Comments on: Bloomberg.com Pans Jets Draft … From a Pure Economic Standpoint http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/ Ranting and Raving about the Gang Green Sun, 12 Feb 2012 20:15:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: seanmac31 http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154676 seanmac31 Thu, 30 Apr 2009 23:38:14 +0000 http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154676 Well said, AL. The argument is that over time you are going to have the most efficient team possible by eschewing high picks and accumulating picks in the second round. Of course, sometimes a top pick is going to outperform even what a top pick should be--Peyton Manning comes to mind--and of the three top franchises this decade, all have pulled the trigger on at least one top five pick (Seymour to NE, McNabb to Philly, Peyton and Edgerrin James to Indy). But by in large, they keep their rosters deep and competitive by consistently weighing salary versus production in their team building strategies. Look no further than New England's draft strategy this year if you want to see a team that has fully incorporated cost into their draft strategy. Well said, AL. The argument is that over time you are going to have the most efficient team possible by eschewing high picks and accumulating picks in the second round. Of course, sometimes a top pick is going to outperform even what a top pick should be–Peyton Manning comes to mind–and of the three top franchises this decade, all have pulled the trigger on at least one top five pick (Seymour to NE, McNabb to Philly, Peyton and Edgerrin James to Indy). But by in large, they keep their rosters deep and competitive by consistently weighing salary versus production in their team building strategies. Look no further than New England’s draft strategy this year if you want to see a team that has fully incorporated cost into their draft strategy.

]]> By: Bloomberg.com Pans Jets Draft … From a Pure Economic Standpoint | JetsVine http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154448 Bloomberg.com Pans Jets Draft … From a Pure Economic Standpoint | JetsVine Thu, 30 Apr 2009 10:49:16 +0000 http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154448 [...] thejetsblog.com. Please read the complete article and let us know what you think [...] [...] thejetsblog.com. Please read the complete article and let us know what you think [...]

]]> By: AL http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154387 AL Thu, 30 Apr 2009 01:03:01 +0000 http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154387 I don't think anyone understood this article. Let me explain it another way. The structure of the NFL makes it very difficult to maintain success. One way to do that is maintain an "edge" An edge is any statistically significant outcome in your favor over time. This is how professional traders, and professional gamblers make a living. If you pay 1 dollar for an apple and it costs 1 dollar you didn't get a deal. Even if it was the tastiest apple you ever had. If you paid 50 cents or 75 Cents than you are ahead of the game. Buying players in the second and third rounds that play at a first round value is how you maintain success. If you pay a guy in the first round a zillion dollars and he is great it doesn't put you ahead of the game it just means you kept pace. Over time no one can keep pace. I like the players that tannebaum got. But doing this strategy 3 years in a row a recipe for failure. I don’t think anyone understood this article.

Let me explain it another way. The structure of the NFL makes it very difficult to maintain success.

One way to do that is maintain an “edge”

An edge is any statistically significant outcome in your favor over time. This is how professional traders, and professional gamblers make a living.

If you pay 1 dollar for an apple and it costs 1 dollar you didn’t get a deal. Even if it was the tastiest apple you ever had. If you paid 50 cents or 75 Cents than you are ahead of the game.

Buying players in the second and third rounds that play at a first round value is how you maintain success.

If you pay a guy in the first round a zillion dollars and he is great it doesn’t put you ahead of the game it just means you kept pace. Over time no one can keep pace.

I like the players that tannebaum got. But doing this strategy 3 years in a row a recipe for failure.

]]> By: will http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154367 will Wed, 29 Apr 2009 22:53:21 +0000 http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154367 Bloomberg should know that the best way to get wealthy is to put your eggs on a single bet (a stock, a company, a potential star QB, whatever). On the other hand, the best way to preserve wealth is to spread the risk (stocks, bonds, funds, currencies, mid-round draft picks, etc) . So, since the Jets are not yet wealthy they have done the right thing in placing their draft pick eggs in the Sanchez basket. Its boom or bust. If it works out then the Jets can in future look to preserve the wealth by accumulating draft picks and shore up the rest of the roster. The Colts sucked until they got Manning. The Giants did not compete for the super bowl until they had Manning. Belicheck was not a genius until he had Brady. I understand that there are exceptions to this rule. Bloomberg should know that the best way to get wealthy is to put your eggs on a single bet (a stock, a company, a potential star QB, whatever). On the other hand, the best way to preserve wealth is to spread the risk (stocks, bonds, funds, currencies, mid-round draft picks, etc) . So, since the Jets are not yet wealthy they have done the right thing in placing their draft pick eggs in the Sanchez basket. Its boom or bust. If it works out then the Jets can in future look to preserve the wealth by accumulating draft picks and shore up the rest of the roster.

The Colts sucked until they got Manning. The Giants did not compete for the super bowl until they had Manning. Belicheck was not a genius until he had Brady.

I understand that there are exceptions to this rule.

