TJB Rewind – Bent Gets Serious: Gholston v Adams
Oh Lordy, it’s the doldrum days of TJB and it’s only gonna get worse.
Sure the team is in OTAs today, and we’ll be sure to bring you them, but often we churn over material so fast, and so many of you are new readers, sometimes you don’t see some great content. This morning I’m bringing you a prescient piece Bent wrote last year at this time on Vernon Gholston and how fans should curb their enthusiasm for him … at least as a rookie. Enjoy.
In light of the recent debate over whether or not and to what extent Vernon Gholston can make an instant impact, I may have stumbled upon a pretty useful projection device.
This particular device is called “Gaines Adams” and, while there are certainly differences, which I will come to, I think there are enough similarities that we can compare the two.
Naturally, this will probably not prove the most exhaustive comparison possible, so if you can point out further similarities or differences to strengthen or dispel the conclusions reached here, then please do. I do not set out to prove or disprove anything, but by finding a similar case and identifying the impact of any differences between the two, it may give some indication as to how much and when we can expect Vernon to start dominating (if at all).
Prepare for a long article after the jump, with no puns or (sic)s.
Guaranteed.
Here’s the tale of the tape:
Size/Athletic Profile Comparison
When drafted, Adams was 6’4” 258…Gholston was 6’4” 264
From combine and pro day numbers:
* 40 Yrd Dash: 4.64 for Adams, 4.58 for Gholston
* 20 Yrd Dash: 2.71 for Adams, 2.63 for Gholston
* 10 Yrd Dash: 1.58 for Adams, 1.53 for Gholston
* Vertical Jump: 35 for Adams, 42 for Gholston
* Broad Jump: 9’11″ for Adams, 10’5” for Gholston
* 20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.36 for Adams, 4.40 for Gholston
* 3-Cone Drill: 7.17 for Adams, 7.12 for Gholston
Bench Press: 20 reps for Adams, 37 for Gholston
Conclusion: They are virtually the same size and the athletic numbers are very similar as well. Vertical leap (an indicator of explosiveness) and bench press (brute strength) are areas where Gholston has the edge. Concerns over whether Gholston would be flexible enough to drop into coverage would have applied to Adams too, as their short and long shuttle numbers are basically the same.
Collegiate Position
Both played as Defensive Ends in a 4-3 system in college.
Adams went to a 4-3 team and continued to play DE, whereas Gholston will play mainly as an OLB for the Jets in their 3-4 system.
Both were drafted (theoretically) by teams on the upward curve of a rebuilding process.
Conclusion: The fact that Adams still plays as a DE is a crucial difference. (It’s a shame too, because it would have made the comparison that much more accurate). Will this mean that it takes longer for Gholston to develop? Adams may be trying to bulk up or increase his strength, whereas Gholston’s primary concern may be more in terms of his mobility. In that respect, perhaps Gholston is closer to where he needs to be athletically and therefore can concentrate more on technique. However, the hip flexibility concerns and ability to drop into coverage are less of an issue for Adams.
Success at the Collegiate Level up to Junior Level
Gholston played in the Big Ten, Adams played in the ACC. It can be debated which is the stronger, but they are both BCS conferences, so warrant comparison.
Neither played much until their redshirt sophomore season
As a redshirt Sophomore, Adams had 35 tackles and 5 sacks although he wasn’t a starter. He had three other tackles for a loss. As a redshirt Sophomore, Gholston had 49 tackles and 7.5 sacks. He had 7.5 other tackles for a loss.
In his Junior year, Adams had 56 tackles, 9.5 sacks and 5.5 other tackles for a loss. As a Junior, Gholston had just 37 tackles, but 14 sacks and 1.5 other tackles for a loss.
Over their Sophomore and Junior seasons, the statistics compare quite well: Tackles – Adams 91, Gholston 84. Sacks – Adams 14.5, Gholston 21.5. Other tackles for a loss – Adams 8.5, Gholston 9.
Conclusion: One of the main knocks on Gholston is that when he wasn’t sacking the quarterback, he did very little else. Clearly, there is some truth to this, but it is encouraging to see that his numbers stack up pretty well against those of Adams and the fact that he had more tackles (and more big plays that weren’t sacks) as a Sophomore may suggest he had a slightly different role in his Junior year. As he will no doubt be asked to play a variety of roles for the Jets, this should stand him in good stead.
After their Junior Years
What happened next is crucially important. Both players sought a projection from the NFL draft advisory panel and while Adams decided to stay in school and was the 4th pick in 2007, Gholston entered the draft in 2008 and was the 6th pick.
