2009 Schedule: The Illusion of Toughness
The arguments against the Jets in 2009 are largely predicated on what their opponents did in 2008, rather than what the Jets plan to do in the near future. It’s as if people believe the Jets have done nothing to improve since last season.
Quite frankly, it’s tiring. And it’s not even training camp yet.
This idea that the Jets face a difficult road because their 2009 opponents had a high win-percentage is built upon a fallacy. The presumed difficulty of the Jets 2009 schedule relates directly to how easy their opponents’ 2008 schedules were.
While the AFC and NFC South ranked among the most competitive divisions in 2008, a closer look at their opponents provides a slightly skewed portrait.
In the AFC South, the Titans went on a 10-game win streak to start the season until they faced a team with a winning record of their own. The Jets came to town, dominated, and ended their run.
Over in Indianapolis, the Colts finished out their season on a nine-game streak, with their most notable victory coming over the Steelers. But their streak took advantage of lesser competition in games against the Lions, Browns, Texans, Bengals, Jaguars, and inconsistent Chargers.
Sharing their division with the Texans and disappointing Jaguars contributed to a lighter load within the division. While the AFC South had moments of ferocity with games against the Steelers and Ravens, the majority of their pairings were less challenging. Especially when you factor in the weak NFC North.
The surprising Falcons and the run-heavy Panthers led the way in the NFC South, but the Saints and Bucs kept the race for the division interesting.
Despite the internal competition, their schedule placed them in games against the AFC West and NFC North en route to the postseason. For clarification, the AFC West and NFC North sent teams to the playoffs with 8-8 and 10-6 records, respectively.
The Titans, Colts, Panthers, and Falcons all represented their divisions in the postseason, and all four were immediately sent home. With the exception being the Matt Ryan-led Falcons, all four teams were heavily favored to advance.
What It All Means
None of this is to say that the Jets will have an easy trip navigating through these divisions. But any fear while looking down the schedule is premature.
The AFC East is a monster in it’s own right. In a league where a 9-7 team from the NFC can play in the Super Bowl, it hardly seems fair for the 9-7 Jets and 11-5 Patriots to have watched from home.
Such is life.
But based on the Jets’ offseason thus far and the seasons their 2009 opponents had in 2008, none of them stand out as being head-and-shoulders above New York. If anything, the competition is more comparable.
With personnel improvements to the defense, the handcuffs removed from the offense, and a staff that has all but guaranteed creativity, the focus should be on how many ways the Jets can surprise their opponents in 2009.
The Jets’ pitfalls in 2008 revolved around placing too much focus on what the other team does well, rather than establishing their own identity.
In losses to the Raiders and Broncos, Mangini concocted a pass-heavy offensive gameplan against teams that were susceptible to the run. In a loss to the Seahawks, Mangini failed to blitz against a patchwork offensive line, backup quarterback, and backup running back.
Those Jets would hesitate with their current schedule.
Rex Ryan’s Jets don’t care about the other team. As far as he’s concerned, they’re only in the way.
I think it’s about time we all start buying into the swagger, confidence, and bravado, too.
Filed under: Main Page, Opinion
Amen Angel,
I say this every year, people that waste time in the spring and summer focused on percieved strength of schedule are fools. Did anyone think this time last year that the Dolphins, Falcons and Ravens would be playoff teams or even tough tests for their own team to play. Of course not, and like clockwork at least half the prior seasons playoff squads fall by the wayside while six more teams that were written off rise up ans seize the opportunity.
To paraphrase Parcells, next year is not promised to us, and past performance is not indicative of future success. Each season is its own entity, shaped by players rising from obscurity to prominence while aging players take the opposite ride from the spotlight. Injuries happen (see Brady, Tom) that change the face of the landscape entirely.
I get it, people making predictions this time of year have nothing else to go on so the easy measure is to look at the schedule, seeing each opponent with imagined strengths or weaknesses based on what they did last year and the comings and goings of free agency and the draft. Only problem is these things aren’t actually revealed until the bullets start flying for real in September. Even more impossible to predict are the critical injuries that happen every year in pre-season. I’m supposed to spend my summer fretting about playing the mighty Colts offense the second to last week of the season when I don’t even know who will be suiting up for them that week? No thanks.
