would expect in the first round and if that is the case, with Maclin, Jackson, Moreno, Raji gone they took Britt. To me it is either Wells, who has been my pick based on what I thought would happen as in this case, or DHB there because if you are going to reach with a WR it might as well be for the sky.
I guess you could say the same about Freeman but I’m not high on him.
If we take Wells first then there is a bunch of WR we may look for in the 2nd or maybe an OL there or DL if they like Gilbert and he’s there.
And in other news…Florio gave both the Jet’s picks in 2006 first round (D’brickashaw and Mangold) a “not a bust” rating. How gracious.
Let’s draft OT Andre Smith @17, line him up at TE in a 2 TE set with Keller. Then take Brown in the 2nd round and just run the crap out of the ball.
1 – Knowshon Moreno
2- BRIAN ROBISKIE!!!
Moreno
Britt
or
Moreno
Gilbert
Trade the 17th pick in RD 1 to CIncinatti for the 6th pick in RD 2
Grab Britt with the 6th pick
and
with the 20th pick of rd 2 I’d go for the best available DT or LB
Wells & Robiske
pound4pound-
Britt, and Nicks are more physical runners and we all said Maclin was better than DHB so whats your point.
I’m pretty sure that Freeman has less physical talent than Joe Flacco, who went last year, much less being a once-in-a-decade prospect.
BPA options would include Wells, Pettigrew (who plays a relatively unimportant position), Michael Oher and Robert Ayers. I’ve basically written off Harvin due to the character red flags and to his arguably duplicating Leon Washington’s skills.
It is time to take care of the Offense. Draft Moreno, Wells, or Harvin in round 1 and come back with Ramses Barden, Shon Greene, Donald Brown, or Duke Robinson in the second.
I don’t want us to draft a QB. You may like one or two of them but, I see no clear cut killers. If we need one, next year’s draft will have some guaranteed stars.
If we took TE Pettigrew in the first, I would not have a problem. We would have a scary two TE set. He is a big boy and his hands are glue.
I don’t think it will happen but, if a big Tackle like Michael Oher falls to us — jump on him. It can’t hurt to upgrade the O-Line. They make everyone on offense that much better and we need some depth. Woody is no youngster.
Man, I am like a kid in a candy shop. I love the draft. Unfortunately, I am a die-hard Jet fan. So, even if we all have good ideas — they could end up taking someone like Carl Barzalauskas, Johnny Lam Jones, Ron Faurot, Mike Haight, Anthony Becht, or DeWayne Robertson. The jury is still out on Gholston.
Go Ryanbaum!
Rd 1: Maclin (i know, he won’t fall) or Tyson Jackson or Moreno. I don’t want Harvin – injury history and character issues make it tough to take him with a first round pick (plus he is arguably too short to be an effective red zone target). DHB has the measurables but is not a first rounder based on film/production. Britt and Nicks are nice players, but I think a reach here. Maybe we can trade back and pick one of those guys later in the first in exchange for another pick.
Rd: 2: Gilbert or the best available DE or DT (maybe Ron Brace or Fili Moala). Or, depending on who we select in round one: Robiskie or the best available WR (i.e. Mike Wallace, Juaquin Iglesias, etc).
Rd 3: Rashad Jennings, Glen Coffee or best available RB or an O-lineman or just bpa.
I know many think that Moreno would be the best available player should he fall to 17, but I think the overall value of RBs has taken a considerable hit over the past few years. They are far too susceptible to injury and they are most effective in a committee approach. Plus, we have immediate needs and Moreno doesn’t fill one. TJ will play despite the current contract skirmish. Leon is a stud and figures to be more involved in the running game this year. And also there is too much talent at the RB position to justify taking Moreno in round 1. Rashad Jennings is an absolute beast and he will fall to Rd 3.
[...] thejetsblog.com. Please read the complete article and let us know what you think [...]
Maclin in the first
Best RB available in the 2nd
I’m warming to the idea of Pettigrew in the 1st. A two TE set with Keller could give us crazy run and play-action pass potential because Petogrew is a great blocker and both he and Keller can make plays down the field. It would be an interesting way to keep an inexperienced QB out of trouble.
If there is a way to pull of Britt without reaching, Gilbert and Jennings the Jets get a A in my book
“I’m pretty sure that Freeman has less physical talent than Joe Flacco”
Are you kidding me?! Flacco’ a good passer and can run slightly better than Marino, but he does not have more physical talent than Freeman. I have to agree with sackdance99 Freeman has as much physical talent as any prospect in the last decade. Freeman reminds me of Elway.
Rashad Jennings, very impressive. He reminds me of what Dustin Keller would be like if he were a RB.
