Looking Deeper At Brandon Marshall
A few more things about Brandon Marshall that may slow your roll on the desire to acquire him. If you look at his numbers on Football Outsiders, he’s really not as good of a receiver as he’s cracked up to be.
2006 – Brandon Marshall
37 Targets, 309 Yards, 2TD, 54% CatchRate
(Unranked)
2007 – Brandon Marshall
170 Targets, 1325 Yards, 7TDs, 60% CatchRate
DYAR Rank: 28th DVOA Rank: 55th
2008 – Brandon Marshall
181 Targets, 1266 Yards, 7TDs, 57% CatchRate
DYAR Rank: 42nd DVOA Rank: 58th
The CatchRate is the real issue for me. The top receivers in the league in a given year generally average in the 63-66% range, and Marshall has been well below that in all three of his years in the pros. Add in learning a new offense and who knows what happens. So, for the sheer amount of opportunities thrown to him in 2008 in a full season with Jay Cutler, arguably one of the best young guns in the league, that’s all he came up with? There’s only one other talent, Andre Johnson who had near as many balls thrown at him in 2008, and he ranked tops in the league.
2008 — Andre Johnson
170 Targets, 1575 Yards, 9TDs, 68% CatchRate
DYAR Rank: 1st DVOA Rank: 5th
And who did Johnson have throwing to him … Sage Rosenfels? I haven’t seen enough of Marshall to make a real statement on his game, but my point is that he’s doing less with more, and the more I look at it, the more I wonder how well it will translate to the Jets. A cantankerous WR with a history of violence off the field, and legitimate questions to his production on the field moving to New York to work with a clean cut rookie (most likely) who’s still getting a handle on the offense. To me, it doesn’t sound much like a winning combination.
79 Responses to Looking Deeper At Brandon Marshall
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This si why you consider Plax instead of these younger guys. Plax might be a knucklehead but he makes big plays and totally changes an offense, Just go ask Eli!!
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Jonathan says:
i’ll never forget what ernie accorsi said in his book, the GM (to paraprhase): if a kid was ever a good kid, he can be a good kid again. but if a kid was never a good kid, he never will be.
call me old-fashioned, but i’d like to believe my team is the good guys. and i’ve always been glad that the jets are not the raiders or even cowboys. let’s not confuse matters by holding our noses and acquiring troublemakers who will surely give us headaches.
i never want us to have to utter the phrase “addition by subtraction” on this blog.
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JustAGreenGuy says:
I love Marshall’s ability. TO has a lot of drops, but we don’t crucify him for it. Marshall is still developing and could become better. I doubt he will ever be Fitzy or Andre, but he would be a nice target, that would demand double coverage. Sadly, his off field issues are too much for me and in the wrong ways.
Sign Plax for a year and look to the draft.
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Le'Sean Roberts says:
This is the kind of statistics a cigarette company would drool over and give to the masses. That doesn’t mean Plaxico better than Brandon Marshall. Plaxico doesn’t command as much double coverage as Brandon Marshall. Also that’s only “three seasons for an elite wide receiver”….It’s not like he’s Clayton in Tampa Bay. This is negligible statistics, with Eddie Royal, Stokley etc. Even the season before when Javon Walker went down, teams doubled him so much. A guy like Cotchery would enjoy his presence.
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Vinny Interceptaverde says:
I don’t care how good he is, or how much better he will make the Jets.
He beats women, specifically his girlfriend! I don’t want anyone like that on the Jets. It’s worse then shooting yourself, and yes it’s worse then dogfighting. I’d rather lose with dignity then win with no regard to morals or ethics.
Anyone who wants Brandon Marshall on the Jets is saying that they care more about winning then dignity and respect. If that is the case, you should just go and be a Patriots fan.
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Cabras says:
If you want to sell tickets you sign guys like him and T.O. If you want to win Super Bowls you draft a team based on a plan. We have a very serious “fantasy” minded front office, not really sure what their plan is yet. Hope they have it figured out.
