Link: A Return to Glory in 09?
Clifton Brown writes for the Sporting News that the Jets among those teams who have he thinks has the best chance at breaking through to the playoffs.
Defense can take you a long way, and Rex Ryan’s defense should be solid. Kellen Clemens might win the starting quarterback job, but only if rookie Mark Sanchez proves he is not ready to handle it. It’s early, but even Clemens admits Sanchez has been a quick study.
“He is doing a very good job,” Clemens said of Sanchez. “He is a very smart kid.”
The smart money says Sanchez will be at the helm in December, when the Jets are fighting to make the playoffs.
Like every season, I’m going to watch it all, but for me a real run at the playoffs would be a great step this season.
39 Responses to Link: A Return to Glory in 09?
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DaveTN says:
Lots of reasons to be optimistic, but the fact is that the Jets record is a total question mark. They could win 10 games or 3. And Bassett is not a BOO BIRD. He’s pretty patient even when disappointed.
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nyckage says:
The safest prediction you can make right now is the JEts will win more than 7 games next year, on whether we can make the playoffs or go deep that’s a stretch with a rookie QB or KC
I just had a thought what if KC has a ProBowl type of season and takes us to the SuperBowl ( I’m just thinking, not a prediction, just an IF situation) what are we gonna do to him? Are we gonna let a SB QB go, with Sanchez and his Bagillion dollar contract to worry about?
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nyganggreen12 says:
if somehow, someway KC was to do that then he would be good trade bait. you can do exactly what the Pats did, sign him to a franchise tag and then trade him (hopefully better then a 2nd rounder). I highly doubt this’ll happen but if it did, it might only help us. It would also give Sanchez a year of study. But I’m also one of those people who thinks Sanchez will be under center come opening weekend.
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Jets-Fan-4-Life says:
Sanchez will be starting. I’ve been saying it all along that KC stinks as he lacks the confidence, talent, and swagger.
What KC should be saying is stuff like “Yeah the kid may be good, but I’m better and since this is my team the rookie might as well enjoy holding the clip board and washing my car”! But nooooo, he basically said…. I suck and since I’m not good enough to earn the spot on this team once again, I will be watching from the sidelines.
Woody and Mike please trade me to Eric for a 7th round draft pick since that’s what I may be worth at the end of the season. Otherwise the only other way I can be helpful to the team is by being Bart Scotts tackling dummy, and I’m afraid of that guy!!
Is KC the guy you want to lead your team…? I think not.
Go Sanchez, and GO JETS!
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igs says:
any word on june 1st cuts?
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Bent says: June 1st is not what it used to be. Hardly anyone has been cut at that time over the past few years.
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Anthony says:
Mostly on topic– this touches on a HUGE pet peeve of mine; please let me know if you follow as this took about 30 minutes to actually articulate:
All the talking heads tell you to stop trying to compare Sanchez to Ryan and Flacco (which is now A) cliche telling people NOT to compare then and B) I have actually not heard one person do), because their teams around them are superior to the Jets: Are they REALLY? No, they are not. The Falcons went 4-12 in 2007 before drafting Ryan, and ranked 29th in total points offensively and 29th defensively. The Ravens were 5-11, ranked 24th offensively and 22nd in points defensively (although 6th in yards allowed).
Yes, the Raven defense is better than any of the Jets units– but were those two teams in 2007 even CLOSE to the caliber of the 2008 Jets?
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thanks Bent. I still think the Jets should pick up Matt Jones for the record.
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DSmizzle says:
Anthony:
The Falcons were widely-considered that offseason to be competing with Detroit for the most dire situation in the NFL. So I agree with you. With a few KEY offseason additions, including of course Matt Ryan, they made a quantum leap forward. I can’t remember off the top of my head, but they added some key talent, I think including on the DL. Abraham is there as well. They also dumped a bunch of semi-talented players, kind’ve cleaned house. They had some talent on the roster, including Roddy White who had a very good season the year before, being one of the extremely few bright spots on the roster. The JETS are in far better shape going into this year than the Falcons were before Ryan went there. The article is fundamentally flawed — even if just about fantasy — because he was comparing this past season’s playoff Falcons team to the one that was in place when Ryan was drafted. That’s being awfully selective!