Entering his Senior year, Adams’ scouting profiles looked very familiar. Great athlete, sometimes gets by on just athletic ability, sometimes quits on the play when it is run the opposite side to him.
Adams spent his Senior year honing some of these skills (in particular he worked at using his hands and developed some inside moves) and preparing himself for the NFL. Gholston is going to have to learn on the fly, as Adams entered the NFL with a year of extra experience under his belt. (Also, remember that Gholston only played one year of High School football as a defensive player, so may already have been behind on the learning curve).
For the record, Adams had 56 tackles and 10.5 sacks as a Senior, with 5 other tackles for a loss. For Gholston, who knows what he would have achieved as a Senior? His Senior year will instead be his rookie year in the NFL.
In his rookie season in the NFL, Adams did not record a sack in the first five games of the year and entered the week ten bye week with 1.5 sacks. However, he turned it on in the second half of the season and finished with 43 tackles and 7 sacks (including one in the playoff loss to the Giants). He looks well on the way to becoming an impact player and was deservedly named to the all-rookie team.
Conclusion: Adams had a slow start to his rookie year, but then came on strong over the second half of the season. How much of an impact does that extra year in college have though?
Attempting to Project the First Few Years of Gholston’s NFL Career
So, what can we expect from Gholston? Looking back at Adams when he was drafted, many of the same concerns were levied at him as face Gholston now. Can we expect his rookie season to be similar to Adams’ with a slow start and a strong finish? This may be a bit much to ask when you factor in the extra year of experience Adams had, but Gholston may get there quicker because he will be doing his adjusting to the pace and lifestyle of the NFL at the same time as he refines his skills. Maybe the edge he has in terms of athletic numbers will help him get there a bit faster too? And perhaps OSU have faced more top level opponents over the last few years than Clemson, which could also speed up his development.
If Gholston can make a contribution this year as a situational pass rusher and gradually increase his reps as the season goes along, I would hope that the Jets fans would see this as encouraging and clamor for him to get more playing time rather than call him a bust due to the lack of production.
For him to come close to or even match Adams’ rookie output in his second year should be enough for the pick to be considered a success. Furthermore, it should continue to be interesting to monitor Adams’ ongoing progress. Who knows, he may even surpass those numbers. My thought all along was that Gholston would not make much of an impact right away, but would start to make inroads towards the end of his rookie year, before (hopefully) making “the leap” in year two. This study has only served to strengthen that belief.
I do not know what to expect from Gholston, but at least – assuming you agree that the comparison is a just one – we should have some idea as to how he is progressing by comparing his progress to that of what should prove to be one of the league best young defensive players. Even if Gholston ends up a notch below Gaines Adams, he could be a pretty good player for years to come.
Feel free to tear me apart for writing this. I will return to the gags-and-sarcasm comfort zone either way.
45 Responses to TJB Rewind – Bent Gets Serious: Gholston v Adams
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The Ed(itor) says:
Gholston is a huge bust!
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Brad says:
He looked pretty bad this past season, but i will wait til the end of this coming year before i call him a bust. Hoping that Rex Ryan will use VG’s strengths to make him successful.
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Reprocity says:
Who was Adams competition when he got into the NFL? Gholston had to compete with Pace and Thomas and the way our D started out last year the reps were far and few between for him. when he did get in he looked lost. If he can’t play LB let him gain 10-15lbs and play DE and if can’t do any of that then he’s a bust.
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JustAGreenGuy says:
By making him carry things? or using him as a sideshow attraction?
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My Pet Goat says:
I think you missed the point Kyle. Bent is saying that Gholston’s year two is what you should compare with Gaines’ year one. Sadly, I’m not optimistic, but it would be an absolute game changer goes the Jets if the light bulb goes on this season. Good luck, Vernon.
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Bent says: I stand by this article, in which I drew the following conclusions:
1. Don’t expect too much in year one. (Check)
2. He should be mainly used as a situational pass rusher in year one. (He wasn’t…perhaps because there are no pass rushing situations in Sutton’s defense, but I still believe that was the best way to use him).
3. Adams had an extra year in college so 2009 is the year to compare with Adams’ rookie season not 2008, where – as noted above – he got off to a slow start but was strong in the second half.
4. His progress should be slower than Adams because he didn’t need to change position, so maybe even coming on strong towards the end of next year isn’t likely.
5. Even if he does do nothing in year one (he did) it’s too early to call him a bust until at least a few years have passed (I still believe this).Kyle – I had included the playoff game in the numbers above (and that should be clear from what was written).