I’d have to say a pint of Michael Oher with a Donald Brown chaser.
Round 1: I have often put down and overlooked this player for being a too young, but no other recievers have a skill set that I think is best for the team. So, WR Kenny Britt deserves to be selected at 17.
Round 2: I also put down this player since he singlehandedly crushed my college team in the 2008 international bowl. But differences aside; RB Donald Brown (if he is still there) should go to the jets.
seanmac,
How is Flacco more physical than Freeman? I would love to hear your reasoning.
If he falls to 17, which I doubt he will, I would take Tyson Jackson. But if he is off the board I would prefer to trade down and acquire another pick or two.
We need depth at middle linebacker, so why not trade down to the mid 20’s and acquire a 3rd round pick on top of that, and draft James Laurinaitis, who was ranked as a top-5, top-10 pick lasy year before he decided to go back another year.
Then is the 2nd round…trade up with one of your additional picks and grab the TE Jared Cook
Jay Tort,
I agree with the statement about Tyson Jackson, but reaching on Laurinitis? And trading up to grab a virtual clone of Dustin Keller in Jared Cook? Jared Cook is a one dimensional TE who doesn’t offer much in the blocking game.
TRADE DOWN OPTION ???
Trade down from 17 to around 27 to 30 and add a 2nd round pick around #61 overall
#27 to 30 = RB (Wells, Moreno, or McCoy)
#52 = DE (Gilbert or Michael Johnson)
Around #61 = NT Chris Baker
#76 = WR Ramses Barden
This type of decision is much much easier than everyone is making it out to be. The Rams have advertised their #2 pick is for sale. I say we give them our 1st, 2nd, 5th and next yrs 2nd rd pick and we trade up to #2 and draft either Stafford or Crabtree. And in this yr’s 3rd round we get Donald Brown or another solid RB or WR.
1st: Stafford or Crabtree
3rd: Donald Brown or Hakeem Nicks
5th: Ramses Barden
seanmac, if you are going to be derisive, at least get my quote right and respond accordingly. I said that Freeman has:
“As much physical potential as any QB prospect this decade… ”
You said:
“I’m pretty sure that Freeman has less physical talent than Joe Flacco…”
I stand by my statement because I did not use the subjective word “talent.” I have seen lots of Flacco and he does not throw as well on the run as Freeman and, overall, he doesn’t have Freeman’s mobility. They both have very strong arms, can make all the NFL throws and, IMO, Flacco was more polished, but he did face inferior competition in college (Freeman for the most part dominated I-AA competition). On straight physical potential, I rate Freeman as having superior physical ability…or, at the very least, “as much” as Flacco.
seanmac, I was right about Matt Ryan as a superior QB prospect, worthy of a no. 1 pick. I believe you said he was an overrated and terrible prospect that would be a bust. You were wrong and I was right. Freeman is a risky pick because he’s not a finished product like Ryan, but Freeman is a unique physical specimen, with as complete a set of tools as any QB drafted this decade. At the 17th pick, he’s worth it, like Flacco was worth the 18th pick. I have no idea whether Freeman will become a franchise QB, I do know, however, that he has the physical prowess to be a franchise QB, which is something that, for instance, Brady Quinn, who you like, does not have.
Maclin in round 1 and Donald Brown in round 2.
I read something that Brace was expected to be a 3rd rounder at earliest – he’d be a spectacular addition that late in the draft.
RJ,
Putting passes where they are supposed to go is a much more important skill than being “physical.” Flacco had superior ball placement, and it showed up clearly in his accuracy numbers (as well as his scouting reports). Freeman’s scouting reports tend to read like this:
Measurables
Height: 6′6
Weight: 248
40 Time: 4.82
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical Jump: N/A
Three Cone: N/A
Best Fit Position/Role: Starting quarterback
Ideal Scheme/Role: Shotgun/Timing offense
“Strengths: Freeman has an absolute cannon for an arm. His arm strength will immediately compare with every pro quarterback. He can make every throw. His deep accuracy has gotten better in 2008, as has his decision making. Is big and strong and will be able to absorb hits from NFL defenders. Will step up in the pocket, giving himself more time to throw. Can be accurate on his deep ball, but needs to learn more about touch.
Weaknesses: Freeman is not adept at making pre-snap reads. Doesn’t stay on his toes. Fades away from his follow through. Did best in ‘07 throwing screens to Jordy Nelson. Backpedals when blitzed. Has a rocket arm, but no touch. If he is making a read it’s one side/one player (ex: corner). Freeman must learn to step in to his throws, refine his motion to keep the ball high in his drop, and show that he can win without Yamon Figurs/Nelson running bubble screens. He also has a terrible habit of winding up on the run. His delivery is long and slow. Will take many sacks unless his footwork and escapability improve greatly.