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the front office hasn’t bit on enough so-called fantasy opportunities to deserve that knock.
they’ve basically turned-over the entire roster for the better in about 3.5 years, which wasn’t easy, and i finally see the light at the end of the tunnel.
this is a good roster that seems like it’ll be legit contender a year from now.
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jets4life says:
I would rather have Plax then Marshall…Marshall seems to have a problem every single year…
Actually I’d rather give the young WR’s a shot b4 I get any of these guys
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Bent says: “i never want us to have to utter the phrase “addition by subtraction” on this blog.”
I just looked it up…you were the 19th person to utter that phrase on this blog.
It’s official. I have too much time on my hands.
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bent, thanks for that. amusing, if not useful.
i suppose my retort could be that i said “have to” and that those other 18 wanted to use the term.
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Harlan Lachman says:
For all those who want to sign Plax for one year: Do you think he and Rosenhaus are stupid?
Drew (and likely even Plax) knows this is his likely his last contract. Drew is going to recommend his taking the highest guaranteed amount spread over the longest term. For example, guaranteeing him 8 million over one year will not be as valuable as a two year deal at $7 million per year wiith $8 million guaranteed (half each year). Such a deal will, in the long run, pay him more because it having to pay four mil likely means they will see the additional three mil in the second year as a cheap date. Such a structure turns the deal into either a $10 mil deal for one year or, more likely, a $14 million deal for two years.
IOW, I think Plax, for all his baggage will command a multi-year deal with guarantees. All it takes is one team looking at the salaries of a Fitz, Coles, etc. to realize how cheap Plax will be.
Who wants them apples.
harlan
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greene says:
plax can suck my left ********
everyone likes to win, but some of us just don’t like stupid/reckless people.
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and i agree with Harlan, why the hell would plax sign a one year deal? He may be as stupid, but he not a drama queen like TO. He’s a much bigger demand.
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Brett Justin says:
we hsve to get marshall this kid is the real deal and not only would complment cotchery and keller amazingly but he would help sanchez progress better also… COME ON MIKE T THE MARSHALLL!!!!!!!!
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Mr. Jet says:
He will sign a one year deal because no team in their right minds will sign him long term with the very real possibility of jail time next year. He has zero leverage. HE SHOT HIMSELF IN THE LEG. That being said…
GO GET HIM PLEASE
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You sign a one year deal, because if the league is smart they don’t want to sign a guy for a multi year deal until his trial for a gun crime is handled. That would be standard in the real world. In one year he can come out and show he has smartened up, play well and be free to pursue the largest pay check offered to this new hard working, reformed Plaxico. Rebuild his PR. The idiot shot himself with an unlicensed gun at a night club. THERE IS A FRICKIN SAFETY!!!! Anyone that dumb needs their image fixed.
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Scott/NY says:
I would prefer Plax instead of Marshall or Edwards or Bouldin, and definitely over Jones. Plax would be the perfect compliment to the renegade persona, “us against the world” mentality Rex Ryan is preaching. Plax, Cotchery and Keller. WOW!
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Harlan,
There is close to zero chance Plax signs more than one year deal. He hasnt played in over a year and will be set for trial next summer. He will take the most money for 1 season……then he and his agent will cross their fingers.
We can make cap room ang hopefully get the best WR we can for 1 season ….. then hope the kids or the drafty brings us a replacement.
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Exactly Scott/NY….
Just say it out loud and its like… woooowww
Plax, Cotchery, Keller, Thomas Jones, Leon, Shonne Greene, and Sanchez.
How do you stop that? Whats the game plan for that?
AMAZING
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Pick your poison. Who do you double team if you’re the opposing defense? Everyone mentioned is solid receiver across the board as well as blocking downfield. I’m also totally comfortable with Stuck playing the slot where he would cause much havoc for anyone covering him. Then add the ball control factor. It really wouldn’t matter who is taking snaps under center at that point.