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Bent says:
Note that I am not saying he won’t be a bust either…I was just trying to say that if you are expecting him to have a productive year one you’ll probably be disappointed, but if an unproductive year one does happen, this doesn’t necessarily mean he is a lost cause.
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RichSS says:
lets give him time. the league is full of guys who didnt make an impact there rookie seasons. lack of experiance and changing positions is hopefully the reason for a slow start.
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Was Adams a tweener?
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Zartan says:
Gholston was a product of the Farve fiasco. The guys contract had a lot of playing incentives. Jets had to pay Brett 12 mill and needed to save somewhere. of course this is all IMO. the contract stuffs true though.
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mole57 says:
The one thing I take comfort in is that Rex is the coach. Being in Mangini’s doghouse probably wasn’t the best way to motivate him. I also think Mangini is far more rigid in his schemes, and would prefer to force square pegs into round holes, whereas Rex will also look at the personnel and cater the scheme to highlight their strengths.
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Harvlis says:
Gholston is not a bust! Our coaching staff was a bust. Anyone who calls him a bust does not have a clue. No one is a bust, after one year. Especially, if they are not given a chance to play.
The coaching staff decided to change his position and make him a linebacker. He came in late and had to learn all the nuances of a new position. As we had decent players at the OLB position, he barely saw the field.
Stop panicing. Talk to me next year, after a year with a real defensive coach.
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burf says:
Nice analysis, & foresight, Bent!
VG was the guy I wanted, last year.
Even during the season, I thought Mangini was using him wrong. So, I was in VG’s corner… until recently.
On draft day, before the draft, I heard an interview of VG (couldn’t find it up on the ESPN1050 website).
That changed my opinion of him.
Numerous times he was asked about last season… about his expectations before it; his feelings about it; looking back; any regrets, etc.
Rex has his work cut out for him… VG had no expectations, other than learning what being a pro is. And he felt satisfied that he met his expectations, and had no regrets about last season. Media spin is one thing, but this wasn’t media spin, VG demands little from himself – - which is troubling. If he’s going to be a player, he needs an attitude makeover. -
tutman says:
Gholston was put in the wrong postion. He needs to play with his hands down.Thats were, he should play to his strengths. Put him back at DE, were he belongs.
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JesusRevis says:
It’s a good article Bent.
Anyone who is declaring Gholston a bust at this point is being extremely ignorant. This season will be much more telling than last.
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Gregory Rasputin says:
You guys who write Vernon off after one year are hysterical.
Johnny Unitas was released by the Pittsburgh Steelers in his rookie year for ‘being too dumb to quarterback’.
Look at Calvin Pace…He was a 1st round choice and he didn’t have a good year until his 4th year.
I do not know if Vernon is going to succeed over the next five years…but I can definitely say that many of you have the attitude of …
‘If the hamburger isn’t done after 1 minute…then throw it out!’
Get Real and discover some patience.
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Brett Justin says:
With getting Rex here and the new system i really am holding out hope for gholston in him coming around and living up to his potential…
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Warren Buffett says:
Gregory, the problem is that Gholston was the sixth pick in the draft and Pace was the eighteenth overall. There is a huge difference in money and expectations when you are drafted that high. That said I trust Mike Pettine to bring out some production out of him this upcoming season.
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Bent says:
Repo – yes. They were pretty much the same guy through three years in college.
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BubbyBrister/shovelpass says:
I agree with JesusRevis. It is too early to proclaim him a bust. And I was like most Jets fans that liked the pick at #6 last year. Casserly was vindicated for taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush after Mario’s second year, and so will Tannebaum.
And here’s a thought for you…if he had gone to the Pats instead of J. Mayo, is there any question in your mind that he wouldn’t be a player? That tells you all you need to know about Sutton’s and Mangini’s handling of VG. -
lou says:
I have to agree with Harvlis the coaching staff was horrible at bringing up players like Gholston. It seemed that once he was in camp Mangini did not like what he saw and quickly put him in his doghouse.
I can understand the resentment because of the high pick but it was known that he was a work in progress. I think that Rex can make him a player. We should see how he does this year. No bust yet!!!
Is Vernon still working with Lawrence Taylor?
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Kixworld says:
Guys lets just see what a real team of coaches can do with him before we past judgement. one thing for sure is keep VG away from Sutton that man can not be allowed to run this DEF so if we see no real player in VG by November with REX running the show than yes with out a doubt VG will than be a bust.