Overall: Freeman has a huge arm, but his game likely doesn’t translate well to the NFL. He has horrible mechanics from his footwork to his release. He will be drafted higher than he should because of his upside and arm.”
That doesn’t strike me as something we need to chase after, but that’s just me.
sackdance,
Are you really going to spend all your Matt Ryan chips on behalf of Josh Freeman of all people? As I recall, you were also waxing rhapsodic about Derek Anderson and his 6′5″ goodness. He was on his way to another big year as I recall.
As for Brady Quinn, there is no question that he has inferior physical skills to Freeman. But he has a far superior body of work, as most successful NFL quarterbacks tend to have. I don’t love Quinn at all and I’m not about to get up and start beating his drum, but if I’m burning a first round pick, I would rather it be on a guy who has a greater likelihood of turning into a quality player. I guess it comes down to philosophy- some people like to swing for the fences with their picks and I would prefer to hit doubles. I have no interest in Josh Freeman for the same reason I have no interest in DHB, and for the same reason that I was very concerned about Vernon Gholston last year (you’ll recall that for all my bashing of Matt Ryan, he was by far my preference over Gholston)- I don’t care for players whose measurables did not translate into consistent production on the field. Now obviously the stakes go up the higher you are drafting, and you can argue that it’s better to take a risk at 17 than to take a risk at 6, because you won’t get hit as badly in the cap. But that doesn’t mean you should up and throw the pick away.
Maybe Freeman was on such a terrible team that he couldn’t help his numbers. (Though I find that argument a bit suspicious, seeing as Jay Cutler was a much stronger player on a worse team and playing in a better conference.) There’s actually evidence to say as much, as Freeman’s completion percentage numbers are a good 5-6 points higher than the guys who came right before him. That speaks well of Freeman. On the other hand, it doesn’t look good that he can complete 75% of his passes only when he’s playing Montana State, and his numbers against the better defenses he’s faced are frankly abysmal. I was reading a scout talk about the difference between Ryan and Freeman. When BC played a good defense, you could see that Ryan’s teammates struggled, but Ryan didn’t. When Freeman played a good defense, he struggled along with everyone else.
Will-what you are proposing as “simple” is, in fact, impossible. You propose we trade up to the Rams #2 spot and, for that, we give the Rams our 1,2 and 5 and a 2 next year. Here’s why it won’t work, Every draft position has a value. The #2 pick in the draft is worth 2600 points. Our 1 & 2 combined are worth 1330. Add another 400 for next year’s 2 and you’re at 1730, far short of the value of the #2 pick overall. By the way the NYJ have no 5th round pick. See, not simple at all.
if beanie wells or knowshon moreno r available i wud take 1 of them or try to trade way up and get maclin or crabtree (not goin to happen), so if all those guys are gone we should trade for a late first and a 2nd because i think all of these wide outs with the exception of maclin, crabtree, and britt are going to be busts
At this point who knows which players will be available when the Jets draft, who will trade up and who will drop out of the top ten to 20 picks. If the Jets can move into the top 10 than it would have to be a game breaking WR, if not they could snag a good one in round 2, a RB is not a pressing issue either so they could pick one up in the 3rd or 4th round. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a CB, but this may be a stretch as well seeing as they signed Lito Smith. DL and OL are need positions but depending on what and where who knows. Of all the years drafting this one seems to be a toss up. My best guess would be that the Jets draft a WR should a top player be available, but I wouldn’t rule out a DL/DE in round 1, a WR in round 2, and a RB in round 3 or 4. Who would I like to see DL Jackson, WR Britt, RB Shonn Green.
Seanmac,
You said above “I don’t care for players whose measurables did not translate into consistent production on the field.” I can understand that, but it doesn’t apply to Freeman who was very productive on the field, hers’s his stats for the three years at KSU:
YR. CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
2006 140 270 1780 51.9 6.59 80 6 15 25 103.45
2007 316 499 3353 63.3 6.72 68 18 11 17 127.26
2008 224 382 2945 58.6 7.71 77 20 8 15 136.48
How are these stats not productive, he’s a career 60% passer and has a caree rating well over 100.
Maybe your just not a good judge of QBs?
seanmac,
If you watched Joe Flacco play at all this season, which I did going to school in MD, you would know that his completion % does not translate to what he actually did. He threw mostly 5 to 10 yard passes and his only job in Baltimore was to be a game manager. You are giving him way too much credit and every Ravens fan would agree.