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If it is Plaxico then it would be a true west coast offense; he’s not going to burn anybody. I understand quite well about the (alleged) domestic incidents; it seems sketchy on both sides. However I just can’t getaway from the fact that it’s Brandon Marshall man. One of the best receivers I’ve seen in a while. He might be more athletic than TO. It’s just to damn tough finding an elite receiver in the draft (personally I think Hakeem Nicks has a really good chance because of his toughness and pure catching ability).
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igs says:
This guys is bad news. He beats up women and Basset just exposed his low catch rate. Forget about it. Another part of replicating the tendencies of championship teams is that you don’t bring bad news players around your locker room. See how Dallas loves to sign guys like Pac Man Jones and T.O. and see where it’s gotten Dallas? All talent and nooooooo playoff wins. Why would you knowingly bring someone like this around?
And no, smoking some maryjane is not as bad.
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Hey Bent, off of the subject a little bit, but how could Mark Sanchez’s most expensive cap hit be 5 million in 2013 when he is averaging 10 million a year in his contract. Do rookie contracts not affect the cap in the same way that normal contracts do?
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Sketchy? It’s every freakin women he’s ever been with? What’s sketchy about that?
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majasko says:
Cabras,
you’re wrong; yes a team should have a plan But no team can win a superbowl in this day and age without aquiring free agents. the window does’nt stay open long enough for a team to develop all the pieces it needs. even if you could draft your entire starting roster at one time; they would never develop at the same rate.
look at the patriots they won three superbowl having drafted only one of their starting receiver( Troy Brown)
Thank god some of you fan are just that, Fans and not Gm.
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Majasko,
The Patriots built a Team drafting players, we build a team trading draft picks. Look at the perrenial playoff teams, they all have more than half of their roster with drafted players that are under 30. I agree that in today’s NFL you need to sign free agents, but the good teams usually sign “depth” free agents rather than trying to sign key starters. If you look at the free agent market there is a history of under achieving after the player comes to a new team, I am sure there are a few exceptions, but for the most part it is usually alot of hype.
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Igs, sorry if I was misinformed, if that’s the case, damn! The one thing that I would argue against, is his low catch rate. On the field he’s quite a formidable receiver to cover (in terms of size and speed), and is still very productive for a three season receiver…that’s damn good for me. He’s definitely no Clayton win the Buccaneers. I wouldn’t expect him to do everything. If you have quality receivers around him they should pick up the slack, like Eddie Royal, the TE and Stockley/ Cotchery, Keller, etc. For that low catch rate I believe that’s on Cutler’s gun slinging ways
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Kyle says:
Say what you want to say about Marshall.
Namdi Ashomugha called him the toughest WR to play against in the NFL. That is enough for me. I want him on the Jets now.
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Cabras, if you haven’t been paying attention, there’s a decent chance that the Patriots defensive line will not look the same. I don’t believe they will be able to afford Wilfork (not showing up to OTA’s, etc. and Seymour is now looking for more money. As a bonus one of their offensive linemen (I can’t remember who) is also looking for money. You can’t pay all of them. This would explain why they snatched up Ron Brace in the 2nd round….well as for depth too.
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Still, it’s important that we don’t throw any shade on what the guy’s done off the field. This was the full monty all out attack, fist fight assault with 3 women that he probably outweighed by 60, 70 pounds. We have to think about if those women were our mothers, our sisters and our daughters. Then would we be so enthusiastic about adding this guy to the Jets roster?
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KYLE im with you on that..
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Why do people always refer to Pats when it comes to the draft??? I dont get it. Their entire offense is made up of free agents right now. Thats the reason they are one of the best offenses ever. They have Welker, Moss, and Galloway all signed free agents.
The Jets have had incredible draft selections too the past few years. Aside from Vernon, we got the best corner in the game, solid o-linemen, an explosive tight end, and likely one of th emost dangerous all around players in Leon. Go down the list, we have a ton of home grown players that have become really good over the years.
Im tired of hearing about the Pats and how incredible they are at drafting. Just because they draft more players, it doesnt mean their draft picks as a whole have been significantly better. Just because Tom Brady turned out to be the Derek Jeter of football and won a bunch of rings for them, it doesnt mean they are the example for how to draft. Tanny has done a pretty impressive job if you ask me.