As for the Ravens … I’m going to say they probably had more of a bad season in 2007 and had a record that was worse than their talent, unquestionably so on defense. Their offensive line situation and TE and decent depth at RB (McGahee, LeRon McLain, et al) was intact. They really only lacked offensive playmakers and top-notch WR’s.
So the Falcons going into 2008 were absolutely incomparable to the level of talent the JETS have.
The Ravens … its an interesting argument. Their defensive talent in most spots going into 2008 was better than this year’s JETS team, although we now have 2 of their starters so those 2 positions are a wash (Leonhard wound up being starter due to injury). Hard to be better in the 3-4 than Jenkins, even if you are Haoli N’Gata. Rhodes is at least a “very good” player even though not as good as Ed Reed. Revis is better than any of their CB’s. Offensively, the JETS are better situated.
So while I think the Ravens’ situation is comparable to the JETS, I’d most definitely prefer to be Mark Sanchez going into this season as JETS’ starting QB than either of those guys. Saying anything to the contrary is unfair, BECAUSE HINDSIGHT IS 20-20!!! You have to ignore the actual results and look at the teams’ outlook before the seasons. The Ravens had some — SOME — hope of having a good year. The Falcons had NONE!
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Nikolas says:
I doubt it very much that Sanchez will be better than KC opening day. KC is way ahead right now.
Most likely KC will start the season and if the team does well he will be the QB driving the bus in December.
Sanchez will play if the season is almost done! -
rich says:
i wasn’t impressed at all by flacco, he held onto the ball and didn’t turn it over and i think sanchez is more of a ryan in flacco’s shoes.. schottenheimer is our OC, he’ll go out and try and win the game through the air.. sign plax!
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Jets-Fan-4-Life
I’m not saying KC will win the Job or eve ntake us that far it’s in IF situation, I just want to know what you guys would do to KC if He took us to the SB? Would you let a SuperBowl QB go, even if you have Sanchez?
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Zartan says:
you guys are not really getting the word from the FO but Clemmens is not ahead of Sanchez. If or when Sanchez like he said, Thinks faster then slows the game down he’ll be our QB which i think is a done deal. Read Jets-Fan-4-Life post.
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Lupz27 says:
Be careful with the Falcons they signed an all pro RB in Turner who is 2x better than Jones and has the break away speed of Leon, Abraham healthy for the first time since the 04 season, and a stud WR in White who the Jets have no comparison talent wise. Sign Plax and Gholston lives up to the Sack threat then we can compare.
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MSM says:
Guys its simple. The Falcons and Ravens quantum leaps on the offense came purely from the running games they both established. Michael Turner is a BEAST and the Ravens had 3 really really solid running backs. Granted Matt Ryan is amazing, his production is really a result of the running game that oppened up that passing game to breakout reciever Roddy White. If we can retain all 3 running backs we have, we will have one of the best running games in the league hands down and therefore should start Sanchez ASAP. Ill go even further and say that Keller can have a huge season if this is the case just because his size and speed make him a matchup nightmare and the perfect target for a rookie QB who will have the long game opened up by the ground and pound. I wouldnt waste my time on the KC experiment any longer. If we win this year, it will be because of our running game and the defense. We should downplay the QB competition as much as possible because in all honesty we shouldnt depend on it to win.
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Harvlis says:
With the talent that we have on both sides of the ball, it will be up to our coaches to guide us to the Super Bowl.
Our defense was very good last year, it was our coaching staff that fell off the table. After picking up some outstanding players, and two of the best defensive minds in football, in Ryan and Pettine, that unit should be outstanding.
Our offensive line has played together for one full season and came out of it healthy. If they can miraculously stay as healthy for this season — Sanchez will feel like his is driving a Bentley, when he lines up behind them. Our running game now has some depth, in Shonn Greene. Our wide receivers are young, talented, and hungry. If Schottenheimer utilizes Leon Washington and Dustin Keller the way that they should be used –this offense could be hard to stop.
Yes, Sanchez. You don’t move up in the draft, if you don’t plan on playing the man. The only thing that can stop him from starting is, if he looks bad in pre-season and that’s not going to happen. Sanchez is the real deal.
When he takes out New England, in week 2, there will be a run on Sanchez jerseys. Get yours early.