That is totally correct. We’re a 9-7 team and you can say we have been inconsistent, but we’re not a Detroit or a Cleveland. We’ve always had a talented team (some more than others) over the past few years, even with Herm Edwards, I mean we made the playoffs not TOO long ago. The one thing we haven’t had in a LONG time which would eliminate the inconsistency is a Franchise QB and a stable coaching situation. Maybe we have that now with Sanchez and Ryan, but only time will tell.
I agree with most of this post except for one thing. Angel, you write, “with the handcuffs removed from the offense…” Weren’t the handcuffs supposed to be removed from the offense when Mangini took over for Edwards? Doesn’t it seem like we are always waiting for the handcuffs to be taken off?
Happy B-day and R.I.P. Joey Ramone
Its hard to speculate about what this team is going to do at this point. We still dont know who the QB is going to be (and even if we have a sense, we have no clue what we have in either guy) and we have no idea if the people we have on defense will do well in Ryan’s system. Predicting a record based on the schedule is next to impossible.
jets4life, i was going?am going to post something on the lines of waht you said.
The jets in my Fan era has never had a Player Like Sanchez and never made an atempt for any elite prospects. Revis is Great but lack a little carisma. Last time we had a real coach was the big tuna. visualize and things will happen. When i think of sanchez i just cant see him Failing at all. theres no doubt he will be good, my question is if he can be great which i do kinda believe he will.
the FO failed this team and its fans time after time. i dont think that this year an think the sky is the limit for us.
we are not as good as the Pats yet but we are on our way.win or lose this season, the jets will play some great football. thats alls i ask.
Count me in.. Go Jets.. Go Kellen, Go Franchez, Go Rex.. Let’s kick some NFL asses!
Zenlaw the handcuff on offense was Brett. The Jets offense was fun to watch the previous seasons full of creativity but when number 4 came to town that stopped..no more trickery just Shotgun formation on 4th and 1.
It’s an excellent article with many good points I must say
Last season, the Jets actually won more of the tough games then the easy games. The Raiders, Broncos, 49ers, and Seahawks all beat the Jets last year. So the Jets actually had more trouble with the so called lesser opponents then they did with teams like the Titans and Patriots. In the end it means nothing.
Hey Angel – great stuff man. I was thinking back to last year and two things come to mind in terms of winning vs. losing games.
#1 as Kris Jenkins goes – so do the Jets (In Spite of Mangini’s conservative defensive playcalling). Bottom line last year, Jenkins was hands down the best player on the team – and it’s not really talked about… like… ever. If he was playing at a high level, all other 10 players on the field could of had “Barrett” on the back of the Jersey and our D would have still been good. He single handedly won the Buffalo game, stuffed Tennessee’s two headed rushing attack and did you see the second to last Defensive series in the Thur. nite Pats game? He lined up at DT in a 4 man front on a key 3rd down and tossed aside the G and sacked Cassell. The Pats got the ball back in a similar situation, and guess what Mangini did – put in a 3 man line and dropped 8. What happened? See Randy Moss TD.
The problem was, Mangini’s system put so much demand on him physically, he completely wore down and hurt his back. I’ve already seen quotes from him excited about not having to deal with constant double teams.
#2 Favre’s interceptions – as much as we all love to bash Favre – you have to admit, he was ridiculously good in the NE and TEN games. After that, it was an interception fest. 22 INT’s! 22! that’s absurd. Clemen’s or Franchez will be throwing 17-20 passes per game and won’t be throwing on 3rd and longs, or forcing balls. No way they throw that many INTs. That instantly makes us better.
Where am I getting at with this? TURNOVER MARGIN. Take away 7 of Favre’s interceptions and add about 10 more on defense because of the scheme.
The bottom line here – Take 9-7 and add a healthy Big Jenk, a vastly improved turnover ratio that is 15-17 more on the plus side, mix in a little Bart Scott and some Shonn Greene, maybe a little Lito Sheppard and you my friends… have a playoff team regardless of who you play.
Meant to say – Jenkins is HANDS DOWN (when healthy last year) the best player I have ever seen in a Jets Uniform. I’m only 29, but still – I have never seen one Jets player absolutely take over a game. #99 or Klecko maybe? I’m too young to remember them.
The two worst division by far last year were the NFC West and the AFC West, and the Jets played them both. The third worst division was the AFC East, where Miami, New England and the Jets all had their records bloated by playing the aforementioned West divisions. It’s disingenuous in the extreme to talk about how Indy or Tennessee had bloated records without mentioning that Miami, New England and the Jets played the three easiest schedules in the NFL last year (and the Jets still ended up no better than 9-7).