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Le’Sean,
My point exactly they had an aging line and drafted a player instead of signing a free agent. We have many areas that lack depth and traded away picks for Lito Sheppherd? not sure that is a plan or not.
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look i can care less about that stupid catch rate crap all i know is that he has over 100 catches the past two seasons and over 1200 receiving yards the past two seasons and by the way he went to the pro bowl last year THATS ALL THAT REALLY MATTERS OK
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Cabras,
I not saying you don’t draft. but you’re still wrong about the pats not signing starter. look at their starter from those championship season; i.e Rodney Harrison, Corey Dillon, Ted washington, Rosevelt Colvin David Patton,Antowain Smith, etc. all free agent and all starter.
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I mean these guys (Seymour and Wilfork) I believe are still under thirty. Well Seymour will be be thirty in October, but still elite. They have championship and playoff caliber. Given what Jenkins was payed I believe Wilfork will go desperado on Patriot town (take the bank), also remembering Seymour. I believe you build through the draft when you’re rebuilding; if you’re a legitimate top contender every year like the colts, it really doesn’t apply indefinitely. You bring in veterans that know what to do when it comes to the big time.
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MSM,
Yes Tanny has picked about 10 picks that I would say are part of a base, but there are too many areas that are too thin, OL. WR, TE, the defense signed free agents. It is not only the Pats, look at Philly, NYG, PITT,
and others that consistently compile high numbers of draft picks. If you pick 8-10 players and half don’t pan out you still have 4-5 players, if you pick 3-6 players and half fail you have 1-3 players. -
Majasko,
The only thing that you do not point out about the Pats is that the free agents that they signed were mostly second tier, except for Colvin who they pursued. The rest of the players were either considered trouble (Dillon) or on the downside.
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SackDance99 says:
Tanny trades draft picks for a purpose: to move up in the draft and take players that they need and to facilitate trades. Tanny also has traded down to get additional picks in order to rebuild, like in 2006. To say that the Jets don’t have a “plan” is ludicrous. Nearly every 1st and 2nd round pick has turned out to be just not good, but upper echelon NFL players, except for VG and Clemens. That’s 5 of 7 picks over 3 years. Name a team that has done better? Not the Pats. From 2006-2008, the Pats had 5 1st or 2nd round picks; the Jets had 7…showing that the Jets have a preference of trading lower picks or players to get to the top of the draft. Of the 5, only Mayo is on his way to being an upper echelon NFL player. I’m no Merriweather fan and Terence Wheatley, Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson are fringe NFL players. Compare that to Brick, Mangold, Revis, Harris and Keller. The goal of the draft is to obtain NFL starters, not training camp fodder and guys for the practice squad. IMO, Tanny has been much better that Belichick/Pioli at drafting. Ironically, IMO, the Pats have done better with free agents than the Jets, which is exactly opposite of what many on this blog believe. Oh, and in case you think I’m leaving out great players that the Pats took from rounds 3-7, well I count 2 good NFL players: Gostkowski and Callaghan. The Jets can match that with Leon, Stuckey (who, along with Brad Smith, are likely better than every WR drafted by the Pats over those years) and Lowery (who, IMO, is better than every DB the Pats drafted over that period). And, the Pats drafted 6 more players over that span.
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Cabras,
I respect your approach… and it makes logical sense … but this was really the only year we had such few drafts picks. And the reason was so we could draft a franchise QB and a possible stud RB. I would trade up for Keller again if i had to. Theres a lot of draft moves that i would still do over having known the results. I get your point, I just dont believe it makes a difference in the long run. Almost all of our draft picks the past few years have panned out perfectly. Way higher success rate than the multiple picks of the other teams. I mean you used the Giants as an example but they havent drafted better than us in my opinion.
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Bent says:
“Hey Bent, off of the subject a little bit, but how could Mark Sanchez’s most expensive cap hit be 5 million in 2013 when he is averaging 10 million a year in his contract. Do rookie contracts not affect the cap in the same way that normal contracts do?”