I’m with Clifton Brown — this is going to be our year.
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seanmac31 says:
Anthony,
The big difference between Baltimore and the Jets is that Baltimore had a ton of injuries in 2007 and were poised for a big rebound, while the Jets were the healthiest team in the league and are poised for a decline (even without taking the much harder schedule into account).
We’ve run the numbers a bunch of different ways, and while the Jets are no longer the worst team in the league, as they were last time through, they are firmly in 5-11 territory, with the worst offense in the league. So no, I’m thinking they’re not breaking through to the playoffs this year.
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JesusRevis says:
seanmac,
just a question out of curiousity, Do you truly believe in the formulas you use, or do you simply use them and record the results as part of your job? Do you honestly think the Jets are as bad as Pro Football Prospectus will predict them to be?
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You guys don’t get it, it’s an IF scenario, I don’t think KC is gonna win, it but let’s say he does, because Sanchez isn’t ready, WHICH I think he will,but KC takes us all the way, What would you do to him? I know it’s not gonna happen, but what would you do if you Rex and Mike, IF it happened?
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The rumors out of the Jet’s camp is that Sanchez had 5 very bad days of practice!!! 5 consecutive bad days of practice!!The game so far appears to be too fast for him! And some of you are going to the Superbowl???
It is summer and you all deserve an ice cream!! -
Led says:
No offense that returns 5 starters on an above average offensive line (not to mention two above average RB’s) will be “the worst offense in the league.” I’d love to see any precedent in the DVOA era where a team with a top 5 rushing DVOA that returned all 5 OL, the starting FB and both leading rushers was one of the 5 worst offenses in the league the following year.
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Dean Barbella says:
“Playoffs?! Don’t talk about playoffs! Are you kidding me? Playoffs?! I’m just hoping we can win a game, another game!”
- Jim Mora ~ This Bud’s for You!
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ridinmywave says:
“IF” KC took us to the super bowl, put up spectacular numbers, proved to be a winner and as talented as he should be, I’d ship sanchez’s @ss outta here before anyone of you could think up another corny nickname to give the guy.
The reason they get payed to play the game is the same reason we go and spend our money and root them on…..to WIN! Now why in the hell would you trade away someone who just brought you the first SB in 40 years is beyond me….why?…because he’s not a pre-modonna modeling for magazines and isn’t a public brown-noser?(I don’t mean to bash the man, I have nothing against him)…but gimme a break, I’m a jets fan before any individual player on the jets…well, maybe except for revis, lol.
I kno its “hypotheticaly” speaking, but its just disturbing to know that some of you would even ponder at the possibility to trade away clemens if he won us a SB, just so the jets trading up to get sanchez wouldn’t look like such a blunder?
It would even be a bigger shame on the FO if they did that, considering the fact that they didn’t even give clemens enought reps to see what he’s really made of. And it would come as no surprise why we haven’t been champs in so long, and have been the “second” team in NY and somewhat of a laughing stock, considering such a bone head move.
Don’t mean to offened anyone, but that type of mind state kinda bothers me, I just seems like there’s a thirst after image and publicity and not after WINNING…and why?.. because this is “ny”?…let’s be serious.
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Green Lantern #80 says:
OK Guys if Brad Smith is working his way out of favor with the Jets coaching staff why is he still here trade him and a draft pick for Braylon Edwards.
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When I bet the over/unders at the start of the season, I use the numbers, period. (I’m currently 8-1 over the last three years.) They’re obviously not perfect, and I feel more excited about the team than the numbers say I should, but it’s good to have them as a check. When the numbers say something very different than what you feel as a fan, you need to consider how much you are being moved by offseason optimism.
It also helps to have to write about other teams. Buffalo doesn’t have a great projection, either, and I can tell you from visiting the message boards, the fans there are just as certain that this is their year. It’s called the offseason.
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Green Lantern #80,
I agree with you about Brad Smith. He Can’t Get No Separation… No No No!
And, only Mangini and maybe the Argonauts want him, so offer a pick for Braylon Edwards and add Brad as a sweetener already!
Still, hoping we can land Plax or Matt Jones too!
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“When I bet the over/unders at the start of the season, I use the numbers, period. (I’m currently 8-1 over the last three years.) ”
Which means you picked the 9 bets out of a possible 96 that you were surest about! Smart betting.