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Mrjetgreen says:
Gholston is going to terrorize QB’s this coming year*
* The above prospectus is “forward looking” and not a guarentee of future prospect performance. Buyers of the Gholston fund are warned that all or part of the above prospectus may be completely off the mark and therfore investors should seek additional advice before making any investment (i.e. Gholston Replica Jerseys). The fund cannot guarentee that either partial or complete loss of all investment value could occur.
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Cabras says:
COMBINE STUD = BUST—— Who heard of Gholston before the combine? He used his athleticism to make $$ good for him, but he will continue in a long line of draft day blunders that have plagued this team for 40 years.
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TOON2388 says:
Bent – very good piece. I think we will have our answer 4-5 weeks into the season on whether or not VG will be a bust, journeyman, average player, exceptional player, or a lean mean killing machine (my ode to Ox)
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SackDance99 says:
I thought the Mangini regime was good at incorporating rookies in the offense and defense. Revis, Harris, Lowery and DeVito all made positive contributions as rookies in the defense. VG was making a position change and fell into Mangini’s doghouse, so his development was going to be slow. But, he didn’t make any positive plays in training camp, pre-season games or in his limited playing time during the season (remember, he didn’t even look good on special teams). He may end up being a productive player, but I sure wish he gave us that 1 play that would give us some hope. I didn’t want to draft him and fear that he may be a bust and cap killer.
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I wanted Gholsten as I am a huge Big ten (Michigan) fan but to say anything other than VG was a complete waste this year is silly…..
I have hope but he did absolute zero last year. There were reasons that Mangini didnt have him on the field. We were searching for QB pressure and what did VG show at all? Even in the preseason when all he had to do was rush the passes he got shutout against nobody OT’s
To think that he is going to become a monster under Ryan is just as silly as calling him a bust now. He should improve but I am worried….. a little
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Jason says:
Cabras,
VG was a monster for the Buckeyes, if you never heard of him you don’t watch the big ten… -
I saw VG play a decent amount in college. There were rumors he killed J Long…not so. He beat Long for a speed rush sack and then beat two scubs for the other 2. VG also got dominated by Long in the run game in both seasons.
VG did have a lot of sacks but look at any film on him and he is a drag down no explosion tackler. He plays much slower than his 40 times except on a pure speed rush which will never work in the NFL.
He never runs thru a QB or ball carrier. He is a mucular athlete that has never shown that edge to dominate. I did want him thinking he could be coached up and dominate games…..but he has a long way to go.
Just listen to our new coaches. You have yet to hear them say they see the talent coming out. They talk about weight room strength alot and how he needs to translate that to the field… There is a better chance that VG will be a huge letdown than a bigtime pass rusher this year
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Cabras, Gholston was a two time All-American and he was voted by the coaches as the 2007 Defensive LIneman of the Year in the Big 10. Stop watching Soccer.
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kc. says:
BOTTOM LINE: the KID missed ALL of the OTA’s last year because of school policy,he had to CHANGE his POSITION,and he wasnt USED properly.YES,I woulda liked to see a LITTLE more production,but to call him a BUST already is just moronic.
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J.E.T.S Mex Mex Mex! says:
KC, best post yet….
Mangini, being the terrible coach that he is, decided to change the position he excelled in. BOTTOM LINE. You dont take a beast from college and confuse the hell out of him in the pros when the systems gets that much more compliciated. Its moronic. Hopefully he can recover from the damage that Mangini did to him. Same goes for Keller. He was a BEAST last year but Mangini could keep his ego and check and threw the kid into the doghouse. I cant wait for Rex to show us what hes got. The interviews with him are so refreshing. Looking back at it now, im glad we went with him over Cower or any of the other deuces. Rex is a pleasure to play for and a mans man apparently.
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I am confused by you guys yelling that Mangini changed his position?? He is not a 3-4 DE. He was drafted to play 3-4 OLB. He could put his hand in the dirt occasionally but he is an OLB in Mangini’s system and Rex’s for the most part. Just like W Mcginest was a DE at USC and a 3-4 OLB for New England.
Plus enough of the he missed OTA’s defense. He missed 2-3 weeks of practice. If he would gradually gotten better than that could be used but he didnt.
The reason he didnt play more is because he didnt earn the playing time. You guys saw what he did. he had a negated speed rush and tried to bull rush 320 lb tackles every time.
Again I wanted VG when we drafted himand think Rex’s attacking style will help but for you guys to blame Mangini for the kid sucking last year and he is going to become this All-Pro under Rex is absurd.
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If you played defense end in high school youd know right away that DE and OLB are pretty different. Just cause he was drafted to play OLB by Mangini, that doesnt make him an OLB. Plus youre comparing the 3-4 system of Mangini vs that of Belechik’s when you bring up Mcginest. No comparrison, not in the quality of the system or the level of teaching. Hope Rex can get him squared out.