Jeff, rookie contracts do have slightly different rules, but the numbers you are using do not take into account incentives/escalators/other bonuses. I assume you got the breakdown of his contract here:
http://nyjetscap.com/marksanchez.html
Well, the cap numbers there add up to less than 20m, which is not only less than the 50m total value, but also less than the reported 28m in guarantees. That’s because I think all of the money due in the first three years is guaranteed, so all that is included in those numbers is the base salary for now. That makes sense.
You will note, however, that it says he will get an estimated 17m in easily attainable incentives over the first three years. This is on top of the 10m in salaries due over the first three seasons. I guess that’s more or less where the 28m in guarantees comes from, because if the easily attainable incentives are things like roster bonuses (ie all he has to do to attain them is be on the roster) then they would be reported as guarantees, even though in theory they could release him before that was due (although that would never happen and it may even be written into his contract that they can’t).
The larger part of that 17m is likely to be in year 2, simply because they can’t fit it under the rookie scale in year 1, so they’ll give most of it in year 2, rather than year 3, to make up for that fact.
Year two’s actual cap hit is likely to be around $15m, I reckon.
Jason may be able to comment in less general terms if he sees this. I agree with the layout of the numbers, although I note that on the 2010 salary cap page, releasing Sanchez is shown as a potential saving of 22m when it should be minus-22m.
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Thank you Sackdance…
Enough is enough. I hate that the Pats have become the Draft day examples for some reasons. Its a joke. We have had such better moves the past 5 years. As a whole, id say we are one of the top drafting teams in the league. Look at our success rate. Theyve all become starters for the most part.
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seanmac31 says:
Brandon Marshall simply isn’t as good as people think he is. He accumulates good raw statistics because he gets a ton of balls thrown his way, but his catch percentage is terrible. That said, the argument isn’t whether Marshall is an elite player or not, but rather whether he can be helpful here, and what would be an acceptable price to pay in order to pick him up.
The Jets should make inquiries, but I don’t see them being a part of the final bidding, especially if several teams come in strongly. He’s just not worth the likely compensation.
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Cabras, you got the breakdown just right. We’ve gotten some good players but there’s a reason why we’re in a position where the Jets are even considering signing any of a numer of troubled WRs. And it comes back to the draft.
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Seanmac31, you say Marshall isn’t as good as people think….then let’s see who do have in mind that’s better than him, just to see where your going. Outside the legal issues, the guy is still rising. I can’t stand this Nicorette statistics. He’s still young, so comparing him to Andre Johnson is realistic.
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I meant isn’t realistic.
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Sackdance,
You forget that the Jets are usually at the top of the draft, while the Pats are usually at the bottom.
2005 NY trade 1st to Oak for TE. NE 32nd Mankin
2006 Jets #4 and #29 NE 21st
2007 Jets 14th (Revis, best pick in 40 years) NE 24th
2008 Jets #6 (Gholston) NE #10 (Mayo) ouch!
2009 Jets #4 Sanchez NE #34MSM,
Starters are great as long as the team actually wins.
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MSM and Sackdance,
I agree that the Jets have done a good job of drafting the last few years, but I wonder if that will continue now that Mangini is gone. I think Mangini had to go as coach, but he was good at judging talent. It will be interesting to see if the Jets continue to draft well without him.
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You guys are reading this statistic wrong. You should be looking at the “activity derivative”, and not the percentage. It’s not a batting average like in baseball. We’re not talking about Albert Pujols. For 2006 with a low amount of passes thrown to him, conventionally the percentage would be high. Think of guys like the favourite Miles Austin, Breaston, even Bryant Johnson when he was with Arizona. Logically as the activity goes up so will the inconsistency rate. Remember where only talking three seasons; such a statistic is inconclusive. Great receivers will not be targeted that often. Between the first two seans we have a jump or 133 attempts, then 11 more attempts the following year. Standard deviate all you want it will show the same damn thing.
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ooops I meant great receivers do get targeted that much.