]]> By: Joe A http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154346 Joe A Wed, 29 Apr 2009 21:58:17 +0000 http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154346 Jehuu Caulcrick Kenwin Cummings Mike Devito Marques Douglas Jay Feely James Ihedigbo Larry Izzo Jim Leonhard Brandon Moore Marques Murrell Tony Richardson Bart Scott Jason Trusnik Robert Turner Wallace Wright That's a list of noteable undrafted free agents currently on the jets roster. Maybe sometimes its not so bad to have these "undrafted scrubs" on the roster. Jehuu Caulcrick
Kenwin Cummings
Mike Devito
Marques Douglas
Jay Feely
James Ihedigbo
Larry Izzo
Jim Leonhard
Brandon Moore
Marques Murrell
Tony Richardson
Bart Scott
Jason Trusnik
Robert Turner
Wallace Wright

That’s a list of noteable undrafted free agents currently on the jets roster. Maybe sometimes its not so bad to have these “undrafted scrubs” on the roster.

]]> By: Bent http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154343 Bent Wed, 29 Apr 2009 21:48:28 +0000 http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154343 It is possible. He will probably have a low salary in year one and at least half of his guaranteed money will be in the form of roster bonuses in year two (and maybe later years). The signing bonus will be spread over the life of the contract, so only a sixth of it will count against the cap in 2009 and so when coupled with the low salary, the cap number could be less than $3m and Greene and Slauson could be signed with the rest. The rookie cap they got was lower than I expected though, so the Jets do have about $1.5m more cap room than I had estimated. They still couldn't have afforded Chad Jackson or Torry Holt though and would only be able to get guys like Cutler, Boldin and Braylon if they didn't seek a new deal (or if the new deal was structured in a similar way to the example above). As a general comment though, I do think a lot of teams will struggle to get their rookies signed because of the different rules for incentives in 2009. Hopefully, the Jets aren't one of them. It is possible. He will probably have a low salary in year one and at least half of his guaranteed money will be in the form of roster bonuses in year two (and maybe later years). The signing bonus will be spread over the life of the contract, so only a sixth of it will count against the cap in 2009 and so when coupled with the low salary, the cap number could be less than $3m and Greene and Slauson could be signed with the rest.

The rookie cap they got was lower than I expected though, so the Jets do have about $1.5m more cap room than I had estimated. They still couldn’t have afforded Chad Jackson or Torry Holt though and would only be able to get guys like Cutler, Boldin and Braylon if they didn’t seek a new deal (or if the new deal was structured in a similar way to the example above).

As a general comment though, I do think a lot of teams will struggle to get their rookies signed because of the different rules for incentives in 2009. Hopefully, the Jets aren’t one of them.

]]> By: jvsvn http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154342 jvsvn Wed, 29 Apr 2009 21:47:55 +0000 http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154342 Bernie, you make valid points that I generally agree with. If you look through my pre-draft posts, you'll see that I was advocating that KC would be fine and that we should load up on OLs and DLs in the draft. Obviously, that's not what happened. If you are going to go the high risk route then you better be right. Tanny entire tenure will now be defined by the success or failure of the "Sanchez Era." Given the history of QB play in the NFL, that's pretty risky. But I'm a Jet fan. I want them to win. Therefore, I hope Sanchez (and, by extension, Tanny) goes down as one of the greats. My fear now is that a couple of injuries along the OL or DL will put us in a world of hurt. 2007 was not fun and I don't want to repeat it. But hey, it's April, it's a time for optimision. We've got a new QB. Let's enjoy the moment and hope it all works out. Bernie, you make valid points that I generally agree with. If you look through my pre-draft posts, you’ll see that I was advocating that KC would be fine and that we should load up on OLs and DLs in the draft. Obviously, that’s not what happened. If you are going to go the high risk route then you better be right. Tanny entire tenure will now be defined by the success or failure of the “Sanchez Era.” Given the history of QB play in the NFL, that’s pretty risky. But I’m a Jet fan. I want them to win. Therefore, I hope Sanchez (and, by extension, Tanny) goes down as one of the greats. My fear now is that a couple of injuries along the OL or DL will put us in a world of hurt. 2007 was not fun and I don’t want to repeat it. But hey, it’s April, it’s a time for optimision. We’ve got a new QB. Let’s enjoy the moment and hope it all works out.

]]> By: JEFFDOLINI http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154335 JEFFDOLINI Wed, 29 Apr 2009 21:19:48 +0000 http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154335 Hey Bent check these numbers out, how could the Jets possibly fit their three picks in the 3.4 million dollar range when Sanchez is going to make 8 or 9 a year, this is where the rookie pool gets a little confusing? Rookie pool allocations Team Picks Pool 1. Lions 10 $8,074,992 2. Broncos 10 $7,117,871 3. Bengals 8 $6,636,324 4. Patriots 12 $6,032,711 5. Bills 8 $5,940,374 6. Rams 7 $5,925,441 7. Jaguars 9 $5,737,150 8. Chiefs 8 $5,538,247 9. Packers 8 $5,443,396 10. Seahawks 7 $5,192,801 11. Titans 11 $5,158,799 12. Raiders 7 $5,048,693 13. Browns 8 $4,928,948 14. Giants 9 $4,867,462 15. Dolphins 9 $4,820,998 16. Cowboys 12 $4,639,193 17. Texans 8 $4,603,346 18. Steelers 9 $4,284,902 19. Chargers 8 $4,200,683 20. Falcons 8 $4,126,197 21. 49ers 7 $4,107,801 22. Colts 8 $4,079,726 23. Eagles 8 $4,060,021 24. Cardinals 8 $3,976,197 25. Bears 9 $3,497,111 26. Redskins 6 $3,460,954 27. Jets 3 $3,429,442 28. Colts 6 $3,372,231 29. Bucs 6 $3,359,466 30. Panthers 7 $3,326,694 31. Vikings 5 $3,064,512 32. Saints 3 $2,802,342 Total 256 $150,755,025 Hey Bent check these numbers out, how could the Jets possibly fit their three picks in the 3.4 million dollar range when Sanchez is going to make 8 or 9 a year, this is where the rookie pool gets a little confusing?