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Finally someone answered my question the right way, I know KC is not taking us to the promise land and I’m pretty sure ridinmywave thinks either, but it’s and IF situation. Would you trade a guy who just took you the the Superbowl? Not saying he will cuz I think he won’t even start opening day.
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fonzie says:
I don’t think the Jets defense will be that much more spectacular than last year. I am speaking honestly here.
I don’t see the defensive line making it to the end of the season. I do see the secondary making a little bit of an improvement but was it really necessary to take Poteat, Barrett, and Elam and replace them with Leonhard, Sheppard, and Strickland. They look great on paper but why destroy the continuity without having a reason to get rid of them. Is this our third secondary coach in the last four years? Our second defensive coordinator in the last four years? Where is the continuity? Our linebackers huh?? Well we lost the fire (yes Bart Scott) with our defense when we lost Bryan Cox to Mangini. He was actually the emotion to our defense and mentored all of our linebackers and defensive linemen. Sorry Harris I don’t think you are going to make it the whole year man. You and Scott are just polar opposites when it comes to doing your work. You go quitely about your business, he well you know what he does. Only one of you can lead the defense on the field (all of this switching roles means nothing when 4th and short comes with the game on the line. Who is going to make the stop?). Lowery I sincerely apologize and I hope you and Gholston go to Mangini who can mentor you guys and bring the potential out of you. New York doesn’t have the patience for you guys.
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I can’t see how the Jets defense wont improve next year. Even if you don’ like the additions of Scott, Leonhard, Sheppard, Srickland, Green, and Douglas, you have to atleast account for the improvement from Revis, Pace, Harris, Rhodes, and hopefully Gholston.
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SackDance99 says:
Football Outsiders was wrong about Atlanta, Tennessee, Pittsburgh (I believe all were picked for last place in their respective divisions, as was Miami) and several other teams last season. In each instance, FO underestimated their defenses and effectiveness of their running games. The Jets have a much tougher schedule, but their defense is much improved and their running game should be better. That should be enough for, at least, 7 wins. Just 5 wins?!? I could see 4 AFC East wins alone.
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Atlanta was a special situation- they were so screwed up organizationally in 2007 that it was impossible to come up with numbers that reflected the organizational dysfunction (not unlike the way it was impossible to take into account the fact that the Saints played 16 games on the road and lived in a devastated city in 2005). Miami’s projection was made before they swapped out John Beck for Chad Pennington. Tennessee’s projection was based on the fact that their defense was very healthy in 07 and injuries normally revert to the mean; as it turns out, the Titans bucked the trend and stayed healthy (and elite) for a second straight year. Part of why the Jets’ offensive projection is so low is because they were so healthy on offense last year and are due for injuries. Sometimes teams avoid the regression for an extra year, as Tennessee did last year and Dallas did the year before, but more often than not it catches up the following year.
Anyway, there is no reason to implicitly assume that the defense has gotten better. I think a lot of that faith is simply put on the fact that Ryan is now the coach, but if you look at how teams fare in their first year after hiring a defensive coordinator as head coach, they don’t generally improve much on defense (I’m still early in the research on this, but the trends don’t look good unless you hire from within). Certainly neither Marvin Lewis nor Mike Nolan were able to bring anything resembling a Baltimore-style defense to their new digs, especially not in year one. The Jets have more pieces to work with, but they also have a lot of obvious holes on the defense, and aside from Scott, I don’t think they really addressed them. They still have no cornerbacks past Revis. They still have no pass rushers. They still have no depth to counteract a Jenkins injury (or any injury along the defensive front line).
Anyway, the whole AFC East projects as a division whose records were massively inflated by their schedule last year. Pats go 12-4, Miami goes 6-10, Jets 5-11 or 6-10, Bills 4-12.
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Led, I tend to look for teams where there is a difference of 2+ games between the line and the projection. Last year I passed up the under on Cleveland to take the over with Green Bay, which proved to be a mistake, but the Packers actually outplayed their record by quite a bit and ended up with some bad luck (as did Philly, though they obviously were able to still get into the playoffs and show what they could do).