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Vinny,
I think its safe to say that Rex will be able to evaluate talent just as good, if not better, than Mangini based purely on his long established career in the league and his pedigree. Its a gut feeling call obviously but I think most would agree that we are ok on that front. Especially for defensive talent which is so key.
Cabras,
Starters are starters. I cant say that the Jets have been a better team or have had better coaching or a better QB (because they havent). I could however argue the concept that they have mastered the draft (which almost everyone seems to belive). We trade a lot of our picks because we have sucked for a while and have had top picks that people demand. Its just a reality of our positions within the draft on a year to year basis. The pats can draft more players and take more chances because they have a better base. That gap has closed quickly though if you ask me. They are signing free agents like crazy the past couple years because for the most part those have been the ones that have made the teams successful. On the Jets, its been the draft day picks that have excelled most and implented a really solid base.
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Cabras,
First, 2005 was not a Tanny draft, so throw that out. Second, you’re not accounting for the fact that the Jets drafted first round picks after the Pats twice and ended up with Mangold and Keller. The point is who drafted better. For instance, in 2006, the Pats chose Maroney over DeAngelo Williams and Joseph Addai…D’Oh!!! Then, to compound the error, they took Chad Jackson and not Greg Jennings in the 2nd round. Moreover, they could’ve flipped picks and taken Santonio Holmes in the 1st round and Maurice Jones-Drew in the second. Point is, they missed on better talent at the positions they drafted. That’s not good.
In 2007, they took Meriweather, but they had needs at ILB (which they had to address in 2008) and DB. They could’ve taken Harris, to whom they were linked. But, they passed on Eric Weddle…D’Oh!!! Again, a superior talent at the position they drafted was left on the board.
I have no problem with Mayo…solid pick and they got some extra picks by trading down. Terence Wheatley?!? Lowery had a better season and TW is a small CB. He’s in a position that takes time to develop. However, fwiw, Chevis Jackson on Atlanta had a far more productive rookie season and he was taken AFTER Wheatley in the 2nd round.
To review, only in 2008 did the Pats have a successful no. 1 pick. Because VG has been a bust, so far, fans tend to dwell on it. But, the reality is that the Pats’ drafts in the first 2 rounds, where every team expects starters, was weak and they’ve been out-done by their top rivals: Pittsburgh, San Diego and Indy, all of whom also draft at the bottom.
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Sack,
The reality is that every year the Pats are legitimate SB contenders even last year, and we are not.
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ramble914 says:
And let’s not forget, the jury is still out on VG. He could very well turn out to be a solid or better player.
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Pete57 says:
Cabras, there are many reasons why the Pats have been better than the Jets:
First- Bill Belicheck. He is the best coach in the game. And no one takes mediocre talent and makes them players like BB does. Compare BB to our coaches: Herm and Mangini. There is a huge disparity there.
Second- Tom Brady. The Pats got very lucky with this one, but at the same time, they developed him.
When Bill and Tom are gone, NE will be a mediocre team at best. Those are 2 irreplaceable parts.
Until then we have to work that much harder to be better than them.
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Tish says:
Football stats are incredibly skewed and often fall apart when you analyze them. What is the basis of this
catch rate? Is it based on passes thrown to a receiver?
It is not limited to drops. Does it reflect poorly thrown balls that are over the receiver’s head or are so low that it is impossible to catch? I’ve watched Marshall enough to know that he is a dynamic weapon and his ability to get open and make the catch are very good. If these stats classify him as mediocre, then I question the stats. What I do not question is the fact that he is a jerk; the only conclusion that can be made for someone who repeats the egregious offense of domestic violence. -
Thanks Bent I hope that alot of the cap hit for Sanchez would be next year. It looks like even if we do not have an uncapped year we will have a lot of cap space. I would go with like 18-20 million next year for the cap hit so the last three years could be a manageable 8 million a year.