Yes, there are vagaries to the schedule every year, but this is a silly argument. The Jets’ schedule literally could not be any easier than it was last year, and by all indications, it’s not only more difficult this year, it’s much more difficult. (About the only hidden saving grace is that the schedule is filled with teams that are not as good defensively as they are on offense, which is probably a better situation for a team with a rookie quarterback.)
So Sean, you’re telling me two conferences who played against the Detroit Lions and the abysmal NFC North have teams that are remarkably better than New York?
It’s not disingenuous in the slightest when you factor in the order in which their games were played, the margins of victory, and any et cetera.
Ultimately though, the point is that 2009’s NY Jets look to be totally different than 2008’s. The defense was the team’s Achilles heel, and that looks to be totally improved in 2008.
If the secondary stops making QBs like Ryan Fitzpatrick resemble John Elway, then the things a bunch of one-and-done teams did in the playoffs don’t matter anymore.
What’s actually disingenuous is discounting the Jets on the merit of what their opponents did against equally unimpressive competition. What’s disingenuous is trying to handicap the Jets for losing Favre as if he didn’t throw 22 interceptions last season.
Angel, I agree with your article. The Jets control their own destiny. They have a team that should give the competition fits, if they are coached properly. I believe we will be okay on thd Defensive side of the ball — it is the Offense that worries me. Schottenheimer has alot to prove. He has been horrible, for the past two years. You can give me Offensive statistics but, I know bad Offense when I see it. In addition, the tough coaching decisions, under Herm and Mangenius, were terrible. Things like, when to go or kick on fourth down, when to try an on-side kick, when to attempt a field goal, controlling the game clock — let’s hope Rex looks more like Parcells than the last two coaches.
I’ll post the final DVOA rankings, which factor strength of schedule into account by charting every play every team runs against every opponent and then comparing them to how every other team fared against that opponent with that type of play:
AFC South
5. Titans
7. Colts
21. Texans
22. Jags
NFC South
6. Panthers
9. Saints
12. Falcons
13. Bucs
NFC West
20. Cardinals
25. 49ers
29. Seahawks
31. Rams
AFC West
8. Chargers
23. Broncos
26. Raiders
30. Chiefs
It’s not even comparable. That’s the reason why the AFC East’s numbers are so skewed depending on whether or not you take opponent into account. Here are the raw VOA numbers for the AFC East:
Buf: -7.6%
Mia: 21.1%
NE: 12.5%
NY: 9.3%
Now add in the strength of schedule adjustments:
Buf: -13.6%
Mia: 9.2%
NE: 9.2%
NY: 2.2%
Look at that drop by Miami- you can’t find a clearer indication of a team having their record inflated by an easy schedule. That said, the Jets, Dolphins and Bills all drop like rocks once you factor in opponents (the Pats drop a bit, but they had to play a first place schedule and don’t end up with as major an adjustment).
Anyway, the 2009 Jets do look to be totally different- their offense should be much worse. The defense doesn’t figure to be any better, though.
Hey seanmac, you seem to be lost.
this is the J-E-T-S blog.
Sean,
I don’t know what any of your stats or percentages mean. And truthfully, I don’t think they matter. You can play things by the numbers all you like. They’re usually inconsequential with real football.
Don’t get me wrong. I definitely respect the amount of research you pour into the game. But you don’t have access to the playbook. So you don’t know the subtle differences between different plays to determine which ones were used on different occasions.
Ultimately, what it comes down to is that the Jets had a different regime with a different philosophy in 2008. Mangini went into games the Jets should’ve won, and out-strategized himself.
Trying to determine how the Jets would figure against different competition based upon what was done in a previous season focuses too much on probability than it does fact.
How you figure the defense doesn’t look better is beyond me. A team that stopped the run consistently added more talent to the front 7 and completely revamped the secondary. The scheming is totally different.. so how can any of your projections effectively calculate?