San Diego, Seattle, Jacksonville are all good looks for the overs this year (though I prefer betting unders, as you can get screwed up with injuries for the overs). Arizona and Miami both look like good unders at the moment.
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seanmac,
My biggest disagreement with your analysis is on defense. I know you don’t like Sheppard’s numbers, but to me he is a classic “disgruntled” player that needed a change of scenery. He was a top CB from 2003-06 and has sucked since then. I just don’t think players fall off of a cliff so precipitously without something else going on. Also, I think Leonhard is a clear upgrade over Elam.
As for your new DC analysis, Rex is bringing 3 players steeped in his system as starters. I expect that should have more of a transformative effect than a typical situation. As for pass rushing, that’s tough to tell with a blitzing defense. For instance, who knew in 2006 that James Harrison would become one of the best pass rushing 3-4 ROLBs in football? I suspect that one of the Jets LBs will get in the teens in sacks, I just don’t know who.
If I had your opinion that the Jets wouldn’t generate a pass rush, then I might be more negative. However, that affects the pass defense. I fail to see how the run defense will be worse. A healthy Harris and Scott, along with Big Jenks in the middle, will make running up the middle against the Jets near impossible and running wide on a 3-4 is hard. If the running game is taken away, then defensing the pass gets a lot easier.
Also, what about the Jets’ running game? FO has to predict multiple injuries on the OL for the running game to be worse. But, if the OL is intact, the running game will be top five and, maybe, no. 1.
As far as I’m concerned, the only issue the Jets have that would prevent them from having, at least, 7 wins is the QB position. Competent QB play and I see 9-11 wins.
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Sheppard might be. But there’s no reason to assume that he will be. He hasn’t been a good player in three years, and it’s not very often that guys who have been terrible (not bad-terrible) for three seasons turn around and play great football. Leonhard had a good year in Baltimore and a dreadful year in Buffalo. The quality of the personnel around him is closer to Buffalo’s, so it’s up to Leonhard to demonstrate that he wasn’t a product of his environment.
The run defense should be fine so long as Jenkins plays at a high level, but he’s gotten worn down and/or injured every season for the past several years, and he’s unlikely to be healthy all year this year. When he’s not playing at top level, the rest of the run defense falls apart.
FO does indeed predict multiple injuries on offense, as the offense was the league’s healthiest last year. That said, the running game is dependent on the passing game (as you argued last year when pushing for Favre and the impact he would have), and in any event, running games fluctuate much more than passing games do. Teams that are excellent running one year are poor at it the next year all the time.
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The running game is dependent upon the passing game, but OL continuity might be just as important. You have roundly criticized Eli Manning, so I will note that since Chris Snee and Kareem McKenzie joined O’Hara and Diehl, on the Giants in 2005, their running game has been in the top 7. The RBs have changed, Eli’s performance has fluctuated, but the solid running game has continued. Denver had a similar run earlier this decade (with Nalen, Neil and Lepsis, et al.) and, again, the RBs changed and the QB performances fluctuated, but Denver’s running game stayed potent. So, with the run-blocking core of Faneca, Mangold, Moore and Woody, if they stay intact, I have no reason to believe, even with spottier QB play, that the running game will not be potent. Plus, I think the Jets running game will be fine even with an injury or two as long as either Mangold or Faneca remains healthy.
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Well, let’s hope so. But there are no guarantees. Everyone would have said the same thing about Cleveland, who was third in the league in Adjusted Line Yards in 2007 and was bringing back their entire starting OL intact. Last year they were 21st in Adjusted Line Yards. What looks good in August doesn’t always look so good in December.
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Santana says:
TO on the 4-12 Bills… now that will be fun!!
and the smart money also says that they will not get far in the playoffs with a rookie QB with very limited experience and I hope that if you are right, that I am wrong! lol . I know that you are wishful thinking in this regard but lets allow them to compete on the field before we make brash statements! If CLEMENS does well the BOO BIRDS like you will still call for Sanchez. I hope4 that BOTH QBs show well and that the best QB plays a full season and does great for us. Rather then pulling for either QB, I pull for the JETS! As thier QBs go, so goes the JETS! I do not care which QB gets us to the SB as long as we get there and win it! I think that some fans would still call for CLEMENS head even if he accomplished the aforementioned! That is the way it is for some!