Ramble,
Actually, he’s a career 58.6% passer, and he started in 33 games. Josh Freeman is exciting because you haven’t had a chance to see him in a pro uniform. His profile reads exactly like the player who he reminds me of- Patrick Ramsey (32 starts, 58% comps). Would you be racing out to spend the 17th pick overall on Patrick Ramsey?
RJ,
I’m not talking about what Flacco did last year, I’m comparing him to Freeman as a prospect. Flacco was not very good last year. Flacco was good *considering* that he was expected to take time to get his footwork ironed out and to adjust to the speed of the pro game. Under the circumstances, he performed pretty well. But that’s not the same thing as saying he played at, say, Matt Ryan’s level. It wasn’t even close.
Seanmac,
His average comp % is 61 for the 2 years he started and played every game, his first year he only started and played 5 games, so it’s unfair to say its 58%.
I also noticed how you didn’t mention his QB rating, which averaged 122 for the three years.
The bottom line is he’s a lot better then you give him credit for, and with his size, speed athletic ability and arm strenght we should take a shot at him with #17.
seanmac, I brought up Ryan because I don’t think you evaluate the QB position well. We debated this endlessly last year. Freeman has height, bulk, mobility and a cannon arm. And, he was pretty accurate for a QB on a bad team…his stats for his last 2 years were, overall, slightly better than Cutler’s (and Freeman did have those 14 rushing TDs). I can’t evaluate what’s between his ears or in his heart. I just see a guy who has the physical potential to be a franchise QB, which is more than many starting NFL QBs have. I’m not going to bash Quinn, but his NFL success has been spotty (and certainly no better than Anderson). As for Anderson, it’s interesting that Mangini is looking to move Quinn, not Anderson. That’s not surprising to me because Anderson has physical tools (height, great arm strength) that Quinn doesn’t have. And, there’s my issue with the FO analysis. Evaluate the physical potential, then look at the stats and make the call. You fail to look at things like height, mobility, arm strength, etc and base success solely on games started and completion %, with somewhat arbitrary cut-offs. If Freeman had a slightly better senior than junior season (to move his career completion % over 60), his Lewin ranking would’ve been boffo…likely similar to Carson Palmer. That just strikes me as random.
Oh, and I’m not done flogging you with Matt Ryan. You weren’t just wrong, you blundered on a guy who arguably had the greatest rookie season in NFL history. That’s quite a miss. :-)
Wishes:
Sanchez
Britt
Rashad Jennings
Iggy-
If a #1,2,4 and next years #2 don’t equal moving up 14 spots than I say the Jets just sign 3 WR’s- you have to approach these drafts with some humility… something the Jets are not known for doing this time of year…
ps- Gholston… ? … we could’ve gotten flacco or a solid RB… I
Sack,
Maybe so, but here’s the thing- I’m fine with being wrong about Ryan. My issue was that he wasn’t productive enough to warrant a top five pick, and, given the potential downside involved in drafting a bust or a mediocre player at that spot, I’d go elsewhere. Ryan bucked the trend and played very, very well, but that doesn’t mean that the trend doesn’t exist or that the argument was an invalid one. It doesn’t bother me that we didn’t get Matt Ryan, and if given the chance to take my preferred course of action- drafting Flacco or Henne lower down in the draft- I’d be fine going that route again. (You also were insisting that Chad Pennington could no longer be a starting quarterback in the NFL last season to go along with your Ryan/Anderson musings, so you’re batting 1-for-3 at the moment. But your hit was a big one.)
In any event, the Lewin theory is designed specifically to keep you from making exactly the kind of mistake everyone seems to want to make on Freeman, a guy who by virtually every account carried a second or third round grade during the football season but whose stock is shooting up because he looks good throwing against air.
And I think you said it well, Freeman has several attributes like height, mobility and a cannon arm that many NFL starters don’t have, including (but not limited to) guys like Drew Brees and Kurt Warner. What he hasn’t shown much of are good instincts, accuracy or pocket awareness, all of which are arguably more important to succeeding in the league. The only quarterback in this draft who has the latter traits is Mark Sanchez, and he is the only quarterback who might be worth the 17th pick in the draft…even though he’s all of 6′2″. (And frankly, I’d be leery of taking him, too.)
The other thing that warrants mention in the Cleveland situation is that, if reports are to be believed, the Browns already have a first-round pick on the table for Quinn. No one is offering a first-round pick for Derek Anderson. So while Mangini may actually like Anderson, he may also not think there is much to choose from between the two (or he may not want either player), and it makes sense to trade the guy who will fetch more on the open market.
Nice call by Deegan from JetsInsider on Shonn Green. Let’s see the effect, if any, on Thomas Jones potentially holding out.