Rookie pool allocations
Team Picks Pool
1. Lions 10 $8,074,992
2. Broncos 10 $7,117,871
3. Bengals 8 $6,636,324
4. Patriots 12 $6,032,711
5. Bills 8 $5,940,374
6. Rams 7 $5,925,441
7. Jaguars 9 $5,737,150
8. Chiefs 8 $5,538,247
9. Packers 8 $5,443,396
10. Seahawks 7 $5,192,801
11. Titans 11 $5,158,799
12. Raiders 7 $5,048,693
13. Browns 8 $4,928,948
14. Giants 9 $4,867,462
15. Dolphins 9 $4,820,998
16. Cowboys 12 $4,639,193
17. Texans 8 $4,603,346
18. Steelers 9 $4,284,902
19. Chargers 8 $4,200,683
20. Falcons 8 $4,126,197
21. 49ers 7 $4,107,801
22. Colts 8 $4,079,726
23. Eagles 8 $4,060,021
24. Cardinals 8 $3,976,197
25. Bears 9 $3,497,111
26. Redskins 6 $3,460,954
27. Jets 3 $3,429,442
28. Colts 6 $3,372,231
29. Bucs 6 $3,359,466
30. Panthers 7 $3,326,694
31. Vikings 5 $3,064,512
32. Saints 3 $2,802,342
Total 256 $150,755,025

]]> By: bernie http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154333 bernie Wed, 29 Apr 2009 21:10:20 +0000 http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154333 The Eli comparison is apples to oranges. The Giants were stacked at most positions, especially the pass rush, where the Jets are as weak as anyone in football, and the O-line. The Giants, therefore, were in a good position to deal those future picks. The Jets are not. Listen, Sanchez and Green may turn out great. But NFL championships are won in the trenches, and the Jets are extremely thin on both lines, especially the D. You can set a franchise back years by continually giving up picks, as the Jets do, and throwing all eggs in one basket. You're exposing yourself too much to the boom/bust factor. The draft is too much of a crapshoot and smart teams get as many guys as they can to minimize risk. Much as I hope Sanchez is the savior, I am weary of the Terry Bradway "panic" strategy on draft day (and don't forget TB is still employed here). Whether it was the D-Rob fiasco in '03 (because Josh Evans was rumored to be suspended) or drafting a kicker in the 2nd round in '05 on the false assumption that Doug Brien was the one weak link on the team (where is Nugent now?), or this year thinking Favre left the cupboard bare at QB (by the way, only 3 years after we traded up to get Clemens!) giving up all those draft picks to go for one specific guy is a losing strategy in the long term, IMO. The Eli comparison is apples to oranges. The Giants were stacked at most positions, especially the pass rush, where the Jets are as weak as anyone in football, and the O-line. The Giants, therefore, were in a good position to deal those future picks. The Jets are not.

Listen, Sanchez and Green may turn out great. But NFL championships are won in the trenches, and the Jets are extremely thin on both lines, especially the D. You can set a franchise back years by continually giving up picks, as the Jets do, and throwing all eggs in one basket. You’re exposing yourself too much to the boom/bust factor. The draft is too much of a crapshoot and smart teams get as many guys as they can to minimize risk.

Much as I hope Sanchez is the savior, I am weary of the Terry Bradway “panic” strategy on draft day (and don’t forget TB is still employed here). Whether it was the D-Rob fiasco in ’03 (because Josh Evans was rumored to be suspended) or drafting a kicker in the 2nd round in ’05 on the false assumption that Doug Brien was the one weak link on the team (where is Nugent now?), or this year thinking Favre left the cupboard bare at QB (by the way, only 3 years after we traded up to get Clemens!) giving up all those draft picks to go for one specific guy is a losing strategy in the long term, IMO.

]]> By: JetObsessed28 http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154310 JetObsessed28 Wed, 29 Apr 2009 20:38:04 +0000 http://www.thejetsblog.com/2009/04/29/bloombergcom-pans-jets-draft-from-a-pure-economic-standpoint/#comment-154310 Why do they even bother to play the games if an "economic model" can tell me how great (or not great) my football team is... Why do they even bother to play the games if an “economic model” can tell me how great (or not great) my football team is…

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