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Bent’s right about Mark Sanchez’ contract simply not including any of the incentives or anything else right now since technically he has to earn them next year or in the years thereafter. I didn’t write anything big up attempting to explain the contract since my assumption is the entire contract will likely be leaked within the next week or two. The only information thus far is that he has 28 million in guarantees and that he should earn 32.5 in his first three years. If I had to take a wild guess, assuming this is a straight 5 year deal, the Jets will pick up an option of sorts on Sanchez early next year which will cost the Jets 11.145 million, which is guaranteed to him. He will have one or two huge incentive based payments which will be awarded if he plays in something like 35% of the offensive snaps and the Jets improve in some category and he is on the roster on March 1st. Those should total 8.9 million and this is considered guaranteed. As soon as he attains those incentives he will most likely trigger big incentive clauses in the contract. Those will add workout bonuses (250K-500K per season) and increase his base pay in each year. That would probably total 8 millionish in year 2 and 3, of which a portion is guaranteed. When attained his salary will likely increase as well in those final two years by a large amount, none of which, or a limited amount of which, is guaranteed. If Sanchez was to get injured the only actual guarantee would be the 19.1 million listed on the site, as he would never earn the incentives that he is “guaranteed” to earn right now.
As for the original topic, I’m kind of lukewarm on Marshall. I think this could be another Javon Walker who is the product of the system and QB. I dont think he has proven to be an elite scorer or long threat yet either. He’s more of a big possession type that doesnt have the yard after catch or nose for the endzone that an Anquan Boldin has. Plus he is a nutcase. That said, I’d dig a bit deeper into those stats before writing him off. For instance you used Andre Johnson as a comparison. In Johnsons 2nd and 3rd years in the NFL his DYAR was 32 (behind Justin McCareins) and catchrate was 58%. In year 3 he was 82nd in DYAR and a 55% catchrate. It really was not until 2007 that he really broke through using those metrics.
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very impressive work, sack.
you make a very compelling case. -
Cabras,
To echo Pete57, Brady is on the short list of greatest QBs of all-time. That makes them a legitimate Super Bowl contender every year. Plus, Belichick has put in a system that makes the Pats formidable if any key player is injured. Like when Phil Jackson’s Bulls went deep in the playoffs without Michael Jordan. Also, because of the Pats success, they can attract great veteran players willing to play for less than market value in order to try for a Super Bowl ring.
Also, I don’t think the Pats will be weak for the forseeable future, even when Brady retires. I think they’re like the Steelers of the 70s. After 40 years of lousy football, Chuck Noll built a dynasty that has endured until today (6 losing seasons since 1972…remarkable). Belichick could go from HC to GM to head of Football Operations. His disciples can easily continue the legacy. The Jets have to match that type of continued excellence. I may be wrong, but I think the Pats will be a threat to win the AFC East for the next 20 years. There will be a day of decline (like with the 49ers and Raiders), but it ain’t happening any time soon.
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Jonathan,
Thanks. My examples were meant to show that drafting is an inexact science and even a great FO, like the Pats, can make mistakes. It’s a myth that the Pats do everything better. IMO, San Diego gets a lot more from the draft, but Norv Turner?!? All components have to be there for a successful franchise and the Pats can make up for weak drafts with their strong infrastructure.
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Sack,
Can’t compare football to basketball, 22 guys start in football, and injuries are more common, home court, etc.
I think it starts w/Kraft, pretty handsoff, let’s football guys make decisions
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Cabras,
Kraft lost Parcells because he wasn’t hands off. He learned his lesson after mishandling Parcells. I think all successful sports organizations can be compared. It’s usually a combination of ownership committed to winning, a strong front office infrastructure and an excellent tactical coach, with a little luck thrown in.
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Sack, the one problem I see with the Pats is that they have not drafted well these last few years. They have lived off their drafts in the early part of the decade that brought them their defensive line. Their drafts since then have not been much. Mayo could be very good, but thats pretty much the easiest position to draft at. Meriweather is so-so. Maroney isnt long for the league. They have survived by making great trades/free agent signings and because they have a great head coach that allows them to keep their high priced guys by finding ways to fill in for the Asante Samuels of the world who would put the team in bad cap shape. If you take out the Randy Moss move New England is a team that really comes back to the pack even with Brady. Those moves come along once in a lifetime not every year and Belichick is a once in a lifetime coach. Thus far his coaching tree has been garbage.