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I never said the transistion was easy but the fact is that what he was drafted to be an OLB …. Youre not playing DE in any 3-4 defense at 260lbs….. just a fact
My point was Mcginest struggled early on but made plays. Something VG did not do….even a little…
Again guys I am not saying he is a bust I just think we are fooling ourselves to think Rex is going to turn this swtich on for VG when it appears it might not ever go on….At least to become the player we want him to be.
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brian311 says:
at this point, getting anything out of gholston will be a plus
i said it last year, it amazed me how mangini couldnt dump down the defense to allow gholston to make a play. i would have put him in the game during obvious passing situations, let him put his hand in the dirt, and tell him “forget everything else, your job is to destroy the QB”. if it is obvious that he couldnt make reads and decisions on the fly, why even bother having him on the field in situations where he needed to think?
i believe in rex and am confident he will put gholston in the position to make plays this year.
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**meant dumb down the defense
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AL says:
Do you consider Lamar Woodley a BUST? he did nothing his 1st year with da steelers & played in the same conference as gholston.
It takes a year to transition from a 4-3 DE to 3-4 OLB in the pros. We will know what he has with Coach Ryan & Co.
Hold your bust comments after this Year?
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fonzie says:
Mark down these words….
Jarron Gilbert will make an impact with the chicago bear defense this year.
He is a typical mangini player. We should have drafted him when we had a chance.
Our defensive line is doomed this year without giving Jenkins some help. If gholston produces he is not enough and the schemes won’t cut it. We need beef on the line!!!!
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James in TN says:
Look it up I hated the VG pick before we drafted him, I wanted Mayo. Who won defensive rookie of the year? Always take Players from the SEC not the little 10. Hope Greene is better than VG…..
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Broadway12 says:
http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2009/05/gholton_impressing_new_jets_je.html
this is an article in today’s Star-Ledger talking about VG and where the new regime sees him at
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miketaliaferro says:
As usual, money had a great deal to do with what we saw from VG last year, despite VG’s #6-pick contract. You could see clearly that Tangini felt they could get value from it in future years, and they were OK with that — they had other contracts to squeeze value out of now. VG wasn’t a bad player to have, just a stupid pick, since they already had players they were committed to at the spots where they saw VG being a factor. How dumb is that?
Remember: Tangini had just dropped that mega/monster contract on Pace, so VG wasn’t going to sniff that side. Also, Tanny was still smarting from that insane Brian Thomas contract, so he had to save face and wasn’t about to give up on him if Thomas so much as found the playing field in camp. To his credit, after the way the fans treated him that year (much like they are VG this year), Thomas stood up, fought off any imagined pressure from the sexy rookie, reclaimed his spot and actually played well the first half of the season before trailing off in his usual manner after the Tenn. game. So, no room for VG on that side. Ellis wan’t going anywhere on his side of the line, and Coleman was a “Mangini guy” who brought nothing to the table but always started anyway. So, nowhere for VG to fit, learn and grow, there.
I’m not downplaying any of VG’s flaws. They are apparent. I’m just saying that often there are many more things going into decisions we see made and not made than just one individual’s effort or lack of same.
One more point: you’ll agree I’m sure that there is a sorry trail of otherwise good players who’ve been forced to adapt to a new system they didn’t fit and failed, when they might very well have prospered had they played in a scheme that they WERE suited for. Two examples here are Vilma, who was a monster in a 4/3, but disappeared in Mangini’s new 3/4. Further, what could “The People’s Choice” Dwayne Robertson have done in the NFL if he had been in a 4/3 for his whole time in the league? He was just too small, and played too small for Mangini’s system; he wasn’t the Kris Jenkins that Mangini’s scheme cried out for, and DR got crushed in there, as the rest of the scheme collapsed around him. Does that mean he was a bad player? I doubt it. We’ll never know. He was shot by the time he went to Denver’s 4/3.
So, I for one am going to reserve judgment on VG until I see what Sexy Rexy and his staff can do with him, and what they devise for his strengths. Remember, this is the year that the Jets will need to begin seeing return for VG’s contract, so they’ll do anything they have to to squeeze value out of that pick.
So, we’ll see.
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This has nothing to do with the fact that mentally, Gholston is inept.
And, last time I checked, Gaines Adams had 38 tackles and 6 sacks in his rookie year.
Don’t get your hopes up. Last I heard, he was being outplayed in camp by an UDFA, Jamaal Westerman.
He is a bigger bust than Mammula.