The scheming is different, but I wouldn’t say it is totally different- Ryan was brought in because his scheme worked with 3-4 personnel; it’s not like you’re flipping back and forth between a guy who runs a Tampa 2 and a Belichick-style 3-4. If you look at playcalling tendencies, Ryan really isn’t too far off from what Sutton did last year:
Baltimore
Rush 3: 11.7%
Rush 4: 52.3%
Rush 5: 27.6%
Rush 6+: 8.4%
Rush 7+: 2.2%
Zone blitz: 8%
Sacks by LB: 66.7%
Sacks by DB: 13.6%
Jets
Rush 3: 24.1%
Rush 4: 44.8%
Rush 5: 25.1%
Rush 6+: 6%
Rush 7+: 1.3%
Zone blitz: 2%
Sacks by LB: 47.5%
Sacks by DB: 16.3%
There are differences obviously- no one rushed three more than the Jets, and Ryan used significantly more zone blitzes and generated more sacks from the linebacker spots. But those numbers are far more in line than, say, a team like Indy that rushes 4 on 81% of their defensive snaps.
And I’ll humbly disagree with you on the utility of the numbers- they drive football. Not to the same extent that they drive baseball, but I think you’d be surprised how seriously NFL teams take them.
Why does the Jets offense figure to be much worse? Clemens/Sanchez will have a DVOA significantly less than -2.2, way below replacement level? The running game will suddenly decline even though they have the same line and the same RBs and FB? Keller will get worse? Coles had a DVOA of 2.0 and was not consistently healthy. Stuckey, in contrast, had a DVOA of 24.1, albeit in a small role. I actually think the biggest loss on offense is Baker. When your biggest loss is an good blocking TE with 21 catches and no TDs, you’re doing ok. I don’t expect their offense to be much better — they needed to get a #1 receiver and didn’t. But I don’t see them declining significantly.
Sanchez currently projects as the worst starter in the league, assuming he goes all sixteen games. That’s not a slight on him, but he’s a rookie quarterback with one year of experience going up against a tough slate of teams with minimal offensive weapons. If he plays all 16 games, he projects to throw around 26 interceptions (which is about what Stafford would throw, but Stafford won’t be playing) to 16 touchdowns. So yes, Sanchez has significantly less DVOA than Favre if the projection is even close to accurate. The running game is also likely to decline- Jones’ numbers are set to go down, and in any event teams without dominant running backs that are good running teams one year usually tend to decline significantly the following year. In 2007, Tampa, Indy and Jacksonville were all top six backs, and last year none of them were better than 17th. That’s without factoring in the likelihood of injuries, particularly to the offensive line. The Jets were one of the two healthiest teams in football last year, and that usually regresses to the mean the following season. There’s reason to hope that Stuckey can come in and play well, but generally the projection knocks any offense that loses its #1 receiver, and in any event, the Jets don’t have anything in the way of experienced depth behind Cotchery, so their receiving output is almost entirely conjecture (and usually, when teams field inexperienced receivers, they get lousy production).
I have to be honest, I’m surprised at just how badly the offense projects-it’s making it hard for me to write a chapter on them-but I don’t run the numbers.
Angel,
All of this means NOTHING next year. I have a feeling the jets will not be as prepared to play as they were last year based off a rookie head coach’s inexperience. The way Ryan talks its like we have an offensive coordinator and a defensive coordinator without a head coach controlling the team. Amazing how things pan out when we get what we want.
Correction:
All of this means NOTHING this year!!!
Seanmac,
Oh please, the one thing your forgetting is that we are Jet fans! We don’t give a sh_t about DVOA or anything esle like that. All we care about is the season at hand, and right now we have a new coach and a new QB, so we’re real oportunistic. You and your Football Outsiders are like a wet blanket on what we care about.”Sanchez currently projects as the worst starter in the league, assuming he goes all sixteen games. Do you really think we want to hear this sh_t right now? Let me let you in on a secret, we don’t!!! We want to bask in the glory of having just drafted what we think is our next Joe Namath and we think we have the next Bill Parcells in Rex. In case you haven’t figured it out yet, we, the Jet fans only have the off-season to go by, so please don’t crap on it!
So true. I still remember clearly that after the initial horror of the Rich Kotite hiring had sunk in, I started convincing myself that maybe there was something to it, that he would bring that Eagles defensive toughness to the Jets and that his preference for big, physical players would make for a rugged offense. I actually got myself feeling halfway decent about the season, right up until that week one game against Denver.
Anyway, I suppose Jets fans should take solace in the fact that Mark Sanchez is going to be a very good player. It’s just not likely that he’s going to be very good next year.
Well said. I hope KC and Mark read this blog. Its time to be pros, boys.
Seanmac,
I actually remember that year vividly, the first game against Denver. Elway tore us apart, and it only got worse from there.
Anyway, sinse you’ve admitted the error in your way, you can buy me a beer and we’ll call it even. So where will we meet? lol.