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NYJ09 says:
Bassett who do you suggest they get because you’re coming out with dirt on every guy there are rumors with him going to the Jets. Marshall and Plax have problems, Edwards has no focus and is more interest in modelling, Boldin will command a fat check. I get what you’re saying and a lot of that is true but they have to get somebody, don’t you think?
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JesusRevis says:
Brandon Marshall is an eite talent at receiver, whether football outsiders says so or not. I’m not saying the Jets should sell the farm to get him, but he is definitely a top WR.
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Bryan Thomas, Brad Smith, 2nd or 3rd rd pick should do.
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igs, his issues have been related to two women and after all that happened with the first she apparently expected him to propose to her. the second one he’s already engaged too. that doesn’t clear him but just adds the ‘cha-ching’ factor which Marshall has pointed out.
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NYJ, it was 3 women. He got caught in the middle of a fist fight with his last fiance. He terrorized one women with a rock. And he repeatedly assaulted his 1st love on a regular basis.
Also, you don’t know what she was thinking. Plenty of battered women stayed with their abusive spouses and frequently come back to them. In fact it’s the norm and not the exception. Don’t use that to throw shade on the allegations. Don’t re-victimize the victim.
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igs, there are many ways to look at it but either way marshall did make mistakes which he has admitted to and now he’s gotta move on.. no need to get into all the details of what happened but we can both agree that Marshall did some bad stuff.. having said that he’s a great football player and if you can go out and get him then the Jets should, and then they’ll just have to hope he doesn’t make the same mistakes again
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The Green Lantern #80 says:
NYJ dont argue with him about this he keeps trying to bring down Marshall for his mistakes but keeps promoting a crackhead like matt jones.
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That guy at the top said it the best though…
“Oh no hes not as good as the best WR in the league, lets not get him!”
lol guys we all know Cotchery is a good receiver but if we went off stats he could look average. -
asdf says:
JesusRevis is right. Anyone who has seen Brandon Marshall play knows he is an excellent receiver and a nightmare to defend. End of story.
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Green, it’s sad to hear you say that on a number of levels. 1st, as a man, it’s just kind of despicable to hear you say that my goal is just to bring Marshall down. I’m pointing out a serious consideration on why I wouldn’t want this guy on the team. You need to get in touch with your inner man. Because right now you talking like a straight up BOY.
In addition it’s just sad that you consider a guy that repeatedly beats up women to be less of a danger than a guy who has sniffed some coke and had a beer on a golf course. Like I said earlier, if it was your mother, your sister, or your daughter, I’m sure you wouldn’t want the guy on the team. You wouldn’t want to have route for a guy that’s a genuine bad guy. Matt Jones on the other hand, well that’s quite a victimless crime now isn’t it?
Also, where has it been reported that Marshall has sought serious treatment for his behavior and made a formal apology to any of these women, to the fans, to his team, and to the NFL.? WHere’d you read this at? Can I have the link?
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I would agree igs, there is no doubt that Matt Jones would be way less of a risk. Once a wife beater always a wife beater………..
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Le’Sean- I don’t have anyone in mind. Not everything needs to be fixed this year, and making a panic move to fill a hole can easily set you back as a team. I’m not adverse to Burress, who would be a 1-year stopgap and who would not require the team gives up compensation, but if Ryan doesn’t want a knucklehead on the team, I’m fine with that, too.
It’s not the statistics that are the problem. Using DYAR or DVOA, you get guys like Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, Calvin Johnson and Reggie Wayne at the top of the league. Marshall doesn’t belong anywhere near that group, not based on his past performance. If you want to say he has the physical skill to eventually join that group, that’s fine, but there’s nothing based on his past history to demonstrate that he will come close to those guys.
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Thanks Jeff, good to see that everyone here’s not a cave man.
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Oh no hes not as good as the best WR in the league, lets not get him!
The guy is a young Terrell Owens minus the whole ruining the locker room thing. Depending on the cost, you don’t simply dismiss the chance to get a guy like this.