ESD – seanmac is a Jets fan and even if he weren’t, he has as much right to post here as anyone.
He’s just reporting some numbers he didn’t even run himself, but happens to put a lot of stock into. Don’t shoot the messenger.
Obviously the 2008 numbers were run prior to getting Favre, so we can’t make a fair comparison. I recall that they were fairly positive though, so with the Jets finishing 9-7, I guess that was pretty accurate.
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Great piece… it echos my feelings that I hate all cautious outlooks on this team…. uuuu, Tom Brady is back…. uuuuu, we don’t have a #1 WR… uuuu, our QBs are inexperienced…. F#@! that. What fun is it to be a fan with kid gloves. Take all the rationalizations and shove them… I’m all in. This is the year, again. The schedule looks like we’re going to kick 16 teams square in the pants and I can start looking for rooms in Miami in February.
Sean,
Like I’ve said.. I respect all the research that goes into your numbers. The projections and the systems have worked for you, and that’s fine.
It’s the human element that interests me most. Rex is a rookie head coach, and I know there are going to be bumps along the way. But I have no doubt that this team will play harder for him than they did for Mangini.
In the Jets 2008 slide, the team lost faith when Mangini changed up the whole system after the Broncos loss. He lost confidence in what he was doing, and it reflected on the team.
The final numbers were a direct result of that lost confidence.
Your projections could turn out to be spot on. But Rex Ryan could turn them around completely. That’s what we have to have faith in as fans.
Maybe I’m too much of a Ryan guy at this point. But when he said he doesn’t care about what the other teams are doing, I believed him.
Bent and seanmac,
I’m not suggesting that I’m the supreme arbiter of Jets fandom.
I here enough people ripping into the Jets in daily life -especially living Texas- that I sometimes wonder why the only people that really care have to bring each other down with the “same old Jets” mentality.
I don’t care how many charts and graphs and spiffy stats you have. Unless they can accurately predict the out come of games, then it’s a just technical way of saying “same old Jets.”
I like to peruse FO myself until the Jets lose to a someone with worse DVOAs.
Statistics are a tool for measuring, not predicting. The further out you extrapolate – say out to September – the less accurate the extrapolation becomes.
Hey maybe I shouldn’t read the comments, but that’s the best part about this site.
I apologize for getting a little personal, but I take personally when some has a beef with my team.
Keep doing what you’re doing.
That’s cool, ESD. Just wanted to reassure you seanmac wasn’t some Pats or Fins fan running the Jets chances down with no basis.
Feel free to defend the Jets all you like. Let’s hope soon they start winning so you don’t have to anymore.
last year the steelers had the toughest schedule according to the preseason rankings and opponents winning %. and i think we all know how that turned out. its silly to try to say they we have a tough schedule even before training camp starts.
Angel,
I would disagree with your assessment, and again, the numbers help out. The Jets weren’t an 8-3 juggernaut that lost heart after Mangini made some sort of decisions that bothered them; they were a mediocre team masquerading as a top team that finished up by playing at the level they started the year at, only the bounces didn’t go their way.
You can use DVOA to measure how teams played in a given game, both as a team and at the individual and unit levels. If you ended up with a positive DVOA for the game (and a better DVOA than your opponent), then you “deserved” to win the game. You played better. More often than not, that also means you won, but sometimes it means you played very well but had a bad break or two and lost. It helps separate out teams that won a lot of games but weren’t as good as their record (Miami) from teams that had bad luck but were really excellent (Philly). Anyway, the Jets season is basically a bell curve- they weren’t very good early on, then they got hot for about four weeks in the middle of the season, then they went back to being not very good at the end of the year. The Jets didn’t play much differently against San Francisco or Denver than they did against KC or Cincinnati; it’s just that they lost the later games, while they won the earlier ones. So while injuries (and perhaps coaching decisions) factored into the exact way the Jets lost later on, for the most part they just went back to playing the way they had for most of the year.
If you look at the DVOA on Week 12 when the Jets were at their absolute peak, it still wasn’t any better than 12th in the league, and the gap between how the Jets were playing and how a legitimate powerhouse team like the Giants were playing was bigger than the gap between the Jets and a team like the Oakland Raiders. People got excited, but the Jets really never belonged in the conversation about the true contending teams.
seanmac31 – I can appreciate what you are doing, but it is a bit of a downer for our excitement. Curious……How did The Jets compare to the Cardinals last year?